Comments on: Knicks 2013 Preview: The Ex-Knicks

By: knicknyk

knicknyk — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 13:38:13 +0000

Z-man: I got that figure from someone on this site (ephus?) It’s not all luxury tax, but salary +luxury tax combined over 3 years.

Yes I know it is salary + luxury tax. But once again there was a lot of misinformation going on that it is hard for me to really tell what is the truth. I have heard multiple figures & seen no math to back those figures up. I don't think anybody knows what the total pay out is. But I get where you are coming from.

By: Z-man

Z-man — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 13:17:17 +0000

I got that figure from someone on this site (ephus?) It’s not all luxury tax, but salary +luxury tax combined over 3 years.

By: knicknyk

knicknyk — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 12:51:24 +0000

I have heard so many different total payout figures that I don’t believe it anymore. There has been so much misinformation it is madness. I have heard 30 million in luxury tax + his 15 million salary. I have heard 40 million in luxury tax and now you are saying 70+ million. I don’t think anybody knows how to calculate luxury tax. It takes multiple contracts to get a team to the point that they pay the tax rate not just one. So much misinformation it is crazy.

By: Z-man

Z-man — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 09:46:44 +0000

That figure comes from the total payout including luxury tax. The tax rate goes up to like 2-3 times the over the cap figure. Some have argued that if Lin was not worth it, he could be traded as an expiring or “stretched” to reduce the cap hit so the risk of eating that money without getting something of value in return was minimal.

By: knicknyk

knicknyk — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 03:47:49 +0000

Where did you get this 70 million plus figure from? There was so much misinformation going on out there. Holy smokes.

By: Z-man

Z-man — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 23:57:13 +0000

It’s still potentially a $70+ million dollar gamble on a guy whose floor is marginal rotation player and who is coming off a knee injury of unknown severity.

By: The Honorable Cock Jowles

The Honorable Cock Jowles — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 23:35:32 +0000

But he’s young and has potential for growth. Felton is not. And we’re so capped out it doesn’t matter how much he makes.

By: Z-man

Z-man — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 23:22:47 +0000

OK, So:
-We agree
-We agree
-Agree, but depth at the position, cost, and agreeing that the player is “good” are important considerations.
-This is a HUGE maybe, and there is no choice but to cherry pick. Lin has 26 NBA starts in the middle of a fucked-up season, a handful of garbage time minutes, a 4-year career at a nothing college, and a very short list of summer league and D-league highlights. In analyzing this cherry pick, the only things that are consistent are high assist rate, high turnover rate and mediocre 3-pt shooting. Just about everything else was all over the map.
-Agree, but the sample is vs. the two guys we are most concerned about. Should probably mention Deron 2.0 in this point as well.
-Right, interpersonal dynamics have no place in professional sports or influence on a team’s success. Amare was signed before they got there, and has slightly more effective burn under his belt.
-as i guess is everyone who doesn’t believe that Lin is as good as you think he is.
-The stats say over this time period that he is average, so not good is true, I guess.
-he was until D’Antoni burned him out by playing him 40+mpg in an uptempo system (i.e. rode him like Secretariat). He also had a synergy with Amare.
-It wasn’t just JR and Melo. Kidd was very lukewarm in talking about Lin when he was signed. Chandler was less than kind in a recdent appraisal. I doubt that they are shills for Dolan, but, whatever.
-see above
-again, based on your opinion, which is based on a very flimsy and inconsistent set of data and ignores any red flags
-This was more of a long-term assertion for those that argue that Lin was a young guy to build a future around, but we still haven’t come close to establishing that Lin is better than Felton. Or Kidd. Or Prigioni. Or Dragic. Or Lowry. or any other journeyman PG with glaring weaknesses. Not to mention that Felton comes at 1/4 the price.

By: The Honorable Cock Jowles

The Honorable Cock Jowles — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 22:08:56 +0000

Z-man:
Lin’s durability is generally a concern
Lin’s knee is a specific concern
Lin does not mesh well with current team
Lin’s productivity is better represented by his last 13 starts than by his first 13
Lin was dominated by Mario Chalmers and Rondo pre-knee injury
Lin’s presence would be a huge distraction a la Tebow if he didn’t play well and had to be benched
Lin’s contract would create locker room issues
Woodson doesn’t believe in Lin’s ability
Felton has played adequately well for 2.5 of the last 3 years
Felton had a good P&R relationship with Amare last time around
Felton was endorsed by other players over Lin
Felton is an outlier and will play better than his career stats
Kidd will play more when it matters most, especially if Felton faulters
Lin-level PGs are easy to find/replace

-Yes.
-Yes.
-Having a good point guard is never bad for a team.
-Maybe. But let’s not cherry pick.
-Small sample size. Rondo is maybe a top 3 point guard.
-Any athlete can be a distraction in NYC. Who cares?
-Whoever disagrees with Lin’s contract can eat a bowl of fuckall for all I care. They’re paid to play, not to complain about their contracts. Why don’t they bitch about Amar’e's shitty contract?
-Woodson would be a moron, then.
-Felton is not good.
-Felton was not good as a Knick.
-Jealousy at best, racism at worst. The front office should deal with that head-on. Plus, I don’t care who Carmelo Anthony thinks is the best player at any given position. The numbers are more accurate than their eyetest.
-Felton is not good.
-It doesn’t matter if Kidd plays more. Lin should be the other PG.
-Untrue. We have Felton, who is not good, in his place. Patently false.

By: Z-man

Z-man — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 17:15:58 +0000

The Honorable Cock Jowles: But even from a production-versus-production angle (re: Lin vs. Kidd/Felton), you’re still taking a huge risk on the current PGs. With Lin, there’s a risk that his knee deteriorates or his play-style gets “figured out” (since, you know, he relies on “smarts” not “athletic talent”) and he becomes an unproductive player. But signing Felton and Kidd don’t carry their own reservations? Felton has never been a good PG (ever) and Kidd is really old and due to drop off an efficiency cliff. Lin is young and even if he continued last year’s production numbers, he’d be a solid improvement over Felton, who, again, is not a good PG. Kidd is a reserve guard either way and thus won’t have a huge impact on team wins, so why privilege the Felton/Kidd risk over the Lin risk?

Here are some hyothetical counterarguments:
Lin’s durability is generally a concern
Lin’s knee is a specific concern
Lin does not mesh well with current team
Lin’s productivity is better represented by his last 13 starts than by his first 13
Lin was dominated by Mario Chalmers and Rondo pre-knee injury
Lin’s presence would be a huge distraction a la Tebow if he didn’t play well and had to be benched
Lin’s contract would create locker room issues
Woodson doesn’t believe in Lin’s ability
Felton has played adequately well for 2.5 of the last 3 years
Felton had a good P&R relationship with Amare last time around
Felton was endorsed by other players over Lin
Felton is an outlier and will play better than his career stats
Kidd will play more when it matters most, especially if Felton faulters
Lin-level PGs are easy to find/replace

PS: it wasn’t Lin vs. Kidd/Felton, it was either
Lin/Kidd/Prigioni vs. Felton/Kidd/Prigioni
or
Lin/Kidd/Felton/Prigioni vs. Felton/Kidd/Prigioni Kid and Prigs had been signed already.