But honestly, the next plan of Knickerbocker reconstruction would be the lottery. Whoever lands in those first two spots (where Wall and Turner are largely expected to go, no matter who lands there) will most likely have someone expendable to trade. Good to watch for.

Then we have the draft itself…Two second rounders…honestly, I think we need to either keep our picks, or maybe trade down to others who have multiple second rounders (if any) and get as much as we can without having to sign scrubs.

THEN, and ONLY then, can we talk about max FA’s, Lee and the overpaids.

The problem with Crawford in NY is that there was no one in-front of him. He’s the 6th man in Atlanta because there are 5 men in front of him, 2 guards. The Knicks didn’t have Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby in the back-court, let alone those guys in the back-court plus Horford and Josh Smith in the front-court. To Isiah’s credit he claims that he initially envisioned Crawford as the 6th man behind Marbury and Houston… never worked out because Houston’s game/health went MIA and Marbury’s brain/stability went MIA. Hence, Crawford was the #1 option and Nate Robinson was the only guy not named Mardy Collins who was even an alternative.

It is amazing that Crawford has suddenly learned how to shoot a basketball at 29 years old… Rip Van Winkle style. Even if Crawford were the 6th man in NY his production probably wouldn’t have warranted 6th man of the year. He probably would have been a perennial candidate, though.

You do have to credit him a bit for being young and producing a bit: he’ll probably hang around the NBA for a while. I’m not a fan, though. His PER is so high because he takes a TON of shots.

On top of being a bust, he’s gotten worse from year 1 to 2. Could be a good buy low opportunity if he’s learned the offseason work it takes, but I wouldn’t take that risk personally unless the price was really cheap.

Lewis is an interesting comparison as a “stretch 4,” but he was a way more efficient scorer at the same age. Beasley has a big advantage in scoring volume, but if you look at anything besides PER Lewis was the better player. http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=lewisra02&y1=2001&p2=beaslmi01&y2=2010
I’m very skeptical that Beasley can become a high efficiency scorer.

A good comparison may be Antawn Jamison. Jamison is a valuable player in the league, but has been fairly low efficiency his whole career. http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=lewisra02&y1=2001&p2=beaslmi01&y2=2010&p3=robingl01&y3=1996&p4=jamisan01&y4=2000

If Beasley can truly become a plus defender, maybe Rasheed Wallace, though Sheed became less efficient as time went on and he fell more and more in love with his jumper (and lost his athleticism, and smoked pounds and pounds of pot). http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=beaslmi01&y1=2010&p2=wallara01&y2=1997

I also would think about trading Chandler for Beasley… I’m just still not that high on Chandler. I guess the relevant question–to borrow from the Nash v. Dirk hypothetical thrown at me–is do you take Caron Butler or Antawn Jamison? (And how likely are Chandler and Beasley to reach those respective levels?)

When the Knicks made the Hill trade they were doing for the chance to get LeBron. Not to get LeBron, but for the chance. Walsh apparently decided that the mere opportunity to get the greatest player in the world is worth not having your draft pick for 4 straight seasons (Hill, 2010 was already gone, swap in 2011, and then 2012). I can’t say I disagree. It’s a huge risk, but even a 1% chance at LeBron is pretty sweet.
That extra cap space lets you go whichever way LeBron wants if he picks you.
If he doesn’t pick you, then you’re looking at the Ty Thomas’ of the world.

“Ty Thomas is little better and probably fits our needs better also (shot blocker),”

I would not say Thomas is better. It’s not obvious that Hill is better, but I definitely would not say that Thomas’ PER 36 and Rate stats are better than Hill’s. Hill is better besides scoring volume and shot blocking. When you account for the way D’Antoni misused Hill (as a jump shooter) and his splits between NY and Houston… I would rather have Hill.
Thomas is a good (even very good maybe) defender, but he is an awful offensive player: really low efficiency, medium TO. He settles for jumpers despite his otherworldly athleticism. And the Knicks would lose a lot of his defensive ability by playing him at the 5, which D’Antoni would inevitably do because the guy can’t shoot.
The only way Thomas is better is if you look at PER, which overvalues scoring volume.

Speaking generally about the opponent PER from 82games–i.e. not specifically about Lee–I have two big problems with it.
1. I believe they just line the players up by theoretical position and do not actually account for who the player is guarding. If Danilo or Jared Jeffries is the second biggest guy on the court he may be assigned by 82games to the opposing PF, but he may be assigned by D’Antoni to guard the PG. In this case the Knicks PF is on the PG, their PG is guarding the SG, and their SG or SF is guarding the PF.
2. I haven’t actually looked at the data to see if this happens, but if you’re constantly asked to guard one of the better players on the other team your opponent’s PER may be high. Whereas if you’re constantly hidden on defense your opponent PER may be low. Then again, problem 1 makes it unlikely that this metric will even pick up on that. This would especially apply to wings.
A somewhat related problem is that PER isn’t a perfect measure of anything. Maybe your opponent PER looks good because your offense stinks and they are getting a lot of rebounds. Maybe you are forcing your opponent into bad shots, but PER still credits them for volume because you are assigned to the other team’s best scorer every night.

Regarding Lee specifically, when you look back two seasons ago to when he last played primarily at the 4, his opponent PER matches up pretty well with Amare and Boozer and Bosh’s this season (all 18-19). (This season 82games has Lee down as playing 3% of the Knicks minutes at PF and last season 4%, hardly robust samples.) If you’re going to play them at the 5, I’ll take Bosh or even Amare. I would also say that Bosh has more defensive potential based on his athleticism. In terms of actual production, I don’t see a huge difference between the 3 of those guys if they’re your PF.

Look at their per 36 minutes numbers

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=hilljo01&y1=2010&p2=thomaty01&y2=2010

Ty Thomas is little better and probably fits our needs better also (shot blocker), but it seems like we gave up a lot to get rid of Jeffries on year earlier. Ty Thomas is not what I had in mind for that extra 9 million.