Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, November 28, 2014

Knicks Morning News (2014.03.16)

  • [New York Daily News] Knicks roll past Bucks as Woodson says he has nothing to prove to Phil (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 03:38:26 GMT)
    Mike Woodson continues to be defiant when asked about a Knicks future that isn’t likely to include him. Phil Jackson is slated to be introduced Tuesday as the team’s new president of basketball operations, and the Zen Master is widely expected to bring in a head coach of his choosing regardless of how Woodson’s team finishes this season.    

  • [New York Daily News] Lawrence: On Melo, we don’t know Jax (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 03:25:20 GMT)
    Walt Frazier is like the rest of us. He doesn’t know the answer to the $130 million question: Does his old roommate on the road, Phil Jackson, think he can win a title in New York with Carmelo Anthony? Now if you’re asking whether Jackson can get the Knicks star to change the way he plays, that’s another matter.    

  • [New York Daily News] Bondy: Yipee for Hippie! Garden exec Phil long way from bohemian roots (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 01:16:16 GMT)
    Fifteen million dollars? Autonomy to preside over a showcase NBA franchise in New York? There was a time, a far cry from this moment, when Phil Jackson was living paycheck to paycheck, making do with little more than meal money, installing an erratic flex offense with players named Andre Gaddy and Ralph McPherson, not Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.    

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Looks to Asia for Next Growth Spurt (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 05:40:06 GMT)
    With China as the big revenue prize, the National Basketball Association is steadily stoking interest and wooing fans across the region.    

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Roundup: Late Charge By Wizards’ Gooden Dooms Nets (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 04:06:59 GMT)
    Washington erased a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to move ahead of the Nets for fifth place in the Eastern Conference.    

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Basketball: Odom Finished in Spain (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 03:45:49 GMT)
    Lamar Odom’s brief venture into European basketball has been cut short by a back injury, according to his Spanish club.    

  • [New York Times] Noah Leads Bulls to 94-87 Win Over Kings (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 03:02:52 GMT)
    Joakim Noah had 23 points and 11 rebounds, Taj Gibson scored seven of his 19 points in the fourth quarter and the Chicago Bulls held off the Sacramento Kings 94-87 Saturday night.    

  • [New York Times] Pacers Rally From 25 Down, Beat Pistons in OT (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 02:41:48 GMT)
    Paul George scored 30 points and the Indiana Pacers rallied from a 25-point second-quarter deficit to beat the Detroit Pistons 112-104 in overtime on Saturday night.    

  • [New York Times] Millsap, Teague Help Hawks Rally Past Denver 97-92 (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 02:29:56 GMT)
    Paul Millsap had 24 points and 11 rebounds, Jeff Teague added 15 points and 10 assists, and the Atlanta Hawks rallied for their third straight win with a 97-92 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Saturday night.    

  • [New York Times] 76ers Tie Team Mark With 20th Straight Loss (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 02:11:52 GMT)
    Moments after the final horn sounded, the Twitter feed @didthesixerswin posted an update.    

  • [New York Times] Wizards Rally Past Nets for 101-94 Win (Sun, 16 Mar 2014 01:50:51 GMT)
    John Wall scored 33 points, Drew Gooden got 11 of his 21 in the final quarter and the Wizards overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit for a 101-94 win over the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday night.    

  • 88 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2014.03.16)

    1. Zanzibar

      I wonder if Dolan and PJ discussed Melo’s situation before the hire and, if so, to what degree. I envision PJ thinking as follows: Melo could become a Triangle player just like MJ/Kobe and in 2015 we nab the Gasol brothers (both excellent Triangle players). Four years ago I would have been 100% behind that plan but now no way. In the playoffs of 2015-16, Melo would be a couple of months shy of 32, Marc would be 31, and Pau would be 35. Didn’t Max post some stats at one time that only the Celtics had that type of profile? A single injury that year would torpedo us and then those 3 wouldn’t be getting any younger. Phil’s 68 and doesn’t like hearing that he’s over-the-hill and that sentiment could seep into how he evaluates older players.

      And then it’s looking like we would be in a nice position if we look to trade Melo to win-now teams. Not having to amnesty Boozer would be a huge savings for Chicago. And now it appears Houston might be suitors for Melo. How could Melo not want to join Harden and Howard? Saddle up Lala, we’re headed to oil land – needless to say Lala would probably not be gushing at the idea. And if OKC flounders, wouldn’t a Westbrook/Melo deal be a possibility? Here are minimum deals:
      (1) Mirotic/2 1st round picks
      (2) Lin/Asik/Parsons (tremendous 2015 flexibility to sign free agents and S&T Lin/Asik)
      (3) Westbrook/Perkins (OKC re-signs Reggie Jackson)

      Given our leverage, we probably could extract more. For example: (1) Butler instead of those 2 1st round picks. (2) Beverley if we throw in Prigs (Harden often handles the ball so PG not critical and Houston could use mle to replace Beverley). (3) Chandler/THJ for Ibaka… I think I’d prefer any of those scenarios to an aging Melo for 20m.

    2. Z-man

      Answering my own question fro the last thread, obviously it hard to ever prefer not making the playoffs for the betterment of the team in the long run. I just expected that there are enough people here that saw this as a make or break year that would have regarded another 2nd round exit, to surely be followed by another year of Woodson and foolish personnel moves as small consolation, and a perfect setup for another 5 years of second-rate basketball. On the other hand, getting Phil in the fold significantly dampens the blow of this horrific season for me.

      I hope that Phil gives this job his all, and that he desperately wants his career to end on the highest note of all: to bring a championship back to the city where it all started for him. I hope he rolls his 13 rings on the table in front of a marquis free agent, just like Riley did, and convinces him to become the messiah that finally brings a NBA championship back to this starving city will make him a hero in the world’s greatest city for life. I hope….

    3. Zanzibar

      Does this Bargs bashing never end? Bargs played 1257 minutes this season; in 765 of those minutes, the team was +1.3/100. In those 765 minutes neither Amare nor Chandler were on the floor. And 2 of our top 3 lineups featured Bargs (+23 in 146 minutes and +31 in 126 minutes). Does that not suggest – nay, scream – that the real problem here was coaching? You could reasonably argue that we should not have made the Bargs trade but to attribute the team’s woes primarily to Bargs is incredibly shallow, unworthy of a board focused on statistics. And one more thing, remember the first Pacer game this season (no Chandler)? Just a fluke? No, Bargs or Amare at the 5 is the only way we have a chance to defeat them in a 7 game series.

    4. Z-man

      Zanzibar, I argued vehemently for a wait and see approach re: Bargnani before the season started. My cautious optimism was based on 1) him essentially replacing Cope and Novak, bringing a more well-rounded offensive game and a marginally better defensive/rebounding presence and 2) his putting up better than his career numbers because a) he would be a 3rd option on a contending team and his usage would go down and b) his development might have been limited by injuries and unfair expectations in Toronto during the last couple of years.

      I watched him very closely and looked at his stats very carefully as the year progressed, and it became very clear to me that he was every bit as bad as the naysayers predicted he would be. He has an insidious impact that goes beyond the +/- numbers. There really isn’t a role in which he can be counted on as a plus player. He’s too soft to be a 5, doesn’t shoot well enough to be a stretch 4, and too slow to be a 3.

      Regarding the +1.3 per 100, that is not only cherry-picking, it ignores that he was almost certainly on the floor with Melo, meaning with our best possible lineup given the injuries, and if anything, drove the numbers down so that games became nail-biters that we often lost. He’s just a terrible, terrible player.

      Again, I strongly advocated for a wait and see approach, and now that I’ve waited and saw, I have no doubt that trading for him was a huge mistake.

    5. Zanzibar

      How could anyone argue that Bargs could not have been productive for this team as a stretch 5 for 20-25 mpg? And yes he was with Melo for most of those 765 minutes, but that’s the whole idea!! A stretch 5 maximizes Melo’s offense especially against teams that pack the paint like Pacers and Bulls. Logic and stats both indicate that. I’ve said I believe Bargs is a below average player but he’s one of the few centers who can guard the Hibberts and Howards and take them out of the paint on offense. That’s what makes him valuable on a team featuring Melo (and JR and Felton for that matter). I only care about us outscoring the opponents, not whether Bargs is “soft”, doesn’t rebound, is a poor help defender, and so on. (btw I argued for signing Josh Harrelson and it’s mind-boggling that Hawes could have been had for 2 second-round picks)

    6. tastycakes

      The idea that a player “would be useful if only his coach knew how to maximize his skills” is a bit of a weak argument. I concede the team could be several wins better with a good coach, but the players play the game on the court.

      Bargnani’s entire career has been spent playing losing basketball. The skills he’s supposedly good at (roughly: scoring) … he’s not actually good at. 28% from 3 point land this year from your ‘stretch 4’!? Sure, he might be a better one-on-one post defender than you’d expect, and he’s also impossibly bad at help/team defense. He rebounds like a 2-guard, but he’s 7 feet tall. He’s a clumsy ball-stopper who basically never makes plays that elevate his teammates.

      On top of that, he demonstrates very little grace or passion on the court. His defining moments as a Knick include comically blatant lack of effort on defense, a shot taken without any regard for the game clock that resulted in a bad loss, and a horrific attempt at an offensive move in the lane that ended with him falling on his elbow and ending his season. Putting aside any empirical / statistical / fact-based arguments about his value, he’s a very difficult player to root for.

      Like many fans, I’ll give every single dude who comes to the Knicks a chance to win me over, and I will root for him when he is wearing the orange and blue… but Bargs is one of the worst, ever. Eddy Curry-esque. He is possibly one of the worst players in the league and is a negative whenever he is on the floor. Show him the door!

    7. thenoblefacehumper

      In those 765 minutes neither Amare nor Chandler were on the floor.

      That’s really just arbitrary cherry picking. Overall, with Bargnani on the floor we’ve scored 104.3 points/48, and with him off it we’ve scored 110.1. This is just taking into account his offense, not his morbid defense and rebounding. If the point you’re trying to make is that Bargs is not the only reason we’ve been bad this year, then yes, that’s true. If you’re trying to say he could’ve been “utilized better” or something, then no, that’s not true.

    8. lavor postell

      It’s funny because a lot of us made of fun Cock Jowles for saying time and again that Bargs was the worst player in the league, but having watched him this season that seems far less ridiculous. He is the worst player I’ve seen don a Knicks jersey since Lee Nailon.

    9. Owen

      Seriously, Bargnani, worst regular in the NBA over the last five years. He’s that bad. He should be the 11th or 12th guy on a good team, at best….

    10. EB

      Perhaps we can grant that Bargs MAY have SOME use against Howard and Hibbert, but that’s about the entirety of post-up bigs in the league. And the evidence you seem to cite is dependent on the Knicks giving up fewer points, not scoring more. The idea that Bargs is the difference between the defensive improvement is just prima facie ridiculous. Anyway there is no control for the effects that other players in those lineups might have had (e.g., Kenyon Martin may have played the “4”). Furthermore, you haven’t controlled for quality of opponent or the fact that Bargs may have just been on a “hot streak”.

    11. EB

      On the other hand coaches can make some differences for players (arguably). Mike D’antoni seems to significantly raise the advanced shooting numbers of many of his players. Also I find it hard to argue that a coach who runs Amare through the pick and roll more will better utilize him than as a spot up shooter or iso him more than a dribble or two from the basket. Or take a coach who lets JR shoot anything and everything as opposed to spot up threes, or a coach who lets Josh Smith shoot threes. But applied to Bargs it only would seem to matter if he takes and makes more 3’s but he has struggled at shooting even those over the last several years.

    12. Zanzibar

      The problem y’all are having is that you do not appreciate that both of these statements can be true: (1) Bargs is at best a below average player (2) Bargs can be a net plus to the team. Also, stretch 5s are almost non-existent in the NBA so their effect is not so obvious. Finally, a stretch 5 is more valuable to players like Melo and JR than a Dirk or KD.

      Don’t feel bad though, you’re thinking just like coach Woody. The irony is injuries showed Woody how to use Bargs but he refused to believe the stats, just like all of you. Why would it surprise anyone that a below average role player would struggle playing 35-40 mpg in a situation of always changing lineups? Another irony is that the bulk of Bargs minus may be attributed to his minutes with Chandler. How in the world could Bargs be plus without TC, who if we are to believe WoW is an all-time great, and so heavily minus when they’re together? The answer is very simple: there is no real valuable spacing from that configuration. The center guarding Chandler is still in the box area so it’s almost irrelevant. You get all of the bad of Bargnani but none of the good. And it’s not at all cherry picking to show that Bargs/Melo config is huge plus since that should have been why we acquired him in the first place. It’s not a fluke that we played Pacers to a draw in that first game and then got walloped in the second game when Woody didn’t even use that stretch lineup for a minute.

    13. BigBlueAL

      The Knicks are now 10th in offensive efficiency. Of course they are still just 25th in defensive efficiency but remember according to Woodson this team wins because of its defense!!

    14. thenoblefacehumper

      The problem y’all are having is that you do not appreciate that both of these statements can be true: (1) Bargs is at best a below average player (2) Bargs can be a net plus to the team.

      Perhaps both the statements could be true about another player, but not Bargs. Calling him “at best a below average player” is incredibly generous. He does not have the skills required to make a positive impact on a team in the NBA.

      It is cherry picking to say that Bargs isn’t a net minus when he’s playing with the best player on the team. If you stuck Bargnani on an all-star team, I’m sure any lineup he’d be in would be a net plus. Attributing that to Bargs himself makes no sense. Overall, he’s been detrimental to the Knicks both offensively and defensively while on the floor. No proper amount of “utilization” can make a legitimately useless player good.

    15. Unreason

      I hope Woodson and Mills go immediately. Nothing personal, but the quicker and more clearly that a new culture, new defensive strategy, and new set of expectations can be established the better. IMO the rest of this year is mostly an opportunity for whoever will still be around to learn and practice the things that have a chance of mattering next year or the year after that.

    16. flossy

      It is cherry picking to say that Bargs isn’t a net minus when he’s playing with the best player on the team. If you stuck Bargnani on an all-star team, I’m sure any lineup he’d be in would be a net plus. Attributing that to Bargs himself makes no sense. Overall, he’s been detrimental to the Knicks both offensively and defensively while on the floor. No proper amount of “utilization” can make a legitimately useless player good.

      Seriously. If the best you can say of Bargnani is that by one stat (+/-), he’s able to register a small positive impact, but only when playing alongside the Knicks’ absolute best player, and only in line-ups without any defensive anchor on the floor, then you’re basically conceding that he sucks. I don’t really care if Bargs and Melo with no Amar’e/Chandler in the frontcourt is +1.3 per 100 possessions, because Chander, Melo and nobody else in the frontcourt is roughly +8 per 100 possessions in 840 minutes and Tyson/Stat/Melo with no Bargs is around +9 per 100 possessions (albeit in only 200 minutes), per NBA wowy. So yeah, Bargs sucks.

    17. BigBlueAL

      Chris Herring tweet:

      Knicks ranked 19th in offense prior to Bargnani injury. Have ranked 4th since then.

    18. Brian Cronin

      Knicks ranked 19th in offense prior to Bargnani injury. Have ranked 4th since then.

      For serious.

      And really, that was my biggest complaint about the Bargs era (I at least hope this is the end of the Bargs era) was that one of the arguments for him going in was that yes, he might turn out to suck, but if he sucks, he just won’t play so it won’t be a big deal. Instead, he sucked and yet was second on the team in minutes played (third in minutes per game)!! So it is little surprise that his absence has been such a positive one for the team.

    19. Zanzibar

      Perhaps both the statements could be true about another player, but not Bargs. Calling him “at best a below average player” is incredibly generous. He does not have the skills required to make a positive impact on a team in the NBA. It is cherry picking to say that Bargs isn’t a net minus when he’s playing with the best player on the team…Overall, he’s been detrimental to the Knicks both offensively and defensively while on the floor. No proper amount of “utilization” can make a legitimately useless player good.

      Go to 82games.com and scan the top 20 lineups. It will be very obvious how Bargs should be used; they’re very consistent. Remember those plus/minus stats were over the tougher part of our schedule. The central question is do those productive lineups featuring Bargs as a stretch 5 enhance our chances of beating teams like Pacers and Bulls? The answer is yes. Bargs in that role makes melo/JR/felton more effective against those teams. You are correct in saying that “overall” he’s been a detriment but your beef is more with Woodson for playing him too many minutes and in the wrong configurations. BTW I think you achieve the same or better results with frye or hawes in that role.

    20. Zanzibar

      because Chander, Melo and nobody else in the frontcourt is roughly +8 per 100 possessions in 840 minutes and Tyson/Stat/Melo with no Bargs is around +9 per 100 possessions (albeit in only 200 minutes), per NBA wowy. So yeah, Bargs sucks.

      First of all, the TC/Melo/Amare +9/100 with no Bargs in 200 minutes is mostly against the worst teams in the league. Bargs/Melo/Shump/JR were +14.5/100 in 219 minutes against much tougher opponents. I never claimed Bargs was a better player than Chandler or lineups featuring Bargs were always our best – only that the stretch 5 configuration featuring Bargs has been productive and would enhance our chances against certain types of teams like the ones we need to beat to advance in the playoffs.

      Knicks ranked 19th in offense prior to Bargnani injury. Have ranked 4th since then.

      Such a misleading statistic. We’ve played a much easier schedule since then. Felton and JR are healthier. And Woodson is no longer playing Bargs and Chandler together plus Bargs is no longer playing 35-40 mpg. How does any of that refute what I’ve been arguing?

    21. flossy

      So basically, if you squint hard enough you can see a player who could be a net positive as a 15 mpg back-up center (when paired with Carmelo Anthony in the frontcourt)? I think we’re just expressing the notion of “he sucks” with different phrasing.

    22. thenoblefacehumper

      Go to 82games.com and scan the top 20 lineups. It will be very obvious how Bargs should be used; they’re very consistent.

      Yes, if you pair him with your team’s best player, he won’t necessarily tank you completely.

    23. Zanzibar

      So basically, if you squint hard enough you can see a player who could be a net positive as a 15 mpg back-up center (when paired with Carmelo Anthony in the frontcourt)? I think we’re just expressing the notion of “he sucks” with different phrasing.

      Yes that’s more or less it except I would say that the mpg is elastic depending on the opponent. For example, he should be playing more than 15-20 mpg against the Pacers or Bulls. Remember this team really hasn’t suffered at all over the past 2 years defensively when TC’s been out of the lineup. The gain in offense (melo/jr/felton) from spacing would likely outweigh defensive drop-off. Isn’t that why we ostensibly acquired Bargs, to make us more competitive against those teams? Finally I’m not sure you have to squint all that hard when 2 of our top 3 lineups feature Bargs in rather substantial minutes. It seems rather shallow and contradictory to me to claim that the worst player in the NBA could have those type of plus numbers. When did Felton/Shump/JR become LBJ/Wade/Kobe on an all-star team?

    24. lavor postell

      @Zanzibar

      I get what you’re saying, but the problem is that Bargnani isn’t a good offensive player and he’s been an awful shooter to replace Novak and Copeland. Copeland at the 5 was tenable because he shot the ball at a supremely efficient clip. In theory Bargs at the 5 is solid logic against Indiana because you can pull Hibbert out of the paint, but if he can’t make those shots at a high percentage then it doesn’t matter because you won’t pull Hibbert from the paint.

      It’s amazing that we desperately made a trade for Bargs and that Woodson played him so many minutes even though he refused to insert Copeland in the playoffs against Indiana last year. Just exasperating how the solution to that series was sitting on the fucking bench, but Woodson kept trotting out Kidd and JR and hoped they’d find their jump shots in time for us to pull it out.

    25. Totes McGoats

      Pure and simple? Bargnani is better at the center spot, backing Tyson up. Sure he makes a lot of money and usually would dictate more minutes…but the fault is more Woodson’s than Bargs’ bad play. In the beginning of the season, I thought a frontcourt of Tyson/Bargs/Melo would work but as I watched him play I realized his movement is worse than I thought. He has no chance when guarding NBA 4’s. Put him at the 5 and his mobility is less of an issue..plus he handles the ball fairly well for his size and can draw opposing centers out of the paint with his range out to 20′. I wouldn’t say he sucks, but he isn’t what I hoped he would be either. If Woodson really was more concerned with winning, he would have realized Bargnani is better as a 5 waaaaay before I did as he’s been coaching for ages and I’m just a fan. Woodson has done an absolutely HORRIBLE job putting his players in positions to succeed. It’s almost like he only really coached Melo. He has been the only player put in a position to succeed. THJ took advantage of his moment..that’s different. Shump never had a chance this season because Woodson was talking about possibly starting JR before the season started- while JR was hurt and suspended and Shump was supposedly entrenched at the 2. I don’t think Woodson ever had any faith in the kid..even after the way he played when he returned from injury last season. He has too much of an affinity for JR and Melo (Melo’s status is acceptable) and not enough for guys who play D and do the dirty work like Tyson, MWP, and Shump. Bad coaching and on top of that, injuries killed us. To make matters even worse..he saw no reason to give the youngins a shot early when injuries first started having a serious effect. O yes..Woodson is having a really shitty time coaching. Very few of his decisions work this season..partly because the team’s collective hoop IQ is less than it was last year when we had Sheed, Kidd, Camby and Thomas. 48% Woodson sucking, 35% players, 17% injuries

    26. Zanzibar

      @Lavor Agree 85.3%. He’s been an excellent mid-range shooter and PnPop player. But Bargs needs to shoot his career average 3FG% to be effective. The first couple of months he did but then came a huge drop-off. Curiously, he’s shot under 30% (3FG%) in December something like all but 1 or 2 seasons; the fact that it continued into January was very troubling. Who knows what would have happened had he not been injured. Even before acquiring Bargs, I think we all could have agreed at a minimum that the pick should have been heavily protected. But beyond that, it was probably too great a leap of faith to give up a draft pick and hope that his drop-off in 3FG% over the last 2 years was due to injury and toxic environment. Like I wrote, I would have been happy if we had signed Harrellson (i presumed at the time he wasn’t available) and then taken Bargs but not for a draft pick. We might then have acquired Lowry and could have test drove Hawes for a couple of 2nd rounders. The problem I have is people trying to pin most of the blame on Bargs instead of Woodson where it belongs.

    27. johnno

      Does anyone know Bargnani’s +/- after the first 15 games of the season? I could be wrong but my recollection is that, after the first 15 games, it wasn’t bad.

    28. Will the Thrill

      The problem I have is people trying to pin most of the blame on Bargs instead of Woodson where it belongs.

      Well it’s obviously not Bargs’ fault he got traded for and it’s also not his fault for playing like he has his entire career (terribly), so I too would put most of the blame on Woodson for playing him and Mills for trading for him. It’s not like Bargs just totally dropped off a cliff when he came to New York, so I don’t know what Woodson expected, and I definitely don’t know what he expected after he watched it happen in front of his eyes. Here’s one question, though. Would you agree that we would have a better record right now if Bargs was injured for the entire season?

    29. johnno

      All of you who are screaming that Woodson is an idiot because he didn’t realize that Bargnani’s best role is 16-20 minutes as a backup 5 — are you the same guys who we’re screaming before the season started that the world would come to an end if he played even a single minute as a center?

    30. JK47

      Bargs had a .510 TS% this year, and was a pitiful .278 from 3PT, and OFFENSE IS HIS STRONG SUIT. If that’s not a shitty player, I don’t know what is.

    31. Owen

      Why are we talking about +/-? Haven’t we watched this guy play?

      Use your eyes people!!!!!!

      ;-)

    32. Will the Thrill

      Bargs had a .510 TS% this year, and was a pitiful .278 from 3PT, and OFFENSE IS HIS STRONG SUIT. If that’s not a shitty player, I don’t know what is.

      And his shots this year were probably the easiest shots he’s ever gotten as a player, consisting of WIDE open 3’s and mostly open mid-range shots. Even if Bargs’ role was reduced to a 15 mpg back-up center, how would missing open 3’s help anyone? He had more/easier chances to score because he was playing in a starting role with Melo and he still was horrendous on offense all season. Limiting his minutes would limit his bad play, but not suddenly allow him to make wide open 3’s that he’s missed all year.

    33. johnno

      Owen – now you’ve got me totally confused. I thought that the eye test was for fossils like me, not the enlightened stat-heads who frequent this site.

    34. lavor postell

      The problem is that teams are content to allow him mid-range shots without really respecting it all that much. His inability to hit the three at even a league average rate even though almost every three he gets has been a clean look as the defense sags to stop the Melo drive is a killer. I have no interest finding a place for him in the rotation if he can’t shoot around 36-38% from three. If we need a spark against an Indiana or Chicago we can use him but that would have to be last gasp, completely desperate option.

    35. Will the Thrill

      Why are we talking about +/-? Haven’t we watched this guy play?

      Use your eyes people!!!!!!

      Hey, if you think that Bargnani has played terrible defense this season you’re full of shit. ;)

    36. thenoblefacehumper

      @34, I think everyone’s position except Zanzibar’s is that Bargs is a bad play at any minute allocation or role if there are other NBA players available.

    37. lavor postell

      Bargs would definitely have a role on the 06-07 Knicks. I’m sure Larry Brown would start him if we played a game in Italy.

    38. Zanzibar

      @34, I think everyone’s position except Zanzibar’s is that Bargs is a bad play at any minute allocation or role if there are other NBA players available.

      Yes that’s the sense I get. I do agree, however, that Bargs needs to shoot around 36% from 3 to be effective as stretch 5. That’s a given. But I feel everybody would be happy if Bargs never played a single minute in any role/minutes allocation even if he shot that %. That to me is very misguided. Look Miami barely got by Pacers last season in playoffs using Bosh at center. We’re lucky we didn’t get swept (if Vogel doesn’t call timeout in game 2). And people are also not giving the guy his due as an elite post defender – did everyone not witness how he shut down hibbert/lopez/howard (no double teams)? I think people are delusional if they think that somehow TC/JR/Felton/Melo are all of a sudden gonna play better against Indy’s strong 2-tiered defense. Bargs at least would change that dynamic giving some hope.

    39. Brian Cronin

      But I feel everybody would be happy if Bargs never played a single minute in any role/minutes allocation even if he shot that %

      The guy’s shooting 28% from three (and has been a poor three point shooter for some time now), so why would anyone want to play him on the hopes that he’ll suddenly dramatically increase his percentages to where he would need to be for him to be worthwhile?

    40. JK47

      Bargs’ 3-point percentages the last four years look like this:
      .278
      .309
      .296
      .345

      Why are we talking about him as a player that could shoot 36% from three? He simply can’t do it. He is shooting well under .300 over the past three seasons, and if you include his “good” season in 2010-2011 when he shot .345, that gets him all the way up to .315 over the past four years, spanning 175 games and 5500 minutes.

      HE CAN’T SHOOT THE THREE. End of story. The guy fuckin’ sucks; I can’t believe there is debate about this at this stage of the game. He is a proven turd. Let’s move on.

    41. DRed

      Who gives a shit about how Bargs plays against Indiana? He’s an awful basketball player. He’s a mediocre offensive player whose alleged elite post defense doesn’t make up for his horrible terrible team defense and lack of rebounding. Getting one of the worst players in the NBA because he’s “good against Indiana” is pants on head stupid. Steve Novak for Bargs would be a terrible trade. Novak and a first rounder for Andrea is one of the worst trades in NBA history. You’re making this whole blog look bad by defending him.

    42. Zanzibar

      @JK47 His career 3FG% is 35.5%. His attempts the last 3 years have been way down when he was in and out of the lineup with injuries. Also he’s shot 40% from the left corner (albeit on limited attempts) and for some reason we never tried putting him in that spot. I’ve acknowledged he may never attain his career average again but that is by no means a given. I believe he did shoot his career average for the first 1.5 months. Maybe he was tired and frustrated playing all those minutes in so many different lineups, never giving him a chance to settle into a familiar role? After all, everybody’s performance except Melo’s was down the first 4 months of the season. It’s not that much of a stretch that more stable sensible lineups would have improved everybody’s performance. Again moronic coaching needs to be considered in evaluating everybody’s performance.

    43. Zanzibar

      Who gives a shit about how Bargs plays against Indiana? He’s an awful basketball player. He’s a mediocre offensive player whose alleged elite post defense doesn’t make up for his horrible terrible team defense and lack of rebounding. Getting one of the worst players in the NBA because he’s “good against Indiana” is pants on head stupid. Steve Novak for Bargs would be a terrible trade. Novak and a first rounder for Andrea is one of the worst trades in NBA history. You’re making this whole blog look bad by defending him.

      It’s not just Pacers – it’s Bulls and Nets as well. You think Melo’s gonna do any better having Kirilenko guarding him and then having to face Garnett? I’ve tried to explain this to you but the object of the game is to outscore the opponents. I’m confident any statistician will tell you that those plus lineups are not some aberration or outlier. If you don’t believe me, start looking through the minutes logged by lineups for other teams. And stop with the hyperbole: “Novak and 1st round one of the worst trades in NBA history”. It’s that type of nonsense that makes this board more like TKB.

    44. DRed

      It’s not hyperbole. giving up valuable assets for one of the worst players in the NBA was a disaster of a trade. You claim he needs to shoot 36%from 3 to be an effective stretch 5? He shot 28%. It doesn’t matter how Melo plays with Kirilenko guarding him, because giving major minutes to one of the worst players in the NBA makes it pretty unlikely that we’re playing the Nets in the post season. Seriously,what is Bargs good at? Taking a few long range 2s? How does that make up for being bad at everything else?

    45. Owen

      “You’re making this whole blog look bad by defending him.”

      That got an honest to goodness chuckle from me….

    46. DRed

      All of you who are screaming that Woodson is an idiot because he didn’t realize that Bargnani’s best role is 16-20 minutes as a backup 5

      his best role is sitting on the bench. Cole is a much better player than Bargs. That’s what Woody is an idiot for not recognizing. The world didn’t end because he played a ton of minutes at center, but the Knicks sure did lose a lot of basketball games

    47. Zanzibar

      It’s not hyperbole. giving up valuable assets for one of the worst players in the NBA was a disaster of a trade

      Calling it one of the worst trades in NBA history is hyperbole. And Novak is so valuable he’s not playing in Toronto? Novak will get you wins in the regular season but is a huge liability in playoffs.

      Seriously,what is Bargs good at?

      > elite post defender (sportsvu)
      > one of the highest mid-range shooting %s in league
      > 5th lowest TO% among centers
      > career 83% FT shooter
      > career 35.5% 3FG%

      OK so on that last one I’ve always acknowledged that he’s got to shoot his career average to make a difference for this team. We agree on that. But when everybody’s % is down (except melo), don’t you have to at least consider that maybe all of those lineups impeded the offensive flow and the ability of players to find a certain equilibrium? Is it such a stretch that maybe if Woodson had been smarter (the data was there rather early) and had settled on more stable and sensible lineups the performance of all the players might have been better?

      because giving major minutes to one of the worst players in the NBA makes it pretty unlikely that we’re playing the Nets in the post season.

      I agree his minutes should have been reduced to about 20mpg when he was playing 35mpg. Our difference is that you believe Bargs could never be a plus for this team but the data does not support you in that belief.

    48. lavor postell

      Man Anthony Davis is ridiculous. 40 points on 21 shots, 15 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks and a steal and he just turned 21. I’m excited to witness the Anthony Davis era in all of its glory.

      Yeah the Bargnani trade is one of the worst personnel moves the Knicks made in the pantheon with the Ewing trade, the Houston extension, the Stoudemire contract, the Eddy Curry trade, the Marbury trade and the Shandon Anderson-Howard Eisley trade.

    49. Owen

      “I’m excited to witness the Anthony Davis era in all of its glory.”

      Me too. Not sure where to set the line on how many MVPs he wins….

    50. Zanzibar

      Yeah the Bargnani trade is one of the worst personnel moves the Knicks made in the pantheon with the Ewing trade, the Houston extension, the Stoudemire contract, the Eddy Curry trade, the Marbury trade and the Shandon Anderson-Howard Eisley trade.

      I hope you’re being sarcastic. Amare’s contract has crippled us for 4 out of the 5 years. And Curry…We’re so far over the cap that the Bargs trade hasn’t hampered us in any way (in terms of signing players/mle, etc.). And don’t forget, it wiped Novak’s contract off the books for 2015. Camby’s toast, Novak’s 3fg% has plummeted and doesn’t play for Raptors. Once again, those pesky stats suggest Bargs used in the proper way could be a net plus for this team and help us in the playoffs. We gave up a 20-30 pick. Yeah, definitely one of the worst trades in history of the NBA.

    51. flossy

      But seriously, Andrea Bargnani is goddamn terrible. Why are we having an argument about whether or not we’d all hate him if he turned back the clock five years to the last time he was a 3 point shooter who commanded any respect? He couldn’t, so it doesn’t matter. To have any offensive value, he has to play the 5, whereupon he becomes the worst rebounder and defensive anchor in the middle that any team could possibly ask for. It just cracks me up to read things like

      Novak will get you wins in the regular season but is a huge liability in playoffs.

      … because Andrea Bargnani gets you NOTHING.

    52. Zanzibar

      To have any offensive value, he has to play the 5, whereupon he becomes the worst rebounder and defensive anchor in the middle that any team could possibly ask for.

      Then how in the world did those lineups go plus for so many minutes? Again, all together, the object of the game is to outscore the opponents. Is that such an advanced concept for people to comprehend? Team rebounding… sheesh I’m not even gonna bother.

    53. lavor postell

      Dude we gave up a 2016 first round pick for Bargs and 2 second rounders even though no other team would have given up a first round pick for him. At least STAT gave us a year’s worth of elite production which is more than Bargnani has ever produced.

      Owen – I put the over/under at 4.5. I don’t think I’ve seen a 21 year old as good as he is right now. Best thing about Davis is his game would fir perfectly next to virtually any other player in the league. I have no idea what his peak could be, but imagining what he could be in 3 years is legitimately scary.

    54. Alecto

      ITT: Proof that +/- is misleading and the lesson that if Bargnani suddenly transformed into a good player he’d be a good player. Again, the dead horse: Bargnani does not deserve minutes, for any reason–his team defense is horrific and his post-defense this season is small sample-size theater. He’s no longer a half-decent 3 point shooter and is only close to efficient from the mid-range. Historically low rebound rate for a center at his career usage etc etc etc etc. He is awful–the fact that you have to play the counterfactual game in order to make his case is evidence that he’s not a good player in almost (99%) any situation. The trade was awful. Can we talk about someone who is actually an interesting stats case please?

      Over/Under Davis mvps at 3.5 and I take the under at 3.

    55. Owen

      I watch Anthony Davis and ask myself how we can get him in a Knicks uniform.

      3.5 is a good line, I think he will probably deserve 4-5 but only end up winning 2.

      How good would he look in orange and white….

    56. flossy

      Then how in the world did those lineups go plus for so many minutes?

      Because virtually any center can be part of plus line-ups playing next to Melo at the 4 and three guards? As has been already shown, Tyson and Melo at the 4/5 is +9 per 100 in 800-something minutes. K-Mart and Melo at the 4/5 are plus +6 per 100 in in 450 minutes. I would be willing to wager big money that Cole Aldrich, if given actual minutes, would pair better at the 5 next to Melo than Bargnani’s pedestrian +1.3 per 100. And again, that number is his +/- in his *only* viable role. The only big man worse off playing minutes at center for the Knicks than Bargs is Amar’e, who has been just awful this season save for the past two weeks. So yeah, we basically took our Amar’e problem and compounded it at the cost of a useful rotation player and a future first round draft pick. Terrible player, terrible trade, period.

    57. Zanzibar

      his post-defense this season is small sample-size theater

      He’s fared well on sportsvu since it’s been used. And why don’t people believe their own eyes on this but trust their eyes on other things?

      Because virtually any center can be part of plus line-ups playing next to Melo at the 4 and three guards?

      Really, you believe spacing has nothing to do with it? You don’t think Melo/JR/Felton benefit from that? You believe a lineup of Aldrich/Melo/Shump/JR would be +14.5/100? You believe that lineup would just as effective against the Pacers?

    58. flossy

      Really, you believe spacing has nothing to do with it?

      I… I thought we were talking about Andrea Bargnani? Or are we still doing that thing were we say what we’d think of him if he were shooting ten percentage points better from 3?

    59. Zanzibar

      I… I thought we were talking about Andrea Bargnani? Or are we still doing that thing were we say what we’d think of him if he were shooting ten percentage points better from 3?

      So are you agreeing with me that if Bargs shoots his career average 3FG% he is a net plus? Maybe you would agree, but I’m quite sure DRed/JK47/Owen would not.

    60. Owen

      Honestly, I don’t think there is anything Bargnani could shoot that would make up for how atrocious he is defensively at the center position or how poorly he rebounds.

      A fair question is this. Who is the worst defender in recent memory? Andrea “gif-a-game” Bargnani. Eddy Curry, or Amare?

    61. flossy

      So are you agreeing with me that if Bargs shoots his career average 3FG% he is a net plus?

      I am refusing to even entertain that hypothetical, because he’s not even coming close.

    62. Brian Cronin

      Again, why would you play a guy 20 minutes a game in the hopes that he’ll raise his three-point shooting the 8 percentage points that he’d need to do to be a worthwhile player when he last reached that acceptable level five years ago and was last even remotely good from three four years ago?

      Terrible overall defender, legendarily bad rebounder, but if he happens to meet a 3-point percentage that he hasn’t hit in five years then he is at least a worthwhile stretch shooter?

      What coach gives that guy even 5 minutes a game?

      Instead, the Knicks give up a first round draft pick and two second round draft picks (three picks! Three picks!) for the right to pay him $11 million.

      Spencer Hawes, a clearly better player (which is saying something because he is not that good), was just acquired for two second round draft picks! And the Knicks gave up that plus a first rounder for Bargs!

    63. Zanzibar

      Honestly, I don’t think there is anything Bargnani could shoot that would make up for how atrocious he is defensively at the center position or how poorly he rebounds. A fair question is this. Who is the worst defender in recent memory? Andrea “gif-a-game” Bargnani. Eddy Curry, or Amare?

      Herring Tweet:To those asking, theres been no real change in NYKs defense since Bargnani got hurt. NYK was 27th in D prior to Bargnani injury; 26th since.

      Herring Tweet: I get that NYK’s offensive regression isn’t on Bargnani alone. But the team’s drop in efficiency wasn’t hard to predict after that trade.

      He’s probably right about that in the sense that Novak/Copeland shot lights out last year. In the regular season, defenses don’t game plan for individual players like in the playoffs. The real issue is how our offense would fare in the playoffs. Re bargs: Hibbert/Garnett/Noah either guard Bargs and leave paint open or give him an open 3. Very simple.

      Herring Tweet: It does speak volumes that NYK ranked 3rd in offense last yr, & then, after Bargnani’s injury, have managed to rank 4th in offense this yr.

      But what does it really say? That Woodson stopped playing that terrible Chandler/Bargs lineup and went back to Melo at the 4, playing lineups which were so effective last season (plus a much easier schedule). Bargs at the 5 and Melo at the 4 were productive. That’s more a coaching issue than a Bargs problem.

    64. Owen

      What are we arguing about again?

      Andrea Bargnani, potentially an above replacement guy off the end of the pitch? Maybe. Barely maybe. Anything more than that and you have a very bad team.

      His defense is really really bad. The Raptors spent 7 years trying to hide him. He makes the Byzantines at Manzikert look like the Spartans at Thermopylae.

      He is really really bad. And no amount of thin-slicing of +/- data will change my mind. He is so bad that I am actually really enjoying this discussion. It’s taking me back to the Eddy Curry days….

    65. thenoblefacehumper

      What I really want to know is how the negotiations leading to the trade played out.

      Masai: “So we have this player, and everyone knows if this trade doesn’t happen we’re gonna amnesty him. He’s played 66 games the last two years, and didn’t play well in them. He’s owed about $12 million dollars this year and next. What will you give us for him”

      How the hell is the response not something like “a 2nd round draft pick top 59 protected, and that offer comes off the table in 2 minutes”.

    66. lavor postell

      Last time I checked our best stretch of basketball this season has been with Melo at the 3 flanked by STAT and Chandler. Our defense sucks not because of Bargnani, but because of Woodson and his switch everything under the sun scheme. That being said Bargs is an awful defender who was terrible in such a scheme any time he was forced to switch out onto a perimeter player, which was fairly often.

      Copeland was not a one trick pony like Novak that could be neutralized by simply “staying at home” on him. Not putting a 2nd year option on Copeland’s contract was one of Grunwald’s biggest mistakes because of how valuable he ended up being as the 5 in lineups with Melo as well playing as a “Melo-lite” in lineups without him. Novak also did actually contribute to a 54 win team. Bargnani on the other hand contributes to a 27-40 team and plays with zero emotion or fire (sans that one time against Garnett) and is generally an unlikeable figure. Novak by all accounts was an awesome guy to have on the team and genuinely seemed to care about the team as witnessed by his immense towel waving on the bench and bromance with JR.

    67. JK47

      So are you agreeing with me that if Bargs shoots his career average 3FG% he is a net plus? Maybe you would agree, but I’m quite sure DRed/JK47/Owen would not.

      If my aunt had a nutsack she would make an awesome uncle. In the real world though, she’s my aunt.

    68. lavor postell

      His defense is really really bad. The Raptors spent 7 years trying to hide him. He makes the Byzantines at Manzikert look like the Spartans at Thermopylae.

      This is great

    69. Owen

      I don’t know if I would consider him unlikeable, off the court. I think I might give him solid consideration in my starting lineup of Knicks I would want to have a drink with. As a mascot for a terrible season, he is kind of an all-star. I pity fans in Philly who have to watch run of the mill awfuls like Jarvis Varnado and Arnett Moultrie. Il Mago at least makes being bad entertaining and has first pick in the draft pedigree. His awfulness is a topic that’s just so easy to warm to.

      And without him, we would never have had this post, which I consider a treasure….

      http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2014/2/26/5450808/the-best-translated-portions-of-andrea-bargnanis-recently-discovered

    70. Zanzibar

      @JK47 and flossy: Man up like Owen and answer the question :) If you answer “yes”, we can all agree and end the discussion. The irony here is that those Bargs plus figures would have been even higher if he were knocking down 3s at his career average.

      Copeland was not a one trick pony like Novak that could be neutralized by simply “staying at home” on him. Not putting a 2nd year option on Copeland’s contract was one of Grunwald’s biggest mistakes because of how valuable he ended up being as the 5 in lineups with Melo as well playing as a “Melo-lite” in lineups without him.

      Defenders didn’t even need to ‘stay at home’ against Novak just closeout on him. He was unable to attack closeouts. GG probably tried to include team option but Cope refused (what is downside to Knicks?). Many players refuse the team option because it keeps them from pursuing options at the end of the season while under contract and many could make more money than vet min in China or Europe. And Cope was not exactly a good post or help defender or rebounder but ended up being valuable in lineups at the 5. Doesn’t that just emphasize that spacing does matter? Cope only enters the discussion in comparing this team to last season’s team. I know you realize this but it’s important to note that Cope situation was independent of the Bargs trade. Maybe Novak + Cope > Bargs in playoffs but that’s got nothing really to do with Bargs trade.

      Last time I checked our best stretch of basketball this season has been with Melo at the 3 flanked by STAT and Chandler.

      Probably true but that’s been against the dregs of the league. Who knows how it will fare against better teams. Heck a lineup with Amare at the 5 and Melo at the 4 is also worth trying. The problem with Amare’s been committing major minutes to the guy only to have him sidelined with injury. But hey, we should go for it since we’re toast without him.

    71. JK47

      @JK47 and flossy: Man up like Owen and answer the question :) If you answer “yes”, we can all agree and end the discussion.

      Sure, YES! If Bargnani had done the thing he miserably failed to do, and hasn’t done in many years now, he probably could have been a sort of okay bench option.

      Instead, he sucked, just like I knew he would.

    72. DRed

      The irony here is that those Bargs plus figures would have been even higher if he were knocking down 3s at his career average.

      Every player in the league would have higher plus figures if they shot better. It’s not exactly rain on your wedding day.

    73. Zanzibar

      Zanizibar, I will admit, there are worse ideas than trading a first rounder and multiple second rounders and two contracts for the right to pay Andrea 12 million per for the next two years.

      The money’s irrelevant to this discussion.

      Sure, YES! If Bargnani had done the thing he miserably failed to do, and hasn’t done in many years now, he probably could have been a sort of okay bench option.

      PROGRESS! I’ve acknowledged that it might have been too risky to give up a draft pick in the hope that his drop-off in 3FG% was due to injury and toxic environment. I’m on record this summer as saying we should have signed Harrellson/Tyler and maybe even Aldrich over KMart because of KMart’s frail health. Had we done so, we should have still sought to acquire Bargs but not given up the draft pick, even heavily protected.

      I believe Bargs did shoot about 36% for the first 1.5 months and then his 3FG% shooting fell off a cliff the second 1.5 months. Maybe that was regression to his new mean. Or maybe, like so many of our other players, too many different lineups (and minutes in Bargs case) took its toll preventing players from developing any kind of familiarity and flow which was reflected in their shooting %s. The data regarding bargs was there fairly early; I would have played him in only 2 types of lineups and benched him if his 3FG% did not improve.

    74. BigBlueAL

      What the hell prompted all this Bargs talk tonight anyway?? The guy sucks, the trade was an absolutely awful one and to add insult to injury the offense has reached the level it played at last season once Bargs got hurt which is really all there is to be said.

      I always thought the people who said the trade for Bargs would make such a negative impact on the team were way overestimating how bad he is but they were 100% spot on. He was traded for his offensive value yet the offense was bad with him and has been almost as excellent as it was last season w/o him. Case closed.

    75. Zanzibar

      @85 We end this thread where we started, very shallow insight. Bargs is terrible on defense yet our defense did not improve once Bargs was injured. Care to explain that since Owen dodged it completely? Heck our schedule’s been much easier since then as well. And the offense was bad with him? Care to explain how 2 of our 3 best and most frequently used lineups were huge pluses with Bargs? Our offense was terrible when Bargs was paired with Chandler so yeah, when you stop playing those lineups, the offense improves. But again, the offense has been very good with Bargs in large minutes in other roles. Hey but why take a closer look at statistics…oh wait, because it’s in this board’s header maybe?

    76. JK47

      The Knicks’ defense didn’t get worse when Bargs got hurt because the Knicks’ defense is such a spectacular clusterfuck of awful that it really doesn’t matter much who is on the floor. On most teams Bargs would be a major liability, but on this team he’s just another cog in the wheezing, broken down machine that is Mike Woodson’s defensive scheme. On this team he’s just another clueless, non-athletic, low basketball-IQ doofus with no idea how to play in space, executing a strategy that is predestined to fail. We have plenty of those guys, so the defense didn’t miss a beat when he got hurt, they just kept right on sucking.

    77. KnickfaninNJ

      I just saw this thread. I don’t think Bargs has played well, but I agree with Zanzibar, he’s not the cause of the teams horribleness. Everyone was bad, with the possible exception of Melo, and the worst part was our guard play, as has been pointed out many times in this blog. Woodson’s coaching and has also been to blame. So is everyone except Zanzibar really saying that if we hadn’t played Bargs during the harder stretch of our season so far, that Woodson’s coaching would have been miraculously better and JR and Felton would have been good, despite one recovering from an injury and the other going through a difficult divorce?

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