Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Knicks Morning News (2014.06.19)

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Melo: 'I like what Phil's doing' (Thu, 19 Jun 2014 01:00:43 EDT)
    New Knicks coach Derek Fisher got an endorsement from one of the most important members of the organization on Wednesday. Carmelo Anthony, when asked what he thought about Fisher being hired as Knicks’ head coach, said, “I like what Phil is doing.”Anthony spoke at an event in Manhattan to promote his partnership with 50 Cent and SMS Audio headphones. Anthony politely declined to discuss his future or free agency but did say that his meeting with Fisher, Knicks president Phil Jackson and GM Steve Mills in Los Angeles last week “went well.

  • [New York Daily News] Melo likes Phil’s moves, but still tight-lipped on FA plans (Thu, 19 Jun 2014 06:10:06 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony looked very much at home late Wednesday with the Empire State Building looming over his shoulder and the Freedom Tower off in the distance. The Knicks free agent-to-be politely declined to address his future

  • [New York Newsday] Carmelo Anthony says meeting with Phil Jackson was 'great' (Thu, 19 Jun 2014 00:14:00 EDT)
    Carmelo Anthony didn't give any indication which way he was leaning when it comes to his upcoming free agency.

  • [New York Times] Spurs Celebrate NBA Title (Thu, 19 Jun 2014 03:57:31 GMT)
    Fans screamed “Go Spurs Go!” in unison at the slightest glimpse of a San Antonio Spurs’ player or coach floating down the River Walk.

  • [New York Times] Spurs Take NBA Championship Victory Lap on San Antonio Waterway (Thu, 19 Jun 2014 02:21:24 GMT)
    A crowd estimated at more than 100,000 people lined San Antonio’s River Walk to cheer from balconies, blow horns and chant “Go Spurs go” on Wednesday to celebrate the team’s National Basketball Association championship.

  • 119 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2014.06.19)

    1. Zanzibar

      It means building a team around strong defense and an offensive system where stars share the ball with role players and role players make the game easier for the stars

      Indeed which is why I strongly favor building a team along the lines of 2003 Pistons/Memphis Grizz/Pacers and employing triangle to foster ball movement. That means keeping and developing Shump and selling high on THJ who moves like his old man – and I’m talking about his old man today not 25 years ago. That means signing players like Patty Mills and Aldrich (applying Kurylo’s Law of Scalable Per Minute Statistics). That means making high bid for rfa Jimmy Butler. That means signing Marc Gasol…oh wait

      Courtesy of Ephus It does not sound as if Marc Gasol is eager to leave Memphis. I do not think he is a likely target for the summer of 2015.

      Bummer. Throws sand in the gears of that plan. Still hope if Pau plays this season for team like Phoenix, Atlanta, Chicago and then convinces his bro that Knicks is better situation. Pau, after all, knows Jax, knows Fish, knows the triangle, and knows what it’s like to play in big market. Marc/Pau would be perfect for the triangle.

      Still some hope if Marc stays in Memphis. Love goes to Chicago and Houston takes Jones/Asik/Lin deal for Melo. A possible 2015-16 roster: Mills(3.5m)/Shump (4m)/Jones (2.5m)/Hibbert (16m)/Millsap (13m)/Pau (8m)/Cole (2m)/2015 draft pick/Chandler pick and we would still have about 13m in cap if we could unload JR/Felton. Maybe include Felton in Houston deal and give some team 3m to take JR at the trade deadline. Then place high bid for Butler.

      Note: If Kurylo’s Law of Scalable Per Minute Statistics holds, Mills and Cole would represent tremendous value. I believe it would more or less hold in both those cases; in fact, if there’s a way to drop below the apron allowing us 5m mle and 2m BAE (via chandler/melo trades and Amare/JR buyouts) I would do it. Give bae to Cole and whatever it takes of mle to acquire Mills. What’s downside to Cole? Best case we’ve got Asik equivalent for 2m; worst case, we waive-and-stretch contract. Phil…

    2. Zanzibar

      Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Love went to Chicago and LeBron to Houston? Melo would lose the game of musical chairs and then have to re-sign here on 4 year/65m deal (although I suppose he could end on Miami, Phoenix, or some other team).

    3. dinardodp

      Lots of ifs and ands with Knicks.. Let’s all be honest, the real future begins the summer of 2015, unless we pull a rabbit out the hat..

    4. lavor postell

      A possible 2015-16 roster: Mills(3.5m)/Shump (4m)/Jones (2.5m)/Hibbert (16m)/Millsap (13m)/Pau (8m)/Cole (2m)/2015 draft pick/Chandler pick and we would still have about 13m in cap if we could unload JR/Felton.

      I guess you’re assuming Hibbert opts out of the last year of his deal to enter free agency. Either way I have no desire to add a diva like Roy Hibbert to this team at $16m and then watch his game go completely off the rails once he gets some criticism from the media. This is a guy who crumbled under the heat and pressure of playing in fucking Indiana. God only knows what would happen if he started playing for the Knicks.

      If we Marc Gasol isn’t a possibility I’d like to see us go after Robin Lopez. He’s a high IQ player who was one of the main reasons Portland went from a 33-win lottery team to a 54-win second round exit. He’s not a complete zero on offense with a decent enough post game and respectable mid-range jumper and he was a main factor in helping improve Portland’s defensive efficiency from 26th in the league to 16th last year.

    5. Zanzibar

      I guess you’re assuming Hibbert opts out of the last year of his deal to enter free agency. Either way I have no desire to add a diva like Roy Hibbert to this team at $16m and then watch his game go completely off the rails once he gets some criticism from the media. This is a guy who crumbled under the heat and pressure of playing in fucking Indiana. God only knows what would happen if he started playing for the Knicks…If Marc Gasol isn’t a possibility I’d like to see us go after Robin Lopez. He’s a high IQ player who was one of the main reasons Portland went from a 33-win lottery team to a 54-win second round exit. He’s not a complete zero on offense with a decent enough post game and respectable mid-range jumper and he was a main factor in helping improve Portland’s defensive efficiency from 26th in the league to 16th last year.

      If Phil could handle Andrew Bynum, he could handle Hibbert. Hibbert would have to play really well next season and then decide it would be right time to opt-out. Robin Lopez would be a nice choice but wouldn’t make our defense elite. Hibbert’s able to post up on both left and right blocks because of his left or right-handed baby hook. Lopez’s been terrible shooting from 10-16ft and you don’t want him taking shots in the 16 to 3 range.

    6. lavor postell

      @ Zanzibar

      Yeah I’ll admit that my idea of Lopez’s offensive game is based on minimal viewing, but I think he definitely is a very good defensive center who won’t cost the max. Hibbert is a terrible offensive player who doubles as the biggest crybaby in the league and constantly needs to be coddled by teammates and coach. Bynum was a headcase, but I don’t think he was ever accused of going into month long depressions or did he have issues with anxiety. I can’t see Hibbert succeeding in New York, I doubt he’s going to opt out of the last year of his max deal since he’s not going to get that kind of money again based on last season and if he is I’d prefer not to be the team that gives it to him.

    7. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

      http://knickerblogger.net/d-day-2011-who-will-the-knicks-choose/#comments

      Oh yeah, everyone was SO high on Leonard. I like the part where latke says that he’ll never be even an average NBA player, saying that he’s unathletic and unskilled. Then someone says that he could be a “better defending Fields.” Then Z-man says that he’s glad Kawhi’s gone (ostensibly so we didn’t waste a pick on him). A few posters thought he was a good value, and the rest saying that Hill-for-Leonard was a good trade (it wasn’t), etc.

      I remember the first time I accurately predicted the Knicks’ record (36-30) and jon abbey said, “Even a broken watch is right twice a day.” How many times has this broken watch been right?

      The guy that Z-man was happy was off the draft board just won Finals MVP. Eat the crow, Z-man. Taste it.

    8. Hubert

      So feel free to say I told you so to Latke and Z-Man. No need to act like all the dunces were in confederacy against you. A lot of people here actually agree with you at the time you say things. Sometimes I’m in your camp, sometimes I’m not. I don’t get the need for this raging I told you so stuff.

      Oh and I still think you predicted 47 wins for the Knicks this season, but I’m not going back to find it. :)

    9. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

      I think my final prediction was 40-42. Maybe 41-41. I have said many times that had I access to a legal sportsbook I would have bet several thousand dollars on the Knicks’ under this year. No way would I have bet even ten bucks on Under 50 if I thought they’d win 47.

    10. Hubert

      Can I throw a random grenade into the Jordan-LeBron stuff? From Bill Simmons, on four finals in a row:

      Reason 3: Playing in four straight Finals is the NBA’s version of running a marathon, doing a triathlon, scaling a 15,000-foot mountain and finishing a Tough Mudder in back-to-back months. (You can do it; you’d just be a lunatic.) Wade, Bosh and James played five seasons in four when you incorporate those 87 playoff games; combined, they played over 10,000 more minutes than Duncan, Parker and Ginobili since 2010-11.

      And it’s not just the physical toll — many times in the playoffs, they looked like they didn’t have much fun playing together. On Monday, Chris Bosh confirmed as much, telling an AP writer, “I don’t think anybody really enjoyed this season like in years past. There was no, like, genuine joy all the time. It seemed like work. It was a job the whole year.”

      Just ask the 2004 Lakers (three straight losses), 1991 Lakers (three straight losses), 1991 Pistons (sweep), 2011 Lakers (sweep) and 1996 Rockets (sweep) — all of their “runs” ended ignominiously, only we were saying to the bitter end, They’ll be fine; they won’t go out this way. And they usually do. One of MJ’s greatest moves may have been not returning to the ’99 Bulls. It would have happened to him too.

      Funny how no one seems to ever mention that Jordan quit, twice, rather than try to attempt this. Is he 6-0 in NBA Finals if he doesn’t quit after his third one, twice? I highly doubt it.

      Let me say it again: Jordan QUIT…TWICE…rather than attempt to do what LeBron just tried to do, probably because he knew it was impossible. And yet we hold it against LeBron and just omit that not minor detail whenever talking about how Jordan was never beaten in a Final.

      Maybe LeBron should have taken this year off to preserve his legacy, like MJ did at that point in his career.

      The real (only) mark against LeBron in this debate, IMO, is his 2010 stinkbomb v Dallas.

    11. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

      It’s not impossible, but it’s very, very difficult.

      We’ve all already said it, but the Spurs played near-perfect NBA basketball this series. Fatigue is a factor in the Heat’s loss, but it’s not the only factor.

      And Jordan played a ton of minutes in ’89 and ’90 with deep playoff runs in each. He led the league in playoff FGA for five consecutive seasons, up until his first retirement. Let’s not pretend that an additional 7-game series is the thing that brings a player (or group of players) beyond the point of no return.

    12. Hubert

      Actually…

      Would it really be THAT crazy if LeBron took a year off right now? He isn’t winning anything if he opts in to Miami, and his body can’t possibly be in the best shape to start a new challenge.

      Hell, if I’m him, I’d go join Real Madrid in Spain or some other rich European club, make 50 million euro for a year while playing in half the amount of games and 5% of the travel (and making a mockery of the NBA’s max salary system), and come back richer and refreshed in 2015…for the Knicks, of course, with Melo re-signed at a reasonable deal.

      I know that will never happen in a million years but it’s not as crazy as it sounds.

    13. lavor postell

      It’s not impossible, but it’s very, very difficult.

      We’ve all already said it, but the Spurs played near-perfect NBA basketball this series. Fatigue is a factor in the Heat’s loss, but it’s not the only factor.

      And Jordan played a ton of minutes in ’89 and ’90 with deep playoff runs in each. He led the league in playoff FGA for five consecutive seasons, up until his first retirement. Let’s not pretend that an additional 7-game series is the thing that brings a player (or group of players) beyond the point of no return.

      I agree with this. Lebron played less total games in his 4 Miami years than Jordan did from the 89-90 season through the 92-93 season.

      Also Lebron is really good, but until his beats the MONSTARS in an intergalactic duel he can’t challenge Jordan for the throne.

    14. Hubert

      Let’s not pretend that an additional 7-game series is the thing that brings a player (or group of players) beyond the point of no return.

      True. But it’s not like LeBron wasn’t working hard prior to 2010, either.

      The thing is I think it’s disingenuous to ignore those two years off and the impact they made in crafting Jordan’s legacy. But we largely do.

    15. DRed

      Those old threads are hilarious. Who the hell is Chris Singleton? And all you Biyombo lovers-theres always a chance we can make it right with Bismack.

    16. Hubert

      Another added benefit (to LeBron) to my crazy “take a year off” idea…

      Everyone who thinks he plays for an all star team world would get to see just how much dead weight he was hauling.

      Even in the horrible east, I’m not sure that cast could make the playoffs next year without him.

    17. Nick C.

      Those old threads are hilarious. Who the hell is Chris Singleton? And all you Biyombo lovers-theres always a chance we can make it right with Bismack.

      Did you notice how few recognizable names there were among the posters.

    18. Owen

      Those threads were hilarious, score one for BigBlueAl…Demerits for Latke…

      BigBlueAL
      June 23, 2011 at 8:41 pm
      latke:
      Kawhi Leonard will never be even an average nba player. Guaranteed.

      Hollinger’s player rater has him as a historically good lock to have a solid NBA career.

    19. BigBlueAL

      Dont score one for me, score one for Hollinger. Although he was also very high on Chris Singleton and have no clue what the hell has happened to him lol. Still like Shump and hope he isnt traded and gets to play next season under Fisher.

    20. BigBlueAL

      Actually if I remember correctly ALOT of statistical models were very high on Kawhi, its why I was getting pretty excited when he started dropping but of course he didnt drop enough to fall to the Knicks.

    21. Frank

      lol I just read through my old comments from that thread – hoping for Shumpert, Markieff Morris, or Kemba Walker. I guess all 3 have been ok picks. I did say that Faried would be no more than a solid rotation player… which is what he is — but I also said I wouldn’t be upset if he were the pick.

    22. Frank

      So all kinds of trade rumors out there now – even one out of Golden State suggesting that GS is interested in Tyson Chandler and are trying to cook up schemes to land Kevin Love, perhaps by sending Lee, Klay Thompson, and a #1 to Minny for Love and Kevin Martin.

      Perhaps we could get in on that act by adding Tyson and JR to the mix?

      Would anyone do this:

      We get: Andrew Bogut and his 3 more years (but potential to be franchise center good in triangle), Draymond Green, and filler that expires in 2015 (ie. Ronny Turiaf)

      GS gets: Love, Chandler, JR Smith

      Minny gets: David Lee, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, GS #1 pick

      Who says no?

    23. SJK

      We’d be better off trying to trade Chandler to a team like OKC for a mid-late first this year. I don’t think we want an injury prone center on a long term contract.

    24. stratomatic

      Frank,

      I did say that Faried would be no more than a solid rotation player… which is what he is — but I also said I wouldn’t be upset if he were the pick.

      I love this quote because it highlights a very interesting dilemma when it comes to valuing players using stats when they are coming out of college.

      I don’t mean this as a criticism of your opinion. I could easily be wrong. However, when Faried was coming out, I was hoping the Knicks would take him because I thought he was going to be a way above average player. Now that he’s had a few seasons in the league, I think he is. I think he’s easily the most important player on the Nuggets (maybe Lawson has become the most important now that Miller is gone and they have no backup PG).

      Point being, the statistical model I used to evaluate his contributions as a college player is very similar to the one I use to evaluate pro players. In both cases it says he’s a very underrated and a well above average player. In your case, I’m assuming the mental model you used to evaluate him college is similar to now so you still think he’s just a solid rotation player.

      I’ve seen that among well known stats guys also.

      One says “We recommended that team X draft player Y because he was so productive in college. We were right!”.

      But when you look at that same player with a different model the other guy says “He was overrated in college and is still clearly overrated”.

      There is no objective way to measure the quality of draft picks.

    25. stratomatic

      We get: Andrew Bogut and his 3 more years (but potential to be franchise center good in triangle), Draymond Green, and filler that expires in 2015 (ie. Ronny Turiaf)

      No Bogut for 3 years for me. He may not last 3 weeks.

    26. Hubert

      You know, the whole time I’ve been OK with Melo going to the Bulls, it was because I didn’t think he would win anything with them.

      But things are going to be wide open next year, and Chicago could be good enough to actually make the Finals depending on what happens in Miami. And San Antonio may not be up to the task again, either.

      That would just be fucked up.

      Then again, I’ll believe Derrick Rose isn’t finished when I see it.

    27. The Ghost of Ted Nelson

      @27– What is your criticism with the board, re: the 2011 draft? Crockett put Faried as the #1 choice at #17 for NY, and almost all the commenters except a very few agreed with him. (Only one or two people out of dozens seemed to prefer Selby). (Your post was sarcastic, right?)

      Far more interesting in that thread was the talk of Jeremy Tyler.

    28. Frank

      @29 – THCJ has a fascination with straw men and he just loves to attack them.

      @28 – Chicago would be very tough with Melo if it’s done as a sign and trade and they don’t need to dump Taj Gibson for nothing. A starting lineup that includes a health Rose, Melo, Gibson, and Noah would be pretty impressive in the East. I’d still somehow like to foist JR and/or Felton onto them somehow, but who knows if that’s doable. One can only hope (if Melo really wants to leave) that Reinsdorf is too cheap to just amnesty Boozer, and would rather give 1st round picks away instead.

    29. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

      Ted,

      Most of the posts are ambivalent at best. It’s usually, “I’d be okay with Faried, but I’d rather have Singleton, ex-Net Sean Williams,” and so on. Very few enthusiastic posters who thought the Knicks’d hit a home run at #17.

      And compared to what they got, Faried would have been just that. Shumpert may have shown flashes of elite defense, but he’s among the worst scoring guards in the league. Blame it on the coach, the system, his teammates, whatever: that equals losses in today’s NBA.

      And Frank, I don’t need to make a straw man with your comment at #2. I know you all get pissy when I demand that you admit that I was right (and I’m right more often than not on the big things on this board, whether you like it or not) and I get pissy that you won’t admit it, but hey: I’m still right. Shumpert’s been a wash, Leonard’s been outstanding, and Singleton and Selby have been irrelevant and terrible, respectively.

      Get mad, but I’m right.

    30. lavor postell

      This is an uncharacteristically awesome move. Brewer’s got a career WP48 of 0.216. If he even comes close to returning to pre-’11 form, this could be the steal of free agency.

      http://knickerblogger.net/knicks-sign-ronnie-brewer/
      .
      While he fell considerably short of his lofty career standards I’m not sure why the Knicks dumped Brewer and his .132 WP/48 and kept Melo and his .044 WP48 last year. Imagine the damage they could have done with Brewer.

    31. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

      More QED stuff from lavor postell…

      When your criticism of a statistic is that OF COURSE Carmelo Anthony is more productive than Ronnie Brewer so OF COURSE the statistic is flawed, there is no room for argument whatsoever.

      But I think I’ve already said this a few times over the last … seven years or so on this site.

      E.g. OF COURSE Kawhi Leonard is a product of his system and teammates and coaching, so OF COURSE he’s less valuable than Tony Parker so OF COURSE WP48 is a flawed statistic, overrating the former and underrating the latter.

      OF COURSE we can continue this debate in a constructive manner after you OF COURSE make arguments based on eyetest-established standards of player value.

    32. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

      Here’s a great post about statistics and probability by Mike from way back in the day, responding to you, Frank:

      http://knickerblogger.net/espn-reporting-david-lee-to-be-a-knick-in-2009-10/#comment-279317

      This lays out my whole practical philosophy toward WP48, right here. Does WP48 ever have it wrong? Sure, but basing personnel moves on that admittedly-flawed statistic is a better gamble than throwing a draft pick at Selby or a max contract at Joe Johnson. Or making stupid moves like that, as the Knicks have over the last twelve or so years.

    33. Frank

      lol @THCJ
      ok fine.

      I will give you credit on the disaster that was 2013-14.
      I will give you credit on the Bargnani trade – I was ambivalent about (ie. not totally against) the trade and obviously you were right.

      but–

      I will not give you credit for your prediction on 2012-13, since 2 of the 3 major reasons WOW thought the Knicks would be so good were actually non factors (Ronnie Brewer and Marcus Camby).

      I still won’t believe that Faried is that great, since when he’s on the floor (with the starters mostly), the Nuggets aren’t significantly better than when he’s off, and in 13-14 they were actually significantly worse with him on the floor (despite the fact his main replacement was Darrell Arthur, he of the 49.5 TS). Like another guy who seems to know how to game “advanced stats” — James Harden – he gives back more on the defensive end than he gives you on the offensive end.

      Here’s a great analysis from Dylan Murphy about how stats miss Faried’s (negative) impact:

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1973645-the-hidden-downside-of-kenneth-farieds-dominant-rebounding

    34. lavor postell

      You’re right Ronnie Brewer who got traded by the Knicks, then waived by the Thunder and signed to a non-guaranteed vet. min. by the Bulls and unlikely to be brought back next season is better than Carmelo Anthony was last year. No doubt.

      Also I’ve never once argued that Kawhi Leonard is good because of Tony Parker’s shot creation. I think Leonard’s really fucking good on his own, but his shooting efficiency would drop if he was asked to be the primary option offensively though he’d still be a very good offensive player. On top of how good he is defensively he looks destined to be an elite player in the NBA for a long time.

    35. stratomatic

      Jowles,

      There’s a better explanation.

      IMO Brewer is not a more skilled or better player than Melo. Melo is WAY more skilled. However, Brewer contributes more value as a SG than Melo does as a SF/PF. The reason he can be way less skilled and still be statistically more valuable is that SF/PFs generally contribute way more value than SGs. Brewer and Melo are not being compared to each other. They are being compared to the norms for their respective positions. On that basis, Brewer was better (well really he started off great and then was mediocre).

      The problem with Brewer is that he’s not a scorer at all. Typically, teams are built to get outside shooting, floor spacing, ball handling, and scoring from their smaller men (especially SGs). In order to get the full value out of Brewer you would need an unconventional team construction where the typical outside shooting and scoring skills of SGs are located elsewhere. But no team is going to build around Brewer. So Brewer finds himself in the position of being a very valuable player with nowhere to play.

      That’s how Brewer can be statistically more valuable than Melo but not as skilled and with no team to play on. It’s no great mystery when you explain the system to people that misunderstand it.

    36. DRed

      Here’s a great analysis from Dylan Murphy about how stats miss Faried’s (negative) impact:

      Not sure how that’s great analysis. He might be right, but there’s not much in that article backing up his arguments.

    37. Frank

      Here’s a great post about statistics and probability by Mike from way back in the day, responding to you, Frank:

      This lays out my whole practical philosophy toward WP48, right here. Does WP48 ever have it wrong? Sure, but basing personnel moves on that admittedly-flawed statistic is a better gamble than throwing a draft pick at Selby or a max contract at Joe Johnson. Or making stupid moves like that, as the Knicks have over the last twelve or so years.

      Actually – that whole back and forth between me and Mike is exactly what is wrong with a strategy based completely on WP48 – blindly following statistics without asking the why. Anyone can look at a number on a page – only the smart ones can figure out why a number turned out the way it did. The discussion on that thread you linked to was about the “statistical study” that showed that “increase in minutes doesn’t change PER” — when in fact it just said there was no statistically significant correlation between minutes and PER, which is NOT the same thing. In the study in question something like 70% of players actually had the same or better PER when given more minutes, and ~30% had worse PERs when given more minutes. Someone who relies just on looking at numbers might say “ok, at least we’ll be right 70% of the time” whereas someone who wants to look deeper might ask “what is it about those 30% of players caused them to get worse with more minutes?” “What factors were involved? Did their shot types change? Are they out of shape? Did they change roles?” etc. It is NOT luck when a player doesn’t pan out, like it might be in blackjack

      So yes – if you’re going to go after the straw man of Josh Selby or a max Joe Johnson, then yes, blindly following WP48 is better than picking Josh Selby in the 1st round or maxing out a 30 year old Joe Johnson (who incidentally was probably the best player on the Nets this year). But that’s not what I was saying.

    38. Frank

      Not sure how that’s great analysis. He might be right, but there’s not much in that article backing up his arguments.

      other than the fact that the Nuggets are always worse on defense when Faried is on the floor.

    39. Frank

      Brewer is designated as a SF

      not to mention that the whole point of WP48 is to normalize between positions, right? (if I somehow am wrong about this, sorry).

    40. lavor postell

      Denver allowed a 52.3 eFG% with Faried on the floor and 47.0 eFG% when he was off the floor. They were a -3.0 net per 100 possessions with him on the floor and a net -1.1 per 100 when he was off the floor.

    41. stratomatic

      Brewer is designated as a SF

      I believe when he played in NY, Brewer was designated as a SG and Melo was designated as a SF/PF. If my memory is incorrect and Brewer was designated as SF, then Melo was designated as a PF and the same issue is in play.

      As a PF, Melo is being compared to players that tend to rebound better, be more efficient scorers, turn the ball over less etc… than other positions. Therefore he has a tougher hurdle to reach to exceed the replacement value of his position than Brewer does. He can play way better, but add less value.

      Brewer on the other hand does some things well that contribute a lot of value relative to typical small man. But he has no position to play because teams want scoring form the SG/SF and he can’t score.

    42. Frank

      Wow – sounding more and more like Love might go to the Dubs.

      If I’m Golden State I look hard at somehow getting Tyson Chandler. I’m not sure how you stop a 4-out attack centered around Tyson/Curry PNR with Love and Martin shooting 3′s and Iguodala as a jack-of-all-trades. And Tyson is great next to Love.

    43. stratomatic

      not to mention that the whole point of WP48 is to normalize between positions, right? (if I somehow am wrong about this, sorry).

      That’s where you guys are getting confused. They are calculating value relative to the norms of the position. IMO unadjusted WP48 is telling you is actually better. Also, the system concedes that team construction is important.

    44. lavor postell

      If Minnesota trades Love, Martin, Barea and the fucking 13th pick for Thompson and David Lee Silver should veto the trade for basketball reasons. There’s no way GSW should be getting Love and a lottery pick in a stacked draft for that package.

    45. SJK

      That seemed like a bogus rumor. The more likely deal is Martin and Love for Lee, Klay, and a future first.

    46. JK47

      Kenneth Faried happens to be awesome at things that show up in a box score (getting rebounds, scoring efficiently) and terrible at things that don’t show up in a box score (defensive rotations, contesting shots, getting back in transition).

      He’s still a good player, but it’s pretty goddamn stubborn to pretend that his value is not inflated if you only go by box score stats.

    47. johnno

      @8 Hubert — nice job bringing up the Ignatius Reilly reference. No one else picked up on that!

    48. thenamestsam

      That seemed like a bogus rumor. The more likely deal is Martin and Love for Lee, Klay, and a future first.

      The first would have to be pretty far in the future right? Golden State already dealt a bunch of picks last year to open the cap space to get Iggy. I really hate that trade for Minnesota and I’m probably as low on Kevin Love as anyone (i.e. I think he’s really good but more like a top 15 guy than top 3) . That’s such a short term focused move. Lee is obviously overpaid but he’ll still help you win games in the short run. And Klay…is good. Maybe even really good given the relative shortage at shooting guard. But he’s two years away from being paid in a way that’s going to basically eliminate his value. He’s going to be in that weird not-quite-max salary zone where a lot of good players end up on contracts that make them not quite albatrosses, but not quite assets either. So they’d be getting two guys who would help keep them in the 8th seed race next year, and one long term asset. Doesn’t make any sense to me. That team wasn’t good enough to compete in a loaded conference with Love, without him they should definitely be looking to rebuild. I’d much rather have the pick potpourri from Boston.

    49. ephus

      First pick that GSW can trade is 2019, because Utah has the 2014 & 2017 first round picks. No telling where that pick would fall.

    50. stratomatic

      Kenneth Faried happens to be awesome at things that show up in a box score (getting rebounds, scoring efficiently) and terrible at things that don’t show up in a box score (defensive rotations, contesting shots, getting back in transition).

      He’s still a good player, but it’s pretty goddamn stubborn to pretend that his value is not inflated if you only go by box score stats.

      I wouldn’t argue with that analysis, but until someone is actually tracking those things and can quantify their value on the results, we are sort of speculating about how much value that detracts.

      I know some oh his on/off court stats are not very good, but a lot of that is dependent on other substitutions. I’ve followed the Nuggets closely since the Melo trade. When Faried is injured or playing hurt and way below par, the Nuggets are horrible. The only time they are worse is when Lawson is out…and even that only became an issue when they lost Miller. So maybe the boxscore stats are not capturing his value correctly, but IMO it’s not far off.

    51. lavor postell

      @ephus

      If I’m not mistaken GSW could trade their 2015 pick once the 2014 draft is finished right? I guess that trade would have to go down after July 1st though.

    52. ephus

      Zach Lowe had a nice piece on Faried’s progress. I think he is an asset, but I do not pretend to know whether his ceiling is solid rotation player or integral cog on a championship contender. If he developed a 3 point shot during this off-season, even just to Jared Jeffries level, he would make it much harder to ignore him outside of the paint.

      He is such an amazing athlete that I believe he could develop that shot with practice. Not talking about Ray Allen/Reggie Miller type movement and curls, just the Larry Johnson type catch and shoot.

    53. Hubert

      Pat Riley seemed desperate and in denial in his press conference.

      But…

      LeBron opting in would be great. He would be giving the heat one more chance, one they would obviously blow bc Wade is toast and Bosh isn’t that good anymore.

      That would free him to come here next year, assuming Melo isn’t playing for the Bulls.

    54. ephus

      Yes, the Warriors could trade their 2015 first round pick after July 1. Stephen rule only looks forward, not back.

    55. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

      Why doesn’t LeBron just take the mid-level/max 1-year contract with a different contending team for the next five years, guess correctly on three of those teams being championship-worthy, and cement his legacy by being the “difference maker” on four different teams in his career?

      I’m not saying I want to see what LeBron would do as a one-year-contract player on the Spurs, but– no, I really want to see what LeBron does on a one-year contract with the Spurs.

      Or Clippers. Or Thunder.

      Fuck competitive balance. Kemba Walker and Kyrie Irving are fun to watch; I don’t need their teams to actually win anything. Give me the best basketball ever played, please.

    56. dtrickey

      We get: Andrew Bogut and his 3 more years (but potential to be franchise center good in triangle), Draymond Green, and filler that expires in 2015 (ie. Ronny Turiaf)

      Being an Australian I would love Bogut on the Knicks (throw some cash at Patty Mills please!!), however from a basketball point it could be a risky move given the 3 years and his injury history. He’s certainly a good center (he was pushing for all star selection with the Bucks before he mangled his elbow) when healthy though and doesn’t need to score to be effective.

      On the Melo front, the more I read, the more I think he does a Chris Paul and opt out to put the feelers out only to come back. Obviously he’s not going to unequivocally say he’s going to just re-sign as that would compromise his bargaining position.

      Also is anyone else digging the new Hornets uni’s? My childhood just came rushing back in a glorious wave of nostalgia. Might have to pull out the Hornets windbreaker and watch Space Jam.

    57. BigBlueAL

      Are the Bulls really a better long-term option for Melo than the Knicks?? I know Thibs is a great coach and they have Noah, Butler and Gibson. But who knows about Rose’s future and the Bulls front office have always been very cheap in terms of going into the luxery tax.

      I would be a bit disappointed in Melo if he left the Knicks for the Bulls. That doesnt seem like such a slam dunk decision to me especially if the Bulls are forced to make moves to get cap room. I certainly see the allure of going to Houston especially if they can also keep Parsons. That would be a pretty deadly top 4 (granted defensively they would probably suck and not sure if McHale is a coach who can take them over the top). I could see Melo looking at them and thinking thats a great young core to play with. Obviously going to Miami to play with them is understandable too. But I dunno the thought of Melo leaving to play with the Bulls annoys me more than any other possible destination for him.

    58. JK47

      If the Bulls gut their team to get Melo, you just have to shake your head and laugh. They would have an awful lot of cap space invested in Derrick Rose’s knees and Melo’s decline phase.

    59. Kahnzy

      If the Bulls gut their team to get Melo, you just have to shake your head and laugh. They would have an awful lot of cap space invested in Derrick Rose’s knees and Melo’s decline phase.

      Boy that sounds eerily familiar.

    60. Z-man

      Jowles, I liked Shump over Kawhi but liked Kawhi as well. You never heard me saying that Kawhi sucked. And very early on in his rookie year, I came around on Kawhi and only sung his praises since.

      You still hate Shump, even though he would be a solid rotation player on any team in the league, including the Spurs. He’s not quite 24, only a year older than Leonard, so the jury is still out on him. If Kawhi fell to us, you think he develops the same way in the Knicks traveling circus, especially if he tears his ACL and has Woodson as his coach and all of your Knick faves as his teammates?

      He’s definitely better than Shumpert, but as I said before, if you were GM you would have passed him over for your beloved Faried, who exemplifies the downside of WP48. You never mentioned Leonard as a choice until someone else criticized him. Wouldn’t passing over him for Faried have been a big mistake, o great one?

    61. ephus

      I love how this board devolves into the Judean People’s Front vs. The People’s Front for the Liberation of Judea when we do not have games to react to.

      Follow the Way of the Gourd!

    62. dtrickey

      LeBron opting in would be great. He would be giving the heat one more chance, one they would obviously blow bc Wade is toast and Bosh isn’t that good anymore.

      I meant to add this to my previous comment, but Miami needs LeBron more than LeBron needs Miami obviously. I know they didn’t achieve the lofty heights they predicted, but 4 Finals appearances in a row for 2 chips is pretty freakin good, so I think he could be content (key word) with what he’s done at South Beach. Even if LeBron jumps ship I think you can still field a pretty decent team around Bosh and Crippled Wade. Move on the geriatrics for one.

      Bogut was pretty tremendous for the Warriors last year, but he was hurt and/or ineffective for the three previous seasons. One good year out of the last four… I think I’d pass on that one.

      Bogut is an intriguing element, and I’m not just saying that as a fellow countryman and someone who got schooled by the rep team he used to play for down here. If that 3 years weren’t attached and you could get him for a relatively good price, I legitimately believe he could be the missing piece that takes a playoff team to a contender…..again national bias could be in play here ha ha

    63. Frank

      boy everyone seems to think Melo is zeroing in on Chicago. I just hope that if that happens we get a S&T out of it, at least dumping a salary like Felton and getting a pick back.

      Chicago has mid-1st rounders available, and Berman is writing that Phil is really interested in PJ Hairston, who is likely to be a mid-late 1st rounder…

    64. Brian Cronin

      That’s the thing that gets me, Frank, is that not only does it seem like he’s possibly going to go there, but it sounds like they’re planning on using their first rounders to clear out space and are thus not even exploring a significant sign and trade (more like “well, we’re going to sign him with or without you, so better for you to take this poo poo platter than nothing at all.”

      I’ve long held to a “Don’t begrudge Melo for leaving even though I don’t think he is leaving” viewpoint, but if he leaves the Knicks and they end up with nothing but, like, a single first rounder and Carlos Boozer for a year, then yeah, I think I’ll begrudge the guy a bit. ;)

    65. lavor postell

      Noah and Thibs are great and all but if you’re going to gamble I’d rather gamble on Phil retooling the Knicks next summer over Rose’s knees. That’s just me though. Anyways I don’t buy this idea that they’re going to just trade the picks away and amnesty Boozer to clear out space for Melo. If you’re telling Reinsdorf that he can either eat $16.2m and trade away picks to sign Melo or he can sign-and-trade Melo to the Knicks for Boozer, the picks and Butler he’s definitely going to take the second option. This is a guy who is so petrified at the thought of spending money that he’s only paid the luxury tax once in his entire tenure as owner and traded away Luol Deng for the possibility of a first rounder and the non-guaranteed contract of Andrew Bynum.

    66. Brian Cronin

      I think even Reinsdorf can appreciate that the amnesty money could be written off as part of the fact that he’d be getting Melo at a discount. So the money you’re “throwing away” for Boozer is the same money you’re saving by not paying Melo full market value. So if you can get him to agree to that (and I think even a cheap loser like him would), then that’s all you need to convince the Knicks that he would be willing to do that. And if you do that, then that’s enough to get the Knicks to take your shitty offer, as Boozer and a pick is better than nothing for Melo. So by agreeing to waste the money, you likely avoid actually having to do it.

    67. Hubert

      I know Thibs is a great coach

      I don’t.

      I’ve said for a long time he’s the defensive Mike D’Antoni.

      And I’m sorry, but the crazy idea I’ve put forth all year about LeBron opting in for one for more season and then leaving the Heat because they aren’t built to last and don’t have the resources to address that….. suddenly doesn’t seem crazy!

      This is the reason to keep Melo. And if I’m Phil, my pitch is this: sign here for the same amount of money you could get from Chicago or Houston (i.e. not the super max), spend this year learning the triangle and becoming the player I want you to be, next year we add LeBron and supporting pieces and you will deliver on the promise you made when you got here. Obviously Melo can talk to LeBron about it. And give him Melo your word that if it doesn’t work out, you’ll trade him in a year (which we would want to anyway).

      As an aside, it pisses me off that Melo is getting 1/1,000,000th of the grief LeBron gets for considering changing teams. People seem to be encouraging him to leave, whereas if LeBron leaves he’s some kind of punk. It’s unbelievable how much people hate on LeBron and shade things against the knicks.

      Unlike LeBron, Melo’s fingerprints are ALL OVER the disaster that his team currently is.

    68. Hubert

      Might have to pull out the Hornets windbreaker and watch Space Jam.

      Not gonna lie, I was a diehard Knicks fan but I owned a Hornets Starter Jacket back in 1991. I was 14, and it was the cool thing to have.

    69. Brian Cronin

      I didn’t begrudge Lebron leaving Cleveland at all. And if he leaves Miami, I won’t begrudge him that, either.

      Melo I will only begrudge if he leaves the Knicks without them getting a goodly return for him. Sadly, the recent indications are is that is how he is leaning. Which is kind of fucked up.

      Hopefully he still re-signs here for a discount. I still think that that is the most likely scenario (but the Chicago scenario is gaining a lot of traction).

    70. Hubert

      Also, re: Thibs, I mean, he hates his GM/owner and was on the verge of being shipped to Memphis before Memphis did a 180 and stuck with Joerger just a month ago, right?

      If Melo bolts to join the Bulls and Rose goes the way of Amar’e and Thibs high tails it out of town like he’s been trying to for years and Reinsdorf refuses to spend the money to get him a supporting cast (and let’s be honest, all three of those things aren’t remote possibilities), he will go down in history as the NBA player who most mismanaged his career.

    71. lavor postell

      @BC

      I guess. I could live with getting two picks at least for Melo. Obviously not the greatest return, but it would at least give us a couple of young guys to start the rebuild with and we’d still suck next year so our pick would be relatively high.

    72. Hubert

      Melo I will only begrudge if he leaves the Knicks without them getting a goodly return for him. Sadly, the recent indications are is that is how he is leaning. Which is kind of fucked up.

      Yeah, those scenarios in which Chicago uses it’s picks to send Boozer to another team instead of dealing with us are fucked up.

      But let’s not forget there is probably a ton of residual bitterness between Reinsdorf and Phil, and Reinsdorf probably wants to do it that way. If Melo complies with it, well… I don’t want to think about how that would make me feel.

    73. lavor postell

      I still think Melo’s pulling a Kobe and at the last minute will re-sign with the Knicks for some middle ground contract between the supermax and Phil’s wet dream Melo contract.

    74. Hubert

      I didn’t begrudge Lebron leaving Cleveland at all. And if he leaves Miami, I won’t begrudge him that, either.

      Me, neither. But we don’t make the national narrative, and the national narrative isn’t even discussing how much of a dick move it would be for Melo’s final act as a Knick to be leaving for nothing and going to a major rival.

    75. Brian Cronin

      It is fair to worry about Rose’s injury, but there’s a very real possibility that Chicago can dump Boozer with both first round picks, trade Dunleavy for cap space and then offer Melo roughly $16 million. In that scenario, they would use the room exception to bring DJ Augustin back.

      They would then have a starting lineup of:

      Rose
      Butler
      Melo
      Gibson
      Noah

      with Augustin as a back-up point

      Plus Snell, Greg Smith and whoever other bottom feeders they get to sign to vet minimum.

      That’s a really, really good team and likely still a top three team in the East even if Rose gets hurt.

    76. Brian Cronin

      Me, neither. But we don’t make the national narrative, and the national narrative isn’t even discussing how much of a dick move it would be for Melo’s final act as a Knick to be leaving for nothing and going to a major rival.

      Oh true, if he leaves for nothing and goes to the Bulls, it’d be a total dick move but I think that the national media would give him some guff for it.

      SAS, though, would suck up to him. “If you’re CarMELO Anthony, you HAVE to go to Chicago. You HAVE to.”

    77. Zanzibar

      Relax everyone, I don’t think it’s technically possible to send Boozer/picks to another team in exchange for a 2nd round pick to free up cap. A 16m TPE would be created which would count against Chicago’s cap. A free agent may not be signed outright using that TPE. A free agent could be signed via a S&T using that TPE but that would have to be the Knicks.

      Chicago would have to find a team which has an existing 16m TPE to unload Boozer. But no such team exists. That’s why Morey will have trouble unloading Lin and Asik since there are only 3 teams which have 8m+ existing TPEs.

      This is my understanding of the CBA and I could be wrong, especially since everyone is floating dumping Boozer, Asik, Lin to any team which has cap space in exchange for picks. Again, my understanding is only teams which have existing TPEs which are large enough to absorb those contracts would be eligible. This is very important so if Ephus or Brian or someone else could clarify that might help.

    78. Hubert

      The national narrative, as best I can tell, is that Melo is stuck in a bad situation and the Knicks are perpetually abysmal and no one should blame him if he leaves this horrible team that doesn’t deserve him.

      The true story, of course, is that the Knicks were finally on the upswing for the first time in a decade when he got here, and if he leaves for nothing he will be leaving us in much worse shape than we were before he forced his way here.

    79. Hubert

      Relax everyone, I don’t think it’s technically possible to send Boozer/picks to another team in exchange for a 2nd round pick to free up cap. A 16m TPE would be created which would count against Chicago’s cap. A free agent may not be signed outright using that TPE. A free agent could be signed via a S&T using that TPE but that would have to be the Knicks.

      Chicago would have to find a team which has an existing 16m TPE to unload Boozer.

      Sorry, Zanzibar, but I’m pretty sure this isn’t true. Chicago just needs to find a team with cap space who is willing to take Boozer on for two first round picks, and he’s completely off their payroll and they’re under the cap.

      Having said that, $17 million is a VERY high cost for the 16th & 19th pick in the draft, right? I don’t think many teams would be jumping on that.

    80. lavor postell

      I actually don’t know if he’s right or wrong. The Warriors didn’t sign Iguodala outright. They actually traded the TPE they created when they sent Biedrins, Jefferson, Rush, two firsts and 3 seconds to Utah, in order to acquire Iguodala via sign-and-trade from Denver. Not sure though.

    81. Brian Cronin

      Relax everyone, I don’t think it’s technically possible to send Boozer/picks to another team in exchange for a 2nd round pick to free up cap. A 16m TPE would be created which would count against Chicago’s cap. A free agent may not be signed outright using that TPE. A free agent could be signed via a S&T using that TPE but that would have to be the Knicks.

      No, in that scenario, he’d be off the cap free and clear. It’s the same thing Chicago did by dumping Hinrich on to Washington for cap space and what Golden State did last year with Jefferson and Biedrins to get space to sign Iggy.

    82. Brian Cronin

      Having said that, $17 million is a VERY high cost for the 16th & 19th pick in the draft, right? I don’t think many teams would be jumping on that.

      I think Utah ended up with worse for taking on more salary in the Biedrins/Jefferson deal. For a team like Philly, for instance, who is still likely in rebuilding mode, such an offer would be quite tempting. Especially since they have to hit a salary cap floor anyways.

    83. lavor postell

      So did GSW just sign-and-trade for Iggy to give him a slightly bigger contract than they could offer?

    84. Brian Cronin

      So did GSW just sign-and-trade for Iggy to give him a slightly bigger contract than they could offer?

      Basically correct. I think that there might have been some other benefit to Golden State to do it as a sign and trade, but I think it was pretty much an accounting type thing, ya know?

    85. Zanzibar

      Even if I’m right, there might be another way for Chicago to free up the cap. They offer Boozer/picks in exchange for a non-guaranteed contract(s) totaling 8.5m. How many, if any, of those are there though?

      Keep in mind that trading for Melo versus signing outright allows Chicago to use the 5m MLE and 2m BAE versus the 2.7m room exception. If we play a game of chicken, we will lose. CBS reported 1 day before the Deng deal occurred that Chicago would trade Deng and amnesty Boozer in the summer. Boozer would be picked up by some team for 3m after being amnestied so the actual hit to Reinsdorf would be about 14m. He’ll eat that 14m to sign Melo and keep a championship potential team in tact. He’d recoup that money in playoff revenue alone from advancing a couple of extra rounds.

    86. lavor postell

      GSW really going for broke right now. They gave away a ton in that Iguodala trade and if they make this move for Love they’re definitely in win now mode. They have a really talented team, but good enough to win the West? The West is really fucking good. Is the West the deepest either conference has ever been before?

    87. Brian Cronin

      The West is excellent, but man, Love and Curry on a team together with Bogut and Iggy as the defenders? That’s a top team even in the West.

    88. Zanzibar

      No, in that scenario, he’d be off the cap free and clear. It’s the same thing Chicago did by dumping Hinrich on to Washington for cap space and what Golden State did last year with Jefferson and Biedrins to get space to sign Iggy.

      If that’s true, it seems to me there would no reason to have TPEs at all in the CBA. What purpose would they serve?

    89. lavor postell

      Not a lot behind them though right? Draymond and Harrison Barnes? I also worry a lot about Bogut’s ability to stay healthy. I really dislike Stephen A. but I heard him call him Andrew Bogus this year which gave me a good chuckle.

    90. Brian Cronin

      If that’s true, it seems to me there would no reason to have TPEs at all in the CBA. What purpose would they serve?

      They still have a lot of value, just not for every team. For a team over the cap, a TPE can be very valuable (the Nets used theirs this year, right?). However, for a team looking to clear cap space, they’re not helpful. In other words, you’re correct that the Boozer deal would create a TPE. However, Chicago can then just renounce it to get the cap room back, which is obviously what they would do. Long story short, the Bulls can deal Boozer for just cap space if they so choose.

    91. Zanzibar

      In other words, you’re correct that the Boozer deal would create a TPE. However, Chicago can then just renounced it to get the cap room back, which is obviously what they would do.

      How are you able to just renounce a TPE? Aren’t they required to stay on the cap for a year and then the unused amount after a year is removed from the cap?

    92. Brian Cronin

      How are you able to just renounce a TPE?

      The same way a team renounces their other exceptions, like the mid-level exception. The mid-level also counts against a team’s salary cap room until they renounce it.

      Also, if it were possible to dump salaries for 2nd-round picks, wouldn’t there be many more of those types of transactions? Surely, cheap GMs would use that ability to reduce payroll.

      It has to be worth it for the team taking on the player. It often is not. And as noted earlier, they occur often enough. The Knicks just did it the other year when they dumped Turiaf with a second rounder for cap space to sign Chandler.

    93. Zanzibar

      @Brian OK, the crux of the matter is whether the TPEs may be renounced right after the trade. I don’t recall the details of those prior transactions so I guess I’ll have to believe you. I reviewed Coon’s FAQ but it isn’t clear on this issue. The problem I have is that allowing a team over the cap to dump salary in this manner seems to be completely against the spirit of the CBA (e.g., 125% match versus 150% match).

    94. ephus

      Huge advantage to Carmelo Anthony if he moves to Chicago in a S&T instead of signing for cap space. Carmelo can sign for up to 125% of the outgoing salary plus 100k. If Boozer is involved, that is a 21.1 million base. He can get to the Max 22 million starting salary if Chicago includes the player drafted at 16 or 19 or Tony Snell.

      Chicago cannot clear 22 million cap space, even if they amnesty Boozer. If they ditched everyone (Dunleavy, Augustin, etc) they would be hard pressed to get to 17 million in space.

    95. Brian Cronin

      I reviewed Coon’s FAQ but it isn’t clear on this issue.

      Coon specifically addresses it here (emphasis added):

      So being under the cap does not necessarily mean a team has room to sign free agents. For example, assume the cap is $58 million, and a team has $51.5 million committed to salaries. They also have a Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception for $5 million and a trade exception for $5.5 million. Even though their salaries put them $6.5 million under the cap, their exceptions also count toward their team salary, increasing their total to $62 million, or $4 million over the cap. So the team actually has no cap room to sign free agents, and instead must use its exceptions to sign players.

      Teams have the option to renounce their exceptions in order to reclaim their cap room. So in the example above, if the team renounced their Traded Player and Mid-Level exceptions, then the $10.5 million is taken off their team salary, which then totals $51.5 million, leaving them with $6.5 million of cap room which then can be used to sign free agent(s).<

    96. Brian Cronin

      Huge advantage to Carmelo Anthony if he moves to Chicago in a S&T instead of signing for cap space. Carmelo can sign for up to 125% of the outgoing salary plus 100k. If Boozer is involved, that is a 21.1 million base. He can get to the Max 22 million starting salary if Chicago includes the player drafted at 16 or 19 or Tony Snell.

      Chicago cannot clear 22 million cap space, even if they amnesty Boozer. If they ditched everyone (Dunleavy, Augustin, etc) they would be hard pressed to get to 17 million in space.

      Agreed, which is why I think what Chicago does is say “We will trade Boozer, Dunleavy and picks for enough room to sign Melo outright, so if you want anything for Melo, agree to take Boozer and you’ll at least get a draft pick for your troubles.” That way Chicago gets to dump Boozer and Melo gets to make a lot more money.

    97. ephus

      But Melo can give the Knicks more leverage by saying he will only go for a S&T that brings the max salary, not a five million discount for space. Basically rank his preferences (non-knick) as 1: Chicago max, 2: Houston max, 3: Chicago space. If the Knicks would prefer getting Boozer, Snell, Dunleavy and/or the players selected by the Bulls this year to just letting Melo walk, they should be able to wrest that from Chicago.

    98. Zanzibar

      So in the example above, if the team renounced their Traded Player and Mid-Level exceptions, then the $10.5 million is taken off their team salary,

      That settles it! Bad news for Knicks not just regarding Chicago but also Morey would have a much easier time moving Lin’s contract. So we hope Melo forces Chicago to do a S/T for the following reasons: (1) Melo makes more money (2) Melo avoids PR hit and image problem if NYK receive no value especially given the way he arrived here (3) Chicago would have 5m mle and 2m bae versus 2.7m room exception to maybe sign Mirotic/Augustin or other players (4) Chicago could keep Dunleavy/Smith/Snell instead of having to shed their salaries to sign Melo.

    99. Brian Cronin

      But Melo can give the Knicks more leverage by saying he will only go for a S&T that brings the max salary, not a five million discount for space. Basically rank his preferences (non-knick) as 1: Chicago max, 2: Houston max, 3: Chicago space. If the Knicks would prefer getting Boozer, Snell, Dunleavy and/or the players selected by the Bulls this year to just letting Melo walk, they should be able to wrest that from Chicago.

      Oh definitely. That’s why I’m saying the only way I’ll begrudge Melo is if he doesn’t give the Knicks that leverage. If he leaves New York doing the opposite of what he did to come to New York? Then, well, seriously, fuck that guy.

    100. Hubert

      Huge advantage to Carmelo Anthony if he moves to Chicago in a S&T instead of signing for cap space. Carmelo can sign for up to 125% of the outgoing salary plus 100k. If Boozer is involved, that is a 21.1 million base. He can get to the Max 22 million starting salary if Chicago includes the player drafted at 16 or 19 or Tony Snell.

      Chicago cannot clear 22 million cap space, even if they amnesty Boozer. If they ditched everyone (Dunleavy, Augustin, etc) they would be hard pressed to get to 17 million in space.

      Wow. It would be utterly devastating if he was willing to sacrifice that much money to go there to help them keep all their assets in place.

    101. Hubert

      Typical Knicks, by the way. We set ourselves up for the summer of 2015, and all the moves are happening in 2014.

    102. Brian Cronin

      There really is no greater fit for the “Because ____” meme than the Knicks.

      “How’d that go so horribly wrong so quickly?” “Because Knicks.”

    103. Frank

      Agreed, which is why I think what Chicago does is say “We will trade Boozer, Dunleavy and picks for enough room to sign Melo outright, so if you want anything for Melo, agree to take Boozer and you’ll at least get a draft pick for your troubles.” That way Chicago gets to dump Boozer and Melo gets to make a lot more money.

      Forgive me if I’m missing something, but to give Melo a salary that is even remotely competitive (ie. >14-15MM/year), the Bulls would also have to dump Taj Gibson for essentially nothing — not so hard given he’s on a reasonable contract and is a very good player, but you’d be left with Melo having to play the 4, zero room for the semiannual Noah injury, and a bunch of minimum salary guys. Figure Thibs plays everyone 45 minutes/game, then the whole team breaks down.

      I can’t see how dumping everyone and signing him outright is a good plan for Chicago. They’d lose a bunch of draft picks AND Gibson. It seems far easier and sensible just to do a S&T for Melo. And as far as them having us over a barrel, I don’t really think that’s the case. I think Lebron will stay in Miami, which means that Houston will probably come calling for Melo, creating some semblance of competition. In addition, we all know Chicago does NOT want to stand pat, so there is some urgency on their side to get something done.

      I think ultimately this will come down to a semi-repeat of the MeloDrama except this time we’re in Denver’s seat: 1) A few teams want him. 2) The downside of signing as a FA = he’d take a huge pay cut (not to mention a whole lot more damage to his brand this time).

      Also – If Melo really wants to leave, would it be the worst thing in the world just to get cap relief and draft picks (say 2 #1s this year and some 2nds)? And if they must keep Butler (who I actually think is overrated – he’s not so much better than Shump IMO), then give us Snell and take Felton.

    104. Brian Cronin

      HoopsHype has the Bulls at $63 million for next year right now. Figure you add in, what, another $3 million for cap holds and that takes you to $66 million. The cap will be $63.2 million. Boozer is $16.8 million. Getting rid of Boozer gets you to $14 million under the cap. So they’d only need to get rid of Dunleavy’s $3 million to get to a $16 million opening salary for Melo.

    105. Brian Cronin

      It just doesn’t seem like there’s any way for us to get Chicago’s #1s this year

      It is an interesting situation but I think that the league wouldn’t look too much into a situation where the Knicks agree to deal Melo to Chicago for the two picks and the Bulls make the picks for the Knicks.

    106. Frank

      So in the final analysis – I would be ok with:

      Boozer + Snell + Ronnie Brewer + Dunleavy + #16/#19 and 2 future 2nds

      for

      Melo + Felton.

      Chicago gets to trot out a starting 5 of Rose, Butler, Melo, Gibson, Noah and not waste $ on a Boozer amnesty. They’d still have the mini-MLE

      We get a bunch of picks and to dump Felton’s contract.
      Who says no?

    107. Brian Cronin

      SJK does bring up an interesting point, Frank, that the Bulls theoretically can’t negotiate with the Knicks about Melo before the draft because Melo technically wouldn’t be a Knick then (I don’t think that the league would be too worried about it, though, so I’m not too concerned).

    108. Frank

      Boozer is $16.8 million. Getting rid of Boozer gets you to $14 million under the cap. So they’d only need to get rid of Dunleavy’s $3 million to get to a $16 million opening salary for Melo.

      They’d probably need to trade 3 1st round picks or more to get rid of those 2 contracts. Probably more, considering if they are planning to do this, other teams will know and can hold THEM over a barrel just like Morey did to us in the McGrady fiasco — not to mention Houston probably wants Melo too and will be looking to trade Lin/Asik for nada also so there would be competition even for that.

      I don’t think it’s practical on anyone’s part for them to do that. And Melo would take a big pay cut.

      Again – I’d think it’d be much much easier and far more likely for the two teams to deal with each other directly, with the parameters of a deal agreed upon prior to this draft. If it happens. I still think Melo’s coming back on an $18-20MM/year contract.

    109. Frank

      Let’s say Brian’s scenario happens.

      Chicago dumps all their players and draft picks to clear space for a sub-max Melo FA signing. Melo gets a 4 year 64MM contract from Chicago – a team with 2 major injury risks (Noah/Rose) and no draft picks or flexibility outside the mini-MLE, as well as an owner who historically will not pay the luxury tax. Maybe they get to the finals if Miami drops off, but they’d still be a huge underdog to San Antonio, OKC, probably the Clips, the Warriors if they get Love, etc. Melo’s deal expires after 2018 after which he’s 34 and might not get much more than an MLE-type contract — let’s say it’s even $8MM for 2 years — so 6 years, $80MM total

      Is that better for Melo than signing for 5 years, $90MM (18/year) with an outside chance at getting a $5-6MM/year x 2 years at age 35? He wouldn’t tarnish his brand, he’d get to hand-pick his running mates in 2015, etc.

      And if Melo goes to Chicago and doesn’t succeed, his brand (and post-career marketing opportunities) would take a huge hit IMHO.

    110. Zanzibar

      I now understand why Melo is so focused on Chicago. Even if Rose is unable to play, Chicago could still put a strong EC lineup on the floor. For example: Melo/Noah/Gibson/Rose/Butler/Dunleavy/5m mle/2m bae/Smith if the following trade were to occur: Melo for Boozer/Snell/1 or 2 first-round picks (works in trade machine once Boozer’s salary updated). They’ll hope to sign Augustin using bae and Mirotic using 5m mle; even if Mirotic waits ’til next year, they could still use part of 5m mle to acquire player. So even without Rose, that is still a very competitive lineup in the EC. A S&T versus outright signing makes sense for all parties here: Melo/NYK/Bulls. Only issue is that Bulls would have to manage cap to stay under apron.

    Comments are closed.