Comments on: Four Factors and Five-Man Units

By: KnickFan

KnickFan — Wed, 25 Apr 2007 12:46:12 +0000

Dave — good point.

In case anyone does want to do this, though, they should make sure to make the dependent variable is the plus/minus number
——————–
minutes/19680

By: dave crockett

dave crockett — Tue, 24 Apr 2007 16:48:51 +0000

Oh, and thanks KB for fixing up the tables!

By: dave crockett

dave crockett — Tue, 24 Apr 2007 14:29:48 +0000

Owen and Caleb-

I’m not sure what to make of it all either. But, after thinking about this quite a bit over the past couple days I might have written this piece differently (and I may still re-do it, time permitting).

I would say that this unit level data is probably more usefully thought of as census data, where each unit is independent of the others rather than a sample of the universe of “all NY five-man units.” I say this b/c I think the more useful comparisons are ultimately between, for example, NY’s 10th-ranked unit and the 10th ranked units on other teams–precisely because they tend to play similar amounts of minutes against relatively similar kinds of players. Your small sample size issues kinda go away then because you’re at least closer to comparing apples to apples–nobody’s 10th ranked five-man unit plays a ton of minutes. I didn’t do that explicit analysis here. I may try to do more of that next.

What I think this data can give you is some insight on what things particular combinations did (or did not) do well–relative to the competition it faced. I’d be careful about comparing the units to each other directly.

KnickFan –

I’ll get our crack staff of interns right on that ;)

By: KnickFan

KnickFan — Tue, 24 Apr 2007 12:44:15 +0000

Hey David,

Can you run a regression on this data, showing each player’s contribution to the plus/minus taking the other players on the floor into account? If you want to get really fancy, you could run interaction terms between every combination of players to see if that’s significant. My guess — Lee is the only statistically significant positive, and Frye, Curry and Francis are statistically significant negatives.

By: Gerry

Gerry — Tue, 24 Apr 2007 05:21:13 +0000

Its very apparent that what the Knicks need to be a competetive and a playoff team next year is to overhaul its frontline and. After Curry, and if he has an offnight the team has no offensive threat in the paint. A season of experimentation is more than enough to conclude that the existing frontliners in Frye, Jeffries, Rose, James and Cato cannot contribute in both ends of the court. The team should get a certified power forward who has perimeter touch and a shootblocker. Lee and Balkman may not be that offensive threats, but at least both can be expected to contribute in defense. In addition, the team may let go of Robinson and Francis for Collins hasty development.

By: Caleb

Caleb — Mon, 23 Apr 2007 18:53:06 +0000

This is fun to look at but the sample sizes are so small (as you point out) that it’s hard to think they’re significant.

By: Michael Zannettis

Michael Zannettis — Mon, 23 Apr 2007 16:56:46 +0000

What I found interesting was how effective the Lee-Frye-Curry frontcourt was. Many posters had linked Frye’s struggles to Lee and Curry clouding the low-post basket area.

I wasn’t entirely convinced that was his problem, considering these were the same teammates he had in his promising rookie year. In the end, I wonder what Frye plans to work on in the off-season to resucitate his career path…

By: Owen

Owen — Mon, 23 Apr 2007 04:06:25 +0000

Quite an interesting post. Dont know quite what to make of it all, beginning with the fact that Collins featured in the top unit. His stats were pretty terrible all year. There are 20,000 minutes in a season. What do 58 and 34 minutes of unit really playing time really telling us?

I agree Robinson was better than Marbury and Crawford this year. You are exactly right about his TS%, and despite being 5’6 he managed to get an extra rebound while comitting 1.3-1.7 turnovers less per 40 than Marbury and Crawford.

Isn’t it strange that Crawford leads the team in average shot attempts but has the lowest ts% amongst the top seven scorers?

Also, what happens if you do the same trick with Curry as you do with Lee, re substituting in and out of lineups. Looking at 82games, Curry has always looked tremendously awful to me over at 82games, what does this data suggest about him?