But as good as the offense looks, based on the numbers Ted posted @45, the defense is where this team improves a lot.
The Knicks will defend the paint and the perimeter better than last year. The key for them, and what may define this season, is whether they can defend their boards, an issue that caused some concern in the preseason. Part of that may be the fact that the first team did not play long minutes.

But defense is going to be the defining issue this year. They have a guy that can get 30 points and 10 rebounds, when they need it. They have supporting players who also can score, and score in bunches.
But if their defense shows an ability to limit penetration (something that killed them last year) and they can defend the long bombs, it will serve as a real catalyst for the kind of offense D’Antoni runs, and the scorers the Knicks have.
If they can keep opponent scoring to 100 or less, this could be a nice season indeed.

I don’t mind a little optimism to start the year.

ess-dog: Hah, this is pretty much what we saw in the pre-season.

The thing, though, is I don’t know how those numbers break down between rotation players and scrubs. Granted the Knicks roster is fairly deep, but unless there are tons of injuries I don’t know how many real games (non-blowout situation) we will see a unit along the lines of, say, Rautins, Mason, Walker, AR, and Turiaf (totally made up example, but there were long stretches of pre-season with units that looked pretty much like that). You’re probably going to have at least 2 or so of your top 5, 6 guys on the court most of the time. In one of the last two games they really lost it without Felton or TD in the game and had a bunch of TOs. That’s probably on Rautins not being a PG yet and Mason not being one overall, but it was also a stretch without Amare, Gallo and Azu (both injured), and I think WC.

ess-dog: the rebounding will be a problem unless Mosgov really steps it up. Between the frontcourt starters Gallo, Amare and Mosgov, I think we could have some pretty good rebounding potential if those guys really get after it. Maybe not great, but at least average.

I’m just not that concerned. I mean I don’t think it’s going to be a strength and I’m not happy with Timo’s rebounding (after the way he killed it in Europe)… However, Amare is solidly average. Gallo consistently rebounded well all pre-season. AR has been a very good rebounder for 2 years. WC, Azu, and Fields must all be at least above average at the 2 (though at the 4 WC is probably going to be way below average without a miracle). Felton and Douglas board for guards. In getting to .500 I think they can live with a weakness or two. If they’re .500 I’m not really complaining, though of course I’d like more. If they can score and defend the way we’d like and not turn it over a ton, I

ess-dog: And while we don’t have a clear-cut 2nd scoring option (unless Gallo steps up there)

I think Gallo is a pretty good 2nd scoring option. He’s already in line with a Rashard Lewis type. Douglas is in line with a Jameer Nelson. So the Knicks don’t have a VC in this example, but Orlando was the #4 offense in the NBA. I could live with #11, where Orlando was in 08-09 with a WC/Azu-like Hedo.

ess-dog: I think all our starters have above average scoring ability at their positions: Felton

… had to comment on that…

ess-dog: I think rebounding and passing are the biggest concerns.  

I was pretty impressed with the ball movement in the pre-season. Felton did about what you’d expect (improving at the end). Douglas improved. I really liked the passing from the bigs, and overall there were some games where assists were scattered around throughout the likely rotation guys.

ess-dog: I don’t think he will be completely out of the rotation, but I could see D’Antoni saying something like “I’ll start you at 10 minutes a night and it’s up to you to earn more” or something of the like.

I don’t know what D’Antoni will do and I wouldn’t be surprised if AR is solidly in the rotation or out of it. The weird thing to me was how little AR seemed to play with the starters. I’m sure D’Antoni had a strategy, but I would have liked to see less iso and more 5th option easy looks to see what he could do in that role.

ess-dog: He wasn’t really much worse than Gallo in preseason.

Not a ton different. Gallo, though, had a 4 game stretch of excellence and then 2 awful games. I believe there was a play where he fell and hurt himself in one of those games, though I don’t know when it happened. Gallo also showed improvement in an area we were looking for in rebounding.

Randolph’s pre-season was pretty consistent with what he brought last season: 16.5 pts/36 (down from 18.5), 52.6 TS% (same 52.1), 2.6 ast/36 (up from 2.0), 1 stl/36 (down from 1.3), 1.4 blk/36 (down from 2.5)… however, his rebounding wasn’t there at 6.2 reb/36 (10.3 last season) and his TOs were through the roof at 4 per36 (2.4 last season)… His blocks were also down. Maybe that’s the role D’Antoni was playing him in and it’ll correct itself with less dancing around. It’s hard to say how he did without knowing what D’Antoni was asking him to do. If D’Antoni was asking him to play his best basketball and help the team win… he didn’t. If D’Antoni was screwing around and trying to see what he could do… that’s on D’Antoni.

ess-dog: He’s a great rebounder, a good passer and blocks shots. These are things we need. He does not need to shoot the ball in iso situations.

I pretty much agree. I’m not sure why D’Antoni didn’t put him in that situation more in pre-season, though. He did start a game, but he was often the last guy off the bench coming in against scrubs. Perhaps D’Antoni is comfortable he can excel in the 5th option role and was just giving him a chance to develop/see if he could do more.

ess-dog: As much as I like Douglas, he didn’t shoot that well this preseason overall. I think he’s better served as a bench guard.

I also pretty much see his best role as 6th man, unless he can develop into a starting PG or prove he can guard 2s consistently. However, I don’t see how starting or coming off the bench impacts your scoring. Maybe last season was an aberration, but I’m not too worried about a guy who posted a .571 TS% in a good chunk of minutes (i.e. not looking at garbage time) as a rookie. His pre-season scoring was really inconsistent (some very good games and some terrible ones) but he averaged 14.9 pts/36 on a 55% TS% and 6.2 ast/36. I would have liked 20 pts/36 at 60%, but that’s not bad… especially considering how poorly he shot from the field (38% from 3 instead of 28% and he’s at 17 pts/36 at 62.6 TS%). Like Gallo he missed a game after an awful game, though unlike Gallo he was shooting more in that game not less.

Hah, this is pretty much what we saw in the pre-season. I’d like to think the TO’s will go down but the rebounding will be a problem unless Mosgov really steps it up. Between the frontcourt starters Gallo, Amare and Mosgov, I think we could have some pretty good rebounding potential if those guys really get after it. Maybe not great, but at least average.

And while we don’t have a clear-cut 2nd scoring option (unless Gallo steps up there) I think all our starters have above average scoring ability at their positions: Felton, Gallo, Mosgov… even Fields was really more of a scorer/rebounder at Stanford. TD and Walker can really shoot off the bench and Chandler can get to the rim.

We should be ok there. I think rebounding and passing are the biggest concerns.

SeeWhyDee77: make no mistake-we will need every drop of talent he has and then some. Unless we add another reliable score or the youngins step up.  

I don’t mean to nit-pick because I agree with most of your comment, but I still feel like the Knicks have good offensive talent around Amare.

With no improvement from last season:

Gallo: 16 pts/36, .575 TS%
TD: 15.9 pts/36, .571 TS%
Walker: 15.6 pts/36, insane TS%
Chandler: 15.4 pts/36, .535 TS%
Felton: 13.2 pts/36, .525 TS%
AR: 18.5 pts/36, .521 TS%
Azu (08-09, insane 09-10 #s but SSS): 16.1 pts/36, .562 TS%
Mason (08-09, hand injury): 14 pts/36, .554 TS%
Turiaf: 8.5 pts/36, .574 TS%
Timo and Fields: N/A

It would be optimistic to expect everyone to improve, but if you split the difference (some improve, some get worse, some remain constant, rookies do medium-case) you have an awful lot of guys who score at an above average efficiency. To have one AMAZING scorer and a bunch of above average scorers and not have a pretty good offense would require a ton a TOs and horrific offensive rebounding.

Part of the reason the Knicks looked so terrible in the pre-season when Amare came out was that it often meant several other starters came out as well. D’Antoni played a sort of 3rd unit for entire quarters in the pre-season.

Re: Anthony, I don’t think he will be completely out of the rotation, but I could see D’Antoni saying something like “I’ll start you at 10 minutes a night and it’s up to you to earn more” or something of the like.

He was clearly out played by Mosgov but Mosgov has 3 years on Randolph. He wasn’t really much worse than Gallo in preseason. Hopefully Randolph can learn what he didn’t learn in Golden State and be helped by a positive environment and a mentor like Amare. He’s a great rebounder, a good passer and blocks shots. These are things we need. He does not need to shoot the ball in iso situations.

It’s strange how Wilson was our best preseason 3pt shooter, closely followed by Landry and Walker. As much as I like Douglas, he didn’t shoot that well this preseason overall. I think he’s better served as a bench guard.

I mean, Wilson made a fair case to start this preseason. He could still improve his passing, but the shooting was strong. He and Landry we pretty close in terms of stats actually. Maybe it comes down to defending other 2′s in D’Antoni’s mind?

Ben R: but sudden improvement does happen it’s just rare.

That’s all I’m saying is that it’s unusual. Especially for a guy in his 26 year old season with 14,000 NBA minutes logged across 5 seasons.

Raja Bell and Joe Johnson are especially encouraging in that they did it playing for D’Antoni, so maybe he can teach efficiency. Joe Johnson, though, was in his 4th season, not his 6th. He was 23. He had played a lot of minutes, though. Raja Bell was almost 30 (encouraging) and was a very good 3-pt shooter who started taking more 3s for D’Antoni (also somewhat encouraging). Still, though, while it’s not impossible it’s optimistic to look at a .327 career 3P shooter and say, “hey I expect him to match his career best of 38.5% and do it in many more attempts.” His rookie season was also good from 3, so maybe he developed some bad habit(s) or something that he’s found and corrected.

Salmons is also promising. Did it in his 5th season, but was 27. Also did it with a change in scenery. He struggled on his first team, though, and wasn’t getting as many minutes as Felton.

Gerald Wallace, like Joe Johnson, was 23. He was getting his 2nd crack at really playing in the NBA. He was known for being especially raw and physically weak coming out of (1 year of) college. He was left unprotected in the expansion draft. Joe Johnson had similar problems, and was also accused widely of having confidence problems. Salmons was drafted as a college vet, but as I remember he was often accused of being weak in Philly. Basically, all of these guys are wing players, and 3 of the 4 may have matured physically and mentally to become more effective. Felton was a big-time college player known for being “NBA ready.” Still doesn’t mean he can’t do it, but I would be a lot more surprised if Felton turned it around than Wallace or Johnson.

Allen Iverson is another guy who had his most efficient stretch from 30-32. There have been fairly effective PGs in the modern era with TS% under .500: Mookie Blaylock, Ron Harper, Eric Snow, Ron Harper, Rafer Alston, and Lindsay Hunter… Most of those guys enjoyed their success in the no-go ’90′s, though.

Ted Nelson:
I see the logic, I just don’t know if it’s any harder on your body/more likely to induce injury to bang a bit in the paint as it is to move around and also bang with PFs. You can damage your knee on a quick cut or through running the court (see a lot of PGs) just as easily as banging in close spaces if not more so (I am no medical expert). Especially if you were to say–I’m not sure but I sort of think so–that there is more scoring talent at the 4 than the 5 around the league… in which case he may actually have to work harder guarding 4s.   

Good point. I’m just envisioning the bigger 5′s leanin and pushing Stat around more. But ur right, there is tons more scoring leaguewide at the 4 than there is at the 5. I didn’t even consider that age old tactic of letting ur best offensive weapon guard the opposition’s least talented offensive player of his particular position group. So I guess with Stat it’s almost a catch 22. In one scenario he’ll problee be checking bigger 5′s because they’re not as big an offensive threat in some cases, and in the other he would be checking talented 4′s (ORL, NJ, BOS, MIA, etc..). So I guess all Mike D can really do is make sure he doesn’t overuse “Stats” (gettin my Berman on lmao), if that’s at all possible becuz make no mistake-we will need every drop of talent he has and then some. Unless we add another reliable score or the youngins step up.

Kikuchiyo: Hey folks, isn’t it time for predictions?Season is starting. Let’s commit.I’m going with 38 wins, I’m afraid. I’m expecting a big year from Amar’e, in terms of points, but some struggles getting wins. Haven’t seen enough starting level talent on this team yet. But all the important pieces are on the way up, so we’ll see. I’m definitely looking forward to it after the longest off-season in memory.  

Wednesday is the time…

He probably will get 36 mpg or so, which means that 15p 8a 3r and 3to could be his usual line…not so shabby, particular since he can actually D.

Anyone notice that his pick and roll chemistry actually looked better with Mozgov than with Amare?