Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Knicks 121, Pistons 100

Detroit Pistons 100 Final
Recap | Box Score
121 New York Knicks
Carmelo Anthony, SF 32 MIN | 10-18 FG | 5-5 FT | 2 REB | 3 AST | 29 PTS | +20

Another day, another cartoonishly explosive (and efficient) opening quarter for Anthony, who managed to weather a full 48 without goading a zebra into T-baggin’ him for the third consecutive game. Melo wasn’t just hitting his shots; they never so much as grazed the rim, instead sending again and again the net snapping up with a lion-tamer’s lash.

In what can only be seen as an encouraging development, Melo managed to pump the breaks nicely the proceeding stanzas, bypassing what would’ve been totally logical heat checks in lieu of better looks from teammates at wing and corner. The isolation D was noticeably more fleet-footed, although a handful of switches found Melo slackjawed and tardy. The turnovers (seven tonight, 20 in the last three games) are becoming something of a concern – surprising given Melo’s reasonable career rate and above-average handle. Many of them are coming on tin takes, which I suppose is the give to his aggressive takes of late. But the fort’s holding is the greater narrative here, and Melo’s out-the-gate stampeded has been nothing short of a marvel to behold. It seems even Anthony himself is starting to buy into the hype, telling Tina Cervasio before heading into the locker room at half time that he was “just getting started.” Holy hell is that scary and wow do I hope so.

Ronnie Brewer, SF 14 MIN | 1-2 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS | -13

Brew’s minutes – and resulting production – have been on a steady decline the past five games, meaning either his knee’s bothering him or he keeps lifting Woody’s eyebrow wax to make locker room Christmas candles. It’s reasonable to assume Coach is looking to keep Ronnie fresh ahead of tonight’s showdown in Brooklyn, where our stopgap wing will have his hands full with Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace, MarShon Brooks, and the reast of the guard-heavy Nettes. Johnson in particular promises to be a delicious tilt for Brewer, mostly because they’re both from Arkansas and I assume they’ll have some sort of handshake bet where the loser has to wear a tiara to the Little Rock Waffle House next summer.

Tyson Chandler, C 32 MIN | 3-4 FG | 7-8 FT | 7 REB | 0 AST | 13 PTS | +11

You all see what we’re talking about vis-à-vis Tyson perhaps / possibly / maybe / damnit please no / seriously I’ll drown myself / maybe being hurt, right? The not jumping for rebounds; the slow as snailshit rotations; the deep fried hands on entry passes – this just isn’t the same “I’mma beat you stupid then make you braid my beard and tassle it with your teeth” Chandler to which we’ve grown so comfortably accustomed. Love seeing his living being made at the rim, however, and Tyson doubtless did a nice job keeping Bob Lanier reincarnate – Greg Monroe (12 points, five bounds) – in reasonable check. Lately it’s been more a matter of starting slow than any conceivable wire-to-wire sluggishness, which I guess is reason enough to temper the tantrums, at least for the moment.

Jason Kidd, PG 25 MIN | 2-5 FG | 0-0 FT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 6 PTS | +10

Kidd’s hands (heretofore Weapons of Mass Deflection) were all over the joint, slapping afoul would-be shots, nabbin’ boards, ricocheting the ball to its intended destination, and – thank God – not hitting things or people or steering SUVs into CableVision telephone poles. It’s a Midas touch seldom seen amongst even the best of the best NBA ballers – let alone those closing in on birthday cards and hats and shirts and coffee mugs and colostomy bags with terrible jokes on them – and which has its outlet in shot clock-beating threes that touch every inch of the rim twice before touching twine’s bottom. He’s often a liability in defensive isolation (off quick cuts, on post-ups, etc.), but his uncannily active presence on both the offensive and defensive wings continues to defy both logic and at least three seasons worth of evidence. His minutes might take a bit of a dive once Shump suits up and starts whittling toothpicks out of dudes, but hopefully that just means fresher springs down the season’s stretch.

Raymond Felton, PG 32 MIN | 6-14 FG | 1-2 FT | 4 REB | 10 AST | 14 PTS | +20

Some early lift-less shanks and unfortunate off-ball mismatches on D looked like they’d make for a shaky Sunday outing for Ray Ray, but damnit if The Bulldog didn’t bite back, churning out an otherwise steadfast matinee showing most folly-free. The timely threes are becoming clockwork calling cards – staving off Detroit’s early second half run was just the latest example – which amounts to about as much clutch as we’re asking of our burly quarterback.

Rasheed Wallace, PF 22 MIN | 5-10 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 REB | 0 AST | 15 PTS | +17

I know it’s only been one game, but damn it we missed you, Sheed. Yes, even the off-the-top-left corner first shot. And the nursing home rotations. And the technical for yelling during a free throw. And the Saran wrap over the visiting locker room toilets.

With respect to the interior D, I know it’s unrealistic to expect Chandler-like rotations and help in the paint, and despite some anchor-drawn feet, Wallace has been pretty good about making up for it with some truly splendid limb flailing. Part of the problem is a matter of overconfidence, particularly with respect to bigs (i.e. Monroe) with superior quicks but rather average jumpers, to whom Sheed is getting way too close, making him vulnerable to drives. The late barrage of threes more than made up for the old fogey fails, of course, but what’s this about wearing a Detroit jacket to the game? I’ve cut people for less.

Steve Novak, SF 27 MIN | 5-11 FG | 3-3 FT | 2 REB | 0 AST | 18 PTS | +15

Stevak’s cares nothing for your Protestant moderation! He doesn’t just bounce back from a truly woeful grip of games where each bottom-destined shot appeared to be plucked at the last possible second by invisible string – he buries five of seven (it would’ve been six of eight had it not been for a bogus offensive foul call on Melo), AND registers a swipe of journeyman Corey Maggette – he’s somehow played for 49 of the league 30 teams – and a block on rookie Kim English in the game’s waning moments. More importantly, the shot look less hurried, the follow-through tried and true. A momentum-shifter, to be sure.

Chris Copeland, SF 5 MIN | 1-3 FG | 1-2 FT | 0 REB | 0 AST | 3 PTS | +2

DNP RECAPPER DOESN’T CARE

Marcus Camby, C 5 MIN | 0-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 3 REB | 0 AST | 0 PTS | +5

With no injuries, family illnesses or court dates to speak of, Woody’s assertions that not playing Camby was merely a matter of “conditioning” was becoming increasingly untenable. Over the preceeding few games, I’d actually come up with my own list of potential reasons why our Prodigal Son wasn’t getting more burn:

1) Lifted Sheed’s “can of Altoids”
2) Lifted Sheed’s “film canister of camera film”
3) Lifted Sheed’s “prescription jar of antibiotics that was seven years old but that shit stays fresh trust me”
4) Lifted Sheed’s “vegetarian sandwich full of vegetables”
5) He’s pregnant

Pablo Prigioni, PG 10 MIN | 1-2 FG | 1-1 FT | 0 REB | 2 AST | 3 PTS | -1

It was said that inhabitants of late 18th century Konigsberg, Germany used to set their watches to when famed philosopher Immanuel Kant would walk by their house or storefront…..

… I totally forget where I was going with this. Oh right! I’m starting to set my cell phone clock or whatever to Prigs’ first attempted swipe – typically off an in-bound play along the opponent’s baseline. It’s remarkable, really, especially considering this age of panoptical data; it’s as if these teams really don’t watch game tape, and don’t know that at first opportunity Twiggy Prigs is going to hook around your would-be inbound recipient like a goddam boa constrictor and inhale the ball.

Anyway, that’s about the extent of Pabs’s contributions today, which was otherwise quite unremarkable. He’s still letting smaller, stouter guards push him well off the preferred point of attack, forcing the diminutive Argentine to start the play late and make quick, seldom ideal reads. It’s beyond respite that the future holds a much more limited role for him, but it’ll be interesting to see what he can do with a big as skilled and dynamic as Stat setting picks and freeing up space and probably calling him Boblo.

James White, SG 5 MIN | 1-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 3 PTS | +1

LESS THREES AND MORE ILL-ADVISED DANGEROUS DUNKS FROM HALF-COURT PLZ

J.R. Smith, SG 31 MIN | 3-8 FG | 8-8 FT | 10 REB | 5 AST | 15 PTS | +18

It’s no accident that Earl’s played like fermented dogshit in every one of the Knicks’ losses thus far, so it was nice to see him pump the breaks a bit and settle in to a jack-of-all-trades mojo he’d probably be really good at, if only he’d embrace it. He took it to the tin (and was rewarded with throws in the process), beasted the boards, and was a goddam plague on the defensive end, in the process erasing the nightmarish memories of three games spent wading in his own crestfallen ego. I for one think tomorrow night will cull a signature game from our Spirographed scion – and some really tremendous casual sex, too, probably.

Five Things We Saw

  1. I’d originally planned on attending and covering the game, which would’ve been my first taste of a Sunday Garden matinee. And I’m kind of glad I didn’t, to be honest (though I missed nachos with Mike Kurylo), because Sunday crowds are either 1) way too drunk from the night before or 2) not drunk enough on an early Sunday afternoon to carry much in the way of energetic clout….. What’s that? Three-quarters of those in attendance were underaged children? Do they not serve Arbor Mist in the garden? Nyquil?…. Laudanum?
  2. The Bockers’ bout with the turnover bug proved a quick setback, as Melo’s game-high six cough-ups were the rare exceptions to an otherwise mistake-free affair (11). There must be something about watching Woodson and Jim Todd and Herb Williams waddling through their requisite sprints that really keeps our guys focused. It’s probably the trail of coachin’ gravy they make Cope mop up or something.
  3. The defensive intensity and rotations, though slightly improved, did so for one reason and one reason alone: the Pistons run a pretty terrible offense. Which makes getting burned back door – something that happened on at least ten occasions throughout the contest – that much more maddening. We pull this shit tomorrow, Brooklyn’s liable to hang a buck fifty on us, and maybe more. I think it’s foolish to have expected us to reign supreme in defensive efficiency wire to wire, but I have a hard time believing we’re as bad in that department as we’ve showed the last handful of outings.
  4. Apparently there was a child dunk contest at half time. I don’t know, I wasn’t there – this is just what Mike tells me. Nate Robinson snuck in with a McCaulay Culkin mask and won.
  5. Boy, we needed that like a hooker needs a friend — “home cookin’” doesn’t do near the proverbial justice, especially considering we have yet to figure out what the hell Marcus Camby was feeding this team Thursday afternoon (undercooked crab cakes? Fried cat food? Sonic?). This would’ve been a classic trap game in years past — the kind of must-win weekend tilt we’d routinely delude ourselves into notching a surefire W, only to watch our troops trip over their own clubbed-out dicks for 48 minutes. ‘Twas only a matter of time before Woody’s unbroken streak of ZERO back-to-back losses was upended, and sure enough we’ll likely see our boys tank three straight at some point over the few years. Still, we regrouped, re-loaded, and took it to a bad team for a win we had to have. It’s not a game-changer, and it sure as shit isn’t a panacea for large-looming wrenches (defense, rebounding, and techs, in that order). But it wasn’t a loss, damnit. It wasn’t a loss. I think Julius Caesar said that.

36 comments on “Knicks 121, Pistons 100

  1. Thomas B.

    “I’d originally planned on attending and covering the game, which would’ve been my first taste of a Sunday Garden matinee. And I’m kind of glad I didn’t, to be honest (though I missed nachos with Mike Kurylo), because Sunday crowds are either 1) way too drunk from the night before or 2) not drunk enough on an early Sunday afternoon to carry much in the way of energetic clout….. What’s that? Three-quarters of those in attendance were underaged children? Do they not serve Arbor Mist in the garden? Nyquil?…. Laudanum?”

    Hmmm. Could it be that the crowd found the Sunday matinee blowout against the lowly Pistons a tad, gee what’s the word I’m looking for here, boring? Nah. I’m sure today was “Troll Appreciation Day” at the Garden. Only trolls could find a game such as this boring. Right fellas?

    Nice recap.

  2. Z-man

    looking ahead, lots of the next 16 games on the schedule should excite even the disinterested Thomas B. I would say that anything at or over 10-6 would be acceptable. I predict that we end 2012 at 21-9. Not really feeling us as a 60+ win team right now, more like 55 or so.

  3. jon abbey

    Z-man:
    Not really feeling us as a 60+ win team right now, more like 55 or so.

    agreed with this, 60+ will need quite a level of sustained focus plus a fluid reintegration of Amar’e and Shumpie, and not many other injuries.

    FWIW, NY has now played 324 regular season games in the last 4+ seasons, and this was only their 28th win by 20 or more over that time.

  4. BigBlueAL

    jon abbey: agreed with this, 60+ will need quite a level of sustained focus plus a fluid reintegration of Amar’e and Shumpie, and not many other injuries.

    FWIW, NY has now played 324 regular season games in the last 4+ seasons, and this was only their 28th win by 20 or more over that time.

    The most shocking of those wins being in March of 2010, a 34 pt win in Dallas.

  5. PD

    great write up. point 3 i thought was pretty spot on.

    the pistons half court offense is umm… bad. there is is no other other way to frame it. not much silver lining to have. monroe can pass some. but in the half court they are so slow and seemingly disorganized. the knicks rotations were pretty good i guess. but some of those back door cuts the knicks let up were frustrating to watch. but whatever. the knicks did a fine job against a team which was obviously over matched in the half court on both ends of the floor.

    when the pistons bothered to get out in transition they gave the knicks some problems. which i still think this team is vulnerable. why a less talented team like the pistons would even try to play into the knicks type of game is beyond me. they should get out and run and hope for the best. might as well lose by 20 in a frantic way then just being boring.

    that being said i really want to see this team against the bobcats. has anyone else really watched them? with their gimmicky defensive schemes (zone presses, weird match up zones) and how they just run and attack the rim i wonder how the knicks will react. they wont see that type of thing in the playoffs but it will be interesting to see how they adjust to really being pushed. the bobcats give up soooo many corner 3s (due to their weird defenses) so i think the knick should win every game against them but i think it will be fun to watch.

  6. PD

    also. i think andre drummond will be a good nba player. i saw him a bit at uconn last year and never would have thought he was going to be a top 10 pick. i was slightly shocked. though i see some improvement. so much more active on the boards and boxing out. the guy is a athletic freak. he seems like his conditioning could be better. he does some silly rookie stuff. he is 19 and all. i wouldnt be surprised in a 4 years or so if everything goes well he is a borderline all-star. he has a long way to go of course. but advanced stat show some interesting things (going into today):

    ws/48: .199
    wp/48: .351
    TS%: .633
    ORB%: 15.9

    small sample sizes. though it shows he should be getting more minutes. if just for the sake for experience and development.

  7. jon abbey

    yeah, I told my Pistons fan friend after the game that they need to move Drummond into the starting lineup and sit Maxiell ASAP. the only future they have is the core of Knight/Monroe/Drummond, so they might as well see if they can play together ASAP.

  8. PD

    agree. not sure how i feel about knight though. watched him some last year and a couple games this year when houston played them and today. he can shoot the 3 ball well. and he can penetrate alright it seems when he wants to. it doesn’t seem he is much of a conventional point guard. isnt the athletic enough to be that westbrook/rose type player either. and has a less of a clue on the pick and roll then either of them. do any of the synergy guys can put up some stats to back this up? his advanced stats suck pretty much.

    he is young. you are right. throw all 3 of them out there and see what happens. monroe could do a decent approximation of a marc gasol high post thing. put drummond down low. see is knight can develop. maybee they have a bit of a really poormans memphis thing going. who knows.

  9. ruruland

    Nice posts and recap, as always.

    PD, my general impression is that the Knicks entire team defense is out of whack. The constant switching has become so predictable that teams are waiting for it and exploiting it. Instead of just letting the mismatches play out,the Knicks are double teaming every mismatch and creating really easy situations.

    Remember when Zach Lowe observed that the Knicks had the highest percent of isolation attempts against it last year. He hypothesized that it was because the Knicks isolation offense somehow became contagious for the other team.

    Well, I think te biggest reason the Knicks opponents went into so much isolation is because of the switching defense.

    The basic premise of a switching defense is to force teams out of continuity plays and to beat you with individual play.

    Instead of just letting the isolations and post-ups play out with help at the basket, the Knicks are doubling the mismatches and getting exposed in all matter of ways — penetration, open 3s, offensive rebounds.

    Some of this to me is Jason Kidd and Tyson Chandler trying to do too much.

    A lot of the Knicks defensive struggles stem from very poorpoint of attack defense.

    Some of it’s been caused by overaggressiveness by the guards, wings and Chandler.

    It needs to get worked out, but it may take a few practice days.

    Also, Brewer had another poor defensie game today.

    I’d be shocked if he started tomorrow.

    It’ll likely be Sheed.

  10. ruruland

    Carmelo Anthony currently has a .575 TS % on usage over 33%.

    In the the 66 years the NBA has been in existence, there have only been 69 individual seasons where a player had a .575 TS% or higher on usage of 30% or higher.

    Here is the list:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=ts_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=.575&c2stat=usg_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=30&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

  11. jon abbey

    PD:
    agree. not sure how i feel about knight though. watched him some last year and a couple games this year when houston played them and today. he can shoot the 3 ball well. and he can penetrate alright it seems when he wants to. it doesn’t seem he is much of a conventional point guard. isnt the athletic enough to be that westbrook/rose type player either. and has a less of a clue on the pick and roll then either of them. do any of the synergy guys can put up some stats to back this up? his advanced stats suck pretty much.

    he is young. you are right. throw all 3 of them out there and see what happens. monroe could do a decent approximation of a marc gasol high post thing. put drummond down low. see is knight can develop. maybee they have a bit of a really poormans memphis thing going. who knows.

    yeah, I mean Knight’s still 21 for a few more weeks. I don’t think any of those guys will end up as a franchise player, but at least start them all together and see what you’ve got. if nothing else, it will help make things more clear for next year’s presumably high draft pick.

  12. ruruland

    Wow, when we input a minimum of 42 games played in a season for the 575/30 usage, it’s only been done 41 times.

    Check out the names on that list.

    Of the 41 seasons of guys who played at least 42 games with a TS% of .575 and usage of 30 or more, Jordan did it 6 times, Shaq 8, Lebron James 4, Wade twice, Malone 9, Bird 1, Durant 3, Robinson 1, Bryant 2, Bernard King 1, Yao Ming 1, Pierce 1.

    We could be in the process of witnessing a historical offensive year for Anthony, one that would put him that class of the all-time greats.

    Of note, only 4 players in NBA history have had a TS% of .575 or higher with a usage of 33% or higher. There have been 41 individual seasons with 33% or higher usage.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=usg_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=33&c3stat=gs&c3comp=gt&c3val=42&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

  13. PD

    ruruland:
    Nice posts and recap, as always.

    PD, my general impression is that the Knicks entire team defense is out of whack. The constant switching has become so predictable that teams are waiting for it and exploiting it. Instead of just letting the mismatches play out,the Knicks are double teaming every mismatch and creating really easy situations…..

    i agree with alot of this. i don’t like to get into posting about the knicks heavily switching defensive schemes because they are real hard to illustrate without video. but you are correct. the knicks switch alot. it makes sense with melo at the 4 since he can guard a number of positions, its not quite as predicable as it was under MDA last year. but they are susceptible to smart teams exploiting it. novak got caught on a few mismatches against the pistons but did pretty well considering his defensive shortcomings.

    as i said the half court defense im not really worried about right now. they are good. melo is in a better position defensively at the 4 , jr is is more locked in and all the new players are smarter defensive players. trading kidd, felton, brewer (while he has been spotty the last few games), sheed from TD, bill walker, a rookie shump, bibby, and so on will improve a defense alot. they know their assignments better since woodson seems to stress it more to them(keep in mind i like MDA. this was a drawback with him i admit) and they are just more experienced.

    my main concern is transition defense and when a team can take them out of the their schemes i really wonder how they will react. dallas pushed the pace, houston somewhat as well and the spurs even though the knicks pulled it out. i think a quick hitting half court offense will cause the knick problems. but they have been great and its only 12 games.

  14. PD

    though ruru,

    do you think melo will actually achieve 575 TS/30 usg? a few games ago he was in the lower/mid part of the .500s. you also said harden wouldn’t come close to his TS from last year. while a .660 is pretty rediculous at around a 30% usg. he is 585 at a 28.9 usg after a string of bad games a while ago. are you willing to admit he could do this as well?

  15. PD

    also ruru,

    in my post about the knicks defense. i neglected to talked about their lazy point of attack defense. that has been true the last couple of games. i think they will be fine though. im not about to freak out about that after a few games. shump will help with that alot .though he might affect a bunch of things (pick and roll defense, youthful mistakes in rotation, shot selection, bad finishing sometimes… i like him. dont flame me).

  16. PD

    speaking of shump. i will ruffle some feather here. i know the knicks want to win now and there is always talk about trading amare.

    what about gasol, blake, either a trade exception or some other fodder for

    amare, novak, shump.

    novak cant be traded until feb i think. i dont know if i would do this trade. though i keep thinking gasol would do some real damage with what woodson has put together. and you would have to give some value back to the lakers for gasol.

  17. ruruland

    PD:
    also ruru,

    in my post about the knicks defense. i neglected to talked about their lazy point of attack defense. that has been true the last couple of games. i think they will be fine though. im not about to freak out about that after a few games. shump will help with that alot .though he might affect a bunch of things(pick and roll defense, youthful mistakes in rotation, shot selection, bad finishing sometimes… i like him. dont flame me).

    I love Shump. I think people will be surprised at how good of an all-around player he’ll likely be by March or April. I think he’ll end up being an upgrade over Brewer.

    I think in this system and culture he will thrive. Statistically, a lot of his inefficiency was tied to his horrible shot selection.

    think for a variety of reasons that will change this year, and I think he’ll finish better (I look at last year as a fluke in regards to all of the explosive plays he somehow didn’t finish.)

  18. ruruland

    PD:
    though ruru,

    do you think melo will actually achieve 575 TS/30 usg? a few games ago he was in the lower/mid part of the .500s. you also said harden wouldn’t come close to his TS from last year. while a .660 is pretty rediculous at around a 30% usg. he is 585 at a 28.9 usg after a string of bad games a while ago. are you willing to admit he could do this as well?

    I think if Melo starts getting calls at the rates he normally has throughout his career, yes, he’ll set his career high in TS% and be in the .575 or above range.

    Even when his efficiency was hovering in the low .500s a few games back I said he was getting the kinds of looks that portend high/elite efficiency.

    With the work he’s put in on the catch-and-shoot 3 as we talked about prior to the Olympics, I have little doubt he breaks and possibly shatters both his 3pt % mark and his 3pt fga attempt mark.

    Now you’re seeing guys having to run out to him which is creating some drives against rotation, which are typically very efficient.

    And he’s as svelt and strong as he’s ever been in his career. He’s getting by his defender at will.

    If the calls ever come, and I have to believe they will, then yeah, he’s going to have unbelievable numbers.

    His fta per 36 and per shot in paint is at a career low.

    Melo is getting roughly one free throw attempt per shot in the paint (69/70)

    Harden is getting 1.6 (80/128)

    Durant s getting nearly two free throw attempts per every shot in the paint (64/124)

    Kobe is getting exactly two free throw attempts per shot in the paint (56/112)

    If you take out the break-away uncontested inside attempts, of which Melo has an extremely low number, and just looked at half-court in-paint shots with contact, the numbers are even more disturbing.

    It’sclear something is going on, but I’d be shocked if it lasted all year.

  19. ruruland

    Here’s the most insane stat of the year.

    The Knicks are 28th in free throw attempts. Knicks have allowed the 2nd most free throw attempts.

  20. PD

    ruruland: I think if Melo starts getting calls at the rates he normally has throughout his career, yes, he’ll set his career high in TS% and be in the .575 or above range.

    Even when his efficiency was hovering in the low .500s a few games back I said he was getting the kinds of looks that portend high/elite efficiency.

    With the work he’s put in on the catch-and-shoot 3 as we talked about prior to the Olympics, I have little doubt he breaks and possibly shatters both his 3pt % mark and his 3pt fga attempt mark.

    Now you’re seeing guys having to run out to him which is creating some drives against rotation, which are typically very efficient.

    And he’s as svelt and strong as he’s ever been in his career. He’s getting by his defender at will……..

    i like the FTA per FG attempt in the paint stats. it is really interesting. i do wonder if its less about lack of calls but rather how he has done a great job of swinging the ball to weakside for a so called “hockey assist” which tilts the defense and leads to those wide open 3pt attempts that the knicks have been having so often.

    He has been a part of some weird no-calls. but i hate arguing over that stuff. i feel it will even out as long he stays aggressive and doesn’t whine so much to create (or exasperate) a reputation of complaining. it should be ok. he is till 8th in the nba for FTA/GM as per espn when i just checked.

    but you somewhat dodged my question. if you think melo can achieve a 575ts on 30 usg do you think harden can?

  21. ruruland

    PD: i like the FTA per FG attempt in the paint stats. it is really interesting. i do wonder if its less about lack of calls but rather how he has done a great job of swinging the ball to weakside for a so called “hockey assist” which tilts the defense and leads to those wide open 3pt attempts that the knicks have been having so often.

    He has been a part of some weird no-calls. but i hate arguing over that stuff. i feel it will even out as long he stays aggressive and doesn’t whine so much to create (or exasperate) a reputation of complaining. it should be ok.he is till 8th in the nba for FTA/GM as per espn when i just checked.

    but you somewhat dodged my question. if you think melo can achieve a 575ts on 30 usg do you think harden can?

    Yeah, if he continues to average 10 fta per game while taking the ball to the basket at roughly the same rate Melo does, sure he can come close to Durant like efficiency.

  22. PD

    ok cool. i wasn’t trying to fault melo for anything. i think he has played really well for the most part. in fact i think he has been focused more on using his really neat passing skills. good for him and i have been surprised. i think my prediction of melo would be around a 555TS%. so we are roughly close. maybe he will be around 575. if he stop whining to the refs and just plays i will be cool with it. i like how he has changed his game a bit.

    kobe has been a surprised as well (.653TS which will come down obviously). running more pick and rolls with MDA. it is fun to watch even though i kind of think he is an asshole. i assume he thinks he hes an asshole as well. he is so fucking smart though in a basketball sense sometimes. it annoys me.

    harden might be the best non PG pick and roll ball handler i have seen in some time. ginobili is the obvious comparison but its different. harden is so weird and efficient. he doesn’t surprise me with what he does. ginobili in his prime amazed me at at times. maybee that’s why people don’t buy into him at an “elite” player. he isnt amazing so to speak (in a conventional MJ way or something). but he is so weird and interesting. or at least an all star. this year or soon.

    i think he will be a bit above melo’s TS because as long he runs pick and roll after pick and roll. he is good at it. as long as his coaches dont keep trying to put him in iso so much.

    and somewhat ironically. i will guess kevin martin’s TS will be higher than both of them. who is the better player?

  23. Juany8

    PD, when you’re only shooting open 3′s, layups, and free throws, your TS% is going to be monstrous. Everyone noticed that Harden did only those things last year, nobody thought to ask why Harden had somehow figured out a way to avoid taking low efficiency shots. Then this year happened, and while he will still have a very good shooting efficiency, it is a HUGE downgrade over last year, and his turnovers per 36 minutes have gone up by like 50% since he took over as a main option.

    On the other hand, Kevin Martin is literally replicating Harden’s scoring numbers from last year, with a 66 TS% and around 3 turnovers. The Thunder really haven’t been much worse this year, they’re one of the few teams that hasn’t gotten blown out on the road at least (San Antonio, both LA teams, Miami, the Celtics, and the Knicks have had some truly awful losses, with the worst being when the Celtics lost to the Pistons by 20)

  24. max fisher-cohen

    Ruru, definitely agree with your observation about the defense. Nice point. Shumpert will help a lot here because it will give NY another rotation player who can defend 4 positions pretty well. Kidd and Felton are both better suited to guarding slower guards, and Prigioni is even worse. It will be interesting to see how much Shumpert affects the offense though as we likely won’t have 2 PGs on the floor when he’s in.

    I can’t really agree with you on anthony’s TS% being sustainable though as it’s completely built off his 42% 3pt percentage. If he was instead shooting only 36% from three (which would still be his second best year ever), his TS% would around 53%. I don’t mean to knock Anthony as, recent turnover spat notwithstanding, he’s passing the ball like we’ve never seen before. I just don’t think he’s the kind of player who can sustain such a high efficiency on a team that’s so dependent on him for shot creation. Inevitably, he’s going to be forced to take a few very low efficiency shots a game just because no one else on the Knicks can create his own shots.

  25. chrisk06811

    ruruland:
    Here’s the most insane stat of the year.

    The Knicks are 28th in free throw attempts. Knicks have allowed the 2nd most free throw attempts.

    does that mean…..ball DOES lie?
    Did STAT really get a T for yelling? What did he say?

  26. Juany8

    max fisher-cohen:
    Ruru, definitely agree with your observation about the defense. Nice point. Shumpert will help a lot here because it will give NY another rotation player who can defend 4 positions pretty well. Kidd and Felton are both better suited to guarding slower guards, and Prigioni is even worse. It will be interesting to see how much Shumpert affects the offense though as we likely won’t have 2 PGs on the floor when he’s in.

    I can’t really agree with you on anthony’s TS% being sustainable though as it’s completely built off his 42% 3pt percentage. If he was instead shooting only 36% from three (which would still be his second best year ever), his TS% would around 53%. I don’t mean to knock Anthony as, recent turnover spat notwithstanding, he’s passing the ball like we’ve never seen before. I just don’t think he’s the kind of player who can sustain such a high efficiency on a team that’s so dependent on him for shot creation. Inevitably, he’s going to be forced to take a few very low efficiency shots a game just because no one else on the Knicks can create his own shots.

    This could be countered by Melo simply getting to the line more like he deserves to, he also happens to miss or turn the ball over a lot when he gets smacked receives no call, lowering his shooting percentage in the paint. I also think Melo legitimately improved his 3 point shot, especially on spot ups, which he used to rush a lot. While 42% is probably a bit high, I really think he ends up at 38+% and ends up north of .560 TS%. He’s going to be hurt in advanced stats all year by the fact that he doesn’t get assists on a team that moves the ball this well and has other primary actions of attack (Felton-Chandler pick and roll has been extremely effective this season)

  27. Thomas B.

    ruruland:

    I love Shump. I think people will be surprised at how good of an all-around player he’ll likely be by March or April. I think he’ll end up being an upgrade over Brewer.

    I like Shumpert. I think he is a fantastic defender, but he isn’t as efficient as the players he’ll take minutes from.

    Look at the current TS% and eFG% of the Knicks back court players and the career numbers

    Smith: .550 TS% and .497 EfG% (.544 and .513)
    Kidd: .761 and .714 (.507 and .463)
    Brewer: .558 and .564 (.549 and .513)
    Felton: .523 and .515 (.498 and .496)

    Shumpert: .484 and .446

    Now none of the guys currently manning the Knicks backcourt is a terrible defender (I acknowledge that Brewer is playing more SF than guard), and each of them is showing far more efficiency than Shumpert has shown. So what exactly is to gain by replacing those minutes with a better defender who is a far less efficient player on offense?

    I’m not trolling or hating on Shump, as I said I like Shump. But if he shoots like he did last year, he simply can’t stay on the floor. Now maybe Shump will also show marked improvement in his efficiency as the rest of the backcourt has, but if he does not, should he play, and whose minutes should he take? As long as JR keeps playing as he has, there really is no argument for Shump to get his minutes, ditto Kidd. We know Shump shouldn’t run the point so Felton’s time looks safe. All that is left is Brewer, and for Shump to best Brewer without a big improvement on offense, Brewer needs to fall off offensively, or suffer an injury. And even if that happens, Shump has to play the 3 or Smith moves there and makes Shump the first 2 off the bench.

    That’s a lot of tinkering with a machine that is running pretty smoothly already wouldn’t you say? I’d love to see him pressuring the ball like last year, I just don’t know how to…

  28. johnno

    ruruland: . I think people will be surprised at how good of an all-around player he’ll likely be by March or April.

    I also love Shumpert and think that he has tremendous upside. I expect him to improve dramatically offensively in future years — but not this year. Has anyone thought about the fact that he hasn’t taken a jump shot in about 7 months? How exactly is his shooting supposed to improve if he’s not working on it? Shooting set shots and foul shots while re-habbing a bad knee will not make him a better jump shooter; spending a full off-season next year working on his jump shot will make him a better jump-shooter. He’ll help on defense this year, but I don’t expect him to take a big leap in offensive efficiency.

  29. Will the Thrill

    Brewer is bound to be worse offensively this year than he is now, with the 3 point shooting he has sustained somehow to begin this year. Also, Brewer hasn’t been what we thought he’d be on defense. With a drop in Brewer’s offense, I’d say that Shump should receive nearly all of his minutes.

    Thomas B.: All that is left is Brewer, and for Shump to best Brewer without a big improvement on offense, Brewer needs to fall off offensively, or suffer an injury.

  30. jon abbey

    actually all the NY beat writers seem convinced his jumper will be better once he’s back, although they never seem to go into details as to why.

  31. jon abbey

    oh, I missed Thomas B’s number-filled post of gibberish. Shumpert will be the starting SG when he comes back if his knee is OK, no matter what his TS% or STD% or NYPD% is. it’s unlikely NY’s top 11 guys will all be healthy at the same time, but if they are, Novak or Brewer will likely be the odd man out at backup SF:

    Chandler/Camby
    Amar’e/Wallace
    Melo/Novak or Brewer
    Shumpert/Smith
    Felton/Kidd

  32. johnno

    jon abbey: Shumpert will be the starting SG when he comes back if his knee is OK,

    Maybe eventually, but not right away. He’s going to jump from not playing in 8 or 9 months to playing 30 minutes a night? Not likely. He had major reconstructive surgery. More likely he will begin by playing spot minutes and gradually working his way back into the lineup. Maybe he’s playing 30 minutes by the 70th game of the season, but not before then.

  33. jon abbey

    I didn’t say he’ll be playing 30 minutes, I said he’ll be starting. JR will likely still get the bulk of the minutes for a while, Woodson’s going to have some very hard decisions if everyone’s healthy.

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