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Sunday, April 20, 2014

Knicks 2006 Preview Part II

Small Forward/Shooting Guard: New York has some depth at the swingman spots, as the only Knick that can’t play both spots is the rail thin Jamal Crawford. Newly acquired Quentin Richardson hasn’t played much with the team due to injury. Reportedly he’s back practicing with his new teammates, but it’s unknown whether he’ll be used at the 2 or the 3. So far Penny Hardaway has been the benefactor of Richardson’s hamstring, and he could find a role in Brown’s rotation as a perimeter defender. Hardaway still has good court vision, but his shooting has deteriorated to the point where it has become a liability. I would imagine that this would be a temporary solution, because Penny’s $16M expiring contract will be too much temptation for Isiah to resist (see the Charlton Heston comment from Part I). Vegas odds are 5:1 against Hardaway remaining a Knick by the trade deadline.

With all the excitement over Eddy Curry, Jerome James, Larry Brown, and the three drafted rookies, it seems that Trevor Ariza has become the forgotten man in New York. As a second round pick, no one expected much from him, but last year Ariza might have been the lone bright star in what was a dark season for the Knicks. This season he has a year of experience under his belt, an improved team, and one the best coaches in the game. I don’t want to go as far to say this is a critical year in Ariza’s development, but he won’t find a better environment to improve himself. The same could be said of Jamal Crawford. While he’s still young, he’s approaching that age where players stop showing improvement. If Jamal can’t put it together under Brown, he’ll never do so.

I’ve talked time and time again about Isiah’s ability to find young talent. Like a miner in a dark cave, Zeke may have found another gem in Matt Barnes. I have a special scouting report from Chief KnickerBlogger Talent Evaluator, David Crockett:

Barnes can start or come off the bench. He has always been an underrated defender – good feet, long arms, and just a little more athletic than you think he is. Perhaps most importantly, he doesn’t need the ball to make an impact. Barnes is a very good passer. He runs the floor and boards. He does all the hustle stuff, and unlike Tim Thomas he’s good at defensive rotations. That help will be critical as Marbury and Crawford continue to feel their way into their roles.

I know Brown has been angling for his guy, the ancient George Lynch, but i think Barnes will grow on him and stay in the rotation even after Quentin Richardson gets healthy.

If Barnes is the real deal (and I have no reason to doubt Dr. C.) then it’ll be all the more reason to trade Hardaway. On second thoughts make those odds 10:1 in favor of Isiah trading Penny. The obvious choice is Richardson at small forward and Crawford at shooting guard. Earlier I said that Jamal would find his way to Brown’s dog house, and I’ll stand by that statement. Don’t be surprised if Isiah finds a way to upgrade the position, or if Ariza, Barnes, and Hardaway steal Crawford’s minutes at the 2 to provide a better defensive alignment.

Coach: New York’s biggest upgrade might not see any time on the court. Larry Brown gives the Knicks their first real coach since Jeff Van Gundy. Although you won’t see Brown buffing the floor holding onto opposing player’s ankles, his presence will be felt on the court as if he was doing just that. The Knicks don’t have a particularly good defensive team, but Larry Brown will get every bit of effort possible out of his players on that end of the court. While Brown’s wanderlust will eventually get to him and the Knicks will be worse off when he goes, the Garden faithful should enjoy their hometown coach while they have him.

Outlook: I’ll start with the most pessimistic view. Eddy Curry’s heart sidelines him for good, and Quentin Richardson’s back keeps him from playing more than 40 games. Jerome James tries to eat the $30M the Knicks gave him and Channing Frye is too soft to man the center. Isiah panics and trades Hardaway & David Lee for Mike Olowokandi and instantly gives him a 6 year $45M extension. Trevor Ariza and Nate Robinson spend the year at the end of the bench, as Brown has Isiah grab Lynch & Eric Snow for their leadership abilities. Their traded unprotected 2006 pick wins the draft lottery & turns into Andrea Bargnani, the next Dirk Nowitzki.

The best case scenario might start with Eddy Curry and Stephon Marbury making the All Star team. Isiah Thomas is able to turn Malik Rose and Penny Hardaway into Dan Gadzuric, Danny Fortson, and a first round pick. The two became expendable because of the rapid development of Frye, Lee, Ariza and Barnes. Brown makes the Knicks one of the top defensive teams in the league, and they take the Atlantic. The Knicks use home field advantage in the first round to trounce the injury ridden Pistons. In the second round they face the Cavaliers and Trevor Ariza gains national prominence on his ability to shut down LeBron James. Against the Heat, Shaq inexplicably wanders on the court to break up a fight between Dwayne Wade and Nate Robinson. All three are suspended, which allows the Knicks to advance to the Finals.

Reality lies somewhere in between, the Knicks only won 33 games last year, and I think improving by 8 and making the playoffs seems to be reasonable given all that is involved. 41-41 and a first round whipping.

7 comments on “Knicks 2006 Preview Part II

  1. KD

    I and II, great stuff. Great stuff.

    Very interested to see if Zeke can find a taker for JC. Someone has to be desperate. Like, Toronto/Atlanta-desperate.

    Once you understand his limitations, you guys are gunna love Antonio Davis. I’ve come around on Frye, he looks like a damn good Pac-10 pick an’ popper.

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  3. eddietours

    hello am i boston fan i have to say the knick are now much improve from last year hope you guys have a fun season lets see if this two team can one day become powerhouse again.btw stupid troll

  4. Ricky

    Last season I kept hoping Denver would get desperate enough for a 2 that they’d agree to Crawford for Nene or Camby (wishful thinking, I know). I have the same wish but it’s transferred from one of their 5s to one of their 1s.

    Come on Kiki, what cha gonna do with all them there point guards?

  5. Ted Nelson

    The problem with trading Jamal Crawford at the moment is that you probably won?t get much in return. If he breaks out and realizes his potential in the next couple years and all the Knicks get in return is a bad or expiring contract, and/or have to trade other young talent with him, it could prove to be a very ill advised move.

    Sure Crawford’s window for development is closing, but Larry Hughes (a player with some similarities to Crawford) didn’t really breakout until 2003-2004 at 25 years old. And that was on a 25-win team, so maybe he didn’t really breakout until last season at 26.

    Another indication that there is still hope for Crawford is that the most similar players (according to basketball-reference.com) at age 24 were Van Exel, Kirk Hinrich, and Jason Terry. At 23 he was most comparable with Rex Chapman and Spreewell, and at 22 Terrell Brandon and Kerry Kittles were 2nd and 3rd. That the most comparable seasons to Crawford?s by age are not getting worse may offer evidence that he is developing at a normal rate (unlike someone like Tim Thomas who was most similar to Dirk and Clyde in his first two season but by age 24 was most comparable to Chris Morris). I think you could make the case that while Crawford does not offer much as a weak team’s sole first or second option, on a more talented team he might be a nice piece (similar to Hughes, Terry, Kittles, and Van Exel).

    On the other hand, if Jamal does not improve his defense and shot-selection/shooting %, moving him now could save the Knicks from being stuck with a shorter (although more productive and consistent) Tim Thomas until 2010.

    I only assume that Crawford wouldn?t bring much in return given the holes in his game and the length/size of his contract. Although with his talent he must have some fans out there. I remember always hearing Crawford to Seattle trade rumors and the Sonics have a few good rebounders. Denver might also be a possibility given their lack of quality at the 2, overabundance of defensive minded ?pure? PGs, and even more so now with their need for depth inside. I?m sure the situation will become more clear as we approach the trade deadline: we?ll know more about Crawford?s value and players signed last off-season become tradable.

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