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Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Knicks 2013 Preview: Forwards/Centers Survey

The 2013 Knicks preview continues. We asked smart people questions. They answered. We untied them.

1. Steve Novak 43.6% 3P%
Over 56%

That’s his career average, but Novak ended the season on a sour note when Miami completely shut him down. Knick fans were drunk on his intoxicating stroke knocking down three after three. But after the Heat showed how to shut him down, they must be wondering if other teams will follow suit, which would make 2013 an awful hangover for Novak. The young forward has worked on expanding his repertoire, with one or two dribble pull-up shots and drawing contact to counter-act what he’ll see from defenses this year.

I went with the under because that’s a ridiculously high number to keep, especially for one that’s going to tinker with his game. Novak might be able to get shots off with new moves, but I wonder if they’ll be of the same quality. Sure he can shoot nearly 50% from downtown with his feet perfectly set and lots of space, just like he’s alone in the gym. But will he be able to do it after a defender ran at him, and he has to side step then launch? Not at the same rate, is my guess.

2. Amar’e pts/36: 19.2
67% Under

At this stage of his career Amar’e reminds me of the grade school kid entering high school. At one point he was the big kid on campus, with the coolest kid in the school (Nash) as his best friend. But now he’s merely one of the crowd and finding it difficult to cope with a changing body.

S.T.A.T. is no longer the freak of nature he once was, and can’t rely on someone else to find easy buckets for him. In fact the Knicks have made it more difficult for Stoudemire to score, with Tyson Chandler clogging the middle, Anthony occupying the mid-post, and an offensive scheme that doesn’t fit his skill set.

So with things a little more hostile to Stoudemire, he, like Novak, went back to the drawing board. S.T.A.T. sought out Hakeem Olajuwon to give him some new moves. Will it help? I voted under. Hopefully “The Dream” showed him how to play defense and rebound as well.

[Note: This poll was taken before his knee injury.]

3. Carmelo Anthony TS% 54%
56% Under

With Lin gone and Amar’e still trying to find himself, the Knicks are undoubtedly ‘Melo’s team on offense. The break-even point for volume scorers should be the league average which is usually around 54%, although last year it was 52.7% (probably due to the strike). So one would expect a guy that scores 23.9 pts/36 to do it at a rate as good as the average NBAer.

Look here’s the gist. The Knicks were ranked 5th on offense last year, and they’ll likely be near to that high this year. So they’ll go as far as the offense will take them. As the centerpiece, Anthony’s ability to take smart shots, given that he takes so many, will help as much as any one player can. He hit 56% a more than once in his career, so this shouldn’t be a difficult task.

I went with the under, so ‘Melo, prove me wrong.

4. Rasheed 1000 minutes
100% Under

The fewest amount of minutes ‘Sheed played in a non-strike season is 1780. That last season in Boston, Wallace’s numbers dipped heavily. Was that a function of the team dynamics or just the aging process?

Most likely Wallace will take the 540 minutes Harrellson ate up last year, which translates to about 670 minutes in a full season. Also note that Jorts missed time due to his injury, and 1000 minutes for BTPH doesn’t seem so crazy.

I took the under, but you probably figured that out already.

Robert Silverman says:

If Rasheed plays over a thousand minutes (approximately 12 MPG over the 82 game season), it means that the Knick frontcourt will have been so utterly decimated by injuries that Roger Hinds will look like he stepped out of Thomas Eakins’ “The Gross Clinic.”

Which Question Did The KnickerBloggers Get Wrong?

  • Carmelo Anthony is gonna torch 54% ts% (28%, 30 Votes)
  • Amar’e will score more than19.2 pts/36 (21%, 22 Votes)
  • Steve Novak will be under 43.6% 3p%. (20%, 21 Votes)
  • None. You looking into a crystal ball? (17%, 18 Votes)
  • Rasheed will play 1000 hard minutes. (14%, 15 Votes)

Total Voters: 106

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10 comments on “Knicks 2013 Preview: Forwards/Centers Survey

  1. knicknyk

    Our offense wasn’t ranked 5th last year. It was ranked 19th I believe. Under lin we hand a 12th ranked offense & under Melo (during his hot streak) it was ranked 1st. It was our defense that was ranked 5th.

  2. Mike Kurylo Post author

    knicknyk:
    Our offense wasn’t ranked 5th last year. It was ranked 19th I believe. Under lin we hand a 12th ranked offense & under Melo (during his hot streak) it was ranked 1st. It was our defense that was ranked 5th.

    My bad. I meant defense. The O was ranked 17th.

  3. Nick C.

    I agree on Sheed and Novak. Agree with Mike on Amare, albeit with the benefit of hindsight. I think Melo should be able to better 54 TSP.

  4. ess-dog

    This team needs Amare full strength on both sides of the ball. His 2-3 week setback is going to hurt more than most of you realize.

    Sure his defense is a little below average on good days, but it’s not like we have much better options defensively. Kurt and Sheed too old to defend good pfs and Melo won’t do much better defending the post.

    More importantly, we need a high volume, high efficiency finisher in the post. It’s not gonna be Chandler. Plus, Amare’s absence leaves two inefficient shooters as our possible 2nd options in JR and Ray.

    Like it or not, this team does not stand a chance in the playoffs without a healthy Amare.

  5. chrisk06811

    I’m a die hard knick fan; sometimes I don’t get the analysis and the numbers, I go by feel and trust you guys. but…..this quote regarding Stevie Novak stuck out to me:
    “Knick fans were drunk on his intoxicating stroke”

    uh…….ew?????

  6. Brian Cronin

    Ouch, we all went under on Sheed? That’s pretty funny.

    Interestingly, with Amar’e’s injury, Sheed might get a chance to get some early minutes (stress might).

  7. Mike Kurylo Post author

    chrisk06811:
    I’m a die hard knick fan; sometimes I don’t get the analysis and the numbers, I go by feel and trust you guys.but…..this quote regarding Stevie Novak stuck out to me:“Knick fans were drunk on his intoxicating stroke”

    uh…….ew?????

    Let me guess, you giggle at the Washington monument as well?

Comments are closed.