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Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Knicks Morning News (2014.04.09)

  • [New York Post] LeBron would be ‘surprised’ if Calipari jumped to NBA (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 04:25:04 -0400)
    MIAMI — While rumors swirled around Kentucky coach John Calipari potentially jumping to the NBA following Monday's national championship game loss to Connecticut, Calipari confidante LeBron James doesn't think his…

  • [New York Times] A Look at the NBA Playoff Picture (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 07:16:07 GMT)
    A look at where things stand in the NBA playoff picture, with eight days remaining in the regular season:

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing: Pistons Upend Hawks (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 05:22:23 GMT)
    Rodney Stuckey scored 29 points, and the Detroit Pistons ended a 10-game skid in Atlanta with a 102-95 victory over the Hawks.

  • [New York Times] Jones, Harden Lead Rockets Past Lakers 145-130 (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 05:18:58 GMT)
    Terrence Jones and James Harden scored 33 points apiece, and the Houston Rockets kept up their playoff push with their third straight victory, 145-130 over the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday night.

  • [New York Times] Nets 88, Heat 87: Nets Sweep Heat as Plumlee Blocks James’s Dunk in Final Seconds (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 04:59:09 GMT)
    Mason Plumlee’s block put an exclamation point on the Nets’ win, which gave them a 4-0 record against the Heat this season.

  • [New York Times] Thunder Beat Kings 107-92 as Durant’s Streak Ends (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 04:37:04 GMT)
    Caron Butler made all six of his 3-point attempts to finish with 23 points, and the Oklahoma City Thunder started the fourth quarter on a 16-0 run to pull away for a 107-92 victory over the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday night.

  • [New York Times] Nowitzki Leads Mavericks Over Jazz 95-83 (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 04:19:00 GMT)
    Dirk Nowitzki scored 21 points on 9-of-11 shooting, and the Dallas Mavericks beat the Utah Jazz 95-83 on Tuesday night for their fifth consecutive victory.

  • [New York Times] Nets Finish Off Sweep of Heat, Win 88-87 (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 03:55:03 GMT)
    A debated block at the buzzer. A season sweep of the NBA champions.

  • [New York Times] Wolves Cruise Past Spurs, 110-91 (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 02:34:10 GMT)
    Ricky Rubio scored 23 points and Gorgui Dieng had 12 points and 15 rebounds, leading the Minnesota Timberwolves to a 110-91 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night.

  • [New York Times] Pistons Upend Hawks (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 02:25:09 GMT)
    Rodney Stuckey scored 29 points, and the Detroit Pistons ended a 10-game skid in Atlanta with a 102-95 victory over the Hawks.

  • [New York Times] Wizards 90, Knicks 89: Knicks Fall to Washington, and Drop Behind Atlanta (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 01:46:06 GMT)
    Needing to keep pace with Atlanta in the Eastern Conference playoff race, the Knicks dropped a home-court game against Washington by a point.

  • [New York Daily News] Isola: Jax could learn from Larry’s Knicks knocks (Wed, 09 Apr 2014 04:27:17 GMT)
    I guess we can officially cross Larry Brown’s name off Phil Jackson’s list of potential coaching candidates. The Garden’s immediate reaction to Larry Brown’s harsh criticism on Monday of the Knicks’ front office will be to label the Hall of Fame coach a bitter ex-employee with an ax to grind. And it will likely enlist its media friends to carry out its dirty work. That’s how they roll at 2 Penn Plaza.

  • 50 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2014.04.09)

    1. Totes McGoats

      This has nothing to do with our Knicks or even basketball, but..R.I.P. Ultimate Warrior. Damn..dead for real this time. Dude was one of my all time faves. I think today imam run into work an shake the ropes in his honor lol

    2. d-mar

      Very bizarre non-call at the end of the Nets game, particularly because it was LeBron. If you watch the replay, Plumlee literally pulls LeBron’s hand down as he’s trying to dunk the ball. I know refs swallow the whistle at the end of games, but that seemed like an easy foul call to make.

      I also think if they meet in the playoffs it’ll be a whole different ballgame if Wade plays.

    3. Totes McGoats

      Maybe i’m late but I’m just realizing that the SCHOENE system was pretty much spot on. Wow.

    4. Farfa

      “Do they play?” Woodson asked about the prediction. “It’s a computer system. I don’t think computers run up and down the floor. You still got to play the game, guys. I don’t get caught up into that. . . . I don’t have no control over the computers. I really don’t. All I can control is our team and how we play, and that’s all I’m going to try to do.”

      Anthony also laughed off the low projection, which purportedly factored in the injury histories of players such as Amar’e Stoudemire and newcomer Andrea Bargnani.

      Lol Mike Woodson. “All I can control is our team and how we play, and that’s all I’m going to try to do”.

      Well, Woodson, maybe you should try harder, or better yet not try at all, since it seems that when you try it’s just a bunch of ISOs and baffled looks at the hardwood, while other teams rain death on us via simple pick’n'roll.

      Also, it seems that SCHOENE predicted the right outcome about the Bargnani trade, just not because of his injury nuisances (although they’ve been very funny, what with that Philly dunk attempt), but because of his general basketball suckitude. Bargs-less Knicks have been playing .500 ball, which is good compared to the .357 Bargs-featuring Bockers.

    5. Hubert

      Cock Jowles Has Predicted the Last Three Knicks Seasons

      Don’t the Knicks have to win 12 out of their next 4 games for you to have predicted this season correctly?

    6. Hubert

      I’m curious how well SCHOENE really did, and if their Knicks’ prediction was an example of a broken clock being right twice a day. Will look into this.

      Their methodology appears to be completely wrong. The main reason they predicted we would struggle, for example, was that injuries to Bargnani and Amar’e would HURT us. In fact, the opposite is true, we would have been better had neither played this year.

      Woodson’s quotes in that article are hilarious, though. In fact, a computer (and not even a smart one, just one that auto selects that lineups that produce well) would have managed the Knicks to a much better season.

    7. Brian Cronin

      It’s interesting that the Knicks are just getting a 41% chance of making it even if they go 4-0. I guess the thinking is that the Hawks are more likely than not to win 3 of their last 5? Charlotte likely won’t be giving a shit for their match-up, but I still find it hard to believe that the Hawks are more likely than not to go 3-2.

    8. Farfa

      Who knows about the Hawks. They are such a crapshoot that they could lose every game they’re left to play. Somehow they are the bizarro Knicks: well coached, great ball movement, competent PGs, a rookie center who shoots from 3 well enough and tries hard, no hype for anyone, suffered many injuries (but the most devastating one was to their franchise player, and somehow they have weathered the other ones), almost trying to lose but sneaking their way into the playoffs, efficient long-term vision, empty arena, active player with useful 3pt NBA record (Korver’s streak, against JR’s 22 3pta tour de force), got rid of every bad contract in the last two years.

    9. Hubert

      This isn’t perfect, but I projected each team’s total wins based on it’s current win projection and compared it to SCHOENE. What I’m not providing (because I couldn’t find it) is how this compares to a random set of projections.

      W SCHOENE Dif
      Miami 56.4 54.2 2.2
      Indiana 55.7 49.7 6.0
      Toronto 47.9 37.5 10.4
      Chicago 47.9 50.5 2.6
      Brooklyn 45.8 49.9 4.1
      Washington 42.6 39.7 2.9
      Charlotte 41.5 32.5 9.0
      Atlanta 36.2 44.8 8.6
      New York 34.7 37.5 2.8
      Cleveland 32.6 36.9 4.3
      Detroit 30.5 49.6 19.1
      Boston 24.5 28.0 3.5
      Orlando 23.5 23.2 0.3
      Philadelphia 18.1 21.8 3.7
      Milwaukee 14.9 32.0 17.1

      San Antonio 63.1 59.6 3.5
      Oklahoma City 59.6 52.9 6.7
      LA Clippers 57.8 55.0 2.8
      Houston 55.4 54.4 1.0
      Portland 52.6 41.0 11.6
      Golden State 51.1 42.4 8.7
      Dallas 49.9 43.8 6.1
      Phoenix 49.0 17.4 31.6
      Memphis 47.9 49.3 1.4
      Minnesota 41.5 52.0 10.5
      Denver 35.2 43.4 8.2
      New Orleans 34.1 41.2 7.1
      Sacramento 28.4 28.2 0.2
      LA Lakers 26.3 33.3 7.0
      Utah 25.3 33.3 8.0

    10. d-mar

      @10 I think Charlotte will likely have a lot to play for, they’re in the 7 spot, 1 game behind the Wiz, so obviously moving up to 6 would be huge for them.

      On the other hand, there’s a good chance that by the time we play Brooklyn next week, they’ll be stuck in the 5 spot and won’t give a shit, so you can at least put that one in the W column (hopefully).

    11. Hubert

      So, let’s just give these picks a radius (i.e. a radius of 10 means 5 wins in either direction) and see how he did on a dart board:

      Double bulls eye (2 win radius): 3 – Sacramento, Houston, Orlando

      Bulls eye (6 win radius): 5 – Miami, NY, Chicago, Washington, NY, Memphis

      In range (up to a 12 win radius): 9 – Dallas, LAC, OKC, SA, Philadelphia, Boston, Cleveland, Indiana, Brooklyn

      Wide of mark (outside a 14 win radius): 10 – Toronto, Charlotte, Atlanta, Portland, Golden State, Minnesota, Denver, New Orleans, LA Lakers, Utah

      Hit an innocent man enjoying a pint of guinness in the eye with an errant dart and now he is blind (30 win radius): 3 – Phoenix, Detroit, Milwaukee

      Looks fairly random to me. About what I would expect from 30 people using their own methodology would come up with.

    12. Brian Cronin

      @10 I think Charlotte will likely have a lot to play for, they’re in the 7 spot, 1 game behind the Wiz, so obviously moving up to 6 would be huge for them.

      By the time that game is played, though, there is a good chance that that spot won’t be in play.

    13. Hubert

      Interesting article about the Nets’ recent success:

      http://grantland.com/the-triangle/beat-the-heat-how-brooklyn-turned-its-season-around-and-how-it-could-win-the-east/

      Does anyone else find it mildly infuriating that Kidd turned the Nets season around simply by doing the thing that Woodson should have been doing all along?

      Read that article. This year’s Nets is last year’s Knicks. Pierce at the 4, one big, two PG lineup, switching constantly, matching up well with Miami, etc.

      Seriously, all Woodson ever had to do was give up his obsession with size and we’d have been ok. Not as good as last year, because Felton dropped off a cliff, but a lot better than this. Probably up there with the Nets.

    14. nicos

      I don’t know- I think you can argue that he was right to go big, he just made the mistake of having that big be Bargnani- their best stretch has been with Amar’e starting. When he finally went back to it the two point guard line-up didn’t work well at all this year and the three guard line-ups only started working when JR (and to a lesser extent Shump) actually started hitting some shots. I’m actually not the biggest fan of Melo at the four- he gets guarded by the opposing team’s best defender anyway and he’s absolutely non-existent as a rim defender. One of the reasons the Knicks’ PNR defense is so bad is that if you can pull Chandler out high, Melo is useless as a rotator from the weak side (as is Bargs and 90% of the time Amar’e).

    15. ptmilo

      Hubert,

      If you take current projected wins as in your table, you can compare the root mean squared of SCHOENE to the original Vegas O/U line. The RMS is basically just the average of all the win differentials. They are very close. Vegas is 9.3 (which is unusually high, the Suns in particular have had a material impact, it was only 6.4 in 2012-13). SCHOENE is 9.1. Lower is better, so SCHOENE is insignificantly better this year. To compare to another random predictor, the model from boxscoregeeks (a cult of berri spinoff), has done worse with a RMS of 10.4.

    16. Cock Jowles Has Predicted the Last Three Knicks Seasons

      And those projections can’t take into consideration things like trades, which unequivocally made Toronto a better team. And when Toronto wins, I don’t know, 8 additional games by trading away their worst shooter, that means those wins come from other places.

      Predictive models can’t account for certain variables. Y’all are going to have to learn to deal with it before you spit on a bunch of good models that did a far better job of predicting the Knicks’ suckitude than you did.

      Lamenting the decision to stay on the East Coast instead of flying out to Vegas for a $10k wager on the Under. Never will live that one down…

    17. Brian Cronin

      I actually considered doing a Hawks/Celtics game thread but then I thought that that would be a bit too weird.

    18. thenamestsam

      Human predictions can’t account for those variables either. The point is that while SCHOENE and other advanced stats models did a pretty good job on the Knicks they didn’t really do an especially good job overall. Judging those models to be “good” on the basis of just that one datapoint is exactly how you’re not supposed to do these things. So while you may regret not placing a wager on the Knicks I bet you’re not regretting a bunch of the other SCHOENE or WP48 based bets you presumably (if you really believe in the system) would have also placed at the same time. Since a lot of those would have been losers.

    19. Kahnzy

      Hmmmm…to watch the Celtic feed and have to listen to Heinsohn, or watch the Atlanta feed and listen to ‘Nique. Both are terrible in their own way, but Heinsohn takes homerism to a level that could be art.

    20. Brian Cronin

      Did the Hawks seriously just call a timeout less than two minutes into a 0-0 game?

    21. ptmilo

      @19 yes, well, nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition but after a while there are a enough windfalls to offset the sinkholes. The wages of wins preseason over/under predictions have lost to Vegas every year they’ve been published.

      In other news, every time Jared Sullinger runs 20 feet he goes limp and looks around for encouragement like he just finished a 10K.

    22. DRed

      Did the Hawks seriously just call a timeout less than two minutes into a 0-0 game?

      Hey, it worked.

    23. Kahnzy

      I’ve got my Kyle Korver voodoo doll. I’m spazzing the back as much as I can but it’s not working yet. I’ll keep trying.

    24. ptmilo

      If Knick fan voodoo dolls were effective, Bargnani would have a serious lawsuit in the holster.

    25. Kahnzy

      I’ll tell ya though, I’m not normally a big believer in coaching pedigree, but Budenholzer (or however he spells it) looks like a legit Pop v. 2.0. The ball movement is admirable. It’s just too bad he’s going to be wasted on a team that the city couldn’t care less about.

    26. Brian Cronin

      Budenholzer is so good that I think he’ll find himself getting opportunities elsewhere in the future.

    27. Brian Cronin

      The Hawks are comically bad at the end of quarters. Boston hits a three to go up seven entering the fourth! Oh man, oh man, oh man!

    28. maxwell_3g

      2 things about the hawks
      1) they are really bad. it is unbelievable that we are in the position that we are in
      2) their future is bright. the coach is legit. the GM is sharp. they have a young pg (schroeder) and another first (bebe) playing overseas this year. they also have horford coming back and milsap on a great salary, making him a trade chip. and they dont have Josh smith’s or Joe Johnson’s contracts

    29. maxwell_3g

      and this is what happens when you put yourself in a position where you are depending on the celtics

    30. lavor postell

      The difference between Vegas and SCHOENE though is that when Vegas sets an O/U or spread extremely high or low they are probably basing it on betting action and ultimately on which side they feel strongest about. For example Vegas setting the O/U on the Knicks and Nets at 49.5 and 50.5 respectively were probably massive wins for them. They don’t give a shit if their projection is accurate as long as they get enough stupid New Yorkers and Brooklyn fans that get pissed about not getting respect from the bookies and thinking it’s way to make easy money. Vegas sports books seem to be doing pretty well annually and the fact that they’re success is based on making money every single year on the majority of action they take they have a lot more credibility than Kevin Pelton and ESPN looking to generate traffic and buzz.

      Btw Copeland hit the game winner tonight and had 18 points on 7-8 from the field, including 4-5 from three, with 3 assists and 2 rebounds in 17 minutes. Amazing that this guy rode the bench for the majority of our playoff “run” last year and that on a night when the Pacers didn’t play their starters and need anybody in general that can score he gets 17 minutes. Seriously he’s bad on defense, but a guy that has demonstrated he can score the ball as efficiently as him deserves minutes on any team in the league, bar none. Is there any doubt Popovich or Carlisle would have him playing effective minutes in a rotation?

    31. Brian Cronin

      I think reporters sort of owe a slight duty to clean up players’ language. After all, we know that the players are constantly throwing in “uhm” and “ah” and yet that never appears in quotes, so similarly, if a player says something grammatically incorrect and it isn’t a big deal, just correct it for him. I was thinking of that when I saw this AP quote of Al Jefferson:

      ”We getting better as a team, we two games above .500,” said Al Jefferson, who had 20 points and 18 rebounds. ”But does it really matter where we’re at for seeding-wise? No, we just happy to be in the mix.”

      Really? You couldn’t just make it “we’re” for him each time? Not cool!

    32. Brian Cronin

      A good thing is that Charlotte’s victory over Washington means that they’ll definitely be trying to beat Atlanta. The bad thing is that Jason Kidd has already hinted that he might be resting guys against Atlanta on Friday. Kidd!!!! (shakes fist angrily)

    33. Brian Cronin

      Hawks going 1-3 and the Knicks going 4-0 really wouldn’t be an insane turn of events.

    34. Farfa

      Brian, I understand the depths of the pit of delusion the bottom of which we’re all together scraping… but Knicks 4-0? These Knicks with this coach, this effort from Chandler and this shoulder severely limiting Melo?

    35. Brian Cronin

      It’s a very UNLIKELY turn of events, I totally agree, but I don’t think it is a crazy turn of events. A crazy turn of events is expecting the hawks to go 0-4.

    36. d-mar

      Brian, I wish I could share your mild optimism, but we play Toronto twice and they will definitely have something to play for, namely the 3 seed and avoiding Brooklyn in the 1st round. So I just don’t see us beating them twice. And of course, there’s Melo’s shoulder.

      (But I do appreciate your diehardiness!)

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