I think pretty much everyone agrees at this point that DEN is a 5-8 seed first round and out playoff team, no? if someone doesn’t, that’s what we should be debating. although they have beaten MEM twice already, so maybe that would be a good draw for them.

I think the West especially has been match-up central these past few years, where Team A can beat Teams B and C but can’t beat Teams D and E and Team B can beat Team D and C but not A and E, etc. Two years ago, there was one team that the Nuggets could not beat at all and that was the team that they got in the first round (the Thunder). They matched up better with the Lakers last year and took them to seven games. So yeah, Memphis is a good match-up for them but San Antonio kills them. I dunno about the other teams (I imagine everyone loses to OKC right now, though).

It seems to me that those rankings would be invalidated if they don’t adjust for expected PPP by position.

briand: Makes sense.From a subjective standpoint, I would think Kyrie is the better shooter, and Westbrook the better rebounder.Passing and slashing/finishing skills probably pretty close.You would think Westbrook would be the better defender too, but the defensive metrics really haven’t borne that out.

Irving was just about the worst defensive player in the league last year ranking 447th in ppp allowed per synergy. Westbrook wasn’t great- he ranked 280th- but solidly better than Irving. Both are defending much better this year with Irving slightly better but he’s only played 14 games so it’s a pretty small sample size. I’m sure having Varejao back has helped. He was really, really bad in the pnr against the Knicks so I’m not sure I’m ready to say he’s turned a corner defensively. Offensively, he’s been a shoot first guy- understandable given his teammates- so I haven’t seen a whole lot that makes me think he’s going to be able to run an offense like Paul, Rondo, Nash, etc… He’ll get assists because he’ll dominate the ball- a better Marbury, perhaps?- but whether he’s going to be more than a scoring point remains to be seen.

Frank: LOL fair enough.Actually, it’s quite amazing how close their numbers are, except that Kyrie is more efficient shooting the ball (by a lot):http://bkref.com/tiny/pJSdw

Makes sense. From a subjective standpoint, I would think Kyrie is the better shooter, and Westbrook the better rebounder. Passing and slashing/finishing skills probably pretty close. You would think Westbrook would be the better defender too, but the defensive metrics really haven’t borne that out.

briand: The guy you describe above sounds an awful lot like Westbrook, no?

LOL fair enough.
Actually, it’s quite amazing how close their numbers are, except that Kyrie is more efficient shooting the ball (by a lot):

http://bkref.com/tiny/pJSdw

flossy: Or it says you need to get a clue and think a little more critically about the metric you’re using.Last year the Knicks were a net negative with Anthony on the court.Does that tell you all you need to know about Carmelo Anthony?I know you watch Rocket games, you can’t possibly seriously believe that that team would be better without Harden.And yes, I know Toney Douglas is on the Rockets now, that’s exactly why I mentioned him by name–to illustrate the massive gulf between the player Melo and Harden are interacting with this year.You say that Harden makes Lin worse, but do you not also recall Lin played way better without Melo vs. with?What does that tell you about Melo vs. Harden?Nothing.

The Knicks offense was better with Melo on the floor last season than with him off, so I don’t know what you meant about that, and considering Melo had an awful, injury plagued season most of last year, as well as a stubborn coach that tried to stick him in a corner to shoot 3′s, I think it’s much more informative to look at Melo’s career wonder Woodson, under which the Knicks have been dominant even with Baron Davis and Raymond Felton shooting up bricks at a fantastic rate. The Knicks best stretch of last season came when Lin and Amar’e were healthy at the start of the Woodson era, so it’s fair to say that D’Antoni was just as big a problem as McHale is as far as making players worse by putting them in poor roles.

The problem is that you can’t consistently run an offense through Harden the way you can with Melo because he’s not as versatile. Against a team that’s amazing at trapping the pick and roll, Harden can’t really do that much with the ball, and neither can Lin.

Besides, even if they are close to each other as offensive players, it’s a massive difference on the defensive end

Frank: Re: Irving – he was obviously awesome in that game, but his overall game doesn’t really resemble Parker/Rondo/Westbrook at all. He’s almost like a much slightly more point-guard-ish and better shooting Monta Ellis IMHO. Or maybe a more refined but less overtly athletic Derrick Rose. Even in the game Saturday there was a lot of pounding the ball, going 1-on-1, etc, and at least at this young age, he’s all about scoring the ball. His assist rate (% of possessions that end in assist) is only 18.7, which would rank him behind, well, Monta Ellis. In fact, if you take PGs that play 25+ min/game (ie. starters), he’s dead last in assist rate:http://www.hoopdata.com/passingstats.aspx?team=%25&type=pg&posi=PG&yr=2013&gp=0&mins=25Yes, he’s not last on that list, but Shannon Brown, Foye, and Tyreke aren’t actually PGs, not sure why they are even represented here.Don’t get me wrong, I love that he’s 20 and can already score with a TS of 57 and a usage of 31, but he’s much more of a combo/scoring guard at this point.

The guy you describe above sounds an awful lot like Westbrook, no?

massive:
Harden isn’t making Lin play off the ball. That’s all Kevin McHale and his coaching staff. I think the Rockets would be better served if they ran their offense through Lin with Harden in the off ball role. How great would the Knicks offense be if we ran it through Melo and not Felton? Was Kobe Bryant making Steve Nash worse, or was it the Princeton offense? Was Dwight Howard making Pau Gasol worse, or was it D’Antoni trying to turn him into a floor spacer.

Here’s the thing about interaction effects: you cannot gauge them or properly assign value to one person for them. We know they exist, and their values vary from team to team. You cannot say Harden makes Lin worse as if that takes away from him as a franchise piece. Would Harden make Ty Lawson worse if he were a Rocket? I’m just saying that any attempt to make the grey area as black and white as statistics doesn’t seem to be one that makes sense.

That’s fair to an extent, but the point is you can’t run a pick and roll with them both at the same time. Harden is much better off the ball so there is some temptation to run the offense through Lin, but at the same time Harden is a pretty fantastic player in the pick and roll in his own right, but can’t do much else.

Coaches do a big part in determining how the players play, but it would be hard for any coach to simply move Harden off the ball full time. It’s also not James Harden’s fault that Lin can’t shoot and that he’s a poor pick and roll defender, even if the team might be a bit better overall putting Lin on the ball it’s not an ideal situation because of their respective weaknesses. The Felton and Melo situation works because Melo can run offense through the post if the Felton pick and roll is being shut down. Harden is amazing at pick and rolls but limited otherwise when he’s on the ball, as is Lin

Juany8: The Rockets offense is better when Harden is off the court than the Knicks offense is when Melo is off the court. I think that says all you need to know about their relative impact.

Or it says you need to get a clue and think a little more critically about the metric you’re using. Last year the Knicks were a net negative with Anthony on the court. Does that tell you all you need to know about Carmelo Anthony? I know you watch Rocket games, you can’t possibly seriously believe that that team would be better without Harden. And yes, I know Toney Douglas is on the Rockets now, that’s exactly why I mentioned him by name–to illustrate the massive gulf between the player Melo and Harden are interacting with this year. You say that Harden makes Lin worse, but do you not also recall Lin played way better without Melo vs. with? What does that tell you about Melo vs. Harden? Nothing.

Juany8: He’s a really nice scorer, I think he can become a top 5 PG overall although his defense is pretty bad. You’d probably want someone alongside to help facilitate a bit though, at the very least he needs some nice shooters to space the floor and allow him to do his thing. It’ll be interesting to see how he develops, although I think that Cleveland has done a pretty poor job drafting after that

I hated that Cleveland took Dion Waiters instead of Harrison Barnes, Andre Drummond, and Thomas Robinson. That was the dumbest pick since we took Jordan Hill (who has turned into a really good player for the Lakers, I should add). Irving seems to be chucking because he doesn’t trust anyone on his team to play well enough to get his team the win. I can’t say I blame him.