Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

ESPN 5-on-5: Knicks-Heat Game 5

Tom Haberstroh, Mike Wallace, Brian Windhorst, Jared Zwerling and I wax balletical about tonight’s #MILPCAT, Phase 2:

1. Fact or Fiction: The Knicks were smart to hold Jeremy Lin out.

Jim Cavan, Knickerblogger: Fact. Look, we get the whole Willis Reed resurrection narrative thing. But Lin ain’t no Reed, and these ain’t no 1970 Knicks. Besides, I’m not totally convinced that a 60% Lin is any better than whatever 100% point platoon the Knicks end up going with. Better to wait until next year. We Knick faithful are used to that anyway.

Tom Haberstroh: Fact. This was fascinating to watch because the organization needed to weigh the short-term payoff vs. long-term risks. Play him now and try to fight your way back into the series at the risk of another knee injury? Sit him and ensure that you have a healthy point guard on the roster for next season? They chose the latter and that was the smart decision; the realistic upside in playing him just isn’t there.

Michael Wallace: Fact. If Lin isn’t ready to return from that knee injury, then he simply isn’t ready. No need to rush it, especially after seeing two of his backcourt teammates blow out their knees already in this series. It just doesn’t make sense to risk setting yourself back for the start of next season in order to play in a series that seems all but over at this point.

Brian Windhorst: Fact. This is a complete no brainer to be honest. Let’s assume you’re Lin. Your knee doesn’t feel right, probably more than you’re even letting on to the media. Then you see Iman Shumpert and Baron Davis have to be carried off the court in the same week. Are you going to rush it?

Jared Zwerling, ESPN New York: Fact. First of all, Lin hasn’t had ample court time to prepare for the Heat’s swarming pick-and-roll defense, which forced him into eight turnovers on Feb. 23. In addition, playoff games, in general, are a different beast. In recent scrimmages, Lin has moved a bit gingerly and hasn’t played with full intensity, so there’s no way he’d ready for that level of physicality. After a season with so many injuries, the Knicks would look stupid if Lin suffered a setback for a vain cause. They should invest in his health to make sure he’s their long-term solution at point guard.

Check out the rest, before it checks you out!

71 comments on “ESPN 5-on-5: Knicks-Heat Game 5

  1. thenamestsam

    Good stuff, but I got to give Jim some heat for the “hot-shooting Shane Battier” comment. He’s shooting 28% on 3s and both his TS% and eFG% are down from his season averages.

  2. Frank

    This has been a year full of unexpected twists – and I can’t imagine a less likely twist at this point than Toney Douglas redeeming himself with a big shot, steal, or other play of some sort. Even though he has played really really horrifically this year, I still root for the guy because he works hard and doesn’t complain/preen/pose etc. Would be a great story if he somehow rediscovers TDDWTDD circa post-ASB 2010-2011.

  3. Kikuchiyo

    Frank:
    This has been a year full of unexpected twists – and I can’t imagine a less likely twist at this point than Toney Douglas redeeming himself with a big shot, steal, or other play of some sort.Even though he has played really really horrifically this year, I still root for the guy because he works hard and doesn’t complain/preen/pose etc. Would be a great story if he somehow rediscovers TDDWTDD circa post-ASB 2010-2011.

    I share your sentiment but it’s about as likely as an Eddy Curry dunkfest on the Miami side. (Basketballs, not donuts.)

  4. Jim Cavan Post author

    thenamestsam:
    Good stuff, but I got to give Jim some heat for the “hot-shooting Shane Battier” comment. He’s shooting 28% on 3s and both his TS% and eFG% are down from his season averages.

    That response was actually from a previous 5-on-5, before Battier went 0 for 20 or whatever in Games 3 and 4, and they didn’t cut and paste my actual response in (which it is now). It’s not my fault, I swear!

  5. TelegraphedPass

    ephus: MILPCAT!This article from Mark Titus on Greg Oden (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7908766/a-rare-interview-former-no-1-overall-pick-greg-oden-injury-plagued-career) gives good reasons to hold Lin back until he is fully ready. Oden tried to come back to early three separate times, each time leading to more surgery.

    This is fantastic. I figured it must be tough being Greg Oden sometimes, but him clearing the air really reveals it.

    Durant honestly was a complete shock turning out this good, but Greg was just so talented. If Oden stayed healthy, I’m pretty sure only Dwight could be a more dominant center in the league today.

  6. cgreene

    On a slightly tangential note, why would we offer Jeremy Lin the full MLE after he played 30 games at a high level coming off an injury that now it’s certainly not 100% will be easy to heal? I love the guy but I really think that the entire max MLE is a bit high of an ask for 30 games and an injured knee. Why is everyone so sure he’s going to command all that $ and years?

  7. Garson

    cgreene:
    On a slightly tangential note, why would we offer Jeremy Lin the full MLE after he played 30 games at a high level coming off an injury that now it’s certainly not 100% will be easy to heal?I love the guy but I really think that the entire max MLE is a bit high of an ask for 30 games and an injured knee.Why is everyone so sure he’s going to command all that $ and years?

    its really what another team values him at… and given his ability to fill seats , and his numbers when he actually played, i can see other teams giving him that amount.

    At that point we would be forced to match.

  8. TelegraphedPass

    cgreene: On a slightly tangential note, why would we offer Jeremy Lin the full MLE after he played 30 games at a high level coming off an injury that now it’s certainly not 100% will be easy to heal? I love the guy but I really think that the entire max MLE is a bit high of an ask for 30 games and an injured knee. Why is everyone so sure he’s going to command all that $ and years?

    Because what we’ve seen from him is well worth the money?

    I know the sample size is small, but that alone isn’t a good enough reason to discount a players production. Look at Kyrie Irving. People tried to say taking him with the #1 pick was a bit foolish considering how little we saw of him. Yeah, and what we saw was great. Now it’s pretty clear he deserved that pick.

    Where will you find a competent starting PG for <$6m per year? I understand if you think Nash will be available to us for that price, but honestly outside of Nash there are few options available.

    I'm not sure you fully appreciate just how good Lin has been this season.

  9. ephus

    TelegraphedPass: Durant honestly was a complete shock turning out this good, but Greg was just so talented. If Oden stayed healthy, I’m pretty sure only Dwight could be a more dominant center in the league today.

    As he never tires of writing, Bill Simmons did correctly call the Oden/Durant draft. He predicted both that Durant would be superstar and that Oden would be a frequently-injured washout.

    If I were Lon Babby, I would rush to sign Oden to a three year contract at the veteran’s minimum, with a player option on year three. As someone linked to yesterday, the Suns training staff has been as good as the Blazers has been bad. Tell Oden that his only job during the first year is to recover, with an eye towards playing in year two. Even if it takes until year 3, a healthy Oden who provided only his pre-injury numbers would be worth the investment.

  10. TelegraphedPass

    Garson: its really what another team values him at… and given his ability to fill seats , and his numbers when he actually played, i can see other teams giving him that amount. At that point we would be forced to match.

    I’m pretty sure MSG hasn’t had much problems filling seats with or without Jeremy Lin. I don’t buy the idea that Dolan HAS to re-sign Lin just for financial reasons.

  11. bc2k

    Not that Knicks wants to offer him full MLE. Unless they’re willing to give up Lin, you can be sure there are other teams that”ll pay him 5 million a year to start and fill up their stadium seats every game. Knicks are forced to match unless they don’t care if Lin stays or not next year.

    cgreene:
    On a slightly tangential note, why would we offer Jeremy Lin the full MLE after he played 30 games at a high level coming off an injury that now it’s certainly not 100% will be easy to heal?I love the guy but I really think that the entire max MLE is a bit high of an ask for 30 games and an injured knee.Why is everyone so sure he’s going to command all that $ and years?

  12. TelegraphedPass

    ephus: As he never tires of writing, Bill Simmons did correctly call the Oden/Durant draft. He predicted both that Durant would be superstar and that Oden would be a frequently-injured washout. If I were Lon Babby, I would rush to sign Oden to a three year contract at the veteran’s minimum, with a player option on year three. As someone linked to yesterday, the Suns training staff has been as good as the Blazers has been bad. Tell Oden that his only job during the first year is to recover, with an eye towards playing in year two. Even if it takes until year 3, a healthy Oden who provided only his pre-injury numbers would be worth the investment.

    Doubt Oden would accept. He said himself that he isn’t hurting for money. He believes he can come back from the surgeries and play again, and even a shadow of healthy Greg Oden is worth a couple million dollars and Oden knows it.

    And several people called Durant over Oden, but I highly doubt anyone knew Durant would be this good. Even his rookie year, I’m not sure anyone was convinced Durant would be better than Melo.

  13. ephus

    TelegraphedPass: cgreene: On a slightly tangential note, why would we offer Jeremy Lin the full MLE after he played 30 games at a high level coming off an injury that now it’s certainly not 100% will be easy to heal? I love the guy but I really think that the entire max MLE is a bit high of an ask for 30 games and an injured knee. Why is everyone so sure he’s going to command all that $ and years

    Another reason to offer Lin the full MLE is that there is not much for the Knicks to gain by offering less than the full MLE. The Knicks are not going to have room under the cap to sign a free agent without using an exception. Since the MLE is now ~$5 million and the Biannual is now ~$1.9 million, the Knicks would have to get Lin to agree to less than $3.1 million as a starting salary to have any additional flexibility. $3.1 million is likely going to be the mini-MLE level, so every team will be able to bid at least that much.

    Best case scenario for the Knicks is that they get Lin to take a two year MLE deal, in which case they will have full Bird rights when that contract expires. If Lin turns into a superstar, the Knicks will be able to bid more than any other team. If Lin does not develop, they have not tied up cap space beyond the Melo/Amar’e/Chandler years.

    The tough decision will be if a team looking to make a splash (Toronto or Brooklyn?) signs Lin to a four year max offer sheet. Because of the Gilbert Arenas protection, the max for the first two years would be equal to the MLE, but the max for the last two years could be ~$13 million/year. Matching that sheet really would restirct the Knicks choices when the Melo/Amar’e/Chandler contracts expire.

  14. thenamestsam

    ephus: As he never tires of writing, Bill Simmons did correctly call the Oden/Durant draft.He predicted both that Durant would be superstar and that Oden would be a frequently-injured washout.

    If I were Lon Babby, I would rush to sign Oden to a three year contract at the veteran’s minimum, with a player option on year three.As someone linked to yesterday, the Suns training staff has been as good as the Blazers has been bad.Tell Oden that his only job during the first year is to recover, with an eye towards playing in year two.Even if it takes until year 3, a healthy Oden who provided only his pre-injury numbers would be worth the investment.

    Simmons was right on Durant over Oden, but you’re misstating his position when you say he felt that “Oden would be a frequently-injured washout”. He did bring up the injury possibilities, but he was more concerned about Oden’s lack of will to dominate and lack of love for basketball. He repeatedly compared Oden to Ewing (in a negative way) in terms of a guy with all the talent who just didn’t have the heart (total bullshit, but he is a Boston fan). That’s not the same as saying he’d be a washout at all.

    Honestly if Oden had ONLY turned into Ewing instead of Hakeem or Duncan, I’d rather have that than what Durant has become, as great as he is but it obviously didn’t turn out that way.

    The mock draft piece with Simmons and Ford going back and forth on this is here:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=nbamockdraft/070627

  15. johnlocke

    Folks already forget this… look at the plays he’s making out there at the PG position.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpXNgFCI-b0

    TelegraphedPass: Because what we’ve seen from him is well worth the money?

    I know the sample size is small, but that alone isn’t a good enough reason to discount a players production. Look at Kyrie Irving. People tried to say taking him with the #1 pick was a bit foolish considering how little we saw of him. Yeah, and what we saw was great. Now it’s pretty clear he deserved that pick.

    Where will you find a competent starting PG for <$6m per year? I understand if you think Nash will be available to us for that price, but honestly outside of Nash there are few options available.

    I’m not sure you fully appreciate just how good Lin has been this season.

  16. ephus

    TelegraphedPass: And several people called Durant over Oden, but I highly doubt anyone knew Durant would be this good. Even his rookie year, I’m not sure anyone was convinced Durant would be better than Melo.

    Here is what Simmons wrote at the time:

    I see Durant’s worst case as a lankier, more benign Glenn Robinson. But I can’t picture his best case or most plausible scenario, because there has never been anyone like him before. A 6’9″ shooting guard with a 7’5″ wingspan? And he’s still growing? I see pieces of different players — KG’s body, Bob McAdoo’s scoring, MJ’s competitiveness, T-Mac’s ability to attack the rim with either hand, Hakeem’s fallaway, C-Webb’s passing. But add it up and you get an original. Durant is the first iPod, or the plane the Wright brothers built.

    Suns would have to sell Oden on the idea that he is more likely to recover using their training staff than trying to rehab on his own. They could even make year 3 a player option, so that if Oden came back strong in year 2, he would be back on the market with the Suns holding Early Bird rights.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/070622

  17. TelegraphedPass

    I mean, it was clear at the time that Durant had franchise potential. To a certain extent Simmons was accurate there. But he, and others, have made hilariously inaccurate calls on prospects over the years as well. Remember what Bayless said about Tyson Chandler and Diop?

  18. ephus

    I was wrong in remembering Simmons’ comments on Oden when he came back from his first microfracture surgery as if they were made pre-draft:

    I needed to fit him on my Whelm Scale. He ended up landing “under.” Oden ran with— there’s no other way to say it—a noticeable limp. His body sank within itself, like the token tall guy in college who decides it’s better to slump than to listen to tall jokes for the next four years. He jogged every time there was an opportunity to jog. Physically, he didn’t seem any more intimidating than his teammate LaMarcus Aldridge. Everything about his body language said, “I’m not healthy or confident in my body yet.”

    Sure, he could dunk in traffic, challenge a few shots, sink an ugly jump hook or two. But everything came in quick bursts. His game lacked a certain fluidity that great centers usually have. It’s the same quality that bothered me about the guy in college: Maybe all the parts were there, but the whole rarely matched them.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3683493

  19. ephus

    Second half of the quote got cut off:

    This is where we stand. I just know what I saw, and here’s what I saw: a 20-year-old guy who walked and ran like he was 35. Of course, you could have said the same about him in Columbus, but back then, at least he would randomly unleash an occasional superfreak moment: a hellacious dunk, a Russell-like block, whatever. Not anymore. His current ceiling looks more like Erick Dampier on a really good day.

  20. cgreene

    TelegraphedPass: Because what we’ve seen from him is well worth the money?

    I know the sample size is small, but that alone isn’t a good enough reason to discount a players production. Look at Kyrie Irving. People tried to say taking him with the #1 pick was a bit foolish considering how little we saw of him. Yeah, and what we saw was great. Now it’s pretty clear he deserved that pick.

    Where will you find a competent starting PG for <$6m per year? I understand if you think Nash will be available to us for that price, but honestly outside of Nash there are few options available.

    I’m not sure you fully appreciate just how good Lin has been this season.

    Rookie deals are much more economical. I have a bad feeling that this isn’t going to turn out. Not bc he isn’t good but maybe bc he doesnt have the physical tools to handle the rigors of the NBA. Just riffing…

  21. Frank

    ephus:
    The tough decision will be if a team looking to make a splash (Toronto or Brooklyn?) signs Lin to a four year max offer sheet.Because of the Gilbert Arenas protection, the max for the first two years would be equal to the MLE, but the max for the last two years could be ~$13 million/year.Matching that sheet really would restirct the Knicks choices when the Melo/Amar’e/Chandler contracts expire.

    That would be a really difficult decision – mostly because there are other players out there that might give you an equal basketball performance without that balloon payment in years 3 and 4 – for example, Steve Nash, Goran Dragic, or even Andre Miller. I understand that Lin has looked great in his limited time, but at $13M for years 3 and 4, he needs to be nearly on par with the D-Will’s of the world for it to be a good value. And this is from a guy who bought his kid a Lin jersey after his first start!

  22. 2FOR18

    thenamestsam: Simmons was right on Durant over Oden, but you’re misstating his position when you say he felt that “Oden would be a frequently-injured washout”. He did bring up the injury possibilities, but he was more concerned about Oden’s lack of will to dominate and lack of love for basketball. He repeatedly compared Oden to Ewing (in a negative way) in terms of a guy with all the talent who just didn’t have the heart (total bullshit, but he is a Boston fan). That’s not the same as saying he’d be a washout at all.

    Honestly if Oden had ONLY turned into Ewing instead of Hakeem or Duncan, I’d rather have that than what Durant has become, as great as he is but it obviously didn’t turn out that way.

    The mock draft piece with Simmons and Ford going back and forth on this is here:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=nbamockdraft/070627

    I don’t remember which article it was, but Simmons, if he didn’t outright predict that Oden would be injured, did comment that Oden walked like an old man when he saw him at the draft and that Durant was a no-brainer over Oden, so he needs to be given full credit for that call.

  23. Frank

    FWIW Hahn just said in his live chat that he would be wary of giving the full MLE to Lin (because of small sample size) and that the Knicks would do well to let the market set the price for him and then decide. If you remember, even at the height of Linsanity a lot of (anonymous of course) scouts STILL didn’t think he was much more than a good backup PG.

  24. TelegraphedPass

    cgreene: Rookie deals are much more economical. I have a bad feeling that this isn’t going to turn out. Not bc he isn’t good but maybe bc he doesnt have the physical tools to handle the rigors of the NBA. Just riffing…

    I’m curious what worries you. Apart from his decidedly average wingspan, he’s among the biggest point guards in the league. He’s a legit 6’3″ and 200+ pounds. He’s got some interesting potential on the defensive end just off of sheer size, but offensively his ceiling looks pretty nice.

    He’s a huge threat in isolation. He’s got a great handle, especially going right, and he is just too strong and explosive for many guards. PGs bounce off him as Lin careens towards the rim, and he draws a solid amount of fouls because of it. He’s shown a tough mindset, bouncing up from forearm shivers and slaps underneath the basket.

    He’s pretty good using the PnR (though not as good as most people seem to believe). Once he finds a seam into the lane, Lin has developed a solid floater off glass. I remember him working hard on that during his D-League days. He’s got pretty good touch around the basket, though he lacks the finesse true superstar PGs usually have. He doesn’t adjust like Rose, Russ, Tony Parker, or AI can, but he’s bigger than all of them.

    He’s ball-dominant, and only a mediocre spot up shooter. He’ll need to work on that if he wants to become really devastating in our offensive system here. That’s a much bigger issue than his reluctance to go left. He’s also indecisive with his dribble when cut off in the paint, and turns it over too often in those situations.

    Even with these weaknesses, his strengths and the variety he brings into the offense more than make up for those (very workable) flaws.

  25. TelegraphedPass

    2FOR18: I don’t remember which article it was, but Simmons, if he didn’t outright predict that Oden would be injured, did comment that Oden walked like an old man when he saw him at the draft and that Durant was a no-brainer over Oden, so he needs to be given full credit for that call.

    I believe it was in The Book of Basketball.

  26. TelegraphedPass

    Frank: FWIW Hahn just said in his live chat that he would be wary of giving the full MLE to Lin (because of small sample size) and that the Knicks would do well to let the market set the price for him and then decide. If you remember, even at the height of Linsanity a lot of (anonymous of course) scouts STILL didn’t think he was much more than a good backup PG.

    How many grains of salt do we need with that one, though? I would need more specific reasons why he wasn’t even a starting PG.

  27. Caleb

    Of course Lin is worth the mid-level – that’s why we assume multiple teams will be willing to offer it and we’ll be forced to match. Unless he has permanent bad knees (no hint of that from the doctors), his worst-case scenario is mediocre starting PG, which is worth the mid-level. The upside is a lot better, and we’ll be paying for the best years of his career.

    The lucky scenario would be if no team makes him an offer, because they know the knicks will match and they don’t want to tie up their money. That’s less likely now that the waiting period is shorter (down to 3 days, right?) but any team has to know that it’s pointless to offer Lin a contract, unless it’s to force the Knicks to spend $$.

    So there’s gamesmanship involved. Probably, the teams most likely to offer Lin a contract, are teams that want Novak or Smith – teams that want to make sure the Knicks don’t have their mid-level available for anyone BUT Lin.

  28. Caleb

    Anyone who doesn’t think a healthy Lin is a starting PG should not be working for an NBA team.

  29. ephus

    If the Knicks want a chance to keep Jeremy Lin beyond next year, they have to get him to sign at least a two year deal. This off-season, they are protected by the Gilbert Arenas exception — meaning no one else can offer above the MLE for the next two years. If Lin signs for only one year, next off-season the Knicks will only have Early Bird rights and will not be protected by the Gilbert Arenas exception. So, even though Lin would still be a RFA, the Knicks would not have the cap space to offer over the MLE.

    If anyone has the link to the Hahn chat, I would love to see if he said what he would want to do with the carve-out from the MLE that would be worth coming out with less than the full MLE as the initial offer to Lin. I think, at a minimum, the Lakers would get into the bidding for Lin at the mini-MLE. He would start ahead of Sessions (or at worst take 20+ minutes).

  30. Caleb

    On Durant, a lot of people were super-high on him – there were reportedly even a few GMs who wanted to make him the #1 pick in the draft, ahead of the once-every-10-years franchise center.

    The only reason he was consensus #2 is because Oden was thought to be a safe, guaranteed star.

    Hard to say whether the Blazers (and other teams) were foolish, or just unlucky. You’d have to know the technical aspects of his medical file, and what the doctors were saying.

  31. Caleb

    Lin is a restricted free agent, and the Knicks are going to match. Period.

    I am pretty sure teams can’t give him a massively backloaded deal (like $5m / $5m / $12m) because I think annual raises are still capped in the CBA.

  32. thenamestsam

    2FOR18: I don’t remember which article it was, but Simmons, if he didn’t outright predict that Oden would be injured, did comment that Oden walked like an old man when he saw him at the draft and that Durant was a no-brainer over Oden, so he needs to be given full credit for that call.

    He was definitely right, no arguing with that. I just think Simmons (as he often does) has somewhat skewed what he said at the time in his later pieces. While he was correct that Durant turned out to be the better player, you can see from the pieces he was writing at the time that while he was concerned about Oden being injury prone he still thought he would be a franchise center. He just thought he had more Mourning or Ewing in him than Hakeem or Russell.

    Maybe at the time he was thinking the guy was going to be a total bust and would never be healthy based on the way he walked etc., but we have no way of knowing. It was only after the microfracture surgery that he started writing that stuff. So I give him credit for the Durant over Oden prediction, but I don’t see how you can give him credit for the Oden being injury prone thing. It’s not that bold a prediction once the guy had already had microfracture surgery before he played a game in the league.

  33. Frank

    Caleb:
    Lin is a restricted free agent, and the Knicks are going to match. Period.

    I am pretty sure teams can’t give him a massively backloaded deal (like $5m / $5m / $12m) because I think annual raises are still capped in the CBA.

    Perhaps Brian can correct me but teams like the Raptors and Nets can make a huge offer if they want to, up to the max contract basically. The rule with Arenas players is that they cannot make more than the MLE in year 1 and the MLE +4.5% in year 2, but after that all bets are off. A team well below the cap can make an offer that has an AVERAGE value over the whole contract equal to or less than their cap space in 2012-13. Coon does a better job of explaining it in his FAQ, but basically, if a team has $9M in cap space in 2012-13, they can offer Lin a 4 year, $36M contract in which the 1st 2 years are worth roughly $11M and the last 2 are worth $25M. According to Coon at least, there are no issues with max raises.

    See: https://webfiles.uci.edu/lcoon/cbafaq/salarycap.htm
    and go down to item 44 (and also footnote 2 addresses the max raise issue).

  34. ephus

    According to Larry Coon (www.cbafq.com), the Gilbert Arenas protection allows for a massively backloaded deal:

    44. What is the “Gilbert Arenas” provision?

    Before 2005 it was sometimes possible to sign restricted free agents to offer sheets their original teams couldn’t match. This happened when a player was an Early Bird or Non-Bird free agent (see question number 25) and the team didn’t have enough cap room to match a sufficiently large offer.

    This loophole was addressed starting with the 2005 CBA (although not closed completely — see below). Teams are now limited in the salary they can offer in an offer sheet to a restricted free agent with one or two years in the league. The first-year salary in the offer sheet cannot be greater than the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception (see question number 25). Limiting the first-year salary in this way enables the player’s original team to match the offer sheet by using the Early Bird exception (if applicable — see question number 25), or Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception (provided they have it and haven’t used it already)1.

    The second-year salary in such an offer sheet is limited to the standard 4.5% raise. The third-year salary can jump considerably — it is allowed to be as high as it would have been had the first-year salary not been limited by this rule to the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception2. The salary in the fourth season may increase (or decrease) by up to 4.1% of the salary in the third season. The offer sheet can only contain the large jump in the third season if it provides the highest salary allowed in the first two seasons, it is fully guaranteed, and it contains no bonuses of any kind.

  35. Z

    Frank:
    FWIW Hahn just said in his live chat that he would be wary of giving the full MLE to Lin (because of small sample size) and that the Knicks would do well to let the market set the price for him and then decide. If you remember, even at the height of Linsanity a lot of (anonymous of course) scouts STILL didn’t think he was much more than a good backup PG.

    That’s linteresting, but the Knicks’ linability to find competent backcourt players (resorting to linadequate has-beens) should be lincentive enough to not linfuriate linvestors, or linterrupt the love affair with fans, and sign Jeremy Lin to the full MLE. Linsurance should cover future knee lissues, and saying that they plan to match any offer could lintimidate other teams from linquiring about his potential availability.

    Sure, it’s a small sample, but we’re talking about a listant international star– an athlete and a lintellectual– who is a shoe-in to be linducted into the Taiwanese basketball hall-of-fame. (And who cares what scouts think?– they think all stars have to come from the linnercity.)

  36. johnlocke

    We don’t free up much room by not signing him to the full MLE as stated by someone else above, so the real question is whether we use the MLE on someone other than Lin. It’s not clear that Nash would halve is salary and take the MLE to come to the Knicks. The only other PGs below that I think are in the discussion for being as valuable as Lin are Nash (too old and expensive); Goran Dragic (similar numbers to Lin and older); and Andre Miller (too old and expensive). Maybe we can get Felton as a back-up but that’s a different convo. Point being if we don’t sign Lin, we don’t have good alternatives and it’s not even clear we’d be able to offer Nash a compelling 2 yr offer.

    2012 Unrestricted FA PGs available:
    Kirk Hinrich
    J. Pargo
    John Lucas III -
    Jason Kidd
    Andre Miller
    Nate Robinson
    Goran Dragic
    Mo Williams
    Ramon Sessions
    Deron Williams
    Derrick Fisher
    Jameer Nelson
    Steve Nash
    Raymond Felton
    Jerryd Bayless
    Jamal Tinsley

    Caleb:
    Lin is a restricted free agent, and the Knicks are going to match. Period.

    I am pretty sure teams can’t give him a massively backloaded deal (like $5m / $5m / $12m) because I think annual raises are still capped in the CBA.

  37. Frank

    I’m most worried about the Nets, since they want to make a big splash, and because Prokhorov likes to mess with Dolan. On top of that, they have a HUGE amount of cap space, so can probably make a max offer to someone else AND whatever ends up being the “max offer” for Jeremy.

    The restricted FA waiting period is probably still a pretty powerful deterrent though – things may happen fast and furious on July 1 and I’m not sure teams will want to lose their flexibility just to mess with the Knicks. It’d have to be a team that really WANTS Jeremy and thinks they can somehow get the Knicks not to match.

  38. TelegraphedPass

    Z: That’s linteresting, but the Knicks’ linability to find competent backcourt players (resorting to linadequate has-beens) should be lincentive enough to not linfuriate linvestors, or linterrupt the love affair with fans, and sign Jeremy Lin to the full MLE. Linsurance should cover future knee lissues, and saying that they plan to match any offer could lintimidate other teams from linquiring about his potential availability. Sure, it’s a small sample, but we’re talking about a listant international star– an athlete and a lintellectual– who is a shoe-in to be linducted into the Taiwanese basketball hall-of-fame. (And who cares what scouts think?– they think all stars have to come from the linnercity.)

    You missed the opportunity to call him a “linternational” star. Color me disappointed.

  39. ess-dog

    “Mike Woodson says Toney Douglas will be the first guard off of the #Knicks bench tonight.”

    twat Ian Begley

  40. ess-dog

    He’s a few years older, but Ramon Sessions only had a pretty similar year to Lin and I can’t imagine him getting much more than the mid level.

    I think we’ll just put it out there right away that we’ll match all offers and scare people away. Then just work out something close to the mid level. NJ will want to focus on keeping Deron, not finding his replacement, and Toronto has Calderon, an up and coming Bayless and a great draft pick. Not sure an oversized offer to Lin is first on the agenda to those teams.

    BUT if JR turns into a hero in game 5 (and/or 6, 7 etc.) maybe he’ll get our midlevel? This organization has been pretty anti point guard for a while, and we’re not in a D’Antoni world any more. Son of Wood likes vets, defense and isos. Of course, that would piss off a lot of people and lose a lot of jersey sales I suppose….

  41. TelegraphedPass

    ess-dog: “Mike Woodson says Toney Douglas will be the first guard off of the #Knicks bench tonight.”twat Ian Begley

    #MILPCAT

  42. TelegraphedPass

    ess-dog: BUT if JR turns into a hero in game 5 (and/or 6, 7 etc.) maybe he’ll get our midlevel? This organization has been pretty anti point guard for a while, and we’re not in a D’Antoni world any more. Son of Wood likes vets, defense and isos. Of course, that would piss off a lot of people and lose a lot of jersey sales I suppose….

    No way JR gets the MLE over Lin. He’s talented and valuable, but strong PG play is more important than JR’s streaky shooting.

    I’m pretty sure Woody isn’t itching to begin the Jamaal Tinsley era in NY.

  43. Frank

    One thing that hasn’t been talked about a lot is how our defense has improved over the series. Miami had an OffEff of >121 and 123 in the first 2 games, then 103, then 95. I think this is due in no small part to Tyson Chandler getting healthy again, but also that maybe we are figuring out some of their sets.

    I know it’s ridiculous to even think about, but if we win this game and the pressure ratchets up on Miami……..?

  44. thenamestsam

    I think @42 made the case pretty perfectly. A full mid level for Lin may not be a slam dunk move from a basketball perspective. No matter how great your performance is, 25 games is only a third of a season. And we don’t really have all the information about the business side of things, but I suspect that side of it is overblown. Linsanity was amazing for MSG in the short-term but going forward I suspect his business value is closely tied to his basketball fate. If he isn’t worth the mid-level from a basketball perspective (meaning not even an average starting PG) he’s not going to have the #2 selling jersey in the league for long, and people aren’t going to be flocking to their TVs to watch him a year from now.

    However the bottom line is that the Knicks don’t have much to lose by offering him the midlevel. They need to get a PG, and there just aren’t many options out there. It basically has to be him or Nash, and as much fun as it is to dream about, I can’t see Nash coming here. He may love NY, but he’s probably only a couple years away from retirement, and he can live wherever he wants after that. For now I expect him to chase a title in an organization with well respected basketball people. If Nash isn’t coming you’re choosing off a pretty short list and with the other factors in Lin’s favor he’s going to get the nod over that list every time.

  45. Frank

    @50 – I’m pretty sure everyone here agrees that Lin is worth the MLE. I only posted Hahn’s statement just as an FYI this is what he thinks. What I’m not sure about is whether the Knicks should match an MLE with a balloon $13M/year payment in years 3 and 4, which will put us in luxury tax territory (assuming we’re not there already by then) AND will tie us to him in 2015-16 after TC/Amare/Melo’s contracts all expire. My inclination is that we will match whatever anyone puts out there, regardless of balloon payment. I’m just not sure that is the right move if backchannels say that Nash wants to go to NYC to finish his career.

    It WOULD be nice to have our backcourt of the future tied up through 15-16 though (Shump+Lin).

  46. TelegraphedPass

    Curious: If we somehow knew Lin would maintain his production from this season moving forward, do you think he’s worth around $12m per? Essentially, if Lin didn’t significantly improve but stayed around this level for the next few years would he be worth that much money?

  47. jon abbey

    Frank: This is exactly what I meant by writers having their own agendas and how they publish linkbait.How much more inflammatory can you make an article title?

    writers almost never write their own headlines, editors generally do that.

  48. d-mar

    ess-dog:
    “Mike Woodson says Toney Douglas will be the first guard off of the #Knicks bench tonight.”

    twat Ian Begley

    In other news, the point spread immediately went from 11 to 19 to account for the 4 times where TD will hand the ball to Miami for fast break dunks

  49. formido

    TelegraphedPass: Durant honestly was a complete shock turning out this good, but Greg was just so talented.

    Complete shock to who? Even Bill Simmons predicted it, and he’s horrible at analyzing basketball.

  50. TelegraphedPass

    formido: Complete shock to who? Even Bill Simmons predicted it, and he’s horrible at analyzing basketball.

    Nobody said when Durant was coming out that he was going to be an MVP candidate or that he’d be this efficient. He was the #2 pick. Duh people thought he could be really good. If people really thought he would be this good, he would have been the #1 pick. I remember the talk when Durant was coming out. People saw potential All-Star. He’s exceeded expectations.

  51. johnlocke

    That’s a pretty high salary for a PG. Paul makes about $16M. I view Lin’s ceiling as Tony Parker…and he makes about $12.5 per.
    If he doesn’t improve he wouldn’t be worth $12M per year, but we’re only going to pay him $5M — what’s the question behind the question? FWIW – given what we’ve seen from him so far, I’d put him in the Top half (top 15) of starting pt guards in the league. I think he’s better than Mike Conley, a very good point guard, who’s making $7M this year.

    TelegraphedPass:
    Curious: If we somehow knew Lin would maintain his production from this season moving forward, do you think he’s worth around $12m per? Essentially, if Lin didn’t significantly improve but stayed around this level for the next few years would he be worth that much money?

  52. ephus

    If Lin’s play as a starter is his true level, even with the turnovers, he is a $12 million/year player. 45% FG/80% FT with 18.2 ppg and 7.7 apg puts him on a level with Rondo (who is considered a bargain at $12 million for 2013-14 and $13 million for 2014-15).

    Rondo obviously has a different skew of abilities (more defense, less on the ball offense, better passing), but if you take Rondo’s contribution as being worth $12 million/year, I say that Lin’s level as a starter this year was at least as valuable.

    TelegraphedPass: May 9, 2012 at 5:01 pm

    Curious: If we somehow knew Lin would maintain his production from this season moving forward, do you think he’s worth around $12m per? Essentially, if Lin didn’t significantly improve but stayed around this level for the next few years would he be worth that much money?

  53. TelegraphedPass

    johnlocke: That’s a pretty high salary for a PG. Paul makes about $16M. I view Lin’s ceiling as Tony Parker…and he makes about $12.5 per.If he doesn’t improve he wouldn’t be worth $12M per year, but we’re only going to pay him $5M — what’s the question behind the question? FWIW – given what we’ve seen from him so far, I’d put him in the Top half (top 15) of starting pt guards in the league. I think he’s better than Mike Conley, a very good point guard, who’s making $7M this year.

    I ask because the potential problem was suggested that a backloaded contract offer could tie us to Lin for years, and give him a hefty salary a couple years from now. I wonder: Even if Lin doesn’t continue to make huge strides, is he worth $10-$12m at his current level of production?

    I think he’d be slightly overpaid at that price from a pure basketball perspective, but I still think NY should and would match that offer sheet.

  54. johnlocke

    If the Knicks beat the Heat tonight somehow, we need an Amare extinguisher tee.

    According to Berman on twitter:

    Stoudemire said he’d accept nickname “The Extinguisher”. Putting out Miami’s fire.

    TelegraphedPass:
    If JR Smith re-signs in NY I’m buying a Who Shot? JR tee.

  55. JC Knickfan

    It’s only 1 game D-league, but JLin seem approved with his summer workout. Supposely his 1 leg squat went for 110 lb to 250 lb and add 3 inches on vertical. Also last season he play 20 games D-league and average 18pt 4.3 assists, 5.8 rpg in 31.7 min.
    He play one D-league game this season had triple double. Can you really get lucky and produce triple double?
    Based on those D-league last year it shouldn’t translates what he put up NBA. In 26 games including NY game he average like 18pt and 8 apg. Base on d-league he potential that got alot better this year.

    Honestly sold me on Lin was when Woodson took over. Lin definitely starting shooting less, but still very efficient. I thought defense was much better under MDA. I hated his defense during Linsanity where he left guy open alot on J’s to double team. Under Woodson he much tighter man-on-man. I thought he better team rounder also specially Indy games. There play where box out Hansbrough trying sneak for O-Reb. He also got nice overback foul call on Granger.

    Other thing Knicks fan are worried about is him being injury-prone. I am too. Good thing are this is his first surgery. This common injury in NBA and they repair instead removed meniscus. I also check college year and he played every game from freshmen and senior. So he doesn’t seem history of being injuryed. It would nice Knicks took page out Sun training staff and worked injury prevention program.
    I do think he need develop his mid-to-short range jumper ala Tony Parker and instead driving in alot taking contact, he pull up in lane for short jumper. Taking so contact is not good idea for long-term career.

  56. Brian Cronin

    writers almost never write their own headlines, editors generally do that.

    They can make suggestions, but yeah, the editors make the final call (and yes, they almost always make them a lot more inflammatory).

  57. Owen

    “Sure, it’s a small sample, but we’re talking about a listant international star– an athlete and a lintellectual– who is a shoe-in to be linducted into the Taiwanese basketball hall-of-fame. (And who cares what scouts think?– they think all stars have to come from the linnercity.)”

    I believe that should a linstant linternational star….

  58. Z

    TelegraphedPass: Nobody said when Durant was coming out that he was going to be an MVP candidate or that he’d be this efficient. He was the #2 pick. Duh people thought he could be really good. If people really thought he would be this good, he would have been the #1 pick. I remember the talk when Durant was coming out. People saw potential All-Star. He’s exceeded expectations.

    Durant was the best player in college. His freshman season is legendary (won every award, broke his conference records). Even Dick Vitale called Durant “the most prolific offensive skilled big perimeter ever” and compared him to Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki.

    It seemd the only thing tha made scouts and GMs link was the fact that he could only bench press something like 90 pounds at the combine.

    In the draft, teams always err on the side of size. Bowie over Jordan, Pervis Ellison over Glen Rice and Tim Hardaway, Olowokandi over Carter/Pierce/, Kwame Brown over Joe Johnson, Andrew Bogut over Chris Paul and Deron Williams…

    Oden is just another example of erring.

  59. Z

    Owen:
    “Sure, it’s a small sample, but we’re talking about a listant international star– an athlete and a lintellectual– who is a shoe-in to be linducted into the Taiwanese basketball hall-of-fame. (And who cares what scouts think?– they think all stars have to come from the linnercity.)”

    I believe that should a linstant linternational star….

    Nope. That was lintentional. :)

  60. JC Knickfan

    Hindsight 20/20 – I wish I didn’t sell my apple stock 2 plus year ago.

    2007 National Championship Oden scored 25 points, and had 12 rebounds and 4 blocked shots in a losing effort against the Florida Gators. Oden and Durant were the first freshmen voted to the All-American First Team since 1990 and the third and fourth overall. Throughout his high-school and college career, Oden never lost a home game. Evidently tough call between those 2.

  61. johnlocke

    And Anthony Davis has more impressive college stats than Greg Oden did. Scary

    JC Knickfan:
    Hindsight 20/20 – I wish I didn’t sell my apple stock 2 plus year ago.

    2007 National Championship Oden scored 25 points, and had 12 rebounds and 4 blocked shots in a losing effort against the Florida Gators. Oden and Durant were the first freshmen voted to the All-American First Team since 1990 and the third and fourth overall. Throughout his high-school and college career, Oden never lost a home game.Evidently tough call between those 2.

  62. bobneptune

    Garson: its really what another team values him at… and given his ability to fill seats , and his numbers when he actually played, i can see other teams giving him that amount.

    At that point we would be forced to match.

    it has very little to do with what other teams value him at, rather his marketing ability he lends to the garden overseas:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2012/03/25/jeremy-lins-brand-thriving-with-knicks-new-coach/

    4 yrs for 20-25 M or whatever the mle is now is chicken feed compared to the revenue stream he drives for msg

Comments are closed.