I think Jordan Hill was the worst news of the summer, but hopefully I’m wrong. A lot of people like him.

I really hope the Knicks don’t lowball Lee to the point of a mid-level offer. Four years at $30 million, or 5 years at $40 million, would still make him one of the better bargains in the league. There’s no point in pushing your luck to make him even cheaper. Don’t force him to play for the Q offer. Like we saw with Ben Gordon, that creates a lot of bad blood and in 2010 there will be 10 teams who can afford to pay DL — you don’t want to be in that position.

In January or February, if it really looks like the cap will be in the low 50s… which I seriously doubt… the Knicks can look toward a trade, instead of free agency — we have >$30 million in expiring contracts, plus Curry and Jeffries expiring in 2011, so any team looking to shed a long-term contract will look to Walsh. Right now I don’t see any great options, but I’m sure a few teams will underperform and start looking to dump their long-term deals.

Just looking for a silver lining because right now it has been very frustrating, from the draft to the frustration of waiting to see what happens with Lee and Nate to now the supposed lower salary cap number for next season just looking for some positive news….

Agreed.

Also, while consumer spending is down and unemployment is up, corporate sponsorships may be a big piece of the NBA’s pie. If companies are feeling good about next year they may commit to season tickets and sponsorship deals. I have no idea where the NBA’s revenue comes from proportionally, as far as ticket sales (individuals vs corporate), merchandise, TV, sponsorships, etc… Would be interesting to know.

“Also, McDyess to the Spurs is a great (if low key) pick-up for the Spurs.”

Really great summer for the Spurs… I had been wondering if they’d lost it. RJ, Blair plus a couple intriguing guards in the 2nd (Dallas will look pretty bad, and SA amazing once again, if Nando de Colo is better than Rodrigue Beaubois long-term… they both play on the same team and de Colo is the better player, Beaubois the better athlete…), now McDyess…
Haislip was an intriguing pick-up as well. He played very well in the Spanish ACB league, but didn’t do as well in the Euroleague. Still an exceptional athlete, good first step for a big. Has improved his shot, hitting 41% of 4.8 3s per game in Spain… only 24% is Euroleague. TS% of 63 in Spain, but only 52 in Euroleague. Not a rebounder. Might be destined to be a Euro star or end of the bench NBA guy, but could crack their rotation as a 4th big.
I heard from a European scout that Tiago Splitter is coming to SA next season… They took him 28th in the 2007 draft, and he’s developed into one of best bigs in Europe since. Was second banana in Tau’s frontcourt to Scola when they drafted him. I’m a big fan and think he’d be great next to Duncan. Not an NBA All-Star, but a guy who knows how the play the game, plays D, moves without the ball and finishes, and improved post game.

Whether or not the economy has turned around, recessions have never made a significant dent on sports leagues and I don’t see any chance it will cut revenue by 10-15 percent — especially since the TV contracts are already locked in, and attendance was UP this year. Sheesh.

That said, this is a bad recession and I won’t be shocked to see the cap drop for the first time — but I predict something in the $55-58 million range.

Of course, if it falls further it would have a big impact on the Knicks and many other teams. But 2010 is still going to be a wild market. For one thing, all the big players will be FAs — Larry Coon is right that no agent will tell his client to wait for the new collective bargaining agreement, i.e. summer 2011. Stern is on the warpath and the next deal could be a tough one for the union. Aside from that, teams have worked so hard to clear cap space that even if the number is $52 million, a lot of teams will have room.

I did a quick count last week, guessing that the cap would stay flat. Obviously, the list is super-rough, and could also undergo some huge shakeups – but it shows pretty clearly that many teams will have money to spend.

This list assumes a $58 million cap… but even at $53 million, you’ve got 6 or 7 teams who can make a max offer — and they’re good draws, not Memphis and OKC.

*>$25 million cap space
Cleveland
Miami
New Jersey

*$20-25 million cap space
Chicago
Houston
Minnesota

*$15-20 million cap space
LA Clippers
Oklahoma City
Sacramento
Utah

*$10-15 million cap space
New York
Atlanta
Memphis
Portland (down to @$5m if the Boozer/Thomas/Hinrich deal flies) Toronto

*0 – $10 million cap space
Boston
Detroit
Milwaukee
Phoenix
Washington

*Capped Out
Charlotte
Dallas
Denver
Golden State
Indiana
LA Lakers
New Orleans
Orlando
Philadelphia
San Antonio

Ha! Never underestimate the ability of the American public to repeat the same mistakes not twice, but over and over and over. Go-go dot-com era — we got suckered. Go-go housing boom — we got suckered. The pattern will repeat again starting in 2011 and ending in 2014.

If the majority of the American public had any financial sense whatsoever, lottery tickets wouldn’t sell the way they do. The most casual statistical analysis reveals lotteries as a tax on people who can’t be bothered to do math. And yet, millions of people still keep spending $50 and more per week hoping to hit it big. If they put that money in a bank and collected simple compound interest for 40 years, they wouldn’t need to win the lottery.

Trust me — the American public has learned nothing from this that they won’t forget as soon as the economy turns around. I’ll bet the farm on that. :-)