In the future, try posting this:

“In other Warrior news, rumor has it that Memphis is prepping a big free agent offer for Monta Ellis. Golden State would be hard-pressed to match, unless they’re prepared to trade Baron Davis, who sources indicate has been drawing the attention of the Miami Heat in a possible sign and trade.”

This way, if it turns out to be true, you look like you are smart and have important friends. If it’s not true, everyone blames your imaginary source, who is always a fail-safe scapegoat.

(The Knickerblogger brass didn’t teach you any trick of the trade before they put you on staff?)

As far as not matching Barcelona’s offer to JCN, I don’t think Memphis had any choice. The dollar’s so weak and JCN didn’t do enough in the NBA to warrant the 5-6 million USD a year he’s going to make in Barcelona (his home town) for the next 4 seasons.

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In regards to “more comparisons/putting the prospects/class in context”… Doerr’s comments on Mayo are what I had in mind.

(The fact that he thinks he’s a PG is what scares me about Mayo and makes me think of Steve Francis, but while Arenas may be overrated I don’t think many teams would mind getting him in the draft.)

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Erich,

“One of the statistical gripes on Win Score was that “regression analysis just doesn’t work for player evaluation”. Now I don’t think that was voiced by Hollinger, but I did smile to see Hollinger going full-out regression analysis on this one.”

Regressions definitely do work to take variables (college stats) and project predicted outcomes (pro success) via a model. I don’t know enough about econometrics or Wages of Wins to say whether regressions work for breaking team success down to the individual level (have been trying it on my own to a very limited extent). Hollinger using regressions to create a model to predict NBA potential of draft prospects doesn’t strike me as very comparable to Berri using econometrics to ascribe team success to individual players, though.

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Anyone think that the “D’Antoni doesn’t like Gallinari” rumors are a similar pre-draft smoke screen to the “Pitino doesn’t think Ron Mercer’s an NBA player” rumors???

I guess Crawford for #14 is a faint possibility, but if the Warriors really want to use the trade exception, I’m guessing they will have better offers. They’re a pretty budget-conscious franchise, and it’s hard to see them going on the hook for $30 million to Jamal Crawford.

In other Warrior news, I saw somewhere that Memphis is prepping a big free agent offer for Monta Ellis. Golden State would be hard-pressed to match, unless they’re prepared to trade Baron Davis asap. (Miami?)

I know rumors fly fast and furious, but three things make this one look realistic. One, Ellis’ hometown is only 2 or 3 hours from Memphis and he supposedly still has a lot of ties there. Two, yesterday the Griz let Juan Carlos Navarro walk back to Spain without even making a counteroffer; Three, it just makes good sense for Memphis.

I’m starting to warm up to the trading down idea… (Speights looks good in both ratings but his lack of team success this season scares me fairly or unfaairly. Chalmers looks really good. CDR is definitely my “sleeper who shouldn’t be a sleeper given his NCAA career” of this draft, ala Josh Howard, Tayshaun Prince, or Danny Granger. I wouldn’t mind Augustin in the mid-teens, but I also wouldn’t jump for joy.) Trading up to get Love or Beasley (if Miami goes with Mayo) would be even better (don’t know how…), then maybe trying to trade into the 20s for Chalmers or CDR.

It’s interesting that Doerr is so pessimistic in his remarks on Westbrook even though his PAWS/40 is the same as Mayo’s and better than Bayless’, Gordon’s, or Augustin’s, especially given that he played on a better team and only Mayo seems comparable defensively… Seems like he’s a steal compared to Bayless, Augustin, or Gordon according to that metric.

Also interesting that Robin Lopez doesn’t look good in WoW terms, given his “grit-guy” rep. Maybe a similar guy to the other Stanford twins Jason and Jarron Collins who both always look bad statistically but help their teams win…

Anthony Randolph looks terrible, but his draft stock is clearly based on his upside so I’d still call him a legit top 20 pick (not #6, though).

Some more comparisons/putting the prospects/class in context would have been nice in both pieces (Hollinger did it more). Maybe a mock draft, and pointing out how some of the prospects with high/low rating in this year’s draft are similar to guys who their system over-/under- rated in the past.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9157

“The final pick in the lottery belongs to the Golden State Warriors, and this pick is also very much in play. The Warriors have some interesting options since the team holds a $9.9 million trade exception. What this means is the club can acquire a high salary player in return for just the 14th pick by simply using the aforementioned trade exception to match salary. Even more intriguing is the fact the exception expires on June 30th, which means the draft is the last real chance for the Warriors to cash it in. Don’t be surprised if teams in need of cap relief such as the Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks engage the Warriors in discussions.”

I do appreciate Hollinger’s work and eagerly look forward to his article on guards.

Looking at position adjusted win score (PAWS) does filter a lot of college bigs to the top of the list, though guards appearing high should be well noted. Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, and Brandon Roy all ranked very highly in past years.
This year, the best WS guards appear to be going back to school (Hudson, Curry) or projected out of the first round (Hill, Lofton). Rose’s splits indicate he can be amazingly good, though there just isn’t enough data to say that with authority.

Re: Rebounds & Win Score
One of the statistical gripes on Win Score was that “regression analysis just doesn’t work for player evaluation”. Now I don’t think that was voiced by Hollinger, but I did smile to see Hollinger going full-out regression analysis on this one.