Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Knicks Morning News (2014.06.23)

  • [New York Daily News] Carmelo will opt out of Knicks deal Monday (Mon, 23 Jun 2014 04:28:30 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony will notify the Knicks on Monday, via mail, that he is opting out of the final year of his contract and that he plans to test the free agent market.

  • [New York Times] 5 Things to Know About the Miami Heat Offseason (Mon, 23 Jun 2014 07:31:21 GMT)
    LeBron James headed to the Bahamas on vacation, Chris Bosh is on a world tour with his family and Dwyane Wade posted a photo of a new backpack suggesting he was ready for some offseason getaways as well.

  • [New York Times] Baylor Center Out of N.B.A. Draft (Mon, 23 Jun 2014 04:17:24 GMT)
    Isaiah Austin’s attempt to play in the NBA despite his partial blindness has ended because of a rare genetic disorder that affects his heart.

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Pro Basketball: Baylor Center Out of N.B.A. Draft (Mon, 23 Jun 2014 04:11:59 GMT)
    Baylor center Isaiah Austin will withdraw from the N.B.A. draft after having been found to have a rare genetic disorder.

  • 119 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2014.06.23)

    1. Zanzibar

      So last couple of weeks here involved revisiting some past predictions (Leonard). Maybe this is a good time for people to predict where Big 3 will end up.

      (1) Melo – 80% chance he goes to Chicago. I’ll punt on the outright signing v. S&T prediction – too many unknowns. How tied are Bulls to Mirotic? Would Mirotic even agree to join Knicks or another team? How willing is Reinsdorf to pay Boozer’s amnestied salary? Would Chicago prefer to use draft picks to acquire Afflalo rather than on Boozer dump? How many pick(s) would Orlando want for Afflalo? How much gutting of team would Melo accept to sign outright? What is Melo’s minimum salary to sign outright? And so on..

      (2) Love - 70% GSW. It”s clear that’s where Love wants to play so I think it will happen. The whole Klay Thompson angle might just be a final negotiating ploy by GSW to keep him.

      (3) LeBron – 60% Houston. All about winning chips now. EC may be weaker but so what if he keeps losing in the Finals? Even if Wade/Bosh opt out to take less money, Wade is gonna continue to decline and Bosh is too soft. Seems unlikely Heat could build a strong enough rotation (days of Battier/Allen/Anderson/Haslem/Chalmers/Miller are over). Not to mention LBJ is upset at Arison and had enough of booing, bandwagonning Heat fans. Morey should be able to unload Asik/Lin. Example: Hawks offer 1st-round pick for Asik, Morey sends that pick plus 1 or 2 Houston picks plus 3m to some team to take Lin. Houston would have best starting 5 in league and young core. Rockets desperately need a player to be the team leader since Howard/Harden are not suited for that role. Morey would tell LBJ to pick his coach (JVG? sorry Dwight).

    2. Totes McGoats

      I agree on the Melo to Chicago thing. I also, however, believe that it’s a 50/50 chance Melo signs his max deal to stay in NY. And as bad as we need him to stay competitive until our roster flexibility is back, that’s a bad move. If Melo chose not to opt out, that would have been great. But now that he’s out, Phil had better find a good S&T deal. If not with Chicago, then with Houston.

      As far as Kevin Love goes, if MIN is truly willing to send back a pick, Martin and Love for Lee, Barnes & Klay Thompson- then GS better take that deal. Thompson is a nice piece, but not enough to hold up that deal. A Love-Curry pairing would be flat out incredible.

      Re: LBJ…I believe that if he leaves Miami, that it will be for Cleveland or NY to pair with Melo. Obviously, a NY scenario has no chance this season. I would bet on Miami’s trio to all opt in for 1 more shot. Houston would hafta S&T for LeBron, but I don’t think Miami would want anyone on that roster not named Parsons, Howard or Harden. Out of those 3, only Parsons is expendable becuz there is no way LBJ goes there without Howard or Harden being there.

      As far as our Knicks go, we can only wait for 2015, and hope that Phil can find a taker for JR. And also hope that the coaching staff can manage STAT’s minutes to keep him healthy a la Popovich and company. I think it might also behoove Phil to trade Tyson for a younger guy to pair with Aldrich since we are officially in full rebuild mode. We need as much young talent as we can muster going into 2015. If guys like Felton, Prigs, Bargs, JR, Tyson, & even Stat are moved this season, we’ll never see the type of value we’d all want to see. The best we can hope for is younger guys with a NBA skill or 2 we can work with going forward. If I had my druthers, I’d want those younger guys to have defensive potential as opposed to the ability to go out and get 20 points because it’s not likely that STAT & Bargs are gonna get moved so they will likely be our top…

    3. Totes McGoats

      This is a throwaway year yal. Although we really have no idea what kinda college talent will be available in the next draft, this opportunity to start anew with an actual system, cap room, and a lottery pick (possibly) sounds better than overpaying Melo when he’s much closer to the end of his career. By hiring Phil and Fisher, Dolan has at least bought some time, patience and hope from the fans. I, for one, have no problem waiting to see how it works out because I believe in Phil and Fisher’s basketball acumen. These are bright, personable guys with a track record of success. If Dolan stays out of the way like he does with the Rangers, and that’s a big IF, then Phil and Fish chance to succeed has got to be more than 50/50, no?

    4. ephus

      Ray Felton is not going to jail for his gun possession. He has agreed to a plea to a felony that will impose 500 hours of community service and a $5000 fine.

      Bottom line: The New York courts will not take Felton off of the court next year. I expect that Adam Silver will impose a suspension (10 games?)

    5. ephus

      There is a character clause in Section 16 of the standard player contract, which allows the team to terminate the contract of a player who:

      “fails, refuses, or neglects to conform his personal conduct to standards of good citizenship, good moral character (defined here to mean not engaging in acts of moral turpitude, whether or not such acts would constitute a crime), and good sportsmanship…”

      If the Knicks attempted to utilize this clause to terminate Felton, they would face a tough fight in the ensuing arbitration. The Warriors could not persuade the arbitrator to uphold the termination of Latrell Sprewell’s contract after he choked Coach PJ Carlesimo. The Celtics were overturned when they attempted to terminate Vin Baker being too drunk to practice or play. The Wizards did not even attempt to terminate Gilbert Arenas following his weapons conviction.

    6. johnlocke

      @ ephus — why do you think Felton will be suspended? What’s the precedent re: illegal firearm possession?

    7. Farfa

      So we’re saddled with Felton. Well, anyway nobody will point a gun to Fish’s head asking to play Felton 30 min a game.

      I won’t be among the optimistic ones who’ll try to say things like “Who knows, maybe this year Ray will be a better man and a better player”.

    8. Hubert

      Everyone here all excited about what the Knicks can get for Melo in a sign-and-trade, I think you guys are all dreaming. I have not read any article that mentions anything about the Bulls or Rockets trading with the Knicks for Melo. At best maybe they get a future pick which is what usually happens in sign-and-trades but thats it. The Knicks are going to basically lose Melo for nothing.

      Howard Beck just tweeted about this since apparently alot of fans have been tweeting him about s&t scenarios and he basically said the same thing I said, its highly unlikely they can get anything of value for him so the most likely bet is he just leaves for nothing.

      I just don’t see how we would be forced to lose him for nothing. He would have to sacrifice something like $20-$30 million on the final deal of career.

      I also think the idea that Reinsdorf might actually amnesty Boozer is nonsense, too.

      I’m confident a sign & trade with Chicago would happen if that’s where Melo wants to go, and we’d be both giving them Melo AND saving them $17mm on Boozer, so I think we’d get some fairly decent pieces.

      I don’t see Reinsdorf amnestying Boozer and I think any report indicating they would be willing to is probably emanating from a Bulls source trying to create leverage. At best they have to use their two first round picks to bribe someone to pay Boozer. And if they do that with another team, that means Melo has to take a pay cut. Why would he agree to that when he could get paid more, and fuck the Knicks over less by telling Chicago make that trade with us instead so he can get a S&T done?

      Of course, the two first round picks only covers taking back Boozer. They would need to offer us something to make us willing to do a S&T in the first place.

      I think a trade that works for all three parties….

    9. Hubert

      I think a trade that works for all three parties….

      …is Melo for Boozer, the two first round picks, Snell, and the rights to Mirotic.

      Bulls get Melo without losing anyone from their core or having to amnesty Boozer, Melo gets to go to Chicago and get paid, and we get some decent pieces to begin rebuilding with.

      I’d be very happy with that, quite frankly. Possibly more happy than re-signing Melo at a reasonable cost. I’m ready for a clean slate no more Melodrama.

    10. ephus

      @ ephus — why do you think Felton will be suspended? What’s the precedent re: illegal firearm possession?

      Gilbert Arenas and Jarvis Crittenton were suspended 50 games (the remainder of the season) after their convictions on gun charges. In that case, both actually brought guns into the Wizards locker room.

    11. Hubert

      Let’s talk real for a second:

      there currently exists the perception that a) Reinsdorf is willing to pay a player approximately $17million to create cap room to pay another player approximately $17 million, and b) Melo is willing to throw away $20-$30 million to play for the Bulls.

      I’m sorry, but this flies in the face of every existing piece of evidence we have on those two people. Those ideas only exist because people are trying to play games in the media to create leverage.

      Really, I think putting forth that idea in the face of all evidence is as crazy as thinking Bargnani might have flourished in NY. We have TONS of data on what Melo and Reinsdorf are likely to do. Let’s not ignore it because of some whispers going around the media.

    12. stratomatic

      Hubert,

      Your line of reasoning is very similar to mine, but unfortunately, as someone pointed out yesterday, even in a S&T Melo can only get 4 years in Chicago (new rules). So there is no to get around Melo taking a pay cut from the max if he leaves NY.

      That’s why I say Phil has to play hardball and offer Melo 5 years at a starting salary that makes sense to NY and not a penny more. If he takes it, fine. If not, work a S&T for whatever price as long as we get back good pieces/picks.

      IMO the key is that there’s no way the Bulls want to pay Boozer on an amnesty. They are motivated to dump him on someone. We should be willing to take him as part of a Melo deal if the rest of the deal is good.

    13. Hubert

      The best case scenario I’ve seen is the Bulls are able to free up $17-18 million in cap space. Meaning the max they could offer him is $73-$78 million.

      A sign and trade involving the Knicks, even limited to 4 years, could fetch him around $97 million (I believe; I’m assuming we can give him a starting salary 5% higher than last year, with 5% raises each year, and still be able to trade him; correct me if I’m wrong).

    14. Hubert

      I’m assuming we can give him a starting salary 5% higher than last year, with 5% raises each year, and still be able to trade him; correct me if I’m wrong

      or let me correct myself. it can be up to 4.5%. Meaning we can offer Melo 4 years, $95.6 million in a sign & trade.

    15. Owen

      I am happy to take Boozer on for a year if Snell and Mirotic and picks are coming our way….

    16. Donnie Walsh

      Jason Kidd was suspended by the league after he pleaded guilty to his DWI. The league will certainly suspend Felton.

      Regarding an S&T with Chicago, something tells me Dolan won’t be okay losing Anthony to Chicago. He won’t won’t facilitate it even if the Knicks stand to benefit. He’ll cut off his nose to spite his face, because he’s Jim Dolan and JDDWJDD.

    17. stratomatic

      Owen,

      Deep down inside I’d be willing to take just Boozer back, write the Melo trade off as sunk cost fiasco, and start all over. IMO that is NOT a horrible scenario. It’s vastly superior to giving Melo a max contract and writing off the next 5 years. As far as I am concerned, giving Melo a 5 year max contract makes building a serious championship contender close to impossible. Melo is about a 15m a year player. If we give him 15m, he can be the 2nd (preferably 3rd) best player on the team and you can still build a bench.

    18. stratomatic

      Hubert,

      I don’t pay close enough attention to all the cap details, but your scenario seems fine. As long as NY is not bidding up the price for Melo I am fine. The only thing we don’t want to do is overpay.

      Overpaying is only reasonable when you are getting the FINAL piece to the puzzle, not when you are starting over.

    19. Owen

      Melo for nothing? I.e., just do the trade to make sure we don’t sign Melo long term? I agree, of course. though I am holding out hope that Melo’s value is high enough he could command some sort of premium in a deal….

    20. chrisk06811

      “So we’re saddled with Felton. Well, anyway nobody will point a gun to Fish’s head asking to play Felton 30 min a game.”

      Uh……dude……..Felton has a gun.

    21. ephus

      If the only thing coming back is Carlos Boozer, I would rather the Knicks simply allow Melo to walk away for nothing. The Knicks would then be at $68 million for the 2014-15 season, meaning they would not be a tax-paying team this year, even if the added a full MLE and BAE.

      The Knicks would not be subject to the dreaded “repeater” this year or likely for the next three seasons.

      If I am Phil Jackson, I am telling Chicago that unless they come up with a huge haul, there is no S&T. Let Carmelo put the pressure on Chicago to cough up the Knicks price so that he can get his full Max salary. Maybe he decides to go to Houston instead. Maybe he decides to stay for the Knicks’ offer.

    22. Hubert

      For Chicago to even be able to offer Melo 4 years, $78 million (i.e. $18 million less than he can get in a S&T), they have to amnesty boozer and give up pieces they probably don’t want to part with.

      I really think a S&T is great for all parties, assuming (as Donnie Walsh points out) Dolan doesn’t screw everything up. But, call me crazy, I actually believe he will let Phil make the call.

      I like this more than re-signing Melo at a fair price, to be honest. I want a fresh start and the chance of adding building a solid foundation and maybe adding Durant in 2016 (or just building through the draft).

    23. Hubert

      Another thing to keep in mind is that Chicago has two picks in the next draft, as well (theirs plus a Sacramento pick, top-10 protected for 3 years).

    24. stratomatic

      If the only thing coming back is Carlos Boozer, I would rather the Knicks simply allow Melo to walk away for nothing. The Knicks would then be at $68 million for the 2014-15 season, meaning they would not be a tax-paying team this year, even if the added a full MLE and BAE.

      Of course you are correct. I am so against signing Melo for the max that I really don’t care what we get back. But of course, we should negotiate the best possible deal.

    25. ess-dog

      Despite Melo haters and their wishful thinking, the likeliest result will be Melo resigning with us for the max. Opting out gives him leverage with the Knicks for a max contract, of course he’s going to do that.

      But I’m sure he wants to stay. Whatever you think of Melo, he’s not psychotic enough to force his way to his beloved NY, only to force his way out a few years later.

      A maxed out Melo does make things harder for us, but his point would be that you can find good players on the cheap. Our front office has just done a horrible job wasting $ and draft picks to bring in guys like Felton and Bargs.

      Fantasy trades are fun, but I’m hoping we’ll have a solid GM/Coach/System in place from now on, and an actual plan moving forward.

      While this year is a wash, we can still start Melo and Tyson. Jeremy Tyler has a lot of potential to be coached up, as does TH2. Prigs is a good back up pg. Our guards are atrocious, but we can buy picks, go Euro-shopping, or just find Lin type players to round out the roster. And then next year, we clear the deck and start fresh.

      I don’t think Melo is thinking 5-6 rings, I think he wants to win once in his career and will build towards that in NYC.

      I’m not saying I prefer keeping Melo, but I think keeping him is likely.

    26. JK47

      Opting out also gives the Knicks leverage. You’re gonna opt out, screw us over again, insist on the mega-max again, when the best thing for the team would obviously be to opt in to give the team maximum flexibility next year?

      Go pound sand. That’s what I’d tell him.

    27. Hubert

      Hubert,

      I don’t pay close enough attention to all the cap details, but your scenario seems fine. As long as NY is not bidding up the price for Melo I am fine. The only thing we don’t want to do is overpay.

      In my scenario we’re not paying him anything, we’re trading him.

      We’re telling him “help us get assets from the Bulls which don’t take away from their current roster, and you can make $96 million over 4 years to play for the Bulls instead of $73-$78 million over 4 years.”

    28. GoNyGoNYGo

      @ess-dog said:

      “Despite Melo haters and their wishful thinking, the likeliest result will be Melo resigning with us for the max. Opting out gives him leverage with the Knicks for a max contract, of course he’s going to do that.”

      I agree and that would make me very happy.
      If it does, it means is that our roster would virtually be set. The only other major move I would make would be to find draft pick. This doesn’t make the team good, but rebuilding with a core that starts with Melo is better than any alternative.

    29. JK47

      http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/233874/Carmelo-Would-Like-Input-In-Player-Personnel-Decisions

      Seriously, FUCK THIS GUY. Now he wants to be GM too? Does he get to have veto power over Phil’s moves?

      I’m starting to really, really despise Carmelo Anthony. This guy’s ego is just WAY out of control. Did the Pistons give a voice in personnel decisions to Mark Aguirre? No, they did not, and we shouldn’t give personnel say-so to a similar player.

      Enough of this guy’s me-first drama bullshit.

    30. stratomatic

      We’re telling him “help us get assets from the Bulls which don’t take away from their current roster, and you can make $96 million over 4 years to play for the Bulls instead of $73-$78 million over 4 years.”

      Yes. That’s exactly what I want. But I willing to concede ess-dog’s point that he may actually want to play in NY. That’s why we have to offer him what we consider a fair contract and tell him to take it or leave it. No max deal!

    31. SJK

      @34 I mean what did he actually say in that realgm article…

      “As far as player personnel goes, I would love to be involved in that… At the end of the day, you’re creating a family.”

      It’s not as if he’s demanding that he be involved in all the personnel decisions. Seems like he’s just saying he wants to make sure they don’t go after players he doesn’t think are compatible, etc. which is important for roster chemistry anyway. To me this is a pretty insignificant quote, it doesn’t really mean anything.

    32. BigBlueAL

      JK47, that is such a sensational headline for a pretty innocent comment Melo made. Kobe says the same thing all the time but just alot more loudly. I mean Ive read that Lebron basically gives coaching suggestions to Spoelstra on plays and minutes for players for crying out loud.

    33. JK47

      I would consider it innocuous if Melo hadn’t forced Lin out of town and helped facilitate the CAA infestation that helped this team maintain it’s laughing stock status.

      We gave him a say in personnel, and it turned out like shit.

    34. stratomatic

      JK47,

      I’m not sure what the term is to describe people whose self image is drastically out of line with reality, but Melo sees himself as an elite superstar that deserves the same money, power, and endorsements as guys like James, Durant etc…. That’s why he wants to be chased. That’s also part of what makes him a high scorer. He’s so confident he’s not afraid to to be aggressive, take the big shot, etc… It’s also what makes him a terrible max contract player. It’s hard to convince someone he’s doing many things wrong when he thinks he’s a superstar doing almost everything right.

    35. flossy

      “As far as player personnel goes, I would love to be involved in that,” said Anthony. “At the end of the day, you’re creating a family.”

      … said the guy whose cronies were responsible for literally giving out NBA contracts to grossly unqualified family members of current players.

    36. ess-dog

      I mean, it’s a tough position. Melo’s clearly no KD or Lebron, but he’s not Rudy Gay either.
      Is a mega max overpaying him? Sure, but only compared to 2 other guys at his position. He might take a small haircut, but he’s still going to want that extra year at a touch more than what the others could offer.
      Best possible scenario IMO is Melo takes a deal from us averaging around 18.5 a year and looks like a nice guy by not taking 20.

    37. stratomatic

      For the record, it’s not Melo HATE. It’s that we CANNOT WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP with this guy as a max contract player going forward. It’s virtually IMPOSSIBLE to build a champion once you’ve committed that much to a player that is clearly below guys like James, CP3, Love, Durant and other players that are equal or better and making less.

      That he also destroyed our Walsh/D’Antoni rebuild to force his way here, drove D’Antoni out because he didn’t like his role in the system, drove Lin out because he was getting too much of the limelight, and helped facilitate all the horrible CAA deals etc.. just tells you the guy is a loser. He’s extremely talented. He may even be a great guy, great husband, great father, and great to be friends with and hang out with, but you can be all those things and still be a loser. He’s an extremely self centered guy when it comes to basketball, hasn’t learned how to play the game yet, and won’t win in Chicago or Houston either until he changes.

    38. er

      We gave him a say in personnel, and it turned out like shit

      flossy June 23, 2014 at 3:45 pm
      “As far as player personnel goes, I would love to be involved in that,” said Anthony. “At the end of the day, you’re creating a family.”

      … said the guy whose cronies were responsible for literally giving out NBA contracts to grossly unqualified family members of current players.

      Melo haters making shit up again lol

    39. er

      you’ve committed that much to a player that is clearly below guys like James, CP3, Love, Durant and other players that are equal or better and making less.

      Funny only one of these guys has a chip. CP3 and Love have never been to the WCF. And KD hasnt won shit without Harden on the team. Melo at 20 mil doesnt hinder the Knicks, it helps the Knicks. No one is going to want to come here with no one else here. Also if you build the role players smartly, similar to last year you can have success.

    40. stratomatic

      If you build around Rudy Gay you may not make the playoffs, let alone become a serious contender.

      Look guys, maybe you all don’t mind writing off the next 5 years when this guy signs for close to the max, but I mind. I’ve been a fan since the late 60s when we won. It was incredible. I want to do it again. I’m tired of suffering. If I’m going to suffer for another 5-10 years, I at least want to suffer going about it the right way. Walsh/MDA made a few mistakes, but they were on a sensible path. As soon as that Melo deal went down I knew we had written off our future and we’d have to wait for the next rebuild. Now we are finally there.

      You want Melo back?

      Offer him 15m take it or leave it!!!

      That’s still more than he’s worth in an era when guys like Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili or James, Wade, and Bosh are taking discounts because they want to win. Anything more than that is going to damage our chances. At the max we are destroyed.

    41. er

      Its really funny to me that Melo is treated like TO here. Ive never really ever heard him say anything, but hes given sooo much credit for being an evil doer. Quite interesting. Hes never said anything about Lin yet to some here, its gospel that he made dolan let him go etc

    42. stratomatic

      Funny only one of these guys has a chip. CP3 and Love have never been to the WCF. And KD hasnt won shit without Harden on the team. Melo at 20 mil doesnt hinder the Knicks, it helps the Knicks. No one is going to want to come here with no one else here. Also if you build the role players smartly, similar to last year you can have success.

      I don’t consider Melo overpaid based on the fact that he’s never won a chip. I base it on stats that suggest he produces way less than those other guys on the court or in other cases similar but at a much higher salary.

    43. er

      Offer him 15m take it or leave it!!!

      That’s still more than he’s worth in an era when guys like Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili or James, Wade, and Bosh are taking discounts

      Boy.. this has been soooo overstated. Bosh Wade and James took like a 1mill discount. Tim Duncan was making 21 million dollars in his 35-36 year old season.

    44. ess-dog

      Anyway, if we can grab Patty Mills and another decent guard, we could have a good year as long as we just don’t play JR, Felton and Bargs (and Stat sparingly.)

    45. EB

      @46

      Your argument is that we should sign Melo to the max because he can win a championship. This, despite acknowledging that all those better players, whose teams have better role players and more flexibility, can’t win?

      Even if I were to agree that Melo is worth the max now, I still couldn’t justify paying him 20+ million at the end of that contract.

    46. flossy

      Melo haters making shit up again lol

      Right. You’re right. I’m just making it up. I’m sure that even if Carmelo Anthony had never been traded to the Knicks, we’d have ended up with Chris Smith on our roster.

      Whatever you think of Carmelo as a player, there is absolutely no denying that he has served as a Trojan horse for a whole cadre of CAA people who immediately steered this team into a wall. Unless you think it’s just a coincidence that Mike Woodson was forced to fire his agent and hire CAA. Or that Melo’s homeboy and CAA client JR Smith took a wink-wink contract and was later rewarded with an insanely long deal despite having a total meltdown in the playoffs. Or that JR’s grossly untalented little brother and CAA client was given a roster spot despite barely having D-league caliber talent. Or that perpetual punchline and CAA client Andrea Bargnani just happened to get traded to the Knicks at enormous cost.

      So yeah. Plenty of the Knicks’ screw-ups have Team Melo’s fingerprints all over them. As you would say, “LOL.”

    47. er

      Your argument is that we should sign Melo to the max because he can win a championship. This, despite acknowledging that all those better players, whose teams have better role players and more flexibility, can’t win?

      not at all. Just saying it doesnt matter. ~20 million is fine. I never said the max

    48. er

      I don’t consider Melo overpaid based on the fact that he’s never won a chip. I base it on stats that suggest he produces way less than those other guys on the court or in other cases similar but at a much higher salary.

      The only person who he makes considerbly more than is Love and thats only because hes maxed based on his old contract right?

    49. er

      So yeah. Plenty of the Knicks’ screw-ups have Team Melo’s fingerprints all over them. As you would say, “LOL.”

      So Melo sits in a dark room and worries about Chris Smith? K. Also i think Melo and JR’s relationship has always been overstated. If Ruru was still with us im sure he could provide input.

      If Dolan wants his Team run by CAA how exactly is that Carmelo anthony’s problem?

    50. stratomatic

      ER,

      You are missing the point.

      It’s not just salary and it’s not just contribution. The VALUE formula is the relationship between what you contribute and what you are paid. By that standard, Melo is a terrible VALUE relative to many of the top players in the NBA. In enough cases he is making more than players that contribute more which puts you at a woeful disadvantage filling out the team.

    51. Hubert

      Honestly, now that I’ve talked myself into thinking that Mirotic, Snell, and two firsts is entirely reasonable, I would be disappointed if we got Melo back at any price.

      I really want a fresh start and some hope.

    52. danvt

      On the one hand, this team, with Melo and people who could make plays and shoot, won 54 games in 12-13. On the other hand, this team, with a hurt Tyson Chandler for basically the entire first half, no Jason Kidd, no Steve Novak, and no Copeland, could not compete. The people who replaced those people could not get it done.

      I think Phil can find role players and this team can get back to 5o wins with a maxed out Melo. Will they ever truly compete for a championship with such a roster? I guess the consensus here is no. It’s hard though, as a fan, to contemplate the boredom of a rebuild.

    53. flossy

      So Melo sits in a dark room and worries about Chris Smith? K. Also i think Melo and JR’s relationship has always been overstated. If Ruru was still with us im sure he could provide input.

      If Dolan wants his Team run by CAA how exactly is that Carmelo anthony’s problem?

      It’s both Carmelo Anthony’s problem, because his agents and managers have managed to royally screw up his team, and also his fault, because it’s his entourage that is responsible for these boneheaded decisions.

      Dolan doesn’t want the Knicks to be run be CAA. Dolan wants Carmelo Anthony. Period. At any cost. Melo and CAA are a package deal. You want Melo? You also get Leon Rose and World Wide Wes making sure their other clients have a home at MSG, or that anyone (like Woodson) who has a position of influence with the team becomes a CAA client or else.

      But no, let’s just pretend like Melo bears no responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the people that he brought with him to MSG. If only ruruland were still around to give us the inside scoop! LOLOLOL

    54. cgreene

      In fairness CAA represents Madison Square Garden. Their tentacles to Dolan go a lot farther than Melo. Melo at $17M and let’s roll. Or be gone and stay gone.

    55. Hubert

      Remember when he made his feelings about Josh Selby widely known and threw a little hissy fit on twitter when we drafted Shumpert instead?

    56. er

      Remember when he made his feelings about Josh Selby widely known and threw a little hissy fit on twitter when we drafted Shumpert instead?

      lol wow…Selby he actually does know however.

    57. Hubert

      Hes never said anything about Lin

      He called Lin’s offer “ridiculous” when we still had a chance to match it.

      Ironically, he wants a contract that’s even more ridiculous for himself but he’s too dimwitted to know it’s ridiculous.

    58. er

      He called Lin’s offer “ridiculous”

      Read your own quote. He never said anything bad about Lin. His contract was stupid and morey is trying to get out of it

      Here’s the full quote.

      “I would love to see him back,” Carmelo Anthony said, “but I think he has to do what’s best for him right now.

      But it’s really not up to Lin anymore. He signed the offer sheet and the ball is in the Knicks’ court.

      “It’s not up to me,” Anthony said laughing. “It’s up to the organization to say that they want to match that ridiculous contract that’s out there.”

      So yea evil genius. Who in jest says something wrong…. He could have said “that huge fucking” instead of rediculous but who are we kidding Melo would have been the mastermind behind not signing lol you guys…

    59. Brian Cronin

      Honestly, now that I’ve talked myself into thinking that Mirotic, Snell, and two firsts is entirely reasonable, I would be disappointed if we got Melo back at any price.

      I really want a fresh start and some hope.

      Melo at a discount still gives you hope. Melo at the max does not, but Melo at a discount does, so I think you’re okay to still hope for that to happen.

      I still think Melo returns, but I’ll admit that I’m wavering a bit on the whole “at a discount” part of it all. It sure does look like he’s either trying to go elsewhere or trying to pressure Jackson into overpaying him to return. Hopefully that’s not the case! At least it looks like we’ll find out pretty soon, right?

    60. Brian Cronin

      Ugh – I just remembered that my wife booked us a trip to a resort on June 30-July 2nd. I mean, on the one hand, it seems like a nice resort. On the other hand, that’s right in the middle of free agency!

    61. GoNyGoNYGo

      @60 – I tend to agree with you that the core of 12-13 stayed intact but losing TC to injury and the Knicks did a bad job replacing the role-players. So, if we resign Melo and put some better pieces around him, they have a chance.

      What’s missing is a PG. Felton’s swoon was monumental.

    62. GoNyGoNYGo

      @Brian Cronin,

      Have fun on vacation. I sometimes feel that it would be better for my blood pressure to leave the country than to read all the doom-and-gloom about my ‘bockers. Consider it therapy.

    63. johnno

      “Boy.. this has been soooo overstated. Bosh Wade and James took like a 1mill discount.”
      I’m glad you pointed this out. Bosh and Wade are each under contract to make over $41 million over the next two years. Melo is no LeBron, but most level-headed people would acknowledge that he’s a helluva a lot better/more valuable at this point in his career than Wade and Bosh are. It will be very interesting to see if they opt out and leave tens of millions on the table.
      “CP3 and Love have never been to the WCF.”
      It would be nice if Kevin Love actually led his team to a .500 record before people started acting like he was one of the two or three best players in the world.
      I think that it might be prudent to see how the whole Melo thing turns out before we conclude that he’s greedy jerk.

    64. er

      Melo is a terrible VALUE relative to many of the top players in the NBA.

      Well someone ate a bunch of hyperbole for lunch today. You can say bad, or even below avg, but terrible….haha K

      What the hell are bargs and Stat? whats below terrible? lol

    65. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

      Carmelo Anthony is a terrible value. Seconded.

      Not as bad as Danny Granger, Eddy Curry, Rudy Gay or Jerome James, but a terrible value.

    66. Brian Cronin

      At a max contract, yes, bad value (so bad that it would essentially screw the team over for the next five years). At a discounted contract at roughly the levels he is talking about taking from Chicago and Houston (so roughly a little under $20 million). That’s a good value, I think. His three-point shooting should hold up well and his size isn’t going away. His explosiveness obviously will, but so long as he is a tall, big guy who can shoot the three at a high percentage, he will have a lot of value.

    67. ess-dog

      If you want good value, you have to, you know, actually draft people. I’m all for more of that.

    68. Brian Cronin

      Oh yeah, obviously, they should not be trading a draft pick for the next four years at least.

    69. er

      Not as bad as Danny Granger, Eddy Curry, Rudy Gay or Jerome James, but a terrible value.

      haha wow.

    70. bobneptune

      I think that it might be prudent to see how the whole Melo thing turns out before we conclude that he’s greedy jerk.

      That has already been established per the trade from Denver.

    71. DRed

      His explosiveness obviously will, but so long as he is a tall, big guy who can shoot the three at a high percentage, he will have a lot of value.

      We’re still talking about Novak?

    72. Brian Cronin

      We’re still talking about Novak?

      Ha! But really, imagine Novak if were big enough to bang with NBA power forwards and that’s basically Melo (although obviously not as good of a three point shooter as Novak). Novak’s biggest weakness is that he can’t really bang with NBA power forwards, so he has trouble staying on the court. If he was Melo’s size but with that same three-point stroke, he’d easily be making near-MAX himself. He’d basically be Dirk (and that is what Melo has been transforming into in recent seasons – a lesser version of Dirk, which is still really, really good).

    73. hoolahoop

      Forced his hand to “come home” and couldn’t wait to leave. He tried hard and is as gifted as anyone in the league, but has the wrong formula. “Sticky fingers” is on his way to his next losing ground. Bye-bye Me-lo.

    74. DRed

      If we were doing a Mt Rushmore of shitty post-ewing Knicks, you’d have Curry, Bargs, and Jerome James as 3 locks. But who do we like as the 4th head?

    75. ephus

      Novak has a lot bigger problems than that:

      1. He has a slow release, so teams can get to him on the closeout.
      2. He cannot put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, so there is no fear in closing out hard.
      3. He is a pure catch-and-shoot guy, so he does not move off of curls and screens to get open.
      4. He is a bad (but willing) defender. He may not be as bad as Bargs, but he is not good.
      5. He has no game inside of 20 feet.
      6. He is too frail to set solid screens.

      Novak was great at what he could do, but he could do nothing outside of his one area of excellence.
      http://wp.me/p4Dfab-sq

    76. Hubert

      Melo at a discount still gives you hope. Melo at the max does not, but Melo at a discount does, so I think you’re okay to still hope for that to happen.

      Not for me, personally, though I understand why it would for others. The only hope it gives me is the slim chance he can talk LeBron into coming.

      What hope does Melo at a “discount” really give us? The hope of being a 2nd round playoff team?

      Draft picks, Mirotic, young players on cheap deals, a new coach & president with a fresh start, complete severance from CAA,and a great chance at a high lottery pick in 2015 gives me more hope than Melo being our best player for the next 4 years.

    77. Brian Cronin

      1. He has a slow release, so teams can get to him on the closeout.
      2. He cannot put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, so there is no fear in closing out hard.
      3. He is a pure catch-and-shoot guy, so he does not move off of curls and screens to get open.
      4. He is a bad (but willing) defender. He may not be as bad as Bargs, but he is not good.
      5. He has no game inside of 20 feet.
      6. He is too frail to set solid screens.

      But almost all of those have to do with his size. He can’t do 3, 5 and 6 because he is too small. And 4 is generally a size issue, as well. Melo is not a particularly good defender, but his size allows him to be passable on d.

      1, though, fair enough – that’s a separate demerit for Novak.

    78. Hubert

      Look er, I ain’t here to argue with you about Melo & Lin. You said Melo never said anything about Lin, and you were wrong. That’s all. You can argue about the impact what he said had, but you can’t say he didn’t say anything. He got involved in another player’s contract negotiations, and that’s extremely rare. I can’t recall it ever happening before.

    79. er

      Got involved ? Ok I just thought he was too honest in answering a question. Whatever tho it’s over

    80. lavor postell

      Wasn’t there some game in Orlando where we had to play Shandon at the 4 and we won? I think it may been under Dick Cheney. Idk for some reason I remember that happening.

    81. Hubert

      One more reason Melo walking would give me more hope than Melo staying:

      It’s definitive proof that Dolan is not involved w basketball operations.

    82. Brian Cronin

      Definitely Shandon Anderson. Dude was overpaid when the Knicks got him and they extended him for even more money!!

      That said, as highly overpaid as Anderson was, he was a really nice guy and everyone else was so terrible on those Knick teams that he probably sadly was still barely worth being a rotation guy and I’m still a bit irked at Isiah for ending Anderson’s consecutive games streak as some sort of statement. It seemed like a dick move.

    83. Hubert

      If we want to do the real Mt Rushmore of post Ewing ineptitude we have to capture failure on all its levels and make sure all areas are duly represented. I’d carve Isiah, Curry, Bargnani, and Woodson into the stone.

    84. flossy

      I think it may been under Dick Cheney

      The early ’00s Knicks only felt like torture. They didn’t actually waterboard anyway, as far as I can recall.

    85. EB

      Dolan needs to be on mt. Rushmore. Woody isn’t good, but neither does he belong on that list. There’s too many horrifying disasters to have woody on there.

    86. BigBlueAL

      Don Chaney, dont get me started on him. When JVG quit I was devastated but thought well at least they have a veteran head coach who has been an asst for a few years with the Knicks to take over so it might not be all that bad. Boy how wrong was I. The defense went to crap instantly under Cheney.

    87. EB

      And I don’t think bargs deserves to be on there either. He’s only played 1/2 a season and we already knew he was going to suck. I hate the bargs deal but I can’t bring myself to hate bargs himself. He’s never done anything despicable, he’s just woefully inept. He didn’t untie people’s shoes, threaten to kill anyone, demand a trade or eat himself out of shape. He’s never eaten Vaseline or been Steve Francis. No sexual harassment suits or anything like that. Just a bad basketball player who got drafted too high, paid too much money and traded for too much .

    88. danvt

      “One more reason Melo walking would give me more hope than Melo staying:
      It’s definitive proof that Dolan is not involved w basketball operations.”

      Yeah + 1 on that. Not that I want him to leave necessarily, but it would buck a trend of overpaying for big names that dates back to, really the Nixon administration.

      So yeah, I like Melo but I’d like to see cooler heads prevail, obviously.

    89. Hubert

      Is there a Mountain that has a dozen faces carved into somewhere? It would be much more appropriate for this exercise.

    90. Hubert

      Knicks dirty dozen:

      Dolan
      Layden
      Isiah
      Cheney
      Woodson
      Curry
      Bargnani
      Marbury
      Francis
      Felton
      McDyess
      James

    91. maxwell_3g

      to answer the original question:

      1) LeBron- 75% Heat. Otherwise, Dallas??? I dont see him going to Houston or Cleveland. I honestly think his best move would be to sign with Atlanta. he could own the town and have a great team to play with under a great coach
      2) Melo- 60% chicago, 30% NYK, 10% Dallas- I agree with the consensus that a sign and trade to Chicago is best for our Knicks
      3) Love- 65% GSW, 20% LAL, 15% Minny- Im not a Love guy, but when the sticking point is Klay Thompson (not a world beater), id say the team is going to get done

    92. maxwell_3g

      Now what should the Knicks do?? Here are my options, from best to worst
      1) sign and trade with Chicago. Assuming Melo really wants to go to Chicago, we can help him go while maximizing his salary. I want Boozer (dont want Boozer really), Mirotic, and 2 firsts. they can keep Butler, Gibson, and Snell, though I really like Butler. May try to pawn Felton on them as part of this by taking back an expiring.
      2) sign Melo for 5 years, 88 mill or 4 years 76 mill. No higher than that, no player options. no right to be heard in personnel decision. you are just another player who gets paid a lot of money Mr. melo
      3) Let him walk
      4) sign him for the max.
      5) Light myself on fire

    93. Brian Cronin

      I would first investigate the “light myself on fire” option a bit more before I rank it below giving Melo the max.

    94. Hubert

      I wouldn’t bother forcing them to take Felton or JR. 1 – it will reduce the amount of assets we can get back. 2 – without Melo, we’re not building towards cap space in 2015 any more. Love won’t be around and Rondo & Gasol are not worth using up all your cap space on. It’s 2016 without Melo, and at that point Felton & JR are gone.

    95. maxwell_3g

      My Knicks dirty dozen:
      1) Dolan
      2) Lay-dum
      3) Isaih
      4) Wudsun
      5) Larry Brown
      6) Curry
      7) Jerome James
      8) Shandon Anderson
      9) Van Horn
      10) Clarence Weatherspoon
      11) Mills (Steve, not Chris)
      12) Francis
      Its unbelievable that we have been sooo bad that Marbury, Tim Thomas, Bargs, Felton, Pringles, Glen Rice (who we traded Ewing for?), Eisley, Penny, The Pipe, Marty Collins, Moochie Norris, Travis Knight, Chaney, Lenny Wilkins, etc cant make the list

    96. Brian Cronin

      Eisley has got to be on any dirty dozen list. He was expensive and even worse than Shandon Anderson.

    97. maxwell_3g

      Hubert, I agree with you. i guess I reflexively put that in there. In ranking the problems with our team, the fact that felton and JR have contracts that go one year past the “reset” is really at the bottom of the list. i actually think that Felton could be an adequate backup, and 3.5 mill is not that ridiculous to pay for one (high, but not astronomical). and its not like JR doesnt have actual talent. I mean Crawford gets paid more than that. its not like it completely dead money (see Curry, Eddie)

    98. maxwell_3g

      Brian, I am biased. I saw the Knicks win in ATL (or at least keep it close) during those years and Eisley kind of went off (Im thinking 18 and 8). it was mind blowing when it happened, but it has colored my recollection of his game

    99. Frank

      Great thread guys.

      I’m thinking giving Melo the max and lighting myself on fire are pretty close in my book.

      Some thoughts on what’s been posted.

      I agree that Reinsdorf has consistently avoided paying the tax. BUT — the wild card is that the Clips (with no arena or TV deal) just sold for $2B. And that there were multiple bidders willing to be >$1.5B. If the Bulls went on the market they’d probably go for 1.5-2B or more. Reinsdorf’s thinking re: the luxury tax just might be different now after the Ballmer sale.

      Re: letting him walk for nothing — I didn’t realize that would put us well under the apron (~$81MM) ie. at ~68.5MM for 12 players if I’m reading ShamSports salary info correctly. That would allow us to use the full MLE AND BAE if necessary as ephus wrote above (in addition to escaping the repeater tax). Now we might not want to spend the full MLE but having the full MLE gives us an important edge over teams that only have the mini-MLE to spend. And the BAE is a big advantage in getting guys who would otherwise only have vet’s minimums. Again, we may not choose to use either of these because it would impinge on cap space — but the potential that we might want to do that (Pau Gasol?) might make potential Melo suitors (and Melo) think we are willing to let him walk for nothing, giving a “walking away” strategy some credibility in any potential trade negotiations.

      I really don’t think Melo wants to go to Houston. They may have Howard and Harden, but they don’t have any sort of defensive identity there that would allow Melo to basically coast on D, like Chicago does. Between Melo (who I think is better than his rep on D), Harden (who is worse than his rep), and Parsons (who is meh), Beverley and DH12 will have a LOT of covering up to do. And the draw in Chicago has been Thibs, if you can believe the papers – McHale doesn’t have that same cachet. Nor does Houston have the appeal of Chicago IMHO.

    100. Frank

      Re: the full MLE: if it gets us Pau Gasol for 2-3 years at 5.5MM or so, we are able to trade Shump for a mid-late 1st, decline Pablo’s 2015 option, our cap situation would still be quite good — only about $16MM committed not counting the 2015 1st round pick + cap holds.

      Or we could give Shaun Livingston $4MM/year – I’d be happy with that.

      Overall, I think Phil was right with his “man are we fortunate” either way line. I think there is light at the end of the tunnel no matter how this turns out, other than giving Melo the supermax.

      S&T — many good potential options as long as we don’t take on any long term $.

      Letting him walk — not as good, but my guess is we’d still sniff the edges of the playoffs if we wanted to next year (vs. tanking). And as others have written, it would prove to the fan base that Phil is really in charge. We would have some flexibility this offseason to make some moves.

      Bringing Melo back at a semi-reasonable rate — I’m probably willing to pay Melo as much as an average of $22MM/year x 5 years providing the deal is structured to give us flexibility in 2015. At a cap # of $20MM for 2015 (and with Larry Coon’s projected $66.5MM cap number for 2015) that would be exactly 30% of our cap tied up in Melo. I think that is probably manageable and would give us room for 2 more hefty contracts or 1 max contract + some other room. Obviously I’d much rather us sign him for less than that ($18-20MM is reasonable IMHO for both sides) but having Melo on the team does mitigate the downside risk of this team assuming it’s never coached by Woodson again.

    101. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

      I think the Mt. Knicksmore of post-Y2K futility should have half-finished portraits of every head coach that has quit or been terminated before their contract is up.

      Just imagine half-faces of Jeff Van Gundy, Don Chaney, Lenny Wilkens, Mike D’Antoni and The Beard all ranging from mildly-perturbed to downright-depressed, with full-body carvings of Isiah and Dolan drinking moonshine from Dixie cups, faces enthralled in borderline hilarity, pointing and laughing at every poor schmuck whose image had been preserved there for all to see.

      And then put that sculpture deep in the rotting, piss-covered stone of the 163rd St. subway station on the C line so it makes sense.

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