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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Knicks Morning News (2014.08.21)

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Basketball: Irving Shines in U.S. Win (Thu, 21 Aug 2014 04:49:17 GMT)
    Kyrie Irving, starting in place of Derrick Rose, made all five of his shots and scored 12 points, and the United States’ national team beat the Dominican Republic, 105-62, in an exhibition game at Madison Square Garden.

  • [New York Times] AP Source: Lynx’s Moore Has Won WNBA MVP Award (Thu, 21 Aug 2014 03:44:55 GMT)
    Minnesota’s Maya Moore has won the WNBA most valuable player award, a person close to the situation told The Associated Press on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] US Routs Dominicans in Exhibition as Rose Rests (Thu, 21 Aug 2014 02:17:59 GMT)
    Derrick Rose heard the fans chanting his name, and yes, he would’ve loved to give them what they wanted.

  • 35 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2014.08.21)

    1. mcliff05

      Anyone else think its completely reckless for Thibs, who is on Coach K’s staff, to let Rose even think about playing for USA? Especially with the East ripe for Chicago to take it over. If I was a Bulls fan I’d be sacraficing many goats to the ACL gods.

    2. Cole Aldrich's Second Cousin's Best Friend's Boyfriend

      They’re going to play what, five games? And he’s not going to be playing 40 MPG. It’s like a preseason game.

    3. lavor postell

      If Rose can’t get through what will probably be 5-7 games, dishing the ball to some of the best offensive players in the world on a light minutes load then I doubt it’s because Thibs pushed him too hard. It’ll be because after having two season-ending injuries to each knee, he has become a major injury concern.

    4. thenamestsam

      Plus it’s not like he wouldn’t be playing somewhere. If he wasn’t in Team USA practices he’d be doing private workouts somewhere. If the doctors say he’s ready to go I can’t see why it would hurt. Honestly, if anything I just think it’s silly for the USA to have a guy on the team who may have to sit out half the games due to injury concerns. In such a short time frame I think one of the most important things is building on-court chemistry among the players and I don’t think Rose is enough better than Wall to justify his presence if he can’t be relied upon.

    5. BigBlueAL

      The FIBA World Cup schedule is actually pretty rough. 5 pool games in 6 days then after a couple of days off USA would most likely play 4 elimination games in 7 days.

    6. Cole Aldrich's Second Cousin's Best Friend's Boyfriend

      What if Cousins, Gay and DeRozan end up playing big minutes?

      4th place finish?

    7. EB

      Thanasis is supposedly going to Westchester without signing with the Knicks. That’s probably the best outcome for us. He gets to play and learn the system and we don’t give up his draft rights.

    8. dtrickey

      As someone who will not be wishing the US well in the WC (seeing as we will likely have to match up against them in the elimination stages), I personally hope Rose gets as much rest as possible ha ha.

      From another viewpoint though, considering he has plaid sweet FA competitive basketball over the last 2 seasons, I would have thought a run in the WC would be good for Rose. Considering Irving or Curry are likely to also be on the final squad, Rose wouldn’t be playing ridiculous minutes anyway. I think the point was made that it is basically just like playing pre-season. I don’t see much point in wrapping him in cotton wool. If he’s been medically cleared for full activities, get some run in his legs. Obviously you probably need to monitor him a little, but there is no substitute for competitive play for building match fitness.

    9. Z-man

      Hey, did anyone notice that we got 2 guys from last year’s Mavs who each had more Wins Produced per 48 minutes (Calderon: .146, Dalembert: .192) than Dirk (.126) did? And that Calderon produced 7.48 wins while Dirk only produced 6.92 wins, even though Dirk played more minutes?

      Well, clearly, Dirk’s a bum. Despite shooting 50%-40%-90% at a TS% of .603 and an eFG of 55%, clearly he was riding the coattails of Calderon and Marion. Man was Cuban dumb to let those guys go. He should have ditched Dirk by trading him for , I dunno, Kenneth Faried.

      Repeat after me: VOLUME SHOOTING IS OVERRATED.

    10. DRed

      Shooting with a TS of .603 is not volume shooting. Taking a lot of shots at league average or thereabouts efficiency is overrated. Taking lots of shots and making lots of them is really good.

    11. Z-man

      Not according to WP. WS is slightly more deferential. Both are seriously flawed, probably more flawed than PER.

    12. DRed

      How many power forwards averaging .7 offensive boards per 48 do you think have an above average WP score?

    13. Z-man

      See, that’s where WP is limited. If a player is doing most of the shooting, and most of those shots are coming from the perimeter, who cares whether he is a forward or guard? It’s clearly not his job to get offensive rebounds when he’s shooting. That job is usually left to less talented shooters. WP doesn’t rally care about that.

      Imagine the game if the winner was decided on WP score for the game rather than most points scored. Or if players were paid based on their WP scores, regardless of whether their team won or lost. I wonder how different the game would look? Probably there would be a 10000% increase in 24-second violations (these are turnovers that don’t get charged to a particular player, so better not to shoot than to put up any shot other than a dunk.) But what the hell, screw the players who can shoot reasonably well from beyond 10 feet. Dunk or bust!

      Oh, but what about those poor guys who rely on offensive rebounds because they have hardly any chance of making a shot beyond 15 feet? If the Dirks (and Melos) of the world limited themselves to dunks and putbacks, what would be left for them?

    14. Z-man

      All kidding aside, the larger point is that it is useless to compare low-usage players with high-usage players, period. We don’t really do that in other sports. “Role” is blurred across positional lines in basketball more than in any other sport. You can have a rebounding-defensive minded shooting guard, and you can have a volume 3-pt shooting center. There is some blurring in baseball, but you don’t compare pitchers to catchers, ever. In hockey, you don’t compare goalies to centers, ever. How can you possibly compare Dirk Nowitski to Brandon Wright in terms of who was more responsible for producing a win? Or Horace Grant to Michael Jordan?

    15. DRed

      That’s not where WP is limited. That’s where your rigid refusal to understand what WP is telling you is limited. It’s not the stat that’s the problem. WP is the end result of a mathematical equation. It doesn’t know that Dirk plays more like 3 on offense. We know that, though.

      This is why the Mavs were smart to sign a guy like Aminu. Even if he never learns how to shoot, he’s a very good rebounder for a guy who can defend opposing 3s. Plus, since the league is more apt to pay for points, you can get him for cheap. So if you have a front court of Dirk, Tyson and Aminu they compliment each other. You chose to interpret that as Tyson and Aminu being free to get garbage points because of Dirk, but it’s just as accurate that Dirk is free to sit on the perimeter because he has guys like Tyson and Aminu to get the ball back.

    16. nicos

      No, that is where WP is limited- because it’s absolutely saying that Dirk is free to sit on the perimeter because of Chandler/Aminu (both of whom were far more productive than Dirk according to WP/48) rather than the other way around. Basically if you’re a big that doesn’t rebound you’re never going to look very good according to WP even if you’re one of the all-time great scorers like Dirk or early Amar’e. Bosh put up a .597 TS% on decent usage with relatively low turnovers and just as importantly played really solid rotate and recover defense but Aminu who was woeful on offense (.516 TS and 13.7 TO%) produced more than TWICE the wins per 48 because he was a very good rebounding 3. That’s not counter-intuitive, that’s just wrong. You want to tell me Chris Bosh isn’t worth a max contract, okay but WP claims he was solidly below average last year- just .78 WP/48. Is Aminu a real bargain at the league minimum (and is WP a good way of sniffing out those bargains)? Sure, but WP isn’t claiming Aminu is a better bargain than Dirk, it’s claiming he’s a more productive player period and that’s crazy.

    17. Z-man

      But don’t you see, you are essentially agreeing with me? You are saying that the stat is relative to the role, to be used for matching purposes only. That’s EXACTLY what I am saying, i.e. you DON’T use it to compare players having different roles, for example, to compare Jordan to Grant, or Anthony to Chandler. (I also believe that the high-usage role is harder and more vital, and that good shooters are way more valuable than good offensive rebounders; we’ll probably never agree there.)

      In the example above, Aminu should be compared to other low usage forwards who rarely shoot 3′s:

      http://bkref.com/tiny/3QA4x

      Whereas Dirk should be compared to high-usage forwards who shoot 3′s regularly (and probably lots of long 2′s as well)

      http://bkref.com/tiny/7PSN2

    18. DRed

      It’s cool that you believe high usage players are more valuable, but you need to show me why. If you have a good high usage PF like Dirk who gets ORBs like a short PG that costs your team points. That makes him less effective than his scoring numbers make him look.

    19. nicos

      Okay I looked up players who had a TS% above 57%, a usage of over 30%, and played over 50 games (lots of Jordan and Karl Malone)- it’s happened 50 times and all but 2 of those players teams were above .500 and made the playoffs (and one of the teams that didn’t was the 84 Knicks when BK only played 55 games). Then I checked teams with guys who had an offensive rebound% over 15% and played over 25 minutes a night for more than 50 games. It happened 37 times (lots of Moses and Rodman) with 10 of those teams finishing below .500, nine of those missing the playoffs. Less than a third of those teams won 50 or more games (just 10) while about 70% of teams with a high volume efficient scorer did. If offensive rebounding is so much more important than volume scoring shouldn’t those number be reversed? I mean what about all of those extra possessions??

    20. Brian Cronin

      Wow, gotta give it up to the Wolves. They’re going to get Thaddeus Young just for a future first rounder and expiring contracts. I thought for sure that they’d have to give up Bennett. The Love deal now looks even better than it did before and it already looked good. For a guy they were losing no matter what, they’re getting Wiggins, Bennett and Thaddeus Young. That’s good enough that they should still be able to compete for the playoffs this season (they likely won’t make it, but they’ll be competitive).

    21. Z-man

      Interesting work, nicos.

      DRed, I brought up “The Jordan Rules” in the debate about Jordan vs. Grant. Here is documentation that a team’s entire defensive system was predicated on limiting a single player on the offensive end. That player happened to be the greatest high-volume scorer of the modern era. It is my belief that this extreme case is reflective of defensive philosophy in basketball whenever an explosive scorer is involved, i.e. a guy that will likely go off for 40+ relatively efficient points if team defense doesn’t make limiting him a primary focus. Sure, there is probably discussion about “keeping player x off the offensive boards” or “let’s box out and limit them to one attempt” but do you really think it is nearly as much of a point of emphasis as “let’s keep Melo on the perimeter and force him into contested shots by showing double any time he heads to the middle.”? How likely are you to hear a coach tell a guy guarding Melo to “help out on Chandler, when he goes to the boards, leave Melo and help box him out.”

      This is not to say that low-volume offensive rebounders are worthless. I think they are very important, but far less so on the offensive end than WP gives them credit for. Take Rodman, Ben Wallace and Chandler. IMHO, their HOF value was on the DEFENSIVE end, and while they have high WP scores, it is mainly due to their contributions on the offensive end. It didn’t matter that they were limited offensively as much as it does for, say, Faried because they were All-NBA on defense.

    22. Z-man

      Brian, I agree it’s an OK haul, but I wonder whether they could have squeezed more out of the Cavs if they played hardball. Seems like the Cavs were pretty desperate to get Love. I guess it all depends on how good Wiggins becomes in the next 3 years, and on Bennett not being a complete stiff. I don’t really consider Young part of the deal. They probably could have done that deal even without the Love deal, no?

    23. Z-man

      DRed, explain this to me. here’s 3 players that won DPOY and were the starting C’s on championship teams in their primes. Olajuwan 1989-90 (led league in DReb%) Wallace (2002-03, his best rebounding year) and Chandler (DPOY year, led league in TS%)

      http://bkref.com/tiny/FI8zQ

      Olajuwan .239 (20th)
      Wallace .375 (1st)
      Chandler .303 (3rd)

      WP declares that Wallace (by a huge margin) and Chandler (by a significant margin) were more productive players than Olajuwan.

      In Hakeem’s MVP season (he also won DPOY and finals MVP) he had a WP48 of .202, putting him WAY down the list, below guys like Charles Oakley, Buck Williams, Dikembe Mutombo, and the immortals Ed Pinkney, Kurt Rambis and Popeye Jones. Case closed.

      Just think, if he had only shot less, he could have been close to as good as those guys!

      I’m glad that BSG (with emphasis on BS) finally exposed how wack their beloved WP48 truly is.

    24. DRed

      Okay I looked up players who had a TS% above 57%, a usage of over 30%, and played over 50 games (lots of Jordan and Karl Malone)- it’s happened 50 times and all but 2 of those players teams were above .500 and made the playoffs (and one of the teams that didn’t was the 84 Knicks when BK only played 55 games). Then I checked teams with guys who had an offensive rebound% over 15% and played over 25 minutes a night for more than 50 games. It happened 37 times (lots of Moses and Rodman) with 10 of those teams finishing below .500, nine of those missing the playoffs. Less than a third of those teams won 50 or more games (just 10) while about 70% of teams with a high volume efficient scorer did. If offensive rebounding is so much more important than volume scoring shouldn’t those number be reversed? I mean what about all of those extra possessions

      High volume, efficient scoring is great. High volume, not very efficient scoring is not great. Increasing scoring efficiency will increase your WP more than increasing your offensive rebounding will. Offensive rebounds are valuable because they give your team another shot to put the ball in the basket. Putting the ball in the basket is a good thing.

    25. DRed

      WP declares that Wallace (by a huge margin) and Chandler (by a significant margin) were more productive players than Olajuwan.

      In Hakeem’s MVP season (he also won DPOY and finals MVP) he had a WP48 of .202, putting him WAY down the list, below guys like Charles Oakley, Buck Williams, Dikembe Mutombo, and the immortals Ed Pinkney, Kurt Rambis and Popeye Jones. Case closed.

      I don’t understand what you think this proves.

    26. er

      I don’t really consider Young part of the deal. They probably could have done that deal even without the Love deal, no?

      Right….But they wouldnt have gotten another 4 with Love on the team

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