Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Game Thread: Knicks vs Bucks

The Bucks seem to have had our number of late, but I have a good feeling about this one, despite the fact that both Redd and Bogut seemed to have revived somewhat of late. Here are Thomas B’s thoughts from his Week in Advance….

n the two losses to the Bucks, the Knicks had eFG% of 44.4 and 38.3. That is well below the Knicks’ average eFG% of 50.4. The Knicks need to move the ball and get good shots against a team that is not especially strong on defense (106.3, 13th, 49.6 eFG%, 16th).

What to watch for: Get to the line. The Bucks defense gives up a ton of free throws (32.9, 30th). Playing defense with their hands, rather than their feet, as Clyde would say. Getting to the line will be helpful if the Knicks are having another poor shooting night against the Bucks. As an added bonus, the fouls will get you to the Buck’s thin bench quicker.

What to watch for 2: Hope that the Bucks coaching staff does not realize that Luke Ridnour is not as good as Sessions. Sessions plays really well against the Knicks. I’m not sure why Ridnour is starting over Sessions, but I’ll take whatever keeps Sessions on the bench.

What to watch for 3: Bogut. Big, good footwork, soft touch, and efficient (54.9 eFG%) are all adjectives you don’t want to read when describing an opposing center. This is particularly true for the Knicks who have huge problems stopping those sorts of players. New York has to keep Bogut from catching the ball deep. The Knicks don’t have the size to force Bogut out, but the Knicks can pressure the entry passes so the Bucks have a harder time getting Bogut the ball.

68 comments on “Game Thread: Knicks vs Bucks

  1. Owen Post author

    Lee just got a three point play against Bogut, but in general the aussie sort of eats him up. That at least is my memory of it….

  2. o_boogie

    our defensive rotations look slow compared to the lakers and suns game, giving up too many open looks and not enough hands in the shooters face.

  3. BigBlueAL

    If the Knicks lose tonight, it will mean an 0-4 week after Boston on Sunday. All the positive talk after early in the week wouldnt hide the reality of an 0-4 week and an 11-16 record if they lose tonight.

    Suffice it to say, the Knicks better wake up and win tonight….

  4. BigBlueAL

    With the way the crowd is sounding I feel like I am watching a pre-season game. I will like to reiterate my point about Q earlier, when he is off, which is most of the time, he is AWFUL.

  5. David Crockett

    Err… I’m not one to gossip, and you didn’t hear this from me, but we can’t hit the broad side of a barn so far this evening.

  6. BigBlueAL

    What is up with the rims tonight, they sound so tight its like they are playing in some cheap college gym.

  7. Owen Post author

    Wow, Lee just airballed a ball from 1 foot….

    Sometimes, I feel his critics might be right. That was one of those times….

  8. Z

    Wow, Lee just airballed a ball from 1 foot….
    Sometimes, I feel his critics might be right. That was one of those times….

    hahahaha

  9. Owen Post author

    It’s funny, but watching Harrington shoot, hot or cold, I get the same feelings I get at a craps table….

  10. italian stallion

    Man, the rims are louder than I can ever remember them…

    I noticed the same thing. What’s up with that?

  11. BigBlueAL

    What a surprise, Knicks get back within 4, they try to go to Q-Rich in the post on back-to-back possessions, he turns it over both times leading to back-to-back fast-breaks and the Bucks are back up by 12.

  12. BigBlueAL

    Oh and someone tell the Knicks NBA players can make wide-open 3’s, especially players as good as Jefferson and Redd.

  13. BigBlueAL

    Ive never seen so many open jumpers as the Bucks are getting tonight. Horrendous 1st Half, especially against a bad Bucks team. This game is straight out of the Isiah era.

  14. italian stallion

    It’s hard for me to understand why the Knicks keep getting blown out by the bucks, especially at home, with 2 days rest, coming off a confidence building roach trip. It makes no sense.

  15. BigBlueAL

    Just to clarify, only reason I am so frustrated tonight is because of all the good vibes this team had generated over the past week, to come home and have a stinker of a 1st half like this is a reminder of the past few seasons.

    Still love where this team is headed and the future is certainly bright, but I guess Im so desperate for at the least a playoff team that games like tonight are vital if this team is going to make the playoffs.

  16. TDM

    The Knicks are shooting poorly and getting to the line, but it hasn’t made a rats-ass difference. The turnovers are killing them as well. Is it too soon to start rooting for a better draft position?

  17. italian stallion

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
    Granted this is before tonight’s results, but check out the Knicks with the 6th best odds in the East of making the playoffs!!!! Granted after tonight and the whooping they will get on Sunday their playoff odds will take a hit.

    I have a feeling he mixed up Toronto and NY. The Raptors aren’t playing well so far, but IMO they will make a good run at the playoffs soon.

  18. jon abbey

    The turnovers, Qrich’s shooting, and lack of effort killed us tonight.

    actually Harrington showing up late and Thomas leaving with a stomach virus after only 7 minutes did it, we’re down to a six man rotation now.

    I will say that while I think he tries hard pretty consistently, I’ll be ecstatic when Q is finally gone.

  19. BigBlueAL
    The turnovers, Qrich’s shooting, and lack of effort killed us tonight.

    actually Harrington showing up late and Thomas leaving with a stomach virus after only 7 minutes did it, we’re down to a six man rotation now.
    I will say that while I think he tries hard pretty consistently, I’ll be ecstatic when Q is finally gone.

    Thats one thing I wont take away from Q. He does try hard every game, one of the few guys who plays D on a consistent basis and he rebounds very for his size. But his offense is so bad right now and in this system he is a major liability IMO.

  20. d-mar

    I was at the game, and like a bunch of you posted above, it was just like one from the Isiaih era. No life, no fight, wide open shots for the opponent. I think it’s a big setback for this squad, and really does render those “moral victories” out West meaningless. After Boston, they’ll be 11-16 and on a four game losing streak. It will be a big challenge for D’Antoni to get that positive feeling back and turn things around quickly.

    PS Being at the game, I did notice the “loud” rims, on one Bogut dunk it sounded like he was tearing down the backboard.

  21. david

    For some reason, we just match up really badly with milwaukee.

    Look — this is a 30-35 win team at most. With a hell of a coaching job, it will be on the outside of that range. What that means is that we’ll lose games to pretty bad teams sometimes. Also, we’re a team that relies almost exclusively on the 3 and the pick and roll. When we’re not shooting well, there is absolutely no one on the roster who can make his own shot by going 1on1; there’s little offensive rebounding; if we’re not shooting well, teams can collapse on the duhon-lee pick and roll and leave guys somewhat open on the perimeter.

    There was a great post a few days ago about how being dependent on the 3 was a high variance strategy — it will mean we will beat or be in games with teams better than us sometimes, but also that we will lose to bad teams sometimes.

    The key for the season is developing the players we are going to keep — Lee, Nate, Gallinari, maybe Duhon, and maybe harrington — into solid rotation players/starters in a D’Antoni offense, getting rid of the deadwood if we can, and getting the toxicity out of the team’s system so we can move forward. When those are the goals, you can’t expect consistency….

  22. d-mar

    For some reason, we just match up really badly with milwaukee.
    Look — this is a 30-35 win team at most. With a hell of a coaching job, it will be on the outside of that range. What that means is that we’ll lose games to pretty bad teams sometimes. Also, we’re a team that relies almost exclusively on the 3 and the pick and roll. When we’re not shooting well, there is absolutely no one on the roster who can make his own shot by going 1on1; there’s little offensive rebounding; if we’re not shooting well, teams can collapse on the duhon-lee pick and roll and leave guys somewhat open on the perimeter.
    There was a great post a few days ago about how being dependent on the 3 was a high variance strategy — it will mean we will beat or be in games with teams better than us sometimes, but also that we will lose to bad teams sometimes.
    The key for the season is developing the players we are going to keep — Lee, Nate, Gallinari, maybe Duhon, and maybe harrington — into solid rotation players/starters in a D’Antoni offense, getting rid of the deadwood if we can, and getting the toxicity out of the team’s system so we can move forward. When those are the goals, you can’t expect consistency….

    I agree with most of what you said, and acknowledge we will lose to bad teams. But I don’t think last night was a matter of shots not falling (the Bucks actually didn’t shoot that well either) it was really a lack of effort. One thing we’ve been saying all year about this team is that they compete night after night, even on back to backs. When you’re at home playing in front of people who fork over big $$ to see you play, you’ve gotta come up with something better than what I saw last night.

  23. ess-dog

    The Bucks have some impressive parts. I predict they will trade Redd before the deadline – he is lacking in D unlike the rest of the squad, he is not a Skiles player.
    And how good is Devin Harris? He is making a claim for Lebron to go to the Nets. They could be good if Yi and Lopez mature. Maybe we will end up worse than I thought. Although there are too many teams worse than us this year (Indy, Charlotte, OKC, Wiz, etc.) I predict a 8 through 13 pick in the draft. Who could we get there?
    As far as pick ups this year, if we don’t go for Hendrix, Jemarreo Davidson is playing well in the D league.
    And if anyone can come up with a realistic trade idea to send steph to a “west-coast playoff team” and get back a couple of contracts that expire before 2010, I’d love to see them because I feel like that’s what Walsh is working on right now…

  24. 2010

    “And if anyone can come up with a realistic trade idea to send steph to a “west-coast playoff team” and get back a couple of contracts that expire before 2010, I’d love to see them because I feel like that’s what Walsh is working on right now…”

    he might be working on that, but its not gonna happen. what playoff team is going to say, if we add steph, we make the playoffs or if we get steph, that will put us over the top?

    Kidd for starbury straight up if dallas wanted to try something new but its not realistic because the reason they got kidd in the first place was for leadership-not exactly stephs strength.

    only other potential west coast team is sacromento if they want to save money next year, but i think they could do a lot better with that type of trade with a team other than the knicks.

    Steph should have been bought out when he would take a mil less than his contract. now we are stuck with him. which is fine caus hes an expiring contract.

  25. 2010

    im torn about which way i want the team to go. before the season i was hopping for a bad year this year and a good year next year based on our draft picks. when we got off to the hot start, i got excited and started thinking about playoffs. now that i look at it though, id be more excited about a good draft pick than about getting bounced in the first round.
    part of me would rather they tank the season and even trade away guys that are not part of the long term plan.
    the problem is it seems like there are some historically bad teams this year so a good pick will be tough to get.

  26. jon abbey

    there are only 3 teams out of range: Washington, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City.

    as I said earlier this week, we do need to start losing as much as possible, though, 20-25 wins for the season would be the best long-term thing for the franchise (complete with Curry coming back for a string of 35/15 games, as long as I’m wishing).

  27. 2010

    there are only 3 teams out of range: Washington, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City.
    as I said earlier this week, we do need to start losing as much as possible, though, 20-25 wins for the season would be the best long-term thing for the franchise (complete with Curry coming back for a string of 35/15 games, as long as I’m wishing).

    Three teams out of reach, but i also find it hard to believe we will finish worse than the kings, warriors, grizzles, clippers, or bobcats, especially after watching them play. thats 8 teams with more ping pong balls right there assuming we are worse than all the other mediocre teams like the pacers.

  28. jon abbey

    we’ll see, we’re pushing our guys really hard. if any of our rotation guys get hurt, we’re pretty much incapable of beating anyone. some of the recent wins have been pretty miraculous, I don’t expect that to keep up. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up under 30 wins, and it seems as if that’s what management wants, with how slow they’ve been to try to add any rotation help.

  29. Thomas B.

    there are only 3 teams out of range: Washington, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City.

    as I said earlier this week, we do need to start losing as much as possible, though, 20-25 wins for the season would be the best long-term thing for the franchise (complete with Curry coming back for a string of 35/15 games, as long as I’m wishing).

    Suprise, suprise I disagree.

    We should win as much as possible this year as this is a very weak draft class. If you are outside of the top five you wont get a very good prospect. I think the Knicks should play as well as they can this year, and give this year’s pick to Utah if the pick is outside of the top ten. By doing this we will have the 2010 pick outright. The unprotected draft pick in 2010 is much more valuable as the 2010 draft class project deeper than 2009, and because if Utah has that pick unprotected they could end uup with a top 3 pick. We simply cant risk that.

    I see the best chances for the Knicks’ long term success in doing well this year, and getting lottery luck next year.

  30. Z

    Since 1990 only twice has the team with the worst record gotten the #1 pick (Dwight Howard and LeBron’s years). Over the past four years the 9th worst (Bulls), 6th worst (Blazers), 5th worst (Raptors), and 6th worst (Bucks) records in the league have landed the #1 pick.

    The Knicks have done their time for rigging the 1985 draft. It is time for the lottery gods to smile on us for once and have our little ping pong ball come up next May…

  31. 2010

    jon,
    i agree. if one of our rotation guys gets hurt than any number of losses is possible.

    thomas,
    ive seen you write that before. are you suggesting that after we know where the pick is, if it is out of the top 10 then we trade it to utah for our 2010 pick?

    i like a lot of guys in this draft, rubio, jennings but i dont really know much about the 2010 draft

  32. jon abbey

    “I think the Knicks should play as well as they can this year, and give this year’s pick to Utah if the pick is outside of the top ten.”

    I don’t think this is actually an option, what makes you think it is?

  33. o_boogie

    for all you guys on the frank williams bandwagon, yes he is averaging 21 ppg, but he is doing it on 36% shooting. this is exactly what we do not need, might as well keep playing roberson.

  34. o_boogie

    someone we could give a look is malik hairston of the nbdl’s austin toros. 19.3 ppg on 51% shooting and 53% from 3. he has good size for a combo guard, 6′ 6″, and was a good college player.

  35. Thomas B.

    “I think the Knicks should play as well as they can this year, and give this year’s pick to Utah if the pick is outside of the top ten.”

    I don’t think this is actually an option, what makes you think it is?

    I dont even know if we can do that. Ive been searching for an answer for months. My understanding of protected draft picks (forgive me they did not teach this at Rutgers) is that the team that would get the pick does not have the automatic ight to it, if the pick is within its protection. I assumed that the team that has the pick basically owes a pick to the other team in any of the range of drafts proscribed in the trade agreement. The team can give up that pick in any year, but they do not have to if the pick is protected.

    If we cannot do what i suggest, then your position is a strong one to take. The only thing is that we have to be out of the lottery in 2010. Giving up a 2010 lottery pick will really hurt.

  36. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger)

    for all you guys on the frank williams bandwagon, yes he is averaging 21 ppg, but he is doing it on 36% shooting. this is exactly what we do not need, might as well keep playing roberson.

    Over half his shots are for 3. His eFG isn’t that bad: 47%. He was much better in his first NBDL stint: 50%. It’s only 10 games in…

  37. jon abbey
    “I think the Knicks should play as well as they can this year, and give this year’s pick to Utah if the pick is outside of the top ten.”
    I don’t think this is actually an option, what makes you think it is?

    I dont even know if we can do that. Ive been searching for an answer for months. My understanding of protected draft picks (forgive me they did not teach this at Rutgers) is that the team that would get the pick does not have the automatic ight to it, if the pick is within its protection. I assumed that the team that has the pick basically owes a pick to the other team in any of the range of drafts proscribed in the trade agreement. The team can give up that pick in any year, but they do not have to if the pick is protected.

    pretty sure that there’s no choice involved from NY’s perspective, if the pick is in the protected range, it stays. if it isn’t, it goes.

  38. Thomas B.

    “I think the Knicks should play as well as they can this year, and give this year’s pick to Utah if the pick is outside of the top ten.”
    I don’t think this is actually an option, what makes you think it is?

    I dont even know if we can do that. Ive been searching for an answer for months. My understanding of protected draft picks (forgive me they did not teach this at Rutgers) is that the team that would get the pick does not have the automatic ight to it, if the pick is within its protection. I assumed that the team that has the pick basically owes a pick to the other team in any of the range of drafts proscribed in the trade agreement. The team can give up that pick in any year, but they do not have to if the pick is protected.

    pretty sure that there’s no choice involved from NY’s perspective, if the pick is in the protected range, it stays. if it isn’t, it goes.

    Fair enough. In light of that, what you offer is pretty sound advice.

  39. RichP

    Ricky Rubio was taken off the mock draftboard at draft express because Jonathan Givony thinks he might not come over this year. So not only is the biggest name in the draft questionable, but if he doesn’t come over this year that likely bumps other pgs up in the draft. I hope we just gun for the playoffs and give the Jazz this years pick. If we dont get a top 3 pick, draft position won’t matter much.

  40. BiggieSmalls

    RichP — Dont be so sure about Rubio.. He’s been hurt a bit but may still come out if a situation presents itself.

    Besides — do you really think we have a shot at being a top ten team?

  41. Z

    “I hope we just gun for the playoffs and give the Jazz this years pick.”

    Celtics, Cavs, Magic, Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz, Blazers, Nuggets, Rockets.

    We’d need to win more games than at least two of these teams in order to not lose our 2010 draft pick.

  42. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger)

    found this old article while looking for an answer to the rule on protected draft picks.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1700818

    read what Dr. Jack has to say…yikes.

    I’ve said some stupid things on this blog, but (I hope) never anything as dumb as these two:

    “I’m surprised that the Phoenix Suns would give up Stephon Marbury. He’s a great acquisition for the New York Knicks… Clearly, new president/GM Isiah Thomas is going to work in New York.”

    Wow.

  43. GAx

    Man, how high was Isiah riding when he first took over? Flipped some valuable contracts that could have helped us but got All-Star talent, actual playoff seats at MSG, high hopes for the upcoming draft, etc.

    Yeah that went well.

  44. Z
    found this old article while looking for an answer to the rule on protected draft picks.
    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1700818
    read what Dr. Jack has to say…yikes.

    I’ve said some stupid things on this blog, but (I hope) never anything as dumb as these two:
    “I’m surprised that the Phoenix Suns would give up Stephon Marbury. He’s a great acquisition for the New York Knicks… Clearly, new president/GM Isiah Thomas is going to work in New York.”
    Wow.

    Does this sound familiar?:

    “If the NBA was a western movie, Isaiah would have been the cowboy who stops the gallooping horses from taking the carriage off the cliff…Zeke made the huge trade for Stephon Marbury & Penny Hardaway. And a few days ago, he traded Keith Van Horn, Michael Doleac, and a second round pick for Tim Thomas and Nazr Mohammed. In my opinion, he’s done a great job.”

    This from the 1st post ever made by Knickerblogger (back when there was only one commenter, and he spoke in Swahili…)

  45. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger)

    Does this sound familiar?:

    “If the NBA was a western movie, Isaiah would have been the cowboy who stops the gallooping horses from taking the carriage off the cliff…Zeke made the huge trade for Stephon Marbury & Penny Hardaway. And a few days ago, he traded Keith Van Horn, Michael Doleac, and a second round pick for Tim Thomas and Nazr Mohammed. In my opinion, he’s done a great job.”

    This from the 1st post ever made by Knickerblogger (back when there was only one commenter, and he spoke in Swahili…)

    You’re right I did like the Marbury trade (guess I didn’t understand the salary cap back then.) But at least give me some credit by not chopping off my sentences. The actual quote was:

    “In my opinion, he’s done a great job on each move, except for the last one.”

    Yes I did like the Marbury trade, the Norris/Spoon trade, taking the rookies off the IR, but I didn’t like the Van Horn/Thomas swap.

  46. Z

    “You’re right I did like the Marbury trade (guess I didn’t understand the salary cap back then.)”

    In defense of the “stupid” things Dr. Jack said at the time, it is difficult to rewind back to December 2003, and if we could, most of us probably had similar initial reactions to the trade. (The only reason I could single you out, KB, was because you record all your thoughts in your archive (which is one of my favorite features of this blog because it allows us to remind ourselves what we thought at the time, and see how its evolved).

    I’m sure I agreed with what Ramsey said at the time. I was excited to dump the garbage and get an all-star all at the same time. I even liked Marbury his first few years. With hindsight, obviously the Knicks would be better today if they hadn’t made the trade. But for people to say they knew it would result in flat-out disaster, I think they are fooling themselves.

  47. latke

    fun with marbury trades

    to knicks: larry hughes, tyrus thomas, speedy claxton
    to bulls: zaza pachulia, stephon marbury
    to hawks: kirk hinrich

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=509~1981~356~3032~150~2016&teams=4~1~18~18~18~4&te=&cash=

    why it would work: only true asset bulls give up is tyrus thomas. In exchange they lose the 40 million left on hinrich’s contract, along with the 20 million they’d have to pay thomas and hughes next year. Bulls also pick up pachulia, who is (sadly) a major upgrade over Aaron Gray. Hawks lose pachulia, who had a little value to them, but also ditch the 1.5 years left on claxton’s contract, and pick up a real player in hinrich, even if he’s not gonna play till february. Knicks lose marbury and pick up several problem children, all of whom expire at the end of 2010. They also get tyrus thomas for their troubles.

    to knicks: mikki moore, brad miller, francisco garcia
    to hornets: tracy mcgrady
    to sacramento: stephon marbury, rasual butler, junk
    to houston: tyson chandler, jason thompson

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=509~2817~84~1767~984~511~2755~556~575~3462~532&teams=23~23~23~23~10~23~18~18~18~10~3&te=&cash=

    knicks do pick up a longer contract, but it is a reasonable one on a young player (garcia). In exchange, they lose the marbury distraction for some decent players who will expire in 2010. Houston loses t-mac for the purposes of chemistry, gets a some decent big guys. New Orleans takes a risk on mcgrady. Sacramento clears a lot of cap space.

  48. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger)

    I’m sure I agreed with what Ramsey said at the time. I was excited to dump the garbage and get an all-star all at the same time. I even liked Marbury his first few years. With hindsight, obviously the Knicks would be better today if they hadn’t made the trade. But for people to say they knew it would result in flat-out disaster, I think they are fooling themselves.

    Another thing to consider is how bad the Knicks were under Layden. I mean he had drafted Sweetney, Lampe, and Vranes, and none were on the active roster. So next to Layden, Isiah Thomas looked competent.

Comments are closed.