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Friday, October 31, 2014

Knicks 2013 Preview: Guard Survey

So we, the good writers at KnickerBlogger, had a little pow-wow on various aspects of the upcoming 2013 Knicks season. Over the next few days, actually pretty much up until the season starts, KnickerBlogger will publish these results, as well as a few pertinent questions that loom over the boys in chang and laahm in ’13.

1. Raymond Felton 15 PER (Over/Under)
Over 55%

Felton’s career PER is 14.4, which would make this a statistical tossed coin, especially if you consider a normal career path would be peaking at around the age of 28. Hence one would expect the Knicks PG to have a PER over his career average, since that number is gotten by taking equal parts of his early career. Except for one thing.

Last year in Portland, Felton’s PER dropped to a 13.4, which was a career low. In fact if you look at his PER in comparison to his effective shooting percentage, he’s only managed an above average PER in the seasons where he’s shot above 46% eFG%. That is Felton’s total production can loosely be based on his shooting percentage from the field. Throw in the off-season craziness at the point guard position (aka Jeremy Lin) and the media could turn against Felton pretty quickly. Odds on “Not Everyone Loves Felton” being a newspaper article title at some point in the season has to be 30%. Oh it was already done this summer? Yikes!

Yours truly bucked the trend and took the under.

2. Iman Shumpert 41 games played (Over/Under)
Over 67%

If Shumpert comes back on January 1st, that would mean he missed 30 games, which would still give him a 12 game cushion. In January, the Knicks average a game every 2.3 days, so the latest Shump-Shump could come back & make the over is the 27th, but that would mean he’d need to stay healthy down the stretch. Shumpert has said he’d be back December/January, so he should make this an easy over.

Except (there’s that word again) the Knicks tend to under-report the injuries of their players. Last year everyone thought that Lin’s knee was just “a little sore” and and the gash Mike Bibby’s neck was just “a cooking accident.” But Lin required surgery, and Bibby’s neck was the result of a walker (“see Robert, there’s still room for zombie jokes!”)

Despite my better judgement, I’m going with the over. Mostly because I have two wee-ones running head-on into every solid substance in the neighborhood and recover in the time it takes most people to say “ow.” In other words, kids heal quickly. And now that I’m approaching another milestone in decades, from my perspective Shumpert’s 22 years of age might as well be a toddler in pullups.

3. Player with most games played at SG. (Brewer, Kidd, Shumpert, White, J.R. Smith, Other)
Brewer 67%
Shumpert 22%
Smith 11%

It’s hard to reconcile this with the above, no? One would expect the Knicks to go full defense this year (did you see who they picked up this off season?) and Shumpert would be the best mugger of the bunch.

Except we mostly took Brewer. Is it because he’s a better rebounder? Is it because he commits half the number of turnovers? A third less fouls? Or is it because he’s 5 years the senior, and the Knicks combed geriatric wards for players this summer?

I went with Brewer, but I’m kinda surprised that no one went with the darkhorses White or Kidd. Had I joined a Crossfit gym, White would have been my choice.

Thomas B. says:

The shooting guard rotation could very well be run the way small forward was manned under Larry Brown when the starter was based on things like: “Hey, which one of you guys grew up near here?” Or, “You’re starting tonight, Qyntel. Happy Birthday.”

Which Question Did The KnickerBloggers Get Wrong?

  • Felton will be under 15 PER (36%, 50 Votes)
  • Brewer isn't going to start most at SG (25%, 34 Votes)
  • None. You guys are truly brilliant. (22%, 30 Votes)
  • Shumpert won't play 41 games (17%, 23 Votes)

Total Voters: 137

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89 comments on “Knicks 2013 Preview: Guard Survey

  1. Jafa

    Easiest multiple choice for me. Felton in a landslide.

    With Shumpert, we just talking about playing 41 games, so even if he isn’t 100% when he comes back, he could play limited minutes in some game and quickly eclipse 41 games (plus, I think we may be praying to God that he plays that much after we can stand any more of Brewers 3PT bricks or JR’s knucklheaded plays).

    It very reasonable to see Brewer starting at SG most of our games as Woodson is determined to bring JR off the bench. As for White, I don’t think Woodson is as open-minded as MDA in terms of starting an unproven player (remember 2nd round pick Fields starting at SG as a rookie?) over a proven one.

  2. Frank O.

    So far, I have been underwhelmed with Felton’s play in the preseason. Fit or not, his head has always been his biggest issue. Seems unchanged. He’s also not going to do great with quick guards, and given our bench, that could be an issue. Brewer could help, as will Shump when he gets back.
    Conversely, Prigioni has been more than I expected. Smart, sharp offensively. He’s slow on D. That could become an issue. Kidd seems terribly slow out there.
    Chandler and Camby will be very busy this year defending the paint from guard penetration.

  3. d-mar

    Frank O.:
    So far, I have been underwhelmed with Felton’s play in the preseason. Fit or not, his head has always been his biggest issue. Seems unchanged. He’s also not going to do great with quick guards, and given our bench, that could be an issue. Brewer could help, as will Shump when he gets back.
    Conversely, Prigioni has been more than I expected. Smart, sharp offensively. He’s slow on D. That could become an issue. Kidd seems terribly slow out there.
    Chandler and Camby will be very busy this year defending the paint from guard penetration.

    Agree mostly, I do worry about his decision making, and he’s just an average jump shooter. But the guard penetration thing – it’s mostly impossible to stop the better and quicker PG’s (Rondo, Paul, Rose etc.) from getting into the paint. With the no hand check rules and the number of screens being set at the top of the key, it’s just really difficult to stop a quick PG off the dribble. So I wouldn’t go too crazy on Felton in that regard.

  4. JK47

    The numbers I’m interested in with regards to Felton are FGA/36 and USG%. In his last stint as a Knick he averaged 13.9 FGA/36, which is way too high considering his efficiency. He was 2nd on the team to Amar’e in FGA/36 and USG%. I’d like to see him play more the way he played in Denver, where his USG% and FGA/36 numbers were at career lows.

  5. Brian Cronin

    Oh yeah, I hated how much he shot during his last stint with the Knicks. I am not too worried about that now, though, as he can’t possibly think it’s okay to shoot that much now.

  6. Frank O.

    JK47:
    The numbers I’m interested in with regards to Felton are FGA/36 and USG%.In his last stint as a Knick he averaged 13.9 FGA/36, which is way too high considering his efficiency.He was 2nd on the team to Amar’e in FGA/36 and USG%.I’d like to see him play more the way he played in Denver, where his USG% and FGA/36 numbers were at career lows.

    His shots also were a bit distorted by pace, but he should never be a No. 3 option. His approach should be embarrassment about taking more than nine shots per game. He needs to shoot some to make the PNR work, but mostly he needs to hit the roll.

  7. JK47

    This is Felton’s 8th NBA season. He’s had a 20+ USG% every season of his career except one and has taken more than 12 FGA/36 every year of his career except one. Maybe he turns into a Derek Fisher-style low usage PG in his 8th NBA season, but I’ll bet Felton ends up 3rd on the team in FGA, maybe 4th if JR Smith gets enough minutes to surpass him.

  8. Brian Cronin

    Yeah, but fourth on the team in FGA is not bad. Sure, we’d like Novak to shoot more but he won’t have opportunities. Chandler doesn’t shoot much. So that leaves it pretty much between Felton and Kidd. Remember, our concern back then was that Felton was second on the team (by a good margin). Fourth is fine by me.

  9. ruruland

    I did a projection last night for the Knicks team shooting efficiency

    It was a little rough because it only looks at a ten player rotation at the following minutes: Melo 36, Amare 30, Chandler 30, Camby 18,
    Brewer 24, Smith 26, Felton 30 , Kidd 26

    With the exception Felton, I simply took each of the players career efficiency per 36 minutes and adjusted it for their respective minutes. Obviously interaction effects, pace, rebounding percentage, turnover percentage will change the amount of shots each of these players take per 36 minutes.

    I plugged in Felton’s efficiency numbers from 2009 and 2010 instead of his career numbers. It’s likely that Camby is unable to reach his career average in efficiency, but guys like Novak and Chandler have had huge trendline swings in the las few years which weren’taccounted for, and I think there’s plenty of reason to believe Melo, Smith and Amar’e will all shoot at or above career efficiency for all the reasons we’ve gone over in the past.

    In other words, if you believe that Felton/Camby and the rest of the players who receive minutes play below the efficiency of the top 10, I’d say there’s good reason it can be more than made up for with higher efficiency elsewhere.

    Kidd has had higher efficiency the last five years then he had in his athletic prime.

    Here is the number I got: 563TS

    In 2010, that would have ranked 5th.

    In 2009, it would have anked 7th

    In 2008, it would have ranked 4th.

    Now, for those of you who are surprised by this, consider that the Knicks were tied for 10th in TS last year, and were only .6 percent behind the fifth place Golden State Warriors.

    Consider this: For all the talk of how losing Lin hurts the Knicks, New York point guards had a combined .473 TS last season, which was 28th in the league, ahead of only Washington and Charlotte !!!

    There’s little reason to believe Kidd, Felton and Prigioni will play anywhere near that bad compared to the league…

  10. jon abbey

    “I did a projection last night for the Knicks team shooting efficiency

    It was a little rough because it only looks at a ten player rotation at the following minutes: Melo 36, Amare 30, Chandler 30, Camby 18,
    Brewer 24, Smith 26, Felton 30 , Kidd 26 ”

    that’s only 220 minutes and 8 players, though.

  11. ruruland

    So the big question is, can the Knicks become a top 6 offense and a top 6 defense, which historically would mean that they’d finish in the upper 50s in wins — I predicted 53-58 wins, with an everything goes right prediction of 60+, so long as Melo and Chandler play 70-75 games and the rest of the team is healthy for 80-85% of the season.

    The Knicks are likely to improve upon their shooting efficiency with respect to the rest of the league, but that wasn’t the weakness last season.

    It was turnover percentage, where the Knicks ranked 27th.

    In: Raymond Felton career tov %16.4, Out: Lin tov% 21.4

    In: Jason Kidd career tov% 18.9 Out: Davis tov 28.4%

    In: Ronnie Brewer career tov % 9.8 Out Fields tov % 15.1

    In: more minutes for Smith (9.7) and Novak (9.1) Out: Walker tov% 16.1

    In: Camby career tov % 12.8 Out: Jeffries 14.1

    Prigioni also looks like a really low turnover guard.

    The Knicks should improve in shooting efficiency, but they should make huge gains in turnover percentage, which was the Knicks biggest team weakness last season.

  12. ruruland

    jon abbey:
    “I did a projection last night for the Knicks team shooting efficiency

    It was a little rough because it only looks at a ten player rotation at the following minutes: Melo 36, Amare 30, Chandler 30, Camby 18,
    Brewer 24, Smith 26, Felton 30 , Kidd 26 ”

    that’s only 220 minutes and 8 players, though.

    Sorry, I had Novak at 20 mpg. It was included in my projection

    He’d average about 8.5 ppg in 20 minutes if he plays to his career averages.

    When i generated numbers simply by looking at past efficiency and shot totals per 36, the Knicks would average 105.7 points with that 9 man rotation. Of course, a huge amount of variables I’m not even looking at.

  13. ruruland

    JK47:
    This is Felton’s 8th NBA season.He’s had a 20+ USG% every season of his career except one and has taken more than 12 FGA/36 every year of his career except one.Maybe he turns into a Derek Fisher-style low usage PG in his 8th NBA season, but I’ll bet Felton ends up 3rd on the team in FGA, maybe 4th if JR Smith gets enough minutes to surpass him.

    I think he’ll play more like he did in Denver, where he was free to playmake and take more spot-up shots.

    Smith should take more overall shots in fewer minutes, though I don’t think there will be a huge minute difference.

    The way Novak is being emphasized, it wouldn’t shock me if he was pretty close to Felton,too.

  14. Mike Kurylo Post author

    ruruland:
    So the big question is, can the Knicks become a top 6 offense and a top 6 defense, which historically would mean that they’d finish in the upper 50s in wins — I predicted 53-58 wins, with an everything goes right prediction of 60+, so long as Melo and Chandler play 70-75 games and the rest of the team is healthy for 80-85% of the season.

    Wednesday…

    Also bookmarking this for April…

  15. JC Knickfan

    @11
    Ruruland are saying used minuted played vs Field Goal attempt to weight average?
    For example Melo should attempt the most FG so how did you account for that?

    Also if don’t mind, if you used Felton career number what would TS% be?

  16. ruruland

    Mike Kurylo: Wednesday…

    Also bookmarking this for April…

    I’m not sure what Wednesday means. But please bookmark.

    Sorry I haven’t been able to get that historical perspective piece to you, Mike. I’ve been swamped at my new job.

  17. johnlocke

    Nice posts. One issue I don’t think we adequately addressed in the offseason is outside shooting. We have Novak and JR. Smith as our marksmen — JR is good, but streaky game to game. Melo and Kidd are slightly above mediocre… no one else on the team can shoot. If that happens, and we can’t get out on the fast break with steals/turnovers, we’ll be slogging it out in the half court with Melo as our best post up player and lots of contested jumpers as teams pack it in — good defensive teams that is. That’s my greatest concern for the team this year….teams packing the paint and watching as we gladly take 20+ threes per game and shoot below league average on them.

    ruruland: Sorry, I had Novak at 20 mpg. It was included in my projection

    He’d average about 8.5 ppg in 20 minutes if he plays to his career averages.

    When i generated numbers simply by looking at past efficiency and shot totals per 36, the Knicks would average 105.7 points with that 9 man rotation. Of course, a huge amount of variables I’m not even looking at.

  18. ruruland

    JC Knickfan:
    @11
    Ruruland are saying used minuted played vs Field Goal attempt to weight average?
    For example Melo should attempt the most FG so how did you account for that?

    Also if don’t mind, if you used Felton career number what would TS% be?

    I simply used career fga/fta/ts per 36 minute, and adjusted that number to the minutes I used.

    In other words, the total number has not been adjusted for interaction effects, which could alter the amout of shots each of these players take. It also isn’t adjusted for pace, which depending on the player, could mean more or fewer attempts based on how fast the Knicks play this year (they should be top 10)

  19. jon abbey

    followed by a depressed moment when I googled him only to find he’s still younger than half our current roster (31).

  20. jon abbey

    7 shots in 9 minutes for Felton, yikes. this would be a time where it would be nice if Chandler could occasionally create his own offense.

  21. ruruland

    jon abbey:
    7 shots in 9 minutes for Felton, yikes. this would be a time where it would be nice if Chandler could occasionally create his own offense.

    Woodson will develop some motion sets that should utilize Brewer’s baseline cutting and finishing, as well as his + ability to come off a screen and hit a mid-range shot.

  22. ruruland

    jon abbey:
    7 shots in 9 minutes for Felton, yikes. this would be a time where it would be nice if Chandler could occasionally create his own offense.

    Let’s remember that Brewer was often on the floor with two bigs, Rose/Watson and Korver.

    Not exactly a balanced offensive lineup, but it was great.

  23. jon abbey

    ruruland: Let’s remember that Brewer was often on the floor with two bigs, Rose/Watson and Korver.

    Not exactly a balanced offensive lineup, but it was great.

    Boozer and Gibson were both better offensive threats than any of the four non-Melo starters tonight, plus whichever two of their four rotating big men were in crashed the boards hard and got them extra possessions. I do agree with your implicit point that if Amare and JR Smith aren’t in the lineup, Melo needs to be taking a ton of shots a la Rose/Chicago. our model for success is probably the Iverson/Mutumbo 2000-2001 Sixers, very strong on D and struggling many nights on O.

    we’re almost certainly going to be very reliant on JR Smith’s offense again this year, hopefully he has a lot better year than he did last year.

  24. StatsTeacher

    WOW!!! Knicks look Terrible. That airball by Felton, whoa. He has hit at least 1 3 though. Clyde is right — Carmelo is the only scorer, excepting Copeland (Copeland!). Gettin’ to The Promised Land with Felton — good luck with that. Prigioni should start at PG from what I have seen.

    The Sixers without Bynum and Holiday — not like they have all their studs either.

  25. BigBlueAL

    Judging from my Twitter timeline its full-blown panic time already due to tonight’s 1st half lol

  26. StatsTeacher

    Just checked box score, and Felton actually has 13 points, not bad considering he is needed to score. He is 4 for 11 though and only has 2 assists, and IMHO looks bad — he doesn’t get INTO the lane, he sidesteps it and either forces a lousy shoot or makes a relatively bad pass in that the recipient has trouble going up right away.

    Carmelo — man among boys, if this was regular season I’d say let him try for 40 points and hope for the W.

  27. knicknyk

    Melo running a 3 on 1 fastbreak Novak was wide open in the corner Melo didn’t pass forced a lay up that didn’t go in.

  28. StatsTeacher

    And Melo is fouling’ at a crazy rate — think he had 2 in about 30 seconds near the end of the half. . . . .

  29. jon abbey

    Melo is leading NY in assists at halftime with 4, he’s getting very little help on that end of the floor, and NY looks bad on D too.

  30. jon abbey

    Kidd finally getting involved pushing the ball and getting people open shots, Felton now has 20 points in 22 minutes and NY is on a mini-run to cut it to 13.

  31. ruruland

    knicknyk:
    Melo running a 3 on 1 fastbreak Novak was wide open in the corner Melo didn’t pass forced a lay up that didn’t go in.

    Now we’re talking.

  32. jon abbey

    23-4 run to end the third, Philly by 4 after 3.

    Knicks offense still looks pretty bad, almost every possession ends in an attempted 3, 4 for 11 from deep in a 8 minute stretch.

  33. yellowboy90

    Novak went Hero Ball on the Knicks. Seriously Steve C’mon man. lol.

    on the real I like what I see from Copeland. Shoots when open and passes the ball o.k. He might be a pre-season wonder but I wouldn’t mind him in the starting line up and let Kidd come off the bench and Brewer move to the 2. Jumping the Gun? Probably but who knows.

  34. ruruland

    yellowboy90:
    Novak went Hero Ball on the Knicks. Seriously Steve C’mon man. lol.

    on the real I like what I see from Copeland. Shoots when open and passes the ball o.k. He might be a pre-season wonder but I wouldn’t mind him in the starting line up and let Kidd come off the bench and Brewer move to the 2. Jumping the Gun? Probably but who knows.

    It’s only hero-ball if you miss. Novak should have the greenest light in the league.

  35. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    It’s funny, too, because Novak still had something like .78 PPP, which is bad, but not the normal 2 for 10 bad.

    Green light all season, let’s hope.

  36. johnlocke

    Just gonna go ahead and repost this from earlier today…manifesting itself tonight and I think all season:

    One issue I don’t think we adequately addressed in the offseason is outside shooting. We have Novak and JR. Smith as our marksmen — JR is good, but streaky game to game. Melo and Kidd are slightly above mediocre… no one else on the team can shoot. If that happens, and we can’t get out on the fast break with steals/turnovers, we’ll be slogging it out in the half court with Melo as our best post up player and lots of contested jumpers as teams pack it in — good defensive teams that is. That’s my greatest concern for the team this year….teams packing the paint and watching as we gladly take 20+ threes per game and shoot below league average on them.

  37. ruruland

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    It’s funny, too, because Novak still had something like .78 PPP, which is bad, but not the normal 2 for 10 bad.

    Green light all season, let’s hope.

    All the missed shots and a lot of bad offense, but the really low turnover rate sould be a staple.

    That will alway keep the Knicks in games. Defense plays the way it did in second half Knicks will be on track.

  38. ruruland

    johnlocke:
    Just gonna go ahead and repost this from earlier today…manifesting itself tonight and I think all season:

    One issue I don’t think we adequately addressed in the offseason is outside shooting. We have Novak and JR. Smith as our marksmen — JR is good, but streaky game to game. Melo and Kidd are slightly above mediocre… no one else on the team can shoot. If that happens, and we can’t get out on the fast break with steals/turnovers, we’ll be slogging it out in the half court with Melo as our best post up player and lots of contested jumpers as teams pack it in — good defensive teams that is. That’s my greatest concern for the team this year….teams packing the paint and watching as we gladly take 20+ threes per game and shoot below league average on them.

    IDK, the Knicks won’t be a great shooting team, but Felton, Kidd and Melo are all more than adequate spot-up shooters.

    Novak and Smith will likely be the best 3-pt duo in the NBA (volume and efficiency)

    The question will be creating that offense consistently.

  39. StatsTeacher

    Second half much more respectable. At halftime it was a hot pile. Interesting game from Felton, some great shooting, but offense still very stagnant. Melo’s game is much closer to the hoop than he thinks it is.

  40. StatsTeacher

    Sixers did not play Bynum, Holiday, Turner and DWright. IMHO (watched/loved him with GS) DWright changes things — think Novak with actual defense. Sixers could/should be a load this year. Biggest ? mark is actually Doug Collins.

  41. JC Knickfan

    @54
    Are telling Melo not shoot 3pt so much? 2-15 in last 2 games.

    So Ruruland you predicting Melo will shoot high 30’s in 3’s. Too me that 37% or higher, but what your definitions?

  42. ruruland

    StatsTeacher:
    Second half much more respectable.At halftime it was a hot pile.Interesting game from Felton, some great shooting, but offense still very stagnant.Melo’s game is much closer to the hoop than he thinks it is.

    I think trying to define Melo’s game to any one confined area of the floor is a big mistake.

    He’s going to have a big year from 3. Last year he lead the league in scoring efficiency on perimeter penetration.

    Tonight he missed a lot of shots. Many nights 3-4 of those will be substituted for free throws. Bad whistle tonight.

    The idea is to reduce isolation jump shots, and increase everything else.

  43. Will the Thrill

    As a team, really stagnant on offense… and Ronnie Brewer played absolutely awful on both ends. Novak is great when he is on but he needs to know when he isn’t on and stop forcing quick threes. We’ll see how the regular season goes but if this is any indication, we’ll be in for a long one.

  44. ruruland

    JC Knickfan:
    @54
    Are telling Melo not shoot 3pt so much? 2-15 in last 2 games.

    So Ruruland you predicting Melo will shoot high 30?s in 3?s. Too me that 37% or higher, but what your definitions?

    yeah, that’s about right. His 4 year trend is 35.4. I see him in the 37-39 range, around 4.5-5.5 a game which is a lot. But will have positive impact on his efficiency.

  45. Will the Thrill

    Kidd looked very slow on defense tonight. Basically his main role seems to be initiating the fast break offense because he doesn’t help much in the half court either.

  46. ruruland

    Will the Thrill:
    As a team, really stagnant on offense… and Ronnie Brewer played absolutely awful on both ends.Novak is great when he is on but he needs to know when he isn’t on and stop forcing quick threes. We’ll see how the regular season goes but if this is any indication, we’ll be in for a long one.

    You’re saying the same thing about the Nets and Lakers, right?

    Look, preseason is important and it often gives somewhat of an indication of whe’re you’re starting from.

    The offense was certainly less stagnant than it was last year. Kidd and Brewer hadn’t played with the 3 starters before.

  47. cgreene

    Ruru, I have been mostly an optimist and backer of the current roster. I’ve generally been a Melo apologist. I’ve talked myself into Ray Felton. I thought the signings of Camby, Brewer and Kidd were good depth. But the bottom line is this. This is a mediocre team. This is not a 50 win team. Melo has shown no growth. His game is the same. He drives into 3 guys. He looks bad from 3 (yes even in spot ups off assists) and his defense is still inconsistent (and I have defended his defense vociferously ha). Felton has not helped. Kidd has not helped open up the offense. AND AND the biggest thing of note is that the defense absolutely looks worse than last year. This team is showing regression. Period. And when you start talking about 60 wins and that crap you lose credibility and, frankly, you lower the value of comments on the board. Analyze what you see in front of you. Because what you see is not good. In the spirit of our election season count me as someone who has switched his vote. THCJ in 2012-2013.

  48. Will the Thrill

    Nets and Lakers are too. We will be better than the Nets but the Lakers can afford to have a stagnant offense with Nash/Pau/Howard.

    ruruland: You’re saying the same thing about the Nets and Lakers, right?

    Look, preseason is important and it often gives somewhat of an indication of whe’re you’re starting from.

    The offense was certainly less stagnant than it was last year. Kidd and Brewer hadn’t played with the 3 starters before.

  49. cgreene

    ruruland:
    Ok. Go at it folks. I’ll be around later.

    That’s a frickin cop out. I’ve never called you out. I’ve supported. The Knicks have looked awful. Melo was terrible at the end of the game. Address the facts, man. Is that what you’re gonna say when we are 5-8?

  50. d-mar

    A sample of preseason records so far:

    Lakers 0-6
    Clips 2-3
    Boston 3-5
    Golden St. 5-1
    NY 2-3

    Can we please let a few regular season games go by before we proclaim the coming of the Knicks apocalypse?

  51. StatsTeacher

    Melo WAS a beast tonight. He seemed to be able to score at will on drives. His 2nd jump is other-worldly quick. ruru–can you call him up and tell him that — :-)

  52. cgreene

    d-mar:
    A sample of preseason records so far:

    Lakers 0-6
    Clips 2-3
    Boston 3-5
    Golden St. 5-1
    NY 2-3

    Can we please let a few regular season games go by before we proclaim the coming of the Knicks apocalypse?

    Don’t care about the record. If we had played starters and gotten some leads and showed signs then fine who cares about the final score. But that’s not the case here. The offense has looked terrible and the defense has looked worse than last year.

  53. ruruland

    cgreene: That’s a frickin cop out.I’ve never called you out.I’ve supported.The Knicks have looked awful.Melo was terrible at the end of the game.Address the facts, man.Is that what you’re gonna say when we are 5-8?

    HAha. Awful is a very strong word. The starters have had a positive +/- in every game outside of Toronto.

    Discluding the Boston subs game, more than half of the minutes have been played by guys who will either not play, or not get more than 15 minutes.

    They’ve shot the ball poorly so far and the offense has been up an down, while the defense hasn’t executed for large stretches.

    It’s not the best place to be preseason, not with all of the lineup changes and guys not playing, but you see what the team will be in flashes.

  54. ruruland

    StatsTeacher:
    Melo WAS a beast tonight.He seemed to be able to score at will on drives.His 2nd jump is other-worldly quick.ruru–can you call him up and tell him that —:-)

    He’s got the first step back, that’s for sure.

    The finishing will come.

  55. ruruland

    cgreene: Don’t care about the record.If we had played starters and gotten some leads and showed signs then fine who cares about the final score.But that’s not the case here.The offense has looked terrible and the defense has looked worse than last year.

    Second half tonight wasn’t a sign? There weren’t signs against Boston, against Washington, even that Toronto first half where the Knicks had a nice lead prior to the starters getting pulled?

  56. BigBlueAL

    cgreene: That’s a frickin cop out.I’ve never called you out.I’ve supported.The Knicks have looked awful.Melo was terrible at the end of the game.Address the facts, man.Is that what you’re gonna say when we are 5-8?

    Starting out 5-8 wouldnt exactly be the end of the world, although it certainly wouldnt be ideal.

  57. cgreene

    ruruland: Second half tonight wasn’t a sign? There weren’t signs against Boston, against Washington, even that Toronto first half where the Knicks had a nice lead prior to the starters getting pulled?

    Nothing since the 2nd game that has demonstrated fluidity on offense and consistency on D to be honest. And specifically, although he is getting to the hole well and getting fouled a lot, Melo has not shown growth. I counted 5 times where Melo got the ball mid post and either drove into 3 guys or shot a fade away as he was getting not double teamed but TRIPLE teamed. Def is not reading the floor or choosing not to move the ball. Either way: bad sign that we will see a more well rounded game from him.

  58. cgreene

    BigBlueAL: Starting out 5-8 wouldnt exactly be the end of the world, although it certainly wouldnt be ideal.

    Normally I would agree and maybe you’re right. But how much more mental hammering can Melo take? Eventually you have to front run and not be under so much pressure every night. It will be exhausting by mid season trying to catch up. IMO.

  59. ruruland

    cgreene: Don’t care about the record.If we had played starters and gotten some leads and showed signs then fine who cares about the final score.But that’s not the case here.The offense has looked terrible and the defense has looked worse than last year.

    Carmelo is a +8 in all preseason games.

    Should give you a pretty good indication Knicks haven’t been awful. Far from where they’ll be though.

  60. StatsTeacher

    cgreene: Normally I would agree and maybe you’re right.But how much more mental hammering can Melo take?Eventually you have to front run and not be under so much pressure every night.It will be exhausting by mid season trying to catch up.IMO.

    I actually think the guy under real pressure is Felton. If he is not like Lin (hint: he won’t be) tthe garden could ugly in a hurry. Melo actually seems to roll with stuff.

  61. ruruland

    cgreene: (Quote)

    You’re talking about the post play where he got fouled by the center, and then the turn-around when he was double-teamed. The double-team shot was bad, the play where he post and spun should have been foul.

    He was getting doubled and kicking a lot.

  62. ruruland

    cgreene, as a matter of perspective, Kobe Bryant has a -16 so far. Worse, Ron Artest, Pau Gasol, and Steve Nash are a combined -27.

  63. jon abbey

    not many NY highlights, but Copeland continues to look like he’s got some game, and Clyde calling Jason Richardson “Q-Rich” over and over was pretty entertaining.

  64. EB

    The offense looked pretty bad back when we brought in Amare and Felton the first time around, it just took some time for the offense to gel. I wouldn’t worry too much about what happens in preseason.

    Melo did seem to pass out of double teams quite a few times in the little I watched but also forced some things. I do want him taking the three when its open but damn he better start making them.

  65. massive

    FWIW, Mark Cuban reads (and posts) on the Wages of Wins website. He disagrees with them sometimes, but the fact that he even posts on the website gives a lot of credence to WP/48.
    http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/16/the-miraculous-stephen-jackson/

    Mark Cuban’s comment:
    thank you for the additional data. You actually make my point.
    In a team game if one out of every 5 games a player can have a significant, positive impact on the outcome of a game is that player more valuable than the steady state average player ?
    If a player plays below WOW average 4 out of 5 games , could this player still be more important to a team than the player that plays at an average level all the time ?
    Yes. Matchups and Coaching matter. If you play to your teams strengths and leverage the advantages you have, the player may not be the star of the game every game, but if he can win you the games where he has the advantage , he is doing his job well.

    Again, coaching matters. If you force a guy to do what he is not capable of doing you get turnovers, fewer rebounds, missed shots. All WOW negatives.

    Finally, when matters. i like advanced +/- is because it weights the event. ie, A rebound or turnover up 15 w 1 min to go shouldnt count.

  66. jon abbey

    “the fact that he even posts on the website gives a lot of credence to WP/48.”

    with all due respect, this is an insane perspective. he posted on Oct 3 to mock them, and then when they wrote a whole post analyzing his initial comment, he posted again in response. Cuban is an internet guy, I’m sure he posts plenty of places, agreeing, disagreeing, whatever. his mere presence somewhere proves nothing.

  67. Brian Cronin

    What the fuck, Dwight Howard? Speaking about the Defensive Player of the Year Award…

    “I thought I should have won it last year, to be honest with you,” Howard told reporters after practice Monday. “I was a little bit upset about that.”

    For serious? You half ass your way through the season and then get pissed when you only come in third? Too dumb. I mean, don’t get me wrong, Howard might have a reasonable case for the award (under the argument that even a half-assed Howard is still the best defender in the league) but to be pissed about it in this scenario? Too stupid.

  68. JC Knickfan

    ruruland: yeah, that’s about right. His 4 year trend is 35.4. I see him in the 37-39 range, around 4.5-5.5 a game which is a lot. But will have positive impact on his efficiency.

    I book this as your prediction. I’ll love see happen as no doubt it will contribute to more win, but willing to bet money it doesn’t.

    Melo TS% >= 0.575 and 3pt% >= 0.37

    Career Season TS% (2007-08) = 0.568
    Career Average TS% = 0.544
    Career Season 3pt% (2010-11) = 0.378
    Career Average 3pt% = 0.322

  69. jon abbey

    Brian Cronin:
    What the fuck, Dwight Howard?Speaking about the Defensive Player of the Year Award…

    For serious? You half ass your way through the season and then get pissed when you only come in third? Too dumb. I mean, don’t get me wrong, Howard might have a reasonable case for the award (under the argument that even a half-assed Howard is still the best defender in the league) but to be pissed about it in this scenario? Too stupid.

    John Hollinger ?@johnhollinger

    Among players carefully rationing out an 80% effort, I thought Dwight Howard was the best defender last year.

    :)

  70. Brian Cronin

    John Hollinger ?@johnhollinger

    Among players carefully rationing out an 80% effort, I thought Dwight Howard was the best defender last year.

    Ha! Exactly. That’s a great line from Hollinger.

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