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Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Four Factors: Finals Game 1

Let’s check out the four factors* from yesterday’s game.

TM  |PTS |POSS |  OE  |  eFG |  TO | OREB | |FT
ORL | 75 |85.0 | 88.2 | 35.1 | 9.4 | 20.0 | 27.3
LAL |100 |88.5 |113.1 | 47.8 |10.2 | 32.6 | 16.9

Just a total ass kicking. The Lakers shot worse than their season average, but they limited the Magic to a meager 35.1% eFG. Los Angeles also dominated the offensive glass, using a team effort with no player pulling down more than 3. This is surprising because Orlando was the second best defensive rebounding team on the regular season. The Magic did win eek out a minor victory in turning the ball over, but had a decided edge at the line. Obviously Orlando will have to bring a better effort in game 2.

*Note: in previous examples I included team rebounds, which I don’t think should be included in four factor analysis. I’ve left them out in this calculation.

8 comments on “Four Factors: Finals Game 1

  1. Reebok1303

    There isn’t anywhere else to put this, but Chris Bosh has confirmed that he won’t extend his deal before 2010. And while this is good news for NY, I would still rank Bosh a definite fourth at this point in the 2010 FA class well behind James, Wade, and Stoudemire, and just ahead of Nash (because of age concerns) and don’t view him as anything more then a complimentary piece to a championship team.

    It’s a shame that we play in the same division as the Raps, making a trade less unlikely, because if any “superstar” player could be had cheaply this off season, I think this would be the guy. (Even the Raptor fans have turned on him (http://raptorsrepublic.com/blog/2009/06/01/time-to-trade-bosh/). The Knicks could go any number of directions, including something like Chandler, the #8, and Harrington for Bosh, or something a little larger like Hughes, Harrington, Chandler, and the #8 for Bosh, Kapono (I’m admittedly a little TOO in love with his 42%+ 3 point shooting), some cap filler, and maybe a future 2nd? Anyways, I’m definitely not that great with the trade machine, but I figured this was important to note as Knicks fans and definitely good news.

  2. Ted Nelson

    I like that line of thinking, Reebok. Getting a 2nd superstar (Bosh, Amare) now will make it much more attractive for a first superstar (LeBron, Wade) to come next offseason.

    I have a feeling that Colangelo would demand at least Lee and #8. Colangelo’s probably not dying to get rid of his best player, and there will be no shortage of other suitors with a lot to offer: Beasley, Thomas/Noah/Deng/Hinrich, etc., etc. So maybe he even asks for Lee, Nate, and #8… and do Lee and Nate want to be sign-and-traded to Toronto? I hear it’s a great city, but doesn’t seem to be much of a free agent draw.

    Amare could be another possibility. I don’t think Kerr is in a position to rebuild in Phoenix, having taken a title contender, gone for broke with the Shaq deal and axing D’Antoni, and ended up out of the playoffs. Who knows with him, though. Amare already seems to have one foot out the door there, and judging from his recent comments he’s stepping towards NYC. If the Knicks manage to trade for Bosh and can’t sign LeBron/Wade, maybe they sign Amare and try to go for a monster frontcourt of Bosh and Amare.

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    I’ve also been thinking that maybe if Curry and/or Jeffries can’t be traded for expiring deals (which maybe they can, I don’t know), the Knicks might go for better players on similar deals. For example, you only lose 2 million in cap room next summer by trading Jeffries and Wilson Chandler for Luol Deng (3 mill if you also manage to get #26 in the deal, unless you take someone and stash them in Europe or trade for a future pick).

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    Random though: If you’re Miami, do you consider trading Beasley to Memphis for Thabeet, maybe Thabeet and #27? If everything pans out Miami gets an interior defensive presence and low-volume, high efficiency scorer to pair with Wade and Memphis gets a starting PF and 3rd dynamic scorer.

  3. Owen

    The Magic have Dwight, so I am not counting them out. Found this through True Hoop, from the Daily Thunder, and I love it. I can remember saying that I thought Dwight Howard was the most physically unique athlete in the NBA and probably most pro sports leagues. And I still feel that way.

    * Reader Ransom had an outstanding observation about the combine numbers: “So while its not really Thunder related, does anyone else find it odd/funny/disturbing that Dwight Howard dunked a basketball easily on a 12-foot rim, yet no one in this years draft combine could even touch a 12 foot rim if they tried?” I never even considered that. I have an all new appreciation for Howard’s dunk now. He made it look so easy that no one was really all that impressed at the time. But if you look at Blake Griffin, a guy that is an incredible athlete, only got to 11-feet, 8.5-inches. And Howard dunked two-handed, EASILY on a 12-foot rim. Unreal. This truly blows my mind.

  4. Reebok1303

    As for the series, if Howard doesn’t get Bynam in foul trouble early, forcing the Lakers to guard him with Gasol and help and allowing their shooters to get open looks from three, I don’t see the Lakers even losing a game.

    It’s like the worst case scenario for Orlando in that LA has a big guy who can defend Howard one on one in Bynum, yet he isn’t key to them on offense and thus can be liberal in his fouling. I mean, I love me some D. Howard as much as the next guy, but he’s simply not the same player when he’s facing guys like Perkins or Bynam that he is when matched up against Big Z, Ben Wallace, and Anderson Varejao.

  5. Brian Cronin

    Heck, the year before, Howard put a sticker 12 feet 6 inches on the backboard!

    12 feet 6 inches!!!!

  6. Caleb

    LA is a bad matchup for Howard’s offense, but I don’t think that’s the main problem… the reason he’s an MVP-type guy is his defense and rebounding, and those just weren’t there. LA ran wild on the O-boards and Howard only blocked one shot, I think.

    He’s not a superstar on offense, in any situation… though sure, he needs to play a bit better.

    LA also has good matchups on Turkoglu and Howard – not many guys in the league like Odom who can guard the perimeter and not get posted up, either.

  7. BK

    Rubio coming to the US next week to meet with Oklahoma, Sacramento, Memphis, and…the Knicks (via Hoopshype). Still don’t see how we can get anywhere near him unless Stern orders a hit on a few people, but it’s interesting how Rubio’s camp is putting out very unsubtle feelers about wanting to play in NY.

  8. ess-dog

    Totally agree, Caleb. Since I hate the Lakers, I’d been considering that the Cavs would be a much harder match up for them than the Magic. 2 seven footers to smother Howard, Odom and Ariza with more length and speed to cover Turk and Lewis, and Kobe matched up against a rookie or a journeyman. I picked the Lakers in 6, but if the Lakers don’t fumble like in the last series, it could be sooner.

    As far as Bosh goes, I don’t think we should trade for him now. We really need this draft pick (if anything we should trade up) to build with and if we wait a year, we can just sign Bosh if we want to. We shouldn’t underestimate a) the desire of players to play in NY with D’Antoni (look at Stephen Curry) and b) Bosh’s desire to get a max contract and leave Toronto. He’s probably going to have a good year in his contract year and be looking for big money. And skilled 7 footers don’t grow on trees.

    If we somehow get Thabeet, then I doubt we go after Bosh. I can see why Walsh wants him. An inside presence is our biggest glaring hole, followed by shooting guard and then point.

    While the draft is point heavy, I don’t think it’s close to our biggest weakness. The first half of the year, we all loved Duhon. That said, I think Thabeet, Harden and Rubio are all worth trading up to get. It looks like the nightmare scenario of Curry moving up could happen. If we stay at 8, we could be stuck with a choice of Jennings, Holliday, Derozan, and Flynn, all very untested players, and all point guards besides Derozan. Ideally we will trade up for Rubio, Harden, Curry or Thabeet AND snag a late first and pick up Mills as another point guard. If we can’t get a point guard in the draft, I still like the idea of getting Sessions and letting Nate go. We can get points off the bench with Harrington.

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