With that contract I don’t think he’s an asset… I wouldn’t call him a liability, either, though.`

Anybody hear the report that the heat have interest in Marbury (according to Steph himself, of course). I can’t imagine Miami bringing in a cancer to a locker room that may already have problems meshing egos.

@193 – I pretty much agree, and I’d much rather have Randolph than Okafor, all things considered. I would just say Emeka is an asset, not a liability. We could probably find a 3rd team (OKC) to take him, anyway.

If it came to that, I think the biggest problem would be having a pair of turnover machines – him and Stoudemire – next to each other. It could get ugly. Probably his minutes would go down to 25-30 and they’d alternate…

Hornets get: Anthony Randolph, Eddy Curry, Vladamir Radmanovic, Brandon Bass, and the draft rights to Ricky Rubio

Warriors get: Ray Felton, Marcin Gortat, Wilson Chandler

Timberwolves get: Andres Biedrins, Danillo Gallinari

Nuggets get: David West, Monta Ellis

Orlando gets: Emeka Okafor

Knicks get: Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony

(*it all works salary wise. Here at MSG we have a 6 team version of the trade machine)

Randolph projects to me to be a Josh Smith type of player. But with more Odom offensively.

190 is why I have a problem with your take on Randolph. He is already a good NBA player. I can’t say exactly how he’ll do, but objectively he’s got a very good chance to be a solidly above average player.

You also cannot just ignore potential. Some guys will, in fact, reach their potential. (And I never said don’t trade AR for CP3… I just said I expect him to be a very good NBA player. Not as good as Paul. I said I would put the chance of that around zero.)

Your first group is 100% irrelevant because none of them were good NBA players at any point. You even say that, but there’s really no point in including them once you consider their first two NBA seasons.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=korolya01&y1=2007&p2=telfase01&y2=2006&p3=tskitni01&y3=2004&p4=brownkw01&y4=2003
It’s about like if I put a list of LeBron, MJ, Magic, and Hakeem to demonstrate that some guys do reach their potential.

The pattern I see with the 2nd group is that all three had weight issues, didn’t stay anywhere near NBA shape, and had major holes in their games (some maybe caused by weight). This is not a totally inappropriate group of comparison based on their first two NBA seasons, but it’s a worst case. If you want to assume the worst about every player, no one is ever going to be a good NBA player.
Sweetney and Curry are crystal clear examples of guys who did not put forth even a bit of effort. Maybe they wouldn’t have reached their theoretical draft-day ceilings even with great work ethics, but their work ethics were clear problems. (Haven’t followed Butler too closely since he left NYK, but he went undrafted in large part because of character concerns as I remember.)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=sweetmi01&y1=2005&p2=curryed01&y2=2003&p3=butleja01&y3=2006&p4=randoan01&y4=2010
Could Randolph end up with the other guys (and Darius Miles and whoever else)… Sure. It’s possible. Is it a reasonable most likely case scenario based on the information we have? I would say no.
Also, beside scoring efficiency (were he’s the worst) he’s the best in that group too.

Scoring efficiency is a stat that *tends* to improve for very young players as they develop. If you take an average 19, 20 year old in the NBA, his TS% will improve. This is really not the case for rebounding or blocking shots. Maybe a very young, raw player (KG, for example, played more on the perimeter at first and his rebounds were low). It’s definitely not the case for other-worldly athleticism. Ast% and TO% are also numbers that tend in the right directions as you develop. Players tend to smarten up and play better D for a while until they decline physically (probably different curve at different positions).
There’s no guarantees, but given all these factors plus his high FT% and FTA/36… It is not appropriate to compare AR to guys who got drafted in the top 5 based on a 1-on-0 work-out or international youth competitions.
Comparing him to guys who could score in the NBA right off the bat, but had other holes, motivational issues, and were fat (when Randolph is anything but fat).

Other comparable guys to look at based on their 20 year old seasons can be found in Mike’s article: http://knickerblogger.net/2010/07/similarity-scores-for-the-new-knicks/
Joe Smith isn’t great (but he couldn’t rebound or defend like AR), but the rest is a collection of All-Star-through-Hall-of-Fame talent. There is no Jackie Butler on that subjectively accumulated list. No Sweetney (who wasn’t 20 in the NBA). No Eddy Curry.
That doesn’t mean AR *will* do/become anything… but it’s a good sign.