All excellent points. I’m in no way suggesting that advanced stats aren’t valuable or important. Adherents have used them to win championships, so clearly they’re valuable and important. And as you pointed out in 164, our franchise would’ve benefited had it made more moves according based on something other than “in the now.” I’m simply arguing that a blind, feverish worship of them — such that you actually believe there will one day be the “one stat” that encompasses everything about a player that we value — can both seriously inhibit your enjoyment of the game and cloud your judgment.

With respect to WP/48 in particular, proponents still admit that the cumulative / composite ends up being an average of 2.5 games off the mark anyway . All I’d suggest — and if I knew how to prove this out, I’d… probably not do it anyway — is that that 2.5 games difference, however the error’s parsed out between the players, might be magnified significantly depending on a change in teams, system, etc.

But you’re right: Stats are getting undoubtedly better at capturing the past and present, and at anticipating which context — and which players — compliment certain players better than others. All I’m saying is there’s still room for error, and sometimes it’s OK to close the stat deficit between what you believe and what you see, with a little luck, blind faith, and chance.

I think humanity will destroy everything and cannibalize itself before we find the “singularity” in anything. And if we see it on the grand scale, I’m not sure basketball will really “matter.” Get it? Matter?

Boy that was dark, huh!? See kids, this is what happens when you don’t make it through calculus!

Oh right. I forgot we traded Camby because he wasn’t durable. Who wouldn’t rather have “Steel Knees” McDyess?

(yup. Still bitter, after all these years…)

I still remember trying to talk myself into that trade. By the way, if the stats movement then was where it is now, the Knicks never would have made that deal. So go stats! Camby and Nene for a returning from injury McDyess. Insane.

Jafa: TS% and AST% tell a different story, will the Paul behind Magic and Stockton in TS% and behind Stockton in AST%. However, I am very impressed by Paul’s TOV%.

Those are individual categories, not cumulative measures.

My point was never that Chris Paul is the best PG of all time… but that one can make that argument for a 6 year period. If you don’t think one can make that argument, I don’t know what to tell you. The guy is ridiculously good.

Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin): Camby was hurt that first year.

Oh right. I forgot we traded Camby because he wasn’t durable. Who wouldn’t rather have “Steel Knees” McDyess?

(yup. Still bitter, after all these years…)

As many have pointed out, a change in personnel or system can affect one’s WS/48 in either direction. As such, many believe Melo can / will improve his WS/48 – and his overall efficiency – under D’Antoni. He made some decent strides in at least one of those respects at the end of last season. Look at Ron Harper: His WS/48 shot up dramatically after Jordan’s return to the Bulls in ’95, while his per game stats plummeted. Why? I think we know the reason. Why is this important? Because the game’s “best players” – determining calculus aside for a moment – can skew the results. Yes, I realize that’s just one example. But it’s an instructive one: Perhaps more than any other sport, how “productive” you are depends mightily with whom you are playing. And it’s not always the case that throwing together dudes with high WP/48 works out, historically.

I think it mostly evens out in the end. Bosh and Wade, for instance, both saw reductions in their WS/48 last season even though they were playing for a much better team. I think it is fairer to say that players are affected by their roles. If you play a player in a role he is not accustomed to, he is not going to do well. If you play him in a role he is perfect for, he will flourish. To wit, Ron Harper as scorer – not so good. Ron Harper as complimentary guard? Good. I think the clear case is whenever you look at stats, to put them into the context of what happened that season. That’s why not even the most stat-conscious GM or whatever is going to say “oh, he has a better WS/48 then clearly he is a better player.”

A good example would be Amar’e. Clearly, the guy has been living off of Steve Nash’s great passes for years. I mean, don’t get me wrong, Amar’e made Nash look good by being one of the best low post finishers in the game (the best?), but we saw that once Amar’e stopped having Nash to give him the ball, his TS% dropped. And when he stopped even having Raymond Felton getting him the ball and only had a backup point guard (who also loved to shoot himself) getting him the ball, his TS% dropped even further.

So we don’t look at that and say “Amar’e's WS/48 were his worst in years, clearly, Amar’e has lost a ton of skill this year.” We instead say, “So long as he is playing with point guards who don’t get him the ball where he is one of the best finishers in the NBA, his TS% is going to be hurt a lot and therefore his WS/48 will be low.” If he was paired with Chris Paul, suddenly his TS% would go up and so would his WS/48. He wouldn’t suddenly get better, his circumstances changed.

But clearly, the stats here are very important. They tell us that Amar’e needs to get the ball in certain locations to fully utilize his amazing abilities. They tell us how well that is being achieved, and how the Knicks need to adjust this coming season to get the most out of their complement of players.

Huh? Nene and Camby arrived in Denver together (as we bruised and battered Knick fans all know).

Camby was hurt that first year.

The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman: Seriously, is this board full of petulant 8-year-olds? Or am I the only one operating on an 11-year-old’s mathematical comprehension level? What gives, internet? What gives?

Geez,
Remind me never to debate with you again. I’m a petulant 8 year old because I think Melo is a difference maker on the court? Yes, I see that it was more than him. Yes, I want to learn what it was, if not only him, but, no, I don’t think Camby, Miller and “efficient player X” would have made as much difference. Again, I said it, if he’s not worth the price paid, we’ll see it, and I’ll admit it, but I haven’t been convinced of that, as you apparently have. My point is not so unreasonable.

The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman: One all-inclusive stat is the only way to get closer to truth.

I found it. It’s called “CHIPS.”

As many have pointed out, a change in personnel or system can affect one’s WS/48 in either direction. As such, many believe Melo can / will improve his WS/48 – and his overall efficiency – under D’Antoni. He made some decent strides in at least one of those respects at the end of last season. Look at Ron Harper: His WS/48 shot up dramatically after Jordan’s return to the Bulls in ’95, while his per game stats plummeted. Why? I think we know the reason. Why is this important? Because the game’s “best players” – determining calculus aside for a moment – can skew the results. Yes, I realize that’s just one example. But it’s an instructive one: Perhaps more than any other sport, how “productive” you are depends mightily with whom you are playing. And it’s not always the case that throwing together dudes with high WP/48 works out, historically.

Many of us have a knee-jerk negative reaction to the notion of Carmelo Anthony being “between the 25th and 30th best player in the league” not just because of the eye test – although that’s a part of it – but also simply because we’re fans. Past personnel transgressions be damned, we always hope that the next move might turn it around.

As valuable as advanced stats are, you have to leave a little room to chance, circumstance, context, and chaos, if only to render the picture a little more human. It’s part of what makes basketball unique. If I wanted math and nothing else to determine the outcome of NBA games, I’d spend my winter playing 2K12. If I want a beautiful game that is at least as much art as science, I’ll watch the real thing. And if we end up winning a title with Melo and Stat, I hope we applaud louder than the numbers do.