Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Knicks Draft Prospects

Today’s article is by lifelong KnickerBlogger commenter Ted Nelson. It won second place in the “Can You Be A KnickerBlogger?” Contest


The draft is an afterthought in NYC this year, between the bright lights shining on free agency and the Knicks lack of a first rounder. The Knicks do, however, have two picks early in the second round at 38 and 39. Your chances of finding a quality NBA player in the second round aren’t great, but the 2010 draft is still a legitimate chance to add talent. With only a handful of players likely to return, the Knicks need talent. (The Knicks may also choose to add a first rounder through a trade.)

While the pickings are usually slim in the 2nd round, there is still NBA talent available. Current NBA stars picked in the 2nd round include Manu Ginobili, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Monta Ellis, Luis Scola, and Michael Redd. And there are a host of contributors of lesser stature who fell to the second. All four of last season’s conference finalists had at least one rotation player who was not taken in the first round.

There is a reason players fall to the second round, though. If they were home run draft picks they would have gone in the first. It’s often a discrepancy between a player’s performance and the scouting report on their skills. Sometimes a kid comes in as a top recruit with all the skill in the world and fails to impress, but in other cases a mediocre athlete who doesn’t even look like he could hang at the local Y tears it up in college or Europe.

Below are 18 prospects projected to go anywhere from the late first to undrafted, organized along the lines of categories that commonly bread second round success. It’s hard to predict who will be on the board when the Knicks picks come up. It’s unlikely that all of these guys will be on the board at 38, but some of them will be.

Character Questions

These guys have the skill to play in the NBA, but can they deal with the mental grind and be productive members of the team and community?

Examples: Ruben Patterson, DeAndre Jordan, Andray Blatche, Glen Davis–weight

Lance Stephenson Cincinnati 6-4/5 210 G 19
Stephenson has a big ego and doesn’t like to share the ball. However, he’s also a great athlete with good basketball skills. Watching Cincinnati-West Virginia in the Big East tournament I was pretty convinced that Stephenson was the best NBA prospect on the court… even with Da’Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks also on the court.

Stephenson has the handle of a PG and size/scoring ability of a SG. Unfortunately he doesn’t have a PG mentality and maybe not the mentality to be an efficient scorer at the 2. He can be a plus defender at either back-court spot. Ultimately the defensive side is where a lot of his value should come from. Whether he can develop the mentality necessary to be a reasonably efficient scorer within a team structure is the question.

If he’s still on the board when the Knicks pick he’s a difficult talent to pass up: by that point in the draft there are only so many guys about whom you can say “he clearly has the talent to play in the NBA.” If there are other good options on the board, though, he’s really easy to pass up. I would say that personal interviews go a long way towards judging who Lance Stephenson really is. His stock is understandably volatile and it’s not clear whether he’ll be one of the first guys taken in the second round or go undrafted.

Renardo Sidney Mississippi State 6-10 275-400 PF 20
Sidney was a big-time recruit–#1 in his class at some point–who couldn’t get on the court due to NCAA rule violations. Never mind that a bunch of old guys making millions off the labor of student-athletes like him suspended him for profiting from his ability, his lacksidasical attitude and weight gain during the suspension are legitimate causes for concern. He’s a 6-10 PF who has been compared to Chris Webber, so by the 2nd round he’s a very intriguing prospect. After taking a year off it will be interesting to see where he’s at developmentally. The whole reason for the age limit was to see how prospects would do against better competition, but with Sidney we don’t have that.

To me it’s pretty similar to Stephenson, where if there’s nothing else that intrigues you on the board take a shot if the kid shows you something in interviews/workouts. Probably even riskier than Stephenson, but he’s 6-10.

Underachievers

Billed as lottery picks entering college or even their final season, but didn’t live up to the hype or build on their previous season. Now they’re projected to go in the 2nd round. Can they bounce back and justify that lottery hype? Or is their slide justified?

Examples: Chase Budinger, Bill Walker, Chris Duhon

Willie Warren Oklahoma 6-4 207 G 20
Warren had a good freshman year as Blake Griffin’s side kick. The expectation was that he’d emerge from Griffin’s shadow this season and become one of the top players in the country. It didn’t happen. It’s not really that Warren played a lot worse. He just didn’t get better and the Sooners didn’t win. His TOs sky-rocketed and his very solid 3 pt shot turned into a liability. One more season might have helped him set the record straight and guarantee a first round spot. Then again, a bad season might have dropped him out of draft consideration all together.

Warren is a combo-guard who can score the ball and defend either back-court spot. Wouldn’t fill a need with Toney Douglas on the roster, but may be too good a talent for the Knicks to pass up if he’s still on the board. An NBA player.

Craig Brackins Iowa State 6-10 230 PF 22
After spending a couple of years in the lottery of mock drafts, Brackins is a consensus second rounder at this point. Brackins is a skilled offensive player with somewhat of a finesse game. His scoring and rebound volumes both took a considerable hit from his sophomore to junior seasons, as did his scoring efficiency. Has a good overall game that should allow him to play in the NBA. Has range out to the college 3 and also a somewhat of a post game. Inconsistent scorer, though. A little rare for a 6-10 guy with his scoring talent to fall to the second round, so the Knicks should take a look if he’s still on the board.

Overachievers

These guys were productive college stars, but scouts have questions about whether their game will translate to the NBA. Historically these guys are the inverse to the Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams types who have failed to match their college productivity in the pros after being drafted high: the Josh Howard, Tayshaun Prince, Carlos Boozer types who fell in the draft but proved their doubters wrong with successful pro careers.

In a sense this is the best bet for a successful second round draft pick–the guy can play, but scouts don’t seem to realize it. The problem is figuring out which player has the skills but is being underrated. It looks obvious in hindsight, but is often a lot harder at the time.

Examples: DeJuan Blair, Carl Landry, Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol, Paul Millsap, Ryan Gomes, Steve Blake

Greivis Vasquez Maryland 6-5 195 G 23
ACC Players of the Year have enjoyed a fair amount of NBA success. The award guaranteed nothing for Julius Hodge, Juan Dixon, Joseph Forte, or Chris Carrawell, though. Vasquez had a strong overall game at the college level, but you have to question which parts will translate to the NBA. He’s a combo-guard who is unlikely to walk into the league as a PG and he may lack either the shot or the athleticism to be much of a scorer at the NBA level. The optimistic view is that he’s a 6-6 combo-guard who can play the one or the two in the NBA, the negative view is that he’ll be a star… in Europe. Knicks could do worse by the 38th pick: he wants it and he can play.

Da’Sean Butler West Virginia 6-7 225 SF 22
Butler was a first round lock before injuring his knee in the national championship game. Well rounded game. Solid scorer, though a little high-volume/low-efficiency in college. Can score multiple ways. Good ball-handler and playmaker. Good defender. If his scoring doesn’t translate to the NBA does he bring enough to the table to be an NBA player?

Quincy Pondexter Washington 6-6/7 215 SF 22
Questionable whether he’ll fall to the Knicks pick. A strong all-around wing prospect. A polished college player who is going to bring a little bit of everything. Question is his upside and whether he brings enough of any one thing. Questions also about how he will transition from the college 4 to the NBA 3. (There were similar questions about a guy like Josh Howard.)

Sherron Collins Kansas 5-11? 190 PG 23
Collins is one of the best college guards in the draft. He’s an undersized bowling ball who may not have much NBA success, though. I think the comparisons to Will Bynum seem fair, as he lacks the other-worldy athleticism of Nate Robinson. Collins is a flat out basketball player who will probably have a very successful pro career in Europe if he fails to make it in the NBA.

Jordan Crawford Xavier 6-4 195 SG 21
You have to question whether he can adjust to being a complementary scorer after having the ball in his hands all the time at Xavier: he lacks great finishing ability but does have a strong outside shot. If he adjusts he should be a solid NBA off-guard. He has a very good handle and is a solid playmaker at the 2. Should be able to hold his own defensively, though he’s unlikely to be a plus defender. Not really undersized, but size is also not a plus. May be gone by the time the Knicks pick.

Unexpected Faller

It’s impossible to say who this will be at this point, because in that case it would be expected. There are usually some guys in the draft that everyone and their mother think should go earlier but just keep falling. Consensus doesn’t always mean success in the NBA draft, but sometimes teams pass on no-brainers (DeJuan Blair being one of the most obvious examples in history). This years early candidate is Da’Sean Butler, who I thought was getting a little too hyped but has now fallen to the late second in mock drafts after injuring his knee in the national championship game. Armon Johnson is an intriguing guy who may fall to the Knicks.

Examples: DeJuan Blair

Big Bodies

Size is at a premium in the NBA, and the draft is often the best way to get it. Once teams have a strong bigman on their roster they usually lock him up. The draft is a chance to get first dibs on a big guy. By the 2nd round you’re looking for a diamond in the rough, a specialist, or a grit guy. This is a deep draft for bigmen, though, compared to last seasons vertically challenged draft class.

Undersized bigs (6-6 PFs) tend to be really underrated and there is one success story almost every year. This year a lot of talented guys in the 2nd have legit size, though.

Examples: DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Nick Fazekas!, Paul Millsap, Leon Powe, Ronny Turiaf, Andray Blatche, Amir Johnson, Anderson Varejao, Matt Bonner, Boozer, Scola…

Daniel Orton Kentucky 6-10 260 F/C 19
Orton unexpectedly declared for the draft after riding the pine behind Cousins and Patterson all season. With little NCAA experience to go on, it’s not clear whether he’ll go in the lottery or fall to the second round. Orton has great size for the PF spot, solid size at C. Has a strong all-around game as a rebounder and defender. He didn’t show much scoring ability at Kentucky, but has the makings of a well-rounded offensive game for a F/C. It’s a little odd he didn’t spend another season at Kentucky and propel himself into the lottery. If he falls all the way to the Knicks I’d say his upside is worth the risk.

Jarvis Varnado Mississippi State 6-9 210 F/C 22
Already a fan favorite at Knickerblogger, Varnado is the kind of shot-blocker the team could use. A good athlete who could fit in as a 5 for D’Antoni because he gets up and down the floor well. May get pushed around at the 5, though, especially early in his career. Also a strong rebounder. Efficient scorer around the basket. A lowish case scenario is maybe Steven Hunter, who played some of his best NBA ball for D’Antoni in Phoenix. Upside has been compared to Theo Ratliff. I would consider the Knicks lucky if Varnado falls to them. As Knicks fans we know how valuable it is to have some interior defense.

Solomon Alabi Florida State 7-1 251 C 22
I somehow don’t see a seven footer who was a bigtime recruit falling to the second round, but that’s where he is in some mocks. Others have him in the early 20s. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team takes him in the 20s as a project. Alabi has the tools to be a very good defensive C. He is raw, though, and there’s a chance he’s still on the board when the Knicks pick. With back-to-back picks it’s hard to pass him up in the late 30s. Hopefully D’Antoni’s reluctance to play 5s doesn’t factor into the decision.

Dexter Pittman Texas 6-10 310 C 22
Truly a BIG body. Pittman is a skilled inside scorer, but has trouble staying on the court for more than a couple of minutes at a time (literally). And that’s a big improvement in his conditioning since his freshman year. I didn’t include him in character issues since he clearly wants to improve and be a team player, it’s just a matter of whether he is physically able to. He might find his way into an NBA rotation as a 4th bigman in a role similar to the one Glen “uno-uno” Davis plays for the Celtics (and he’d probably manage to score a lot more efficiently than the player formerly known as Big Baby).

The Euro Route

This is a popular route with second round draft picks since teams can watch how the prospect develops while still holding their draft rights. Things have changed since the days when Manu fell to the 2nd to last pick in the draft, and top young talents rarely go unnoticed. However, it’s still possible to find a promising young kid and watch him develop. In a lot of cases this is actually preferable to taking a European in the late first, where the salary a team can offer is not competitive with what European teams can.

Examples: Ginobili, Scola, Okur, Marc Gasol, Ersan Ilyasova, Varejao, Goran Dragic, Marcin Gortat.

Kevin Seraphin France 6-10 255 F/C 20
One of the most intriguing international prospects in this draft, Seraphin is a big-time athlete as well as a big-time project. The 20 year old is probably someone you want to leave in Europe for a couple of years. That might not appeal to the Knicks, who have a lot of holes on their roster now. Seraphin could end up being a perfect bigman for D’Antoni: a big athlete who excels on the pick-and-role and finishing at the basket. Plays for the same team as 2009 draftees Rodrigue Beaubois and Nando de Colo. Got decent playing time for a 20 year old and got better as the season went on. The type of high upside guy who could develop into a star or could never make it to the NBA.

Pablo Aguilar Spain 6-8 210 PF 21
Doesn’t have the highest upside in the world, but a productive player at a young age. Plays in the toughest domestic league in Europe and is one of the best player on a borderline playoff team. Came up with Real Madrid before being transfered. A face-up 4 with a good outside shot. Downside is that he’s a total ‘tweener. With the success he’s had in the ACB at a young age he’s likely to continue to improve and become a star in Europe. It’s a question whether he’ll even improve enough to be an NBA rotation player. Probably a specialist who will have more success in certain situations and for certain coaches: i.e. a PF who doesn’t rebound or score inside the 3 pt line. Comparable to Jorge Garbajosa.

Nemanja Bjelica Serbia 6-10 210 G/F almost 22
Described as a PG trapped in a PF’s body by draftexpress.com. Sounds like a project with a long way to go, but apparently opinions vary widely on him. Certainly has strong upside. At 22 he better start getting a lot closer to that upside soon.

Miroslav Raduljica Serbia 6-11 240 C 22
A legit center prospect with a good offensive game. You have to think his potential is somewhat limited or he’d be a lot more hyped. Could be a diamond in the rough, though.

Alexey Shved Russia (CSKA Moscow) 6-5 161 G 21
Talented player with good upside, but a raw project right now. Plays for one of the best teams in Europe, CSKA Moscow. Doesn’t get on the court much. A wait and see prospect who could develop into a star in Russia and then make the jump to the NBA.

Others

Some other typical second round success categories that I’m not sure about 2010 examples for are the hustle defender (Luc Mbah a Moute, Trevor Ariza, Keith Bogans, Amir Johnson) or the guy who came out too early (Trevor Ariza, Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, Mo Williams, Andray Blatche). The second category especially depends on draft position.

19 comments on “Knicks Draft Prospects

  1. TDM

    Nice list of talent, Ted. I think if Alabi or Orton fall, the Knicks would have to pick them. However, my personal favs that I think the Knicks have a real shot at are Vasquez and Varnado. That said, if the Knicks could package their picks to get into the first round I’d love to see them make a play for Whiteside.

  2. Fofs

    You are being overly positive about some of those guys Pondexter and Warren, are late 1st rounders in most good mocks and are unlike to fall unless they are terrible on workouts. I don’t see Alabi faling that much either even with terrible workouts (to great a body for someone not to take a flyer before) and Chad Ford says Orton only come out because Thunder already promise to take him if he falls (he is from OKC and they really need a center) and the Thunder owns #21, #27 and #32, so I’d guess they are taking him at some point before he could fall to the Knicks.

  3. Ted Nelson Post author

    Thanks for posting this Mike!

    TDM,

    This definitely seems like a great opportunity for the Knicks to finally get a big guy or two. The depth of bigmen in this draft is really good.

    Fofs,

    That was the hardest part of compiling a list of prospects for the second round: who will actually be available? At the same time, the guys who might not be available could be the most attractive prospects should they slip. I looked at a few mocks, mostly concentrating on nbadraft.net (which I trust the most, purely a subjective thing) and draftexress.com. Those are sites that as far as I can tell are run by scouts, or at least huge basketball nuts (I trust these guys more than journalists). Everyone on the list was in the second round on either nbadraft.net or draftexpress.com. I included a disclaimer at the top that most of these guys will not be available (but which ones will?) and in the case of all the guys you mention I specifically noted that their talent warrants a first round selection (and stupid Kyle Singler pulling out probably opens up another spot ahead of the Knicks). Just tried to do a general sweep of the guys I am familiar with–or not so familiar with in some cases… only Euro on the list I’ve seen play is Aguilar–who might be available.

    Interesting about Orton. OKC could use more talent in the middle definitely (to replace Jeff Green as much as anyone), but with Ibaka and Kristic OKC isn’t terrible at the 5.

  4. ess-dog

    Wow, this already? List looks great. Hard to tell how realistic/not realistic it is yet since workouts change things a fair amount.
    It is amazing how far Warren has dropped – he was a projected top 5 last year. He could stand to lose over 2 mil in 2010 just by staying in college an extra year.
    First off, I think we need a competent 7 footer. Every good team has one – every championship winner has had at least one and often two. They are the difference makers that even a 6’9″ guy with super hops and mongoloid arms can’t make up for.
    That being said, 1) I’m not sure D’Antoni believes that, and 2) it’s highly unlikely we’ll find a competent 7 footer in the 2nd round. So if we do manage to go this route, we will probably need to move up to the 20-25 pick maybe to get Alabi. Orton’s a bit shorter and more of an unknown, but I wouldn’t be too unhappy with him. If we are drafting around there and don’t get the big boys, I would love Larry Sanders out of VCU. He’s like Varnado on defense but with some deft post moves. He would be great in the D’Antoni system. Look at his tape though, he could rise.
    If we keep the 2 2nd rounders, I think Varnado would make a solid rotation guy eventually. I could see going with Stephenson with one of those picks. Local boy makes good. He could use a year in D-league though. And with Walker, maybe we don’t really need that risk.
    If you go point guard, Vasquez vs. Collins is a tough call. Hearing “lack of lateral quickness” scares me though in the case of Vasquez so I would probably go with Collins if given the choice.
    What’s the story on Jerome Jordan? I keep reading “low motor on defense” which isn’t good I suppose…

  5. Owen

    Ted, nice post! Great stuff, though not as great as a lottery pick would be.

    Enjoying the playoff commentary on the web…

    I love it when Kobe has one of his “vintage” performances, 39 points on 12-28 from the field, 14-15 from the line, league average ts%, -2 on the night. “Once more, resistance to his will is futile,” according to the Yahoo guy with the unspellable last name…

    And I love how Big Baby Davis showed his stuff last night, it’s going to be hilarious when someone signs him to a big contract expecting him to be a productive NBA starter, which he most definitely is not…

  6. Ted Nelson Post author

    ess-dog,

    Should have included Jerome Jordan, but don’t really know much about the guy. He might be the only legit 7 footer left on the board at 38 besides Zoubek and some other college scrubs. From the youtube clips I’ve seen he’s got the size and athleticism to easily justify an early-to-mid second round pick… if not higher. Worst case sort of looks like a Loren Woods, who got several chances in the NBA and wasn’t a bad second round pick. (Woods was maybe more skilled, but weaker.) I could see him being a bit of a sleeper and surprising some people (especially with a good passing team/PG), but even if he’s a Loren Woods or Dwayne Jones or Jerome James or Patrick O’Bryant type that’s not a bad second round pick (most guys in the 2nd never play an NBA minute). Really depends on who else is on the board. If I drafted him I might appoint a personal assistant coach to him to work on his defense and overall game.
    Had two solid games against Whiteside. Whiteside is younger, but has to count for something in the “from a mid-major and didn’t play any real comp” category.

    Should have also included Trevor Booker (Clemson) and Dwayne Collins (Miami) under the undersized PF category. That’s probably the most successful category, easiest to find an overlooked prospect. Again, though, I haven’t seen them play. (I think I saw Miami at least once this season, but don’t remember Collins particularly.)

    Included Armon Johnson only as a faller because I think he will whoa teams with his workouts and climb draft boards or solidify himself in the 20s. I caught a few Nevada games this season, and the guy just looks like an NBA PG. Maybe he falls, though.
    Other guys I should have included but don’t know much about and didn’t want to make the list go on forever are Dominique Jones, Terrico White, Darington Hobson, Mikhail Torrance, Kenneth Faried, Sylven Landesberg, Charles Garcia, Keith Benson, Art Parakhouski, Paulao Prestes, Tim Ohlbrecht, Herb Pope…

    Ebanks seems to be slipping on mocks. I can see why: trouble putting the ball in the bucket. I can see why he’s compared to Jared Jeffries and Corey Brewer, but I can also see why he was originally compared more to a Lamar Odom. I don’t see him falling to 38, but if he ends up being that guy… great. Even if he’s Jared Jeffries with better passing skill, that’s not a bad second round pick.
    If someone the Knicks love unexpectedly falls to the early 2nd you have to wonder whether it’s worth it to give up both picks just to move up a few spots. I see good arguments both ways.

  7. jaddddd1

    Ted,
    I went to Miami for 3 of Collins’ 4 years, and saw him play up close and personal many many times. If we draft him, I’ll know that no one on the Knicks’ scouting staff actually watched any of his games, they just see his big body and look at his stats. Collins is a man-beast of a physical specimen at about 6’11 270-280, but he doesn’t use his body like he should. He’s constantly stepping out and facing up, or shooting fade-away jumpers when he should be using his strength to overpower people. Every once in a while he’ll throw up a 25-15 game to show you that he should be doing it on a night-to-night basis, but he just doesn’t have the will to dominate in the post. He’s a lazy defensive player, mostly playing with his arms and not his feet. Miami went on a run in the ACC tourney with Reggie Johnson and Julian Gamble playing instead of Collins, who mostly clogged the lane for Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant while he did play this season. Collins’ numbers in his years at Miami mostly stayed the same while people projected he would be an impact player this year with Jack McClinton gone.

  8. Thomas B.

    Nice work! As a big nba draft fan I’ve been dying for this sort of draft prospect review. I’m glad that you wrote this because you always write way too much but this time I wanted to read it all. Good show.

  9. KNCIKS2010

    Excellent article. Really like the home-grown Lance Stephenson idea.
    Boy, that would be something else if we could get him.

  10. Brian Cronin

    Oh, off on a self-promoting tangent, my latest LA Times piece went up yesterday. You can check it out here. It’s about the time that Art Rooney actually sold the Steelers!

  11. NateRobinson

    I think Larry Sanders is a good player at the 39th pick. Hes long athletic, terrific shot blocker and rebounder. If er miraculously end up with a first I would like the knicks to get their hands on Ekpe Udoh. Hes young long and athletic. I am pretty sure we are going to draft a big defender/shotblocker.

  12. astrasberg

    It would be hard for the Knicks to pass up Varnado if he’s there, seems like a perfect solution to their defensive woes.

    A guy who intrigues me is Alexey Shved, though he seems like he could be a total bust as well.

    A guy who draftexpress.com has the Knicks getting is Kenneth Faried. He’d fall into the undersized 4 category. An “an extremely explosive and reactive athlete who runs the floor like a deer” (Draft Express March 10) he also ranked #4 in Hollinger’s College PER.

    NBADraft.net has the Knicks getting Stephenson & Alabi with Vazquez, Dwayne Collins , Warren, Jordan, Brackens & Booker still on the board.

    DraftExpress says its ranking don’t take into account team needs, has them getting Darrington Hobson & Faried with Brackens, Jordan, Varnado, Booker & Vazquez still available.

    I have to say, I’ve been reading the mock drafts since March. Sure this won’t be the last post on this topic around here.

  13. ess-dog

    I would be interested in knowing, for reasons of pure morbidity, how Jordan Hill’s college numbers stack up to this large group of late 1st/early 2nd round power forward prospects…

  14. chris.afroman

    Does anyone think that Denis Clemente from K-State will end up being taken in the draft? He has his rough spots, but his speed is rediculous, he defends hard, and he has a nasty pull-up 3. He could be a better Leandro Barbosa, if you ask me.

  15. joseali_31@hotmail.com

    Hey guys, since we would never get Rubio i think we should get this kid from gonzaga… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUt6aV4mpec…(Matt Boulding) 6’5″ PG/SG, great passing, good shooter, so,so defender but in this system who cares…i think he will run the pick and roll perfectly and is a second rounder (no much to lose)…I prefer him and Varnado (Shoot blocker). what you guys think??

  16. joseali_31@hotmail.com

    C’mon chris, he is good but he is not Barbosa. Clemente is 5’11” (a generous) he is quick but he will get use and abuse by NBA guards…See Toney D. He is at least 6’2″ and strong and still gets pushed around by NBA guards….he will be undraffted…

Comments are closed.