One season is a small sample. Every player has season to season variation in their production. With Felton there is no trend to suggest he shoots better early in the shot clock. Out of 5 seasons it’s only happened once. Maybe he has actually changed his game, but in his 5th season and late 20s it’s at least as likely it was a fluke/non-repeatable.

“If anything, last season showed that he CAN hit an open jumper, or gets out on the break a lot. With Brown’s system, I somehow don’t think he runs a lot of breaks.”

Felton’s eFG% on inside shots actually improved a lot more last season than his jumper.

“I’m merely arguing that he has improved as a shooter”

You can’t say that he’s improved until he does it again. He may have improved and he may have had a fluke season. His jumper didn’t really improve, it was his inside shot.
Would you argue that Luke Ridnour suddenly learned how to score a basketball last season, or that he had a fluke season?

“You can make a case that the first 7 seconds is usually fast break, but after that, it seems like the offense is just starting, and he got an open look/drive off a PnR, all positives in D’Antoni’s system too. ”

Again, he did this one year out of 5. In some other season his eFG% early in the shot clock was absolutely miserable.

If Felton plays to his career scoring numbers he’s going to be a lead weight on the offense. That’s not much better than Duhon. Duhon was absolutely atrocious last season, but Felton has been one of the worst starting PGs in the NBA on his career.

Ted Nelson: “I’m projecting based on D’Antoni’s system as compared to that with LB.”Felton’s played less than 1/2 his career for Larry Brown, though. 40%“I’m projecting based on D’Antoni’s system as compared to that with LB.”A lot of people thought Duhon would get better under D’Antoni. And for the first season he did. He’s a good shooter and an average passer. People made the same arguments about him moving from Skiles’ system to D’Antoni’s. “That’s Felton’s statistics with shooting.”That’s one season. He’s played 5 seasons in the NBA. 1 season isn’t really a great sample size, especially when there are 4 other season of evidence to consider:http://www.82games.com/0809/08CHA2.HTMhttp://www.82games.com/0708/07CHA3E.HTMhttp://www.82games.com/0607/06CHA2E.HTMhttp://www.82games.com/0506/05CHA2E.HTMThe same relationship does not hold in any other season. I’ve also never seen any research on whether efficiency by time on the shot clock is or is not consistent or projectable. Maybe Felton suddenly blossoms for D’Antoni, there just isn’t much evidence of coaches and systems having a huge impact on player stats. Minutes and role can.  (Quote)

Well, it’s not that small of a sample size. Sure, it’s not as big as 5 seasons. But if you’re going to include his rookie years and sophmore years, the same arguments can be made of a lot of players that they improve. Superstars improve tremendously by their second or third and even their fourth year. But we all know Felton’s not a superstar. I took his latest season because it shows his improvement in shooting. If anything, last season showed that he CAN hit an open jumper, or gets out on the break a lot. With Brown’s system, I somehow don’t think he runs a lot of breaks.

I don’t know, it’s fun debating these statistics, but I guess only time will tell. I’m merely arguing that he has improved as a shooter (as compared to his previous seasons) and that his shooting last year is not entirely accurate of his shooting because of the extremely high number of shots that came with the shot clock winding down. You can make a case that the first 7 seconds is usually fast break, but after that, it seems like the offense is just starting, and he got an open look/drive off a PnR, all positives in D’Antoni’s system too. Look, I’ve no doubt that Felton isn’t a sharpshooter. I’m merely saying he has more value than Duhon (and we both agree on this). I only disagreed with just looking at their advanced statistical production because I felt like his athleticism (speed, quickness) would translate very well in D’Antoni’s system because not only could he distribute (which you agreed was better than Duhons) but he could also finish around the rim.

Felton’s played less than 1/2 his career for Larry Brown, though. 40%

“I’m projecting based on D’Antoni’s system as compared to that with LB.”

A lot of people thought Duhon would get better under D’Antoni. And for the first season he did. He’s a good shooter and an average passer. People made the same arguments about him moving from Skiles’ system to D’Antoni’s.

“That’s Felton’s statistics with shooting.”

That’s one season. He’s played 5 seasons in the NBA. 1 season isn’t really a great sample size, especially when there are 4 other season of evidence to consider:
http://www.82games.com/0809/08CHA2.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0708/07CHA3E.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0607/06CHA2E.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0506/05CHA2E.HTM

The same relationship does not hold in any other season. I’ve also never seen any research on whether efficiency by time on the shot clock is or is not consistent or projectable.

Maybe Felton suddenly blossoms for D’Antoni, there just isn’t much evidence of coaches and systems having a huge impact on player stats. Minutes and role can.

Shot clock usage Secs. Att. eFG% Ast’d Blk’d Pts
0-10 42% .614 11% 2% 6.3
11-15 32% .558 12% 5% 4.4
16-20 17% .512 12% 1% 2.1
21+ 9% .506 10% 3% 1.1
Crunch 25% .510 11% 2% 3.2

That’s Nash’s. I’m certainly not sayign we’re getting a better shooter than Nash, but it’s a lot more even, and rarely is Nash taking the last shot.

Secs. Att. eFG% Ast’d Blk’d Pts
0-10 44% .487 47% 5% 2.9
11-15 32% .503 46% 3% 2.2
16-20 15% .419 57% 1% 0.9
21+ 8% .368 70% 3% 0.4
Crunch 24% .401 61% 2% 1.3

Above is Duhon’s. Even with taking the majority of his shots within the SSOL, he has a horrible eFG.

Credit goes to 82games.com. I’m sure a lot of the more hardcore/advanced stats people on here use them.

Shot clock usage Secs. Att. eFG% Ast’d Blk’d Pts
0-10 18% .688 10% 0% 0.5
11-15 26% .630 14% 0% 0.6
16-20 28% .380 22% 20% 0.4
21+ 28% .180 25% 8% 0.2
Crunch 56% .280 23% 14% 0.6

That’s Felton’s statistics with shooting. Everyone knows LB is notorius for playing a slow steady pace. He took the majority of his shots with no time left on the clock, and posted a dismal .180. He should fall much more into the first and second tier under SSOL and hopefully, that will translate into a more efficient shooter/scorer.

Agree on not being that excited about Felton individually. I am excited about Felton, Amar’e, Randolph, Azu, etc all combined though.

Ariza will guard the other team’s best wing scorer for NO. He’ll play with Peja, Thornton, and maybe Belinelli and/or Pondexter as well as David West and maybe Brackins so he won’t be asked to carry too much of a scoring or outside shooting load. Chris Paul will be feeding him the ball. He’ll be 25 next season.

He’s certainly not a “star,” but should be a good rotation player on a team that should be over .500 in the Western Conference. I certainly expect a bounce-back season given his historical performance.

The problem with keeping Collison for NO was that he was likely to lose value playing behind Chris Paul and possibly Marcus Thornton. His assist numbers might have fallen if he were on the court with Paul a decent number of minutes. His overall play might have suffered in a role he wasn’t comfortable with. His overall play might suffer period if his rookie season was an aberration. His track record may have been too short to have great trade value, but holding him may not have increased his trade value.

-Felton
Athleticism that doesn’t show up statistically seems pretty useless. Felton’s superior basketball athleticism should be/is reflected in his ability to make the passes and score the points a less athletic player cannot. To excel on defense. To some extent it is reflected in these ways. Felton is a strong defender. He’s a better playmaker than Duhon, probably a bit above average for an NBA PG. The guy is just horrifically awful at putting the ball in the basket. While he is a good defender, to me Felton’s playmaking is not enough to make up for that (as Jason Kidd’s was, for example).
I’m not upset by the signing (contract is far more reasonable than I feared), I’m just not that excited either.

Ted Nelson: ” I’d say his 22yo season was significantly better than Ariza’s.”Based on what? Their stats are very similar, but Collison was significantly better? Win Shares actually says that Ariza was over twice as good as Collison. Ariza’s 2nd half shooting with the Lakers was also a huge jump up: .594 TS%. adrenaline98,There are tons of good PGs in the league. How many teams around the league don’t have a solid PG? The Knicks are perennially one of the only ones.I think you are selling Ariza short based on one bad season after a few good ones (not only in LA, but also Orlando). And, again, I think you are overly optimistic if you say that Collison is a “second star” on a contender. He’s a solid player, but I disagree with using the word “star” with him. To me there are only so many “stars” in the league. If all it takes to be a “star” is to be a solid all-around player then the word loses its meaning to me.What makes Collison a “star” and Ariza not if their stats are very similar? “This guy is not, I repeat, not Chris Duhon. He will not be the issue for us. If Gallo, Randolph, Chandler, and th others do their thing, Felton will be fine.”This isn’t the 90s and Felton isn’t necessarily a better offensive player than Duhon: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=feltora01&y1=2010&p2=duhonch01&y2=2010One of the reasons I don’t like Felton is that he actually reminds me a lot of the Duhon signing: he’s only a short term solution… he’s only making $7 mill per… his play will improve under D’Antoni… he’s got great college pedigree with links to the Knicks… Heard all the same things when Duhon signed. If Felton plays to his career scoring numbers of .493 TS% and 21.1 usage rate… he absolutely will be the problem. He takes a lot of shots and doesn’t score a lot of points.  (Quote)

Ok, maybe I am overly optimistic that Collison would be a second true star. I think he has all-star potential, and would be an excellent starting point on a contending team that didn’t have a solid PG. That may be more of a realistic look at him. I think under the D’Antoni system, he may end up being that all-star.

I’ve never been that impressed with Ariza. Like I said in the previous post, he’s a solid role player when playing a role on a contending team. You pointed out both LA and Orlando. My point is that he’s a decent spot up shooter, a good slasher/floor runner, and a decent defender. The way the ESPN reporters made it sound like is that they now have that key ingredient to keep Chris Paul around! That’s total horse hockey as Ariza has never proven to be anything more than a role player. I also kind of disagree on the Duhon and Felton comparison. I agree with some of your historical and statistical points, but the main difference between the two is their athleticism, and that’s not really categorized. I think Felton can much better use his athletic talent in the D’Antoni system than Duhon could. He runs faster, jumps higher, gets to the hole better. And my hope is that he gets into a pass first mentality like Duhon did. My feeling on Felton is that next year, he either breaks out, or simply becomes pedestrian for the rest of his career.

Based on what? Their stats are very similar, but Collison was significantly better? Win Shares actually says that Ariza was over twice as good as Collison. Ariza’s 2nd half shooting with the Lakers was also a huge jump up: .594 TS%.

adrenaline98,

There are tons of good PGs in the league. How many teams around the league don’t have a solid PG? The Knicks are perennially one of the only ones.

I think you are selling Ariza short based on one bad season after a few good ones (not only in LA, but also Orlando). And, again, I think you are overly optimistic if you say that Collison is a “second star” on a contender. He’s a solid player, but I disagree with using the word “star” with him. To me there are only so many “stars” in the league. If all it takes to be a “star” is to be a solid all-around player then the word loses its meaning to me.
What makes Collison a “star” and Ariza not if their stats are very similar?

“This guy is not, I repeat, not Chris Duhon. He will not be the issue for us. If Gallo, Randolph, Chandler, and th others do their thing, Felton will be fine.”

This isn’t the 90s and Felton isn’t necessarily a better offensive player than Duhon: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=feltora01&y1=2010&p2=duhonch01&y2=2010
One of the reasons I don’t like Felton is that he actually reminds me a lot of the Duhon signing: he’s only a short term solution… he’s only making $7 mill per… his play will improve under D’Antoni… he’s got great college pedigree with links to the Knicks… Heard all the same things when Duhon signed. If Felton plays to his career scoring numbers of .493 TS% and 21.1 usage rate… he absolutely will be the problem. He takes a lot of shots and doesn’t score a lot of points.