Do Players’ Per-Minute Stats Decline When Given More Minutes? No!
Poster Caleb put the following link in a comment to the Isiah Thomas report card, and I think it is interesting enough to get its own thread.
Here is the link, which is a piece written by tziller for BallHype, exploring the results of players who are “promoted” from the bench to starting.
Thanks to the data-collection efforts of Ballhype’s own Jason Gurney, I’m going to try to ensure this claim never gets stated as fact ever again. Using seasons from 1997-98 to the present, we identified all players whom played at least 45 games in two consecutive seasons and whom saw their minutes per game increase by at least five minutes from the first season to the second. The players must have played between 10 and 25 minutes per game in the first season, to ensure we were not dealing with either folks who went from none-to-some playing time or superstar candidates who took over an offense and thus got a minutes boost. This is aimed at roleplayers whose role becomes more prominent — exactly the candidate FD’s Theorem of Intertemporal Heterogeneity implies will suffer from increased minutes.
[Graphic not shown.]
No, increased minutes do not seem to lead to decreased efficiency. In fact, the data indicates increased minutes lead to… increased efficiency. More than 70% of the players in the study (there were 251 in total) saw their PER (which is, by definition, a per-minute summary statistic) increase with the increase in minutes. Players whose minutes per game increased by five saw an average change of +1.38 in their PER. The correlation between increased minutes and change in PER in this data set was +0.20.
It is a fascinating piece, and I think it’s well worth a read.