Comments on: Is This the Way the Melo-Drama Ends? Not With a Bang But a Whimper?

By: New Guy

New Guy — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 22:27:13 +0000

@51, it’s just my opinion, but those salary figures will probably be meaningless this time next year. If the cap is going down that much, salaries are getting slashed.

By: New Guy

New Guy — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 22:24:46 +0000

I really hate that this is being leaked out. It smells of Denver trying to tell the league “this is our best offer, please top it.” They are rank amateurs. Somebody leaked this with a purpose, and it wasn’t to get the deal done as constituted.

As for the rotation, I agree Gallo would have to head to the bench and head the second unit (not the worst thing). But the Gallo-Melo-Stoudemire-Felton-Fields unit would probably be unleashed for stretches of “small ball”, and I imagine it would be lethal if used correctly.

Team would still be one quality big man away from being championship caliber. In an ideal world, the new CBA would prevent the Celtics and their bloated payroll from being able to resign Kenrick Perkins this summer.

By: Caleb

Caleb — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 22:16:43 +0000

@50 I don’t mean they would literally be unable to make a move. Just, they’d be limited to whatever exceptions are allowed in the next CBA, or a star-for-star trades the likes of which are pretty rare (can’t remember one, actually, although the new CBA could open the door).

Figure the cap in 2012-2013 will land somewhere between $50 million and $62 million, depending who wins the lockout.

Meanwhile, the Knicks are paying out:
– Amare $19.9m
– Carmelo $21m (just guessing – a $65m extension over 3 years)

Technically – that would be it. But you’ve got 10 roster slots left. Just keeping Gallo and Fields…

– Gallo $8.4m cap hold
– Fields TBD (no more rookie deal for a 2nd rounder – even as a restricted FA he’s gonna cost a few million)

If we want the rest of the roster to be better than replacement-level, you’ve got:

- 2011 1st rounder (@$1.5 mil)
- Douglas ($2m)
- Mozgov ($3.1m)

Plus Walker, and anyone else half-decent we sign between now and then.

If CBA still has a Bird rule, the Knicks COULD go over the cap to sign everyone I just listed. But they’d be way over the cap. There might be some version of the mid-level exception, but most people think exceptions will be cut back or even eliminated in the next deal.

It’s not a bad hand to play buy it’s basically putting all your chips in the pot. It’s a gamble. A really strict CBA might even limit the Bird rule, in which scenario we’d have to give up Gallo and/or Fields, to make room.

By: Z

Mon, 07 Feb 2011 21:15:34 +0000

Caleb: But beware… this trade would eliminate all flexibility in the Knicks’ future. .

Caleb-- you've been saying this from the get-go, but I don't understand why. Knicks have $12 million in expiring contracts up in 2012, and another $3.5 million that is non-guaranteed (Mozgov). These can all be used in a trade, which is how any outside-of-the-organization player would have to be obtained, once our own players (Gallo and Fields) are extended. Even if Carmelo extends for $20 billion the Knicks would still have the same flexibility going forward. (The fact that they are keeping Fields and Gallo actually makes them MORE flexible, as they have good players to package with those expiring contracts should a Paul, Howard, or Willaims become available.

By: Frank

Frank — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 19:21:01 +0000

Hard to know re: Mozgov – sounds like he was a total unknown until 2008 when Khimki picked him up. A guy with his size and athleticism would’ve had coaches etc. all over him as a 12 year old if he were born in the US, but sounds like he was totally under the radar in Russia. Who knows what kind of coaching he got before David Blatt got a hold of him? Now he’s in the big leagues with real coaches and an opportunity. Hard to compare him to any American 23 or 24 year old, or even a 24 year old Marc Gasol, who came up in Spain – a relatively basketball-crazy country by European standards. He really is amazingly athletic for such a big dude, and seems to really WANT to get better. Great combination. Even if he ends up being a Przybilla type, I think that’d be great.

Meanwhile – one thing that has gone sort of unnoticed is how much better he has been about turnovers. Prior to this 4 game stretch (in which he’s played about 105 minutes), he had 26 turnovers in ~260 minutes (1 every 10 minutes). Since then, 4 turnovers in 105 minutes (1 every 26 minutes). 105 minutes is a very small sample, but that’s gotta be promising.

By: Caleb

Caleb — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 19:06:50 +0000

Frank O.: Statistically speaking, you are right. But he may be an anomaly in that he played in a lesser pro league for several years. I believe it could take two years before we know his ceiling. I can only think of the Gasol brothers as centers who played overseas before turning pro. Pau came in and from the start seemed to show who he was early on, although I think his last three years, 8th, 9th and 10th, I think, have shown remarkable improvement.Do you know of other foreign centers who played in pro leagues back home and made their way to the NBA?

Tiago Splitter... Luis Scola if you want to call him a center. Gasol is a year older than Mozgov now, but he was pretty good from the minute he stepped on an NBA floor... 16 rebounds in his second game... 59 TS% his rookie season. I just can't think of any players who were truly bad as 24-year-olds, but rebounded to be good players. (sorry, Thabeet fans). I hold off judgement on Mozgov because 300 minutes isn't enough to say if he's actually bad or just getting his feet wet. And his last 80 minutes were solid.

By: Frank O.

Frank O. — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 19:00:58 +0000

Caleb: I agree… and the sample size is still tiny. If he gets to around 1,000 minutes this season (which would take about 20 mpg from here out) I think we’ll know more or less what we have. He is 24 so I don’t expect leaps and bounds development next year and beyond.

Statistically speaking, you are right. But he may be an anomaly in that he played in a lesser pro league for several years. I believe it could take two years before we know his ceiling. I can only think of the Gasol brothers as centers who played overseas before turning pro. Pau came in and from the start seemed to show who he was early on, although I think his last three years, 8th, 9th and 10th, I think, have shown remarkable improvement. Do you know of other foreign centers who played in pro leagues back home and made their way to the NBA?

By: Caleb

Caleb — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 18:38:12 +0000

Frank O.: I think he’s better than that, but when players are this new it’s all speculation.

I agree... and the sample size is still tiny. If he gets to around 1,000 minutes this season (which would take about 20 mpg from here out) I think we'll know more or less what we have. He is 24 so I don't expect leaps and bounds development next year and beyond.

By: Frank O.

Frank O. — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 18:28:37 +0000

You know, I still see Mosgov as a very raw talent. Kirilenko seems to think Mos will be a star, and aside from it being his countryman, I think Kirilenko may be right.
I suspect because he’s blonde and white and European, I find myself wanting to compare Mos to Rik Smits, who only averaged 30 minutes twice in his lengthy career.
Smits was bigger, but far less athletic than Mos. Fundamentally, they are both sound players. I like Mos’s midrange shot, a shot that was very good for Smits, and he moves rather well. Smits struggled with more athletic centers. Mos’s defense is greatly improved since his first showing earlier in the season.
But if the Knicks can get 25 minutes from the guy and he can get 8-10 boards and 8-10 points, with 2 blocks, I’d be pretty happy about that.
I think he’s better than that, but when players are this new it’s all speculation.

By: Caleb

Caleb — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 17:58:52 +0000

If this deal happens, Melo will spend most of his time at the 4, with Gallo at the 3. I don’t see Mozgov ever playing more than 25 mpg and I wouldn’t bank on even that, just yet. Hopefully one of our backup centers is solid for 20 mpg, but that still leaves Stoudemire playing most of his time at the 5, etc.

In my world as GM, I would hold off, knowing that Randolph will be a big time player in a couple of years, and that the Knicks have more salary flexibility in a Chandler-Randolph world than with Melo at $20-million plus.

But as proposed, it’s not a bad deal. IMO Melo would be a very good player in NY – think 56-58 TS% as a high-volume scorer, with excellent rebounding for a 3, and good ball movement. It probably gets the Knicks to the level of a 50-win team right off the bat, with future improvement as Fields, Gallo and maybe Moz develop. We have a draft pick this summer. A 55-win team with a young-ish core isn’t something to sneeze at.

We’d hurt on D but not much more than now. We could go stretches with a huge lineup which is how a lot of recent teams (LAL, ORL, BOS) have had success. We know Gallo can be super-effective without a ton of shots, so he fits well.

Key point: it hedges against the risks of the next CBA. If the cap comes in at $50 million, or there are major restrictions on trades – e.g. a franchise tag, allowing a player’s current team to make a MUCH bigger offer (instead of 6 years vs. 5), or anything similar – the Knicks lose the chance of adding Carmelo or any of the big 2012 names.

Trading for Carmelo and giving him a mega-extension means we can’t “add” Howard or CP3 as a future star, but if that’s ever in the cards and sign n trades are still allowed, we could always upgrade in 2012 by trading Carmelo (or Amare) straight up.

But beware… this trade would eliminate all flexibility in the Knicks’ future. Amare/Carmelo/Gallo/Fields MIGHT be the core of a contender. Lose one more impact guy, and we’re stuck.