Knicks 2013 Preview: Guard Survey
So we, the good writers at KnickerBlogger, had a little pow-wow on various aspects of the upcoming 2013 Knicks season. Over the next few days, actually pretty much up until the season starts, KnickerBlogger will publish these results, as well as a few pertinent questions that loom over the boys in chang and laahm in ’13.
1. Raymond Felton 15 PER (Over/Under)
Felton’s career PER is 14.4, which would make this a statistical tossed coin, especially if you consider a normal career path would be peaking at around the age of 28. Hence one would expect the Knicks PG to have a PER over his career average, since that number is gotten by taking equal parts of his early career. Except for one thing.
Last year in Portland, Felton’s PER dropped to a 13.4, which was a career low. In fact if you look at his PER in comparison to his effective shooting percentage, he’s only managed an above average PER in the seasons where he’s shot above 46% eFG%. That is Felton’s total production can loosely be based on his shooting percentage from the field. Throw in the off-season craziness at the point guard position (aka Jeremy Lin) and the media could turn against Felton pretty quickly. Odds on “Not Everyone Loves Felton” being a newspaper article title at some point in the season has to be 30%. Oh it was already done this summer? Yikes!
Yours truly bucked the trend and took the under.
2. Iman Shumpert 41 games played (Over/Under)
If Shumpert comes back on January 1st, that would mean he missed 30 games, which would still give him a 12 game cushion. In January, the Knicks average a game every 2.3 days, so the latest Shump-Shump could come back & make the over is the 27th, but that would mean he’d need to stay healthy down the stretch. Shumpert has said he’d be back December/January, so he should make this an easy over.
Except (there’s that word again) the Knicks tend to under-report the injuries of their players. Last year everyone thought that Lin’s knee was just “a little sore” and and the gash Mike Bibby’s neck was just “a cooking accident.” But Lin required surgery, and Bibby’s neck was the result of a walker (“see Robert, there’s still room for zombie jokes!”)
Despite my better judgement, I’m going with the over. Mostly because I have two wee-ones running head-on into every solid substance in the neighborhood and recover in the time it takes most people to say “ow.” In other words, kids heal quickly. And now that I’m approaching another milestone in decades, from my perspective Shumpert’s 22 years of age might as well be a toddler in pullups.
3. Player with most games played at SG. (Brewer, Kidd, Shumpert, White, J.R. Smith, Other)
It’s hard to reconcile this with the above, no? One would expect the Knicks to go full defense this year (did you see who they picked up this off season?) and Shumpert would be the best mugger of the bunch.
Except we mostly took Brewer. Is it because he’s a better rebounder? Is it because he commits half the number of turnovers? A third less fouls? Or is it because he’s 5 years the senior, and the Knicks combed geriatric wards for players this summer?
I went with Brewer, but I’m kinda surprised that no one went with the darkhorses White or Kidd. Had I joined a Crossfit gym, White would have been my choice.
Thomas B. says:
The shooting guard rotation could very well be run the way small forward was manned under Larry Brown when the starter was based on things like: “Hey, which one of you guys grew up near here?” Or, “You’re starting tonight, Qyntel. Happy Birthday.”
Which Question Did The KnickerBloggers Get Wrong?
- Felton will be under 15 PER (36%, 50 Votes)
- Brewer isn't going to start most at SG (25%, 34 Votes)
- None. You guys are truly brilliant. (22%, 30 Votes)
- Shumpert won't play 41 games (17%, 23 Votes)
Total Voters: 137