Z – I agree with you; Amare’s perceived value is his real value. In basic terms, you’d have to say that Lee is a better acquisition at $13mil than Amare at $20mil – their stats aren’t different enough to account for 50% more in salary, whether you are working on back of a napkin or not. But in real terms, Lee will not help you sign top FAs, and Amare will.

Of course, if you have $7mil less to spend on FAs, then is it valuable to have the more expensive player? He’ll make it so FAs want to come, but there won’t be the cash for them….

Well, we have Amare now, so I’m a big Amare fan. And I will be at the GS game so I can give the General a standing O thanking him for his effort here.

40-42
8 seed
out in first round
do not acquire Melo at the deadline

One point I’ve tried to make is that if the Knicks won a bunch of games with David Lee and a good team, David Lee would be perceived to be more valuable.

Oh, no doubt about it.

Just look at the myth of “proven winner Derek Fisher.”

Z: They targeted free agency as their way to a quick recovery

My point, though, is that Chandler, Gallo, AR, Walker… these guys are all hitting free agency in the next couple of years. If those guys turn out to be the core of an emerging contender (best case) then the Knicks probably don’t have much room for a free agent. They could sign on this summer I suppose, but CP3, Deron, and Howard are competing directly with those guys for dollars… Not to say you don’t dump Gallo and AR if Dwight Howard wants to come to your team, but the chances of re-signing those guys have to higher than signing a highly coveted free agent even with Amare.

Z: The Knicks weren’t on Kobe’s destination list in 2007. The Knicks weren’t on Kevin Garnet’s destination list in 2007. The Knicks were on Chris Paul’s destination list in 2010. The Knicks were on Carmelo Anthony’s destination list in 2010. (That makes Lee 0-2 and Amar’e 2-2!)).  

All else is not equal, though. The Knicks were worse as a team and had no cap space in 2007. One point I’ve tried to make is that if the Knicks won a bunch of games with David Lee and a good team, David Lee would be perceived to be more valuable.

Frank O.: I don’t think any of those outside shooters really scare anyone, outside of Miller, but sure, they can shoot from outside.

What is up with “scaring” people? I know it’s Halloween, but who gives half a crap? Seriously… Miller takes a 3, he’s going to make it 40% of the time. Jones takes a 3, he’s going to make it 40% of the time. Who cares who you’re scared of. And was anyone scared of Miller in Minni or DC? I’ll take Miller over Jones, but in the context of having 3 pt shooters… 3 pt shooting if just NOT what lost Miami the game. They hit 40% on 20 attempts.

Frank O.: My point is teams will be content letting the Heat chuck from the outside. Let the 40 percent shooters like Jones (who btw shot 36 percent overall last year and 37 percent overall the year before), shoot away.

And when you let them “shoot away” and they hit a few open 3s while the Big 3 are also killing you… you’re screwed. The reason the Heat lost that game is because Bosh and Wade combined to have a TS% of 34%… Not because James Jones was 2/7 from 3 or Eddie House was 2/4… (3/7 is above 40% by the way and 3 points would not have won Miami that game).

Frank O.: Like I said, I think a lot of teams will let the Heat try to beat them from the perimeter, and pack it in the middle.

They very well may, but LeBron and Wade are not that easy to defend even by doing that. If they were teams would have been doing it a long time ago and getting better results. Teams will do that, and the Heat will still win more games than they lose. Vulnerable is pretty relative and I still think the Heat are a strong contender.

Frank O.: If Miller plays an entire season and shoots lights out, maybe, maybe that changes the equation

Again, Miller is not a particularly better shooter than James Jones. Teams are simply not scared of Mike Miller. When he’s healthy the Heat will be a better team, but it’s not going to be night and day.

Frank O.: No way they get to 72. They probably win 55 to 60 games, which is pretty damn good.  

Exactly… only one team has won 72 games in a season. Who besides ESPN is setting the bar that high in the first season? They can win 55 games and the title.

Ted Nelson:
*May be important* If the Knicks young guys develop they might not need to sign any big FAs. If the Knicks would have won 60 games with Lee, people would want to come play with him. It has some theoretical value, but I’m not sure it’s quantifiable. Amare’s value to other FAs is probably going to be well reflected in the Knicks’ win total.  

True, but the Knicks never really made much effort to rebuild through the draft. They targeted free agency as their way to a quick recovery, and though it may not be quantifiable yet, I think it is pretty hard to argue that Lee’s on-court value is equal to Amar’e's on-court value + his recruiting value. The top college coaches are probably pretty close when it comes to i-game coaching. What gives these coaches real value, and why Jim Calhoun is the highest paid state employee in all of Connecticut, is his ability to deliver top talent to the organization.

I think Amar’e's “perceived value” is his real value, and I think it is more that $5 mil/year more than Lee’s. (And I also think it is quantifiable. The Knicks weren’t on Kobe’s destination list in 2007. The Knicks weren’t on Kevin Garnet’s destination list in 2007. The Knicks were on Chris Paul’s destination list in 2010. The Knicks were on Carmelo Anthony’s destination list in 2010. (That makes Lee 0-2 and Amar’e 2-2!)).

Ted:

I don’t think any of those outside shooters really scare anyone, outside of Miller, but sure, they can shoot from outside. Miller played 54 games last year. He starts the year injured. We’ll see how many games he gets this year.

On Bosh, I know the guys can pass, but most passes are going to go to Wade or Lebron. Bosh will be an afterthought on this team. He averaged 14 shots per 36 over his career. He took 11 shots last night. One game. Who knows?
But Wade averages 17.6 shots per 36 and Lebron gets 18.6 per 36. It’ll be interesting to see. BTW, Lebron too 21 shots last night and Wade too 16. Interesting to see if those ratios stay the same…I would bet they don’t much.

My point is teams will be content letting the Heat chuck from the outside. Let the 40 percent shooters like Jones (who btw shot 36 percent overall last year and 37 percent overall the year before), shoot away. House also shot well below his lifetime average last year from 3 and had a down year in overall percentage last year.
Chalmers hit only 31 percent of his 3s last year and only 40 percent from the field.

I think if teams force the Heat outside more often than not, and pack it in, they are vulnerable. And I’ll take Lebron at 33 percent from 3 v. Lebron at maybe 60 percent in the paint any day.
Wade hits 29 percent from 3 and far, far better inside the paint.

Like I said, I think a lot of teams will let the Heat try to beat them from the perimeter, and pack it in the middle.

If Miller plays an entire season and shoots lights out, maybe, maybe that changes the equation, but I still think he doesn’t scare anyone enough to stop from packing it in with the three slashers the Heat show.

But you could be right. Maybe those three help the others to career years. Either way, the Heat will probably eat weak teams alive. But teams that can defend the paint will not be easy for them.
No way they get to 72. They probably win 55 to 60 games, which is pretty damn good.

Bright spots: TD, Fields, Mozgov, Chandler, Gallo
Disappointments: Felton, Mason, AR, Turiaf, Azu
As advertised: Amar’e, Walker
Who cares?: Rautins, Curry, Williams

Will Melo be a Knick before trade deadline? No