Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Knicks 93 Heat 115

The Knicks lost the 2010 opener in Miami 93 to 115. New York tied the game at 46 on a Lee layup with 2:49 left in the 2nd quarter. But the game fell apart for them shortly after. Miami would score 10 consecutive points in the next 2:19 and then outscore the Knicks 34-15 in the third quarter.

Some notes on the game:

  • Jeffries took the opening tip, but that’s the closest he came to being a center. Immediately after the tip, and for most of the game, he defended the SF position.
  • Continuing from last year, the Knicks continued their strategy of switching on nearly every pick. There were a few communication issues in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, where Miami got players undefended in the paint.
  • One quirk Darko Milicic has is to tip defensive rebounds to his teammates, which might explain his low rebounding numbers. He took hook shots with both his left & right hand, sinking both. And his passing is certainly underrated (3 ast in 17 mins), especially in the half court set. He could have had at least 2 more assists, but Knick players were unable to convert close to the hoop.

    The defense looked good with him on the floor, and the Heat did their biggest damage (late 2nd, early 3rd) with him on the bench. He didn’t register a blocked shot, but a few times players were unable to get a shot off or make their shot in the paint due to his presence. Milicic hurt his knee in the second half, but did return to the bench.

  • The Knicks were ice cold from three point land in the first half. They hit only 4 of 19 (21%).
  • Wilson Chandler’s first three attempts were all of the 18-21 foot variety, he hit only one of them.
  • In his first NBA minute, Toney Douglas committed a foolish foul on Daequan Cook’s attempted three pointer, running into him after the shot.
  • Danilo Gallinari got hot in the second half, and finished with 7 three pointers on 13 attempts. Most of them were wide open, but he hit one at least 5 feet from behind the arc. However he didn’t do much else on offense, and only had a single shot from inside the arc. It was a drive off of a three point head fake, and was blocked by Joel Anthony.
  • David Lee started off the game well, with some baskets in the paint and he hit a jump shot. But he picked up 2 fouls early, and had to sit out most of the first half.
  • Al Harrington had a Crawford-esque line: 5-14, 0 reb, 0 ast, 2 to. At one point when the Heat were pulling away in the 3rd, his inbound pass got intercepted by Dwayne Wade for a spectacular layup.
  • Jared Jeffries had 2 points in 35 minutes. He helped in other areas, (5 reb, 4 ast, 2 blk, 1 stl), but he also had 3 turnovers. Two of them for inexplicably stepping out of bounds near the three point line.
  • 62 comments on “Knicks 93 Heat 115

    1. latke

      if anyone’s looking to watch the games from outside new york, NBA league pass is free until nov 3.

      I don’t read too much into this game. The knicks had open look after open look from outside. They couldn’t buy one. Duhon and Robinson’s shots weren’t just missing, they were missing badly. You take out Gallinari’s 7/13 from behind the arc and the rest of the team was 3/23, or 13%. Both teams were making unforced errors and missing makable shot for the first 20 minutes, and then Miami made a few shots and seemed to find their confidence. Charlotte should allow us far more opportunities to get our heads together and put the opening day jitters behind us.

      One concern that I have though is that I don’t see Wilson Chandler ever being more than a mediocre perimeter player, and it seems that D’Antoni’s three point crazy offense allows him to play to this weakness, rather than taking the ball into the paint. Even a player like Shawn Marion knew that he wasn’t a great perimeter shooter. He never shot off the dribble from 20+ feet. Instead, if the offense left him with an open shot that came in rhythm, he took it, and if not, he put the ball on the floor, or kept the ball moving.

    2. Ted Nelson

      Good to see Darko showing a little something. Would love to see Lee primarily at PF, and maybe Darko is even a long-term asset of sorts.

      Wilson Chandler had 6 FTAs, so I’m pumped about that. 7 boards, too.

      Danilo is looking more like Peja than the former Kings Euro-wing he is more often compared to: Hedo. If he can shoot like Peja then that’s really not a problem. It’s encouraging in that if he adjusts to the speed of the NBA and develops on his Hedo, point-forward potential he might be the best European wing in NBA history by the end of his career. (Kukoc, for example, was only 33.5% from 3 and 53.2% TS% on his career. I suppose Kobe was born in Europe, though, right? Don’t want to get another Kobe debate started…)

      I know that this is ridiculous to point out after only one game, but glad that the two first round picks were a combined 1-5 for 3 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 1 TO, 2 PF, 8 minutes played…

      Ty Lawson: 26 min., 17 pts on 13 FGAs, 6 ast/ 1 TO, 4 reb, 1 stl, and +12 in a Denver win over the Jazz.

      DeJuan Blair: 23 min, 14 pts on 10 FGAs, 3 ast/ 2 TO, 11 reb (5 OReb), +11 in a SA win over the Hornets.

    3. BigBlueAL

      D’Antoni mentioned Darko after the game as a positive but limited his playing time because he injured his knee a bit and didnt want to push him much tonight.

      One thing I like about Gallo is that I think once he is fully adjusted to the NBA and physically feels 100% I believe he will easily average about 7 to 8 rebs per game. He is not afraid of contact at all and mixing it up down low for rebounds. I would like to see him do more than just shoot 3′s but man even though he will shoot some air balls and hit only backboard on some shots he really does shoot it lights out % wise. Once teams really start honoring his shot all he will have to di is pump fake and he can waltz into the lane which he is beginning to do some already.

      I like Lawson alot too but I still am not sure with his build that he is anymore than a 20-25 mpg backup spark plug off the bench. Not sure if he can handle playing starter’s minutes and if he wouldnt be exposed some if his minutes increased. I think he is like Nate but with less scoring and more passing. Havent seen Blair play yet in the NBA but cant deny his numbers thats for sure so far.

      Also interesting to see that Sessions came off the bench and played only 19 minutes while Flynn started and played 29 including the crunch-time minutes. Still wished the Knicks wouldve spent the 4 mil per year and signed Sessions, cant really stand watching Duhon play over 30 mpg anymore…..

    4. TheShipBeSinking

      One thing you can say about Gallinari is that he knows what his best attributes are and sticks to them- 14 shots, 13 of them from long range. It certainly makes him limited to a degree, but it’s useful in this offense and I’d rather he do that then try to force things off the dribble and commit TO’s. He’s also starting to show in flashes some of that professional basketball IQ that was one of his big selling points- drawing contact on Michael Beasley (I think) with a fake on the perimeter with the clock winding down for his 2 FT’s was one of those subtle little skills. He seems to have more confidence.

    5. Z

      Though the 2nd half was painful, the three people I was tuning in to watch (the Caucasian Invasion) all played well. It was great seeing Gallinari get hot and start raining threes. But I was also really satisfied with Darko’s game. I’d never paid attention to him before, but I liked what I saw. He moves well, passes well, wanted the ball in the post (and seemed to know what to do with it once he got it). Definitely an upgrade over Q.

      The rest of the players I am completely indifferent about except Marcus Landry. I’m kinda rooting for him too).

    6. Z-man

      I think that the volume of 3′s we are taking is excessive. It is boring basketball, win or lose. That sequence where we missed 4 consecutive shots was emblematic. 3-=40 a game? With this team?

      Steph appears to have had something on this point during his recent, otherwise unintelligible tirade.

    7. tastycakes

      The post-draft storyline that is gonna keep on giving…

      Ty Lawson: 26 mins, 17 pts on 7-13, 4 boards, 6 dimes, 1 steal, 1 TO, +12
      DeJuan Blair: 23 mins, 14 pts on 7-10, 11 boards, 3 dimes, 2 TO, +11

      Stephen Curry looked pretty decent in 36 minutes too: 14 pts on 7-12, 2 boards, 7 dimes, 4 steals, 2 TOs, +7

      But of course, he wasn’t available.

    8. d-mar

      Bad shooting is bad shooting, but one thing that bothered me about last night’s game was the smirks on the Heat players’ faces as they blew us off the court in the 3rd quarter. We saw that last year, too, almost like “The Knicks, are you kidding me?” And our response is blank stares and more 3 pt. attempts. D’Antoni referenced it in his press conference also, you just can’t let a team blow your doors off without showing some anger and a little pride. There was also a report that Hill was laughing as they walked off the court after the game, not a good sign,

    9. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Can anyone give examples of players who had poor per-36 stats from the beginning and went on to become all-star caliber players? Ty Lawson and DeJuan Blair are making me ill right now. They faced up with two quality teams and posted outstanding starter numbers in their first games. It’s pathetic when a bunch of guys on the internet, with the limited means we have, can accurately predict which players will fit in the NBA. I’m not saying that any of us have correctly predicted anything yet, but from the looks of things, the Knicks wasted two picks when there were better options available — and the “40-year-old dudes who live in their parents’ basements” called it.

      Time will tell, but I have a feeling (a hypothesis, more appropriately) that Blair and Lawson will not slow down.

    10. Owen

      “Ty Lawson and DeJuan Blair are making me ill right now.”

      Tell me about it. At least I have Lawson as my rookie pick in one of my fantasy leagues….

      Didn’t watch the game but getting beaten that badly by the Heat doesn’t feel good.

    11. ess-dog

      Well just reading the box score, what stood out to me AGAIN is the pathetic post defense. The dusty bones of Jermaine O’Neal: 10-12 FG, 22 pts, 12 boards.
      This is completely unacceptable. It’s clear Darko has to start as he is the only gritty post player we have with the ability to block shots and put a body on people. I know the shooting was bad, but Darko and Gallo need to play more, Jeffries and Al need to play way less.
      That was the REAL Al Harrington last night. Wilting against a good team. No toughness. He needs to come off the bench.
      And yes, Lawson and Blair are killing me too. Of course they both arguably play for two top-5 NBA teams- playing with great players makes you better. But it’s obvious that Hill was a “fit” pick by Walshtoni and was most likely a mistake.

    12. Kevin McElroy

      1) Hear, hear on Darko. I can’t believe I’m typing these words but we need to get Darko as involved on both sides of the ball as possible. When was the last time we had a frontcourt guy who could pass? Anthony Mason? Now we may have 2 (Darko and Gallo).

      2) It’s mind-blowing to me that we’re playing D’Antoni-ball without a 2-guard who can hit threes. I actually thought Chandler played pretty well last night (and you guys know I’ve been relatively low on him), but he is just not a good outside shooter, period, and they seem determined to make that the focal point of his game. The most depressing moment of last night’s game was Gallo’s slick baseline drive that drew multiple defenders and led to a nice kickout to Chandler, who promptly fired a three up off the backboard. That will remain a theme this year: wide open threes for guys who can’t hit them.

      3) Was I the only one who thought Nate looked a little tentative last night? I know he still shot plenty (and poorly), but I saw a bit more hesitation from him when he was dribbling in transition or when he received a pass near the arc. Maybe he spent the summer reading about how everyone thinks he needs to play within himself and he’s trying to figure out how; my worry is that his energy is 95% of the reason he’s in the league and it might not be a good idea to try to harness it. Rather, it’s more on the coaching staff to choose which moment are right for him to be used, knowing that he’s going to go full throttle during those moments.

    13. Kevin McElroy

      Jowles-

      Can’t say your wrong, although I think it bears mentioning that Blair is in the best possible place for his skill set (great halfcourt offense, good passers who will see him when he’s open around the basket, Duncan always commanding the attention of the other team’s defensive frontcourt) and the Knicks would be just about the worst (he’d get lost in transition and can’t shoot threes, meaning he’d probably play quasi-center on offense and be guarded by much bigger defenders). So while I really like Blair and think he will be a good pro, I don’t think its fair to take his performance with the spurs and say it would translate to the Knicks.

      Lawson, on the other hand….damn. I have no problem with Hill directly, he may have been the most logical pick on the board at the moment, but it always felt weird to me that a team without a long term solution at PG had the 8th pick in a draft that was PG-heavy and light everywhere else and was content to come out with a power forward, the only position where they have anything approximating “depth.” Lawson looked fantastic and the things he looked fantastic doing would have fit perfectly with the Knicks.

      Like you said, it’s just one game and time will tell but…damn.

    14. Kevin McElroy

      Fun Fact: Darko Milicic now has half as many 3-assist games in his Knicks career (1) as Eddy Curry (2).

    15. Owen

      “. I have no problem with Hill directly, he may have been the most logical pick on the board at the moment, but it always felt weird to me that a team without a long term solution at PG had the 8th pick in a draft that was PG-heavy and light everywhere else and was content to come out with a power forward, the only position where they have anything approximating “depth.”

      I have a problem with Hill. He put up mediocre stats on a mediocre team and was touted for his jumpshooting ability, which is always a sure sign of trouble in my book. Honestly, he had Channing Frye written all over him from the start and at this point it looks he may not even reach that (below average) level.

      It’s also crazy to me that Flynn, Holliday, Evans went before Evans. I guess, he dropped because people thought he was too small despite the fact that the best guard in the NBA, hands down, is 5-11 also.

      I think a major lesson from watching recent drafts is how durable the reputation formed in high school and on the AAU circuit is. That’s the only reason I can see why Evans and Holliday went so high.

    16. Dan Panorama

      This starting lineup has really got to go — Jeffries and Lee cannot be on the court at the same time, at least not without someone like Nate to take over the offense. Could you play Gallo at the 4 and Lee at the 5 or is that just complete defensive suicide?

    17. Ted Nelson

      Kevin,

      I think you have a point about Blair having it easier in SA than he would in NY. Except for the fact that he was subbed in and out for Tim Duncan, so you can’t say that it’s playing next to Tim Duncan that made him have a good game. He played mostly with McDyess, Bonner, and Ratliff as his frontcourt mates.

      So, it’s pretty easy to argue that he would still be a good player on the Knicks. He’d be out of position at C, but Lee is able to produce in this situation albeit at a high cost defensively. Blair might actually be a stouter defender at the 5, with his mass and long arms. Rebounding numbers are pretty consistent across time and space, and rebounding is Blair’s big strength.
      As far as the scoring, I don’t know that Blair will be a terribly efficient scorer (he wasn’t really in college). If he is, then you get into a David Lee type argument about whether it’s “garbage baskets” or skill. My feeling is that generally when a guy can consistently put it in the basket at a high rate in the NBA that’s skill. (Doesn’t mean you can necessarily expand or change his role and get the same results.)

      Now, D’Antoni may not play Blair. That’s valid. But that’s also why I wasn’t completely thrilled, and am still not, about the D’Antoni coaching pick. It dictates every personnel decision. It’s generally detrimental to pass up good basketball players for guys who “fit.” In this case it’s especially bad: guys with the scoring skills that work in 7SSOL are always at a premium, and especially in today’s NBA. “We’re going to beat the system by getting a bunch of athletic guys who score a lot” sounds pretty ridiculous when the system itself is to get a bunch of athletic guys who score a lot.

      I agree about Nate. Let Nate do what Nate do, and tell Toney Douglas to learn how to play before referring to himself in the 3rd person. In the Knicks case, given the lack of skill on the roster, I think the right time to let Nate go balls-to-the-walls is as many minutes as he can bear.
      The only thing I would like to see Nate change is his whining to the refs, that’s annoying. But if D’Antoni truly believes that the Knicks aren’t a playoff team because of Nate’s immaturity (he said something to that affect in preseason) then I don’t know what to say. I guess coaches have big egos, but how blind do they have to be to miss that the reason they win over an 82 game season is talent and the reason they lose is lack of talent?

    18. Ted Nelson

      “Jeffries and Lee cannot be on the court at the same time, at least not without someone like Nate to take over the offense.”

      I don’t really like the line-up either, but saying that you need someone to “take over” the offense seems like an unjustified swipe at Lee. He more than holds his own offensively
      Although, playing him at the 5 defensively probably hurts the Knicks as much as anything they do. Really hope Darko’s knee is alright. The Knicks are just not a good enough offensive team to give away points on D. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that besides beating themselves by missing so many 3s, the Knicks got beat by Jermaine O’Neal. I mean the guy is not an efficient scorer: 51.2% TS on his career, only above 53% once on his career when he hit 54%. He smoked them. Most of the Heat had nice lines, but no one besides O’Neal really stands out as “what the…?”

      When you don’t have someone like LeBron or Chris Paul or whoever who can legitimately “take over an offense” then asking someone to do so is basically letting them hijack the offense. Guys like Harrington, Chandler, and Nate didn’t seem to have any problem doing just that last season, and the fact that D’Antoni openly encourages such behavior makes me cringe. Encouraging players with poor shot selection to shoot at will is a bad strategy. I really hope that Bryan Colangelo gets more of his due as the mastermind behind those Phoenix teams, because D’Antoni’s magical system is getting somewhat demystified.
      Don’t get me wrong, I think D’Antoni is a solid coach. I just don’t understand the belief that you can win more with mediocre talent by telling the to shoot more bad shots. If that were the case then Isiah Thomas would be well on his way to more rings than Phil Jackson.

      “I like Lawson alot too but I still am not sure with his build that he is anymore than a 20-25 mpg backup spark plug off the bench. Not sure if he can handle playing starter’s minutes and if he wouldnt be exposed some if his minutes increased.”

      I don’t follow your logic, BBA. What I read is: because he’s short he can’t start. As Owen points out, he’s about the same height as Chris Paul. You could say the same about Isiah Thomas.

      Lawson is a classic PG with the handle, quickness, and passing ability, and also an efficient scorer/good shooter. He is a strong defender. Lawson can comfortably guard PGs, while Nate either has to guard SGs or play next to a primary ball-handler who can (although Denver is weak at SG and might have to play Billups and Lawson together more than they should). I don’t see what aspect of Lawson’s game would be exposed. Perhaps his inexperience this season, but he’ll be mostly caddying for Billups.

    19. Owen

      Dan – I also am not sure why Lee is an offensive liability. He scored 22 points on 16 possessions last night with just one turnover. That’s a ts% of 69%. He also has posted offensive ratings of 127, 123, and 118 in the last three years, with above average scoring volume. It’s not like he is a low usage garbage man. Right now he is one of the best offensive big men in the game. It’s him playing center on defense that is the issue.

      Honestly, I have nothing to add to what Ted Nelson said above, so I am just going to second everything…

    20. david

      Does anyone not think our best five are Duhon, Nate (or Chandler, I guess), Gallo, Lee and Darko? D’Antoni is building a Euro-looking team (although one that at this point probably wouldn’t win in EuroLeague, but that’s besides the point) with outside shooting bigs, the ability to spread the court, lots of high pick-and-rolls designed to free up shooters.

      The real tragedy of Hill is that I’m not sure he fits what we want to do with the team. In this offense, bigs have to be either the pick guy in the pick and roll in this offense — Lee — or a big who can shoot. Hill might some day be the second, but from what we’ve seen, he’s just a tall guy who can jump and maybe can play with the back to the basket. Blair, i think, will be a great pro, but isn’t a great fit for us either. Lawson, on the other hand, would have been very solid, particularly if he adds a bit of a jumpshot. We could have run a Lawson-Lee pick and roll again and again. I saw him play last night and he looked really, really good.

    21. ess-dog

      In mild defense of Walsh, I do remember reading that early on, he was a “Lawson fan” but the staff was more in favor of Holiday. Somehow, it came out Hill. I can understand maybe not going for Blair if you feel like you have Lee on board, but I just don’t see why we pass on Lawson. Or even Jennings or Holiday for that matter. Lawson probably makes more sense because of the numbers and you also want someone with a mature game in case you get Lebron or Wade. Aside from Darko, I think we should play Hill a lot now. Why not see what he can do in real games? My theory is that they are showcasing Jeffries, but they should probably do that as a forward and not as a center.

    22. Owen

      I don’t know about Darko, but our best players last year were definitely Duhon, Nate, Lee and Gallo (whose adjusted plus minus was apparently ridiculously good in a tiny sample size). Who the fifth player is I don’t much care.

      I am not sure why Hill’s “fit” is the issue rather than his ability to actually play basketball at an NBA level. I think the reason D’Antoni is down on him is because he now is realizing that he just isn’t a rotation level talent, no matter what system he is in.

      I don’t personally believe in “fit,” given how consistent player statistics are once you adjust for age, injury, playing time, and pace. But I do feel even more bitter about losing Lawson as it becomes clearer and clearer that he is the perfect “fit” for a run and gun transition team, something that was abundantly clear in college.

      I have been looking through the draft reports trying to understand why he fell. Apparently he was too short, didn’t play through injuries in college, didn’t have enough wingspan, and wasn’t judged to be all that athletic. Sort of crazy, you have to be athletic to post a 66% ts%, right?

    23. Brian Cronin

      D’Antoni at least made me laugh at the post-game, where he said something like, “If I only had 15 more timeouts, we could have made a run at it at the end.”

      Hilarious.

      Man, the Jeffries thing is such a pain. You can’t play him if you want to win, but you have to play him if you want any chance of trading him.

      And yeah, I love Kevin’s point about how the Knicks don’t have a typical outside shooting 2 (like Mobley) in a system that is practically built around having an outside shooting 2 (and 3 and 1 and 4 sometimes)!

    24. BigBlueAL

      The best lineup would probably be Duhon-Gallo-Harrington-Lee-Darko. Problem is obviously having Gallo and Harrington covering the 2′s and 3′s. Thats why Chandler would have to start for one of them I guess.

      Actually best lineup would probably be Nate at pg rather than Duhon. Problem is we have no idea what the hell is the best lineup :-(

    25. Kevin McElroy

      On the subject of lineups, I’m going to do my best to track some basic stats by lineup for the back-to-back this weekend and include it in my recap. Check back for that Sunday or Monday — its an interesting debate and it will be nice to have a couple numbers to go along with it (albeit in a tiny sample size).

    26. BigBlueAL

      Ted I was basically referring to what most of the reports about Lawson were prior to the draft which mainly talked about his small stature and injury proneness. Ive read a few reports on him saying that his best role in the NBA would be that of a 20-25 mpg backup pg who could change the pace of the game etc.

      One thing that I disagree with is the people who say he isnt athletic enough because Ive seen him dunk and I dont think finishing around the basket will be much of a problem for him.

      Actually Ive just contradicted myself basically I see. I admit I agree with you about Lawson, disregard whatever crap I said in my earlier post about him.

    27. latke

      Re: Hill

      There are two possibilities here: The first is that if there was no one they wanted left to draft, they decided to go with whoever they thought had the highest value. In this case — no Rubio, no Curry. Hill had been projected in the 5-9 range, so maybe they figured they’d take the pick and try to package it later as a means of moving a bad contract. This may be why they signed Toney Douglas before they signed Hill — they were looking to trade Hill’s rights.

      More likely in my opinion is that it was a D’Antoni decision, and Mike D’Antoni is confirmed as a poor general manager. He was awarded general manager responsibilities in March 2006 and here are some of his decisions:

      5 years and 45 million for Boris Diaw — turned out to be an awful decision. Didn’t seem that awful at the time.
      5 years and 21 million for Marcus Banks — awful!
      traded Rajon Rondo to Boston for a Cleveland draft pick — awful!! especially considering they later signed marcus banks
      Drafted Alando Tucker — he’s been useless, although he was the 29th pick.

    28. d-mar

      For the DeJuan Blair fan club, last night’s line vs. Chicago:

      13 min., 6 pts., 4 reb., 4 fouls

      I’m not going to judge him on this game, just like others shouldn’t go crazy based on the preseason and one reg.season game. The point is we really have to let some of this season play out before we start making our boom and bust statements on the 2009 draft.

    29. Ted Nelson

      d-mar,

      I don’t know why you bring that up as such a bad thing. He only took 3 shots and hit all 3 of them… and 6 points and 4 rebounds in 13 minutes is good: 16.6 points and 11.1 rebounds per 36.

      No one is saying that Blair is the next Tim Duncan, just that it’s inexcusable that he fell as far as he did. A lot of people are also upset about the Knicks choices, and it’s been that way since draft night. On that front, Blair still played 6.5 times more minutes than Hill and twice as many minutes as Douglas on a much better team. I was watching parts of the game (flipping from the baseball game on ads and then watching when it was done), and the entire Spurs team besides Duncan looked pretty bad on offense. If the Bulls were a better offense, or the Spurs a worse defense, this would not have been a 7 point game. The Spurs were almost never in it during the 4th.

      I was impressed with Blair’s defense in the stretches that I saw, although obviously 4 fouls in 13 minutes is terrible.

    30. Owen

      D-Mar – Not sure what is wrong with that line. He made all three of his shots and rebounded at a way above average rate. Overall, despite the fouls, that’s a more than decent performance, certainly a lot better than Mcdyess’ 0-4 in 16 minutes. Fouls are also the last thing I would worry about with a rookie power forward, since foul rates dependably fall over the first couple years of a player’s career.

      Lawson was a -10 last night for Denver though, so I can stop the small sample size hyperventilation about that for a a few days…

    31. d-mar

      Ted and Owen: Not saying it’s a horrible stat line, but if any other late 1st round, early 2nd rookie had put those numbers up, no one would even look twice. I have nothing against the guy, and was as surprised as everyone when he fell so far in the draft. Just think people are getting a little too excited this early in the season. And Owen thanks for the reality check on Lawson.

    32. Thomas B.

      Duhon, Chandler, Gallanari, Lee, Darko. Let Robinson and Harrington play “me first” on the second team with JJ and Landry I guess. Might as well cut Hughes and see if you can find help at the 2 or a another point.

    33. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      D-mar,

      We’re not judging Blair based solely on two regular season games. His immense presence in the postseason and his pre-draft projections from noted statisticians contribute to this sense of impending “aw, shit”-ness that will likely happen within the next few years. I do not condone an irrational level of praise bestowed upon a player for his performance in a small sample, but that’s not what we have here: all indicators point to Blair being a real-deal, big-time player, and we’re stuck with an athletic PF who relies on an inefficent mid-range game. I think there are valid reasons to be upset with the pick.

      If his knees explode on national television after making his first all-star game, then the critics will be silenced. But until Hill begins to play like Blair, it will be open season on the Walshtoni administration for what some of us believe to be an egregious lapse in judgment.

      Over the last five years, we’ve spent too much time waiting for risky picks and trades to pan out: Muffins Curry, Jerome James, Jamal, Steph, Jeffries, Q, Steve Francis, et al. So when these two players who project to be NBA-level players slip by us in the draft, one can’t help but feel wary about what’s to come. Did you see the way Lawson, at 6’0″, attacks the rim? Can you imagine how quickly the Knicks would play with him and Nate on the court? Imagine the match-up problems!

    34. Z

      I like the daily briefings on Blair and Lawson. May I suggest a new feature here at Knickerblogger: perhaps the “countdowns” feature could be replaced with a daily stock alert for Blair, Lawson, and others that slipped by in the draft.

      Or maybe a “Blair-O-Meter” with a dial that illustrates the frustration levels of KB posters. It can range from “We Were Wrong” of the left to “Maybe Next Time They’ll Listen To Us” on the right.

      There could even be a caption every morning, with blurbs like: “The good news today for Blair investors: he had 15 rebounds in just nine minutes last night. The bad news: as of this morning the reconstructive surgery he needs to fix his knees still hasn’t been invented.”

      Just a thought.

    35. phelpstimesfire

      Instead of us all going crazy over not taking Blair and Lawson this year in the draft (Way too early to tell) where is the outcry about passing on Eric Gordon AND Brook Lopez last year??? I know Danilo’s “PROJECTED” numbers are off the charts, but projections per 36, just like per game stats, are not sure tell signs of someone’s talent.

      Thus far in his career Galo has shown to be a wonderful shooter standing at 6’10 – but who already has back problems and rarely shows anything besides scoring in a REGULAR SEASON GAME. Hmmmm lets see, a big man who is a great scorer but cant rebound or play defense…. How do you say Eddy Curry in Italian?

      Its far too early to judge Danilo too, but going 7-14 with ALL 7 shots coming from behind the arc while only shooting 2 ft vs an undersized and under-impressive Miami Heat D is a little offsetting for me, especially considering the alternatives.

    36. phelpstimesfire

      Instead of us all going crazy over not taking Blair and Lawson this year in the draft (Way too early to tell) where is the outcry about passing on Eric Gordon AND Brook Lopez last year??? I know Danilo’s “PROJECTED” numbers are off the charts, but projections per 36, just like per game stats, are not sure tell signs of someone’s talent.

      Thus far in his career Galo has shown to be a wonderful shooter standing at 6’10 – but who already has back problems and rarely shows anything besides scoring in a REGULAR SEASON GAME. Hmmmm lets see, a big man who is a great scorer but cant rebound or play defense…. How do you say Eddy Curry in Italian?

      Its far too early to judge Danilo too, but going 7-14 with ALL 7 shots coming from behind the arc while only shooting 2 ft vs an undersized and under-impressive Miami Heat D is a little offsetting for me, especially considering the alternatives.

    37. Owen

      Phelps – That is a fair point about Lopez. Actually, many people on KB wanted Lopez. As I remember a lot of people were still pissed about passing on him until Gallo came in and shot so well last year.

      I will say, Lopez wasn’t exceptional in college and he was better in Fantasy last year than in real life. So as a stat guy I can’t kill Walsh for that. But his performance the other night was eye opening.

      It does kind of drive you crazy to think about the kind of team we could have right now if we had made a few semi-sensible decisions. How about Lawson, Robinson, Balkman/Ariza, Lee, Noah, and Lopez as a young core to experiment with…

    38. Nick C.

      I think they give up 120 ppg and win 35g, but with the upshot that with a 2G and a bench they are a get out of the first round team w/in 2 years thanks to the upside of Lopez and Lawson. BTW Ariza had 20+ they other night, not bad for someone a preview said would make Houston regret letting Ron Ron go, b/c he is too limited. Balkman is still DNP-CD.

    39. Z

      “It does kind of drive you crazy to think about the kind of team we could have right now if we had made a few semi-sensible decisions. How about Lawson, Robinson, Balkman/Ariza, Lee, Noah, and Lopez as a young core to experiment with…”

      How do we have Noah on the team under this scenario? By not trading Curry? In that case, we can have Noah AND Brandon Roy!

      As for Gallo, my non-stat infused gut tells me he’s going to be really, really good. No regrets there.

    40. Owen

      That’s right Z, Roy was in there too, was thinking that was true but couldn’t quite remember how…

      So, the Knicks alternative lineup:

      PG -Lawson
      SG – Roy,
      SF -Balkman/Ariza,
      PF – Lee,
      C – Lopez,

      Bench – Nate Robinson and Dejuan Blair

      I agree that Gallo could turn out great, I don’t think Lopez’ ceiling is higher than the Rooster, but we do need a center desperately…

    41. Nick C.

      Owen, your line-up #2 looks like a potential Conference finalist, which to me is pretty awesome, I mean that’s about what the Ewing/Oakley Knicks were.

    42. BballEngineer

      I’m glad to see someone say exactly what I’ve been thinking for a while now. My hats off to phelpstimefire! I’ve been lurking on this site for a while and I’ve read a lot of posts and comments about how good Gallo is, upside, potential,…etc. Descriptors thrown around like best player on the team, potential all-star,…etc. I have to ask this. Am I watching the same Gallo that you’ve been watching? I have to admit, I don’t see it. The Gallo I’ve seen can’t jump (as exhibited by the missed, all by himself put back dunk in the 1st quarter of the Miami game), can’t defend a chair, looks totally lost on most offensive sets that don’t include the pick and roll, and at 6’10″, can’t score below the free throw line. I’ve tried my best to be objective, thinking, if 10 people say he’s a star and I’m the only person who can’t see it, it must be something wrong with me. Seeing phelpstimefires post made me feel good, at least there are 2 of us who don’t see it. Be gentle with me guys, I’m a post virgin.

    43. Ted Nelson

      “Lawson was a -10 last night for Denver though, so I can stop the small sample size hyperventilation about that for a a few days…”

      Love that we had pretty much the same reaction on Blair.
      Lawson looked pretty good. On the +/1: he subbed in for Billups twice and Melo another time while playing a lot with Afflalo (who was somehow +7 but did virtually nothing and, completely off topic and irrelevant, is nowhere near the 6-5 he’s listed at, never noticed this at UCLA or Detroit so maybe I’m seeing things but he didn’t look any taller than Billups) and also with Birdman who wasn’t very effective and also in 3 guard line-ups that looked pretty silly considering the Blazers length and athleticism.
      Lawson was quick with the ball in his hands, stripped Oden and picked off a pass, hit jumpers and a lay-up, and missed a gimme lay-up that he’s going to put in most nights. Karl had enough confidence to leave him in over 1/2 the fourth quarter, although he was out when Denver (basically Carmelo) made its run.

      “but if any other late 1st round, early 2nd rookie had put those numbers up, no one would even look twice.”

      It’s one game, but if you really want to go there: how many rookies have put up a comparable line so far in their first or second games?

      “So when these two players who project to be NBA-level players slip by us in the draft, one can’t help but feel wary about what’s to come.”

      Good point, THCJ. A big thing about teams (not just the Knicks, mind you) passing on Blair/Lawson… statistically good bets… in the 2009 draft is that this was a draft that was universally condemned (by pretty much everyone but me) as terribly weak. Every GM was saying leading up to the draft things like: “this is the kind of draft where you just look to get a supporting/role player.” Yet somehow these two slip because they don’t have tremendously high ceilings. Teams were looking for supporting players, yet they passed on two guys who clearly fit the bill… it blows my mind.

    44. Ted Nelson

      “where is the outcry about passing on Eric Gordon AND Brook Lopez last year??? I know Danilo’s “PROJECTED” numbers are off the charts, but projections per 36, just like per game stats, are not sure tell signs of someone’s talent.”

      I’m not a Gordon fan, so I have no problem passing on him. Quite glad they did, actually.
      I like Lopez, but this is where the great and mythical D’Antoni system hurts the Knicks: they have to base all of their personnel decisions around who will “fit” in the running offense. Lopez dropped in the draft due to questions about his athleticism, so he was out in their minds. They also loved Danilo, I guess, and I’m glad they did. Interestingly, passing on Lopez might have played into the Walshtoni decision not to “let it happen again” by passing on Hill…
      I don’t understand what you mean by Danilo’s “PROJECTED” numbers… The guy has shot the lights out since he got into the NBA. No one is projecting that he will come out the first game of the season and hit 7 of 13 (54%) 3-pointers… it already happened.

      “already has back problems”

      As far as I know there was no way to predict this before the draft, and it was a result of an unforeseeable collision with a 400 pound man. Eric Gordon could just as easily have been pummeled by Tractor Trailer in Summer League had the Knicks selected him.

      “going 7-14 with ALL 7 shots coming from behind the arc while only shooting 2 ft vs an undersized and under-impressive Miami Heat D is a little offsetting for me”

      Are you really going to rip a guy who put up 22 pts on 14 shots???
      Your top alternatives include Eric Gordon and you’re upset??? I can name a dozen players drafted after Danilo that I would rather have on my team right now than Eric Gordon.

    45. Z

      “That’s right Z, Roy was in there too, was thinking that was true but couldn’t quite remember how…”

      Owen– how quickly we repress bad memories! In an alternate universe where Isiah was never allowed to make the Curry trade the Knicks could have drafted Roy with the #2 pick in 2006 (it was used by the Bulls on Aldridge in this universe) and drafted Noah at his regular place in 2007.

      So the lineup could be:

      PG: Lawson
      SG: Roy
      C: Noah
      PF: Lee
      SF: Gallo.

      Forget Lopez. Keep Gallo. (There’d be no Balkman too, in this Universe (because we wouldn’t have done the Jalen Rose trade to replace the lost pick). (No Chandler too, since we’d have kept the Noah pick)).

      Not sure if back in 2006 stat-heads were singing the praises of Roy coming out of college the way they were Lawson and Blair. Was there a strong indication he’d be the best player in that draft? If not, we can’t really include him in this alternate-universe exercise, I guess, but knowing that we could have had Roy hurts me more than knowing we could have had Lawson of Blair…

    46. phelpstimesfire

      Ted -

      If you dont see anything wrong with a 6’10 player who only shoots three pointers while being defended by smaller players, all the while putting up a great stat line such as 0 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 FTA and 0 blocks & steals then I obviously need whatever glasses you have to watch Knicks games with.

      Now, you did hit the main problem on the head, Walsh & Dantoni’s idea of finding players who FIT their “system”.

      Imagine if we took Lopez or even a chance on Randolph last year. We then wouldn’t have needed to get “David Lee insurance” this year with the selection of Jordan Hill. If we had Lopez along side of David we could have taken a chance on picking Lawson with our first pick, then Blair at the end of the round instead of Douglas.

      At this point its all wishful thinking, I know, but I dont know what you guys have actually seen on the floor ON A CONSISTENT BASIS that makes you LOVE Gallo.

      Your point about Gordon is a fair one, but looking at their opening night performances and considering the competiton, I find it hard to believe that Gallo is the better choice. Ofcourse I would prefer a 6’10 player over a 6’5-6’6 one, but Gordon went to the ft line more, got more assts, more steals and even more BLOCKS than Gallo did while being defended by Kobe and Artest!!!!!!

      I hope you all are right, but I have yet to see Gallo do anything with his vast skill set other than shoot threes. He is a tremendous shooter, but with the #8 selection Im sure you can find a much better piece than a one dimensional player who has no desire to drive or defend to build your team around.

      SO to answer your question, YES, I am really ripping a guy who scored 22 pts vs a bad Heat defense. Especially when we could have got a guy (Lopez) who got 5 more blocks, 1 more steal, 9 more rebounds, 4 more assists than Gallo… Oh and btw he scored 27 pts, 5 more than the Rooster.

    47. Kevin McElroy

      They also could have passed on Gallo for Joe Alexander/Jerryd Bayless (both were in consideration — I don’t remember Lopez’s name coming up as much as either of those). This year, I had the impression that if they passed on Hill it was going to be for Jennings or Holliday. Can’t always compare draft picks against the guy after them who turned out best, but rather the other guy on the board that the team seemed most inclined to take.

    48. Owen

      Z – With the second pick I would have taken Ty Thomas also. He actually had the best college numbers of any major conference player in the draft (although Millsap’s were better in absolute terms). By Win Score, Roy was best shooting guard in the draft, and the sixth best player available, but I don’t see anyway we would have ended up with him if I were in charge. It was a huge mistake to swap Roy for Foye as Minnesota did based on their college numbers, that much is clear…

    49. sj12

      Whatever we COULD have done in the draft, we got gallo, douglas, and hill and we can’t go back. It’s only been one game into the season, and if gallo can keep on putting up 20pts a game, then maybe it wasn’t such a bad selection after all. And I still think that Douglas is going to be surprisingly good. I know it was all in garbage time but he had a pretty nice looking and-one play at the end of the Heat game thursday night. Whatever happens, we’re stuck with the lineup we have, I don’t really see any point speculating what we could have.

    50. Ted Nelson

      “If you dont see anything wrong with a 6?10 player who only shoots three pointers while being defended by smaller players, all the while putting up a great stat line such as 0 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 FTA and 0 blocks & steals then I obviously need whatever glasses you have to watch Knicks games with.”

      Was there something wrong with Peja in his prime? For as bad as his defensive reputation was/is, Peja managed to play big minutes on some of the best defensive teams in that era. No one on the Knicks defends, and I think you’re stigmatizing Danilo’s defense a little because he’s European. In a few years I don’t see why he can’t play big minutes on a good/great defensive team like other European wings have: Kukoc, Peja, Hedo.
      If Danilo can be equivalent caliber spot up shooting wing to Peja I have no problem taking him 6th. In that case it won’t be him that will be the Knicks problem but not having guys the caliber of Webber, Divac, Christie, Bibby, Jackson, etc. (Unless, hopefully, they have guys that caliber or better.) If Danilo is just a one-dimensional spot up shooter who can at least hold his own on D then he could be a very valuable player if the Knicks ever field a decent team… Imagine LeBron and/or Wade kicking it out to Danilo next season…

      I do not, however, think that this is all we’re going to see out of Danilo on his career. In Europe his game was not predicated on spot up shooting. He was a slasher with a solid but unspectacular outside shot. I am thrilled that his shot has been what it’s been in the NBA, because I was skeptical about his jumper coming into the draft. He wasn’t a great point-forward creator type in Italy either. However he was the featured scorer of a Euroleague team at a very young age, so given his ball-handling and passing abilities you have to figure he has at least Hedo caliber point-forward potential (a very dangerous word, I know). We’ve also seen Danilo take players into the post previously and look good there. I think the NBA game is too fast for him right now, but that doesn’t mean he won’t catch up. Even European veterans who come over tend to get a lot better after one year in the league.
      Right now Danilo is playing a limited role, spotting up for jumpers. He’s not being asked to do anything more than that, so it would be unfair to criticize him for, say, not being a low-post center like Brook Lopez. If you have a problem with a 6-10 player taking 13 threes, then blame D’Antoni. However, what are the chances that he scores more than 22 points if he shoots more 2 pters???

      As you can see, I am of the opinion that Danilo is a wing. At this point I have no doubt he is. Maybe he matures into a 4, but I think playing him at the 4 at this point is another product of D’Antoni shoving square pegs into round holes to try to make his system work. Assuming that anyone can do what Shawn Marion did (I made the same mistake when D’Antoni first arrived, and Jon Abbey pointed out just how unique Marion’s skill set was: rebounding, defense, passable outside shooting, and a strong finisher at the rim.) Danilo doesn’t rebound well for a big and will be lost most nights in the paint defensively. He was purely a perimeter player at the highest levels he reached in Europe. It’s going to be a big adjustment that may or may not work.

      “YES, I am really ripping a guy who scored 22 pts vs a bad Heat defense. Especially when we could have got a guy (Lopez) who got 5 more blocks, 1 more steal, 9 more rebounds, 4 more assists than Gallo… Oh and btw he scored 27 pts, 5 more than the Rooster.”

      Last season the Heat had the 11th best defense in the NBA, vs. the 20th best offense… (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2009.html) They’ve brought back a pretty similar team, so I don’t know why you’d call it a bad defense. The Lakers only had the 6th best defense, so better than the Heat but not incredibly better.

      It’s only one game and you can’t just compare a SF to a C. A C should block more shots and get more rebounds than a SF. 6 rebounds in 28 min is a solid showing for a SF (7.7 per 36 minutes and in this case a rebound rate of 12.5), especially one that was camped out on the perimeter offensively all game.
      Anyway I don’t have a problem with complaining about passing on Lopez, as I think I made pretty clear in my last post. I would say that it’s only one player. If only one better player ends up being taken behind your guy then you probably did pretty well.
      In the Hill and even Douglas cases there were a whole bunch of guys I would have rather seen Walsh take, and I’m not even one of the harsher critics of his draft. (My issue is more with SO MANY teams passing on Lawson and Blair than with Walsh individually. Although I wasn’t thrilled with his draft, I am willing to take a wait-and-see approach. Which is good, since I have no power to do anything but wait-and-see.)

      “I dont know what you guys have actually seen on the floor ON A CONSISTENT BASIS that makes you LOVE Gallo. ”

      Since you’re new to the board, as far as I know, I don’t know if you are up on advanced stats. If so than I don’t know how you can not be high on Danilo at this point. Certainly there are a lot of question marks remaining, but the scoring numbers to date speak for themselves: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gallida01.html

      “Your point about Gordon is a fair one, but looking at their opening night performances and considering the competiton, I find it hard to believe that Gallo is the better choice. Ofcourse I would prefer a 6?10 player over a 6?5-6?6 one, but Gordon went to the ft line more, got more assts, more steals and even more BLOCKS than Gallo did while being defended by Kobe and Artest!!!!!!”

      It’s one game. I’m sure that lesser players than Gordon will have much better games against the Lakers this season, and on the other hand I’m sure that Gordon will have much worse nights against much worse teams.
      Again, Danilo did what was asked of him and he did it well. I don’t know what more you can ask.
      Gordon is 6’2″ w/out shoes/ 6’3.5″ with shoes (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/?page=&year=2008&sort2=DESC&draft=0&pos=0&sort=), not 6-5, 6-6… I don’t know if it’s wise to say that you’d rather have a 6-10 guy then a 6-5, 6-6 guy anyway. Think about some of the great wings, take Jordan. Would you really rather take many 6-10 guys over them?
      Gordon has a completely different role from Danilo’s: he’s a high scoring guard who can hit from inside and out, he’s going to score points and he’s going to get to the line. Against the Lakers he took more possessions to score less points than Danilo did against the Heat (when you factor in the possessions used on FTs). To me, he’s pretty reminiscent of other talented guards who shoot too much and score inefficiently (say, Jamal Crawford). He’s probably at least as much of a defensive liability at the 2 as Danilo is at the 3/4. I like him, but I would say he’s probably a guy who is ideally your third guard. In reality he might be LAC’s leading scorer this season and will probably get $10mm plus per year on his second contract. That’s a big reason I don’t like him.

    51. Ted Nelson

      I am being too harsh on Gordon. He did score very efficiently last season, I just don’t love him as your leading scorer making $10+ mill per in a few years.

      Kevin,

      That’s a good point. At the same time, in evaluating the regime you can ask why they were more inclined to take crappy players than good ones. As a fan it’s nice to know that your team is barely missing, rather than wholly inept. As Knicks fans all we’ve seen for a decade is wholly inept, so it’s easy to be cynical.

      There’s also a lot of misdirection that goes on leading up to the draft, and Walsh seems pretty slick at this. For example, Walsh might have laughed about Joe Alexander privately but floated rumors about his interest to pump up his stock and in a relative way deflate the stock of guys he was actually considering. (A real example: Rick Pitino said there was no way he would consider drafting his former player Ron Mercer… until he did just that at #6.) Or maybe Walsh really did love Alexander… My point is that as a fan it’s hard to speculate on what the team’s draft board actually looked like.

      After this draft Walsh said Tyreke Evans will be the 2nd best player in the whole draft. Since he had little at stake when he said that (again, after the draft), I wonder if that’s his real opinion.

      sj12,

      We can’t make the decisions ourselves, so all we can do is speculate.

    52. phelpstimesfire

      “Was there something wrong with Peja in his prime?”

      Yes, If you remember Peja never came through for the Kings in those big playoff series especially vs the Lakers. Also Peja relied heavily on great passers around him ie Webber, Vlade and Bibby. You pinpointed my biggest fear about Gallo, that he is more Peja than say Hedo or Dirk.

      “I think you’re stigmatizing Danilo’s defense a little because he’s European.”

      Absolutely not. I love AK47 I believe he is a tremendous defender and all around player, he is European. As too is Andris Biedrins. Not completely fair I know, but the notion that Im “stigmatizing” is without merit. I hope he turns out to become a great player, I just havent seen it on the NBA level yet.

      “Imagine LeBron and/or Wade kicking it out to Danilo next season… ”

      I think we all know why LeBron and Wade’s teams as built, can never truly succeed. Not because a lack of spot up shooters, see Cleveland’s last year. But because of defense and players who can create for themselves and others. IF Gallo turns out (And I truly hope he does) like Dirk or even Hedo then yes it works, but if he is just this generation’s Peja who cant attack the basket or create off the dribble i question the selection at 6. Why not trade down??

      “In Europe his game was not predicated on spot up shooting. He was a slasher with a solid but unspectacular outside shot”

      I know in Europe he was a beast, but unfortunately for us the NBA isnt played in Europe. Again if you were to look back at my previous posts i ask what he has done on a NBA court.

      “He wasn’t a great point-forward creator type in Italy either”

      With this one quote you summed up my greatest fear in Danilo. If he couldn’t create in Italy what makes any of us think he can do so here? Now if we are going under the pretence that he is JUST a spot up shooter than ok, but Ive been told from nearly every “EXPERT” that he has the ability to become a Hedo or even more. On this very site someone started to look at Dirk’s second year numbers for comparison … maybe overshooting on that one huh?

      “Right now Danilo is playing a limited role, spotting up for jumpers. He’s not being asked to do anything more than that”

      Why would a #6 overall pick, who the coach admitedly loves not be asked to do more on a TERRIBLE team? Does that make sense to anyone? You think the Blazers went into a season not wanting to ask Brandon Roy for alot? Didnt think so either.

      “However, what are the chances that he scores more than 22 points if he shoots more 2 pters???”

      Normally I would say they are great, except the fact that he missed his lone 2 point shot vs Miami.

      “Since you’re new to the board, as far as I know, I don’t know if you are up on advanced stats. If so than I don’t know how you can not be high on Danilo at this point. Certainly there are a lot of question marks remaining, but the scoring numbers to date speak for themselves: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gallida01.html

      Now admittedly Im not nearly as knowledgeable as you or others on this site with advanced stats, but I think in certain circumstances they, just like per game stats can be misleading. I will try to learn more about the advanced stats and im sure being on this site will help, but going back to my very first post I asked what has he done in reality not through projection.

      “Think about some of the great wings, take Jordan. Would you really rather take many 6-10 guys over them?”

      I laughed when I saw this. How can I win an agruement when you throw out JORDAN? Lets be real. However, Im sure if you were to look at all the great players of all time, the lists of dominant championship caliber players who are 6’10 and over is a much stronger list than the under. Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan, Wilt, Russell, Kareem ect.

      Im not trying to be a dick, and I dont want to get off on the wrong foot. You obviously love the Knicks like I do. I just want to make sure I see what you all do when it comes to Gallo. Ive been reading this site for sometime now and I hear nothing but praise for Gallo. Yet he hasnt done anything yet. In the 14 games last year he looked good, but not great. Plus he already has injury problems. Call it a fluke if you want, but it still remains. I hope for all of our sakes you guys are right, Im just waiting on the proof. The concrete type, not of the projected variety. Im done though on the posts about Gallo I hope he does it again vs Charlotte.

      Go Knicks!

    53. Z

      “In the 14 games last year he looked good, but not great…Im just waiting on the proof. The concrete type, not of the projected variety.”

      Phelps…

      Keep in mind that Gallinari is still very, very young. If you were expecting him to look “great” as a 20 year old (with or without injury) then you are either extremely impatient or hopelessly unrealistic. The biggest disappointment of his rookie year was the minutes played. When he played, he played very well.

      I’m actually not sure what you are seeing when you see a bust. He has the “bust” label on him because Marc Berman, who married himself to Stephon Marbury as a news source, didn’t like the way Marbury was exiled by Walsh and D’Antoni and went out of his way to try to make the Gallinari pick look bad. So if you read Berman and nothing else, you’d think Gallinari was destined to be a failure.

      If you read more objective sources, or actually watched the (few) games Gallo played last year, it was apparent there was a lot to be excited about, especially considering his young age.

    54. Ted Nelson

      Peja had 3 straight seasons where he put in over 20 pts/36 on a TS% above .590… He was/is a very good spot-up shooter. I didn’t mean is there something wrong with him compared to Michael Jordan, but was he a valuable member of a good team… The kind of player that the Knicks could use.

      You can talk about Peja’s perceived shortcomings in the playoffs (he had some pitiful years and some excellent years in the playoffs), but the Knicks are nowhere near the playoffs. They have to worry about building a team that can actually sniff the playoffs before worrying about a team that can get through the playoffs. The Kings won 55 games 4 seasons in a row, which is something the Knicks should be aspiring to do.

      “You pinpointed my biggest fear about Gallo, that he is more Peja than say Hedo or Dirk.”

      Hedo isn’t that good. Definitely overrated right now. Peja hasn’t aged well, but on his career he’s been at least as good as Hedo: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=stojape01&y1=2010&p2=turkohe01&y2=2010

      I do think that Danilo has the Hedo level passing ability. If you look at Hedo’s assist numbers they started out pretty weak and have improved throughout his career. That’s the general trend with non-PG playmakers.

      “I know in Europe he was a beast, but unfortunately for us the NBA isnt played in Europe.”

      One thing I’ve been saying since the Knicks drafted Danilo is that I just can’t think of a European player who was as good as Danilo as young as Danilo who hasn’t gone on to NBA success. Most of the big busts just weren’t any good in Europe either. I lived in Spain for 5 years, so I follow ACB (Spanish league) and Euroleague a bit.

      “If he couldn’t create in Italy what makes any of us think he can do so here?”

      1. He was 18, 19 and asked to shoulder the load of his Euroleague team’s offense. He wasn’t asked to create for others, he was asked to score. A 19 year old Without looking at them, I don’t think his assist numbers were at all bad for a wing, just didn’t stand out.
      2. There is a general trend where non-PG playmakers have higher assist rates as their careers progress.

      “Why would a #6 overall pick, who the coach admitedly loves not be asked to do more on a TERRIBLE team?… You think the Blazers went into a season not wanting to ask Brandon Roy for alot?”

      Because he’s 21 and coming off back surgery, maybe. He lies on his back when not on the court this season, a good indicator his back is hurting.

      Roy was 22 his rookie season, and is the exception at #6 not the rule:
      99–Wally Szczerbiak
      00–DerMarr Johnson
      01–Shane Battier
      02–Dajuan Wagner
      03–Chris Kaman
      04–Josh Childress
      05–Martell Webster
      06–Roy
      07–Yi Jianlian
      08–Danilo

      Roy is far and away the best player on the list to date. There’s not one other player drafted #6 since 1999 who you can ask to shoulder an NBA offense, let alone as a 2nd year guy coming off back surgery.

      “he missed his lone 2 point shot vs Miami.”

      It was one shot. Can you really draw any conclusions from that?

      “but going back to my very first post I asked what has he done in reality not through projection.”

      Advanced stats aren’t projections. They are reality. The numbers themselves can’t be misleading as far as reflecting what happened, but can be when used for projections. A person’s (myself included) interpretation of them can also be misleading (say Hollinger’s PER).

      “I just want to make sure I see what you all do when it comes to Gallo.”

      I don’t think anyone sees him as great yet, but promising. He’s produced in the (limited) chances he’s had in NY plus in Italy, which in my mind makes him more promising than, say, Wilson Chandler who also has plenty of potential but has been consistently subpar for two seasons.
      When you look at player statistics (the right ones, the one I call advanced stats: per minute and rate/percentage stats).

    Comments are closed.