Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Knicks Morning News (2014.05.02)

  • [New York Times] West Refuses to Lose, Leads Pacers by Hawks 95-88 (Fri, 02 May 2014 07:08:45 GMT)
    Three minutes from a far-sooner-than-expected summer vacation, the Indiana Pacers turned to their rock.

  • [New York Times] Warriors Outlast Clippers 100-99, Force Game 7 (Fri, 02 May 2014 06:47:46 GMT)
    After a first-round series filled with drama on the court and off it, the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers will put the focus back on basketball in the biggest way possible.

  • [New York Times] Warriors 100, Clippers 99: Warriors Hold Off Clippers to Force Game 7 (Fri, 02 May 2014 06:11:19 GMT)
    Stephen Curry scored 24 points as Golden State avoided elimination, the latest twist in a competitive series overshadowed by the Donald Sterling scandal.

  • [New York Times] Roundup: With Regulation Win, Thunder Force Deciding Game (Fri, 02 May 2014 04:33:09 GMT)
    Behind 36 points from Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City won at Memphis on Thursday night to force a deciding game at home on Saturday.

  • [New York Times] Pacers 95, Hawks 88: Top-Seeded Pacers Avoid Elimination (Fri, 02 May 2014 03:47:42 GMT)
    After spotting the Hawks a sizable early lead, Indiana stretched the series to a seventh game at home.

  • [New York Times] Pacers Force Game 7 With 95-88 Win Over Hawks (Fri, 02 May 2014 03:17:59 GMT)
    The Indiana Pacers have changed who they are, going to a different style in hopes of surviving the opening round of the playoffs.

  • [New York Times] Thunder Force Game 7, Beat Grizzlies 104-84 (Fri, 02 May 2014 02:50:48 GMT)
    Kevin Durant scored 36 points to break out of a slump, and the Oklahoma City Thunder routed the Memphis Grizzlies 104-84 on Thursday night to force a deciding seventh game in the first-round Western Conference series.

  • [New York Times] Kidd Urges Nets to Enter ‘Attack Mode’ as They Face Elimination (Fri, 02 May 2014 02:49:20 GMT)
    With the Nets down three games to two in their series against the Toronto Raptors, Coach Jason Kidd declined to address the possibility that the team could crash out of the playoffs Friday.

  • [New York Times] Analysis: How Kevin Johnson Influenced the Donald Sterling Ruling (Fri, 02 May 2014 02:08:32 GMT)
    Kevin Johnson, the N.B.A. star turned mayor of Sacramento, made it clear to N.B.A. Commissioner Adam Silver what needed to be done to address the Donald Sterling situation.

  • [New York Times] Lakers Say There’s No Rush in Coaching Search (Fri, 02 May 2014 02:02:46 GMT)
    The Los Angeles Lakers say they’re in no rush to hire their next head coach.

  • [New York Times] Little Recourse for Sterling (Fri, 02 May 2014 01:16:15 GMT)
    Alan Rothenberg, a longtime sports lawyer who has known Donald Sterling for decades, said, “He’ll fight as hard as he can legally.”

  • [New York Daily News] For Kerr, it’s tale of two cities (Fri, 02 May 2014 02:40:52 GMT)
    Steve Kerr could be in position to take Phil Jackson’s dream job in Los Angeles, although the more plausible scenario is that Kerr, as expected, will be joining Jackson in New York.

  • [New York Post] Source: Kerr not a candidate for Lakers job (Fri, 02 May 2014 01:39:47 -0400)
    Steve Kerr, the overwhelming favorite to be the next Knicks coach, is not on the Lakers' candidate list, according to an NBA source. The Lakers believe Kerr is too far…

  • 50 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2014.05.02)

    1. Farfa

      I already ordered 30 caps of Nespresso to stay awake Saturday night (the first one begins on 11:30 PM on Rome time-zone) to watch all those game-seven matches live.

      Best first round ever. I’m just a little sad that all of this will amount to nothing once those bumptious Miami Heatles will steamroll their opposition to the NBA Finals.

    2. Farfa

      Oh and please please please let’s hope our next coach is not Byron Scott (I’ve seen this thing talked about in some NY-based newspaper, I don’t believe any of it but you never know, Phil has a long history of hiring “friends”… a great history nevertheless, but Byron Scott is not a good coach). We don’t want any retreads. We want a foundation, and there’s no one out there who already coached big and who could build something here.
      Give us the means to dream, not to tread water.

    3. Brian Cronin

      Holy shit, yes, Byron Scott…oh man, oh man, would that be bad. And I thought that that dude would be such a good coach. I was mistaken. It seems like there are certain guys who probably work best as assistant coaches, since their roles are “the guy who yells at the players.” That works when you’re the assistant coach but when you become the head coach, it doesn’t translate. Look at Brian Shaw, one of the best assistant coaches in the game, and a major reason that Frank Vogel is struggling now (since he no longer has Shaw keeping the players in line) but when he became head coach, his yelling routine just alienated his players.

    4. Farfa

      Randy Wittman on the other hand, coached his suit off for the entire series, and earned himself at least a two-year extension in the offseason.

      This is from Sean Fagan of “Truth about it”. What? How numbing the scent of victory, how ruthless the power of delusion.

    5. Brian Cronin

      Wittman was definitely better in the playoffs than he was in the regular season, but yeah, I call BS on the idea of him having an actual great series as a coach. His major moves were all obvious ones, even to someone like Woody.

      A. Play your main players more, which everyone in the world does in the playoffs.

      B. Play your main players, who all match up well with Chicago’s main players – again, you’d have to be a moron not to do this! I am not giving the guy credit for essentially just playing his regular rotation, only with increased minutes.

      They just matched up really well against Chicago. Nene and Gortat were big enough to nullify the Chicago size advantage in the middle and Chicago had no answer for Wall and Beal.

    6. Farfa

      Verily so. I think MDA did as well as he could in Los Angeles.

      Could someone else take that roster to the playoffs? Nope. So, lottery bound as they were this year, D’Antoni did an ungrateful job, basically auditioning year-long the guys he had so that the management could assess them for next year. And you have to respect a guy who leaves on his own terms, just as Tom Ziller brilliantly said at SB Nation.

      Anyway, it’s no secret that Magic is not the best one at examining coach/GM duties. He was a fantabulous player, much less so as a coach or as a commentator.

    7. DRed

      Yeah, MDA did all just about anyone could in LA. It’s really hard to win without good players.

      So, Chris Copeland for playoff MVP?

    8. DRed

      Nene and Gortat were big enough to nullify the Chicago size advantage in the middle and Chicago had no answer for Wall and Beal.

      Based on what I saw this year, Bradley Beal is probably the best player in the NBA.

    9. johnno

      Magic’s MDA tweet was pretty douche-y but only about half as douche-y as Shaq posting a picture of himself mocking a guy with a rare disease, followed by an equally douche-y quasi-apology.

    10. Brian Cronin

      Yeah, that was ridiculous. I think Magic’s was almost worse, though, if only because Magic is not a moron so he clearly knew exactly what he was saying while Shaq, well….

      But yeah, Shaq, dang, and the apology was literally #SorryCuz?!!?

    11. mokers

      Based on what I saw this year, Bradley Beal is probably the best player in the NBA.

      So you only watched Knicks games this year?

      I think MDA is stubborn, but I don’t think that anybody could blame him for the Lakers this year. I thought he did a good job based on what was given to him. I figure he will land somewhere next year. Minnesota? OKC? It’s too bad Dwight went to Houston because I think he would be a great fit with the pieces there.

    12. Brian Cronin

      But even if you think D’Antoni is a bad coach, it’s still ridiculous to publicly tweet what Magic did. If you’re just a normal Laker fan, by all means, go for it. But imagine if, say, Allan Houston had tweeted “Oh man, Mike Woodson is gone! Awesome! I’m so happy!” It’d be ridiculously screwed up, right?

    13. d-mar

      Hey D’Antoni looked like an offensive genius when the Lakers dropped 51 points on us in one quarter, especially considering he was going up against defensive genius Mike Woodson.

    14. Nick C.

      Magic’s comment was just insane. He was very sensitive when Sterling’s nonsense came out. You would think of all people he would be more attuned to people saying things that might be construed as offensive to the person involved (at a minimum). But instead he goes out and tweets away.

    15. lavor postell

      I’m of the mindset that a lot of NBA owners and people associated with the league have wanted to get rid of Sterling for awhile, but didn’t have the national media attention and smoking gun like the one that was presented to them last week. Magic is above all else a business man and while I echo his sentiments and don’t doubt his sincerity in saying Sterling has no place in the NBA I think it was definitely with an eye towards getting an ownership stake in the Clippers. The guy is not exactly a great philanthropist.

    16. DRed

      Do you even watch Melo play ?

      Says the writer dude guy who never played a single minute in the NBA nor win an NCAA championship as a freshman in college.

      Are you talking about Kobe Bryant, who was till last year, the best or second best player in the game for a decade or so? The Kobe Bryant with all those rings?

      Anthony is not as good as LeBron or Durant, but he’s still a top 10 player in the league and one of its best scorers. I’m skeptical of the advanced metrics in basketball. There are simply too many variables that it cannot account for. We do know that Carmelo has been a great scorer ever since he entered the league.

      It’s funny how you ignore that Carmelo has made the playoffs in his 1st 10 years in the league, but use this year, with his worst team ever, to act like he can’t ever make the playoffs.

      ahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    17. er

      lol. I knew you would like that one DRED. I look out for my homies.

      Dont know the reason for the article in the middle of the playoffs but still funny

    18. Frank

      I don’t have a fully formed opinion about WoW, but my general sense is that it doesn’t come close to explaining anything in the league probably explains some things well and completely misses other things (ie. pretty much like any single metric system. Plain common sense suggests that in a sport where 10 athletes are on the floor at the same time, there are going to be complex interactions between them that cannot be explained by simple box scores. But whatever, that’s not my point.

      Where he loses me in general is when he uses his own statistic to prove his own argument- ie. the whole section in which he uses wins produced of players around LBJ/KD/Melo to prove whatever point he’s trying to make. I mean is that circular reasoning or what? I’m right because of my own reasoning that proves I’m right.

      Dont know the reason for the article in the middle of the playoffs but still funny

      Anything anti-Melo probably gets huge page views. Berri is just being used as a clickbait troll.

    19. Hubert

      But although Anthony had less help in 2013-14, surprisingly the difference between his help and the help given to James and Durant remained small. In 2013-14,

      every player not named Durant on the Thunder produced 38.5 wins,
      every player not named James on the Heat produced 36.0 wins, and
      every player not named Anthony on the Knicks produced 32.0 wins.

      Again, the problem isn’t really the players surrounding Anthony.

      Guys, the rest of the Knicks were just fine this year. It was just Melo.

      And it wasn’t the coaching, either, because:

      if Anthony could have simply shot like LeBron. And if that had happened, the Knicks would have been in the playoffs, and Mike Woodson would probably still be the team’s head coach.

      Now I don’t disagree with the idea that Melo is terribly overrated and doesn’t contribute greatly to wins, but something is seriously broken with this guy’s methodology if Carmelo Anthony’s teammates this year were only marginally inferior to Durant’s and LeBron’s.

      Btw, how does this guy account for defense in his wins produced?

    20. GoNyGoNYGo

      I think the author’s bio says it all: “David Berri is a professor of economics at Southern Utah University.”

      That is the exact skill set required to analyze a basketball player (sarcasm, in case it wasn’t obvious).

      Melo was not the problem. Point to anyone in the back court. Point to the coach. Point to injuries. Don’t point at Carmelo Anthony. Puhhhhleese!

    21. DRed

      The interesting thing is that Melo, per Berri’s numbers, produced 10 wins. 10+32=42, and the Knicks only won 37. So fuck you one last time, Mike Woodson, and that’s factorial.

      Lebron’s supporting cast is pretty meh if you actually look at them. Bosh is one of the big 3 only in terms of salary, Ray Allen is older than Methuselah, D Wade is injury prone (although still terrific when healthy-sort of like a Tyson Chandler). Birdman and Chalmers can play, and after that it’s a fucking pu-pu platter. I mean, if you think of the talent curve in the NBA, most guys in the league are pretty decent basketball players. It’s not that hard to assemble a solid supporting cast. Which is why, generally, you see the teams with the best superstars playing late into the year. It doesn’t always work that way (Detroit, New Orleans), but it’s pretty hard to have an awesome player and not wind up over .500

    22. er

      DRED i think Drummond and Davis’ teammates were better.

      Jennings +Bynum > Felton + Pablo
      Holiday+ Roberts > Felton + Pablo
      Drummond>Chandler
      Gordon > Shumpert
      J. Smith>Shumpert
      Ryan Anderson > JR
      JR Smith>Stuckey (Barely)
      Chandler>Jason Smith

      Pistons bench = Knick Bench
      Pelican Bench > Knick Bench

    23. DRed

      Maybe in some alternative universe where josh smith doesn’t take 3’s he’s better than Shumpert, but last season Shumpert was far better.

    24. danvt

      Hey Dave Berri, we have missed you

      http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2014/05/carmelo-anthony-way-overrated/361528/

      I’m actually not so offended by that article but it misses the point about Carmelo’s prodigious talent. He can really do a lot on the court. Carmelo is kind of like the Pat Metheny, the jazz artist. I mean, the guy is amazing but most of the time his compositional ideas are bland and I’d rather listen to someone like Kurt Cobain or Bob Dylan. Someone with less technical ability, but with ideas that I respond to. Metheny was great with Joni Mitchell. Melo was great with Jason Kidd. He needs someone else to do some thinking. He needs a concept that isn’t “Well, since Melo can do everything, let’s let him dribble up the court, back into the post, shoot, and get the offensive rebound.” He needs to become efficient by figuring out what his game is going to be (and what it isn’t going to be).

      Overall, I was really impressed with Carmelo’s season. He didn’t bitch and wine. He played hard and I’d like to see him stay. He was about the only good thing this year for NYK. Is he worth the max? I don’t think so. Is he as good as LBJ or KD? No. Can he be a more efficient player, fit in a system and create more wins? Sure.

    25. er

      Agreed on all points. im just curious as to why Melo was picked to compare with Lebron and Kd? Why not Harden or anyone else?

    26. mokers

      I don’t think that Berri’s status as a Economics professor at Southern Utah helps or hurts the case for WP. I think that WP has added a good amount of data to the case for advanced analytics. I do think that like most statistics, you can only user WP to tell you part of the overall story. I think basing your entire case for making one player great or terrible based on one statistic is a bad way to start analysis.

    27. EB

      According to Hoops Hype salary page, 29 players make at least $14 million which is basically the max.
      Melo had the 26th most WP last season, per boxscoregeeks.com (though their values differ from Berry’s quoted numbers). Is he worth $25 million or whatever, probably not. Is he worth the standard max still? Even according to WP he still might be.

    28. EB

      Some of the names on the list of highest paid are actually kinda horrifying:
      3. Gilbert Arenas $22,346,536
      15. Rudy Gay $17,888,932
      17. Brandon Roy $17,779,458
      18. Derrick Rose $17,632,688
      26. Emeka Okafor $14,544,687
      27. Danny Granger $14,379,240

    29. DRed

      Some of the names on the list of highest paid are actually kinda horrifying:

      How could you leave off Kobe and Amare?

    30. EB

      You’re right, it was too much effort for me to list all of them and I figured those were obvious. Here’s the link for others: Salaries

    31. Brian Cronin

      McHale continues to be a moron. Calling timeout giving the refs time to review the play. He’s lucky they didn’t, as Lillard seemed to be inbounds to me.

    32. Brian Cronin

      Here we go. Either Portland hits a three and wins the series or we see another Game 7.

    33. Brian Cronin

      It’s really shocking how open Lillard was on the three. Parsons got hung up on a screen, which is fair enough, but damn, dude wasn’t even close to Lillard. Stotts, man, that dude draws up some awesome set plays.

    34. yellowboy90

      Lillard really staying true to his words in his commercial. lol. Sorry Karl

    35. yellowboy90

      Harden came to play a little too late. Howard will probably get flak but I thought he played well though.

    36. Brian Cronin

      Yeah, both teams played so well it really isn’t anything you can point to as a knock against the Rockets. They played well but the Blazers played better. I mean, come on, three overtime games and a last second one-point victory? That’s about as even as you can get between two teams. Makes sense, as they were a 4/5 matchup. The Blazers are going to be a feisty matchup for whoever comes out of the Dallas/San Antonio series. They are a really fun team and Stotts has such a pretty offense.

    37. Kahnzy

      Houston’s iso-heavy Harden-centric offense at the end was ugly. Almost reminds me of another team that does the exact same thing (actually, you can take your pick; far too many teams do this imho).

    38. BigBlueAL

      Thinking about how Blazers fans felt when Lillard hit that shot I can only think back to when Houston hit the shot against the Heat in 1999. I literally screamed out loud and ran around my house going crazy I was so freaking excited. Then I ran back into my room and started praying for the Heat not to make a crazy shot to win it with .8 secs left lol.

    39. Brian Cronin

      I was watching it in my dorm room. My roommate and I had developed a superstition that we would watch the game with the blinds closed (I think we had them closed when the Knicks had that big comeback against Miami during the regular season that kickstarted their drive to the playoffs and it just became a thing from that point on) so it was a bright May weekend afternoon and yet there we were watching it in the dark. :)

      We were obviously super pumped at that ending. I remember being so scared about Terry Porter, because he was such a smart player. I thought he might be able to pull something out in that last .8 seconds.

      But yeah, wow, that Lillard shot. Just amazing. When’s the last true buzzer beater to win a series? Stockton, perhaps?

    40. Farfa

      Yes, Stockton it is.

      Anyway, I am really, really in awe about how useless of a coach McHale is (specifically in late game situations). Again, I love the guy as a person, but the only effect his decisions had on this series was to make Daniels known to the world. Howard was great in game 6, but surely I wouldn’t recommend posting up a guy who shoots 57% from the FT when you’re up only 2 points. Draw something so that Howard ends with the ball only as a third option or (much better) at the end of a Asik-Harden pick’n’roll.

      Oh, and what was that minute in the 4th quarter when Harden has to guard Lopez on the post for two back-to-back possessions? I understand it was Stotts exploiting Houston’s zone, but come on. You have to be better than that. Sorry McHale, but I hope Morey is on a coaching hunt. If I was Morey, I would consider bringing up Nevada Smith. Ditch all of those wasted iso-possessions and let the team run every single time! (I would also consider trading Howard and Lin to get Westbrook, Perkins and Lamb, and then bench Harden everytime he keeps possession for more than 5 seconds. But that’s just how I see 2014 basketball. This is no more late ’90s b-ball)

      On the other hand, serious props to Stotts. This Portland team is overachieving and nobody seems to acknowledge that.

    41. Brian Cronin

      I dunno, I definitely think Stotts has done a great job but I think some of Portland’s issues in the past were that their stars were underachieving, especially Batum. Batum should be this good. Aldridge’s scoring is down but he’s rebounding a good deal better and playing much better defense than he has in the past. He essentially seems a lot more engaged overall. I guess that could be Stotts inspiring them more or something like that, though.

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