Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, July 25, 2014

For the Bibliophobic, A Jeremy Lin Primer

As our intrepid, bookish backcourt (I’m still pining for the nickname, “The Smartest Guys in the Room,” to catch on) has taught us, reading is for…NERDS!!!!

For the rest of us, here’s a whole heap o’ fun, financial factoids about our ephebic point guard, mainly conveyed via sweet, creamery art deco-ish graphics. Enjoy!

(Big thanks to Jim Del Favero for sharing this)

94 comments on “For the Bibliophobic, A Jeremy Lin Primer

  1. d-mar

    I was joking with a friend that every time I sell my season tix above face value, I should send a commission check to Jeremy Lin. Before Linsanity, I was taking a serious financial beating.

  2. daaarn

    Anyone watching the Shooting Stars event? Houston still looks fit and he was nailing those 3s and the half-courter. Maybe we should consider re-signing him for the stretch run haha.

  3. BigBlueAL

    daaarn:
    Anyone watching the Shooting Stars event? Houston still looks fit and he was nailing those 3s and the half-courter. Maybe we should consider re-signing him for the stretch run haha.

    Mike D’Antoni wouldve loved coaching Allan Houston. Perfect SG for his system.

  4. Z-man

    Man, H20′s stroke is as pure as ever. How about the Jet nailing the halfcourt J on the first attempt?

  5. Z-man

    Never thought Kevin Love would be as good as he is. For all the high-wire act of Blake Griffin, Love is probably the best pure PF in the game (assuming that Durant is really a 3).

  6. ROUGH

    Nice stats! Nice reality shock! Basketball is a beautiful sport, but NBA is at the same time a manipulative business. Yep, loooots and lots of money flowing around our magical NBA world! Well, enjoy your new apt., Jeremy Lin! Enjoy your grown money Dolan, enjoy your milliions LeBron, et al. Btw, I read somewhere that Stoudemire pays $33.000 rent PER MONTH!

    Just don’t forget, people: http://www.coalitionforthehomeless.org/pages/basic-facts . And that’s only NYC. Imagine what’s happening around this country.

    Now, painting the outside walls of a house (as in a frequently ran NBA commercial) to show that you are “helping” your communities, oh well…

  7. Tony Pena

    ROUGH:
    Btw, I read somewhere that Stoudemire pays $33.000 rent PER MONTH!

    Crazy. Even someone as even keeled as (apparently) Stat. It’s a whole other world out there. I just hope he’s also investing some of his money too.

  8. Z-man

    ROUGH: I read somewhere that Stoudemire pays $33.000 rent PER MONTH!

    Tony Pena: Crazy. Even someone as even keeled as (apparently) Stat. It’s a whole other world out there. I just hope he’s also investing some of his money too.

    Just to put it into perspective, if he makes $18 million a year, plus endorsement money on top of that. On one year’s salary alone, he could pay that rent for about 45 years.

  9. BigBlueAL

    I know Allan Houston is not exactly one of the most popular Knicks ever. But for me he will always be my 2nd favorite Knick ever (Ewing will always be my favorite Knick) and it was cool to see him shooting great tonight wearing the Knick uniform.

  10. Tony Pena

    Z-man:
    Just to put it into perspective, if he makes $18 million a year, plus endorsement money on top of that. On one year’s salary alone, he could pay that rent for about 45 years.

    Did you calculate cost of living, inflation, property maintenance, taxes? Sheesh… Joking.

  11. Tony Pena

    It seems much less than that. Still a very interesting topic though, athletes and spending. I assume a little different than just ‘normal’ wealthy.

  12. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    My friends who won’t give up the Brooklyn dream pay about $800-900 a month in rent, which is for a shitty room share in some shitty apartment. If they make $40k a year at their jobs, they probably take home about $30k a year, maybe less. So they’d be paying about a third of their salary to living expenses.

    If Stoudemire pays $400k a year, he’s only paying about five percent of his take-home salary, which is nothing. That seems cheap, even.

    P.S. Baron Davis is awful, and he’s never going to be as good as he was in his mid-twenties. He wasn’t even that good then, no matter how much some of the people on this board will vouch for his “swagger” and his “ability” to “take over big games.”

    I hope Amar’e likes his apartment. He’s gonna be here until his contract is in its final year. Then he’ll be unceremoniously shipped out, a la Rashard Lewis.

    Worst thing is that that contract doesn’t even look that bad in comparison…

  13. Brian Cronin

    My wife was helping a co-worker look for an apartment in Astoria earlier today. I don’t know what the lady makes for sure, but I’m thinking at best $55,000 a year, and the woman was looking to spend $1700 a month on her apartment (my wife thankfully steered her toward a more reasonable place, and she ended up renting a $1350 apartment)! So yeah, people can get pretty nuts on what they spend on their apartments.

  14. jon abbey

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:

    P.S. Baron Davis is awful, and he’s never going to be as good as he was in his mid-twenties. He wasn’t even that good then, no matter how much some of the people on this board will vouch for his “swagger” and his “ability” to “take over big games.”

    as usual, you’re a “numbers nerd” who seems to never actually “watch big games”, so maybe you could hunt down some footage of his run in the 2007 playoffs, .247 WS/48 over those two series and led his team to one of the major upsets of the last 20 years, setting the tone in game 1 on the road with a 33 point, 8 assist, 14 board effort.

    someday maybe you’ll realize that in the NBA, the “regular season” is merely the “preseason” to the actual season of the playoffs, as Charles Barkley so wisely said back in the day (yes, possibly the first and last wise thing he’s said).

  15. jon abbey

    and no, I’m not saying he’ll ever get back to that level, but saying “he wasn’t even that good then” is just flat-out ignorant.

    no player in recent years has turned it on and off like Baron, Shaq did a fair amount of it in his waning years but it’s a lot easier to pull off as a center than a PG. checking his game averages doesn’t even come close to showing you his peak possibilities.

  16. 2FOR18

    I’m pretty much “all in” on advanced baseball metrics (WAR, OPS+, WS, etc.), since it’s such an individual sport, but I don’t put much stock in basketball’s advanced metrics. Bball has too many moving parts and relies too much on symbiosis to rely on individual stats. Bball is more of an eye test for this simple person. And for me, JR, Melo, Jeffries, Tyson, Shump, Lin and Novac should occupy the majority of “our” minutes.
    Amare, sad to say, is too brutal on defense to get minutes over any of the aforementioned knickerbockers in a just world (unless he starts banging 3′s like Novac – I would rather have Jorts out there than Amare).

  17. Z-man

    THCJ,
    The real point is, at the veterans minimum, Baron Davis doesn’t need to be great to justify his signing. I’ll take Raymond Felton-like play, are you arguing that he isnt capable of that (if reasonably healthy?)

  18. TelegraphedPass

    More Boom Dizzle: He’s 31st in career assists and 19th in career assists percentage. Also 38th in career steals and 17th in career steals percentage. Even when out of shape, he still performs at an average level. It’s not that Baron was ever truly bad (before this year) he was just inconsistent.

  19. daJudge

    I don’t think anyone is seriously prepared to judge BD after a couple of games. But if you didn’t care for his game before, there is really no reason to think you will all of a sudden become a fan. The whole thing really depends upon expectations. Whether you like him or not, he appears healthy and there is no legitimate reason why he can’t help the Knicks at the 1 spot. I think he will, based on the team’s needs and his past performance.

    The money issue is very interesting. I am pretty critical of the coach. But really, can you imagine trying to motivate a group of immensely skilled millionaires who occupy such a unique place in our society? Lin’s emergence, fame and incredible financial success will change him as well. The extent is hard to predict. Perhaps his spirituality will be a buffer, but I’m not so sure.

  20. art vandelay

    A bit off topic, I know: is it accurate to say we would have the approx. $2 million bi-annual exception to use on the likes of Novak or B. Diddy or someone else? I am just going into next year, at least right now, assuming the entire $5.5 Million mid-level exception will be allocated to retaining Lin (if this doesn’t happen nice upside surprise)!

  21. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Davis is making Toney Douglas look like an all-star, so far. If he ends up with a WS48 over 0 I’ll be surprised.

  22. Z-man

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Davis is making Toney Douglas look like an all-star, so far. If he ends up with a WS48 over 0 I’ll be surprised.

    Spoken like a true student of the game. Let’s make a judgement based on 37 minutes of play (half of which came against the best team in the league in the second game of a back-to-back) after a 10 month layoff and no practice time. Credible stuff.

  23. Z-man

    daJudge: The money issue is very interesting. I am pretty critical of the coach. But really, can you imagine trying to motivate a group of immensely skilled millionaires who occupy such a unique place in our society? Lin’s emergence, fame and incredible financial success will change him as well. The extent is hard to predict. Perhaps his spirituality will be a buffer, but I’m not so sure.
    daJudge(Quote)

    Honestly, I think that for the vast majority of NBA players, including the multi-millionaires, the impact of money issues ends with the opening tap.

  24. Count de Pennies

    Yesterday on ESPN radio, one of their generic NBA analysts advanced the claim that Jeremy Lin is now the “most popular basketball player in the world.”

    He did not say what metric(s) he used to reach that conclusion (recent jersey sales? # of google searches?) Notwithstanding the media frenzy that has surrounded the kid over the past few weeks, it’s a rather startling claim. Especially when you consider that superstar players like LeBron and Dwight Howard have spent the past several years assiduously cultivating their image and global marketability. That Lin has (allegedly) surpassed them in a mere matter of weeks is either a testament to the awesome reach of the media, the power of the Asian consumer market, or some combination of those and other factors.

    Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how Lin’s status as “the world’s most popular basketball player” might be impacted if his play comes reverts to the mean and he turns out to be little more than a rich man’s JJ Barea.

  25. max fisher-cohen

    art vandelay:
    A bit off topic, I know: is it accurate to say we would have the approx. $2 million bi-annual exception to use on the likes of Novak or B. Diddy or someone else? I am just going into next year, at least right now, assuming the entire $5.5 Million mid-level exception will be allocated to retaining Lin (if this doesn’t happen nice upside surprise)!

    Bi-annual exception went to JR Smith. We won’t have it again until after next season.

  26. Brian Cronin

    A bit off topic, I know: is it accurate to say we would have the approx. $2 million bi-annual exception to use on the likes of Novak or B. Diddy or someone else? I am just going into next year, at least right now, assuming the entire $5.5 Million mid-level exception will be allocated to retaining Lin (if this doesn’t happen nice upside surprise)!

    Yes, the Knicks will have the Bi-Annual Exception, which is available every other year (hence the name) to teams that are over the cap but under the luxury tax line, which the Knicks will be this year (and likely only this year, as they seem primed to go over the luxury tax line this offseason). The Bi-Annual Exception is something like $2.17 million or something like that. The Mid-Level is $5 million.

    By the way, one interesting thing that I have not seen actually specifically stated in the new CBA (as I have yet to see an actual copy of the new CBA, just memos from the various parties about the changes – with the presumption being that the rest of the CBA has remained the same. Such a presumption seems to be accurate, especially in the case of Lin, where his status was defined using the terms of the old CBA which apparently are also the terms in the new CBA, as confirmed by high-up league sources to Howard Beck) is how the “Gilbert Arenas Exception” works now. You see, in the old days, teams were limited in how much they could offer free agents like Lin by the average salary, which was most recently $5.7 million. The Mid-Level Exception, too, was defined as “the average salary,” so it also was $5.7 million. Therefore, other teams could only offer up to the MLE, which the player’s current team could always match.

    Well, here’s the interesting thing. The new CBA changes the definition for the Mid-Level for teams over the cap but under the luxury tax line (like the Knicks). The Mid-Level for these teams is now limited to $5 million, not the average salary. However, I cannot say definitively that the “Gilbert Arenas Provision” limit from outside teams was changed from “average salary” to “mid-level.” In other words, there is a slight chance that another team would be allowed to offer $5.7 million while the Knicks would only be allowed to give Lin $5 million. I say “slight” because that just seems to contradict the entire spirit of the rule, ya know? So I imagine that the “Gilbert Arenas Provision” was, indeed, altered to say “mid-level” as the limit other teams can offer Lin. I just can’t say for sure, seeing as how I have yet to see the actual new CBA. I guess I should ask Coon.

  27. Brian Cronin

    Bi-annual exception went to JR Smith. We won’t have it again until after next season.

    No, that was not the Bi-Annual Exception. The Knicks did not have it this year, since they were under the cap. What they had was a brand-new exception (if this was not invented this season, then the Knicks would not have been able to sign Smith at all) called the “Room Exception.” The Room Exception is for teams that are under the cap. It used to be that if you were under the cap, you were not given any exceptions (with the idea being that you did not need “exceptions” because you were under the cap), but that put teams like the Knicks into a weird position where they were under the cap, but by so little that they could not sign anyone. So now teams under the cap are given a $2.5 exception to spend. That is what the Knicks used to sign Smith. They will still have the Bi-Annual Exception this offseason.

  28. jon abbey

    Count de Pennies:
    Yesterday on ESPN radio, one of their generic NBA analysts advanced the claim that Jeremy Lin is now the “most popular basketball player in the world.”

    He did not say what metric(s) he used to reach that conclusion (recent jersey sales? # of google searches?) Notwithstanding the media frenzy that has surrounded the kid over the past few weeks, it’s a rather startling claim. Especially when you consider that superstar players like LeBron and Dwight Howard have spent the past several years assiduously cultivating their image and global marketability. That Lin has (allegedly) surpassed them in a mere matter of weeks is either a testament to the awesome reach of the media, the power of the Asian consumer market, or some combination of those and other factors.

    Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how Lin’s status as “the world’s most popular basketball player” might be impacted if his play comes reverts to the mean and he turns out to be little more than a rich man’s JJ Barea.

    he has the #1 selling jersey in the NBA already, Sports Illustrated claimed this week that his brand was worth more than Tiger Woods (!).

  29. Brian Cronin

    While he’s clearly extremely popular, the jersey thing is a bit overblown, since of course he would have the #1 selling jersey right now. Everyone else’s jerseys have already been bought!

  30. bobneptune

    Z-man:
    THCJ,
    The real point is, at the veterans minimum, Baron Davis doesn’t need to be great to justify his signing. I’ll take Raymond Felton-like play, are you arguing that he isnt capable of that (if reasonably healthy?)

    a couple of things:

    his signing is easy to justify since it only cost the vet minimum which is lunch money to msg. whether there is a real chance of getting anything significant out of him is another issue which hinges mostly on his health.

    one can argue over his career as his ws/48 have him as an average nba player. i don’t think anyone will argue he is a chronic underachiever.

    however, he has played 46 playoff games (a statistically significant number) and his performance has jumped markedly under the bright lights to an outstanding ws/48 of .189 and a per of 22.2

    the only problem with this analysis is the last sample of theses sorts of plus performances was 5 years ago and once removed from a back injury which wasn’t surgically stabilized and which wasn’t capable of performing after 8 months of rest.

    this notion that a 33 year old with a serious enough back issue to need 10 months off to be able to play a few minutes and who is a notorious underachiever is going to get the discipline to maintain a seriously bad back is hard to believe. plus, the 3 plane flexion that the spine must withstand under normal circumstances playing in the nba along with the constant compression of jumping and landing doesn’t bode well for his health.

    bottom line is, the signing of davis was an effort to get hit by lightning. the probability of davis playing as an average nba player for the rest of the season is minimal, but certainly worth the less than minimal risk.

  31. art vandelay

    He was literally the only player who had his own personal press conference at all star weekend on friday and he won’t even play in the ASG!

  32. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I’m all for the low-risk, high-reward signings. The problem is that NBA coaches and FO personnel are too dumb to give up on an underachiever if he has a “track record.” That’s why you see people like Juwan Howard and Jerry Stackhouse still floating around the league.

    If David doesn’t turn around his play, he’s not even worth playing in garbage minutes. They’d be better off playing Toney Douglas in the hope that he slowly regresses to his old form so that at least one team (T’wolves, of course) would take him in a trade (straight up for Rubio, of course).

    If the Knicks were really into high-reward, low-risk moves, they’d play Jerome Jordan at the center. So far, he’s been excellent, statistically, and there’s no sense in throwing Jeffries against players like Bynum and Howard when he’s the ideal player to guard athletic swingmen and bulldozing power forwards.

  33. bobneptune

    Count de Pennies:

    Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how Lin’s status as “the world’s most popular basketball player” might be impacted if his play comes reverts to the mean and he turns out to be little more than a rich man’s JJ Barea.

    first, did you have enough data prior to lin’s recent starting pg games to have any idea what his “mean” actually was to revert to?

    and secondly (and not assuming barea is his floor or ceiling) barea was a pretty important cog in a championship team…. ask the great miami defense how much luck they had keeping him from penetrating diagonally through their superior defense in games 5 and 6.

    as knick fans, we shouldn’t be concerned about his overall popularity, merely how can he impact the franchise winning moving forward. i don’t expect the guy to be the league mvp or even an all star. should he turn out to be a 4 inch taller and 30 pound heavier jj barera, i’d be fine with that as long as he contributes to team success.

  34. JoMo

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    Davis is making Toney Douglas look like an all-star, so far. If he ends up with a WS48 over 0 I’ll be surprised.

    Laughed when I read this. Was on the fence, but this one convinced me that THCJ is just trolling everyone on this board to light some fires.

  35. bobneptune

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:

    If the Knicks were really into high-reward, low-risk moves, they’d play Jerome Jordan at the center. So far, he’s been excellent, statistically, and there’s no sense in throwing Jeffries against players like Bynum and Howard when he’s the ideal player to guard athletic swingmen and bulldozing power forwards.

    i actually agree that i’d like to see jordan get some back up center minutes over jefferies, but the chances of d’antoni putting a rookie that can’t shoot the 3 ball in over a veteran with his job on the line is about zero.

    just out of curiosity, is there a place where they keep advanced stats for jordan in the adriatic league last year before he ruptured his appendix? he was shooting close to 70% from the floor for the season.

  36. Z-man

    bobneptune: bottom line is, the signing of davis was an effort to get hit by lightning. the probability of davis playing as an average nba player for the rest of the season is minimal, but certainly worth the less than minimal risk.

    bob,
    That’s one way of looking at it. Of course, you can say that about any player that a team signs for minimal salary (Steve Novak and Jeremy Lin). Difference here is that Baron Davis has a long history of being an above-average NBA PG (and in the playoffs, far above average) while Lin and Novak did not. Baron has played for some very bad teams, which accounts for some of the motivational issues (not that it is a good thing that a guy reports out of shape and mails it in when he is on a crappy team.) He is 33 years old, a full five years younger than Nash, Kidd and Chauncey. Will his back hold up? At 40mpg, probably not, but with Lin now in the fold, he doesn’t need to play as much, or be the fix-all for the team’s PG woes. He also doesn’t need to do nearly as much as he had to in GS or Charlotte. So in your opinion, the probability that he will be an average NBA PG is minimal; in my opinion, given Lin’s emergence, it is very realistic.

  37. hoolahoop

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: My friends who won’t give up the Brooklyn dream pay about $800-900 a month in rent, which is for a shitty room share in some shitty apartment. If they make $40k a year at their jobs, they probably take home about $30k a year, maybe less. So they’d be paying about a third of their salary to living expenses.

    If Stoudemire pays $400k a year, he’s only paying about five percent of his take-home salary, which is nothing. That seems cheap, even.

    Rule of thumb in NYC is your annual salary needs to be 40x the monthly rent to qualify for an apartment. (i.e. For a $1000/mo apartment you need to make $40k/year)
    If Amare is making $16Mil/year he could be renting an apartment for $400,000/month!!!!!
    Crazier still, he can actually pay much more.

    . . . and guess who’s paying him.

  38. bobneptune

    Brian Cronin:
    While he’s clearly extremely popular, the jersey thing is a bit overblown, since of course he would have the #1 selling jersey right now. Everyone else’s jerseys have already been bought!

    of course, there is another explanation: if you were the parent of a 10 year old just starting to get into basketball…. who would you prefer he emulate, the son of immigrants who came to this country to better themselves and have a son who got himself into harvard on merit, not legacy or athletic talent and then persevered through multiple failures to establish himself on the world’s highest level…. or some one like chris “birdman” anderson?

  39. hoolahoop

    Brian Cronin:
    While he’s clearly extremely popular, the jersey thing is a bit overblown, since of course he would have the #1 selling jersey right now. Everyone else’s jerseys have already been bought!

    I thought it was because he was the best basketball player, ever.

  40. jon abbey

    bobneptune: a son who got himself into harvard on merit, not legacy or athletic talent

    pretty sure it was primarily athletic talent, his SATs weren’t anything special and it’s close to impossible to get into the top schools these days without a flawless academic record unless you have something else big going for you (like being able to help the hoops team).

  41. bobneptune

    Z-man

    ….So in your opinion, the probability that he will be an average NBA PG is minimal; in my opinion, given Lin’s emergence, it is very realistic.

    fair enough…. we agree to disagree.

    he really only needs to be able to play 12 minutes a night to be a help. the notion that after 8 months from his injury he wasn’t able to suit up for an additional 8 weeks makes me doubt he will be able to play 12 minutes at anything near his normal levels.

    quite frankly, i’d have preferred he tore an ACL or something similar where when they do return, they generally return at near normal levels like caron butler or david west.

    had he had surgery to stabilize the region a la gallo, i’d be much more confident (and it helps to be 19, too), but when you have a back issue at 32 that necessitates a 10 month layoff to get you to play 3 games, i think more along the lines of larry bird and don mattingly whose careers deteriorated way before their time.

  42. jon abbey

    actually I withdraw the comment about Lin’s SAT scores, I think that was based on bad reporting elsewhere and I can’t find anything to confirm what they actually were.

  43. Count de Pennies

    bobneptune: first, did you have enough data prior to lin’s recent starting pg games to have any idea what his “mean” actually was to revert to?

    I should have been more specific. I wasn’t talking about Lin’s “mean” (which obviously has yet to be established) but the “mean” of NBA PG play as a whole (whatever that is).

    Whatever it happens to be, Lin’s level of play so far has clearly been well above it. I am curious to see whether Lin’s popularity would persist were he to start playing more like an average NBA PG. Right now the adulation he’s gotten has heretofore been the exclusive province of the league’s superstars. Would that adulation continue if Lin stopped playing less like a superstar and more like the somewhat pedestrian (albeit still useful) JJ Barea?

  44. Ben R

    I don’t know how good Lin can be but why does everyone assume that he will get worse and be merely average. No one is saying that about Rubio or Irving. Lin is, for all intents and purposes, a rookie so while there will be rough stretches and growing pains but why does everyone want to keep lowering his ceiling. I don’t know how good he will end up but based on what we’ve seen and his work effort the sky seems to be the limit.

    I know we’re Knick fans waiting for the other shoe to drop but Lin is a second year player, odds are he gets better, not falls apart and ends up average.

  45. Count de Pennies

    @52

    I don’t know how good he can be, either. And I’m hardly assuming that he will turn out to be only average.

    However, I do think it highly doubtful that he sustains his level of play. By most statistical metrics, he’s played like a Top-3 PG during his first two weeks as a starter. Sorry, but I just don’t think we’ve found the next CP3, Deron, or Nash in his prime. Which means I think he WILL get worse. How much worse is the $64 million question.

  46. Doug

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    Davis is making Toney Douglas look like an all-star, so far. If he ends up with a WS48 over 0 I’ll be surprised.

    Our august statistics disciple, blatantly ignoring sample size??

    Butler! Fetch me my pearls, so that I may clutch them!

  47. Ben R

    @53 Of course he will struggle as teams adjust but I do not think that in his prime he couldn’t put up similar number to what he has over the last 2 weeks, with less turnovers of course. He will go through lots of ups and downs but all the evidence so far points to the fact that he is probably one of the top 5 players from his draft class and has all-star potential.

    We don’t know good he will be but his ceiling is all-star PG, his floor is solid starter. I just don’t know why a stretch by a lottery pick, like Blake last year or Irving this year is seen as the blossoming of a star and a stretch by Lin is viewed as unsustainable and a flash in the pan.

  48. jon abbey

    Ben R:

    We don’t know good he will be but his ceiling is all-star PG, his floor is solid starter. I just don’t know why a stretch by a lottery pick, like Blake last year or Irving this year is seen as the blossoming of a star and a stretch by Lin is viewed as unsustainable and a flash in the pan.

    track record, pedigree, those things matter as people tend to revert to their talent levels. if he’d played at this level for 40 games, I’d be more likely to see your point, but right now the sample size is still too small.

  49. Robert Silverman Post author

    jon abbey: track record, pedigree, those things matter as people tend to revert to their talent levels. if he’d played at this level for 40 games, I’d be more likely to see your point, but right now the sample size is still too small.

    you mean the way many on this forum wanted to tar and feather Landry Fields after his awful start this year/crash at the end of last season. He had a 50-game sample size, too.

  50. jon abbey

    Robert Silverman: you mean the way many on this forum wanted to tar and feather Landry Fields after his awful start this year/crash at the end of last season. He had a 50-game sample size, too.

    yeah, and then 40-50 games of sucking including the worst performance I’ve ever seen in a postseason series. and he’s actually a terrible example since he has no real pedigree as a mid-second round draft pick who was nothing special in college.

    my opinion on him still hasn’t changed much: he’s an 8th or a 9th player at best on a good team and there’s no way in hell he should be starting once Smith and Shumpert are both healthy. I’m glad to see he’s picked up his game in recent weeks, because he would have been out of the league pretty quickly if he hadn’t.

  51. jon abbey

    but yeah, that’s an example of why even 40-50 games might not be enough to judge what Lin really will be long-term. I think he’s more legit than Fields though, at least.

  52. Robert Silverman Post author

    I know you don’t dig Landry, but you have to be impressed w/the way he’s added to his game this year. Last year (when he was good), he scored pretty much entirely on put-backs and spot up threes. This year, he’s been slashing to the basket a lot more, scoring on ISO’s and has really picked up his defense.

    I’m of the opinion that his jumper will return, but then again, I’m solidly pro-Landry. Either way, it shows a player who will work on/improve/add to his skill-set. That’s a valuable commodity to have, especially at around 5 million/year (starting next season).

  53. 2FOR18

    I think Landry’s poor shooting, and lack of being a legit threat from 3, more than offsets the couple of nice drives he makes a game. A net negative, overall. They need JR’s playmaking and shooting out there to make teams pay for hounding Lin.

  54. hoolahoop

    Landry’s game has developed considerably. He’s plays with a lot of energy and makes things happen. He goes to the hoop, passes well, and generally plays a sound, high IQ basketball. I can see him at a starter on an elite team, the guy who helps keep it glued together.

  55. ess-dog

    Yeah, I think Landry has really brought it on the defensive end lately. I like JR as a sixth man, but without Danilo and Chauncey, we don’t really have any quality starters that can hit the three consistently.
    It might make more sense to start JR. It’s more about creating the proper rotations than anything – that will be D’Antoni’s challenge this year.
    I would love to see more of a “speed” team out there with Melo at the 4 and Stat at the 5, especially against athletic teams like the Heat and Thunder. Maybe with Shump at the 3. We’re suddenly pretty deep with Davis, Shump and JR, not to mention Jeffries and Novak playing so well.

  56. hoolahoop

    Ben R:
    @53 Of course he will struggle as teams adjust but I do not think that in his prime he couldn’t put up similar number to what he has over the last 2 weeks, with less turnovers of course. He will go through lots of ups and downs but all the evidence so far points to the fact that he is probably one of the top 5 players from his draft class and has all-star potential.

    We don’t know good he will be but his ceiling is all-star PG, his floor is solid starter. I just don’t know why a stretch by a lottery pick, like Blake last year or Irving this year is seen as the blossoming of a star and a stretch by Lin is viewed as unsustainable and a flash in the pan.

    Lin’s a good kid and I want to see him do well so I hope you’re right. No doubt, he’s just what the knicks need, but I’m not convinced he can sustain the brilliance he demonstrated in his breakout.
    Part of it is just my gut feel watching him. But, also it’s his energy level. In the first few games he exploded on the court with a pent up energy; attacking, distributing, running in and out keeping his dribble – all the time.

    Now, it seems he does that in small spurts. He’s slower up the court, picks up his dribble too soon, doesn’t see wide open bigs underneath.

    He’s smart and seems to recognize his problems (more than fans) so maybe he’ll develop into a solid, reliable PG. I hope so.

  57. hoolahoop

    . . . Lin also seems to lose confidence quickly during games, but plays through it and gets it back.
    He’s so raw it’s impossible, and unfair, to judge where his ceiling is.

    In comparison, Baron Davis, rusty I know, made some dopey decisions in the Miami game, but you can see something special in his game. Very gifted. Great potential . . . if he stays healthy and makes fundamentally sound decisions.

  58. hoolahoop

    ess-dog:
    Yeah, I think Landry has really brought it on the defensive end lately.I like JR as a sixth man, but without Danilo and Chauncey, we don’t really have any quality starters that can hit the three consistently.
    It might make more sense to start JR.It’s more about creating the proper rotations than anything – that will be D’Antoni’s challenge this year.
    I would love to see more of a “speed” team out there with Melo at the 4 and Stat at the 5, especially against athletic teams like the Heat and Thunder.Maybe with Shump at the 3.We’re suddenly pretty deep with Davis, Shump and JR, not to mention Jeffries and Novak playing so well.

    If Amare could run the floor like he used to that would be an athletic squad, cause some real headaches for opposing teams. Then come in with fresh bench players. That would be a handful.

  59. jon abbey

    Robert Silverman:
    I know you don’t dig Landry, but you have to be impressed w/the way he’s added to his game this year. Last year (when he was good), he scored pretty much entirely on put-backs and spot up threes. This year, he’s been slashing to the basket a lot more, scoring on ISO’s and has really picked up his defense.

    I’m of the opinion that his jumper will return, but then again, I’m solidly pro-Landry. Either way, it shows a player who will work on/improve/add to his skill-set. That’s a valuable commodity to have, especially at around 5 million/year (starting next season).

    yeah, the commodity part to me is irrelevant right now, this is not a team built to win two years from now, despite how little time they’ve had together. once Shumpert and Harrellson show they’re healthy (hopefully 2-3 games), if Landry hasn’t started hitting at least a three or two per game, he doesn’t deserve minutes on this team, although I’m sure he’ll be one of the top 11th guys in the league. as my esteemed colleague ruruland keeps telling us, we are about to be exceedingly deep (our 13th guy led the league in 3s after the break last year).

    so assuming all 11 guys are healthy, where do people want Fields’ minutes to come at, SG or SF?

    PG: Lin (28), Baron (17), Smith (3)
    SG: Shumpert (23), Smith (25)
    SF: Melo (34), Jeffries (8), Novak (6)
    PF: Amare (28), Jeffries (10), Novak (10)
    C: Chandler (32), Harrellson (16)

    that is 10 guys getting between 34 and 16 minutes, that should keep people about as fresh as they can be in this crazy season. I get that everyone wants Landry to date their sister, but to me it’s pretty clear he’s the odd man out on this suddenly very deep team if everyone is healthy.

    also D’Antoni could give guys full rest games off, and p but that would stall the gelling process even more, an interesting tradeoff but maybe not…

  60. jon abbey

    nice, I hit the Ted Nelson word limit, that doesn’t happen much. Wednesday cannot get here soon enough…

  61. daJudge

    Please take me away from the music featured tonight. Wow. Am I just an old fart or did it really suck? Even if I am, god that was brutal. Don’t take this as an insult, but I would rather listen to THCJ lecture on any random topic for 50 minutes, including statistics, than have to watch that again. Jon Abbey, don’t you think Fields has been doing some nice stuff lately and perhaps is helping Lin a bit in subtle ways. I don’t think Landry is the odd man out, but I have concerns about Stat.

  62. art vandelay

    I really think people are overestimating Jorts’ minutes now that we are at full strength….I see him maybe getting 5-7 minutes of spot duty max….can’t see him playing the 18.5 mpg he was averaging prior to injury when we were scarily bone-thin off the bench. He may even see some DNP-coach’s decisions along with Bill the Thrill Walker. Dantoni will find minutes for Fields (perhaps at the 3 with shumpert of JR playing the 2) before he gives Jorts 16 mpg upon his return for injury…just can’t see him playing that many minutes on average. More likely to see Amare play as center than for Jorts to back up Chandler 16 mpg at that position.

  63. Z-man

    I’ve been down on Landry, but ultimately am rooting for him. He has improved as of late, but I still cringe every time he takes a 3-pointer or FT. His defense has definitely improved and he is going to the basket with more authority. Still, I think he has a ways to go before I feel that he is a starting caliber SG or SF on a team like ours. He has been a beneficiary of Linsanity as much as anyone, so if the league catches up with Lin and the other offensive-minded players (Amare, Melo and JR) don’t pick up the slack, That puts more pressure on him to score. Considering his 3pt% and FT%, and his low-traj release point, he is just too easy to defend. Guys can lay off of him (and help on others) or overplay him to his right, and if he gets a half step, foul him and put him on the line.

    To be fair, Shump is a better defender, but Landry is ahead of him offensively right now.

  64. daJudge

    Z-man, your analysis seems fair and I haven’t read the whole thread, so who would you start over Landry? JR or Shump? Maybe it’s good that Landry isn’t launching the 3′s. Think about this though…Landry played really, really well for the first half of last year. His play was intelligent and inspiring. That was a lot of games to perform at a high level. I’m willing to state that Lin is at least a legit 1 after 10-11 games. Why doesn’t Landry get the same treatment? In other words, maybe Landry is legit, but needs to make some adjustments, which I think he is doing. No? One last question, who would make his teammates better?

  65. jon abbey

    daJudge:
    Jon Abbey, don’t you think Fields has been doing some nice stuff lately and perhaps is helping Lin a bit in subtle ways.

    yes but not nearly enough in both cases. he has been getting to the basket, but still can’t buy a three and it seems like the majority of his production comes early in games. I’m sure Lin is happy to have a buddy out there, but I’m sure he’d be even happier to have someone who can bust threes alongside him when the D is swarming him full-court.

    as for Jorts, D’Antoni has already said he’ll be right back in the rotation. he’s maybe the best post defender on the team after Chandler, and looked like he could shoot threes before getting hurt. if he is at C and goes to the perimeter on offense, that should really open up the middle for everyone else to get to the basket.

  66. daJudge

    Good points Jon. I’m a big Jort’s fan and I think his presence will raise really significant issues. Maybe he’s a decent legit 4. I agree that Fields short arms his set three and it has been pretty weak. He’s surely not stretching the offense, which is critical. I also agree that his camaraderie does not justify starting. That would be silly. On the other hand, maybe his camaraderie with Lin is more than friendship and fosters chemistry. I recognize that this is hard to define, ephemeral, but I believe it is a factor in general and maybe for Lin. I’d like to see him start a bit longer at the 2. Anyway, it’s nice to have options, right.

  67. MKinLA

    In fact, if you want Landry to get burn, you want Jorts to get burn, too. Because there’s no way the offense runs well without at least one 3 pt shooter on the floor in addition to Lin and Melo. Ideally, we’d have two other shooters at all times.

  68. Z-man

    I don’t have a problem with Landry starting, as I agree with jon that he does seem to play well in the first quarter (Brian C, are per quarter stats available on Synergy?) However, his 3-pt and FT shooting percentages were worse in Feb than in Jan, and have been dreadful all year. We are now more than half way into the season.

    On top of that, the Knicks have been basically a .500 team since he arrived. From this point forward, the expectations are higher and the best players need to play the most minutes. If Fields plays better than the other guys at his position, he should play more than them. If JR or Shump or Novak are playing better, then they should play more. I truly hope that Landry steps it up, but his shot from outside 15 ft (excepting an occasional in-rhythm pull-up J) looks worse than Jeffries right now.

  69. massive

    I think the reason for Landry’s woeful play before Lin was due to not playing with a ball-dominant PG. He seems to thrive playing off of the ball a lot more than having ball-handling responsibilities. Everybody had to chip in with that due to the lack of any consistent point guard play, so Landry struggled. Lin came in and made Fields, Jeffries, and Novak better offensive players (and they also played better defense with Lin). He was supposed to resurrect Amar’e from the dead, but it’s clearly going to take time for them to develop some chemistry (as it did with Felton last season). As long as Lin can keep up the stellar play, Fields should too.

    I do agree that we could use a better shooter at the 2, but Shumpert’s play hasn’t been deserving of supplanting Landry, and JR Smith is the ideal 6th man. Players like Nick Young or Jason Richardson would be ideal starters at the two in D’Antoni’s system. However, I’m very pro-Landry and I think he can improve, becoming something of a consistent 3-point shooter and consistent perimeter defender.

  70. Z-man

    A ball-dominant distributing PG is like a rising tide that lifts all boats. Of course Landry will play better with Lin and/or Baron, but so will Shump, Novak, JR, even maybe TD.

  71. Brian Cronin

    Debating the Fields thing is a bit of an academic point, as we know that once you’ve entered the DCOT (D’Antoni Circle of Trust) the only thing that will unseat you is outright horrible play over an extended period of time (see Chris Duhon, Larry Hughes and _______). So as long as Fileds plays as he has recently, he’ll remain in the rotation and likely in the starting lineup. However, D’Antoni will finish the game with whoever he thinks is the best player at that point in time, and that likely means a whole lot of Smith at the end of games (and if Smith plays really well, I would not be surprised if Smith does, indeed, supplant Fields in the starting lineup – D’Antoni just won’t remove Fields from the rotation – he will cut his minutes if someone plays better than him, but he won’t remove him from the rotation – note that Fields started every playoff game last year despite having a terrible playoffs – he just got his minutes cut).

  72. jon abbey

    we’ll see, D’Antoni has never had a team that goes 11 deep like this, I’m pretty sure. Fields started every playoff game because there were no real alternatives, now there are plenty.

  73. Brian Cronin

    we’ll see, D’Antoni has never had a team that goes 11 deep like this, I’m pretty sure. Fields started every playoff game because there were no real alternatives, now there are plenty.

    And the depth will likely see his minutes reduced, but again, once you’re in the DCOT, you’re in there good.

  74. jon abbey

    well, it would be equally out of character for him to play 11 guys every game, so something has to give.

  75. Brian Cronin

    Disagree. It would be a lot more in character for him to play 11 guys than it would be for him to bench a player he’s started in 119 out of a possible 121 games while said player is playing well. In fact, I think his weird brand of loyalty goes towards explaining his rotations – he doesn’t trust easily and has never had a team where he’s had 11 guys he trusted. If he does have that now, he’ll play them (reduced minutes, of course). There’s just no way he benches Fields after starting him practically every game for a season and a half, through thick and thin. I’d bet an ungodly amount of money on the certainty of it. Now if Fields starts sucking, then sure, that’s another story. In general, though, arguing against him playing Fields is like arguing for him playing Balkman – no matter how logical your position might be for it happening, it doesn’t matter when it comes to D’Antoni. He sticks with who he wants to play, logic or no logic.

  76. Robert Silverman Post author

    I’m kind of flabbergasted at the calls for Fields to be benched, let alone removed from the rotation. He’s good. He’s a solid starter. And he’s going to improve. Smith will finish some games like he did v. Miami and Dallas, but I’ll wager that Fields’ jumpshot and FT shooting improve as the year goes on.

  77. Brian Cronin

    I understand the logic of it. It is less of a shot at Fields (although, okay, obviously anti-Fields bias plays some part in it – I don’t think Jon would even dispute that part of his thoughts on the subject are colored by his general belief that Fields is not good) and more a matter of what players “need” to play. Obviously Lin, Melo, STAT, Chandler and Smith “need” to play. Then you add in Jeffries and Harrelson, who are your back-up bigs. Then you add in Davis just because someone needs to be the back-up point guard. Then you add Shump because he has to get some playing time simply because he has an elite skill that comes in handy for certain parts of the game (like if Deron Williams is lighting up the team). Then you add Novak because he’s shooting an amazing percentage from three.

    Well, that’s ten people right there who fit definitive “needs” for the Knicks. Fields is not as good of a defender as Shump and he is not as good of an offensive player as Smith. He doesn’t have the outside touch that Novak or Harrelson has. He can’t play the point. He can’t pass as a 4. So if you are working under the position that D’Antoni will not play 11 guys, then Fields seems to be the odd man out.

    I don’t believe D’Antoni will do that and I would sooner believe he would find minutes for 11 guys than I would believe he would bench Fields, but I understand the logic behind the argument.

  78. Robert Silverman Post author

    Fair enough. Even though Shump can be a lock-down defender, I still wouldn’t play him extensively over Fields. I dig Shump, but he’s terrible offensively right now, for all his athletic gifts.

  79. Brian Cronin

    As others have mentioned, a Fields/Shump rotation at back-up SG based on what the game calls for is almost certainly what D’Antoni will do (back-up in total minutes, as Fields will likely continue to start, with Smith just getting the most minutes at the 2). As Jon notes, there’s likely at least 23 minutes available at the SG position (plus minutes at the 3, as no way Jeffries plays 8 minutes a game at the 3 – I don’t think D’Antoni has played Jeffries a minute at the 3 this year, let alone 8 minutes a game), and since the last time Shump and Fields both played (in a big game to boot), Shump got less than 20 while Fields got 26 (with no Melo playing), that gives you a strong indication of how D’Antoni sees the depth chart. In other words, Shump will be used like Tony Allen was on the 2008 Celtics – D’Antoni’ll play him when he feels it necessary, but he’s not going to be the primary guy at the position.

    Speaking of the 2008 Celtics, Doc Rivers found room to play 11 guys in a close game in the NBA Finals! A game where Pierce played 42 minutes and Ray Allen played the entire game.

  80. Brian Cronin

    In fact, since Lin became a starter (and thus, Shump’s PG minutes were reduced), there hasn’t been a single game where Shump has played more minutes than Fields, and typically the disparity between the two has been significant.

    So, rightly or wrongly, it sure seems like Fields > Shump in D’Antoni’s book.

  81. jon abbey

    Brian Cronin:

    So, rightly or wrongly, it sure seems like Fields > Shump in D’Antoni’s book.

    the context is what matters, we’ll see what happens if all 11 guys can stay healthy for a while.

    you may be right, D’Antoni hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory with his use of personnel thus far, but if all 11 stay healthy, I just don’t see how Fields doesn’t eventually become the odd man out (if he doesn’t start hitting 3s). Shumpert’s perimeter D is a huge asset in almost every game, and for those who talk about a “commodity”, Shump is a genuine commodity, one with way more upside than Fields.

  82. BigBlueAL

    This is amazing, have already read 2 articles about LeBron passing up the final shot at the ASG. This apparently is kinda a big story. Unbelievable.

    I will add though that when you see the replay of the turnover Kobe was clearly pissed off that LeBron threw that pass (Adrian Wojnarowski mentioned that in his article Kobe was mad at LBJ after that pass and I thought he was talking crap but after seeing the replay he clearly was). He also mentioned Melo being mad but I noticed when it happened live how Melo was frantically calling for the ball since he was wide open (his hustle is what allowed the East to get the ball back after DWill’s miss) but Melo didnt look mad since he was smiling about it with LBJ after while Kobe really did look pissed. I honestly dunno if LBJ is truly scared of taking and missing shots late in games but one thing is for sure we dont ever have to worry about Melo feeling that way lol

  83. iserp

    I’d say that Landry will play more into the 3 with JR Smith, but i don’t see him out of the rotation at all. Shump will get some minutes at the PG, and i think D’Antoni will split time between Lin and Davis (if Davis looks like last year in the Cavs and Lin is still playing like a good PG). Jeffries won’t play too much time next to chandler except against dominant frontcourts (lakers…). I don’t expect too many minutes for Jorts or Jerome Jordan. Actually, i think D’Antoni will play with smaller lineups now that we have actual PGs.

    This is a 10-man rotation i would be happy with:

    J-Lin 25 / Davis 18 / Shump 5
    Fields 10 / JR Smith 25 / Shump 13
    Melo 26 / Fields 12 / Novak 10
    STAT 32 / Melo 6 / Jeffries 4 / Novak 6
    Chandler 32 / Jeffries 16

  84. Z-man

    Robert Silverman: I’m kind of flabbergasted at the calls for Fields to be benched, let alone removed from the rotation. He’s good. He’s a solid starter. And he’s going to improve. Smith will finish some games like he did v. Miami and Dallas, but I’ll wager that Fields’ jumpshot and FT shooting improve as the year goes on.

    If you made that bet in January, you would have lost.

  85. ruruland

    iserp:
    I’d say that Landry will play more into the 3 with JR Smith, but i don’t see him out of the rotation at all. Shump will get some minutes at the PG, and i think D’Antoni will split time between Lin and Davis (if Davis looks like last year in the Cavs and Lin is still playing like a good PG). Jeffries won’t play too much time next to chandler except against dominant frontcourts (lakers…). I don’t expect too many minutes for Jorts or Jerome Jordan. Actually, i think D’Antoni will play with smaller lineups now that we have actual PGs.

    This is a 10-man rotation i would be happy with:

    J-Lin 25 / Davis 18 / Shump 5
    Fields 10 / JR Smith 25 / Shump 13
    Melo 26 /Fields 12 / Novak 10
    STAT 32 / Melo 6 / Jeffries 4 / Novak 6
    Chandler 32 / Jeffries 16

    no way Lin gets less than 30 mpg. Shump will be a platoon situational player.

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