Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Knicks Morning News (2013.12.13)

  • [New York Daily News] Dolan blocks Knicks deal for Raptors’ Lowry (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 06:51:36 GMT)
    Within the span of 15 hours, the Knicks had reached a decision to acquire Toronto Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry before the trade was vetoed — at least for now — by Garden chairman James Dolan, the Daily News has learned.    

  • [New York Daily News] Knicks Insider: Woodson & Co. go to Boston (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 06:20:04 GMT)
    Doc Rivers got a standing ovation and video tribute on his return to Boston on Wednesday night. For Mike Woodson, the Celtics might roll out the red carpet. Boston defeated the Knicks by 41 points last Sunday at Madison Square Garden for the NBA’s most lopsided result of the season, which placed a target on Woodson’s back.    

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Opening Tip: Dissecting a deal for Lowry (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 06:00:55 EDT)
    Publicly, Mike Woodson says he doesn’t see the Knicks making a trade anytime soon. “We’ve got to coach the guys we have in uniform,” he said Thursday on the ESPN New York 98.7 FM’s “The Stephen A. Smith Show.” “… Nobody’s going to help the Knicks out to make a big blockbuster trade.”But privately, the Knicks seem to be working the phones in search of a deal. Sources told ESPN.com’s Marc Stein that the Knicks and Raptors are talking about a trade to send point guard Kyle Lowry to New York.

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] J.R. may be hobbled all season (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 00:16:37 EDT)
    J.R. Smith continues to play with discomfort in his surgically-repaired left knee — and he may do so for the rest of the season. Knicks coach Mike Woodson said Thursday in an interview on ESPN New York 98.7 FM’s “The Stephen A. Smith and Ryan Ruocco Show” that Smith’s knee may be at less than 100 percent health for the remainder of the season. Smith had surgery on his left knee a week after signing a three-year, $18 million contract with the Knicks in July.

  • [New York Post] Woody: Ailing J.R. may not be 100% this year (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 05:51:43 -0500)
    BOSTON — J.R. Smith's mysteriously wretched season continued against the Bulls Wednesday night and Knicks coach Mike Woodson acknowledged the reigning NBA Sixth Man award winner may never get back…

  • [New York Times] Aldridge Leads Trail Blazers Past Rockets, 111-104 (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 07:46:52 GMT)
    LaMarcus Aldridge’s big night against the Houston Rockets wasn’t about the stats, the All-Star votes or the fans chanting “MVP! MVP!”    

  • [New York Times] Nets 102, Clippers 93: Nets Win Their Third in a Row Despite an Injury to Lopez (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 05:30:48 GMT)
    A resurgent Deron Williams helped to propel the Nets to a win over the Clippers, even as Brook Lopez left the game in the third quarter with an ankle sprain.    

  • [New York Times] Pierce, Garnett Help Nets Beat Rivers’ Clippers (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 05:13:47 GMT)
    Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett share a championship with Doc Rivers and a bond that didn’t break when they ended up on opposite coasts.    

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Pro basketball: Lakers’ Blake Sidelined With Injured Elbow (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 04:26:06 GMT)
    Los Angeles Lakers guard Steve Blake will be out at least six weeks with a torn ligament in his right elbow.    

  • [New York Times] Felton Expected to Miss 2 to 3 Weeks as Problems Mount for Knicks (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 01:55:45 GMT)
    With Raymond Felton out with a strained left hamstring, the Knicks are reportedly talking to the Toronto Raptors about a deal for point guard Kyle Lowry.    

  • [New York Times] Roundup of NBA Games (Fri, 13 Dec 2013 00:37:35 GMT)
    The Los Angeles Lakers announced that point guard Steve Blake will miss at least six weeks with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. The injury was diagnosed after an MRI by team physician Steve Lombardo and Dr. Neal S. ElAttrache of the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic in Los Angeles.    

  • 63 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2013.12.13)

    1. Brian Cronin

      They’ve got to show some pride tonight in Boston, right? Right? I just can’t believe that they have so little heart that they wouldn’t give 110% tonight in Boston. Or maybe I just refuse to believe it.

    2. johnno

      If the Knicks are going to give up Shumpert, Hardaway or a 1st round pick, is Lowry on an expiring contract really the best player that they can get in return? If they are willing to give that up, shouldn’t they be shopping around?

    3. hoolahoop

      The fact that the knicks were considering the trade for Lowry, as reported, shows how dysfunctional this organization is.
      If the knicks ownership were intentionally trying to destroy any prospects of having a championship team, they couldn’t do a better job, without seeming obvious enough to initiate a league investigation.

    4. Totes McGoats

      Ok so here are the pros and cons to a Lowry trade in my upside down world:
      PROS:
      1. Lowry’s a better defender and if we can make this trade and keep Shump & MWP it makes for an interesting defensive dynamic to balance out having Melo, Bargnani, STAT, and JR.
      2. He’s younger than Felton.
      3. He’s a better penetrator which can make for a nice drive and kick game to go along with the p&r.
      CONS:
      1. Toronto is asking for too much and we are too desperate to improve.
      2. He costs more now and in the future. If he walks we are left with just Prigioni at the 1. If he stays he probably won’t get a smaller deal.
      3. He’s not an exact lateral move because of the season Felton’s having. But in terms of overall talent and game he pretty much is a lateral move.

      I think that in the short term u definitely make this move. Unfortunately the team has too much “beyond this season risk” to pin hopes on Lowry being such a boon. But I am in favor of adding him on one condition. That if they must have a 1st rounder (preferably in ’19) then they can’t have TH2 or Shump. A modest contract in adding Felton won’t kill their rebuild. Not even close. And if they insist on our ’18 first..then Mills should return volley and say “well then take JR and give us Novak and a ’14 second rounder”. We are in no way that desperate to make a damn near lateral move that we hafta buckle to outlandish demands. This is Kyle Lowry we’re talking about!! He’s a nice piece to add to the puzzle but not a game changer. So therefore Mills SHOULD call Ujiri’s bluff and be patient on his trade. He should also push Chris Smith his way too

    5. flossy

      Leave it to James Dolan to say no to a good trade out of sheer spite and concern for his own self image. WTF if wrong with this man?

      Just to review, two summers ago we sent a great young PG packing for Houston instead of taking the once-in-a-lifetime chance to resign a stud player who emerged out of nowhere as a force for the Knicks. Instead, we gave up assets in order to award a longer-than-necessary contract to a below-average veteran retread whose deal has predictably become an albatross in only 1.25 seasons.

      Now, we have the opportunity to get a much-needed upgrade at PG, but Dolan won’t do it, because he is too embarrassed to do another deal with a GM who convinced him to fork over three draft picks in a wholly unnecessary trade for Bargnani, one of the lousiest big men in the NBA and a player who would have almost certainly been amnestied if the Knicks hadn’t tripped over themselves in to overpay for him.

    6. flossy

      If the Knicks are going to give up Shumpert, Hardaway or a 1st round pick, is Lowry on an expiring contract really the best player that they can get in return? If they are willing to give that up, shouldn’t they be shopping around?

      Lowry is a damn good PG, and his bird rights would come along with him. I’d rather have Lowry locked up on a reasonable extension that keep Mayor McCheese at the point for another couple years in hopes that Rondo actually wants to come here (which, LOL).

    7. hoolahoop

      Giving up Shump, TH2 or any picks would be a mistake.
      And don’t forget that any player that comes here will not play as well for this toxic organization.

    8. Hubert

      I have no problem whatsoever giving up Tim Hardaway, Jr. None.

      I’m surprised by the groundswell here to prefer him over Shumpert. He’s in poor form but he is still a two-way player and we only have two of them (him and Chandler). He has a unique skill set for this team and we should keep him. He’ll do fine once we get a real coach.

      I feel like the Knicks would rather give up Shumpert because they’re idiots and I feel like Toronto would rather take the pick because they’re smart. So I don’t see it being Hardaway.

      But if we could manage to turn two months of good shooting from the 24th pick in the draft into Kyle Lowry, well that would actually be the best thing we’ve done in a long time. Felton, MWP, TH Jr is a good trade. Shumpert or the draft pick instead of TH Jr is not.

    9. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Welp, this is the apocalypse manifest. Flossy and I agree.

      But what’s with the hagiography of Amare? HE PUNCHED A FUCKING WALL AND MISSED A PLAYOFF GAME. HE BEING THE HIGHEST PAID PLAYER ON THE TEAM.

    10. d-mar

      Did we really have any shot of landing Aldridge last offseason? Because he is having some year, last night 31 Pts, 25 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 steals in a win over Houston. Wow.

    11. lavor postell

      If we can swing a Felton, MWP and a lottery protected first round pick in 2018 for Lowry I would be fine with that move. Lowry would immediately solidify our perimeter defense to the point where would probably not be making the Jeff Teagues of the world look like the second coming of Isiah Thomas (playing career). Additionally he is a solid spot up three point shooter and will be able to initiate offense in the pick and roll game on his own, alleviating Melo’s responsibilities which so far this season has been please score 30, get at least 5 assists and grab 10+ rebounds as an undersized 4.

      Is Lowry going to be the make or break between us and a championship? Probably not and if Woodson continues to force feed plays for Bargnani at the cost of Melo-STAT pNr’s we are still doomed. However if Tyson comes back healthy, STAT can keep up this production for 20-25 minutes a night off the bench and we can improve our three point shooting this team will make the playoffs and be a tough out. Lowry, Shumpert and Chandler could elevate this defense to another level.

      Also a side note on Shump. I love his potential and I definitely think Woodson’s minute meddling and constant carping have had a huge affect on his confidence. That being said his defense has been absolutely atrocious at times this year. He struggles massively any time he has to defend the ball handler in a pick and roll and his off the ball defense is comical. The Indiana game was a perfect example in that when George isolated on Shumpert, he was able to keep PG relatively quiet, but down the stretch when they were running high pNr’s with him Shump consistently would run into the screener or get caught cheating under and give George way too much space to rise and fire. I love Shump and I hope he can find his game, because we need him now more than ever.

    12. DRed

      HE PUNCHED A FUCKING WALL AND MISSED A PLAYOFF GAME. HE BEING THE HIGHEST PAID PLAYER ON THE TEAM

      Technically, I think he punched a fire extinguisher. In a playoff series we weren’t winning anyhow and in which he came back and played in. Yeah, it was dumb and irresponsible, but it’s not like it cost us the title. Setting aside the fact that we never should have signed Amare in the first place, he’s worked his ass off to get back after surgery after surgery. He’s on guaranteed money. He could get Shawn Kemp fat and still get paid. And when he is healthy he still seems to be able to score at an elite efficiency, which is useful. So I root for the guy.

    13. Hubert

      But what’s with the hagiography of Amare? HE PUNCHED A FUCKING WALL AND MISSED A PLAYOFF GAME. HE BEING THE HIGHEST PAID PLAYER ON THE TEAM.

      So what? It was a terrible accident. These things happen. He’s not the first human being to hit something out of frustration. It’s not like he went Kevin Brown on the wall, he just accidentally hit a glass casing.

    14. Zanzibar

      Y’all are so naive. The whole”Dolan steps in at last minute to nix trade” baloney was just a PR move to burnish his pathetic image. Nobody in his right mind would give up a 1st round pick and Shump or Hardaway for a guy we’re not even sure we could re-sign or would even want to re-sign. Give up Felton/MWP/1st rounder for the guy but that’s it. Toronto receives a 1st round pick, saves $3m this season, and has 2 tradeable contracts. Heck Felton is even a value if they keep him so long as he doesn’t go all Portland on them. If nothing else, it’s important to show the rest of the league we’re willing to walk away from deals.

    15. The Ghost of Ted Nelson

      If we can swing a Felton, MWP and a lottery protected first round pick in 2018 for Lowry I would be fine with that move

      The problem with lottery protection is that eventually the pick needs to be paid. Protecting it just punts it to a future draft. The Knicks didn’t have a 2010 draft pick because of the Stephon Marbury trade of 2003. And it was still a lottery pick. It had just run through its full course of protections. And the Knicks, having bare cupboards by 2010, really could have used that pick.

      I doubt any of us will still be around here when the Lowry trade is officially completed and paid for, but the next generation of Knickerbloggers will probably reserve a space for it on their “Most Dolanish Moves” list. (Probably in the spot right behind whoever the Bargnani pick turns out to be…)

    16. The Ghost of Ted Nelson

      ”Dolan steps in at last minute”

      Call me crazy, but I don’t ever want to read this, even if it turns out that he ultimately made the right move. The only way that this team has any chance of success in my lifetime is for Dolan to hire people who are smarter than him and to let them do their job. He needs to be fully divorced from the day-to-day dealings of the team. Focus on his burgeoning music career and let the NBA people run the NBA team.

    17. Nick C.

      Call me crazy, but I don’t ever want to read this, even if it turns out that he ultimately made the right move. The only way that this team has any chance of success in my lifetime is for Dolan to hire people who are smarter than him and to let them do their job. He needs to be fully divorced from the day-to-day dealings of the team. Focus on his burgeoning music career and let the NBA people run the NBA team.

      Does the maintenance staff count?

    18. EB

      1) Felton is horrid. Lowry has a career ws/48 twice Felton’s and for those WP fans well Felton looks even worse.

      2) Shump is not a 2 way player. I don’t know why people keep saying this. In three seasons, Shump has never shot a decent percentage. I question whether he plays decent defense either, he racks up steals but gambles too much. Also he has bad knees. I love him to death but, he’s way overvalued.

      3) Hardaway has shot the lights out of the ball. .600 TS% on 20% usg. He can’t do anything else, but efg% counts for a lot. A rotation of Timmay, Lowry, Chandler, Melo, Prigs, STAT, Matin, and a time controlled JR and Bargs. doesn’t seem so bad to me.

    19. Hubert

      The Knicks didn’t have a 2010 draft pick because of the Stephon Marbury trade of 2003. And it was still a lottery pick. It had just run through its full course of protections. And the Knicks, having bare cupboards by 2010, really could have used that pick.

      That was the 9th pick in the draft. Utah selected Gordon Heyward with it. Paul George went next at 10.

      So yeah, we traded the chance to draft Paul George in 2010 for Stephon Marbury in 2003.

      We need to stop giving up draft picks. Full stop.

    20. boomshanka

      Umm correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t JR and the Knicks hide his injury and intentionally delay his surgery until he inked a deal? And now we’re hearing the excuse that he won’t be 100% for the entire season?

    21. KnickfaninNJ

      Er,

      I don’t think most of us would complain if the trade was Felton and Shump for Lowry. That would two serviceable guards for one better one. I know I wouldn’t be complaining. It’s adding in the draft choice or more that is the problem. Also the Knicks are so capped out they might not be able to resign Lowry even if they wanted to.

    22. er

      Er,
      I don’t think most of us would complain if the trade was Felton and Shump for Lowry. That would two serviceable guards for one better one. I know I wouldn’t be complaining. It’s adding in the draft choice or more that is the problem. Also the Knicks are so capped out they might not be able to resign Lowry even if they wanted to.

      I agree. Only they get Lowrys Early Bird Rights

    23. hoolahoop

      Short of getting an elite point guard AND the knicks suddenly playing consistently with great chemistry for the remainder of the season (two things that are not happening), the entire focus should be on building a team that can possibly win a championship. That takes at least three to five years.

      Making trades that may, or may not, add a few wins to a meaningless season is kicking the can down the road for the clock to start ticking on being an elite team.

    24. KnickfaninNJ

      Didn’t wealso have early bird rights for Prigioni andCopeland butcould only sign one of them because we were over the cap?

    25. Frank

      I love Shump but I think he’s pretty overrated. His on-ball defense is sometimes sensational and sometimes bad, his foul rate is completely unacceptable, and as someone wrote above, he seems completely incapable of being a competent defender in PNR situations. On offense I truly wonder whether he has more potential than Bruce Bowen (ie. stand in corner and shoot 3’s off other people’s action). He’s got a nice handle and seems like he should be a great finisher, but he’s not. Now maybe he would flourish in another situation (CHANGE OF SCENERY CROWD ALERT!!) but I’m pretty sure that’s not here.

      on top of him being somewhat overrated, he’ll be a restricted free agent after next season and we’ll either lose him for nothing or end up using some of our precious 2015 cap space to sign him.

      So my thought is — we’ve got to play him and play him a lot. I mean like 32-36 minutes/game. Let’s see what we have. If he flourishes, then we have either a good trade piece or at least we’ll know we want to keep him. But this yo-yo he’s on right now is bad for his trade value AND his development. If we had a significantly better option (THJr and JR do not count), then maybe not, but we don’t.

    26. Brian Cronin

      Didn’t wealso have early bird rights for Prigioni andCopeland butcould only sign one of them because we were over the cap?

      They didn’t have Bird Rights on either player (well, besides the basic “you can give any player on your team a slight raise the next year” rights that all teams have with their own free agents).

    27. Frank

      I for one think we should just ride with this team and see what happens. I’m definitely not a Felton fan, but I think it’s likely that the hamstring has been bothering him a fair amount. Maybe Toure Murry gets some burn and shows us something. Tyson will be coming back which will paper over a lot of things on both sides of the ball. Melo is playing some of his most controlled team basketball we’ve ever seen from him. And Amare is rounding into form. Then when we’re in January we’ll have a better idea of where we stand — are we 12-21 and basically completely out of it? Then TEAR IT DOWN. Are we 16-17 and starting to make a run? Then we can make a trade. Maybe Lowry’s gone by then, but he’s not exactly a franchise player.

      btw – everyone thinks Toronto has all the leverage here, but they probably don’t if they want to get something for Lowry. Because he’s expiring and has a reputation as a head case, my guess is that very few teams would be willing to give up anything close to our Dolan-squashed offer for what will be a 4-5 month rental of him.

      Re: the lottery pick – there have been a few lottery-protected picks that have turned into second round picks after all the protected years have gone by — doubt Ujiri would sign off on that, but it’s been done before.

    28. yellowboy90

      IS Shump the wing version of Bargnani? IS that too bold? I think it maybe true. Shump does struggle chasing wings around screens and display poor/lazy technique fight through screens.(see last play 1st Chi game) He gets beat back door more often than not and is not a great help defender but flashes brilliance from time to time. The one thing he can do is guard a player with the ball. So, why play him off the teams best ball handler so much?

    29. Hubert

      I feel like the shumpert is overrated argument is overrated.

      Tim Hardaway Jr has 300 minutes of hot shooting (playing almost exclusively with Prigioni, by the way, when there is ball movement and open shots. Whereas Shumpert plays mostly with Felton, Melo, JR, and the other ISO-loving, ball stopping, offense-killing shit on this team) and now we want to keep him over the guy who was arguably our second best player in the postseason last year.

      All the criticisms being levied against Shumpert right now are valid. But fucking hell, have a little patience with a good young player who’s getting jerked around by his idiot coach and spiteful owner.

    30. DRed

      Yeah, Shump’s improved his at the rim finishing to about league average, which isn’t great, but it’s also much better. He’s just not shooting that well this year. And he’s shooting a lot more unassisted shots. I suppose there might be something to him being a bad fit for this team, but the kid is a pretty good player.

    31. DRed

      IS Shump the wing version of Bargnani? IS that too bold?

      I get what you’re saying, but that’s way too bold. Bargnani sucks. The team is a sieve on defense with him on the floor. Shump is at least a pretty good player who has some flaws as a defender.

    32. Hubert

      Where’/how could I find a breakdown of Hardaway and Shumperts individual statistics with certain teammates? I feel like TH is flourishing in part because he gets to play on the units with Prigioni, which seem like they are all shooting better than the units without him. It seems like every 3 I’ve seen him hit has been a wide open look coming off an extra pass with Pablo in the game.

      Shump, meanwhile, seems to always be languishing with ISO heavy easy to defend lineups.

      That is a pretty big deal when comparing the two players.

      But of course, I’m going by feel. Would love to know how to look this stuff up.

    33. Hubert

      I still think of Zach Lowe’s take on it and think instead of trading him to the team that instills the good habits in him why can’t we just fucking be the team that does it?

      Shumpert has used 12.7 percent of New York’s possessions this season. That is almost unfathomable for a perimeter player who can, you know, dribble the basketball.

      Basically, Shumpert never gets the ball. He touches the rock just 1.4 times per minute on the floor, according to SportVu tracking data.

      But, man, you long to see this guy in a different offense. This season’s Knicks are dreadful to watch. No team devotes a higher share of possessions to isolation plays, and when the ball sticks with Anthony or J.R. Smith, defenses can stop and set themselves. When the ball gets to Shumpert, his defender is usually right there, with no ground to cover, perfectly balanced in Shumpert’s grill.

      And that’s a shame, because Shumpert has shown he can attack a defender scrambling to close out on him as he catches the ball. It’s hard for defenders rushing at shooters to stop their momentum, and Shumpert can drive by them, slice into gaps, and either score or kick the ball elsewhere. He’s a fundamentally unselfish player, happy to make the extra pass, though he has veered a bit toward me-first stuff at times this season — bad shots and highlight-reel dishes when something simpler would do. Stick this guy on the Rockets and you might have a player.

    34. DRed

      Where’/how could I find a breakdown of Hardaway and Shumperts individual statistics with certain teammates?

      nbawowy.com

    35. hoolahoop

      After seeing the MSG show on TH2 I have a better appreciation of him. He’s been shooting NBA 3’s since he’s nine years old. Reminds me of Novak having to “make” 300 shots everyday in his driveway before he was finished practicing.
      I see TH2 as a more athletic version of Novak, knocking down open 3’s, plus running the floor and finishing fast breaks. And he’s a good kid.
      I see a lot of upside.

    36. Frank

      Shump+Prigs = 10.3 true shot attempts (FG+FT possessions) per 36, TS 47.1
      Shump (-) Prigs = 8.4 TSA per 36, TS 51.5

      THJ+Prigs = 14.6 TSA/36, TS 56.8
      THJ (-) Prigs = 13.6 TSA/36, TS 64.4

      Pablo makes the offense better, but it’s not because Shump/THJ shoot better with him. Both have better TS without him (although both get more shot attempts WITH him). You know who’s WAAAY better with Pablo? JR — TS 36 without him, TS 57 with him.

    37. thenamestsam

      I still think Shump has a lot of talent and I do think there’s a pretty good chance that another team could find a real diamond in the rough there, but I’m just struggling to see much progress when I look at him.

      On defense, I think if anything he has gotten worse since his rookie season. That’s probably do at least in part to the knee surgery, but whatever the cause it just isn’t happening. Towards the end of his rookie year people on this board were constantly tossing his name around as a future DPoY type, and I haven’t seen that in ages, and rightfully so. I still think he could be a strong two-way player in the sense of a guy who’s above average at his position defensively, but at this point I would be absolutely shocked if he ever found himself anywhere near a DPoY conversation. He’s miles below that caliber.

      On offense, I’m confounded by Shump. He passes every aspect of the eye test for me – he moves well without the ball, his shot looks good, his handle is very decent for an off-guard, his finishing around the rim has seemingly improved, he’s an okay passer. And yet he’s averaging 9 points and 2.5 assists per 36 on mediocre efficiency. Despite his seemingly improving skills his field goals made and attempted per 36 have declined each year, and those Zach Lowe stats about time of possession really back it up – he just isn’t involved in the offense. And it seems like Shump has compensated for not being involved in the half-court offense by effectively doing a “my turn now” type of thing where he takes those horrid pull ups in transition, because otherwise he’d never get a shot attempt. I’m inclined to lay most of the blame for that on Woodson, but regardless of who takes the blame it’s hard to point to much improvement on the offensive end.

      I wish we were the team who could bring more out of him, but I think that’s really just wishful thinking. At some point we’re just sitting on an asset deteriorating in value. Smart thing to do…

    38. Hubert

      DRed, thanks for the tip! Never knew that existed. Boy is that a fun site.

      Well, if you were curious, my eye test utterly and completely failed me (probably to no one’s surprise).

      Hardaway’s minutes are fairly evenly split with or without Pablo. But he is doing his best work without the ball moving PG (60.2 eFG & 64.4 TS% without Prigioni, vs 54.8/56.8 with).

      Shump has had to play 435 out of his 589 minutes without Pablo. But his numbers are just bad across the board.

      So, never mind.

      I still don’t want to trade Shumpert, though.

    39. Frank

      What’s become clear regardless how this goes is that there really is a double standard when pundits, even the great Zach Lowe, talk about Knicks trades.

      Overall with the trade as constructed (and presuming there is some sort of protection on that 2018 pick), we’re sending out significant $ baggage (Felton) + filler (MWP) + asset (2018 pick) for Lowry (expiring though).

      Now compare that with the draft day trade New Orleans made with Philly —
      Young PG on iffy contract (Holiday, age 23, making $10M+/year through 16-17 season) + #42 pick in 2013 draft for super-athletic maybe #1 pick-worthy Nerlens Noel AND a 2014 1st round pick (only top 5 protected).

      Now let’s compare Holiday to Lowry — and if you look here just at their 4th seasons http://bkref.com/tiny/9stJx, Lowry is (statistically) superior to Holiday in essentially every way other than 3P% (and he STILL had a much superior TS). If you look at their numbers from last year, Lowry is obviously superior statistically http://bkref.com/tiny/uqRcZ. Defensively, they’re probably a wash. And while it’s true that Holiday is locked up for 4 more years, the Knicks WOULD have bird rights on him and could conceivably sign him for LESS than Holiday is guaranteed to make (ie. Dragic-like numbers at 7.5MM/year) — and even if he left, it wouldn’t be a complete loss because they’d have even more cap space for the BIG PLAN 2015-16.

      And instead of mocking that trade as he did this potential trade on Twitter (saying giving up a 1st round pick for a league-average PG was a joke, basically), he said it had the opportunity to be something like the Hill – Kawhi trade. If Holiday is anything, he’s a league average point guard, and he makes $11MM/year through 2016-17. He’s a liability at that number and at his current production.

      Anyway, had to get that off my chest. btw back in 2011 Lowe ranked Bargs #66 in the league and Roy Hibbert #87. And Lowry #56 and Harden at #54. So much for prognostication.

    40. Brian Cronin

      The presumption regarding the protection is the key, though, Frank. No one in any of the reports have said anything but “2018 first round pick.” If there isn’t any protection, then the trade should be mocked, and I can only assume Lowe is going off on the trade based on that being the premise.

      A protected 2018 first rounder changes the whole trade. It makes it a whooooole lot more palatable.

    41. er

      Nice post Frank,

      I dont think the trade is that bad. For that 2018 pick you basically get to keep three pieces for the near future in shump timmy and lowry. What makes it look bad is the trade of the 1st for Bargs and Melo and that i think is clouding the perception of the proposed trade

      And yes it should be protected

    42. Frank

      yeah absolutely- my whole post was couched in the assumption that there would be significant (at least lottery-) protections on that pick. If it’s unprotected, then f*ck them.

      btw – one potential upside to trading the 2018 pick with ANY kind of protection on it – I think it would prevent us from dealing either the 2019 or 2020 pick (did I just write that?!?!?!) because the Knicks couldn’t guarantee that the pick wouldn’t be conferred in those years.

    43. Kevin Udwary

      Hey Hubert, check out the splits for Shump with JR on/off the court. He is significantly worse with JR on the court this season – TS%/USG 43.6/10.4 with JR, 52.6/14.7 without.
      Last season he was about the same scoring, but with much lower usage when playing with JR:
      TS%/USG 52.2/12.9 with JR, 51.2/18.2 without.

    44. The Ghost of Ted Nelson

      If you look at their numbers from last year, Lowry is obviously superior statistically

      There is nothing obvious or superior in the comparison. Lowry is obviously superior statistically if you ignore the fact that Holiday scored a lot more points while shooting better from both 3 and 2 point range, while averaging the same number of assists/36. But the comparison, as you frame it, is made even more moot by the fact that Holiday is 22 years old, and Lowry ain’t getting younger.

    45. Brian Cronin

      From Woj’s latest report on the current trade offer it sure sounds like the 2018 pick is not protected.

    46. Hubert

      Of course it isn’t.

      The best we’re going to get out of this is something like top 3 or top 1 protected.

      It’s a joke.

    47. The Ghost of Ted Nelson

      Felton, who at Lowry’s current age the Knicks bought for salary relief + a 2nd round pick + their previous year’s draft pick (Kostas Papanikolaou), so that’s the going price for mid-level PGs with no upside for the Knicks. So for Ujiri to ask for less would be foolish. Since Felton doesn’t even represent salary relief, but rather additional salary for two years longer, he should absolutely ask for young assets. A 2nd rounder or two would probably be enough, except the problem is he already taken all of those from us, so he has to deal with what he’s left us with. Which ain’t much. (But that certainly doesn’t mean that we should give it to him)

    48. Hubert

      Speaking of Woj tweets…

      Why would the Nets want Kyle Lowry?

      Can we PLEASE see through this obvious smokescreen?

      You think it’s dumb for us to make this move? How about them trading a 2020 unprotected pick to upgrade the BACKUP point guard on a shit team?

      Good lord.

    49. Frank

      There is nothing obvious or superior in the comparison. Lowry is obviously superior statistically if you ignore the fact that Holiday scored a lot more points while shooting better from both 3 and 2 point range, while averaging the same number of assists/36. But the comparison, as you frame it, is made even more moot by the fact that Holiday is 22 years old, and Lowry ain’t getting younger.

      Ghost of Ted, it’s like actually alive Ted never clued you into the idea of scoring efficiency. Lowry has turned into a better-than-average TS guy and Holiday is a significantly below average TS guy because of the difference in their shot distributions ie. Lowry shoots a lot more 3’s and has an elite free throw rate (career free throw rate of 0.44 vs. Holiday’s 0.18). His shot distribution and free throw rate are like James Harden-lite whereas Holiday has a crappy distribution and a REALLY crappy free throw rate.

      And sure, Felton and Lowry are exactly the same, except for the fact that Lowry can shoot, get to the line, and defend worth a damn. But other than those non important things, they’re identical.

    50. hoolahoop

      Well, no one else is saying it, so maybe i’m the only one that thinks it – I don’t think Felton is horrid.
      I know he’s not great, and I’ve long believed the PG is the most important position on the floor. The knicks need an elite PG to become a serious team. CP3, Tony Parker, D.Will calibre. It should have been priority number 1, 2 and 3 for the past five years. Lowry isn’t that.

      Felton is serviceable. Sometimes he’s good. Really good. His first stint here he played well. He’s been playing hurt, and this teams offense, partly his fault, is dysfunctional. I’d only trade him for a substantial upgrade. Lowry isn’t that, either.

      This season is toast. I’m thinking two, three seasons down the road. Every trade should be about building for the future.

    51. nicos

      Frank
      December 13, 2013 at 4:51 pm
      Meanwhile Hubert, is your actual name Jared Zwerling?
      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1886446-inside-the-one-trade-the-knicks-and-clippers-could-discuss-melo-for-griffin

      Is it odd that Zwerling assumes that Melo would be better for the Clips than Griffin from a marketing prospective? Griffin’s “Q rating” ought to be higher as his commercials run pretty constantly and I’d guess you get 2 Griffin clips for every one of Melo’s on Sportscenter. Still Melo has gotten a bunch more votes for the all-star game so maybe Zwerling is right. I’m not a huge Griffin fan but I’d do the deal just because of age and the fact that even with a 15% trade kicker he’d still be cheaper than resigning Melo unless Melo takes a pay cut. On the down side, Griffin’s TS% is .558 playing in Lob City- I think it pretty safe to assume that’d take a pretty significant hit if he moved here to iso town.

    52. flossy

      This season is toast. I’m thinking two, three seasons down the road. Every trade should be about building for the future.

      That’s nice, but since there’s absolutely no indication that the Knicks FO is actually going to do the hard reset everyone here craves, it would be pretty stupid to turn down a substantial upgrade at PG (which, yes, Lowry is) because you just want to see the world burn.

    53. DRed

      Trading for Lowry is an interesting conundrum. The first question is: what is our long term plan? If we’re serious about making a play for Rondo, then we’re just going to rent Lowry for the rest of the season. If that’s the case, you can’t give away Shump, Hardaway or a pick for him. If the plan is to resign Lowry, it’s not the end of the world to part with Shump, Hardaway or a pick, because Lowry is a significantly better player than Felton, is a very good player and is in his prime. On the other hand, if you trade Shump, you just downgraded shooting guard to improve our point guard. Hardaway is even more complicated. He’s playing really well right now (and making me look like an idiot while doing so). But it’s only 300 minutes into his NBA career, and as almost all of his value comes from his scoring, he’s not going to be useful if this turns out to be just a hot stretch. His 3-PT% is significantly higher right now than it ever was in college. So we might be selling high on a player who doesn’t turn out to be much more than a decent scorer. As for the draft pick, I’m just thoroughly sick of giving them away. Giving Toronto 4 fucking picks in one year where there’s at least a decent chance we’ll be hitching our wagons to a wildly overpaid decline-phase Carmelo substantially cripples our chances of improving the team on the cheap in the future.

    54. hoolahoop

      That’s nice, but since there’s absolutely no indication that the Knicks FO is actually going to do the hard reset everyone here craves, it would be pretty stupid to turn down a substantial upgrade at PG (which, yes, Lowry is) because you just want to see the world burn.

      It’s a mentality like yours that this team caters to, which is exactly why the knicks are where they are now.
      Stupid deal after stupid deal trying to inch up the ladder to be an 8-seed, and always being burned. You want to trade picks and the knicks best young talent, then cry when the guy they traded for turns out to be shit or gets hurt. . . just digging deeper and deeper.

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