Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Chris Paul’s Options

[Anyone participating in a Chris Paul to the Knicks discussion should read these two articles first.
ESPN: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/knicks/post/_/id/6847/would-cp3-sacrifice-40-million-to-sign-in-ny
NYTimes: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/30/sports/basketball/chris-paul-was-near-the-garden-but-still-miles-away.html?_r=1&ref=basketball]

I thought I’d break down the options Chris Paul and the Hornets currently have.

Option A: Resign with the Hornets after this season.
Result A: 5 years, $99M ($20M/year)
Hornets are: Thrilled

Option B: Extend contract with the Hornets
Result B: 3 years, $56M + no trade for 6 months ($19M/year)
Hornets are: Very Happy

Option C: Sign extension & trade to New York
Result C: 2 years, $37M ($18.5M/year)
Hornets are: Angry

Option D: Sign extension & trade to team with more assets that New York
Result D: 2 years, $37M ($18.5M/year)
Hornets are: Not as Angry

Option E: Sign as a free agent with Knicks (after they dump Iman Shumpert, Toney Douglas, and Landry Fields)
Result E: 4 years, $58M ($14.5M/year)
Hornets are: Really Pissed

Option F: Sign with another team that can give a max salary cap
Result F: 4 years, $74M ($18.5M/year)
Hornets are: Really Pissed

Option G: Hornets trade Chris Paul without an extension
Result G: Either E or F
Hornets are: Angry (ie. they’ll get less because there is no guarantee he will stay with that team)

A few things are obvious:

  • If Chris Paul wants to get the most money, his best option is to stay in New Orleans
  • If Chris Paul is going to leave, the Hornets best option is to resign him and trade with a team that is not the Knicks.
  • If Chris Paul wants to go to New York, his best option is to get traded there after signing an extension. Unfortunately this isn’t a good deal for the Hornets who are owned by the league. While an owner might make a deal of this sort, I think the league isn’t as likely to do so, because they would get blasted by the public for favoring a big city like New York.
  • Option G isn’t a bad option for New York. But it’s not a particularly good one for Chris Paul if he wants to go to the Knicks since he’d have to come via free agency and lose money.
  • Summary:
    If Paul is willing to risk losing about $5M per year, he can force his way to the Knicks via free agency. Obviously losing Paul to free agency is the worst move for the Hornets, so they may risk trading him. Unfortunately New York isn’t a great trading partner due to all the assets they gave away in the Carmelo deal. If the Hornets refuse to deal with New York because another team has a better offer they can try to force his hand that way. Paul would have to consider whether or not going to another team instead of New York is worth $4M. If Paul is bluffing about signing with New York, the Hornets might call him on it. In that scenario Paul would have to sign with another team that has cap space, which might be as bad as his Hornets team (Kings, Nuggets, Pacers, etc.)

    Ultimately Paul’s decision comes to to three factors:
    1. If Paul wants to come to New York no matter what he can next year, at a financial loss.
    2. If Paul wants to play for a winning team, he’ll most likely have to play nice with the Hornets to find him a suitor for a sign & trade.
    3. If another team blows the Hornets away with an offer, and Paul wants to go to New York he will have to consider leaving money on the table or signing an extension with this other team. (The Knicks don’t have the assets for this.)

    152 comments on “Chris Paul’s Options

    1. mikeplugh

      Nice recap. To me, there has to be something in the money off the court that factors in as well.

      Is NY or LA worth x dollars more than signing somewhere else? Does that x dollars make up for or exceed the contract differences? The Clippers can do the trade thing for him, so the contract dollars and the off court dollars in any scenario where the NY/LA boost comes into play would have to be choice #1. If NY is where his heart is, and the off court NY boost offsets the contract loss, that means something.

    2. Jake S.

      Yeesh, so the only way they can sign him outright is to cut bait with the few role players they have left? How are they supposed to put a team around these guys if they don’t have any draft picks? Does it matter?

    3. Spree8nyk8

      Do they really have to dump Shum/douglas/fields? Can they not sign them after signing Paul? Because of that is the case then uggh. I mean I kinda thought the point of going after him in the offseason was to somewhat preserve the team? If they will lose those players anyway they should probably explore trading them for picks.

    4. Ben R

      Spree – To sign Paul they will have to trade Shumpert, refuse Toney’s option and renounce Fields. To be able to retain the rights to sign Fields after we are over the cap he will have a cap hold, that cap hold would count against the space we need to Paul and make it impossible. Douglas and Shumpert are not free agents next summer so the only way to free that space is trade Shumpert and decline Toney’s option making Toney unrestricted and forcing us to lose his bird rights.

      Take a look at Miami’s supporting cast minus Chalmers, Anthony, Haslem and Miller and it gives you a good idea of what our supporting cast will look like if we are lucky enough to even get Paul to sign here.

      It will literally be Paul, Amare, Melo, Jorts, Jordan, our 2nd round pick next year and minimum salary free agents. No one else.

    5. Spree8nyk8

      Would the min capholds they would have to have be lower than Shumperts salary? I hadn’t read anywhere that they would have to deal shumpert in order to have room for Paul. Like I said if they can’t trade for paul using those guys AND they are going to lose them anyway they would be better off trying to trade for assets. Unless they have the ability to renounce and then sign them to min deals afterwards. I’m not sure what their value will be on the free agent market, I’m sure Landry can do much better than min elsewhere.

      That seriously effects things in my eyes. Maybe this is a pipedream after all.

    6. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      Paul would have to consider whether or not going to another team instead of New York is worth $4M.

      As I’ve mentioned in the other thread(s), this is the most important point to me. The fact that the difference between signing with the Knicks and signing with another team is really roughly $4 million a year. When you boil it down to that point, does anyone really think that Chris Paul cannot make up $4 million a year by being a Knick? Or rather, that Chris Paul cannot make up close enough to $4 million a year for the difference to not really be a big deal at all?

      Even the greatest figure (the difference between signing with the Knicks and signing with the Hornets) is “just” $5.5 million a year.

      As for the Knicks’ roster if they had to sign Paul outright, yes, they’d have to get rid of everyone making over the minimum, but it’s not like they’d cut these guys – they’d be able to get draft picks for all of these guys. Plus once they get Paul they’d be able to sign as many vet minimum guys and undrafted players as they’d like, plus one mini mid-level (heck, they might even have access to a larger mid-level, as I dunno how far over the cap they’d be) plus their second round pick this year. It really is not all that dire, especially since Paul/Amar’e/Melo are more complimentary of a Big Three than Lebron/Wade/Bosh (Lebron/Wade just happen to be better than all but perhaps Paul).

    7. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      Plus I forgot the other part of why that $4 million a year difference thing was so important. It is important because it makes it so realistic that Paul would accept that Knicks’ offer that he would be able to bluff the Hornets into trading him to the Knicks. “I will be going to the Knicks. I can make up the $4 million a year difference in salaries with outside income. If you do not trade me to them, I will be on their team next year and you will have nothing to show for it. You don’t have to trade me, of course, but if you don’t, I will be a Knick and you will have nothing to show for it.”

      As we have seen in the past, no matter the PR hit, teams will eventually buckle down and do sign and trades if the player is definitely leaving anyways. Cleveland did a sign and trade with Lebron, for crying out loud!

      It just comes down to whether Paul is so intent on being a Knick next year that he’s willing to ignore $4 million a year. And who can possibly be all that confident that Paul thinks he can’t make up that $4 million by being a Knick?

    8. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      By the way, just look at how many more endorsement deals Chris Bosh got once he signed with the Heat. The most notable was probably the national “Got Milk?” ad campaign, but you check into it, he was packing in a lot of extra endorsement money. I dunno how much more money that brought into his pockets, but it had to be somewhat significant, and that’s Chris freakin’ Bosh! This is Chris freakin’ Paul! As a Knick!

    9. Spree8nyk8

      Yeah, kinda silly IMO for them to publicly shop him like that. Especially to suggest a trade that honestly wouldn’t happen. I mean Rondo is a great pg if you have the pieces around him. But he can’t be THE GUY. I just can’t really fathom how they would expect NO to trade the best pg in the league for a guy that can’t shoot. I also can’t see how CP3 would extend to a team whose nucleus has 1-2 years at best left in the tank.

      I was also thinking about Howards situation and suppose for a minute that Orlando just decides not to trade him. He would basically have 2 realistic destinations being NJ and the clippers (and while I’m saying this I actually don’t know how much actual cap room the clippers have) aside from NY. Right now it certainly seems like NY is going all out for Paul, and Howard has never really expressed a desire to play for the Nets or the Clippers. I could actually see Orlando simply saying no and daring him to leave. And if he does try to force his way to the Lakers I hope they at least dump both Arenas and Turgolu on them. I just really really really do not want to see another team make a Gasol type trade for the Lakers. I want them to get gouged like the Knicks did if that is what the case is going to be.

      That being said I really think the Knicks should at least discreetly inquire about an Amare for Howard trade. It would be kinda disloyal but I think you have to at least see. If they did that then they could probably come closer to maxing out Paul (that is unless he is extended and traded, I’m thinking that they could probably just sign paul with howards cap hold on the books at max and then sign Howard at max with his bird rights). I’m no cap expert so I could be off on the math there. Maybe someone else could tell me what they see. And I mean maybe this just isn’t even possible. But I do see this being something Orlando would at least have to consider….continued

    10. Spree8nyk8

      because they need to take back either talent that can win (which they won’t get), assets that can be used to rebuild (which is going to hurt their attendance), or a star that can put fans in the seats. I mean NJ’s offer of Lopez and 2 first rounders, idk how great that offer really is. The Lakers might be Howards preferred destination, but if I’m Orlando I’m making you take all of my bad contracts, they already lost shaq to them for nothing which I’m sure still irks them. And with the Lakers simply having no leverage I can’t imagine why they would even consider them unless they were taking both arenas and turkolu and that would mean giving up at least bynum/pau/odom, might even take more. The Clippers can actually give them the best offer but we don’t really know what they would be willing to offer and take back, nor do we know if Howard wants to play for LA’s B team. So when you look at all of that I think Orlando is not necessarily in the worst position afterall. I mean they can either rape someone that covets him badly enough or they can not trade him and dare him to find an offer.

      thoughts?

    11. daJudge

      Great stuff. I have been waiting for this analysis for a long while. I certainly agree with Brian that CP3 can easily make up the 4 million in salary through endorsements, etc… He would be the best guard in NY since Clyde and he seems to have a marketable personality. I don’t believe the charity event was a coincidence at all. The only comment to Mike’s article (as well as the other two referenced articles) is that since New Orleans’s is owned by the ‘League’, traditional analysis might need to be modified. In other words League as a collective business entity may have a very different agenda than the New Orleans Hornets would otherwise have. Even though he pays lip service to small markets, don’t you think Stern wants to see an awesome NY team for pure business reasons? I think this, as well as the economics of playing in NY, bodes very well for Knick fans. CP3 signs with the Knicks next year as a FA.

    12. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      Spree, yes, the Knicks could trade Amar’e for Howard and then sign Paul with the cap room created by renouncing Billups and Turiaf. This would allow them to give Paul and Howard very close to the maximum both could get as free agents. That’s not a statement of whether they should or whether it is likely or not, just that it is, indeed, possible.

    13. Spree8nyk8

      Well from Orlando’s perspective can they really beat that offer from a public view standpoint? I mean maybe a rebuilding offer would make more sense longterm, but how do you sell the fans that you passed up on Amar’e to take Brook Lopez and 2 picks? I’m fairly certain that Amar’e would be the biggest “name” they could get in a trade. Also, would doing that enable them to keep Fields/douglas/shump? Because if it did then it would be kind of a no brainer to pursue. I mean the only thing I can really see Orlando using to turn it down would be if they have decided to rebuild, but they have salary issues that aren’t going away. So they either need a trade that addresses those issues or they need to trade for a star. If they aren’t doing that they might as well put the ball in Howards court and dare him to go to free agency and sign with one of the few teams that can do it.

    14. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      They could keep Fields, Douglas and Shumpert (as well as not waive Balkman), but both Howard and Paul would have to accept slightly less than the MAX they could get. Like a $16 million starting salary rather than $17.5 million. It could even be slightly less than that. Let me crunch the numbers quick and I’ll edit the answer into my comment.

      EDITED TO ADD: Yeah, it’d actually have to be $15 million. They could avoid that by just throwing Douglas into the deal for Howard (losing his $2 million salary and replacing it with a $500,000 miminum cap hold, so giving them another $1.5 to split between Paul and Howard). Then it would be $15.75 million for Howard and and Paul.

      EDITED TO ALSO ADD: Do note that all my figures are based on rough estimates of salaries. Counting Landry as $1 million, presuming Shumpert’s second year salary would be roughly $2 million and factoring all minimum cap holds at $500,000. If I’m wrong on those numbers, well, that would affect things obviously.

    15. d-mar

      As logical as an Amare-Dwight deal might sound, I would be very sad to see Amare go. I have major respect for the way he handled himself coming here and how he embraced the challenge of bringing the Knicks back to relevancy. And he’s just a likeable guy and easy to root for as well.

      But of course you would do that deal in a millisecond.

    16. DS

      I love how the media covers all the stupid s*** athletes buy, how Antoine Walker and Eddy Curry are bankrupt and yet can never imagine that CP3 would forego $4 million a year to play in NYC and (at least in his mind) establish this “big 3″ to compete against the Heat for years to come.

      Paul strongly wants to be a Knick. It’s no secret at all. Don’t believe anything to the contrary.

    17. Mike Kurylo Post author

      Anyone else think the Celtics made public the rumor of Rondo for Paul just to drive the price up? Think about it, Boston doesn’t think that the Hornets will for a second make that deal, at least not in November. Hence they have nothing to lose, and in turn they make the Knicks look bad when they approach with Billups, Fields, & Douglas.

    18. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      Yeah, Mike, I could totally see that. What amazes me, though, is the quick response from around the league’s reporters that the Hornets would not like that because “they have better offers out there” (Bucher tweeted that). For serious? I’d like to see those offers.

    19. Caleb

      @7/8 Like I said before I don’t think there is any extra endorsement & apperance money in coming to NY, much less $4 million. Bosh did get an exposure bump, and CP3 could get one too, but I think that was based on going from a crappy team to a team that’s on ABC every week. The Knicks would be, but they’re not the only one. Oklahoma City and the Clippers would be on a lot, too.

      The smart man’s move at this point would be: trade Carmelo Anthony to Boston for Rono, then max out Dwight Howard next summer.

    20. Caleb

      re: #21, I do think it’s Melo 2.0, in terms of negotiating. The difference is that last year the Knicks had a lot of assets to pull off a deal when it came down to it. This year, not. I predict that it will go the same route, and that Paul – like Melo – will NOT call anyone’s bluff, but will make sure he gets the biggest deal possible.

      Hope I’m wrong!

    21. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      I think the biggest difference between the two is the change in rules (and the fact that there are rules now). Paul cannot get signed and traded to another team and still receive the top salary (like Melo could and did). Therefore, if he wants to leave New Orleans (and I think everyone agrees that he does want to leave New Orleans), he is already definitively losing out on the top salary. So forcing a trade is not the priority like it was for Melo. It is a priority, of course, as he’d certainly prefer $17.5 million and the Knicks still having some players over $13.5 million and the Knicks being bereft of supporting players, but it is not the same situation as Melo who, as we all remember, was also motivated by his fear over what the new rules would look like.

    22. Mike Kurylo Post author

      Caleb: The smart man’s move at this point would be: trade Carmelo Anthony to Boston for Rono, then max out Dwight Howard next summer.

      Why would the Celtics trade Rondo for Carmelo? They already have Pierce.

    23. Mike Kurylo Post author

      Mike Kurylo: Anyone else think the Celtics made public the rumor of Rondo for Paul just to drive the price up? Think about it, Boston doesn’t think that the Hornets will for a second make that deal, at least not in November. Hence they have nothing to lose, and in turn they make the Knicks look bad when they approach with Billups, Fields, & Douglas.

      And of course if Paul doesn’t want to go to Boston he publicly says he won’t resign there (http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/7297944/source-chris-paul-sign-boston-celtics-dealt?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter).

      This is like Game of Thrones, except without all the murder.

    24. dsi

      Knicks should go after Rondo for Billups + Fields + whatever. This will force CP to the Clippers (which wouldn’t suck for him or the Knicks).

    25. DS

      Caleb –

      I disagree. I think Paul WILL call the Hornets’ bluff. I think a big difference between CP3 in ’12 and ‘Melo in ’11 is that ‘Melo was unsure that he would be able to get a bigger deal than the $65 million Denver was offering with the new CBA and if they refused to deal him he would be forced to choose between re-signing for the $65mm or facing the unknown.

      CP3, on the other hand, can threaten to leave to sign with L.A., N.Y. for a pay cut, and N.O. will need to decide if they want to be left with nothing in return.

      The biggest threat to the Knicks, is if (like DWill) he gets sent to a team like OKC and later decides he’s happy and can sign for more than the Knicks can give him.

    26. DS

      On a side note – I can’t imagine why OKC and N.O. wouldn’t do the Westbrook/CP3 swap that everyone assumes is a possibility. OKC would improve greatly and N.O. would get a 23 year-old perennial All-Star.

    27. DS

      Mike Kurylo: Can someone please tell me why Boston would trade Rondo to the Knicks? Is there something in the new CBA about helping division rivals?

      Well there’s some precedent. They gave us Chris Mills.

    28. dsi

      Paul maximizes his total earnings (player salary plus endorsements), and provides for his legacy as a great point guard, by going to a big market team that can compete for a ring. There’s not many teams where he can do that.

      I’m not sure there’s much of a difference between the winning potentials of Melo/Amare/CP and Melo/Amare/Rondo. Get Rondo, push Paul to the Clippers, and have a couple bucks left over.

    29. twoseam2007

      First of all, let me say this. JORTS WILL NOT PLAY!!! he is andy rautins 2.0 but worse at basketball. Anyways, assuming the knicks have no cap space after a paul acquisition, the knicks will have the mini midlevel to play with, jerome jordan if he isn’t sent to new orleans, and they’ll probably be able to buy some draft picks over the years, along with their 2013, 2015, and 2017 picks.

      Potential Starting line up

      PG – Billups
      SG – Shawne Williams?
      SF – Carmelo
      PF – Amar’e
      C – Jerome Jordan (dominated valanciunas a couple weeks ago, and is Sheridan’s pick for ROY (lol))

      Lastly, Renaldo Balkman is getting amnestied. He is the WORST player in the league.

    30. dsi

      Mike Kurylo: Can someone please tell me why Boston would trade Rondo to the Knicks? Is there something in the new CBA about helping division rivals?

      If the Celtics believe the Knicks have Chris Paul in the bag, they’d consider sending Rondo here instead for the right pieces. And then they’d make a run at Paul themselves (which I think would fail).

    31. twoseam2007

      Caleb:
      @7/8 Like I said before I don’t think there is any extra endorsement & apperance money in coming to NY, much less $4 million. Bosh did get an exposure bump, and CP3 could get one too, but I think that was based on going from a crappy team to a team that’s on ABC every week. The Knicks would be, but they’re not the only one. Oklahoma City and the Clippers would be on a lot, too.

      The smart man’s move at this point would be: trade Carmelo Anthony to Boston for Rono, then max out Dwight Howard next summer.

      SEVERAL THINGS WRONG WITH THAT

      A) Carmelo is vastly superior to Rondo
      B) Dwight Howard is not making it to Free agency. He wants that money, and the magic can’t afford to go through a rebuild with no picks, prospects, and saddled down by garbage contracts (even after amnestying arenas, turkoglu is still there). Clips or Showtime for him.
      C) Even if Dwight did make it to free agency, there is no guarantee he’d sign, let alone have any interest whereas Paul obviously has a ton of interest, as reported by broussard and everyone else
      D) There is no way the Knicks-Celtics will make ever a trade of that magnitude, let alone any trade at all given they are division rivals. (Robinson/house deal was a swap of garbage, and merely a fluke)

    32. Mike Kurylo Post author

      twoseam2007: A) Carmelo is vastly superior to Rondo

      Vastly? I don’t know. Rondo is a first team NBA defender and is 2 years younger. But most importantly he has a ring.

      On the other hand he’s not a great fit for D’Antoni’s system.

      On the other other hand, D’Antoni may not be around next year.

    33. Spree8nyk8

      Umm why would they trade Melo for Rondo? They could trade Melo for CP3 or Howard, but again if you were going to trade one of the two stars why would you trade Melo over STAT? I mean if they were going to be able to obtain Howard I would think that Melo/Howard would be better than STAT/Howard.

    34. Spree8nyk8

      I DEFINITELY would not want to see either of them traded to Boston under any circumstance. Boston is bleeding out, no need to throw them a bandage. Let them die.

    35. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      If it was for Howard, yeah, you’d definitely trade Amar’e. If it were for Paul, though, you’d trade Melo.

    36. Jafa

      Reading a lot of insightful comments on this blog. Good to have NBA back. I have a question: What was Donnie Walsh’s original plan?

      If I’m not mistaken, it was to get 2 stars by clearing enough cap room to sign them to the max. He got Amare and then traded for Melo, both with max contracts. Isn’t that it? Why can’t we just start looking for complementary pieces to put around the both of them?

      Consider this: the Mavs beat the Heat with one star player surrounded by very good complementary players. You don’t think we can beat the Heat with 2 star players and very good complementary players?

      Would love to hear about alternatives to a CP3 scenario. Who can we get to round out our roster either via trade or FA?

    37. Frank O.

      I think Paul will handle this better than Melo. Melo got more money, but screwed the team he is playing for by not forcing Denver to take less.
      Melo had the leverage. He didn’t use it and it cost his eventual team. I think Paul will handle this differently.
      Remember, no team is going to make big offers if Paul makes it clear he wants to be a Knick. He can affect this whole thing by playing it right.
      Sure, he may get less money, but if he does it right, not that much less. He could force a sign and trade that works for him, the Knicks and kind of hoses NO.

      it will be interesting to see how much he tries to impact the outcome. I suspect a PG will have a better big picture outlook than a ball hogging SF. :)

    38. art vandelay

      Donnie Walsh´s original plan was to net two superstars, one of whom would be Lebron James, the best player on the planet and infinitely better than either of the Knicks´ stars. However, the entire calculus changed when, surprisingly, the 3 star ended up Heatles. Now, in order to beat them, the theory goes, we must nab a 3rd star, especially since the Heat´s top 2 stars are better than our current 2. As you mentioned, however, it is clear that a well-rounded attack was able to defeat Miami. Problem is, I think Miami will only get better with time as chemistry improves and they have the ability to round out the roster via mid-level and mini-mid-level exceptions.

    39. art vandelay

      Unlike Cp3, though, Melo had a looming work stoppage and potentially completely different CBA hanging over his head, which I think is what caused him to panic, relinquish a bit of his leverage which, in turn, cost the Knicks dearly.

    40. Z

      Frank O.:
      Remember, no team is going to make big offers if Paul makes it clear he wants to be a Knick. He can affect this whole thing by playing it right.

      I don’t know about this. I agree the Griz aren’t going to pay a high price to rent Paul, but I could see OKC taking a gamble that if Paul and Durant go to the finals together that Paul will extend there. Same with Griffin and the Clips. If Paul got a taste of winning before he gets to NY, why would he still want to go to NY? He’s not even a local boy (and he even seems kind of content in small ponds). I think he has his eye on NY because he thinks he can win with ‘Melo and Amar’e. He may even take a pay cut to win with them. But winning is winning, and I think he’d be just as happy to do it in LA or Oklahoma, no?

      Jafa:

      If I’m not mistaken, [Walsh's plan] was to get 2 stars by clearing enough cap room to sign them to the max.He got Amare and then traded for Melo, both with max contracts.Isn’t that it?Why can’t we just start looking for complementary pieces to put around the both of them?

      That was the goal in 2008. But then in 2010 Miami shifted the paradigm in terms of how championship teams are built. New eras call for new rules and new strategies (for better or for worse).

    41. John Kenney

      Wow, lots here.

      @Mike First, anyone who watched the association probably agrees with me that if the C’s are publicly floating a trade rumor about Rondo, absolutely would have a lot to lose. Remember how he was destroyed by the perkins trade? Do they think he’s gonna be ok if he thinks he’s going to be traded? Unless he’s aware of the whole scheme, that would be a tremendously bad idea.

      @Everyone thinking we could get Rondo: Rondo is not available for a player of lesser caliber. Is he available in a package for a better PG? Sure. Would they even consider- even for a millisecond- trading Rondo to us? No. And it’s not just the division rivals thing.. our guys aren’t good enough, much as i love them. The only reason we can even contemplate trades for CP3 is because he has the leverage of being a free agent. To the person who suggested the C’s trade us Rondo to get pieces for the Paul trade.. I mean….you mean the same pieces everyone thinks are absolutely not going to get the Hornets to trade Paul to us?

      My personal speculation is that market size and possibly winning throughout the whole contract are equally important to paul. he has to go somewhere that has both. and that’s why the OKC rumors won’t happen (market) the C’s won’t happen (core is too old) Hornets won’t happen (market and team will be horrible)….. everyone is comparing the Knicks offer to these other possibilities that actually have 0% chance of happening due to other considerations. And when you eliminate those other “alternatives” which are actually not alternatives, then Knicks becomes more and more likely.

    42. Z

      Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):
      Spree, yes, the Knicks could trade Amar’e for Howard and then sign Paul with the cap room created by renouncing Billups and Turiaf. This would allow them to give Paul and Howard very close to the maximum both could get as free agents. That’s not a statement of whether they should or whether it is likely or not, just that it is, indeed, possible.

      I don’t think there is any question that this would be the best big 3 the Knicks could get. Loyalty to Amar’e would prevent NY from doing it? That would be loyalty to a fault. All due respect to Amar’e, but he has only been a Knick for one year, had the worst season of his career here, probably only came to NY because they offered him a lot more money than any other team, injured himself in the playoffs by doing showboat dunks in warm ups, and was, ultimately, just a consolation prize for the Knicks in the 2010 feeding frenzy.

      I like Amar’e. I like him way more than I like Carmelo Anthony. I’d be happy to watch him play for the Knicks for the next four years. But if Dwight Howard can be had (and paired with Chris Paul!), that absolutely NEEDS to get done.

    43. Jafa

      That was the goal in 2008. But then in 2010 Miami shifted the paradigm in terms of how championship teams are built. New eras call for new rules and new strategies (for better or for worse).

      I’m sorry but in 2008, when Walsh put this plan together, the paradigm had already been shifted by Boston, who got 3 stars and went on to win the championship in 2008. After seeing that, Walsh still implemented this plan, believing it was the best course of action.

      And art, you are right that one of those players was supposed to be LBJ. However I believe one does not have to have LBJ on your team to win a championship. It is the reason that OKC, LAL and DAL all have a shot at the title this season (granted, they are all in the West). And unless LBJ is the second coming of Jordan (in his era nobody else could win with him around), I say we got a shot if we round out our roster nicely.

    44. John Kenney

      Dwight has never indicated that he wants to play here. He apparently hates cold weather. And I don’t think many perceive this season as the worst of his career. He was leading the NBA in fourth quarter scoring, multiple come from behind victories, a long winning streak, almost winning in that game against Boston, breaking the consecutive 30pt games record.. then he wore down and got hurt. but i’m not sure that knicks management feels that that means it was the worst season of his career, especially considering others have ended in season ending injuries.

    45. Frank O.

      Z: I don’t know about this. I agree the Griz aren’t going to pay a high price to rent Paul, but I could see OKC taking a gamble that if Paul and Durant go to the finals together that Paul will extend there. Same with Griffin and the Clips. If Paul got a taste of winning before he gets to NY, why would he still want to go to NY? He’s not even a local boy (and he even seems kind of content in small ponds). I think he has his eye on NY because he thinks he can win with ‘Melo and Amar’e. He may even take a pay cut to win with them. But winning is winning, and I think he’d be just as happy to do it in LA or Oklahoma, no?

      you could be right. We are all speculating after all.
      But I find it hard to believe that a team would give up so much and then leave themselves vulnerable to losing the player.
      Desperate teams make those kinds of moves. Teams like the Nets.
      OKC and the Griz are not desperate. They have teams that played exceptionally well in the playoffs and I don’t see them mortgaging team dynamics to bring in a super star. especially one that would rather be a Knick. Not to mention, OKC already has one of the best young guards in the game, and my impression of the Griz is they have a very solid backcourt.
      IMHO, no, Paul, if he wants to be a Knick, will be able to force a trade to the Knicks. But if his interest in the Knicks is overstated, he’ll stay with the money, I’m guessing.

    46. Frank O.

      Okay, I love CP3. He’s in the top 3 PGs in the league.
      But I am amazed that the Celts would shed Rondo. I know he’s a little trouble, but he makes that team tick.
      And he’s younger and likely will be productive when CP3 is retired.
      Why would the Celts move him?
      I realize I may not know enough here, so someone fill me in.

    47. Garson

      Frank O… The only thing that comes to mind is that he still hasnt developed an outside shot that needs to be guarded and cannot win with Defenses clogging the middle. Other then that, i feel hes is the second best (nash ) pure creator in the league and i agree with you.

    48. Jafa

      Another reason Frank O. is the need for more scoring by Boston, which CP3 brings in addition to everything that Rondo currently offers. They have a good defense, but so do the Heat and the Bulls. They have to get an edge scoring wise and their offense is getting predictable (go to PP one-on-one, screens to get Ray open, KG 15 footer) and is not producing enough points.

      If Boston lost PP to injury, they would be a fringe playoff team at best. And it also means they don’t have enough faith that Greene can produce the offense they need.

    49. Jafa

      Boy, would Nene look nice next to Amare…!

      Totally agree. I know we can’t get him right now, as he is a free agent, but would love to explore others that look good next to Amare and Melo.

    50. John Kenney

      @Frank 0 because Chris Paul gives them a better shot at a title this season, and it’s the title that matters.

    51. Z

      John Kenney:
      He was leading the NBA in fourth quarter scoring, multiple come from behind victories, a long winning streak, almost winning in that game against Boston, breaking the consecutive 30pt games record…

      You sound like his agent, trying to net him a max contract :)

      But seriously, you are right that the Knicks are still probably high on Amar’e. I am too. But Howard, IF he can be had, is a bigger franchise C even than Ewing. The only dominant center in the entire league. And especially if Chris Paul can be had, I can’t see making anybody untouchable, especially out of loyalty or a 1 year player with injury concerns. Why do yourself the disservice of making anyone untouchable? (Especially now that the guy who gave Amar’e the contract isn’t even with the team anymore)?

      I think if Otis Smith calls NY and says “I’m going to lose Dwight next summer. You’re on his list of teams he’d extend with. Give me a package centered around Amar’e Stoudemire and he’s yours”, the Knicks would HAVE to do it. (Don’t you?)

    52. twoseam2007

      Z: I don’t think there is any question that this would be the best big 3 the Knicks could get. Loyalty to Amar’e would prevent NY from doing it? That would be loyalty to a fault. All due respect to Amar’e, but he has only been a Knick for one year, had the worst season of his career here, probably only came to NY because they offered him a lot more money than any other team, injured himself in the playoffs by doing showboat dunks in warm ups, and was, ultimately, just a consolation prize for the Knicks in the 2010 feeding frenzy.

      I like Amar’e. I like him way more than I like Carmelo Anthony. I’d be happy to watch him play for the Knicks for the next four years. But if Dwight Howard can be had (and paired with Chris Paul!), that absolutely NEEDS to get done.

      Worst season? He was the front runner for the MVP before the trade. Arguably his BEST SEASON. And even though he has only been here for one season, loyalty is still a factor. If it weren’t for him, we wouldn’t have melo. Hell, we probably wouldn’t have even signed felton. Amar’e put us back on the map, and he brought the garden back to life. I don’t know if you’ve been to any games in the past year, but I haven’t seen the Garden this excited (Granted, I’m 18 and wasn’t going to games in the 90’s). He took a leap of faith (even though it was in his best financial interest) and seemed more than eager to take on the challenge of playing in NY from day 1, and that’s something I, along with the rest of the fanbase truly admired.

    53. twoseam2007

      twoseam2007: Worst season? He was the front runner for the MVP before the trade. Arguably his BEST SEASON. And even though he has only been here for one season, loyalty is still a factor. If it weren’t for him, we wouldn’t have melo. Hell, we probably wouldn’t have even signed felton. Amar’e put us back on the map, and he brought the garden back to life. I don’t know if you’ve been to any games in the past year, but I haven’t seen the Garden this excited (Granted, I’m 18 and wasn’t going to games in the 90?s). He took a leap of faith (even though it was in his best financial interest) and seemed more than eager to take on the challenge of playing in NY from day 1, and that’s something I, along with the rest of the fanbase truly admired.

      However, if the Magic are willing to do a straight up Dwight/Amar’e deal, I’d do it. Just think you’ve understated his value to this franchise.

    54. Z-man

      John Kenney: @Everyone thinking we could get Rondo: Rondo is not available for a player of lesser caliber. Is he available in a package for a better PG? Sure. Would they even consider- even for a millisecond- trading Rondo to us? No. And it’s not just the division rivals thing.. our guys aren’t good enough, much as i love them. P>

      How about offering Balkman straight up for Rondo? He was drafted higher, wasn’t he?

    55. Z-man

      I absolutely love Amare, was thrilled when we got him, and thought he had a great season last year; but it would be galactically stupid not to package him with lesser assets for 5 years of Dwight Howard. He’s younger, healthier and better. If ever there was a no-brainer, that would be it.

      Well, he is a lousy FT shooter…

    56. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

      Howard for Brook Lopez and 2 1st rounders? How can anyone even report that trade? If that’s “top news,” how about we offer Balkman and Jerome Jordan and a couple of 1sts for him, too?

    57. Jafa

      For all who are in love with Dwight Howard for Amare, Dwight is not a leader. Amare is. That counts for something. Melo is not a leader either. You would be pairing Melo and Dwight, two very talented players who are not leaders, and watch us lose in the 2nd round like the Hawks do every year. Unless you are guaranteed CP3, who is a strong leader, I say keep Amare.

    58. twoseam2007

      Unless they were to acquire an extended CP3, I don’t understand why the Celtics want to move Rondo

    59. Frank O.

      Z-man:
      I absolutely love Amare, was thrilled when we got him, and thought he had a great season last year; but it would be galactically stupid not to package him with lesser assets for 5 years of Dwight Howard. He’s younger, healthier and better.If ever there was a no-brainer, that would be it.

      Well, he is a lousy FT shooter…

      “Galactically stupid.”
      Couldn’t agree more, and ask your permission to use that phrase here when referencing certain lawmakers on capitol hill. :)

    60. Frank O.

      Jafa: I love Amare and love that he has revived the Knicks. But he is older, not as healthy, less dominant. Howard is the most dominating player in the game, IMHO.
      Amare, good as he is, isn’t.

    61. Z-man

      @70 Plagiarized it from “A Few Good Men”…

      @63 Dwight is a leader. He’s a leader in scoring, rebounds, blocked shots, PER, WS48, TS%, eFG%, FT attempts, DPOY votes, MVP votes, All-star votes. He’s also a leader in games played, missing only 11 games in 7 years and never playing less that 78 games in any season thus far. PS: he turns 26 years old next week.

    62. twoseam2007

      Frank O.:
      Amare isn’t even the best power forward in the game.

      That’s like saying Kevin Durant isn’t the best SF in the game (LBJ). That shouldn’t detract from his greatness.

    63. MKinLA

      The more important point is that trading Amare would send an awful message to CP3 about the franchise’s loyalty to its players. It’s one thing to ask him to take a bit less money to play with his boys (and get a shot at the title). It’s another to ask him to take less to play for a franchise that just discarded his friend.

    64. Z-man

      MKinLA: The more important point is that trading Amare would send an awful message to CP3 about the franchise’s loyalty to its players. It’s one thing to ask him to take a bit less money to play with his boys (and get a shot at the title). It’s another to ask him to take less to play for a franchise that just discarded his friend.

      I guess we’d have to settle for Deron Williams…

    65. Frank O.

      twoseam2007: That’s like saying Kevin Durant isn’t the best SF in the game (LBJ). That shouldn’t detract from his greatness.

      I was juxtaposing Howard being what I believe is the most dominant player in the game with Amare, who I do not believe is even the most dominant power forward in the game. Not saying Amare isn’t a great player. Just saying there are better PFs, while even considering Lebron, I think Howard is about as unstoppable a player as any we have seen since Shaq was in his prime.

    66. Frank O.

      MKinLA:
      The more important point is that trading Amare would send an awful message to CP3 about the franchise’s loyalty to its players. It’s one thing to ask him to take a bit less money to play with his boys (and get a shot at the title). It’s another to ask him to take less to play for a franchise that just discarded his friend.

      Paul would rather play with Howard than with Amare, I have to believe, although I’m sure he would love playing with Amare too.
      He knows it is a business.
      But we were addressing whether one would make a trade that included Amare to get Howard. I would have to say yes, and that would make the Knicks that much more attractive to a guy like CP3, IMHO.

    67. Frank O.

      Mike Kurylo: His 4th best PER. Worst TS% since his second year (excluding 3 games in 2006). 2nd worst rebounds/min.

      Factually speaking not really arguable at all.

      And yet, he still was simply outstanding

    68. Frank

      Frank O.: And yet, he still was simply outstanding

      Well, for the first half of the season he was awesome. Then I have to believe he wore down. He was an ok help defender but an atrocious post and pick and roll defender. You figure these are skills he can work on. If he and Melo are serious about becoming two way players and not just paying lip service to defense then we might have a pretty good team even this year. Add CP3 to the mix next year and we might really have an offense that is good enough that an average defense would be good enough.

    69. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      Add CP3 to the mix next year and we might really have an offense that is good enough that an average defense would be good enough.

      CP3 should make it so that a below average defense would be good enough. Remember, the big knock on Amar’e even before he fell off the cliff after the trade was that his TS% nose dived without Nash there to set him up for great shots. Paul will serve that same role and I bet Amar’e’s TS% numbers go back to normal (i.e. awesome) levels.

    70. BigBlueAL

      I love Ric Bucher tonight on Sportscenter talking about Broussard’s article saying Chris Paul wants to play with the Clippers. Didnt once mention the Knicks. Then he says Dwight Howard will end up in Dallas.

    71. Frank

      Again a these espn guys dont know anything. They’re just getting paid to do what we’re all doing now. Someone should keep tabs on what each guy is saying and publish a scorecard. I’d be very surprised if the winner was any better than the players’ BRI percentage.

    72. Z-man

      Frank: Again a these espn guys dont know anything. They’re just getting paid to do what we’re all doing now.

      Mike, lockout’s over, where’s my check?

    73. BigBlueAL

      Tomorrow is the Knicks Hollinger player profiles, who from this site participated in the Knicks 5-on-5 article??

    74. ess-dog

      Assuming we’re stuck with Melo/Amare, I’m not sure the big 3 model is feasible for us.
      There was a lot of talk last year about how the Melo deal would hamstring the organization and now, it truly looks like it will. Not that Amare’s deal isn’t a bit inflated as well, but he broke the ice here and turned the Knicks around.
      I’m not against Melo per se, just that contract. It’s going to keep us from ever having a full roster.
      I love the idea of CP3 as much as the next guy, but even with him, I really don’t think we’re going anywhere without a top notch post defender/rebounder. What team has won a championship without one? The Jordan Bulls maybe? Perhaps the Heat will do it this year?
      CP3 would make the offense even better and provide great perimeter D, but a team (without MJ or maybe LBJ) really needs a great post defender (Bynum) and can get by with a wily pg (Fisher.)
      An Amare for Howard trade would be great, but the Magic won’t do that. Amare’s window is closing and Melo has played a lot of years in this league. A smart contract to Chandler or even Oden or DeAndre Jordan could conceivably be the way to go. Especially if you can get Nash in 2012. Otherwise, waiting for Howard in 2012 makes more sense, but I doubt he comes to a team w/o a top flight point guard. Also, I just don’t know if NYC is interesting to him. He seems like an LA guy to me.
      Don’t get me wrong – a CP3/Melo/Amare team would be exciting but ultimately, too thin to win a championship.

    75. twoseam2007

      BigBlueAL:
      I love Ric Bucher tonight on Sportscenter talking about Broussard’s article saying Chris Paul wants to play with the Clippers.Didnt once mention the Knicks.Then he says Dwight Howard will end up in Dallas.

      Rich Bucher is probably the worst journalist on that staff at ESPN, i don’t know if you caught the two part Bill Simmons B.S. Report, but he was so wrong when talking about the lockout and everything NBA. HE EVEN SAID WESTBROOK WAS BETTER THAN DURANT!!! THAT IS ASININE!!!!

    76. BigBlueAL

      Just read the ESPN article about Chandler saying he probably wont re-sign in Dallas because according to the article the Mavs dont want to give him a big contract because they want to have enough cap room next off-season to sign one of the big 3 FA’s.

    77. twoseam2007

      Hey everyone, as Knick fans, we support each other as we do our team. A newsite has just gone up called http://nickjohnsonsmustache.dinstudio.com/ . This site touches on all things sports, with a concentration with New York teams of course. In fact two new interesting columns have recently gone up concerning CP3 going to NY and D12 going to NJ (potentially). Please check out the site, I along with the staff would really appreciate it We are also on twitter, @njmustache

    78. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

      Jafa,

      The whole bit about “leadership” is nonsense. Howard’s a hyper-efficient beast of a player, by far the best center in the game. Leadership doesn’t make bad players good. Being surrounded by good players makes bad players less bad.

      Love,
      THCJ

    79. art vandelay

      This is something interesting I didn’t realize they could do (from Hahn):

      The Knicks’ strategy is to preserve as much cap space as possible for next season, when Paul, Deron Williams and Dwight Howard may be available, so it is likely the Knicks could offer three years of the mid-level (worth $5M) and guarantee only the first year. That would allow them to clear the salary in 2012-13 if they need the room.

    80. citizen

      shouldn’t we also bring taxes into the money discussion? Isn’t the income/property tax rate in the tri-state area one of the highest in the country?

    81. ess-dog

      That would make sense for a player like Caron Butler although that contract basically states that you are a back up plan. Someone will likely take guaranteed money from another team first.

    82. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      While I like the ability to offer non-guaranteed contracts, I don’t know why players would ever accept them. At the very least, Caron Butler is a nice trade asset.

    83. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      I am shocked that Dallas is seriously considering not re-signing Chandler. Unless they have some really good intel that Dwight Howard wants to play for them, they are severely weakening their team. Do they not get what made them good this past year?

    84. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

      My latest Sports Legends Revealed piece is up at the LA Times – it is about an interesting quote that Sarah Palin attributed to basketball coaching legend John Wooden. You can read it here.

    85. Frank

      does it bother anyone but me that our three “leaders” are already not on the same page? Amare wants everyone to come to Florida. Melo says he wants to stay in NYC. Billups is still in Denver. Shouldn’t these guys (or at least Amare and Melo) talk to each other on the phone and speak with a united voice?

      On another note, we’re all assuming that we’re going to keep cap space for 2012 and runs at CP3/D-Will/DH12. But what if we’re not? What if we’re really looking to sign guys like Caron Butler, Grant Hill, etc.? Who would you guys want?

      I personally would greatly prefer Grant Hill – a guy who brings leadership, defense, 39% from 3 last year, great ballhandler, and who already knows the system. Sure he’s 50, but maybe he’d even take a 1 year deal to make a run at a deep playoff run, which PHX is clearly not going to make. Even if we need to give him, say 4M for 2 years, which would take our cap space in 2012 to ~9M, we could still make a run at a 2nd tier 2012 free agent (Javale McGee, Omer Asik, etc. and maybe ask Nash to come on the cheap or for part/all of the “room” exception or MLE.

    86. Z

      D. Jordan is a garbage man with no offensive game outside of 3 feet. He has a usage rate roughly equivalent to Walt Disney’s pulse rate.

      This isn’t bad, and is probably just the thing that the team needs; BUT, D’Antoni wouldn’t play him. So make sure you fire D’Antoni before pursuing D’andre.

      art vandelay:
      I really would like them to bring this intro music back for the upcoming season:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13r6ofuoxdk

      Or they could go back to c. 1987 and play “We Are New York, And We Love Basketball”. (When Chris Paul hears that catchy little ditty how could he NOT pay $15 million to come here?!)

    87. Frank O.

      “does it bother anyone but me that our three “leaders” are already not on the same page? Amare wants everyone to come to Florida. Melo says he wants to stay in NYC. Billups is still in Denver. Shouldn’t these guys (or at least Amare and Melo) talk to each other on the phone and speak with a united voice?”

      Frank: yes. it bothers me. Billups was brought in in part because it was believed that he had the stature to rein in two max players with max egos. At this point, it would appear he hasn’t been able to assert himself. His injuries last year probably affected this dynamic. It will be interesting to see who the alfa is. Amare seemed content to defer to Melo last year, but I don’t see Melo as a team leader type. He seems too much for himself. Amare displayed leadership early on, but when the new guys came aboard he backed off.
      I think it is yet to be determined who will lead this group. And so long as all this CP3 chatter goes on, Billups likely will feel dissed. Something to watch.

    88. ess-dog

      The more you read about the Paul situation, the more it really does seem like Melo 2.0 except the Hornets don’t have the leverage that Denver did.
      Of course, Paul would prefer the extension and the NOH would prefer something in return.
      That’s where Donnie, er, Grunnie will have to get creative.
      Golden State (if they come up empty in free agency) might take Okafor and Shumpert and parts to bring Monta to NO. So something like Monta, Fields and a 1st (for TD) might be a start. That’s pretty much all we have.
      I hope we’re also looking for Mosgov 2.0 this year: a one year, team option deal that we could also use in a trade.

    89. d-mar

      If CP3 truly wants to only play for the Knicks next season, couldn’t he approach NO management and say so definitively. Then they would be highly motivated to deal with the Knicks and pretty much have to take whatever trade deal we offer. And Paul doesn’t have to sacrifice the $$ he would lose in free agency. Does that make sense or am I missing something?

    90. art vandelay

      Let´s all be real: Billups came here reluctantly…he was perfectly content completing his career in Denver, where he grew up and current lives, then working perhaps in their front office one day. Reports were that had he been traded with Melo to Jersey, that he might not report to play with them. I am sure at the time of the trade that they worked out a wink-wink deal with Dolan/Walsh whereby his option would be picked up this year. And now he knows he is trade fodder for a potential Cp3 or other trade…so his stint will likely be a short one either way.

      All of the aforementioned does exactly lend itself to his being a major team leader and taking the time and effort to rein in two superstars with whom he may hardly play.

    91. Frank

      @114 – totally agree that Billups is not that emotionally invested in the NYK – and other than the $14M he’s getting paid this year, I don’t really blame him. I am not totally sold that Amare and Melo really like each other that much. To be honest, Amare seems a little bit of an outsider in the new power structure of NBA players. Remember last year when the big FAs (Bosh/Wade/LBJ) all got together to discuss and Amare had to ask to be included (and he wasn’t)? Now all you see is LBJ, Wade, Carmelo, and CP3 hanging out all summer – Amare nowhere to be seen. Very much seems like there are the CAA / Worldwide Wes guys and everyone else.

    92. Frank

      yowza- that CP3 trade request came as I was writing #117. this CAA conspiracy is definitely for reals.

    93. Jafa

      Guys,

      Criticize me all you want about leadership, but I do think it is important. I know this is an advanced metrics site and by all advanced metrics Howard crushes Amare. But I don’t believe putting together the most talented team, even by advanced metrics, automatically wins you a title. You need one of those star players you have to be a strong leader, pushing his teammates to new heights and providing leadership in bad times.

      What happens when the team losses in an embarrassing way? When it happened to us last season against Minnesota (that game where Love had a 31-31 game) Amare said “It’s definitely tough, but this just goes on my shoulders. I take this loss on me. I got in foul trouble. Once I got in foul trouble, they took advantage of that.” He took responsibility for the loss and the situation (a 4 game losing skid at the time), covering for his teammates from a PR standpoint, and the team turned it around after that(went 5-2 after that).

      What did Howard do? When his team was down 1-3 against ATL in the first round, he was busy going at it with a belligerent fan in the crowd. The idiot in the crowd said “You’re the biggest whiner in the league” to which Howard responded “You wanna come out here and play me? I’m averaging 33 points a game. Just keep drinking your beer.” What? Your more interested comparing penis sizes with a fan in the crowd that getting your team going to overcome a deficit? I’m averaging 33 points a game? Way to lead.

      I’m not opposed to Howard. I’m opposed to a Howard/Melo pairing without a strong leader added to the team, because both, while very talented, are not leaders.

    94. Frank

      the end game is coming clear. CP3 requests and receives a trade to NYK before Jan 1. After 6 months (ie. before 7/1/12 when the new league years starts and he officially has to opt-out of his contract), he becomes eligible for full Bird rights contract.

      OR — CP3 opts IN to the last year of his contract (17.7M I think), then signs an extension next year when he is able to get a full bird contract. There is nothing that says CP3 HAS to opt out, although that is taking a serious chance with his health.

    95. Garson

      in order for us to get Paul via trade , he not only has to declare that he wants to be traded to knicks however that he will ONLY sign an extension with NY.

      Once he says another team, hes off the board as we have the least trade friendly assets.

      Melo unfortunatly didnt do this and cost us all of our assets. If he has only said publicly that i am not signing with Nets,we would have avoided trading our whole farm system.

    96. d-mar

      @121 in defense of Melo, he was trying to avoid free agency at all costs because of the uncertainty with the CBA, which most people at the time said made sense. So he had to keep the Nets option alive to avoid that possibility.

    97. Garson

      @122 One of the most selfish acts he could have done. Putting him ahead of the teams ability to build a contender. Putting my anti Lebron feelings aside, the man took less to make his team better. Melo would never do that.

    98. njasdjdh

      I wish there was a website referencing Nick Johnson’s mustache which I could go to for sports discussion. Oh well.

    99. Frank

      d-mar:
      @121 in defense of Melo, he was trying to avoid free agency at all costs because of the uncertainty with the CBA, which most people at the time said made sense. So he had to keep the Nets option alive to avoid that possibility.

      totally agree. all Melo really had to do was trust that DEN was look out for its own best interests – there is NO WAY they would have let him walk for nothing if the Knicks just made a reasonable offer (ie. without all the draft picks). But his unwillingness to go all-in on the Knicks made it so the Knicks had to go all-in on him. I understand it from a business standpoint, but as a fan, I wish he had had a little more foresight or altruism or something.

    100. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

      Okay, Jafa. I’m not saying leadership doesn’t matter, but Howard is so much better (and younger) than Amar’e, there’s no comparison. 30 out of 30 teams take him over Amar’e because he’s a monster.

      I think he gets the “no leadership” rap because of his rift with Stan Van Gundy, who seems to be the anti-Phil Jackson (who is most certainly the greatest coach in NBA history, and it’s not just because of the X/O game). I remember Howard getting some shit over his criticism of Van Gundy’s “Yell at Players until They Change” coaching style, which likely does not work with millionaire athletes who live a lifestyle of hedonism and celebrity 24/7.

      Howard probably should have taken the high road, but he’s a human being. And I don’t know if you’ve ever been in a collaborative situation where you’re carrying the workload and receiving the most pointed criticism of all. It doesn’t feel good in a low-stakes situation, and it requires a great deal of concentration and self-discipline to do it in a high stakes situation.

      But this doesn’t really matter at all. Chris Paul is going to be a Knick, and very, very soon. I’m going to miss Landry, but with Paul, this may be a 60 win team.

    101. Frank

      meanwhile – Mike/Brian/John/Robert and the rest of the moderators – how much advertising of other sites do you guys allow on this site? I understand Brian occasionally linking to his LA times gig – at least he’s one of the moderators and is very active here (not to mention his stories are quite good). But klownboy and twoseam showed up here 10 minutes ago and every 5th post is an attempt by them to push traffic to their own site.

    102. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

      Twoseam,

      Keep practicing. Your writing is not good for a number of reasons. It lacks creativity (see: Robert Silverman), clarity and analysis (see: Mike K.), and all of the other qualities that make the rest of this site’s staff so wonderful to read.

      I’m not saying you should stop writing, but I’d give yourself several years of practice before you start peddling your e-warez on respected sports blogs. Either that or your stay here is going to be shorter than Kris Humphrey’s inside Kim K.’s birth canal. Or Magic Johnson’s comeback tour. Or Isiah Thomas’s tenure as the Knicks’ “consultant.” You see what I’m getting at, here.

    103. twoseam2007

      The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman:
      Twoseam,

      Keep practicing. Your writing is not good for a number of reasons. It lacks creativity (see: Robert Silverman), clarity and analysis (see: Mike K.), and all of the other qualities that make the rest of this site’s staff so wonderful to read.

      I’m not saying you should stop writing, but I’d give yourself several years of practice before you start peddling your e-warez on respected sports blogs. Either that or your stay here is going to be shorter than Kris Humphrey’s inside Kim K.’s birth canal. Or Magic Johnson’s comeback tour. Or Isiah Thomas’s tenure as the Knicks’ “consultant.” You see what I’m getting at, here.

      A little harsh, but thanks for checking it out

    104. Will the Thrill

      If CP3 is indeed traded here before the season starts, who are we still likely to have on the team? (Besides the trio of stars)

      It is still going to be really tough competing against teams with big front lines that can rebound the ball.

    105. BigBlueAL

      Everyone is looking at how the Knicks can trade for Paul in a straight trade with NO, Im thinking Billups to a 3rd team is the key. Im sure there are some teams willing to give up some decent (not great) assets for Billups which would make Knicks package to NO a bit better.

    106. Scorpio Dragon

      I agree with that, time to look of a 3rd team to deal with, Minnesota maybe?

      BigBlueAL: Everyone is looking at how the Knicks can trade for Paul in a straight trade with NO, Im thinking Billups to a 3rd team is the key. Im sure there are some teams willing to give up some decent (not great) assets for Billups which would make Knicks package to NO a bit better.

    107. Z

      Scorpio Dragon:
      I agree with that, time to look of a 3rd team to deal with, Minnesota maybe?

      The Lakers would have to send Odom away, which Buss may not mind because it saves him a lot of tax money. But NOLA probably doesn’t have much use for Odom. Do we? I know some of the writers here like him, but I find his game as weak as his personality.

      Maybe if the Warriors are looking to dump Monta Ellis to save money and open the backcourt up to Steph Curry a simple Paul to NY, Billups to GS, and Ellis, Fields, and Douglas to NO could happen.

      Or it could get more complicated:

      Knicks get: Paul and Okafor
      Hornets get: Ellis and David Lee
      Warriors get: Balkman, Turiaf and Amar’e
      (Knicks keep Billups’ expiring to trade before the deadline)

    108. twoseam2007

      I think it’s essentially going to be a two way trade.

      Knicks – Paul

      NO – Billups
      – Fields
      – Jerome Jordan
      – Douglas
      – Shumpert
      – 3 Million dollars

      We’re going to end up exhausting every single one of our tradeable pieces in this deal, but the Knicks shouldn’t have a problem finding pieces to join the future big 3 in New York, with the mini midlevel at their exposure (almost 100% positive bi annual didn’t make it through the CBA as well), and the knicks willingness to buy picks in the draft

    109. twoseam2007

      Will the Thrill:
      If CP3 is indeed traded here before the season starts, who are we still likely to have on the team? (Besides the trio of stars)

      It is still going to be really tough competing against teams with big front lines that can rebound the ball.

      Although we really lack rebounding from the 5, Melo and STAT are two of best rebounding forwards in the league

    110. Will the Thrill

      STAT is not even close to being one of the best rebounding forwards in the league. He is a below average/average rebounder for his position

    111. Ben R

      Trading Fields, Douglas, Shumpert, Jordan and Billups is a pretty weak package for a player like Paul. That is signifigantly worse than what we traded for a less talented Melo.

      I think if we want Paul it will take trading Amare. Otherwise someone else in an attractive destination like LA or Dallas will put together a better offer and get Paul. Paul wants to come to NY but ultimately I think he wants to be on a winner and the Clippers or the Thunder or any team with Howard offer a better chance of winning than a totally stripped Knicks team.

    112. rooster_douglas

      @139 and @144

      As Kanye would say, that sh*t cray (read: crazy).

      First, there is absolutely no way we are trading Amare for anyone outside of Dwight Howard, and the Knicks brass would have to think long and hard about even that given Amar’e’s (that was fun) role in our recent resurgence. There is absolutely no need to (nor way we will) trade Amare for Paul and even if we did, how much better would we be? In the immediate aftermath of such a trade, we would be far, far worse, with absolutely zero talent at the 4 or 5. In the long run, it’s a toss up, probably favoring acquiring cp3 but not definitely.

      Second, this situation has few similarities with Melo’s, a point which has been covered far and wide, including extensively here, and can be summarized in a sentence: Unlike Melo, there is no multi-million dollar incentive for paul to get himself traded to the knicks rather than simply sign as a FA and, provided Paul wants to come to NY as much as it seems, we have all of the leverage and are under no obligation to offer new orleans full market value, or even anything close. Take our scraps (which would should match or exceed any offers the hornets get from teams trading for paul without the guarnatee he will sign an extension) or watch him leave for nothing a few months later.

      Third, @144, the Clippers offer CP3 a better chance at winning then a team with Amare, Melo, and Cp3 would? Really? Are we talking about the same Clippers? Like the ones Donald Sterling, the worst owner in sports, owns? The racist who demeans his own players and who has 1 winning season in the last 19? The same Clippers who have a grand total of one playoff series win in their entire existence (since 1984) and who had only 32 wins last year? We’re talking about the same Clippers who play in the West, where you need 46-50 wins just to get into the playoffs and 53-56 to get a single home playoff series, right?

    113. twoseam2007

      Ben R:
      Trading Fields, Douglas, Shumpert, Jordan and Billups is a pretty weak package for a player like Paul. That is signifigantly worse than what we traded for a less talented Melo.

      I think if we want Paul it will take trading Amare. Otherwise someone else in an attractive destination like LA or Dallas will put together a better offer and get Paul. Paul wants to come to NY but ultimately I think he wants to be on a winner and the Clippers or the Thunder or any team with Howard offer a better chance of winning than a totally stripped Knicks team.

      That’s what people initially said about our package for Carmelo, (although this package seems truly worse than the last). Also, now that the CBA no longer calls for salaries to match in trades, the Knicks could send Billups to another playoff team looking for point guard and leadership upgrade for an extra asset in a 3 team trade. As for trading Amar’e, he is the heart and soul of this team. Yes, his injury history is a concern, but so is Paul’s.

    114. JK47

      Let’s say this trade happens, and that we move pretty much every asset we have for Chris Paul. Do we still get to use the MLE? Perhaps Caron Butler would come for the MLE to give us some wing depth. Who might come here for the veteran’s minimum?

    115. Spree8nyk8

      JK47:
      Let’s say this trade happens, and that we move pretty much every asset we have for Chris Paul. Do we still get to use the MLE? Perhaps Caron Butler would come for the MLE to give us some wing depth.Who might come here for the veteran’s minimum?

      I doubt anything in this situation is going to happen fast, this unfortunately is gonna be a drawn out saga like last year :(

    116. Z-man

      Spree8nyk8: I doubt anything in this situation is going to happen fast, this unfortunately is gonna be a drawn out saga like last year :(

      Thank goodness, I sure hope so, let’s see the pieces play before we make a judgment…especially Shump!

    117. Z-man

      Seriously, if Shump turns out to be something akin to the next Gary Payton or Russell Westbrook, and he certainly has the physical skills to be like either of those guys, then whatever we gain out of including him and his rookie contract for Paul and his max deal would make us rue rushing into a trade. I hope we get to see the young guys play for at least 20 or so games before any trade is made.

    118. art vandelay

      No way the NBA can get away with trading Cp3 to the Knicks for scraps. My best guess is Knicks land Paul as FA, or at the earliest at trade deadline when New Orleans realizes they have no other recourse but to take the Knicks’ paltry offer, assuming Cp3 remains steadfast in not wanting to commit to any team other than NYK. Between now and then about one million stories will come out like yesterday’s regarding Rondo that “x” team is offering “x+y+z” players to New Orleans and they are on the verge of landing him, like New Jersey was with Melo reportedly last year….tons of subterfuge and New Orleans attempting to drive his price up, lots of agenda-driven reporting…in the end, I think we will wind up with him when all is said and done, if he really wants to come here and give up some $ to do so as it appears he does.

    119. bobneptune

      The knicks don’t remotely have anything of interest to the hornets. They don’t even have a draft choice til 2016. The only way to trade for Paul is to involve a team over the cap that is looking to get way under the cap for 12-13 and beyond. San Antonio is that team at the deadline.

      The Spurs are done as a top team. They cannot beat DAL, LA, OKC, MEM and probably PORT . They are currently @ 72 M, but with Duncan coming off the books and Jefferson sure to be renounced at some point, Ginobili has one more year and only Parker is signed long term. After they sell their seats for the year, they move Ginobili to a contender that needs an ice water player in the playoffs for a pick plus an expiring, move Parker in a 3 way with NO and NY with Billups expiring going to SA with the knicks 2016 choice , CP3 to the knicks with NO’s #1 to SA.

      SA now has a < 10m payroll for 2012 and can tank for a year or 2 to get a top choice or 2 in the draft (they've done it before) and then have money to spend on FA's .

      Paul can then not opt out and when his contract expires after 2012 with the knicks and then with his Bird rights intact , get the max without the Knicks having to give away Shumpert, et, al.

      Duncan can either retire or chase another ring or 2 going forward playing 20 mins/game for the MLE for either the Heat or the Knicks :-)

      And everybody is happy. NO cannot possibly do better than a 29 yr old Parker signed for 4 years at a reasonable 12.5M/yr, the Knicks get their guy without giving away their few assets not named Melo and Stat, CP3 gets his money and the Knicks and SA gets to break it down quickly and can build another long term run by tanking a year or 2.

      Then if Orlando doesn't think they can do better than Amar'e for Howard….. who am I to argue…..

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