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Monday, December 22, 2014

KnickerBlogger 2012 Over/Under

I asked 12 KnickerBlogger writers to look into their crystal ball & tell me what the future holds for the New York Knicks. Given that clairvoyance doesn’t actually exist, we decided to instead just make educated guesses (and random coin flips) to predict the 2012 season for the Big Apple Crew.

Thanks to Owen, Robert Silverman, Brian Cronin, John Kenney, Michael Z., Jim Cavan, Caleb Hellerman, Kevin McElroy, Dave Crockett, Geoff Hutchinson, and Zach Horst for contributing!

THE VETS
Baron Davis TS%: 52.5
Over: 2
Under: 10

Davis has topped this mark exactly once in 12 seasons. Although as Jamie O’Grady argued, Baron Davis has never had a supporting cast this good, and hence should take less (bad) shots. But our esteemed group of writers and malcontents aren’t buying it.

Tyson Chandler Games Played: 50
Over: 12
Under: 0

Chandler has averaged 25 games missed over the last 3 seasons. Prorated for this shortened season, that means his over/under should really be 46 games. Even though I raised that number to 50, not a single participant bit. Knick fans are hoping our crystal ball is accurate on this one.

Melo AST/36: 3.6
Over: 5
Under: 7

KnickerBlogger writers are kinda split on the point-forward concept. ‘Melo averaged 3.6 assists per 36 in his 4th season, which was his highest mark. I took the under because I don’t think the Knick point guards will do an adequate (or better) job running the offense.

THE ROOKS
Iman Shumpert minutes played: 999.5
Over: 9
Under: 3

My clever way of saying a thousand minutes, which would be about 15 minutes per game in all 66 games. The majority see it occurring, but I went under. Why? I could see D’Antoni falling in love with either Baron Davis or Mike Bibby (see Carter, Anthony) which means Shumpert would be the odd man out. Also a dozen DNPs means the average minutes per game shoots up to 18.5.

Jorts Games Played: 32.5
Over: 5
Under: 7

Another near split decision for Josh Harrellson to step on the court officially in half of the Knicks games. Personally I like him for the over because:

  • Hunter and Jordan were DNP-CDs in the last preseason game
  • New York has no depth at the 4/5 spots
  • D’Antoni can’t ski Shawne
  • Harrellson can shoot threes and rebound, which gives him precisely one more skill than Novak

IT’S PRONOUNCED WITH AN UMPTY
Balkman Total Rebounds: 250
Over: 2
Under: 10

Balkman only has to play about 1000 minutes to accomplish this. Unfortunately to earn that much court time, he needs D’Antoni to call his number. Renaldo has looked great in preseason with his all around high energy game, but only Owen & Mike Z. see that translating into regular season time.

THE KNICKS
Knicks Def. Eff Rank (under means better): 12.5
Over: 8
Under: 4

How much will Tyson Chandler and Iman Shumpert help the Knick defense? Not that much say the majority, but I think if I lowered the number to 15, there would have been more than 4 Unders.

Knicks Seed in the East (under means top 3): 3.5
Over: 8
Under: 4

A tricky question, because you’d have to take into account not only New York’s improvement, but the rest of the top teams as well. If you think there is a good chance that Orlando trades Howard, which would mean the Knicks would have to beat out one of the Heat (no chance), the Bulls (not likely), or the Celtics (possible). A lot of ifs, but a few of us see it happening.

Playoff Games Won: 6.5
Over: 5
Under: 7

Six and a half playoff games means the Knicks last until game 7 of the second round. This was a close vote, with a majority taking the under. Does this mean New York basketball is back?

46 comments on “KnickerBlogger 2012 Over/Under

  1. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Probably the one I wrestled the most with was Melo’s assist totals. If they really commit to it, I guess he would have to exceed 3.6, right? But I just tend not to bet on anything that involves “he has to have his best season ever at that stat for it to come true.” Similar reason I went against Baron Davis.

    Balkman…man….I sure hope I’m wrong and D’Antoni finally lets the guy play.

  2. Frank

    FWIW there have been very few players that have played for >500 min for D’Antoni that have posted a TS of <52.5. Duhon, Larry Hughes, Quentin Richardson, Jefferies. Felton had a 52.4. I'm going to go with the over with Baron Davis.

    I'm going to go with the over on Shump – this kid's defense is enough to keep him on the floor.

    Lots of buzz on Twitter re: the Knicks and Kenyon Martin. I think we would be a strong contender for the ECF and would give CHI and MIA a run for their money in that series if we landed him. He's not great but he plays defense, has attitude, is good enough on offense especially for a bench player, and we needed 2 more microfracture knees on the team anyway.

  3. joe

    i want to talk about the one on josh harrelson…………..remember our 4/5 line up is stat,jefferies,novak,chandler,and jerome james…………….out of these people 2 start and the rest is second unit now with that being said please compare the talent………..jared jefferies can defend but thats about it…..all novak does is shoot……….and james has no wrap sheet yet so now you have jorts hes young and very coachable…………he can shoot very good range he can defend and rebound and he does the little things like dive on the floor etc he kinda reminds me of charles oakley with a jump shot. but please believe he will have impact this year

  4. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    I would have liked a question of “On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the most ‘done’ and 1 being the least, how done is Mike Bibby?”

    The over/under would have been 8.

    And I would take the over.

  5. Frank

    @5 – Isola and Berman — lots of others but I think they are linking to those two primarily. Hahn didn’t think it was going to happen though.

  6. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    I am sure that the Knicks will make him an offer, and the fact that he’s not back until March will likely help him be more willing to take a small contracts (figuring that he’ll just get another contract after a few months of play). I just wonder if he wouldn’t prefer going somewhere where he could start. He’s still good enough to be a starter.

  7. TDM

    I agree with most of the above with the 2 exceptions for Melo’s assist per 36, and Shump playing 1K minutes. I like D’Antoni, but he tends to be stubborn to a fault. I see him sticking with Fields, and maybe inserting Toney at the sg when and if Baron gets healthy and Bibby gets up to speed with the offense.

    With regard to K-Mart, he would be a great addition for the squad, HOWEVER, he cannot sign with an NBA team until the season is over for his Chinese team, which means March 2012. That doesn’t help. Even assuming he gets signed in March, he still needs to gel with the team. Not to mention, his best days are far behind him. If the Knicks wanted a tough guy that rebounds, they should have snagged Reggie Evans before the Clips picked him up for the $1.3M exception. Evans still pulled down over 11 boards per game last season for the Raptors.

  8. Owen

    from previous thread:

    “Owen is back, that is almost as exciting as Balkman’s reemergence (OK, not really). welcome back, dude!”

    Thank you, thank you. Had to check out and take care of a few things on the matrimonial front. Finally left my spreadsheets in my mother’s basement long enough to meet a nice girl. But back and very excited for a new season of Knicks basketball. I think the long wait for a decent team is over and it feels really good, even if watching Melo and Amare is part of the package. I don’t think in my entire Knickerblogger career we have ever gone into a season expecting a winning record. That’s the kind of change I can get behind….

  9. DRed

    Owen:

    “Owen is back, that is almost as exciting as Balkman’s reemergence (OK, not really). welcome back, dude!”

    I always thought ‘Owen’ was David Lee, but is it possible he’s really Balkman in disguise?

  10. citizen

    Speaking of K-Mart, was 2000 the worst draft in (relatively) recent memory? When K-Mart, Hedo, Jamal, & Przybilla were the best 1st round picks, then something’s wrong…in the 2nd round there was only Redd and, yes, Brian Cardinal

  11. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    I don’t get how you can be described as “hard-working” when the reason you’re not playing in the NBA is because you gained too much weight.

  12. Jim Cavan (@JPCavan)

    Z-man:
    What, no over-under for regular season wins? I think a good number is 39.5 and I’m taking the over.

    I’m on record with a recent post at projecting 41-25. Even after the recent signings, I stand by it. I for one wouldn’t be surprised at all if we finished third in the East.

  13. Frank

    Will be very interesting to see how MD’A and Woodson decide to defend Rondo. We know from cruel experience that TD just cannot guard him. We may be seeing much more of Shump Shump than expected.

    I had said in a previous post 44-22 but after seeing the debacle that was Amare’s offense yesterday, I’ll back off to 41-25 like Jim. Safety in numbers.

  14. TDM

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin): I don’t get how you can be described as “hard-working” when the reason you’re not playing in the NBA is because you gained too much weight.

    When they say ‘hard-working’ they are referring to his digestive system.

  15. tmoneyny

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):
    I will never understand why Reggie Evans was not more in demand.

    I agree with you for most teams in the NBA, but I don’t know if he would have been a perfect fit for the Knicks. He is the true definition of a one-trick pony, and rebounds are the one thing that I don’t think will be a huge problem for the team. Chandler, Melo, Fields, and Shump all are (or look like they will be) good rebounders for their position.

    Then again, he did sign for the vet’s minimum, which would have been what we could have offered. Just saying he probably makes a bigger impact elsewhere.

  16. Frank

    Al Iannazzone just tweeted that Brook Lopez broke his foot and is having surgery tomorrow. Figure that’s at least an 8 week injury, and a nice-knowing-you Deron Williams…

  17. alsep73

    What’s the Nets’ cap situation for next year? If Dwight is really fixated on playing in Brooklyn, could they just sign him outright while retaining Deron?

    Also, when is the trade deadline in this bizarro season?

  18. Z-man

    I know it was vs. the disfunctional Nets and preseason and all, but Balkman has looked really good in a herky-jerky kind of way. I really hope that D’Antoni can find 10-15 mpg for him for the first 10 games or so.

  19. Robert Silverman (@BobSaietta)

    DRed: I always thought ‘Owen’ was David Lee, but is it possible he’s really Balkman in disguise?

    Check Balkman’s twitter feed. I think it’s pretty unlikely they’re the same person unless “Renaldowen” has the most severe case of multiple personality disorder this side of Sybil.

    But I second the emotion. Welcome back OWoWen!

  20. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    What’s the Nets’ cap situation for next year? If Dwight is really fixated on playing in Brooklyn, could they just sign him outright while retaining Deron?

    Yeah, they can sign both outright next season. They’ll have roughly $37 million in cap space next year.

  21. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    I agree with you for most teams in the NBA, but I don’t know if he would have been a perfect fit for the Knicks. He is the true definition of a one-trick pony, and rebounds are the one thing that I don’t think will be a huge problem for the team. Chandler, Melo, Fields, and Shump all are (or look like they will be) good rebounders for their position.

    Then again, he did sign for the vet’s minimum, which would have been what we could have offered. Just saying he probably makes a bigger impact elsewhere.

    I meant more just in general, that he took this long just to sign for the vet minimum.

  22. alsep73

    Thanks, Brian. Then Lopez’s injury really doesn’t matter, unless the Lakers wind up swooping in and giving up both Pau and Bynum for him.

  23. Unreason

    W: 40 L: 26
    Seed: 3
    Exit: ECF!

    I don’t want to say the Knicks are better than the Bulls and will beat them before losing to Miami in the eastern conf finals….
    who am I kidding? I do want to say it, desperately. But I know I shouldn’t say it because, we probably won’t be as well-rounded, deep, or good defensively. My emotionally satisfying confabulation in support of this unlikely march to the ECF rests on this shaky ground:

    We’ll match up well with them:
    0: Tyson vs Joakim will be out-freakin’-standing to watch and be a wash. Hard to think of a more fun match-up at the 5
    +1: Neither Amare nor Boozer will play effective D against each other. Boozer will get more boards, some big, but STAT is a man when it matters, while Carlos Boozer is a stat-padding girly-man. They’ll both probably be slightly hobbled by then.
    +1: Melo will be better at neutralizing Deng than vice versa and is a better facilitator and crunch time guy.
    -1: Rip will look uncomfortably like Reggie Miller coming off endless screens, TD and Fields will both be incapable of stopping the bleeding and as a result… don’t …. say it!… JJ could see way too much PT… no!!!.
    0: Rose will average 36-37 extremely hard mpg all season and despite being a physical freak will be a crucial half a step slower. BD will just have gotten into playing shape and will rise up and remind everyone of the monster D he’s still capable of (I don’t really believe this, but it’s so tempting). Rose will take 10 to 12 more shots than he should in several games,… while BD remains disciplined (ha!).
    -1: Their bench will be better, even if the Knicks’ pans out as hoped
    +1: By crossing and tightly clenching every anatomical appendage at my disposal for 48 mpg, I will either alter the balance of actual unseen cosmic forces in the Knicks’ favor or enter into a beatific aneuryism-induced world in which I am free to choose that reality.

  24. nicos

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):
    I would have liked a question of “On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the most ‘done’ and 1 being the least, how done is Mike Bibby?”

    The over/under would have been 8.

    And I would take the over.

    Judging from the preseason, the moniker “the corpse of Mike Bibby” gives him way too much credit.

  25. Unreason

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    A more fun matchup at the 5?

    Dwight Howard vs. a healthy Andrew Bynum?

    You’re right, that’s the top match-up when Bynum’s healthy. I personally don’t enjoy watching Bynum enough for it to be as fun for me though. Mostly, I’d like watching Howard destroy Bynum. Not sure why. Pure anti-Laker sentiment probably. Joakim and Chandler are so evenly matched and high-energy; constantly active and in-your-face, that even though they aren’t as effective, I’d like watching them more.

  26. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Here’s my take on the season:

    Point guard play will be horrendous. Toney might bounce back to his decent TS%, but he remains among the league’s worst in assist numbers. Baron Davis slightly improves the shooting percentage of those around him, but he shoots so poorly himself (and given the green light on all open shot attempts, he sets a career high in 3PA/36) that he barely cracks the positive side of WS48. Mike Bibby is no different than he was on the Heat: an old point guard who can’t do much of anything.

    Fields sees his per-game minutes reduced, and, while keeping a relatively high TS% and REB% and low TOV%, he doesn’t “earn” starters’ minutes. Iman is a “defensive sparkplug,” and does all sorts of things that “high intangibles” guys do, but shoots the three so poorly that he can’t produce any significant value over time.

    Carmelo Anthony earns another All-NBA third-team spot by being far less efficient than Paul Pierce while having significantly higher per-game totals. No one seems to care because of his “star” power.

    Amar’e Stoudemire continues to forget that he was a great P’n’R player, and settles for 15-foot jumpers because, hey, that’s why he’s a max player: to shoot the ball. No one seems to care because of his “star” power. Jared Jeffries does a full 180 every time the ball is passed his way, a la George Michael of Arrested Development fame.

    Tyson Chandler does all of those awesome things he’s known for, but never returns to the .69 TS% that made him an All-NBA quality player despite the “game changers” he’s matched with in the frontcourt. Pundits place the blame on Chandler’s game, arguing that anyone can be great next to Anthony and Stoudemire.

    Cock Jowles buys NBA League Pass and becomes a Nuggets fan; Jon Abbey celebrates, but is unfortunately and inappropriately assaulted by a dolphin while on vacation in Bermuda and goes mute from the trauma.

    Happy NBA season, y’all!

  27. Unreason

    nicos: the moniker “the corpse of Mike Bibby” gives him way too much credit.

    How about “Mike Bibby’s tombstone”? Does that have a sufficiently immobile ring to it?

  28. Phil Brank - Alien Extraordinaire

    Jeez, is THCJ optimistic about ANYTHING!?

    His prediction: Universal failure across the board. Fail to meet every expectation.

    Is he an actual knicks fan?

  29. Unreason

    Phil Brank – Alien Extraordinaire:
    Jeez, is THCJ optimistic about ANYTHING!?

    His prediction: Universal failure across the board. Fail to meet every expectation.

    Is he an actual knicks fan?

    THCJ and every other occasionally out-of-line KB stats curmudgeon who lives to poke holes in the blindly optimistic opinions of less knowledgeable fans like me are big part of what makes this site fun. Proud pessimism and a certain amount of snarkyness come with the “advanced stat” territory, I think. Though I don’t buy into it fully, it makes for a much richer conversation. And I’ll continue to feel that way until it’s my turn to be on the sharp end of their pointed comments for some extended period, and hopefully even then.

  30. JK47

    My predictions:

    Team defense and rebounding will improve, enough for the Knicks to rank in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency.

    The offense will struggle at the beginning of the season but will steadily improve. The addition of Baron Davis to the lineup will result in a style of play that more resembles SSOL. At the end of the day NYK will rank in the top 5 in offensive efficiency.

    The Knicks will be maddeningly inconsistent at times but will really start to gel around April 1. They will win a postseason series, perhaps two.

  31. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    The offense will struggle at the beginning of the season but will steadily improve. The addition of Baron Davis to the lineup will result in a style of play that more resembles SSOL. At the end of the day NYK will rank in the top 5 in offensive efficiency.

    One thing is clear is that Amar’e really really really needs a decent passing point guard to be good. I mean, we all knew that already, but I don’t we knew that he would be this bad without a good point guard getting him the ball. In the preseason he looked exactly the same as he did in the second half of the season, which was not good. Baron Davis better get healthy quick (or, in the alternative, Melo better play at the same level that he did in the second half, in which case the team can live with Amar’e’s inefficiency)!

  32. Unreason

    Wouldn’t it be great if they renamed the garden something like Bankers Life Fieldhouse? Saying it out load, I bet that Pacers fans can almost hear the echoes of historic clashes.

  33. Count de Pennies

    Jim Cavan (@JPCavan): The Honorable Cock Jowles: Cock Jowles buys NBA League Pass and becomes a Nuggets fan

    GREATEST. CHRISTMAS STORY. EVER.

      

    “You’ll shoot your eye out, kid.”

    (Cautionary warning offered by THCJ to Melo and/or any other high usage, low efficiency chucker)

  34. Unreason

    @42 Too soon to say I think. I doubt he’ll return to Nash-ville in his efficiency, but I think he knows how to score once he gets comfortable with or without a great point.
    I’m more concerned that he show a big improvement on team D and boxing out. He still seems painfully clueless on both to me. I don’t think I’ve ever seen him look really good. Effort or no effort, he may just be an irremediable defensive dork, which would suck.

  35. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Count de Pennies: “You’ll shoot your eye out, kid.”

    (Cautionary warning offered by THCJ to Melo and/or any other high usage, low efficiency chucker)

    Meanwhile, their agents are saying, “IF THE BALL IS PASSED TO YOU, SHOOT IT. DON’T THINK ABOUT POSSIBLE BENCHINGS. JUST SHOOT UNTIL THEY BENCH YOU.”

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