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Sunday, December 21, 2014

Knicks Morning News (2014.07.18)

  • [New York Daily News] Exclusive! Phil Jackson talks about his return to Knicks in updated autobiography (Fri, 18 Jul 2014 03:21:12 GMT)
    There’s a part of me that has always longed to lead a simpler, more ascetic life. But I’ve had to balance that with the demands of constantly being in the public eye.

  • [New York Daily News] Tim Howard tweets pic of him in Knicks jersey, asks if team has salary cap space (Fri, 18 Jul 2014 00:55:50 GMT)
    The Knicks borught back scoring machine Carmelo Anthony this offseason but what about their defense? At least one guy who knows plenty about it threw his hat in the ring Thursday.

  • [New York Post] Knicks’ GM Steve Mills: We were confident Carmelo would stay (Fri, 18 Jul 2014 02:10:26 -0400)
    Last weekend, Carmelo Anthony re-signed with the Knicks, but only after experiencing free agency for the first time in his career. Nevertheless, the organization never seriously feared losing Anthony. "Carmelo…

  • [New York Times] Wiggins, Cavs Hounded by Love Trade Rumors (Fri, 18 Jul 2014 05:03:59 GMT)
    Andrew Wiggins came to summer league to get an early education on the NBA game, from playing against better competition to learning about what his new coach with the Cleveland Cavaliers will demand of him as a pro.

  • [New York Times] Lakers Acquire Boozer (Fri, 18 Jul 2014 04:35:09 GMT)
    The Los Angeles Lakers acquired the two-time All-Star Carlos Boozer on amnesty waivers, the team announced.

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Pro Basketball: Lakers Acquire Boozer (Fri, 18 Jul 2014 04:29:22 GMT)
    The Los Angeles Lakers acquired the two-time All-Star Carlos Boozer on amnesty waivers, the team announced.

  • [New York Times] National Basketball Association Roundup (Fri, 18 Jul 2014 00:18:55 GMT)
    Carlos Boozer is trading places with Pau Gasol.

  • 77 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2014.07.18)

    1. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      Z-man,

      A bad player is a bad player always. With Felton, you have 23,000 minutes of data that show that he is a bad player. Bargnani would be better at 5 MPG than at 40, but only because, cumulatively, his possessions are bad possessions.

      Unless you believe that there’s a precipitous drop-off in production after a certain minutes threshold, every half-court possession begins the same way, and they generally end in similar ways. Maybe situationally some are different, like at the end of a close game, but I would say that there’s very little qualitative difference between most possessions.

    2. thenamestsam

      Maybe situationally some are different, like at the end of a close game, but I would say that there’s very little qualitative difference between most possessions.

      Did you determine that with the eye test?

    3. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      The “eye test” refers to the ability to determine an individual player’s value

      I recognize that I’m not being very scientific here (what else is new; right, Ted?), but something tells me that “point guard regularly dribbles ball to the top of the arc” is easier to visually determine than “has a quick first step” or “shoots an above-average step-back set shot.” I would hesitate to confuse my broad assumption about the game of basketball with, say, ruruland’s incessant (and patently wrong) sophistry.

      By the way, I saw Wiggins block the heck out of Kyle Anderson in the Spurs highlights the other day. It’s going to happen a lot. Dude doesn’t elevate. Still, watching Kyle Anderson pass is amazing, and given how many minutes he’s playing in summer league, I think you can bet on him for 20 mpg during the regular season. Spurs are going to be fresh (again) in the playoffs.

    4. DRed

      Felton’s pretty much an average point guard who can’t shoot. He’ll get you assists, some rebounds, some steals and he protects the ball well. He also sucks on D, but at least some of that is probably down to a certain goateed idiot and his defensive ‘system’. So at least for next year he’s an adequate backup.

    5. Farfa

      By the way, I saw Wiggins block the heck out of Kyle Anderson in the Spurs highlights the other day. It’s going to happen a lot. Dude doesn’t elevate.

      This could be an advantage for Kyle Anderson, given how smart he seems. The fact that everyone and his mom knows he’s slow and flat-footed will probably make every athletic wannabe shotblocker giddy at the thought of going against Kyle. He will pump-fake and drive by, making a perfect bounce pass to a streaking Aron Baynes in the process. I love guys who are aware of their limitations (and WP48, WS48 and company do, too).

    6. Farfa

      Felton’s pretty much an average point guard who can’t shoot.

      A poor man’s Eric Snow! Blech.

    7. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      Ten years later, it’s amazing — mindblowing — that he was the #5 pick in the draft.

      Note to NCAA prospects: go to the Final Four, win at the draft.

      Sean May is even worse. How many championship UNC players did the Bobcats draft back in the mid-Aughts?

    8. Owen

      Saw a Kyle Anderson interview on True Hoop, love that kid. He was full of praise for how beautifully the Spurs play the game of basketball. I will go on record saying he will outperform Andrew Wiggins this year, at least on the advanced metrics I care about.

      If I were the Cavs i would trade Wiggins as fast as humanly possible….

      Trading Wiggins for Love is the biggest no brainer move since the Chris Paul trade….

    9. DRed

      Yeah, I’d be rushing to dump Wiggins off. I thought he was a bad first pick, but reading some articles about how “high level NBA executives” think the Cavs would be foolish to deal him perhaps it wasn’t. He’s pretty clearly very valuable as a trade asset, and if the Cavs can turn him and a bum like Waiters into Kevin Love that’s a great pick.

    10. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      If Kevin Love entered the 2014 draft at his current salary, I think he’d be the #1 pick. If that’s the case, you make the trade. If they’re really looking forward to scratching off the Wiggins lottery ticket, you keep the pick.

      I don’t know about you guys, but I tend to walk past the scratch-off machine at the supermarket without much of a problem.

    11. chrisk06811

      Trading Wiggins for Love is the biggest no brainer since Toronto unloaded Bargnani for 2 picks!!

    12. Bruno Almeida

      Kevin Love for Wiggins is a no-brainer, Love would be a perfect sidekick for LBJ… Cleveland would be downright terrfying with both, specially if LBJ’s training regime and professionalism rubs off on Kyrie.

      But I don’t think Wiggins will be a terrible NBA player, he just won’t be the offensive machine people expected him to be when his high school youtube videos came up. There’s a lot of value on a potential elite defender in the NBA who can score 15 a game and is super athletic, even if he never turns out to be the prototypical #1 pick people expected him to be.

      Cleveland has been gifted the best opportunity a franchise has had in the last 4 years, and it’s all because Golden State is incredibly stupid.

    13. Brian Cronin

      I think they should definitely do it even if they think Wiggins one day will be better than Love. Right now Love is one of the ten best players in the game. You already have the best player in the game. Their games are very complimentary. Plus you have another pretty good player. This move makes them huge favorites to win the East (this year and likely the next few years). Just do the freakin’ trade!

      Vegas has the over under on Cav wins at 53.5. They’ve already said that if the Cavs get Love the over under will be 63.5.

      So, on that note, as a Knick fan, come on Cavs, don’t trade Wiggins!

    14. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      So who would it be?

      Irving
      Literally Anyone
      LeBron
      Love
      Varejao

      That’s a 60-win team in the East if Andy puts up the rebounding numbers he’s expected to.

    15. Owen

      I mean exactly, it’s not like Andy is chopped liver as a low usage center. He is the perfect player to pair with Love and Lebron. Moves really well off the ball, doesn’t need the ball otherwise, strong defender.

      That’s an amazing frontcourt really….

    16. DRed

      It’s an amazing frontcourt until Varejao gets hurt again. They should just keep him in storage until the playoffs.

    17. chrisk06811

      I think it would be great if Cle trades Wiggins for Love, and then Love announces his long term max extension on a 1 hour TV special with Lebron at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, and with Kyree dressed as uncle drew. Beach Boys optional….I dont’ give a shit there.

    18. Farfa

      Irving
      Literally Anyone
      LeBron
      Love
      Varejao

      Don’t overlook Dellavedova in the “Literally anyone” spot.

      Their biggest problem would surely be interior defense (Varejao is a good defender but we know he’s injury prone and not much of a goalie). If they could snag Biyombo from Charlotte this could be a scary team. Yes, I said Biyombo. With James and Love around, even Bismack could score here and there by virtue of being alone under the rim.

    19. thenamestsam

      I know everybody on here hates Waiters, and his chuckery has definitely been undeniable his first couple years, but I think there’s a chance he can be pretty good on this team. If Lebron and Blatt can get him to stay in his lane a little bit more he did shoot 37% on a pretty high volume of 3s last year. That’s valuable next to Lebron, Love and Kyrie if you can just cut out some (a lot) of the other stuff. And he’s still young enough that those kind of lessons might sink in. He might not be a total lost cause.

      That team definitely looks ultra high powered on offense, but it remains to be seen whether they can defend enough to be a real contender. Lebron seemingly lost a step on that end last year, Varejao is older and injury prone, and the rest of the roster looks really bad on that end. But yeah, that offense. Lebron and Love playing 2 on 5 would probably put up some decent offensive numbers.

    20. Brian Cronin

      Oh yeah, I think Waiters is not as bad as he looked his rookie year and when Irving was out he looked downright good, so I think there is definitely some hope there that if Irving has to change his game to match Lebron (and possibly Love) then that bodes well for Waiters, too, as both he and Irvin’s biggest problem has been ballhoggery. If they become souped up versions of Mario Chalmers, that could really help them.

    21. EB

      @10 But we know Kevin Love is Kevin Love. Wiggins could be anything! He could even be Kevin Love, you know how much the Cavs want one of those!

    22. iserp

      It’s an amazing frontcourt until Varejao gets hurt again. They should just keep him in storage until the playoffs.

      I would be very worried. Varejao has missed serious time last 4 seasons. Maybe it would be safer to use the Wiggins chip to get a much reliable center, although there aren’t many. Sanders?

      One thing i am not convinced is the supposed fit of Love with LeBron. LeBron is already a great rebounder, an efficient scorer and gives good assists, which are also the main strengths of Love. Would not fit better someone who is a good defender? Love is not a great defender. Sure they can play together, but i don’t think it is going to be better than the sum of its parts.

    23. ess-dog

      I’m surprised we didn’t even look into Fredette. I could see him playing both guard spots in the triangle. I guess we’re going to roll with Shannon Brown.

      Missed last night’s summer league action. Did anyone show up big?

    24. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      I think the Cavs would be better with Andre Drummond, but that’s probably not happening. Love is a good second option. And he’s so very much better than any of the rookie-contract players they have. Combined.

    25. Farfa

      Maybe it would be safer to use the Wiggins chip to get a much reliable center, although there aren’t many. Sanders?

      This is a thought that I’ve also seen on SB Nation. While I agree that getting an interior defender should be priority #1 for the Cavs, I wouldn’t touch Sanders, which come with a 11 $million contract attached for the next 4 years and a long issue of personal problems, with a 30-foot pole UNLESS LeBron is totally ok with getting him AND Milwaukee is ok with just a Bennett-Thompson for Sanders swap.

      Also, last year Sanders went for a WP48 nosedive: from .208 to .092, so from wonderful to less than average. Ouch.

    26. DRed

      Missed last night’s summer league action. Did anyone show up big?

      Shane Larkin looked good. Not great on offense, but he moved the ball well and was super disruptive on defense (5 steals). Timmy did his thing, scoring well and managing 1 assist to go along with his 17 shots.

      The offense was horrible in the 1st quarter-lots of turnovers and some confused looking play, but they settled down and were much better the rest of the game. It’s still weird to see lots of movement. And I think the summerknicks are probably better on defense than the 2013 Knicks were. Can’t read too much into the summer league, but it’s at least a promising start for Derek Fisher.

    27. Farfa

      I think the Cavs would be better with Andre Drummond, but that’s probably not happening.

      Hey, but I hear superb defender Josh Smith is on the trading block!

    28. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      If LeBron loses a half step, he’s still a full step ahead of most of the league. The guy is a transcendent defender and will be until he retires.

    29. lavor postell

      Getting Love is definitely an upgrade for them and I think he’d fit perfectly well on offense with Lebron. I just don’t know if the Cavs would ever have enough defense to win a title, or at the very least would have to use the full MLE next year to find that big man to anchor the defense. Offensively Lebron, Love and Irving will put up some video game numbers once they figure out how to play with each other, but Irving is a huge negative defensively and Love is fine a man defender, but sucks at making proper rotations in help defense, much like Melo. Lebron is 30 and he can’t be superman for 35-40 minutes per night anymore. I think trading for Love is an awesome move that elevates them to definite favorite in the East, but it also gives them very little cap flex moving forward and will cost them draft picks to address their depth and defensive issues. It’s worth the gambit, but it’s not a slam dunk championship move IMO.

    30. lavor postell

      If LeBron loses a half step, he’s still a full step ahead of most of the league. The guy is a transcendent defender and will be until he retires.

      He’s great defensively now in taking care of his assignment, but he’s not the help defender last season that he had been previously. I think it’s a lot harder for him to crash down on a driver and recover out to his man than it used to be. That affects a lot of things when Irving is going to be your starting point.

    31. lavor postell

      @DRed

      Did you notice that in the first half when we ran the two man game on the weak side they were very aggressive on overplaying the handoff. In the second half we abused them going back door on this 4-5 times within the first 5 minutes. In game adjustments apparently may be a thing this year.

    32. Farfa

      It’s worth the gambit, but it’s not a slam dunk championship move IMO.

      Nope, but it’s the best move they can make. List of players who fit better than Love on offense: none (Dirk Nowitzki?). List of players who fit better than Love considering both offense and defense: Anthony Davis, Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol.

      Since neither Davis, nor Noah, nor Gasol are on the market this is a super no-brainer. Not a slam dunk championship, but a 90% probability (barring injuries – and not to Varejao, it is a given that he’ll play around 55 games) to go to the Finals. From there, you need only 4 wins, and who knows. Cleveland has never won anything, they have to do this.

      EDIT: oh hey, I forgot Durant and Ibaka. Well, they too are not available.

    33. Hubert

      That grantland round table was hilarious. Simmons’ logic is very silly:

      Wait, see how great wiggins can be w LeBron, you can always make that trade later.

      I think Wiggins’ value is the highest it will ever be right now and in 5 years we’re going to laugh at the idea that he was traded for love. Not saying he’ll be a bust, just a good player whose value is inflated by hype.

      I’m praying the wolves try toplay this season out and compete with Love. The team who should be waiting is them. Let the cavs be on the hook for wiggins play. Come February, when wiggins is shooting as poorly as his history suggests he will, you can probably get more than wiggins. But now you’re being forced to value wiggins as some special prospect just bc he went #1.

    34. DRed

      Wiggins was the #1 overall pick. He could shoot 17% from the field this season and there would be teams lining up to take a flier on him next year. After all, you don’t get picked #1 for no reason.

    35. Farfa

      Ouch! I forgot about LaVine! Yes Minny, go ahead and make it happen: Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Bennett-Pekovic. Lol at spacing.

    36. Brian Cronin

      Lebron has got to keep #6, right? He made that big thing about how no one should wear #23, so it’d be weird to see him go back to #23. I just hope he doesn’t pick a new number. Although people who sell jerseys would love a reason to make the old Cav jerseys obsolete. :)

    37. yellowboy90

      I want the knicks to pick up al-frouq amino. He can be uuseful in this cutting/movement system.

    38. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      Although people who sell jerseys would love a reason to make the old Cav jerseys obsolete.

      What old jerseys? They’ve all been incinerated.

    39. yellowboy90

      Looks like ThJr has been selected to practice with the USA national team. That should be good for him.

    40. GoNyGoNYGo

      @41 – lavor postell
      Excellent read. It makes you appreciate Phil. He came in with his eyes wide open. I bet STAT doesn’t get as many days off this year.

    41. EB

      @47 Stat couldn’t physically play anymore than he did. You play him more games sooner = He gets injured sooner.

    42. ephus

      Takeaway’s from the excerpt of Big Chief Triangle’s book in the NY Daily News.

      1. Knicks have to play faster. Early offense is much more efficient than shots when the 24 second clock is winding down. Not Carmelo’s comfort zone, but he could be a great trailer hitting open 3s.

      2. Knicks have to play with more intensity. I am looking at you Andrea and JR. THJr seems to have stepped up his defensive intensity during Summer League. Chandler and Felton are gone.

      3. Knicks were divided on the court last year. BCT and Fisher are going to insist that everyone buy into the system.

      4. Dolan’s love of the Eagles —> Azoff —-> Phil Jackson comes to the Garden. [Proud Eagles fan who named the dog Henley]

      Phil Jackson had a clear eyed vision of the Knicks and their shortcomings. I believe he took the job for the challenge of building a winner, not just the money.

      I hope that this year will be a good time to be a Knick fan.

    43. tastycakes

      Trading Wiggins for Love is the biggest no brainer move since the Chris Paul trade….

      Seriously!

      I mean, how many guys *with actual NBA expereince* in the league would you NOT trade for Kevin Love today (assuming he signs a max extension, etc)? Maybe 5-10 guys?

      People are ridiculously bad at making decisions based on imperfect information. “Andrew Wiggins might be a superstar” someday is a completely idiotic argument when Kevin Love IS ACTUALLY a superstar level player today! Wiggins might be Scottie Pippen… or, way more likely, he might be Josh Howard or Jamal Mashburn (borderline all-stars chosen out of my ass). It’s not like this guy tore up the NCAA last year!

      And Kevin Love is 25, he has a LOT of prime years left in his tank assuming the injury bug doesn’t keep knocking him down (a legit concern IMO).

    44. tastycakes

      Wiggins was the #1 overall pick. He could shoot 17% from the field this season and there would be teams lining up to take a flier on him next year. After all, you don’t get picked #1 for no reason.

      Uhh… you’re basically describing Anthony Bennett and teams aren’t exactly lining up for him now.

      Wiggins’ value isn’t likely to be higher until he becomes a Top 10 player in the league, which is super not guaranteed. It basically can only go down from here, especially this year when the expectation is that he’s going to look super raw.

    45. yellowboy90

      What will Minnesota lose by waiting? Why not give it a few months to see if Wiggins is good?

    46. Robtachi

      Uhh… you’re basically describing Anthony Bennett and teams aren’t exactly lining up for him now.

      Well, no, the difference is nobody but the Cavs even thought Bennett was a #1 overall pick last year. So not the same thing.

      I’m of course not advocating the Cavs refuse to trade Wiggins for Love based on Wiggins’ “potential”. They’d be idiots not to do it. But also Cavs.

    47. ephus

      What will Minnesota lose by waiting? Why not give it a few months to see if Wiggins is good?

      The fan base could get really turned off if Love checks out mentally like Vince Carter did in Toronto. If you think you want Wiggins, I think you want him in your training camp this fall.

      Please click on my name to get to my blog. New appearance on CNBC today.

    48. GoNyGoNYGo

      What an interesting dilemma.

      On the one hand we have Kevin Love, an all-star. Not top-5 but a really strong player. A sure thing and he’s young. On the other hand we have Andrew Wiggins. He might be another LeBron and be his protege. He might be the next Michael Jordan. Or he could be the next Bargnani or Bennett. He’s probably somewhere in-between.

      Man. This is a tough choice. I would trade Wiggins to get Love but I know there’s a chance I passed up on a Mt Rushmore-NBA type transcendent player. I would hate to be the guy who made that trade! (Jim Fregosi for Nolan Ryan anyone?)

    49. DRed

      Lebron’s got a two year contract. Wiggins is 19. He wasn’t that good in college last year. Now there are really good NBA players who weren’t great as college freshman, but even if Wiggins goes on to become one, its probably not happening in the next two years. The Cavs are under a lot of pressure to build a contender now. So if you can move Wiggins/Bennett and some salary filler and picks for Love, you really have to take that shot if you’re Cleveland.

    50. yellowboy90

      The fan base could get really turned off if Love checks out mentally like Vince Carter did in Toronto. If you think you want Wiggins, I think you want him in your training camp this fall

      I get that but Minny fans has suffered this long they can wait if the team put it out there that they are not just going to give love away. I guess there is a slight chance that Wiggins comes out like gang busters and the Cavs won’t trade him but that’s unlikely.

      If I am Minny I would try to get Wiggins/picks/throw-ins and a third team to take Martin off my hands.

    51. ephus

      I think Wiggins ceiling is Scottie Pippin. More likely to become another Andre Iguadola. Might just be a Tony Allen type.

      In any event, a lot of his value is going to come from defense. This is a big reason to trade him if you are in win now mode.

      NBA referees do not allow rookies to get away with nearly as much as veterans. Even if Wiggins is a great defender right away, he is going to get a bad whistle this year.

      I would trade Wiggins/Bennett/Dellavedova (or Carrick Felix) for Love.

    52. yellowboy90

      If you are Minny though would you fill like that is enough? Also, the longer you wait the more Lebron(his people) pressures the F.O. to make a move.

    53. ephus

      Up to nine years of control over Wiggins and up to nine years of control over Bennett for one year of Kevin Love is a fair trade. Cleveland gets more out of Kevin Love than Minnesota gives up, because there is no world where Love is going to decline his ETO or extend in Minnesota, and he has strongly hinted he will decline his ETO or extend in Cleveland.

      I wonder how Cody Horn, Kevin Love’s longtime girlfriend, feels about Cleveland. She is an actress (female lead in Magic Mike) and Hollywood royalty (father is Chairman of Disney’s Board of Directors).

    54. JK47

      The trade is basically Love for Wiggins straight up, because Bennett appears to be garbage. Maybe Bennett turns it around, but, uh, probably not. Has there ever been a player who played as badly as Bennett as a rookie and still ended up having a decent career? That’s not a rhetorical question, I’m actually wondering if there is one.

      I’d ask for Wiggins, Miami’s #1 pick from next year, Memphis’ #1 pick from next year and whatever salary filler the trade needs to make it work. Considering how godawful Bennett was as a rookie I think I would rather take my chances with two other draft picks.

    55. ephus

      Bennett is the salary cap filler. Cleveland has to get over $10.8 million in outgoing salary to make the trade work. Wiggins is only $4.5 million (he could get up to $5.4 milion once he signs) right now. Bennett is due $5.6 million this year. Tristan Thompson could also make the numbers work.

    56. DRed

      Bennett’s interesting. He was so was so awful last year that its hard to imagine him ever being good. . .but at the same time he projected as having a good chance of being a servicable pro out of college. So if he is in much better shape and if he did have health issues last year, then maybe he turns into a bad draft pick instead of a Bargnani-class disaster.

    57. ess-dog

      Bennett looks pretty damn good in summer league. Really changed his body. Still doesn’t seem like the highest iq player, but he could become an Al Harrington type player. Rotten for a #1, but still a fairly good scoring 6th man.

    58. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      I know you qualified it, ess-dog, but “Al Harrington-type player” and “#1 pick” in the same breath is like… the worst thing I’ve ever heard. Except for “Andrea Bargnani,” which should be synonymous with, “NBDL bench player.”

    59. Donnie Walsh

      Allan Houston played in 79 games his rookie season. He logged over 1500 minutes. He had a TS% of .465; a PER of 9.0; and a WS48 of -.038. He shot under 30% from 3pt range, and had a reb% just a shade better than THjr’s.

      He improved a lot his 2nd year.

    60. nicos

      Iguodala and Pippen both came into the league far more skilled than Wiggins- while neither were great shooters, they were both excellent ball handlers with great court vision and solid passing skills. Wiggins might be a better athlete than either but he’s decidedly lacking in real basketball skills. He’s much more likely to develop into an elite 3 and D guy than into either of those guys who are really point forwards. The idea that he might turn into LBJ (who had far more basketball skill at 15 than Wiggins has at 19) is pure fantasy. If he plays with LBJ, maybe he winds up a smaller version of James Worthy (who was a legit hall of famer) but I can’t see him developing into the kind of play-making forwards he’s being compared to given that he’s already gotten a ton of coaching for a guy his age.

    61. The Prescient Cock Jowles

      nicos,

      I’m not trying to hate, but how the hell do you remember 1983-87 with such vivid detail?

    62. flossy

      1. Knicks have to play faster. Early offense is much more efficient than shots when the 24 second clock is winding down. Not Carmelo’s comfort zone, but he could be a great trailer hitting open 3s.

      Melo’s Nuggets teams were often top 5 in pace. I don’t think he minds running, I think Mike Woodson really just loved to play slow for some stupid reason.

    63. Unreason

      Why would Minny be satisfied with Wiggins + Bennett or + picks? GS may be crazy, but the whole league isn’t. I’d expect others to offer Minny more.

    64. Brian Cronin

      If Golden State offers Thompson, then their offer can keep Minnesota a contender for the playoffs in the west (as the immediate drop-off from Love and Kevin martin to David Lee, Thompson and Harrison Barnes is not gigantic) but from a long-term perspective I’d probably still prefer to pick up Wiggins and the first round pick, as they’d be able to control Wiggins for years while rebuilding this year and having another nice draft pick next season. I’d choose that over maybe reaching the #8 seed and then having to pay Klay Thompson $11 million a year.

      The key in the Cleveland deal for me is how does Minny judge Bennett? Is he even viewed as a plus or what? If he isn’t, then yes, Wiggins and a pick is likely not enough. Cleveland should have to throw in one more pick.

    65. tastycakes

      Come on, Durant was obviously showing an indication of serious potential in Year 1 (and getting plenty of playing time in which to fail).

      Want to see brutal rookie seasons by eventual all-time greats? Dirk has to be the best example:

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html

      and Nash looked like a long-shot to even be a rotation player:

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nashst01.html

      Obviously exceptions to the rule — usually folks who end up great show you something in that first year.

    66. Donnie Walsh

      A lot of good players have had a terrible TS% their rookie year:

      LeBron James: .488
      Scottie Pippen: .489
      Jason Kidd: .471
      Hubert Davis: .490
      Gary Payton: .476
      Joe Johnson: .478
      Tony Parker: .497
      Peja Stojakovic: .496
      Clyde Drexler: .496
      Toni Kukoc: .497
      Luol Deng: .496
      Aaron Afflalo: .494
      Josh Howard: .485
      Antawn Jamison: .487
      PJ Brown: .480
      Mark Jackson: .493
      Kyle Korver: .489
      Dana Barros: .497
      Rob Artest: .491
      Troy Murphy: .488
      Isiah Thomas: .487
      Kenyon Martin: .472
      John Wall: .494
      Kiki Vandeweghe: .484
      Wilson Chandler: .480
      Derek Harper: .475
      Russell Westbrook: .489
      Jose Calderon: .495
      Glen Rice: .466
      Richard Hamilton: .482
      Boris Diaw: .483
      Jamal Mashburn: .480
      Shaun Livingston: .461
      JR Smith: .478
      Goran Drajic: .487
      Mookie Blaylock: .416(!)
      Rony Seikaly: .471
      Bobby Jackson: .453
      Kris Humphries: .419(!)
      Lindsey Hunter: .441
      Ken “the Animal” Bannister: .481
      Jamal Crawford: .442
      Howard Eisley: .430
      Jim Jackson: .451
      Mike Woodson(!): .474

      Obviously, some of these guys went on to be GOTMEs, some went on to be all-stars, some went on to be darlings of the advanced stat community, and some went on to have long and productive careers.

      So to rule somebody out as a bust based on rookie year production is pretty silly… But who will improve and who won’t? (Hint: draft position has nothing to do with it!)

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