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Thursday, July 31, 2014

Knick Injury Over/Unders for the 2012-13 NBA Season

As the season rapidly approaches, one of the main concerns facing this New York Knicks team is worries over injuries to the key players on the Knicks. In this piece, I’ll be setting over/under on games played for the Knicks’ top eight players and you all can make your picks as to whether said player will play less games than the amount I list or more (Mike already did one for Iman Shumpert, so I’ll be skipping him this time around).

Carmelo Anthony

Did you know that Carmelo Anthony has only had two seasons where he has failed to miss at least five games? And the last time he failed to miss at least five games was seven years ago. So Melo is bound to miss a few games this season. However, he also tends to be tough enough to rarely miss a lot of time. This year, though, he might be playing more power forward than he has in the past. So the question is, will playing power forward more cause Melo to miss more time this year or will he miss the same five or so games he routinely misses?

Will Carmelo Anthony play under or over 75.5 games?

  • Over (57%, 133 Votes)
  • Under (43%, 102 Votes)

Total Voters: 235

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Amar’e Stoudemire

The current diagnosis for Amar’e Stoudemire is that he will be out for six to eight weeks due to an injury in his surgically repaired left knee. Eight weeks would see him back for the Knicks’ game in London on January 17th. So this over/under really depends on whether you think 6-8 weeks is accurate or if Amar’e will miss more time.

Will Amar'e Stoudemire play under or over 44.5 games?

  • Under (62%, 140 Votes)
  • Over (38%, 86 Votes)

Total Voters: 226

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Tyson Chandler

Much was made about how Tyson Chandler, who has had some major injury issues in the past, turned a corner with the Mavericks and Knicks, durability-wise. While essentially true, he still missed seven games with the Mavericks and four games with the Knicks. He recently left a preseason game with a knee injury that does not appear to be serious. Still, there is always cause for worry with Tyson Chandler, so this over/under asks how much faith you have that he will continue his relatively strong durability this season.

Will Tyson Chandler play under or over 69.5 games?

  • Over (69%, 137 Votes)
  • Under (31%, 63 Votes)

Total Voters: 200

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Raymond Felton

Felton had exceptional durability his first four seasons in the NBA, but in the last two seasons he has had a few nagging injuries, missing seven and six games respectively. This under/over presumes that he will be durable once again this year. Do you agree or disagree?

Will Raymond Felton play under or over 79.5 games?

  • Under (53%, 99 Votes)
  • Over (47%, 87 Votes)

Total Voters: 186

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Jason Kidd

Kidd is a tough son of a gun, so he does not miss games due to nagging injuries. If he isn’t seriously hurt, he’s going to play 80 games a year. The problem is that occasionally he does get seriously hurt. When he does, he misses a lot of time. This over/under basically asks whether you feel that his age will lead to more serious injuries than normal (he did miss a lot of time last season).

Will Jason Kidd play under or over 69.5 games?

  • Under (53%, 88 Votes)
  • Over (47%, 77 Votes)

Total Voters: 165

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J.R. Smith

Smith is also a durable player, but he missed a lot of the preseason, which is not a good sign. This over/under is based on the worry that his nagging injuries might be serious.

Will J.R. Smith play under or over 75.5 games this year?

  • Over (66%, 104 Votes)
  • Under (34%, 53 Votes)

Total Voters: 157

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Steve Novak

Novak does not seem to be the type of player who will miss much time during the season (unless he’s getting DNP-Coach’s Decisions) and this over/under reflects that view.

Will Steve Novak play under or over 77.5 games this year?

  • Over (84%, 126 Votes)
  • Under (16%, 24 Votes)

Total Voters: 150

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Marcus Camby

Camby is already set to miss opening night and staying healthy has never been Camby’s strong suit, so this over/under asks you how much faith do you have that he’ll be healthy this season after starting the season not playing due to injuries? Or do you think this is going to be more like his previous tenure in New York where the most games he ever played was 63 (granted, he also played in 46 out of 50 games during the lockout-shortened season of 1999).

Will Marcus Camby play under or over 65.5 games?

  • Under (77%, 120 Votes)
  • Over (23%, 35 Votes)

Total Voters: 155

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Apologies to Ronnie Brewer, Pablo Prigioni, Kurt Thomas and Rasheed Wallace for not including them in this post. If you wish to guess how many games each of those four players will play, as well, feel to make your guesses in the comments section!

28 comments on “Knick Injury Over/Unders for the 2012-13 NBA Season

  1. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I really don’t think that the distinction between power forward and small forward really matters much in the NBA these days. If you mean that Carmelo will be at greater risk of injury because of larger bodies on him, I think we’re imposing what we believe to be true (that playing in the post is inherently more physical in the NBA game) without any empirical evidence for it. Isn’t it possible that a driving or slashing guard in the lane would be at greater risk for injury than a player in the low post with an arm on his back?

    Unless you’re putting a 6’1″ PG against a 6’11″ C, I don’t see any weight in us presuming that the modern PF role is any more bruising than another, save a C who gets fouled on a good portion of his attempts (Shaq, Howard). Maybe at the Y things are different, but there are significant risks with every play style in the NBA.

  2. Brian Cronin

    Perhaps, but both Lebron and Melo have said that playing power forward takes more physical effort from them. I suppose they could be imagining things, but I’d tend to take their words on stuff like the physical impact of a position change, as that’s not something that the naked eye would miss. That is one of the few places where the player is likely the best observer, as they’re the ones with the extra bruises, etc.

  3. Bruno Almeida

    I think moving Carmelo to PF is the right move only if Novak is the starter beside him, and Brewer / Shumpert (when he’s back) start at the 2… this way we should have a very good defense, a good enough offense and the ability to change paces with J.R and Kidd.

    if Kurt Thomas starts our offense will be incredibly stagnant.

  4. thenamestsam

    DS:
    Knicks/Nets are now postponed again.

    It’s a shame because I was really looking forward to it, but I think it’s definitely the right move. The subways are still going to be completely messed up and there just isn’t any other way for people to get there. Opening the building with half a crowd would have been too big of a bummer.

  5. knicknyk

    That means our first game this season will be against Miami. Not looking forward to that. Good news is that Knicks have more practice time & Camby maybe rested enough to play now. Going to be a really tough game.

  6. DS

    knicknyk: That means our first game this season will be against Miami. Not looking forward to that. Good news is that Knicks have more practice time & Camby maybe rested enough to play now. Going to be a really tough game.

    Knicks/Nets are now postponed again.

    Yeah it looks like the Heat game will happen. The Penn Station A/C subway line will open… not sure about NJT or LIRR.

    Camby will be rested but I hear the practice facility lost power so he might be out of sync. I hope he starts at PF, but I suspect it will be KT40.

  7. DS

    Harden just signed an $80 million extension!!

    Don’t get me wrong I LOVE Harden and would love to have seen OKC’s core of 23 year-olds grow old together. But I think some of the reporting on this trade was a little unbalanced. K-Mart is not Harden but it’s also not fair to be so dismissive his shooting efficiency. Maynor will be a good play maker off the bench. There’s also prob. lot of risk paying 4 guys $70 million.

    I think KB’s own Jim Cavan gets it just right:
    http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/the-thunder-without-harden-it-could-work/?ref=sports#comments

  8. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    DS:
    Don’t get me wrong I LOVE Harden and would love to have seen OKC’s core of 23 year-olds grow old together.But I think some of the reporting on this trade was a little unbalanced.K-Mart is not Harden but it’s also not fair to be so dismissive his shooting efficiency.Maynor will be a good play maker off the bench.There’s also prob. lot of risk paying 4 guys $70 million.

    The Knicks are paying 3 guys $55M, and one of them isn’t good at basketball anymore. The Thunder just traded away what is, in my opinion, the best SG in the game, and he’s only 23! The risk, to my mind, is that Westbrook is as good as the eyetest and interaction-effect assumptions suggest, and that his contract, not Harden’s, isn’t the one sinking your chances of repeating as West champs.

    And Martin is 28 and likely not improving much, regardless of his teammates. I’m curious: If his efficiency stays as low as it was last season, what will the excuses be?

    And Maynor is not good at basketball.

    http://www.thenbageek.com/players/232-eric-maynor

    Maybe he excites the part of your brain that likes athletic guard play, but he sure as hell ain’t a “playmaker.” He’s a guy who doesn’t do anything well, and shows no sign of making a leap to an “average” player, much less a “great” one. He’d probably beat your ass in a YMCA pick-up game, but in the NBA, he’s shit.

  9. DS

    The fact that the Knicks shouldn’t be paying 3 guys $55 million is not an argument that the Thunder should be paying 4 guys $70 million.

    No one said Maynor will be great, but I think Harden’s backup PG skills for 15 mpg will not be missed as much as some suggest. It actually looks like Maynor’s assist numbers are much better. Is that wrong?

    I doubt Eric Maynor even has a YMCA membership, so your point is moot.

  10. Juany8

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: The Knicks are paying 3 guys $55M, and one of them isn’t good at basketball anymore. The Thunder just traded away what is, in my opinion, the best SG in the game, and he’s only 23! The risk, to my mind, is that Westbrook is as good as the eyetest and interaction-effect assumptions suggest, and that his contract, not Harden’s, isn’t the one sinking your chances of repeating as West champs.

    And Martin is 28 and likely not improving much, regardless of his teammates. I’m curious: If his efficiency stays as low as it was last season, what will the excuses be?

    And Maynor is not good at basketball.

    http://www.thenbageek.com/players/232-eric-maynor

    Maybe he excites the part of your brain that likes athletic guard play, but he sure as hell ain’t a “playmaker.” He’s a guy who doesn’t do anything well, and shows no sign of making a leap to an “average” player, much less a “great” one. He’d probably beat your ass in a YMCA pick-up game, but in the NBA, he’s shit.

    Uhhh… He’s just about average in everything but scoring efficiency, which is kind of what you want from a backup point guard. Maybe if you weren’t so blind to anything but scoring efficiency and rebounds when evaluating players, you wouldn’t wonder why everyone’s opinion is so different from your own

  11. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Depends on who you’re giving the money to. Risk is a scary thing, but when you strike gold with your picks, you do what you can to keep them around. Plus, none of them have injury concerns.

    What about the Heat? I don’t like Bosh all that much, but are the Heat wrong for having three max players? I don’t think so.

  12. steveoh

    I get that you can look at their shot charts and efficiency to compare Harden and Martin, but that’s somewhat in a vacuum. Stylistically, they’re just so different that you can’t just slot in one for the other.

    Basically, the Thunder traded a guy who can get his own shot and create shots for others for a guy who needs others to do it for him – which means that someone else has to step up in that role for them. It could be Westbrook and Maynor splitting those duties.

    Or they could just play differently to tailor to Martin’s skill set of moving without the ball. Either way, it’ll be interesting to watch.

    But yeah, by any measure, it’s a dropoff from Harden to Martin.

  13. Juany8

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: lol unimportant

    INTERACTION EFFECTS STATS PLS

    It’s funny that you ENTIRELY ignore defense and somehow sit here and pretend you’re being more objective than I am. Has it ever occurred to you that if Harden was half the defender Westbrook is, OKC would have done exactly what you wanted and either maxed Harden or traded Westbrook. If Faried could defend like Taj Gibson, he’d easily be getting 33+ minutes a game.

    By ignoring literally half the game (completely ignoring the interaction effects you seem to disdain) players that have trouble getting on the court because of their defensive deficiencies can easily become superstars by your system. Unfortunately, real basketball requires defense, nobody is going to take you seriously if you’re calling major defensive liabilities the best players in the NBA…

  14. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    steveoh:
    Basically, the Thunder traded a guy who can get his own shot and create shots for others for a guy who needs others to do it for him – which means that someone else has to step up in that role for them. It could be Westbrook and Maynor splitting those duties.

    Or they could just play differently to tailor to Martin’s skill set of moving without the ball. Either way, it’ll be interesting to watch.

    But yeah, by any measure, it’s a dropoff from Harden to Martin.

    I disagree with this assessment of Martin completely, and I don’t even think he’s a great player. Shot creation is largely a myth.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdbzB0jK4rc

    Possession breakdown:

    1) Martin takes a three and hits it. The defender has adequate time to close, but doesn’t. Own shot.

    2) Scola clears out, his defender follows him, and Martin hits a nifty jumper with a hand in his face. Own shot.

    3) Martin jukes his defender with a hard feint and drives to the hoop, laying it up over 2 defenders. Own shot.

    4) Ball fake and an off-balance jumper in a quick iso. Own shot.

    5) Curls off a screen and gets up before his defender closes. Own shot.

    6) Transition heave from Scola for an uncontested layup. Not own shot, but he got ahead of the defense. Partial credit.

    7) Defender gives him a cushion after a hard step and pass, steps back for an easy three on the return pass. Own shot.

    8) Cuts backdoor and beats his defender. Nice pass from his big man. Partial credit, but his speed enables the easy layup. And one.

    9) Three with a hand in his face after a hand-off. No teammate interaction to draw defender away. Own shot.

    10) Draws foul on three-point attempt. His teammates have no effect on the play.

    11) Outlet pass ahead to Martin alone, drives one-on-one against Varejao and draws the foul. Own shot.

    12) Drives hard and beats his own…

  15. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Juany8: It’s funny that you ENTIRELY ignore defense and somehow sit here and pretend you’re being more objective than I am. Has it ever occurred to you that if Harden was half the defender Westbrook is, OKC would have done exactly what you wanted and either maxed Harden or traded Westbrook. If Faried could defend like Taj Gibson, he’d easily be getting 33+ minutes a game.

    By ignoring literally half the game (completely ignoring the interaction effects you seem to disdain) players that have trouble getting on the court because of their defensive deficiencies can easily become superstars by your system. Unfortunately, real basketball requires defense, nobody is going to take you seriously if you’re calling major defensive liabilities the best players in the NBA…

    What percentage of defensive plays does Synergy attribute to “team defense?” I know that they don’t count transition attempts and other types of defensive possessions.

    And how bad would Faried have to be on defense to offset his ridiculous offensive efficiency?

  16. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Juany8: t

    Oh, and you presume that Westbrook got his money because of a legitimate defensive superiority rather than a host of other factors that influence player salary, like points per game. Has that occurred to you? That the very thing we both admit we can’t quantify is the thing you assert as being a significant difference between the two players?

  17. njasdjdh

    Juany8: It’s funny that you ENTIRELY ignore defense and somehow sit here and pretend you’re being more objective than I am. Has it ever occurred to you that if Harden was half the defender Westbrook is, OKC would have done exactly what you wanted and either maxed Harden or traded Westbrook. If Faried could defend like Taj Gibson, he’d easily be getting 33+ minutes a game.

    By ignoring literally half the game (completely ignoring the interaction effects you seem to disdain) players that have trouble getting on the court because of their defensive deficiencies can easily become superstars by your system. Unfortunately, real basketball requires defense, nobody is going to take you seriously if you’re calling major defensive liabilities the best players in the NBA…

    I agree that defense should be a consideration, however, is there any evidence that Westbrook is a good defender? And, even if Westbrook is a good defender, given his position, his potential impact would seem to be limited.

  18. ruruland

    njasdjdh: I agree that defense should be a consideration, however, is there any evidence that Westbrook is a good defender? And, even if Westbrook is a good defender, given his position, his potential impact would seem to be limited.

    Any evidence? Is that a joke?

    No: steals, rebounds and blocks tell us everything we need to know about defense.

  19. nicos

    njasdjdh: I agree that defense should be a consideration, however, is there any evidence that Westbrook is a good defender? And, even if Westbrook is a good defender, given his position, his potential impact would seem to be limited.

    On the ball defense isn’t important? I’d say it’s more important than ever.

    Also on Martin/Harden: I’m not sure anyone has brought up the fact that OKC has two great screeners in Collison and Perkins which should really help Martin. And Harden was at his best in the pnr- who is going to be his partner in Houston? Asik, I’d guess but he’s not ideal- no pick and pop potential and very foul prone so I don’t know if you want to risk him picking up cheap moving screen fouls on the offensive end. I still think Harden will have an excellent year but I wonder if his pnr efficiency might take a hit.
    Also

  20. Juany8

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Oh, and you presume that Westbrook got his money because of a legitimate defensive superiority rather than a host of other factors that influence player salary, like points per game. Has that occurred to you? That the very thing we both admit we can’t quantify is the thing you assert as being a significant difference between the two players?

    The very thing YOU can’t quantify, I’m sure Presti is more than capable of making judgements about player defense. This has been the smartest gm in the league for several years now, all of the sudden we’re supposed to assume he cares more about flashy players than the small things that lead to winning? Why is it so hard for you to accept that the statistical analysis done in many front offices is light years ahead of what’s freely available online. You’re really going to sit here and say Harden got traded because Presti went nuts over Westbrook’s points per game?

  21. Juany8

    njasdjdh: I agree that defense should be a consideration, however, is there any evidence that Westbrook is a good defender? And, even if Westbrook is a good defender, given his position, his potential impact would seem to be limited.

    Westbrook guarded Dwyane Wade admirably in the Finals. Harden got lit up but both Lebron and Wade. He’s not dominant, but he can guard anyone at both guard positions and is capable of providing strong help on rolling bigs better than most other point guards. Harden is an average defender right now, with the potential to become above average. Westbrook could be the best point guard defender though’

  22. njasdjdh

    ruruland: Any evidence? Is that a joke?

    No: steals, rebounds and blocks tell us everything we need to know about defense.

    That was an honest question. I’m not sure what your “steals, rebounds and blocks” line is referencing, but, for example, this is what Hollinger has to say:

    “Defensively, Westbrook has the talent to be awesome, but in reality is pretty average. Synergy Stats rated him the worst defender on the team and decidedly below the norm for his position; the Thunder weren’t any better or worse with him on the court defensively, and opposing point guards had a 15.7 player efficiency rating against him, according to 82games.com. Westbrook is actually too aggressive for his own good at this end, often running himself out of position and overgambling, offsetting his advantages in size, quickness and athleticism.”

    So, if his Synergy, his on/off and his 82games/position numbers weren’t great I was just curious what the evidence for him being a good defender was.

  23. njasdjdh

    Juany8: Westbrook guarded Dwyane Wade admirably in the Finals. Harden got lit up but both Lebron and Wade. He’s not dominant, but he can guard anyone at both guard positions and is capable of providing strong help on rolling bigs better than most other point guards. Harden is an average defender right now, with the potential to become above average. Westbrook could be the best point guard defender though’

    I agree that his defensive potential is immense, I am just waiting for the evidence that he’s tapping into that NOW. As for the Wade point, IIRC, Wade was hurt and didn’t play well for large chunks of last postseason.

  24. ruruland

    njasdjdh: That was an honest question. I’m not sure what your “steals, rebounds and blocks” line is referencing, but, for example, this is what Hollinger has to say:

    “Defensively, Westbrook has the talent to be awesome, but in reality is pretty average. Synergy Stats rated him the worst defender on the team and decidedly below the norm for his position; the Thunder weren’t any better or worse with him on the court defensively, and opposing point guards had a 15.7 player efficiency rating against him, according to 82games.com. Westbrook is actually too aggressive for his own good at this end, often running himself out of position and overgambling, offsetting his advantages in size, quickness and athleticism.”

    So, if his Synergy, his on/off and his 82games/position numbers weren’t great I was just curious what the evidence for him being a good defender was.

    Nice job. I thought you were parroting THCJ, which is to say, there is no way to empirically determine what constitutes good defense outside of you know what…..

    The Synergy numbers are surprising. The opp. per is less surprising to me given how frequently Westbrook is the last defender coming back in transition because of how frequently he finds himself in camera row — which is a sin from the pg position to many coaches.

  25. njasdjdh

    nicos: On the ball defense isn’t important?I’d say it’s more important than ever.

    I was more referencing the fact that the defensive impact of the best smalls is negligible to that of bigs so I’m not sure that gaps in defense between smalls should be viewed as important as gaps in defense between bigs. I was also thinking of this line from Zach Lowe in his analysis of the Curry and Lawson deals today on Grantland, “Curry is a minus defender, but very few point guards can affect the game defensively” as well as Kevin Pelton from Basketball Prospectus/The Pacers recently mentioning that because of the handcheck rules making it nearly impossible to completely contain anyone on the perimeter that elite defense in those positions isn’t as important as it used to be. Again, this is not to say that it doesn’t matter, but just that it doesn’t matter as much as it would when talking about other positions.

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