Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Knicks 100, Robertcats 98

New York Knicks 100 Final
Recap | Box Score
98 Charlotte Bobcats
Kurt Thomas, PF 5 MIN | 0-0 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 1 AST | 0 PTS | +3

KURT THOMAS ANAGRAM FUN: HOT MUSKRAT

Ronnie Brewer, SF 18 MIN | 3-8 FG | 1-2 FT | 5 REB | 0 AST | 9 PTS | +6

You know how whenever Novak catches the ball and sets you hear that gasp – couch solitary or arena collective, doesn’t really matter – and it’s like little a gaggle of angels are dancing in your stomach? I get the exact opposite reaction whenever Ronnie catches and starts eyeing the rim: My upper lip curls, my hands tighten, my dentures clench and my stomach feels like I just drank a gallon of curdled nacho cheese. Which is strange, because Brewer’s actually been hitting his shot at a decent clip. Ronnie gave us the requisite corner strike tonight, but was otherwise fairly ineffective on both ends of the floor.

Still, given how flat-footed the Knicks were down the stretch, you’d figure even an off offensive night wouldn’t be enough to keep Ronnie out of the fold. But alas, we caught not a whiff of the Brewmaster down the stretch. My surgeon’s instincts tell me the old leg knuckle had a bit of the Satan’s fire in it. I recommended he head over to Charlotte General and have the thing drained and all his teeth and eyes removed, just in case.

Carmelo Anthony, SF 38 MIN | 8-22 FG | 4-4 FT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 23 PTS | +4

Seeing that his primary checkers are two rookies and a tall white goof with a lobotomy haircut has to be like going out for gourmet Tapas for Melo. Twenty first-half points later – treys, aggressive takes, and impossible fall-away jumpers all rained true – our pencil-stache’d hero looked rarin’ for dessert and coffee… and like he’d be carrying the team and the training staff and all the Knicks fans in attendance out of the arena and to the Waffle House and then to the airport baggage claim.

Sadly, Melo’s second half was a total shit sandwich. The shots were mostly well advised; he just wasn’t getting the bounce. Then he decided to dive (unnecessarily, it should be noted – it was a shot clock violation) into the bench to save the ball in the game’s waning moments, lacerating his middle finger (that’s funny), and spending the rest of the game presumably having a Jetsons Band-Aid fastened to his digit. Hopefully he’s OK, because the mere thought of us going to battle in South Beach on the morrow without him makes my nose bleed instantly.

Tyson Chandler, C 35 MIN | 8-10 FG | 2-4 FT | 17 REB | 2 AST | 18 PTS | +10

For about 15 seconds late in the first quarter, Tyson Chandler was on pace to grab 42 rebounds. Forty-two. That would be forty more than I had in my rec game last night, and I play in a league where teams have names like Fromax, Bricklayers, and Burrrrrrrgers, you have to shell out $45 for a technical, and I once saw a dude get yelled at by his wife for not being home to watch the kids WHILE HE WAS PLAYING. Sadly, Chandler’s truly beastly first half (8 points, 10 boards) was tempered a bit by a handful of late rotations, though you could argue most of the blame went to the dudes waving the red blankets out on the perimeter.

Chandler was equally hugenormous in the second act, crashing the glass and swatting away a couple would-be backbreakers as the game wound down. The final line (it’s right up there next to Tyson’s name below the open porn tabs) would be mind blowing if it weren’t so routine. Seriously, I haven’t felt this spoiled since that one Christmas my gramma gave me money and not a 500-piece puzzle.

Raymond Felton, PG 36 MIN | 7-19 FG | 1-1 FT | 2 REB | 9 AST | 17 PTS | +8

I was told Felton had wrapped his hand in the Infinity Gauntlet prior to the game. That wasn’t the fucking Infinity Gauntlet. That right there was a roll of shitty rest stop toilet paper wrapped around a mortal human’s hand. Clearly I need to evaluate where I get my information.

Anyway, Ray played about as poorly as you’d expect someone who just doubled the size of their guide hand – unfortunate, considering he was playing in front of a good grip of family and friends (Ray’s from South Carolina and the game was in North Carolina, which are both near Florida). Here’s the thing, though: The same bulldog fire that compels Raymond to play through the pain (admirably, it must be said) can easily morph into overcompensation – too many rushed shots, out-of-control drives, and the like. Which is exactly what happened. Worse still, he had a tough time keeping the waterbuggy Kemba Walker in front of him, and left him free to build up too big a head of steam in transition.

…Then he took off the hand wrap, burned it, burned the ashes, drowned the burnt ashes, burned the wet ash mud, and subsequently started the second half with a pair of threes and some stout defensive stops. But his real contributions came down the stretch, when he just willed closed the void left by Melo’s untimely absence, tying the game at 98 with balls-out take to the rack. As Seth Rosenthal aptly pointed out, all of these miraculous end-of-game moments occured while Raymond’s infant son was out like a light on the sidelines. Thanks, son.

Rasheed Wallace, PF 13 MIN | 1-5 FG | 0-0 FT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 2 PTS | -8

If the relationship between he and Knick Knation was heretofore a honeymoon, Sheed’s just started banging the housekeepers in the hotel hot tub in the middle of the afternoon. The defensive engagement that even a few weeks ago seemed leaps and bounds ahead of anything he showed during his Boston run has devolved into him just shoving dudes out of the paint after committing lazy fouls. It would be silly to expect 70+ games of consistent play from a 38-year-old with gray nose fur, so I’m liable to let this latest stretch slide. Just…. Make a shot or something.

Steve Novak, SF 26 MIN | 3-8 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 9 PTS | -2

Pretty much every one of Steve’s looks was a clean one, though he only managed to connect on three of his eight tries. But we needed every one of them, damnit – even if he looked particularly sloth-like on defense.

Pablo Prigioni, PG 12 MIN | 1-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 2 PTS | -6

Kudos to Woodson for lightening the load on Prigs, he of THE GREATEST INTERNETPAGE SINCE NAKEDGIRLS.COM! Probably for the best anyway. Charlotte’s guards were just way too much for Prigs to handle, and given how tight the game was wire-to-wire, I’m kind of happy Woody didn’t follow through too much with his pre-game promise of extended minutes for the Pablo-Jason backcourt.

Jason Kidd, PG 25 MIN | 2-3 FG | 1-2 FT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 7 PTS | -1

With his head wound now a fashion statement (I’m wearing mine, where’s yours?), Kidd’s return paid both immediate and late-game dividends – Kung Fu swipes, brilliantly timed threes, and the now commonplace three-point-pump-fake-and-foul-draw. Even when shit got hairy and the tide beat back, it was impossible not to feel a very real, very deep inner sense of calm in knowing Kidd was out there scrappin’ and yellin’ and lovin’ every minute with this damn crew.

Legend has it that, in Pulp Fiction, the briefcase belonging to Marsalis Wallace actually contained the LA don’s soul, and that the Band-Aid on his head was from whence it escaped. Yeah. Head Band-Aids.

J.R. Smith, SG 32 MIN | 6-16 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 4 AST | 13 PTS | -4

This time J.R. just said “fuck it” and went out clubbing during team introductions, which turned out to be his most efficient performance in quite some time (five vodka tonics in 89 seconds, I’m told). He was totally useless on the court to start, however, save for a brief stretch during the team’s second quarter run when he followed up a nice take to the rim (I already sent him a text: “MORE PLZ”) with a steal at the other end.

It took until mid-way through the third quarter before Breen busted out his requisite “… off to such a solid start this season” mantra, and really I was pissed to even be hearing it at all. And it didn’t get much better anyway, as open look after open look — three in a row off deft kickes from Melo — proved errant. But then…. a key three…. a deflection…. ANOTHER DEFLECTION! TAKE IT TO THE TIN HOLY SHIT WHAT ARE YOU DOING YOU’RE LITERALLY RUNNING AWAY FROM THE BASKET ON A 2-ON-1 WHY?!?!?!? SERIOUSLY WHAT’S WRONG WITH HIM IS HE ON DRUGS OR WAIT WHY DOES HE HAVE THE BALL AGAIN TAKE IT TO THE HOLE DON’T YOU DARE PULL UP FOR THAT AWFUL…… *pee everywhere*

Five Things We Saw

  1. Luckily, the fact that tonight’s tilt constituted the front end of a back-to-back will render any handwringing over how and where we were exposed a brief affair. But know this: Up until about mid-way through the fourth quarter, we were getting our asses kicked on points in the paint – 40-24, to be exact. Even the final tally (52-40) says more about our propensity for desperation prowess than it does anything else. For most the of the game, the ‘Cats were getting to the tin almost at will, aided the Knicks’ slow and poor rotation and an inability to get back in transition. As with the Dirk-free Mavs, the Bobcats are exactly the kind of team that will give us trouble: Small, yes, but super athletic, super fast, and with a nose for how to take it hard, convert, or at the very least draw contact. Beware, ‘Bockers.
  2. In the absence of Boris Diaw, Gerald Henderson was more than happy to hoist the cake mantle of “Middling Knick Killer Emeritus” for the night (Contrary to @CardboardGerald’s assertion that Diaw was smoking STAT with “1MPH post moves” in last year’s skullfuckingly horrible home loss, I maintain that it only looked that slow because shit appears to slow down the closer you get to a black hole – IT’S SCIENCE.) It didn’t help that Henderson was returning after missing 14 games with nagging foot problems. Which, seriously, fuck that — Gerald Henderson has the highest vertical on the planet; those impossible rebounds, those uncanny drives, that ridiculous block on Chandler. It made absolutely no sense and perfect sense all at once. Luckily, we survived to tell about it.
  3. Leave it to Clyde to give a player a nickname completely by accident. During the pre-tip telecast, Clyde threw us all for a loop and – instead of butchering “Bismack Biyombo” (Bis-mark Bee-yawn-bone, Bee-snot Sousaphone, and Bee-smack Beyond-barn were all clearly in the running) – decided to put poor Michael Kidd-Gilchrist through the Walt Frazier Phonetic Slaughterhouse. Only this time the end result – Michael KILL (KILL!)-GILCHRIST — might actually end up yielding a useful nickname. I don’t know about you, but if someone introduced himself as KILLCHRIST, I’d run in the other direction as fast as I could.
  4. The Knicks got beat on the glass, from the stripe, from three, and from the field, and still won. The reason? They converted 23 points off of 14 Charlotte turnovers – many of those at key points in the second half, and four of them in the last 1:30. That’s it. That’s your ballgame. Well, that, and this (salutations to @JADubin5 for the reminder).
  5. Soon after the final buzzer sounded, I hit up Bobby Silverman on the g-chats, where I quipped that I had “no words” for what had hahahahappened seconds previous. He responded that I should just post a blank recap completely free of words. Believe me, I thought about it. But I also know that, the way things are going, we’re liable to have a game – probably sometime in the dead of March – even more bonkers and inexplicable and schizophrenic than this one. So best to save it for another time. All told, we came perilously close to the worst of possible worlds: We exert maximum effort, lose, fly to South Beach ragged as Rotty chew toys, and get our asses whipped on national television Thursday night. The last of which could very well happen – the Heat had their own let-down game against the lowly Buzzards, and they’ll no doubt be on a straight batblood diet until tipoff tomorrow. But even if we lose tomorrow, tonight’s absurd finish should serve as a pointed reminder that there are no ropes thick enough to trap this team.

128 comments on “Knicks 100, Robertcats 98

  1. TheRant

    Can we offer the ChandlerBot a higher grade than merely A+?

    I know the sports world loves to talk Melo and Amare as if they are Oscar and Felix, the main event, but Tyson Chandler seems again and again to be the most important pickup for the Knicks in the past few years. The man is just relentless.

    His stat line — 18 points on 80% shooting and 17 boards — doesn’t even begin to tell the story. (I guess you can’t really call it “shooting,” though, when Felton just tosses it up there and a 250 lb. man sends it hurtling towards earth.)

  2. BigBlueAL

    This is the first time the Knicks are 9 over .500 since finishing the 2000-2001 season at 48-34. Actually the Knicks hadnt even been 8 games over .500 since then too. Highest they got was 7 games over during the 30+ pt games streak by Amar’e when they got to 16-9 then again at 21-14 after killing the Suns in his return to Phoenix that same season. Pretty sad when you think about it lol.

  3. ruruland

    TheRant:
    Can we offer the ChandlerBot a higher grade than merely A+?

    I know the sports world loves to talk Melo and Amare as if they are Oscar and Felix, the main event, but Tyson Chandler seems again and again to be the most important pickup for the Knicks in the past few years.The man is just relentless.

    His stat line — 18 points on 80% shooting and 17 boards — doesn’t even begin to tell the story.(I guess you can’t really call it “shooting,” though, when Felton just tosses it up there and a 250 lb. man sends it hurtling towards earth.)

    His best game of the season. By far IMO. His defense outside of foul trouble was great. No chance of winning this game without him.

    Nice recap as always, Jim.

  4. jon abbey

    nice to see him rebounding better in recent games also, he really needs to keep that up game in and game out.

  5. Frank O.

    On the ‘Cats, they lost the game because they are young and they got flustered by the pressure. Period.
    They remind me, in their youth only, of our Knicks from the Gallo, Chandler, Mosgov, days when you could see potential, but they were too young to win consistently.
    By late this season, people won’t like playing Kemba at all. He reminds me of John Wall, only with a clue.

  6. Thomas B.

    “Soon after the final buzzer sounded, I hit up Bobby Silverman on the g-chats, where I quipped that I had ‘no words’ for what had hahahahappened seconds previous. He responded that I should just post a blank recap completely free of words.”

    People ask me to do that all the time. I’m pretty sure they aren’t joking.

    Nice recap.

  7. ephus

    There’s nothing that JR Smith can’t do on a basketball court.

    There’s nothing that JR Smith won’t do on a basketball court.

    Three seconds of inspiration

  8. jon abbey

    daJudge:
    I was watching last night’s game with my wife, celebrating my birthday.Thank you Earl.

    happy belated b-day! mine is tomorrow, so hopefully my win will come tonight (or Saturday, really I’d take either coupled with a win against DEN at home on Sunday).

  9. Frank

    the funniest thing about that ending was that I’m pretty sure JR thought he was doing the heady thing by backing the ball out when they had the 2-on-1 — but of course the game was tied. He totally thought we were ahead at that point!

    Pretty sure a defensive game like this doesn’t happen when Shump comes back (assuming he still has his athleticism). Walker and Sessions pretty much got whatever they wanted.

    Re: Tyson – obviously a great game, but doesn’t it seem like he doesn’t contest drivers at the rim that much anymore? Seems like he’s playing to avoid fouls still. Maybe he’s told to do that while Rasheed is playing awfully and Amare/Camby are hurt?

  10. Frank

    Meanwhile, I love where this Hornets team is going. Biyombo, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Taylor are all plus defenders, and Kemba looks like he has a chance to be a good player. They probably need another real high-usage scorer, but they’ll be good in two years. It’s really too bad for them that they didn’t win the lottery despite having the worst record in NBA history. Anthony Davis and Biyombo would be a scary frontcourt to try and score on.

  11. jon abbey

    Frank:
    the funniest thing about that ending was that I’m pretty sure JR thought he was doing the heady thing by backing the ball out when they had the 2-on-1 — but of course the game was tied. He totally thought we were ahead at that point!

    I thought he did it because he wanted to make sure they got the last shot, which I thought was probably smarter than forcing a shot on the break when they didn’t have a clear one. basketball god Jason Kidd of course had the right answer in calling a time-out, though.

  12. jon abbey

    Frank:

    Re: Tyson – obviously a great game, but doesn’t it seem like he doesn’t contest drivers at the rim that much anymore? Seems like he’s playing to avoid fouls still.Maybe he’s told to do that while Rasheed is playing awfully and Amare/Camby are hurt?

    yeah, this is the other aspect I don’t get about all the “Tyson is the best player on the team” love (the first being the up and down rebounding). obviously D is harder to quantify than O, but if Melo’s offense was as sporadic as Tyson’s D has been so far this year, we would be reading about it non-stop.

  13. Juany8

    jon abbey: yeah, this is the other aspect I don’t get about all the “Tyson is the best player on the team” love (the first being the up and down rebounding). obviously D is harder to quantify than O, but if Melo’s offense was as sporadic as Tyson’s D has been so far this year, we would be reading about it non-stop.

    Well the people who think Tyson Chandler is the clear cut best player on the team would think so even if he played defense like Amar’e. The defense is just a convenient thing to tack on to his first ballot of fame offense.

  14. Juany8

    Frank:
    the funniest thing about that ending was that I’m pretty sure JR thought he was doing the heady thing by backing the ball out when they had the 2-on-1 — but of course the game was tied. He totally thought we were ahead at that point!

    Pretty sure a defensive game like this doesn’t happen when Shump comes back (assuming he still has his athleticism).Walker and Sessions pretty much got whatever they wanted.

    Re: Tyson – obviously a great game, but doesn’t it seem like he doesn’t contest drivers at the rim that much anymore? Seems like he’s playing to avoid fouls still.Maybe he’s told to do that while Rasheed is playing awfully and Amare/Camby are hurt?

    Agree with the theory about Chandler, I don’t think he’s going all out in every game since the Knicks become scary thin if he is out. Suddenly they’d be playing Sheed and Thomas at Center and Melo-Novak at PF. It would be a disaster until Camby starts playing well and Amar’e comes back

  15. jon abbey

    yeah, to be clear, I don’t have a problem with that. pacing one’s self through the ridiculously long season is crucial for NBA success unless you’re one of a handful of young super-freak athletes which Chandler isn’t anymore, but people seem to assume he defends like Mutumbo every play of every game and that really isn’t close to the case.

  16. d-mar

    We could really use someone to be a secondary scoring option to Melo, and a tough, balls-out defensive guard to slow down guys like Walker and Gordon. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Amare Stoudemire and Iman Shumpert.

    It’s good to be a Knicks fan right now.

  17. ephus

    d-mar:
    We could really use someone to be a secondary scoring option to Melo, and a tough, balls-out defensive guard to slow down guys like Walker and Gordon. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Amare Stoudemire and Iman Shumpert.

    It’s good to be a Knicks fan right now.

    +1.

    Right now, Red, I am really glad that I am not a farmer. My mother was wrong, I should not have been a farmer.

  18. johnno

    In the preseason, when Melo said that he wanted to be more than just a scorer and that he would do whatever it took to win, a lot of people scoffed. You can tell a lot about a guy’s mindset/attitude by how he acts/reacts when there is no time to think. Last night, when there was no time to think, he dove headfirst into a metal chair. It was not a particularly smart move and it was, for fans, the scariest moment of the year. However, it told me (and his teammates and the rest of the league) all that I need to know about his attitude and mindset so I think that it was the finest moment of his Knicks career. Somewhere, Charles Oakley is smiling. (of course, if he had broken his hand rather than cut it open…)

  19. JK47

    Well, JR Smith is certainly carrying the mantle of frustrating-but-lovable knucklehead that was carried so proudly by John Starks.

    He’s even more Starks-like than Starks himself.

  20. KnickfaninNJ

    I was surprised to see that Anthony played 38 minutes despite leaving early to get his hand fixed. That’s too much long term. Getting Amare back should help with this.

  21. bockadoo

    @20 – ephus – +1 – that was one of the best movie quote references this blog has ever had and your the best damn poster I’ve ever seen. (I assume you were quoting The Natural, right…?)
    My father wanted me to be a baseball player..

  22. johnno

    JK47: JR Smith is certainly carrying the mantle of frustrating-but-lovable knucklehead

    I ask for three things from the guys/teams I support — play hard, show me that you want to play for my team, and show me that you give a damn about winning. If you do those three things, I’ll forgive (and sometimes even embrace) a lot of knuckleheadedness. This season, there isn’t a guy on the team that I’m not cheering like crazy for. By the way, is there anyone out there who doesn’t think that Felton is one tough sob?

  23. johnno

    KnickfaninNJ: I was surprised to see that Anthony played 38 minutes despite leaving early to get his hand fixed. That’s too much long term.

    FWIW, Melo is something like 25th in the league in minutes played per game and no other Knick is in the top 40.

  24. DS

    This Calderon/Bargnani for Gasol rumor is interesting. I’m sure there’s a 99% chance it’s BS but… it could give L.A. a big boost at point guard, a little more depth, and some youth. Bargnani can spread the floor. I’m not sure Toronto cares to compete for an 8 seed this year, though. Calderon’s contract comes off the books this summer, Gasol’s deal expires 2013, Bargnani in 2014.

  25. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Frank:
    Holy #$@% this is an amazing article

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8719297/how-kobe-bryant-missed-shots-translate-new-nba-statistic-kobe-assist

    “However, while Nash was busy playmaking and while Kobe was busy jump shooting, Dwight Howard had taken about seven steps toward his happy place — the restricted area — fought off the gigantic DeMarcus Cousins, and gained optimal rebounding position. Kobe’s miss ricocheted upward from the rim before descending back down into the hands of Howard, who quickly put the ball in the basket; the Staples crowd went wild (in the dark). Did Kobe just miss a shot or did he just inadvertently set up Dwight Howard for an easy score? Are some of Kobe’s missed shots actually good for the Lakers? Are some of his misses kind of like assists?”

    “an easy score”

    Really? Fighting for position on an offensive rebound and then putting it in the hoop is an “easy score?” It’s all about framing, here. The writer says “easy score,” so it must be.

    And no — missed shots are not good shots. Some shots may be better than others w/r/t the likelihood of gaining an offensive rebound, but making the shot in the first place is almost always preferable.

    Do you know why Dion Waiters’s missed shots are “better” than other players’ missed shots? Because he has Varejao, a historically awesome rebounder, collecting a large portion of his bricks. Likewise, Tyson Chandler has been outperforming (by a large margin) his career offensive rebounding numbers. Are we willing to blindly accept that it’s somehow Carmelo Anthony’s shot selection that has made Chandler a better rebounder?

  26. Frank

    Whenever you guys get around to reading that Grantland article, here’s some food for thought:

    Faried is obviously a great rebounder, and has been so in his whole basketball life. But how much of his statistical greatness on the offensive glass influenced by:

    1) Denver takes more shots at the rim than any other team. According to Goldsberry’s analysis, shots at the rim have a much higher rate of offensive rebounds, which means that he has many more favorable chances for offensive rebounds in Denver than he would in, say, Washington (which takes 11 fewer shots/game at the rim).
    2) Faried rarely shoots in a primary action type of way such as post-ups, isolations, spot-ups (per Synergy, for Faried – 25% possessions are O-Rebs, 25% are off basket cuts, 12% in transition, many fewer possessions for other kinds of scoring) — which means that he is rarely out of position for rebounds.

    I guess what I’m saying is – how much of Faried’s O-reb greatness (at this level, I don’t know anything about his college) is due to his environment and to his own limitations on the offensive end? Bear in mind I’m not disputing the value of his offensive rebounding – just probably overthinking this whole thing.

    It bears noting that Javale McGee’s ORR is significantly higher than his career averages in Washington. Did he suddenly become a better rebounder? (of course not — WoW says that rebounds stay consistent from year to year!)

  27. Frank

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Do you know why Dion Waiters’s missed shots are “better” than other players’ missed shots? Because he has Varejao, a historically awesome rebounder, collecting a large portion of his bricks. Likewise, Tyson Chandler has been outperforming (by a large margin) his career offensive rebounding numbers. Are we willing to blindly accept that it’s somehow Carmelo Anthony’s shot selection that has made Chandler a better rebounder?

    That was my first thought also – but then how does that explain Harden only having 8% of his shots offensively rebounded despite having Asik around?

    And regarding Tyson, how else are we going to explain it? Like I wrote above, Berri says that 88%-ish of a player’s rebounding numbers can be predicted by his previous year. Why is he suddenly so much better? Some of this is probably just small-ish sample size. But I would wager at least some of it is due to things that are not measurable in the box score.

  28. Juany8

    jon abbey: hahaha, this is exactly what i said this summer and THCJ labelled as the dumbest thing he’d ever heard or something equally insightful.

    I love that the grantland writers can use statistics without shitting on the actual nature of basketball. Zach Lowe is especially brilliant about this.

    Favorite line of the whole article: “Most basketball statistics refer to discrete events such as shots, steals, and rebounds that occur within the continuous context of a flowing game. Basketball is very different from baseball, but in the basketball analytics world, too often we treat our sport as if it were baseball; we kid ourselves and say a rebound or a corner 3 is akin to a strikeout or a home run, a singular accomplishment achieved by a player that’s fit for tallying and displaying in a cell on some spreadsheet on some website.”

    Seriously, it’s almost like the grantland writers read these comments, which wouldn’t be as unfathomably ridiculous as it sounds when you consider that this blog is on the truehoop site, and writers like Zach Lowe started in very similar ways. The best part about them if they do is that they’re practically trolling THCJ and Owen, they SHIT on the idea that individual offensive efficiency says anything about offensive impact.

    Read this article too:
    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8659906/danny-granger-monta-ellis-jordan-crawford-nba-all-chuckers-squad

  29. Frank

    It’s a combination of things of course. Derrick Rose drives into the lane, everyone converges. Defensive guys slightly out of position because they are contesting. Chicago has great rebounders in addition. So we have a perfect storm of defensive guys out of rebounding position, Chicago’s superior rebounders, and large volume of shots taken in areas favorable for offensive rebounding. Each of these factors are necessary but not sufficient for the final result= Chicago killing the rest of the league on the offensive boards.

    I tweeted (another) request to Goldsberry to give us some numbers on Chicago’s ORR with Rose vs. Lucas III running the point last year. That would be a useful piece of data.

  30. ephus

    bockadoo:
    @20 – ephus – +1 – that was one of the best movie quote references this blog has ever had and your the best damn poster I’ve ever seen.(I assume you were quoting The Natural, right…?)
    My father wanted me to be a baseball player..

    Thanks [blushing]. “Losing is a sickness, as contagious as the bubonic plague.”

  31. Juany8

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    Do you know why Dion Waiters’s missed shots are “better” than other players’ missed shots? Because he has Varejao, a historically awesome rebounder, collecting a large portion of his bricks. Likewise, Tyson Chandler has been outperforming (by a large margin) his career offensive rebounding numbers. Are we willing to blindly accept that it’s somehow Carmelo Anthony’s shot selection that has made Chandler a better rebounder?

    You just made the point I was going to make for me! OF COURSE Waiter’s missed shots are more valuable than for other players, he plays with a fantastic rebounder!!! Taking a quick shot when you see that your dominant rebounder has great rebounder position is a good play. You have at least a 30-40% chance of the shot going in, and you have a monster chance of an offensive rebound and putback.

    Felton is doing the same thing, he takes shots in the pick and roll that look very suboptimal, but I bet if you looked at Chandler’s rebounding percentages of his one on one shots off the pick and roll, I bet it’s phenomenal. It doesn’t mean Chandler doesn’t deserve credit, it just means that Felton shouldn’t be penalized! This type of play isn’t as good as an assist but isn’t anywhere near as bad as a simple missed shot.

    How your players play depends on the other players on the team. You keep basically admitting as much, but keep pretending you’re arguing for the other side. Even something as obvious as making a wide open pass to a corner 3 can be a bad play if the guy standing in the corner is Landry Fields

  32. Juany8

    I love that the league leaders this year in missed shots leading to putbacks are Kobe and Melo and not someone like Ty Lawson. Almost like these players see Chandler/Howard standing at the basket alone without a clear way to pass it to them before they get a 3 second call, so they just shoot the shot up realizing it won’t hurt the team if they miss.

    Doesn’t sound as ridiculous when you look back to the last time the Lakers won the championship and had 2 put back game winners off Kobe misses. People killed Kobe for taking a quick shot despite the fact that every single eye on the floor was on him, and then on the shot, which made it extremely easy for Gasol and Artest to get a putback. I guarantee Kobe and other smart teams/players are aware of that affect

  33. jon abbey

    and the specific thing about some of these Felton misses that Chandler has been putting back easily is that the defense basically decides to make it a 2 on 2 game because NY’s other three players on the floor can usually shoot 3s. so when Chandler’s guy goes to try to harass Felton’s shot, of course it’s a better play for Felton to throw it up softly as opposed to trying to force a pass elsewhere. it’s the same point I made this summer, but in even a more obvious way since the D makes it a 2 on 2 game. the whole Nets game was like this.

  34. Owen

    I think Kobe is very aware of how good his teammates have been historically and does everything he can to obscure the fact.

    Goldsberry does try to maneuver around the fact that Kobe has led the league in shots and has played with the strongest frontcourt in basketball for basically his entire career. But, yeah, not buying….

  35. Juany8

    Owen:
    I think Kobe is very aware of how good his teammates have been historically and does everything he can to obscure the fact.

    Goldsberry does try to maneuver around the fact that Kobe has led the league in shots and has played with the strongest frontcourt in basketball for basically his entire career. But, yeah, not buying….

    Well then I guess fuck Michael Jordan, I wouldn’t take Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom over Rodman and Scottie Pippen. Magic too, Kareem has a case for being the best player of all time, would anyone take Shaq over Hakeem AND Worthy? What about Bird, how come Kobe isn’t allowed to win with hall of fame big men but Bird is allowed to play on teams with 5 hall of famers that aren’t on their last legs?

    Did you know that if we followed the Tyson Chandler argument to its logical conclusion, that the player with the highest offensive rating is the best offensive player on the team, especially when it’s a huge difference, then the real star of the 96 Bulls wasn’t Jordan, or even Pippen, it was Steve freaking Kerr! Wonder what he would have to say about that…

  36. chrisk06811

    How much better would we be tonight with Camby getting the 18 mins that sheed/thomas gave us last night. Does he really have a sore foot? is that an actual injury?

  37. jon abbey

    chrisk06811:
    How much better would we be tonight with Camby getting the 18 mins that sheed/thomas gave us last night.Does he really have a sore foot?is that an actual injury?

    Camby has looked terrible so far this year, Sheed has looked the best in general of those three (although not so much the last few games), but Camby was diagnosed with a plantar fascia issue in the last day or two.

  38. Owen

    Not really sure what your point is.

    My point is that it seems silly to credit Kobe for essentially missing shots simply because he has had outstanding teammates throughout his career. who were able to make up for his shortcomings.

    There is nothing inherent in Kobe Bryant that makes his misses more worthwhile. The teammates he has had make them more worthwhile.

    Who should get credit for that fact. Him or his teammates?

    The answer seems pretty obvious. It’s a lot easier to find a guy to miss shots than someone to rebound and score off them.

    Perhaps I am crazy though…..

    The difference between Kobe and Bird, Magic, Jordan, Kareem is that the latter, across many team environments, showed an ability to score really efficiently. Kobe has basically been above league average his entire career but nowhere near the territory of the all time greats.

  39. Juany8

    Owen:
    Not really sure what your point is.

    My point is that it seems silly to credit Kobe for essentially missing shots simply because he has had outstanding teammates throughout his career. who were able to make up for his shortcomings.

    There is nothing inherent in Kobe Bryant that makes his misses more worthwhile. The teammates he has had make them more worthwhile.

    Who should get credit for that fact. Him or his teammates?

    The answer seems pretty obvious. It’s a lot easier to find a guy to miss shots than someone to rebound and score off them.

    Perhaps I am crazy though…..

    The difference between Kobe and Bird, Magic, Jordan, Kareem is that the latter, across many team environments, showed an ability to score efficiently. Kobe has basically been above league average his entire career but nowhere near the territory of the all time greats.

    Like Steve Kerr, the NBA’s all time leading player in offensive rating. You know other people are reading my posts and they notice when you ignore 90% of what I actually said.

    I’ve already pointed out that I am 100% sure many of Kobe’s shots came when he realized his big men was in good position for the rebound. I know this is a difficult concept for you to grasp, but players aren’t just standing around when they aren’t shooting or assisting. If Shaq has tremendous position inside but Kobe can’t get him a pass before he gets a 3 second call, what’s the best way to take advantage of that? I’ve already said that I don’t think Kobe should get credit for the play, just that he shouldn’t be penalized for making a positive basketball play.

    So to answer your general question, I think Kobe shouldn’t be punished for taking a good shot, and I don’t think Pau Gasol should get credit for making a scoring play AND securing an extra possession.

  40. Nick C.

    I get the notion that taking it to the hole and putiting up a reasonable shot that may be missed but which results in a put back is something to credit to the shot misser but the article goes a bit far. He seems to be inferring that Kobe has some mystical way of directing his misses to his teammates. Maybe I missed it he did note the irony of comparing Brand and Rose as shooters and noting that even though Brand makes more shots more of Rose’s misses turn into offensive rebounds resulting in more points. Then further along notes that Love’s mised threes don’t turn into as many o-boards as Ridnour’s because Love is not in good rebounding position on his own missed threes. It seems to me to be a poor way to compare players to give one guys misses extra credit, in effect, because his front line is full off good offensive rebounds and the offensive scheme encourages offensive rebounding rather than getting back (Celtics- Doc Rivers et. al.). But in the end this is what happens when one tries to parcel out credit to individuals on events that can be valued on a team level.

  41. jon abbey

    Owen:
    My point is that it seems silly to credit Kobe for essentially missing shots simply because he has had outstanding teammates throughout his career. who were able to make up for his shortcomings.

    your point is circular, though. his teammates aren’t as outstanding as you think because the metrics you’re using to judge them are innately slanted/flawed towards one type of player. this is the fundamental issue, and is why no one pays attention to Berri-type analysis anymore, except you and THCJ anyway.

  42. Frank

    So I apparently have a huge amount of time to waste, so did an interesting analysis. Bear with me.
    Goldsberry basically says that shots at different ranges have different (expected) average ORRs league-wide (note – his spatial analysis is split into zones that probably roughly correlate with hoopdata’s shot locations, so I just used those for the analysis)
    Rim- 40%
    3-9 – 35%
    10-15 – 30%
    16-23 – 25%
    3P – 28%

    If we believe these are expected average ORR for each location, you can then take a team’s shot location FG missed and calculate their expected # of offensive rebounds at each location per game – for example, if ATL misses 6.6 shots at the rim each game, they should expect to get 6.6(0.4) = 2.64 offensive rebounds from those shots. You can add up the total amount of misses by shot locations, then multiply by expected ORR and then calculate a total “expected” ORR. and compare it to the “Actual” ORR.

    Anyway, I’m not sure this is useful at all, but it gives some idea of how well you should expect to offensively rebound the ball based on shot locations, and which teams do better or worse than expected.

    For instance – Denver gets about 10% more O-reb than expected. Can probably chalk that up to having superior offensive rebounders? But based on their shot locations, they would be expected to rank 2nd in ORR, and they rank 1st overall – so basically they are doing roughly what is expected of them. On the other hand, Utah would be expect to rank 18th in ORR based on shot locations, but instead they actually rank 3rd.

    The real outliers (better than expected) are:
    Utah, Chicago, Washington, Golden State, Portland, and PHX

    The real outliers (much worse than expected) are:
    Detroit, San Antonio, Milwaukee, Boston, and Dallas

    NYK? Expected to have a 30.7 ORR, actual is 23.4 ORR. The expected rank based on shot location is 16th, actual rank is 25th, and we get 23.8% fewer offensive rebounds than would be expected based on shot location.

  43. Frank

    Difficult to separate out which teams (like SA, Boston, and Doc Rivers-tree coach Lawrence Frank) just don’t bother rebounding the ball as a strategic decision, and which teams are just very bad or good at it.

    Re: Denver – they lead the league getting more rebounds than expected based on locations. So even though they’re doing (Rank-wise) what is expected of them, they are still just killing it on the offensive boards. That has Faried written all over it.

  44. Frank

    One last thing – I’m pretty sure some of my assumptions are wrong (specifically that Goldsberry’s spatial chart matches with hoopdata’s shot locations), and clearly some of the numbers don’t totally add up. But this is just for discussion, not for publication.

  45. Frank

    It may actually be more useful to do this analysis for defensive rebounding, since there isn’t a coach alive that thinks d-rebs are not worth getting. I’ll try to post that later.

  46. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    jon abbey: EXACTLY the same comment you mocked a few months ago, too funny.

    You said that a missed shot could have the same value as a made shot.

  47. Owen

    Jon – I don’t know. I think Shaq, Gasol, and Howard were pretty good without Kobe too.

    Juan – Anyone who has played basketball understands the idea that you should throw the ball at the rim when you have great frontcourt players rather than out of bounds. It’s not rocket science.

    The idea that is silly in this article, as Nick notes, is that there is any comparative advantage to Kobe doing it, as opposed to say, Paul Pierce or Vince Carter or Kemba Walker.

    And until missing a shot is better than making a shot it’s fair to penalize Kobe for not making them.

  48. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Juany8: I love that the league leaders this year in missed shots leading to putbacks are Kobe and Melo and not someone like Ty Lawson. Almost like these players see Chandler/Howard standing at the basket alone without a clear way to pass it to them before they get a 3 second call, so they just shoot the shot up realizing it won’t hurt the team if they miss.

    Nice statistical analysis.

    Kobe’s #1 in FGA; Carmelo’s #3. Brilliant stuff. Hmm, I wonder why Steve Novak isn’t the best in the league w/r/t that stat…

  49. jon abbey

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: You said that a missed shot could have the same value as a made shot.

    actually what I said was that if a drive to the basket drew a second defender and thus freed up a teammate to put the offensive rebound back, it was exactly the same result, yet it looks wildly different in the box score. what I didn’t realize at the time was just how often we’d get to witness that early in the season with the Felton/Chandler combination.

  50. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    jon abbey: the metrics you’re using to judge them are innately slanted/flawed towards one type of player

    Horseshit conjecture. Everything that you write is total and utter horseshit. Horseshit.

  51. Owen

    I think honestly a far more interesting critique of offensive rebounding and missed shots is the idea you shouldn’t compete for them so that you can get your defense back. That is one that seems to have a lot more validity.

    But what would happen to the Kobe assist in that case…..

  52. jon abbey

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Horseshit conjecture. Everything that you write is total and utter horseshit. Horseshit.

    awesome, keep believing in your system and ignore simple facts like Chandler having his single best scoring game ever (in a 700+ game career) on the same night that Felton has his single worst shooting game ever (in a 500+ game career). nope, no connection here, total coincidence… :)

  53. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Juany8: Did you know that if we followed the Tyson Chandler argument to its logical conclusion, that the player with the highest offensive rating is the best offensive player on the team, especially when it’s a huge difference, then the real star of the 96 Bulls wasn’t Jordan, or even Pippen, it was Steve freaking Kerr! Wonder what he would have to say about that…

    That’s it — twist that argument so it fits your narrative, guy. Twist it all up.

    Nevermind that Kerr never came close to scoring 1.93 PPS. In his best shooting season (’96) he had a 1.36 PPS. I think you fail to understand the value of someone like Tyson Chandler taking 10% of his team’s shots and scoring 20% of their points.

    And try to keep in mind that he produced a BETTER PPS number last year despite having no viable PG for the pick ‘n’ roll for most of the season.

  54. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    jon abbey: nope, no connection here, total coincidence… :)

    Oh, you BELIEVE that it’s so, but you have absolutely no evidence whatsoever. Just interpret the data to fit your conjecture-laden ideas about basketball because you BELIEVE them so strongly.

    You’re a real champ. We’re all so proud of you for being so smart.

  55. jon abbey

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Oh, you BELIEVE that it’s so, but you have absolutely no evidence whatsoever. Just interpret the data to fit your conjecture-laden ideas about basketball because you BELIEVE them so strongly.

    You’re a real champ. We’re all so proud of you for being so smart.

    you still don’t get that the “evidence” that you like to cite is innately flawed, but whatever, it’s amusing. all players operate in little bubble-contained vacuums, that’s why James Harden is just as efficient this year as last year and why he’s so much of a better player than Melo.

    oh wait, that’s another argument that it looks like you were full of shit on. does Berri pay you to be this stupid publicly? I hope someone does.

  56. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Owen: The idea that is silly in this article, as Nick notes, is that there is any comparative advantage to Kobe doing it, as opposed to say, Paul Pierce or Vince Carter or Kemba Walker.

    This is exactly my point. These are NBA players and they ALL require significant defensive presence to prevent them from scoring 30 on 20 shots. Where the value lies is in those players who can shoot 8-15 instead of 6-15. Just a couple extra shots per game is the difference between a #1 seed and a bottom-four seed, or a bottom-four seed and a lottery team.

    And no one on this site — not even the analysis god, ruruland himself — is able to tell the difference between a guy who shoots 60% TS and one who shoots 53%. Yet the difference in value is enormous.

  57. jon abbey

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: And no one on this site — not even the analysis god, ruruland himself — is able to tell the difference between a guy who shoots 60% TS and one who shoots 53%. Yet the difference in value is enormous.

    sometimes it is, sometimes it isn’t. it’s all about context, which you ignore because it confuses your idiotic narrative.

  58. jon abbey

    seriously, just follow a different sport. I’d recommend tennis, no nasty team interaction issues there.

  59. lavor postell

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Oh, you BELIEVE that it’s so, but you have absolutely no evidence whatsoever. Just interpret the data to fit your conjecture-laden ideas about basketball because you BELIEVE them so strongly.

    You’re a real champ. We’re all so proud of you for being so smart.

    And we’re all so proud of your condescending, smug demeanor.
    First off if you’ve watched the Knicks this year, you know that the pick and roll with Felton driving has been a significant weapon because of the fact that it creates an offensive rebounding opportunity where Chandler has a rebounding advantage. Either we have created a mismatch where a point guard is trying to block him out or he has an inside position on the opposing center who showed on the pNr. A lot of this has to do with Tyson being one of the best screeners in the league. It also has to do with a player who is constantly looking to attack off the pick and roll.

    But yeah I’d rather have Lin the guy who in a 25 game sample size apparently proved that he was going to be a future hall of famer. Let’s disregard that part of his success was an unsustainably high ppp in isolation, unless you think Lin hitting hero ball threes over Dirk, Kobe and Calderon is a skill that can be mastered.

    Really? Every NBA player requires significant attention so they don’t get 30 off 20 shots? Whether or not thats true there’s a certain level of attention that is granted to certain players that others do not receive. Let me know next time that the Spurs triple team Kemba everytime he gets in to the paint. All teams play the same defense on every player in the league irrespective of time, situation, score and player ability right? Shot creation has no value because every player can create his own shots. I just don’t get why we don’t isolate Novak more. Not like the attention Melo garners…

  60. Frank

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: And no one on this site — not even the analysis god, ruruland himself — is able to tell the difference between a guy who shoots 60% TS and one who shoots 53%. Yet the difference in value is enormous.

    What YOU can’t understand is that sometimes, just sometimes, players need a contribution from a teammate in order to get their box score stat. Greg Smith had a 2 PPP on the deciding play in that Hou-Lakers game the other night. Is it because he was an inherently awesome player on that play? Partially – he had to make the basket cut. But does he get the same opportunity if Harden doesn’t blow by Artest and cause the Lakers defense to break? Of course not. But yet Greg Smith get a 2 PPP play and Harden gets nothing on that play.

    Some players are less dependent than others on the contributions of others. Some players are more dependent than others. Look at Amare minus Nash. Mo Williams minus Lebron. And it goes on and on. Small sample but Harden now not playing with Durant and Westbrook. You just can’t seem to accept that some players really DO make other players better, and that that ability may be difficult to quantify and to predict.

    For some players (ie. Faried) who basically make basket cuts and get O-rebs, their shooting efficiency is not going to be as dependent, but in the case of basket cuts, it WILL be dependent on someone actually passing him the ball on those cuts. His usage or shot volume on those basket cuts will always be dependent on another player’s actions.

  61. Owen

    I am not here to say context or role doesn’t matter. It’s an argument you can have. But I expect James Harden to improve significantly as the year goes on. Mark it down now. He ends the year around 60% ts%. And Carmelo will end the year around 55%.

    And it’s worth noting on the scorecard that after last night’s performance Ryan Anderson is scoring 20 per 36 with a ts% of 61%. Without Dwight Howard or Anthony Davis to create shots for him.

  62. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    lavor postell: First off if you’ve watched the Knicks this year, you know that the pick and roll with Felton driving has been a significant weapon because of the fact that it creates an offensive rebounding opportunity where Chandler has a rebounding advantage. Either we have created a mismatch where a point guard is trying to block him out or he has an inside position on the opposing center who showed on the pNr. A lot of this has to do with Tyson being one of the best screeners in the league. It also has to do with a player who is constantly looking to attack off the pick and roll.

    And what’s the explanation for Tyson Chandler shooting nearly the same PPS (-0.03) with Felton and Kidd than he did with Toney Douglas and Jeremy Lin?

  63. KnickfaninNJ

    That’s a good point and a reassuring one. Woodson seems better than d’Antoni about getting enough rest for his players and using more of his team (although, to be fair, he has a deeper bench than d’Antoni did too). But I still hope Amare takes some of the load off of Melo when he comes back. Melo is working more consistently harder on both sides of the ball than he did last year and he looks tired at the end of games sometimes, and seems to start missing shots because of it. More rest would also probably mean less chance of injury, especially if he’s less tired on average when playing.

    johnno: FWIW, Melo is something like 25th in the league in minutes played per game and no other Knick is in the top 40.

  64. Frank

    Owen: And it’s worth noting on the scorecard that after last night’s performance Ryan Anderson is scoring 20 per 36 with a ts% of 61%. Without Dwight Howard or Anthony Davis to create shots for him.

    That’s a very fair point. Like I said above, it’s not always clear who will be affected by change of circumstance. I would submit to you David lee, who had a WP48 of 0.338 as a secondary/tertiary option (USG% ~14) which was cut in half (0.169 in 09-10) when his usage increased to 20, and then has averaged a WP48 of 0.86 on similar usage in Golden State. So his WP48 has dropped by 3/4 since 06-07. Did 3 out of his 4 limbs fall off? Or did maybe the circumstances change?

    I don’t want to hear about how WP48 year after year remains roughly the same, because it makes sense that if you put the same player in the same situations over and over again, you’ll probably get a similar result. That’s basically an uncontrolled experiment. But if you take the same player and move him to a different environment, that’s when the test is relevant. And a significant portion of the time (THCJ will call them outliers, or course without any data to back up the fact that they are, indeed, outliers) WP48 fails that test.

  65. KnickfaninNJ

    If he’s taking the same types of shots, but just getting more of them because of more or of more effective pick and rolls, his PPS will stay the same, but his total scoring will go up. His points per game are up substantially over his career average without using many more minutes, which agrees with this.

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: And what’s the explanation for Tyson Chandler shooting nearly the same PPS (-0.03) with Felton and Kidd than he did with Toney Douglas and Jeremy Lin?

  66. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Frank: What YOU can’t understand is that sometimes, just sometimes, players need a contribution from a teammate in order to get their box score stat.

    You people reduce my argument to a black & white fallacy when that’s simply not the case. I do not argue that there is no interaction effect. I argue instead that the interaction effect is largely constant across player types, within which individual players have greater or lesser skills. Tyson Chandler is the best, perhaps in league history, at scoring close to the rim. Over time, a poor PG will commit more turnovers and hit fewer shots, and perhaps Tyson Chandler will score fewer points, but his constant play (regardless of PG, from Toney Douglas to Jason Kidd) over the last several seasons suggests to me that HE is responsible for his production first and foremost, NOT the players around him.

  67. Frank

    Sorry – lazy math. If you weight Lee’s WP48 numbers by minutes played, then his aggregate WP48 in GS is actually even worse = 0.072. So he basically turned from a Tim Duncan level player to an Antawn Jamison player. But of course that couldn’t be due to a change in role/team/teammates/coaching/system could it?

  68. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    KnickfaninNJ:
    If he’s taking the same types of shots, but just getting more of them because of more or of more effective pick and rolls, his PPS will stay the same, but his total scoring will go up.His points per game are up substantially over his career average without using many more minutes, which agrees with this.

    So again, I’ll ask — why do we claim that Chandler’s stats are inflated due to others’ interaction effects and discredit, with only the eyetest and “common sense” to back us up, that his high efficiency and outstanding skillset in the pain might have the same relationship on his teammates’? Because he doesn’t pass when he has a dunk opportunity? Seems kind of silly to argue that teams don’t gameplan around the most efficient scorer in the league, even if he only takes two or three types of shots over the course of the whole season.

  69. DRed

    jon abbey: awesome, keep believing in your system and ignore simple facts like Chandler having his single best scoring game ever (in a 700+ game career) on the same night that Felton has his single worst shooting game ever (in a 500+ game career). nope, no connection here, total coincidence… :)

    Tyson scored on, what, 4 of Ray-Ray’s misses in that game? The fact that it was Ray’s worst shooting game ever doesn’t seem that relevant. I’m sure there’s a slight connection, but I don’t understand what you think that proves.

  70. jon abbey

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:Seems kind of silly to argue that teams don’t gameplan around the most efficient scorer in the league, even if he only takes two or three types of shots over the course of the whole season.

    silly or not, of course they don’t. I just heard GS coach Mark Jackson on the radio (sounding shockingly intelligent, by the way) and when he was asked about the Knicks, he immediately jumped to talking about Melo and how he was having an MVP-level season so far. you can argue whether this is dumb or not, but I don’t think you can argue that this is how teams generally think.

  71. jon abbey

    DRed: Tyson scored on, what, 4 of Ray-Ray’s misses in that game?The fact that it was Ray’s worst shooting game ever doesn’t seem that relevant.I’m sure there’s a slight connection, but I don’t understand what you think that proves.

    that it wasn’t really the worst game Felton ever played (although he sucked), that it wasn’t the best offensive game Chandler ever played (although he was good), that attributing numbers to individuals and not teams is deeply flawed and much more complicated than some people seem to think.

  72. Frank

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Over time, a poor PG will commit more turnovers and hit fewer shots, and perhaps Tyson Chandler will score fewer points, but his constant play (regardless of PG, from Toney Douglas to Jason Kidd) over the last several seasons suggests to me that HE is responsible for his production first and foremost, NOT the players around him.

    You’ll get no argument from me (or probably anyone here) about whether or not Tyson is awesome. I would probably agree that he’s the best player on the team if you take offense/defense in aggregate, or at least 1b if someone wants to argue Melo is 1a. But I think his value on offense is way more than just his TS — it’s his screening and his effect on the defense when he rolls to the basket that breaks the defense and opens up Felton drives, Novak 3′s, etc. But yes – his ability to finish at the cup through contact is beastly, and is one of the major factors that opens up shots for others. No question the PNR wouldn’t be as effective if it were, say, Novak diving to the hoop. So I consider Tyson a “shot-creator” every bit as much as Melo.

  73. massive

    I think Owen’s statement basically kills this entire discussion; the rebounder is more important than the shooter because it doesn’t matter who the shooter is as long as they are playing with a great rebounder. If Carter, Kemba, or Pierce were playing with Gasol/Howard or Tyson Chandler, I’m sure a lot of their missed shots would be rebounded too. Is the argument that missed shots are more valuable for one team than they are for other teams? If that is the case, I’m noture there should be an argument as that i irrefutable due to different personnel league wide (i.e. we can afford more missed shots than Miami because we play better defense and have Tyson Chandler grabbing rebounds instead of Chris Bosh).

    This seems a lot more like an intellectual case of finger pointing between Juany/Jon Abbey and THCJ than it is a constructive argument. Why hasn’t anyone responded to Owen’s point? Maybe it would serve everyone better if they didn’t come off so extreme.

  74. lavor postell

    Yeah having Tyson is great. That killshot putback dunk against the Spurs this season was fucking glorious.

  75. Frank

    massive: I think Owen’s statement basically kills this entire discussion; the rebounder is more important than the shooter because it doesn’t matter who the shooter is as long as they are playing with a great rebounder. If Carter, Kemba, or Pierce were playing with Gasol/Howard or Tyson Chandler, I’m sure a lot of their missed shots would be rebounded too.

    That’s not necessarily true because the defense does not react to every shooter the same way. Picture hero-ball Kobe at the end of the game — we’ve seen a million times that he gets triple teamed and throws up a player. But now that’s 3 defenders who are all in one spot. That’s totally different than when JR goes one-on-one and does a step-back long-2.

    The most obvious example is Derrick Rose when he drives into the lane. The defense collapses, defensive rebounders are out of position, etc. which probably at least marginally increases CHI’s ORR irrespective of their admittedly awesome rebounders. You need to have someone who can get into the lane and break the defense. That doesn’t happen when it’s Chris Duhon trying to drive the lane.

  76. KnickfaninNJ

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: So again, I’ll ask — why do we claim that Chandler’s stats are inflated due to others’ interaction effects and discredit, with only the eyetest and “common sense” to back us up, that his high efficiency and outstanding skillset in the pain might have the same relationship on his teammates’? Because he doesn’t pass when he has a dunk opportunity? Seems kind of silly to argue that teams don’t gameplan around the most efficient scorer in the league, even if he only takes two or three types of shots over the course of the whole season.

    I agree that Chandler’s high efficiency is mostly due to him, due to his hard work, due to all the practice he puts in and his good judgement about when and when not to take a shot. And I don’t think anyone said the Knicks don’t game plan around this efficiency. I think they do take it into account. They (and Woodson too) look to make opportunities to take advantage of his efficiency close to the basket. The net is his scoring is up this year because he’s on a better team this year than he was last year. But I wouldn’t call this “inflated” statistics. A stat is a stat. It’s a real change in his scoring average. I think many of the other posters to this forum are making the point that this shows circumstances can change a players output, while you seem to be saying that a players output is always the same — hence the arguments.

    Did I understand your point correctly?

  77. massive

    Ahh, great point Frank. The attention defenses give players also varies league-wide, and it even varies over the course of a game, so that does eventually place a player out of rebounding position. That’s how the Lakers beat the Thunder in Game 5 of the 2010 playoffs, and how the Lakers beat the Suns in the WC Finals that year. Kobe misses and one of Artest/Gasol grabs the rebound and puts it in. However, Raymond Felton does not see the same defensive attention that Rose or Kobe would, and Tyson Chandler has been punching home his misses all season. Maybe Tyson Chandler would score more points playing with Derrick Rose, but then again, I bet Derrick Rose misses less than Felton does with that pathetic floater.

    Your point that it’s almost impossible to gauge team interactions is a valid one with which I agree. We should not ignore it, nor should we claim

  78. Juany8

    Here’s what the argument is guys, and it’s really not that complicated. Some shots are easier to rebound than others. Often times, they are MUCH easier to rebound than other shots. So the argument then is, if you know your shot has an excellent shot of being rebounded when you’re taking it compared to usual, it is NOT a bad play to just take the shot. You have a decent chance of having the shot just go in, and even if it doesn’t you have a great chance of getting a rebound off of it, so either way it works out well for the team.

    So if Melo sees Chandler being boxed out by a point guard but can’t get the ball inside to him in time for Chandler to take advantage (guess what, passing lanes matter which means spacing matters) Melo might make the intelligent basketball decision to just take a shot, maybe even taking a tough looking floater because he realizes that it will land more softly around the rim, thus being easier to rebound.

    So making the case that Kobe doesn’t have any special ability to get his teammates rebounds is true, but ultimately meaningless. The point is that if Kobe realizes his team can score very easily by him just throwing up a shot, then him throwing up a shot is not a bad basketball play. I won’t go so far as to say Kobe should get an assist as the article seems to imply, but the percentage of Kobe’s shot that get rebounded is much better than league average, so his misses hurt his team less than other team’s misses. Of course if he went to another team and missed just as much, the team would do worse.

    You can’t separate Kobe’s play from his teammates because Kobe doesn’t separate his play from his teammates. There’s a difference between a player jacking up a pull up jumper in transition that has no chance of going in compared to a paint shot over 2 defenders that have no chance of getting in position for the rebound. That’s the argument

  79. Juany8

    Here’s the efficiency vs. usage problem boiled down vs. creators and finishers. A “finisher” like Chandler or Novak will shoot the same regardless of teammates as long as their shot distribution stayed the same (Chandler keeps to shots at the rim, Novak keeps to 3′s) Novak won’t magically make a 3 more often from a Kobe pass or a Toney Douglas pass, that I will agree with THCJ and Owen on. The efficiency on the type of shots they take is entirely due to their own skill.

    The real value of having shot creation, even if it comes from Poppovich’s systems, is in how often guys like Novak and Chandler are allowed to shoot the shots that make them efficient. With better teammates, spacing, etc. actually handling the ball and getting it to where it needs to go, Novak will get corner 3′s and Chandler will get dunks in the pick and roll more often. Since these guys can’t actually handle the ball AT ALL, they are dependent on an environment that gets them the ball where they need it to be effective to increase their number of shots. It doesn’t matter how efficient they are if they’re not getting up any shots.

    For a shot creator, a player who is actually going to be handling the ball and trying to get past a set defense, their usage is what stays consistent due to their skill. No matter what team they are on, they can get a good number of shots up without causing constant turnovers, the absolute worst outcome of an offensive possession by far. Finishers still help the shot creator though, by penalizing the defense for paying too much attention to a creator. You can go double on Derrick Rose, but you have to leave another player open and unattended to do so, and if you don’t try to stop him in some way, chances are he will just kill a defender one on one. Both are valuable, but you can’t pretend finishers are inherently superior to shot creators when you need both. Your position adjustment is a sad attempt to correct for this

  80. massive

    I don’t think you can prove that Carmelo Anthony or Kobe Bryant take shots because they know their guy will grab a rebound. These are guys who don’t believe they can miss any shot they take. I also don’t think it is likely that a player like Carmelo Anthony or Kobe Bryant will just stop taking bad shots because they don’t have a Tyson Chandler or Gasol/Howard to grab their misses. It certainly didn’t stop Kobe from shooting bad shots when he had Kwame Brown in the front court.

    We cannot separate the play of teammates, I agree with that. Tyson Chandler would get no offensive rebounds if his team never missed a shot. But I tend to believe that Kobe Bryant needs a Gasol/Howard front court more than they need him, especially since those guys can definitely score the ball. In the end, history has shown that you need great rebounders and above-average volume scorers, or one of Michael Jordan/LeBron James. Whether you believe one to be more important than the other is up to you. All that matters (to me) is that we have both a good volume scorer and a great rebounder/interior presence on our team, which should lead to a lot of wins this year.

  81. Juany8

    massive:
    I don’t think you can prove that Carmelo Anthony or Kobe Bryant take shots because they know their guy will grab a rebound. These are guys who don’t believe they can miss any shot they take. I also don’t think it is likely that a player like Carmelo Anthony or Kobe Bryant will just stop taking bad shots because they don’t have a Tyson Chandler or Gasol/Howard to grab their misses. It certainly didn’t stop Kobe from shooting bad shots when he had Kwame Brown in the front court.

    I agree that it doesn’t make Kobe or Melo better, just that the play isn’t as bad because of their teammates. If Kobe was taking the same shot and had no one to get a rebound, it would be a worse shot.

    There’s also the fact that if you change the distribution of shots a bit to give Kobe more shots instead of Gasol, Gasol will be able to get the rebound more often than the other way around. So on a team level, it makes sense for Kobe to be taking shots that are slightly lower efficiency than Gasol, the overall result on the possession will average out to be the same.

    Again, I’m not trying to say that some of Kobe’s misses should instead earn him praise. I’m arguing that the misses his team gets back shouldn’t hurt him because they don’t hurt the team. Since a team HAS to take a shot before the shot clock, you can’t just argue that the team should keep looking until they find a shot. Sometimes that decent mid range look from the elbow with 12 seconds on the shot clock is better than resetting the offense since it is harder to score with less shot clock.

    This kind of optimization process of when to shoot or not shoot HAS to be weighed by teammates. It’s not that Melo is a better player when he misses because he has Chandler, it’s that his team isn’t hurt as much by his miss because they have Chandler, so the team is better off letting him shoot

  82. ruruland

    The underlying assumption Owen, THCJ and Berricylotrs make isnot just that there are no interaction effects among teammates, but that defenses defend each player the same way all the time.

    It’s probably not the most preposterous/ignorant assumption they make, but it’s one of the reasons they get so quiet the further you go into these discussions.

    You know, for anyone who has followed these debates over the months and years, the cultists limitations in discussing the nature of their blindly accepted dogma must be quite revealing.

    Time and again when you bring up very valid conceptual problems to their statistical models, they aren’t even clever enough to really obfuscate or equivocate, they simply ignore the argument as if it never really put their basic assumptions to the test.

    It’s really hard to imagine a p.r. team as ill-informed and ill-equipped to handle the challenge of defending their god Berri, but I’d say both of them do a hell of disservice.

    Of course, it brings up another possibility, which is that Berri himself has not even conjured up evidence based retorts to the very rational analysis that breaks apart his fundamental assumptions.

    These arguments will never go anywhere until we can get smarter, more well-informed Berri spokespeople.

  83. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    ruruland: The underlying assumption Owen, THCJ and Berricylotrs make isnot just that there are no interaction effects among teammates, but that defenses defend each player the same way all the time.

    It’s probably not the most preposterous/ignorant assumption they make, but it’s one of the reasons they get so quiet the further you go into these discussions.

    This is an absurd simplification of our positions. My argument is that Carmelo Anthony’s missed shots are not inherently more valuable than, say, Danny Granger’s. And each time I see Carmelo Anthony in an one-on-one ISO situation, I think to myself, “How the fuck could this possibly make his teammates better? Every time he gets in the low post and he takes a shot over both his primary defender AND the help that slides from the weakside, I think the same thing. And so on and so on. And when I see Carmelo Anthony doing the same thing that other players can do, I ask how he is so different from other ball-dominant SF.

    The assumption is that Carmelo gets lots of hockey assists, and I don’t see any evidence for that beyond “ruruland-sez-so.” That’s why I remain skeptical of all of these conjecture-based arguments. I think the simplest explanation is the most realistic: that players are primarily responsible for their own position due to the game of basketball being relatively uniform at the NBA level. At the extremes, you have the ’03 Spurs halfcourt offense and the ’06 Suns 7SoL, but most of the time, you have the same thing over and over — fast breaks, pick and rolls, isolations, dribble drives and curls.

    And even in the “extreme” offenses like the Triangle, you have the same things as 7SoL, just in different frequencies.

  84. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    ruruland: That is, if such people even exist.

    Dude, the extent of your analysis is making sweeping generalizations about individual players’ play-styles. You say, “X is good at this; trust me, I’ve seen it,” and then occasionally use PER or WS48

    What makes you so upset about WP48 is that it says your favorite basketball player is average and that some of your least favorite basketball players are better than him. That’s what it comes down to. If there’s a fundamental flaw with WP48, the same flaw can be found in every statistic you could ever conjure up to make your point.

    And without those stats, you’re reduced to a guy who uses inductive reasoning to explain why a statistic is wrong.

  85. Frank

    Juany8: The efficiency on the type of shots they take is entirely due to their own skill.

    That’s not even entirely true but I agree with your general point. Imagine an average PNR play we run – Felton and Chandler doing a high PNR with JR, Novak, and Melo in the corners and wing is altogether different than Felton/Chandler doing a high PNR with James White, Ronnie Brewer, and Landry Fields. Opposing teams will crash down on the lane and take their chances with the latter 3 wing players hitting an open 3, so Tyson will be taking his shot through significantly more traffic than if Novak/JR/Melo are behind the 3 point line – and so his efficiency on those shots will be affected by those around him. On principle that makes sense to me, not sure what the stats actually are on that.

  86. Juany8

    Frank: That’s not even entirely true but I agree with your general point. Imagine an average PNR play we run – Felton and Chandler doing a high PNR with JR, Novak, and Melo in the corners and wing is altogether different than Felton/Chandler doing a high PNR with James White, Ronnie Brewer, and Landry Fields. Opposing teams will crash down on the lane and take their chances with the latter 3 wing players hitting an open 3, so Tyson will be taking his shot through significantly more traffic than if Novak/JR/Melo are behind the 3 point line – and so his efficiency on those shots will be affected by those around him. On principle that makes sense to me, not sure what the stats actually are on that.

    That’s where I think you’re wrong Frank, I don’t think Chandler’s efficiency on those plays will decrease because he will simply refuse to shoot it if there’s 3 guys in the paint. That’s awesome for him and his 70% TS%, but terrible for Felton, who now basically has to go one on one late in the shot clock. That’s the point I was trying to make, that a good offensive team creates good opportunities for finishers, and that efficient finishers make it easier to be a good offensive team. If you’re a team like San Antonio that knows it can create a lot of open corner 3′s, you’re going to need players that are good at making corner 3′s

  87. Frank

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: The assumption is that Carmelo gets lots of hockey assists, and I don’t see any evidence for that beyond “ruruland-sez-so.”

    Not sure why you get to be right when there’s no data. Observation still counts, and when there is no “hard” data either way (as if there was such a thing in basketball stats), I’d say observation is better than just closing your eyes, covering your ears, and screaming “conjecture! nananana!”

    This is not rocket science, but you should really take these often-written words to heart: absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence.

  88. Frank

    Juany8: That’s where I think you’re wrong Frank, I don’t think Chandler’s efficiency on those plays will decrease because he will simply refuse to shoot it if there’s 3 guys in the paint. That’s awesome for him and his 70% TS%, but terrible for Felton, who now basically has to go one on one late in the shot clock.

    Aha – -the Landry Fields / Danilo Gallinari phenomenon.

  89. Juany8

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Dude, the extent of your analysis is making sweeping generalizations about individual players’ play-styles. You say, “X is good at this; trust me, I’ve seen it,” and then occasionally use PER or WS48

    What makes you so upset about WP48 is that it says your favorite basketball player is average and that some of your least favorite basketball players are better than him. That’s what it comes down to. If there’s a fundamental flaw with WP48, the same flaw can be found in every statistic you could ever conjure up to make your point.

    And without those stats, you’re reduced to a guy who uses inductive reasoning to explain why a statistic is wrong.

    No what you don’t get is that no intellectually honest person could possibly ignore the many, MANY credible arguments that serve to shit on WP. You say Ruru is pissed because his favorite player is bad by your stat? Well you are getting angry because your favorite stat sucks at being a stat. You can’t sit here and ignore every single analytical study that doesn’t agree with WP and then pretend you’re being objective or actually being analytical in any way.

    It’s fine and dandy to just assume that you are right and that therefore everyone who disagrees must have some kind of personal or intellectual problem, but that doesn’t work in the real world. No basketball team is ever going to think Reggie Evans is better than Carmelo Anthony. No real basketball decision is EVER going to be based primarily on WP. I’m more sure of this than I am sure of anything I’ve ever posted here.

    The sad thing is you can’t even convince anyone else of your points. You and Owen are the only ones here that still think Tyson Chandler’s TS% is all you need to know about his offensive ability

  90. ruruland

    The interesting thing is that it’s though Jowles doesn’t even pay attention when posters make evidence based arguments using different statistical tools than the all-inclusive single metric that is dismissed by virtually every well respected basketball expert, from Lowe to Daryl I-Got-Hired-As-An-NBA-GM-Because-My-Statistical-Background Morey.

    Just as Owen and THCJ glossed over today’s spatial analysis post, they’ve never actually shown that they ever absorb what is presented.

    That’s how get THCJ claiming I just make provide analysis of play styles.

    Its time to really start questioning the usefulness of engaging these two when time after time, they resort to intellectual dishonesty, limited reasoning skills and outright boorishness.

  91. Frank

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: If there’s a fundamental flaw with WP48, the same flaw can be found in every statistic you could ever conjure up to make your point.

    Exactly!!!! There are no infallible statistical models in this great game. And WP48 is just another imperfect one. So now that you’ve said it yourself, you can get off your Berri-flavored high horse and come down with the rest of us, who don’t think any of the models are infallible, so we fill in the rest of our simple analysis with observation and opinion.

  92. lavor postell

    Frank: Exactly!!!! There are no infallible statistical models in this great game. And WP48 is just another imperfect one. So now that you’ve said it yourself, you can get off your Berri-flavored high horse and come down with the rest of us, who don’t think any of the models are infallible, so we fill in the rest of our simple analysis with observation and opinion.

    +1

  93. Frank

    by the way, I do enjoy having these back-and-forths with THCJ and the rest. It feels a little like I’m thudding my head against the wall over and over again, but even this is better than trying to be optimistic about Larry Hughes, Eddy Curry, Chris Duhon, or Othella Harrington. Really- we’re debating the relative awesomeness of Tyson Chandler, Carmelo Anthony, and our Eastern Conference leading, 13-4, 31-10 under Woodson New York Knicks. We’ve really come a long way.

  94. Thomas B.

    jon abbey:

    hahaha, this is exactly what i said this summer and THCJ labelled as the dumbest thing he’d ever heard or something equally insightful.

    Didn’t Felton have one of those assists last night? If I recall he had some wild drive to the bucket, threw the ball at the rim while falling out of bounds, bounced it off the bottom of the backboard, and then right into the Chandler’s hands for the easy two. Felton does this maybe twice a game. With that much going on, it is kind of hard not to give some credit for the “assist”.

  95. Juany8

    By the way THCJ and Owen simple question, do you have any evidence that Tyson Chandler would have the same efficiency if he increased his overall usage long term, or are you just assuming that? If you don’t have any evidence, just be aware that I might gleefully post BULLSHIT CONJECTURE for an entire post :)

    You need hard evidence to prove people wrong guys, that’s just basic debate. You have the responsibility of backing up the claims that everything previously known is wrong, not the other way around. If the established expert opinion is that Chandler is only a good, not amazing, offensive player, you need indisputable proof that he is not. And guess what, Poppovich is aware of Chandler’s efficiency and still fears Melo more on offense. I’m actually pretty comfortable just taking the best basketball mind in the world at his word, much more so than I am with assuming that Chandler would be capable of sustaining his efficiency with a 25% usage, partly because nobody has ever put up that many shots at the rim before. Chandler would be FORCED to take shots from farther out.

    The leading player in number of shots at the rim per minute is Javale Mcgee, who plays in a super fast tempo system. Now Mcgee gets around 10 to Chandler’s 7, but Mcgee needs to take quite a few shots per minute from farther out just to get to 22 USG. In order for Chandler to get to even 25%, which is not particularly high, he would have to nearly DOUBLE his attempts at the rim per minute, otherwise he would be taking lower percentage shots. Unless you think that Chandler is capable of taking more shots at the rim per minute than any other player in the history of the sport. If Shaq and Duncan couldn’t do it, why would Chandler?

  96. johnno

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: What makes you so upset about WP48 is that it says your favorite basketball player is average and that some of your least favorite basketball players are better than him.

    THCJ — You know what I am going to do tonight? I’m going to watch a basketball game. You should try it sometime. It really is a lot of fun. Seriously. It’s enjoyable. Try it. You might like it.

  97. Thomas B.

    Frank:

    Exactly!!!! There are no infallible statistical models in this great game. And WP48 is just another imperfect one. So now that you’ve said it yourself, you can get off your Berri-flavored high horse and come down with the rest of us, who don’t think any of the models are infallible, so we fill in the rest of our simple analysis with observation and opinion.

    Basketball’s statistical models are like snowflakes.

  98. jon abbey

    Thomas B.: Didn’t Felton have one of those assists last night?If I recall he had some wild drive to the bucket, threw the ball at the rim while falling out of bounds, bounced it off the bottom of the backboard, and then right into the Chandler’s hands for the easy two.Felton does this maybe twice a game.With that much going on, it is kind of hard not to give some credit for the “assist”.

    yeah, there were a few last night, and there have been a ton this season since teams increasingly have decided to try to take the ball out of Melo’s hands and force NY into a pick and roll with Felton and Chandler as often as possible. it’s almost as if they don’t know that Chandler is the best offensive weapon in the history of mankind.

  99. KnickFanInCelticLand

    chrisk06811:
    How much better would we be tonight with Camby getting the 18 mins that sheed/thomas gave us last night.Does he really have a sore foot?is that an actual injury?

    FWIW, plantar fasciitis and calf injuries are biomechanically and statistically correlated. Any tightness in the calf (gastocnemius and soleus muscles) can cause plantar fasciitis.

  100. jon abbey

    Spoelstra talking about Tyson Chandler earlier today:

    “He’s a top-three preparation cover in the league,” the Heat coach said after Thursday morning’s shootaround. “For our coaching staff, he’s a nightmare because he can do it everywhere on the floor that you can imagine.”

    oh wait, that wasn’t Tyson, that was Melo. :)

  101. jon abbey

    WindhorstESPN Brian Windhorst

    Chalmers (finger), Battier (knee), Cole (groin) & Haslem (hip) all gametime decisions for Heat vs. Knicks tonight. All went thru shootaround

  102. nicos

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: And what’s the explanation for Tyson Chandler shooting nearly the same PPS (-0.03) with Felton and Kidd than he did with Toney Douglas and Jeremy Lin?

    As KnickfaninNJ pointed out he’s taking the same shots- just more of them. Now how do you explain that his turnover rate has dropped from 17.1 to 10.7?? Might point guard play have something to do with that? Or that he’s posting a career high in offensive rebound rate? Might Felton’s penetration and far better spacing due to guys that can actually hit jumpers have something to do with it? By picking one stat that has remained constant and ignoring two important ones that have changed pretty significantly aren’t you doing what you accuse everyone else of doing- cherry picking?? Look, I’m with you that even at his low/medium usage he’s a huge, huge offensive plus- if he keeps up these numbers I’d feel comfortable putting him the top ten.

  103. johnno

    jon abbey: I just heard GS coach Mark Jackson on the radio (sounding shockingly intelligent, by the way

    Uh, exactly why is the fact that Mark Jackson “sounded intelligent” so shocking? He was only one of the smarter basketball players who have played for the Knicks over the last 30 years.

  104. jon abbey

    johnno: Uh, exactly why is the fact that Mark Jackson “sounded intelligent” so shocking?He was only one of the smarter basketball players who have played for the Knicks over the last 30 years.

    he came across as a complete idiot as an announcer.

  105. Juany8

    jon abbey: he came across as a complete idiot as an announcer.

    Yea “hand down, man down” is catchy but it didn’t make it seem like he’d be a good coach

  106. Brian Cronin

    Yeah, Mark Jackson career as an analyst never gave off the impression that he would be a good coach. Well, except for the whole “gets along with players” aspect, which is important.

  107. Owen

    Uhh. Mark Jackson. Don’t get me started.

    Although, I have to admit, the warriors look a lot better. Mostly due to Festus Ezeli sure, but I’ll throw Jax a little credit too.

    :-)

  108. Frank

    Owen:
    Uhh. Mark Jackson. Don’t get me started.

    Although, I have to admit, the warriors look a lot better. Mostly due to Festus Ezeli sure, but I’ll throw Jax a little credit too.

    :-)

    A healthy Steph Curry might be helping too. Man that guy is a great offensive player, and if Zach Lowe thinks he is a good defender too, I’m all for it. GSW might make some noise when Bogut comes back – another underrated and really really good player on both ends. Curry, Klay, David Lee, Bogut – that’s not bad.

  109. Will the Thrill

    I get the point about a shot from Kobe that gets rebounded and scored is not a bad shot, but to think that Kobe should get credit for this is laughable to me. The article brought up Dion Waiters. Do you really think this rookie (who wasn’t a very smart player in Syracuse) is making sure that his teammates are in good position to rebound his shot before he shoots? Also, do you really think that Kobe/Melo/Waiters would toss up a shot just because their teammates are in position? Even though these shots turn out to be good for their teams in some cases, I am claiming that they are not intentional from the shooter, and that has everything to do with what teammates they have.

    I actually do believe that there are some instances where the shooter can see that his teammates would get a rebound if he were to miss (those Felton floaters), but those are very rare, and you almost never see Melo, Kobe, or Dion take any of those shots. Taking a shot from outside of the paint has about a 20% chance of being rebounded, and even when their teammates are in position it is far from certain (I would guess even less than 50%) that their teammates would be lucky enough for the ball to stay around the rim and not bounce off too far to rebound.

    These Kobe/Melo/Waiters shots just have a higher chance of being good shots because of who they play with, not because they know their team will secure a rebound. I know this is all conjecture, but so is saying that they decide to shoot (and probably miss) KNOWING that their teammate is in position.

  110. Brian Cronin

    I think that there is some sort of weird yin/yang thing where the Knicks are being run pretty well this season so the Yankees, of course, have to see their ownership fall apart. Brian Cashman doesn’t have the authority to make free agent offers?! Doesn’t that sound like something Dolan or Sterling would do?

  111. Juany8

    Will I don’t get what’s not clear about my point, it’s not that every single shot Kobe takes has some magical ability to be rebounded, it’s that the ones that DID get rebounded are often good enough basketball plays that he shouldn’t be penalized for missing a shot, which is very different from getting credit for creating a shot. Someone that argues that Kobe had the primary responsibility for that shot might be wrong, but penalizing Kobe so you can give big men double credit isn’t the answer.

    That’s my main problem, that in a situation where a team scores 2 points without giving the opponent the ball back, there is no functional difference between making the original shot or the shot off the offensive rebound. You don’t get to score extra points for having 2 shots, you just basically get a redo of your original shot (again, from purely a team perspective) I’m just trying to force what’s happening individually to more closely approximate the point differential actually created. The guy that missed the shot didn’t end up hurting the team after all, and the guy who scores on the putback still gets full credit for a score, which is pretty good

  112. Juany8

    By the way, the logic above means you can’t believe assists are a meaningful thing if everyone is responsible for their own offensive production. Saying a point guard created value for getting an assist is essentially saying the point guard deserves credit for making a play that led to a score.

    Either you ignore assists all together or you have to remove some of the value of the shot and give it to the guy that got an assist. So when Novak makes an open 3 because his man sagged off to stop the Felton-Chandler pick and roll, those 3 points scored don’t just belong to Novak, they belong in part to Felton (and Chandler too but why make things too complicated)

    I do realize that my system would lower the effective value of high efficiency, low usage big men who can offensively rebound, but then that is my goal. I want to redistribute the accumulation of offensive value Berri and co. are attributing to big men and put it back into the guards like it belongs. Then I won’t need some stupid positional adjustment that says Kyle Korver and Kobe Bryant are comparable offensive players but Kyle Korver and Matt Bonner are not. I mean, really!?!?

  113. Will the Thrill

    This is what I had a problem with, I don’t think this occurs often enough (maybe never) to make an effect. I think that shooting and missing could turn out to be a good basketball play due to another person’s work, but before a rebound is grabbed, it is just a poorly executed shot. Whether it happens to help the team is dependent on the rebounder, and the luck of the bounce for the shooter.

    Juany8: Almost like these players see Chandler/Howard standing at the basket alone without a clear way to pass it to them before they get a 3 second call, so they just shoot the shot up realizing it won’t hurt the team if they miss.

  114. Will the Thrill

    The passing is done on purpose, the missing is done on accident. Didn’t say everyone is responsible for their own offensive production.

    Juany8: By the way, the logic above means you can’t believe assists are a meaningful thing if everyone is responsible for their own offensive production.

  115. johnlocke

    Raging debate I see as to the value of missed shots, interaction effects and the like — you’d almost think we didn’t have a game against the Heat tonight. Frankly, I think the odds are quite stacked against us, but at the same time I don’t think we have a lot to lose. If we win, however, it would be HUGE and also simultaneous shut up Charles Barkley.

  116. jon abbey

    Will the Thrill:
    The passing is done on purpose, the missing is done on accident. Didn’t say everyone is responsible for their own offensive production.

    the putting up a shot when you’re driving and doubleteamed and your big man is left free is done on purpose, and it’s the smart basketball play if you make it or if you miss it in a way that allows your big man to easily get it and put it back.

    I get that this fundamentally fucks with the way some people see the sport, but that doesn’t make it any less obviously true.

  117. JK47

    I would think that pretty much any competent NBA point guard could drive to the hole and miss a layup. I don’t think it’s a “skill” really.

  118. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Juany8: You have the responsibility of backing up the claims that everything previously known is wrong, not the other way around. If the established expert opinion is that Chandler is only a good, not amazing, offensive player, you need indisputable proof that he is not.

    Your assumption is that “expert opinion” is currently right. And that’s dishonesty. There’s no fucking proof of that WHATSOEVER.

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