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Thursday, July 31, 2014

Chris Paul’s Agent Reportedly Requests Trade to the Knicks

Well, this is pretty major news.

According to reports from league sources to Yahoo! Sports, Chris Paul’s agent, Leon Rose, has informed New Orleans General Manager Dell Demps that Paul will not sign a contract extension with the Hornets and requests to be traded to the New York Knicks. Demps reportedly wants to talk to Paul in person (once teams and players are allowed to interact again) to hear it from his star player himself.

If this is true, then obviously this is a mighty big deal, as the Knicks’ only chance of getting Paul this year was under circumstances like this, with Paul declaratively stating that he will not sign with the Hornets or with any other team but the Knicks. It remains to be seen how steadfast Paul is in his desire to be a Knick, but regardless, this is exactly the sort of news Knicks fans want to hear.

I await the inevitably of this somehow being spun as “Chris Paul to the Clippers?”

165 comments on “Chris Paul’s Agent Reportedly Requests Trade to the Knicks

  1. mikeplugh

    I refer you to these two comments I left recently about Paul and the new “Superfriends” power moves before I say anything:

    http://KnickerBlogger.Net/perhaps-youve-heard-of-this-chris-paul-fellow/#comment-347415

    http://KnickerBlogger.Net/perhaps-youve-heard-of-this-chris-paul-fellow/#comment-347418

    This is all a manifestation of years of star player dissatisfaction with their lack of control in comparison to their actual value to the league. Star players aren’t quite rich enough to be majority owners, but they are the A#1 reason the owners can get rich from their basketball endeavors. Isiah knew this when he was a player. Chris Webber knew it at Michigan and at Golden State. Webber and Howard executed a mini-power move by getting together in Washington. LeBron and company are taking it to the next level, and the Melo power move last year is the blueprint for Paul this year. There’s an interesting take now at SI about how Paul can get his money and have NY too.

    http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2011/12/01/loophole-could-get-chris-paul-to-n-y/

    This is just the beginning of a looooooong season of Chris Paul drama in NY. He’ll figure out how to be here. It’s what he wants and Leon Rose will make it *very* painful for New Orleans if they don’t submit. (The big kink is that the league owns NO and Stern may play spiteful on this one.)

  2. max fisher-cohen

    The question now is which is better:

    Billups, Fields, Douglas, Jerome Jordan, Shumpert, a 2018 (!!) first rounder

    or

    Whatever teams will offer to rent Paul for a year.

    You have to figure the rental price goes down the longer New Orleans waits. I still think someone will offer more than what the knicks can just for a rental and on the chance that Paul might change his mind. New Jersey, after all, gave up a ton for what could be a season and change of Deron Williams.

    Now, Williams never said he wouldn’t re-sign – he never had the chance – but the Nets had to know there was a good chance he wouldn’t.

  3. Spree8nyk8

    Just to be clear, williams did NOT say he won’t resign, he said he won’t extend. They have changed the extension rules to where now players lose money by extending. You will see more free agents now go into free agency with no intention of leaving. If chris paul is traded to NY it is very possible he will not extend prior to coming and the knicks. He can then get a five year birds rights contract of 100m.

    I’m not saying Williams will return to the nets, I’m saying that him not extending does not mean he is leaving.

  4. BIG STAT

    I want CP…I do, but I’m not exactly sure the Knicks front office knows where they are going with this. I suppose most (or all) of the guys they only want to give one year deals to are not guys who they’d really regret not having got…but they don’t have room to offer max to CP, Deron, or Dwight. That means I don’t see Deron or Dwight ending up here, so they must be really, really confident they’l end up with Paul. If they don’t get him then they just waste a year of constructing a contender’s roster with Melo and Amare still in there prime years

  5. twoseam2007

    max fisher-cohen:
    The question now is which is better:

    Billups, Fields, Douglas, Jerome Jordan, Shumpert, a 2018 (!!) first rounder

    or

    Whatever teams will offer to rent Paul for a year.

    You have to figure the rental price goes down the longer New Orleans waits. I still think someone will offer more than what the knicks can just for a rental and on the chance that Paul might change his mind. New Jersey, after all, gave up a ton for what could be a season and change of Deron Williams.

    Now, Williams never said he wouldn’t re-sign – he never had the chance – but the Nets had to know there was a good chance he wouldn’t.

    Actually, he has told the nets (or at least his agent has) that he won’t sign an in season extension with the nets and will head to free agency upon the season’s termination.

  6. Spree8nyk8

    dgatorr:
    IMO, chris paul makes me sick the way he has his temper tantrums and acts like hes the owner, coach and ref all in one ! best thing he can do is shut the hell up and do what hes best at and thats play ball ! if he wants to be one of the big boys, act like one ! not some whiny a$$ed spoiled punk.

    U mad?

  7. Spree8nyk8

    BIG STAT:
    I want CP…I do, but I’m not exactly sure the Knicks front office knows where they are going with this.I suppose most (or all) of the guys they only want to give one year deals to are not guys who they’d really regret not having got…but they don’t have room to offer max to CP, Deron, or Dwight.That means I don’t see Deron or Dwight ending up here, so they must be really, really confident they’l end up with Paul.If they don’t get him then they just waste a year of constructing a contender’s roster with Melo and Amare still in there prime years

    I mean not really considering this year they really don’t have any flexibility as it is, the best they could do this year would be a full exception player, that’s really about it.

  8. Robert Silverman

    For all the new folks, commenting for the sole purpose of linking to your own site isn’t what we do here.

  9. Frank

    Can’t believe Chris Sheridan used to actually be a Knicks beat reporter. He just wrote a piece on Shawne Williams and how he is a shoe-in to be the starting 2 guard for the Knicks in place of Fields, and how other teams should know he’s a poor-man’s Jamal Crawford. Does he know anything about the team he used to cover?

  10. Spree8nyk8

    Frank:
    Can’t believe Chris Sheridan used to actually be a Knicks beat reporter. He just wrote a piece on Shawne Williams and how he is a shoe-in to be the starting 2 guard for the Knicks in place of Fields, and how other teams should know he’s a poor-man’s Jamal Crawford.Does he know anything about the team he used to cover?

    First off he didn’t say shoe in, he said the chances were better than good. And by that I’m sure he means that extra E could replace the Landry Fields that was lost after the Melo trade, if the original version returns (which it hopefully will) then he won’t.

  11. twoseam2007

    There is no way they let shawne williams start over Landry Fields, especially if they are trying to Maximize Landry’s trade value in any CP3 deal.

  12. daJudge

    If the report is true, two possibilities then:
    CP3 soon to the Knicks via trade with the above mentioned mediocre players; or
    CP3 at end of the year as a FA either from NO or the other rental team.
    Does anyone really believe that Stern wants CP3 in New Orleans? I really don’t think that makes sense. Just gut, no proof.

  13. Thomas B.

    Frank:
    Can’t believe Chris Sheridan used to actually be a Knicks beat reporter. He just wrote a piece on Shawne Williams and how he is a shoe-in to be the starting 2 guard for the Knicks in place of Fields, and how other teams should know he’s a poor-man’s Jamal Crawford.Does he know anything about the team he used to cover?

    “A poor man’s Jamal Crawford” he actually wrote that? Wow.

  14. Robert Silverman

    If there is a trade, the Knicks need to get a third team involved. NO doesn’t need Billups and his expiring contract but a veteran contender (LA, San Antonio) would love to have Mista Big Shot.

    If they can trade Chauncey somewhere else for a prospect, a pick and an expiring, I think this deal goes down sooner rather than later.

  15. art vandelay

    Btw, picking up on the recent theme of Hollinger being a perennial Knick-hater, in his Knick profile today he called Melo one of the game’s “25 or so best players”…I don’t believe Melo is a top 10 player given some of his flaws, but around 25? I think that is a bit of a stretch.

  16. twoseam2007

    If the Knicks and Hornets seek a trade, could Atlanta be a player?

    ATL
    – Billups
    – Douglas

    NO
    – Jeff Teague
    – Landry Fields
    – Shumpert
    – Jerome Jordan
    – 1st rounder (via Atlanta)

    NYK
    – CP3
    – Marvin Williams (that would suck)

    I think that could work for everyone.

  17. Robert Silverman

    Spree8nyk8:
    When Wilson Chandler can return to the NBA in March is he still restricted to the Nuggets?

    Interesting question. I’d assume he’s still an RFA – meaning the Nugs can match any offer.

    speaking of which, Denver looks like they’re about to get gutted. Chandler’s AND J.R Smith are both stuck in China (and Smith’s got a serious knee injury). Kenyon Martin’s unrestricted (and way on the downside). Nene’s going to get serious $ from someone. Aaron Afflalo is supposedly a hot name. Who does that leave?

    Gallo, Lawson, Forbes, Mozgov, and Al Harrington as the starting five?

    Eep.

  18. taggart4800

    At first I was hesitant about offering the house for CP3 in a trade, mainly because I was burned by losing my favourite Knicks last season. However I have no doubt that say the CP3 trade happened next week, a decent number of quality players would want play with Stat, Melo and CP3.
    I am not suggesting players like tayshaun prince will take huge pay cuts but a roster filled out with kurt thomas, g hill and say the likes of even Michael Redd would be as competitive as the Heat and they very nearly won it all last year.
    Would love to see shumpert on the knicks floor for the playoffs but if it never happens I think I will be able to live with CP3.
    I think you have to put into context just how good he is
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/paulch01.html
    Poor statistical measure but only 2 years ago his PER was 30! 30! In the same season he had a usage percentage of 27.5 with a TS% .599.
    This is nothing new but my other thoughts are to our potential rotations. I really think we will see a two team system. Stat and Paul playing a deadly PnR and then Melo carrying the team with Iso scoring whilst others rest.

  19. cgreene

    art vandelay:
    Btw, picking up on the recent theme of Hollinger being a perennial Knick-hater, in his Knick profile today he called Melo one of the game’s “25 or so best players”…I don’t believe Melo is a top 10 player given some of his flaws, but around 25? I think that is a bit of a stretch.

    BTW, Carmelo is the 16th best player in the league according to HOLLINGER’S OWN RANKINGS SYSTEM THAT HE INVENTED. If that doesn’t suggest a bias against the Knicks then nothing does. I think that Hollinger was part of the Knicks press corps if I recall writing for the New York Observer in the draconian press days and worst Knicks teams of the 2000′s and like other beat writers such as Isola and Berman hated the Knicks administration so much that that bias still shows up in his work.

  20. flossy

    Wow, Chris Sheridan really did call Shawne Williams a poor man’s Jamal Crawford. I just… don’t even… what?! What does ‘a poor man’s Jamal Crawford” even mean? And how does the term even remotely apply to someone who was at times asked to defend Dwight Howard? I think I can count on my fingers the number of times Shawne Williams even attempted to dribble a basketball last season, much less break out the the league’s best crossover.

  21. cgreene

    TKB had a scenario that I think actually works a little better as a trading partner.

    Send Billups to Memphis for Gay. Gay, Shump, TD, Fields, Jordan to NO for Paul.

    Billups would (a) be happy to play for a contender-ish, (b) Memphis gets serious depth and leadership and insurance and becomes a real contender this year.

  22. yoda4554

    Come on, guys. Are you really going to go into the same “Hollinger hates my team!!!” rants that every idiot ESPN commenter for every single NBA team does? Hollinger knows that Melo has never been that efficient of a scorer (which PER tells him) and that he’s a bad defender (which he knows PER doesn’t account for): if PER has Melo 16th, Hollinger knows Melo is actually in the 20-25 range. The SI rankings which had Amare and Melo at 19-20 seem right to me, particularly considering that the lack any good defenders on this team to mask their weaknesses there.

  23. cgreene

    in addition to my @31

    NO gets a young legit talent in Gay and more young cheap role players from the Knicks’ platter and Gay’s contract although bad is not horrific 4yr/$70m

  24. cgreene

    Wouldn’t Gay be perfect on Chicago too? NO could flip Gay to Chicago for Gibson, Asik and something else to make the numbers work.

  25. art vandelay

    I don´t see how Memphis gets serious depth just from landing Billups in exchange for Gay? Am I reading this trade wrong, or do I not really see why Memphis would make it.

  26. cgreene

    Golden age of Eastern Conference Hoops:
    Miami – Wade, LBJ, Bosh
    NYK – Paul, STAT, Melo
    Chicago – Rose, Noah, Gay, Boozer
    Brooklyn/Orlando – DWill, Dwight

  27. cgreene

    Art, my perspective was that Memphis ultimate weakness is in the backcourt. Conley, Mayo are inconsistent/inefficeient and Tony Allen can’t play O. So Billups gives them backcourt depth. And he gives them leadership and pedigree. I also don’t think Gay is a great fit for them based on the inside out success they had with ZBo and Gasol last year. Rudy is career TS% 53 and 3pt% of 35 which are average. Chauncey really helps there and he doesn’t have to carry the load. Plus we know Heisley is cheap and might be pretty happy to unload about $55M in committed $.

  28. art vandelay

    I can see where they might offload Gay, but I think they could do better than Billups and fodder…I hear your logic behind why Billups would be a good piece, but I don´t think Memphis would do it without Fields and/or Shumpert thrown in there, and we would need those pieces to send to New Orleans instead.

    For Gay, Memphis could potentially get a guy like Iguadola who could help them much more than Billups et al. Conley improved during the second half of last year and playoffs, and while he is, indeed, erratic, I think he could hold down the fort enough to let their strong frontcourt go to work.

  29. chrisk06811

    I think NO only does this deal if they think Fields is the guy we saw prior to the melo trade, not the guy we saw after. I think the only ways this gets done are:
    -NO thinks they can still make the playoffs with what they’d get back (Chauncy, Fields) and does the deal now, taking as many draft picks as they can get
    -NO waits to see what Chauncy / Fields do over the first 10 – 20 games. That would suck. If they play well, we will hate to lose them. If they don’t, NO won’t want them. the deal will keep getting pushed. And, if it happens, we will need 20 games to gel before the playoffs.

    If I’m NO, I’m not moving just to make Paul happy….I’m in no hurry and I’m trying to max out what I get back, especially with the league owning the team.

    I’d love to have Paul, but I think it’s only really a help to us this year if it gets done now so we can build around the big 4 (CP3, STAT, Melo, JJ). but, I don’t see it happening now unless they either love Fields or find a team that does. He was Modells’ employee of the month.

  30. Mike Kurylo

    art vandelay:
    Btw, picking up on the recent theme of Hollinger being a perennial Knick-hater, in his Knick profile today he called Melo one of the game’s “25 or so best players”…I don’t believe Melo is a top 10 player given some of his flaws, but around 25? I think that is a bit of a stretch.

    I think 20 is reasonable. 25 is a bit of a tweak. And Hollinger is not a Knick-hater. Heck neither am I, for the record.

  31. Ted Nelson

    Interesting development…

    Good point about getting a third team involved, Robert. Might be the way to maximize Billups.

    I’ve sort of soured on Hollinger at this point. I have no idea how he feels about the Knicks, but the guy is so wedded to his own formula and seems pretty unwilling to admit any flaws. Then again, maybe if he’s admitting a volume scorer isn’t the greatest thing since sliced bread he’s changing. A big flaw in PER, to me, is its love for scoring volume to pass the smell test.

    art vandelay: I can see where they might offload Gay, but I think they could do better than Billups and fodder

    art vandelay: For Gay, Memphis could potentially get a guy like Iguadola who could help them much more than Billups et al.

    No idea how Memphis feels about him (probably like him given the $ he got), but Gay is way overpaid in my opinion. To me he’s a fairly league average SF (which is a really deep position around the league) who is paid like a superstar. If Memphis is trying to save money, they might not find much for Gay with his contract. They might find some sucker(s) who love scoring volume, but they might not.
    If their primary concern in dealing Gay is cutting payroll, Iggy is a fairly marginal reduction. I don’t know if they do want to cut payroll. They’ve been fairly reckless spenders recently with ZBo, Gay, and Conley… who knows if they regret it (especially with the new CBA) or want to keep spending?

  32. Jafa

    I blame Walsh for all of this!

    Knick fans are now like crack addicts. Our drug of choice is NBA super stars. Ever since he came here and cleared dead weight off our books and sold us on his plan to bring in superstars at max contracts, we’ve been addicted. Is there any superstar that has come available that we haven’t lusted after? We have even lust after the ones that won’t be available for quite some time.

    We don’t care about draft picks and young players any more, unless it relates to helping us get a superstar. We want our players in their prime and commanding top dollar. It hurts to think about the young players we have used as pawns to acquire the queens in the NBA chess game:

    Casualties of Queen STAT:
    David Lee
    Jordan Hill
    Nate Robinson

    Casualties of Queen Melo:
    Wilson Chandler
    Danilo Gallanari
    Raymond Felton
    Timofey Mozgov
    Anthony Randolph

    Possible Casualties of Queen CP3:
    Toney Douglas
    Laundry Fields
    Iman Shumpert

    Of course this does not include the countless draft picks we gave up as well. Oh well. The pain will be washed away when we ride down the canyon of heroes showering in a ticker tape parade and hoisting a golden trophy courtesy of our 3 queens.

    Well, it better end up that way. With 3 queens on the chess board, how do you lose?

  33. chrisk06811

    Jafa, remember only 5 guys are on the court at once. That whole list of guys you mention that we gave up…..none even come close to Amare, Melo or Paul.

    For Amare, the only solid rotation guy we lost was Lee.

    For Melo, we gave up Gallo and Chandler. but, remember, Chandler is about to get paid, and may be over-valued. His loss at the $$ he’s about to get is not great.

    The prob on the list for me is Randolph. Why exactly could he not get any PT here at all? that’s beyond me. I’m not in the locker room.

  34. Ted Nelson

    Jafa: We don’t care about draft picks and young players any more

    I think most people care about them, but just not as much. It’s not like these have been the greatest players in the world the Knicks are giving up. The picks have been a huge problem, but Walsh inherited that deficit from Isiah and as long as you’re making the playoffs those picks only have so much value relative to proven players. There’s an opportunity cost to any transaction. If the Knicks had held onto all those decent pieces, they’d be missing out on much better pieces.

    I have lost a lot of interest in the Knicks, personally, since they made these moves. I was really hoping for a homegrown team around one or two huge free agents. The way Gallo and Randolph played with the Knicks last season, though, I can certainly see why they traded for Melo and Billups. Jordan Hill, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Nate… these guys aren’t bad but easily replaceable. It basically came down to Lee vs. Amare. Timo and Randolph just aren’t even good. Potential, but no results.

    CP3 is arguably the best PG in the entire history of the NBA (most talented/productive at one time, not in terms of longevity yet obviously)… so if it takes a few unproven guys with potential to get him and pray his knees hold up… I don’t see how the Knicks can say no. (I honestly might trade Melo for him… since I see Melo as a bit of an odd-man-out with CP3-Amare… just surround them with shooter/defenders. There’s certainly an argument for keeping Melo, I’m just not a huge fan. Hopefully he’ll win me over.)

  35. Z

    Jafa:
    It hurts to think about the young players we have used as pawns to acquire the queens in the NBA chess game:

    Honestly, that list is rather unimpressive. Ten years from now it’s possible the only guy on that list we’d wince over is Gallinari.

    A much worse list is the list of players that could be Knicks if it wasn’t for the Layden/Thomas/Dolan moves of the pre-Walsh era. And that wasn’t for 3 queens. That was for the pawn and two rooks of Steve Francis, Eddy Curry, and Stephon Marbury!

  36. chrisk06811

    Hi Ted: I’m having lunch w/ Bob Cousey, Magic Johnson, John Stockton and Rod Strickland. Cous, Magic and Stockton want to talk to you about the best PG thingy you wrote. Hot Rod wants to know if we want desert, or just the check.

  37. Z

    chrisk06811:
    Hi Ted:I’m having lunch w/ Bob Cousey, Magic Johnson, John Stockton and Rod Strickland. Cous, Magic and Stockton want to talk to you about the best PG thingy you wrote. Hot Rod wants to know if we want desert, or just the check.

    :)

    In the interests of saving Ted from Carpal tunnel, let me just submit Mike’s analysis re: Paul and his place among the best PGs…

    http://knickerblogger.net/gotme-part-ii-point-guard/

  38. d-mar

    The Carmelo negativity on this site really amazes me sometimes. 20-25th best player in the NBA? Please provide a list of the next 19-24 and how you would without hesitation trade any of them straight up for Melo. I totally get his defensive deficiencies, but on the other side of the ball, there are only a handful equal or better in terms of offensive ability. Plus he”s a pretty decent rebounder for a SF.

    I think this season (esp. based on the report from Hahn linked above) you will learn to appreciate Melo and not worry so much about the HOF careers of Gallo, Chandler, Felton and Mozgov.

  39. Ted Nelson

    chrisk06811: Hi Ted: I’m having lunch w/ Bob Cousey, Magic Johnson, John Stockton and Rod Strickland. Cous, Magic and Stockton want to talk to you about the best PG thingy you wrote. Hot Rod wants to know if we want desert, or just the check.

    Tell them that comparing players across eras is not an exact science, which is specifically why I said “arguably.”

    Then tell them that I specifically said quality, not quantity.

    Then tell them that through his first 6 seasons Chris Paul is WAY ahead of them in terms of both WS/48 and PER, both in the regular season and playoffs.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=johnsma02&y1=1985&p2=cousybo01&y2=1956&p3=stockjo01&y3=1990&p4=paulch01&y4=2011

    Then maybe realize yourself that there is, in fact, a very strong argument for Paul as the best PG of all time.

    Z: In the interests of saving Ted from Carpal tunnel, let me just submit Mike’s analysis re: Paul and his place among the best PGs…

    Thanks, but it’s futile… I will get carpal tunnel…

  40. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    d-mar,

    Here’s my list of players I believe to be “better” than Carmelo right now. This is current, not value over any period of time.

    Howard
    LeBron
    Wade
    Bosh
    Amar’e
    Chris Paul
    Kevin Love
    Nowitzki
    Ginobili
    Nene
    Tyson Chandler
    Pau Gasol
    Kobe
    Bynum
    Odom
    Blake Griffin
    Durant
    Westbrook
    Stephen Curry
    Paul Pierce (who somehow, at 33, was as good if not better than he’s ever been)
    Marion
    Duncan
    Horford
    Randolph
    Nash
    Derrick Rose
    Garnett

    ………………….

  41. Ted Nelson

    Also, Z, I specifically said ” (most talented/productive at one time, not in terms of longevity yet obviously)”… whereas Mike was looking at career totals. In 6 seasons in the NBA Paul can’t have played 10, 15, 20 seasons. Only 6. And I have my doubts he’ll ever reach those guys given his knees… which is the reason for some pause in acquiring him, but without consulting any Dr.s… I’d probably take the risk.

    d-mar: I totally get his defensive deficiencies

    Defense is half the game. I don’t think the comment was about being maybe the #20 offensive player or scorer… but overall player.

  42. d-mar

    @53 Just so I understand, you’re basically saying you would trade Melo for Shawn Marion or Lamar Odom straight up, contracts notwithstanding?

  43. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    Okay, I’ll eliminate Odom and Marion. That still puts Carmelo at #25.

  44. d-mar

    @54 is Kevin Durant considered a top notch defender? I think his reputation is mostly based on his unstoppability on the offensive end.

  45. Z

    Adjusted for “value over a period of time”, though, you’d really have to cut that list in half, I’d say. (And I am by no means a Carmelo lover. I’m just looking at this ranking objectively).

    Take off:

    Odom because he has no business being on this list and we all know it.

    Duncan, Nash, Garnett, Randolph (is that Zach Randolph?! Yeesh), Kobe, Gasol, Marion, Pierce, and Ginobilli based on age alone.

    That puts him in the top 16.

    Then you have to seriously argue that Al Harford, Nene, Bynum, Chandler, Bosh, Amar’e, and Kevin Love are better now/have more value going forward.

    So it seems safe to say that Carmelo falls somewhere in the 9-16 range, no?

  46. Ted Nelson

    d-mar: @54 is Kevin Durant considered a top notch defender? I think his reputation is mostly based on his unstoppability on the offensive end.

    It’s a balance between a lot of variable. It’s not enough to just throw around generalities like “they’re both not great defenders” or “they’re both good scorers.” We’re talking about the very best of the very best. Durant is a much better scorer than Melo.

    I don’t think Melo is necessarily any worse than a lot of the guys Jowles lists, but I think there’s an argument to be made that he might be. I definitely don’t think it’s ridiculous to call him the #20-25 player, but I also don’t think it’s ridiculous to have him closer to #10-15. He’s got the talent, but his medium-efficiency, ball-hogging, and lack of defensive intensity hurt his case.

  47. Jafa

    Then tell them that through his first 6 seasons Chris Paul is WAY ahead of them in terms of both WS/48 and PER, both in the regular season and playoffs.

    TS% and AST% tell a different story, will the Paul behind Magic and Stockton in TS% and behind Stockton in AST%. However, I am very impressed by Paul’s TOV%.

  48. njasdjdh

    Z:
    Adjusted for “value over a period of time”, though, you’d really have to cut that list in half, I’d say. (And I am by no means a Carmelo lover. I’m just looking at this ranking objectively).

    Take off:

    Odom because he has no business being on this list and we all know it.

    Duncan, Nash, Garnett, Randolph (is that Zach Randolph?! Yeesh), Kobe, Gasol, Marion, Pierce, and Ginobilli based on age alone.

    That puts him in the top 16.

    Then you have to seriously argue that Al Harford, Nene, Bynum, Chandler, Bosh, Amar’e, and Kevin Love are better now/have more value going forward.

    So it seems safe to say that Carmelo falls somewhere in the 9-16 range, no?

    Garnett, Randolph, Kobe, Gasol, Pierce, Bynum, Amar’e, Bosh and Love are all easy calls for being better than Melo, I think. This is without doing the research.

  49. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    You know what I forgot? That the Lakers hired Mike freaking’ Brown to coach them. That is still hilarious. And I like Brown well enough, but him coaching the Lakers is a terrible match-up. He’s not the guy you drop in on a bunch of vets.

  50. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Hollinger today on possible trades, lists only a Melo for Paul as a trade option for the Knicks to get Paul, even going so far as to say, “I continue to believe this is the only plausible way in which Paul can land with the Knicks. “

  51. Z

    njasdjdh: Garnett, Randolph, Kobe, Gasol, Pierce, Bynum, Amar’e, Bosh and Love are all easy calls for being better than Melo, I think. This is without doing the research.

    If we are measuring careers, sure. Probably. Maybe. Who knows. I think the point of this list, though, is to decide who a team would rather have, going forward. Melo is young. His most productive years are in front of him. Most of the guy on Cock Jowles’ list are, self-admittedly, “in the now”.

    Playing the old “if the league disbanded and a player draft was held” game, I doubt anybody would take Kevin Garnett over over Carmelo Anthony, (The Honorable Cock Jowles included). Same goes for a lot of those “top 25″ players.

  52. Jafa

    Great summary on the new labor deal:

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7303114/everything-ever-want-know-new-nba-labor-deal

    Since the cap for this year is $58 M (and assuming a tax threshold of $70 M), we are currently approximately $2.6 M over the cap (at $60.6 M in committed salaries). The tools we have at our disposal are:

    Mid-Level Exception starting at $5 M/year for 4 years
    Bi-Annual Exception starting at $1.9 M/year for 2 years

    If we used both exceptions this year (including signing our rookies and Jerome Jordan) we will still be under the tax threshold.

    Also, for a possible CP3 trade, since we will be under the tax threshold, the percentage of salary we can take back in a trade increases to 140% from 125%, allowing us to better absorb a salary dump from New Orleans (or another trading partner in a multi-team deal).

    And then we still have the amnesty that we can use to lower our cap and tax threshold, allowing for us to possibly continue to improve the team after a CP3 trade this year.

    Despite some flaws in the draft and trade market, how do you not love Donnie Walsh right now for putting us in this position?

  53. twoseam2007

    The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman:
    d-mar,

    Here’s my list of players I believe to be “better” than Carmelo right now. This is current, not value over any period of time.

    Howard
    LeBron
    Wade
    Bosh
    Amar’e
    Chris Paul
    Kevin Love
    Nowitzki
    Ginobili
    Nene
    Tyson Chandler
    Pau Gasol
    Kobe
    Bynum
    Odom
    Blake Griffin
    Durant
    Westbrook
    Stephen Curry
    Paul Pierce (who somehow, at 33, was as good if not better than he’s ever been)
    Marion
    Duncan
    Horford
    Randolph
    Nash
    Derrick Rose
    Garnett

    ………………….

    Wow. Go away you are so off.

  54. Ben R

    Comparing players and making lists is do subjective and difficult because it’s hard to compare what Tyson Chandler brings and what Carmelo brings. An easier way to look at things in my opinion is in regards to tiers. In that regard I would put both Carmelo and Amare as third teir players.
    On the top in a very small group maybe 5 players at any given time you have LeBron, Howard, Duncan (though his age probably slides him down now) then you have 2nd teir players like Nowitski, Kobe, Gasol, then on the third teir you have Melo, Bosh, Amare, Chandler, Ginobli, etc.

    Whether or not you put Melo at the top or the bottom of that third tier I think most people would agree that Melo while better than players like Rudy Gay or Lamar Odom or even Wilson Chandler are a lot closer in talent to them than the true superstars like Howard and LeBron.

  55. Jafa

    Here is a possible trade that could save New Orleans a lot of money and help them in rebuilding:

    NYK:
    CP3 ($16.36 M this year)
    Ariza ($6.79 M)
    Jack ($5.2 M)
    Total salary absorbed = $28.15 M

    Hornets:
    Billups ($14.2 M)
    Shumpert ($1.56 M)
    Douglas ($1.15 M)
    Brown ($1.06M)
    Fields ($0.79 M)
    Jordan ($0.79 M)
    Rautins ($0.79 M)
    Any draft picks we still have and are allowed to trade
    Total salary absorbed = $20.33 M (meets the 140% threshold of $20.26 M).

    Hornets save almost $8 M in this trade for 2011-12. They can get better offers for Okafor in a center deficient NBA and get other cheap players and picks as well. They would probably have to keep Billups to keep their payroll close to the $49.3 M minimum.

  56. Mike Kurylo

    yoda4554:
    Come on, guys.Are you really going to go into the same “Hollinger hates my team!!!” rants that every idiot ESPN commenter for every single NBA team does?Hollinger knows that Melo has never been that efficient of a scorer (which PER tells him) and that he’s a bad defender (which he knows PER doesn’t account for): if PER has Melo 16th, Hollinger knows Melo is actually in the 20-25 range.The SI rankings which had Amare and Melo at 19-20 seem right to me, particularly considering that the lack any good defenders on this team to mask their weaknesses there.

    Amen.

  57. Mike Kurylo

    Z: If we are measuring careers, sure. Probably. Maybe. Who knows. I think the point of this list, though, is to decide who a team would rather have, going forward. Melo is young. His most productive years are in front of him. Most of the guy on Cock Jowles’ list are, self-admittedly, “in the now”.

    Then add 3-6 guys that are in College/Europe that will eventually be better than Carmelo.

    When you’re doing the top list you have to stick to the present day. If you’re talking about the 2015 season, then I imagine a couple of youngsters will arise who will be better than ‘Melo.

    But for right now I think Kevin Garnett is better than ‘Melo. It doesn’t mean the Knicks will make that trade due to the ages involved. But I imagine if a team offered the Celtics a guaranteed 1st overall pick in one of the next 3 drafts, Garnett would be gone. So you have to take that into account as well.

  58. BigBlueAL

    Stepping away from the CP3 stuff, if Orlando trades Howard to a Western Conference team and with the Hawks most likely losing Crawford and possibly trading away Josh Smith, am I the only one here who thinks the current Knicks can be the 4th seed in the East this season w/o making any moves??

    Ive said all along my goal for this season for this team barring a trade for CP3 is to get into the 4/5 seed and win a playoff round. Ive never said I was an ambitious person lol

  59. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Yeah, the Knicks have a really good shot at the #4 seed if Orlando deals Howard. Hmmm…who else should improve this year? The Pacers have a lot of cap space, I guess. Anyone else seemed poised to make a jump in the standings?

  60. Jafa

    Bucks by virtue of health. I would expect a jump from the Wizards, but maybe not into the playoff picture.

  61. Z

    Mike Kurylo: Then add 3-6 guys that are in College/Europe that will eventually be better than Carmelo.

    When you’re doing the top list you have to stick to the present day. If you’re talking about the 2015 season, then I imagine a couple of youngsters will arise who will be better than ‘Melo.

    Yeah, fair enough, and I thought about including prospects with high expectation (I also couldn’t help but notice THCJ left John Wall off his list, knowing what I do about his personal distaste for the young PG and smiling to myself).

    But I do think it is a more useful exercise to make lists based “on the now”, but with an eye to the future. Say, who are the best players over the next 4 years (the window of Melo’s contract)? Not even taking medical risks into mind, but just a natural age-effected regression in productivity. Kobe’s age (and the $30.5 million due him in 2014(!)), should be weighed against him, if the list is to be of any worth to anyone.

  62. Robert Silverman

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):
    Yeah, the Knicks have a really good shot at the #4 seed if Orlando deals Howard. Hmmm…who else should improve this year? The Pacers have a lot of cap space, I guess. Anyone else seemed poised to make a jump in the standings?

    W/o CP3 and assuming Howard stays in Orlando this season, the East should break down like this:

    1. Miami
    2. Chicago
    3. Boston
    4. Orlando
    5. New York
    6. Atlanta
    7. Philly
    8. A toss up between Milwaukee, Indiana, & Washington.

    I too think DC’s going to be a lot better this year. Wall’s going to improve dramatically (like Rose did in his 2nd season) and they’ve got a slew of young athletes to run w/him in McGee, Vesely, Crawford & Singleton. They’ll get 35-37 wins, which may be enough to sneak in.

  63. yoda4554

    By the way, for the people saying that there’s no way you’d trade Melo for someone like Horford, think about this for a sec–which of these five-man groups is better?

    Team A: Billups-Fields-Anthony-Stoudemire-Cheap Lunky Center
    Team B: Billups-Douglas-Fields-Stoudemire-Horford

    I don’t think there’s much of a question that Team B is better defensively–Horford gives you the solid (if slightly-undersized) post defender and rebounder that Team A doesn’t have (barring an exception-signing coup), and having Douglas guard 1s and Billups 2s is a much better situation than Team A’s got in the backcourt.

    And I think that Team B’s probably better offensively, too. Of course, losing Melo loses you lots of versatile shot creation. That would be a problem, except that when you have Stoudemire and Billups as your top two options, you have plenty of ways to develop your possessions offensively anyway. And Team A is much better for Stoudemire’s offense. I’m sure that you all noticed that teams found it EASIER to double Stoudemire after the trade, because playing with Melo and the Jeffries/Williams types meant Stoudemire had vastly less floor-spacing to work with than in the STAT-and-four-shooters approach he flourished in. Playing with three three-point threats plus Horford (who’s got a jumper accurate out to about 18-20 ft.) means that Stoudemire has tons of space to take his man one-on-one, or tons of time to pass out of double-teams if a help defender decides to leave a shooter open on the perimeter. You can easily distribute Melo’s shots among Team B’s players–all of whom (except Douglas) are much more efficient scorers than Anthony.

    So yes, I’d trade Melo for Horford straight up, if given the chance.

  64. twoseam2007

    This is the current top 10 right now as of today

    1) Lebron
    2) Dwayne Wade
    3) Dwight Howard
    4) Chris Paul
    5) Kevin Durant
    6) Derrick Rose
    7) Dirk
    8) Carmelo
    9) Deron Williams
    10) Kobe

    Carmelo is no 3rd tier player, nor is he inferior to Tyson Chander (averaged 6 points and 22 minutes with charlotte a year ago!!!), Chris bosh, Al horford, or any other ACTUAL 3rd tier player.

  65. BigBlueAL

    Robert Silverman: W/o CP3 and assuming Howard stays in Orlando this season, the East should break down like this:

    1. Miami
    2. Chicago
    3. Boston
    4. Orlando
    5. New York
    6. Atlanta
    7. Philly
    8. A toss up between Milwaukee, Indiana, & Washington.

    I too think DC’s going to be a lot better this year. Wall’s going to improve dramatically (like Rose did in his 2nd season) and they’ve got a slew of young athletes to run w/him in McGee, Vesely, Crawford & Singleton. They’ll get 35-37 wins, which may be enough to sneak in.

    Remember Robert its a 66 game season, 35-37 wins is what I expect the Knicks to win this season. I guess the Wiz could win 28-30 games which would be the equivalent of winning 35-37 over an 82 game season.

  66. BigBlueAL

    BTW again I know its not the ultimate goal but its still kinda nice that we are entering a season with a flawed Knicks team yet we realistically expect them to finish 4th or 5th in the East which the Knicks havent done since the 2000-2001 season. Think about that before bitching and whining about Melo and Amar’e and not possibly getting CP3.

    Also remember regardless of CP3 the Knicks will still be way under the cap next off-season. The immediate future is still pretty damn good especially after the crap we have watched over the last 10 years or so.

  67. Z-man

    Howard OK
    Here’s my synopsis of Jowles’ list:

    LeBron OK
    Wade OK
    Bosh No, but debatable
    Amar’e Equal, but debatable
    Chris Paul OK
    Kevin Love No, but debatable
    Nowitzki OK, age a factor
    Ginobili No, but debatable due to age/injury concerns
    Nene No, but debatable
    Tyson Chandler No, but debatable
    Pau Gasol OK
    Kobe OK, but age is becoming a factor
    Bynum Debatable, I would not trade Melo for him straight up
    Odom NO
    Blake Griffin OK
    Durant OK
    Westbrook No, but debatable
    Stephen Curry No, but debatable
    Paul Pierce No, due to age (who somehow, at 33, was as good if not better than he’s ever been)
    Marion NO!
    Duncan Not anymore
    Horford No
    Randolph No, but debatable
    Nash No due to age
    Derrick Rose OK
    Garnett Not any more

    So I think it is reasonable to put Melo anywhere from 11-21 if everyone stays the same as last year for this coming year. However, I think there are only 6 guys that (barring injury) Melo will probably never be as good as: LeBron, Durant, Wade, Paul, Rose, Griffin. I think this year will be a defining one for Melo.

  68. Robert Silverman

    BigBlueAL: Remember Robert its a 66 game season, 35-37 wins is what I expect the Knicks to win this season.I guess the Wiz could win 28-30 games which would be the equivalent of winning 35-37 over an 82 game season.

    Right! I keep forgetting about the season being shortened.

  69. steveoh

    I’m trying as best as I can to keep Shump in perspective, mostly because he was really off and on in college. Athletic? Yes. Erratic? Oh yes. But he’s tweeting and writing the right things and did I mention how athletic he is?

    So, unscientific as it may be, I just looked back at the #17 draft picks from the past couple of years just to ground my expectations. You know, remind me that he was drafted 17th overall and you can’t expect much.

    Turns out, if form holds true, he’ll be a bit better than the flotsam and jetsam you normally see down there. And if form holds true, he might actually have some worth in a Chris Paul trade.

    2010: Kévin Séraphin
    2009: Jrue Holiday
    2008: Roy Hibbert
    2007: Sean Williams
    2006: Shawne Williams
    2005: Danny Granger
    2004: Josh Smith

    Again, it doesn’t mean much other than he’s in nice company with some valuable other commodities.

  70. DS

    Just skimming over the comments for the last two posts.

    First of all, how many blogs can you criticized by a guy named Z because there’s no way the Clippers would give up Landry and Douglas for DeAndre and then have a guy name Z-Man say that DeAndre is horrible?

    Secondly, reviewing option C from the last post, can’t Paul sign with the Knicks for 2 years at $18.5M/year, stay healthy for 2012-13 and then sign an extension over the cap in 2013? Risky for a guy but was is playing in the Olympics and these exhibition games during the lockout.

    I think he’s a lock to sign this summer. I think the Hornets will wait until the deadline, possibly try to make a deal w/ the Clips, Thunder, or another team but if he won’t commit to an extension w/ them, they’ll have no choice but to take whatever the Knicks are offering. Douglas, Fields, Shumpert, and draft picks.

  71. DS

    Is there any debate among poster whether he REALLY wants to be a Knick? Because I’m all but positive.

  72. DS

    Just remembered that the NBA owns the Hornets. I think that makes the deadline trade scenario less feasible than if N.O. had an owner but I still say Paul and his agent can force their way to NY.

  73. Mike Kurylo

    @79 – just for future reference we stick to logic here, not what our gut tells us. I can use my gut to come with a completely different list than yours, and so could anyone else here, but what would be the point?

    There aren’t many NBA analysts that would agree with Carmelo as a top 10 NBA player, and those that would don’t back it up with any real evidence.

  74. Z-man

    Mike Kurylo: Then add 3-6 guys that are in College/Europe that will eventually be better than Carmelo. When you’re doing the top list you have to stick to the present day. If you’re talking about the 2015 season, then I imagine a couple of youngsters will arise who will be better than ‘Melo. But for right now I think Kevin Garnett is better than ‘Melo. It doesn’t mean the Knicks will make that trade due to the ages involved. But I imagine if a team offered the Celtics a guaranteed 1st overall pick in one of the next 3 drafts, Garnett would be gone. So you have to take that into account as well.

    True; however, present day analysis must consider age in projecting for the coming year. Kobe, Garnett, and Duncan are far less likely to improve on (or even match) last year’s stats than Melo. Also, Kobe, Duncan and Garnett all were disappointing in the playoffs (as was Melo except for an all-world game 2). Duncan and Garnett are also much lower usage players than Melo at this stage in their careers, so it is worht asking whether they could sustain their effectiveness if their usage increased, or could Melo be better still if his usage decreased (as it likely would on a team with Amare and CP3). His shooting certainly improved after coming to Knicks, and his defense at least appeared better in the playoffs than his rep would have indicated.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=garneke01&y1=2011&p2=anthoca01&y2=2011&p3=duncati01&y3=2011&p4=bryanko01&y4=2011

  75. Z-man

    for the last two posts.First of all, how mDS: Just skimming over the comments any blogs can you criticized by a guy named Z because there’s no way the Clippers would give up Landry and Douglas for DeAndre and then have a guy name Z-Man say that DeAndre is horrible?

    Dude, get your facts straight, I’m the one who’s DeAndre’s Z-b—h.

  76. Z

    Z-man: Dude, get your facts straight, I’m the one who’s DeAndre’s Z-b—h.

    And all I said was that D’Andre has no outside game so D’Antoni wouldn’t play him :)

  77. Shad0wF0x

    Jeffries got a lot of playing time and I’d cringe if he took a jumpshot. The same thing applies to Ronny Turiaf (just because he doesn’t attempt anything) and Sheldon Williams. Kurt Thomas they are not.

  78. Z-man

    Plus, management seems to be pressuring D’Antoni to pay more attention to D, as is apparent in the hiring of Woodson. Not that he’s the answer…

  79. Frank

    Does anyone know the answer to this question: is the MLE a total amount to be spent in any way the team sees fit, or is it a full yearly amount that can only be spent in a prorated fashion? In other words, could we hold onto our MLE and, say, offer all 5M of it to Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, or JR Smith when they are released from china? Especially in the case of Chandler who by all reports wants to come back to the Knicks, offering 5M for one month may be more than Denver is willing to match, especially of they’re out of it. From Chandler’s perspective, it may not be such a bad thing to wait until after the season to go after his long term contract as there will be plenty of teams with cap space next year.

  80. danvt

    One thing that I felt during the long Melo drama was that I wanted this guy because, the minute he got to Denver, they became a demonstrably better team. That’s one statistic that gets lost with Carmelo, wins for his team. He, also, led Syracuse to a national championship as a freshman. Billups for Iverson also dramatically changed the McNuggets fortunes in terms of the all important “wins for your team” statistic.

    People criticize the Knicks for the 14-14 after the trade, but, to me, this was impressive considering Billups was out of the lineup a lot and the roster had been almost completely turned over. As I recall, we were very competitive with the Celtics before Stat’s back went out.
    So, I believe that Melo and Stat will be very good and the Knicks will win more than they will lose. Chauncey being healthy will be a big key.

  81. daJudge

    Frank–There is a recent ESPN article cited in TKB on this very issue re: Chandler. Getting Wil back in February could help relieve the Knicks, who will be running out of gas at that point. In response to Z-Man–Do you think the hiring of Woodson (which I agree is not the answer) could shave a few points off what we give up per game. Even a small number, such as 2 points per game, could have a real positive impact. If we could stay productive on offense, which, barring major injury is a reasonable assumption, even a relatively slight improvement on D could prove significant. In addition, the D was so poor last year, there is a lot of room for improvement. Signing Woodson to me signals management’s interest in defense. This should in turn make Coach more open to defensive concerns. If we could sign a defensive big, it is more likely that the Coach will play him given the signals from management and the looming specter of Phil. Ultimately though, it is the player’s commitment to D that counts most in all sports. (Quoth the Giant fan “nevermore”)

  82. Z-man

    The Knicks, considering their personnel, actually played pretty well on D in the playoffs, and in beating Miami late in the season. D’Antoni’s offense is probably responsible for most of the troubling #s on D. At the end of the day, you need the personnel, so I dout that Woodson makes as much difference as, say, Shump and Jerome Jordan (and even Jorts) might if they are NBA ready. The big thing is to slow down the O and abandon SSoL somewhat, as they did down the stretch and in the playoffs.

  83. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    http://bkref.com/tiny/H9SUj

    It may not be verifiable “truth,” but it’s certainly a lot better than insubstantial argument or conjecture.

    And I don’t even think Win Shares is a very good stat. It’s better than PER, probably worse (at least in win correlations) than WP/48, and no “eye-test” is going to tell me that Carmelo’s middling efficiency is somehow mitigated by his ability to “make the big shot” or his “intangible aptitude for the game.”

    As I’ve said a thousand times, people have to take shots on the floor. Some of those people, we know, are going to miss. So if you’re discrediting high efficiency players like Love and Chandler for being really, really good at turning missed shots into extra possessions and possessions into extra points, you’re missing the simplest logic the game has to offer: don’t give the ball to the other team without scoring.

  84. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    For some reason, Basketball Reference’s tinyurl maker isn’t working.

    I sorted by WS/48, all players above 2000 MP for 2010-11. Carmelo was 43rd.

  85. ghill

    Does taking okafor back still make sense contractually/cap wise? He was 10th last year in total boards per 48 and had a nice balance of offensive to defensive bounds.

    On a separate note, are there any good stats for help defense? I know a lot of it is system based but a bunch is apptitude and effort.

  86. twoseam2007

    I have no idea how we could make the contract values match within the required 150% if we take on Okafor as well, but if we were somehow able to taken on Okafor’s contract (Including Turiaf’s expiring may help), he’d be a great addition. He is constantly looked over because he is slightly overpaid, but he is still a good player and a top big in the league.

  87. taggart4800

    I think the crazy thing here is, by no means am I an expert, but Melo is very much an average player when measured by most if not all statistics. @101 makes my point. His WS/48 are Avg.

    I am not a Melo fan but I can undoubtedly see his incredible potential. He has an extremely diverse repertoire on the offensive end and all the physical characteristics to be a model wing and mid-post defender. Given the right coach, who I incidentally believe is MDA, I think Melo will see a fairly sizeable spike in his efficiency. The problem he faces is, he takes it upon himself to take an awful lot of poor shots. Now these shots sometimes have to be taken and Melo does, subjectively, appear to have an increased talent level than most meaning he should in theory be more likely to make these inefficient shots than others.
    I think many on this site would concede that MDA does increase the efficiency of good shooters under his tutelage and only time will tell.
    But as concrete evidence of talent we currently only ave statistics, which are unfortunately not kind to our friend Mr. Anthony.
    It takes an awful lot of talent to be capable of scoring 50 points in an NBA game and an awful lot of ignorance to think it is your god given right to chase that total on a nightly basis, no matter your motivation for doing so.
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01.html
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/paulch01.html

    Under the guidance of MDA the aforementioned Marion had a higher overall WS/48 than Melo
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mariosh01.html

    Individual game matchups are good when considering Melo. He does tend to have good games when playing against high profile counterparts (too many to list). Perhaps further proof that his issues are mental rather than physical.

  88. taggart4800

    Right now though you would have to say the numbers put him in the top 20-30 overall players in the league. Any lower would be allowing his outlying performances to influence your decision. That then is another list. Top Game Changers in the NBA. More subjective and Melo maybe higher on my list then also. Maybe i am wrong and I really don’t mind if I am. I am just thrilled to be talking Basketball again!!!!

  89. taggart4800

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player=&match=career&year_min=2004&year_max=2011&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&is_playoffs=N&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=pts&c1comp=gt&c1val=35&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player=&match=career&year_min=2009&year_max=2011&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&is_playoffs=N&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=pts&c1comp=gt&c1val=35&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts

    Top Link = Players with most 35+ Point games since Melo’s first season

    Bottom Link = Since Durant joined the NBA.

    He is a good but still not great NBA scorer. Would I take him before Durant? Based on the numbers, Hell No! Based on what I feel, maybe. I am wooed by his Swag:)

  90. d-mar

    I guess if we’re going to get into a stats war, I would suggest looking at PER for 2010-2011. Carmelo at #16 is ahead of the following players:

    Durant
    Deron Williams
    Bosh
    Love
    Rondo
    Pierce
    Garnett
    Ginoboli
    Joe Johnson
    Horford

    Am I suggesting I would rather have Melo than Durant for instance? Of course not. You take your WS/48, I take my PER and we can argue forever. But I think saying Melo is between the 20th and 30th best player in the NBA is just ludicrous.

  91. twoseam2007

    Anyone who puts Melo out of the top 15 should be banned. That is ludacris, absurd and downright blasphemous.

  92. Z-man

    The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman: For some reason, Basketball Reference’s tinyurl maker isn’t working.I sorted by WS/48, all players above 2000 MP for 2010-11. Carmelo was 43rd.

    When the WS 48 list for last year is sorted for players that had a usage % of 25 or above, Melo is 17th.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2011&year_max=2011&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=2000&c2stat=usg_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=25&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws_per_48

  93. Z-man

    I think it is fair to asy that Melo is in a group of players that you can make arguments for being anywhere from 10-25, depending on the stats that you use to make your case. If age, usage, team/system, and health concerns are factored in, players can slide up or down the list. I don’t there is a definitive ranking system that can nail this down to everyone’s satisfaction. The larger point is, can Melo add to his game at age 26 (as Pierce did, it has been mentioed by me and others that Melo and Pierce were eerily similar players at this point in their careers) or is he topped out at this level? I, for one, think he has top 5-10, and possibly MVP candidate potential from the neck down. He just needs to get his mind right.

  94. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    twoseam2007:
    Anyone who puts Melo out of the top 15 should be banned. That is ludacris, absurd and downright blasphemous.

    There is simply no justification for your assertions other than: “I seen it and thus feel it, so it must be.” Mainstream sports analysis and religion are the only two things where this kind of argument seems to be “okay.” You probably haven’t read up on the four factors, and you thus have no idea what you’re talking about.

    Ludacris is a rapper, by the way.

  95. cgreene

    Supporting the theories that (a) MDA gets good offensive players to become more efficient and (b) that Melo is more motivated to improve as a Knick i.e. his mind is right, he had the best advanced stats of his career in his 28 games as a Knick

    TS% .575 vs Career .545
    Reb % was up a tick to 10.6 from 9.9
    Ast % Flat
    Tov% Down to 9.4 from 11.7
    Ortg up to 114 from 107
    Drtg up to 111 from 107
    WS/48 up to .157 from .126

    If this is the Melo of the next 5 seasons he is top 10.

    Of course Ted Nelson knows that he will regress to the mean.

  96. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    Are we seriously calling a .157 WS/48 a top 10 player?

    How does that work?

  97. JK47

    WS% is an interesting but deeply flawed stat. It’s VERY heavily dependent on your teammates.

    Case in point: Anderson Varejao. As LeBron James’ teammate, Anderson Varejao had some very nice WS% numbers: .166 in 2009, .179 in 2010. In the LeBron-less season of 2011, Varejao’s WS% cratered to .105 despite efficiency numbers that were very similar to his 2009 season.

    Then look at James Jones. Jones was a fairly middling player for the Heat in 2008 and 2009, with WS% numbers of .065 and .099. With the arrival of LBJ, Jones’ WS% shoots up to a career-high .145. Now, in Jones’ case, there was a serious spike in his TS% and eFG%, but we all know that is because nobody is paying very much attention to guarding James Jones when they are playing against the Heatles.

    So if the Knicks were to acquire a certain point guard from the New Orleans Hornets who happens to pass the ball as well as just about anybody on planet Earth, the Knicks will start winning a lot more games and thus will have more Win Shares to spread around, and we will probably all of a sudden see Carmelo Anthony start putting up WS% numbers that are very high, like in the .200 range.

  98. taggart4800

    @110 CO-SIGN
    @ 111 LMFAO
    @ 114 Agreed. Most stats have a flaw. Combining the stats is the key. Not that I for a second think I know what I am talking about. Learnt everything from this site.

  99. cgreene

    The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman:
    Are we seriously calling a .157 WS/48 a top 10 player?

    How does that work?

    First off I listed 7 statistics. But because WS% is so flawed per @114 above. Let’s look at offense first. Of the players in the top 20 in USG last season let’s take a combo of USG and efficiency (TS%) and see where Melo nets out.

    LeBron USG 29.7, TS% .594
    DWade USG 29.1, TS% .581
    Durant USG 27.8, TS% .589
    Kevin Martin USG 27.2, TS% .601 (wow btw!)
    Dirk USG 25.5, TS% .612
    Melo (as a Knick) USG 30.1, TS% .575

    So he was 6th in this USG efficiency combo. Plus he turned the ball over slightly less than anyone on that list but Dirk. His assists def hurt him when compared to Wade and LeBron but he has a higher ast rate and a higher reb rate than Durant and he’s arguably as good or maybe even a better defender.

    Melo at his Knicks numbers is a top 10 player in the NBA.

    As an aside, I came across something strange when looking at this. Chris Paul is 65th in the NBA in USG. I think assists are too heavily discounted by giving them a 1/3 value in the formula.

  100. max fisher-cohen

    @JK47, I think you make a really important point, but I’m not sure that it proves that James Jones is worse or better than his WS indicates. It just shows that having talents that complement one another is crucial to individual players’ and teams’ success. We saw this with the Heat last year not just with James Jones, but with Lebron and Wade as well. Because neither of them are comfortable or effective at doing what James Jones does (i.e. catching and shooting rather than creating) the Heat’s offense suffered.

    I would argue that if you made James and Wade into average defensive players, the heat would have been a .500 team. A big part of why their offense was efficient was because their transition game. In a set offense, they were not that good. This was exposed by the Mavs, who run a very disciplined offense. The Mavs only averaged about 11 TOs/game vs. the Heat. The reason for this was not because they didn’t have enough LeBron James’ or Dwyane Wades. They struggled because they didn’t have enough James Jones’. They were relying on House and Miller to spread the floor.

    They overcame this early on in the series because Wade and James shot way above average from outside: James was 5/9 and Wade was 4/8 in the Heat’s two wins. In their losses, they regressed to the mean: Wade was 3/15 and James was 4/19. They couldn’t spread the floor, essentially allowing Dallas to pack the middle, and because Dallas’s offense was so disciplined, the Heat’s D couldn’t create offense.

    Call me crazy, but IMO if the Heat traded Wade or Lebron for, say, Chauncey Billups, Aron Afflalo, and a decent center like Gortat or Varejao they would be unstoppable. Hell, if Anthony improved his defense a bit, I think he’d be a better fit with Miami than James.

    To get back to your original point though I think it’s a case of a symbiotic relationship. Stars/creators need role players, and role players need stars.

  101. taggart4800

    If the knicks are going to swing a trade for paul I think the pacers cap room will be involved. No idea what picks they hold etc but they could accept billups and okafor a swing some picks NO way.

  102. Frank

    It’ll be really interesting to see which teams leave themselves some room (either salary cap or exception $) to make a run at the guys returning from China. Wilson Chandler, JR Smith, and Kenyon Martin are all guys who could make a real difference down the stretch.

    Re: this whole Melo and his place in the hierarchy of NBA superstars – very difficult to compare guys that have completely different games – ie. Tyson Chandler and Melo. On top of that, using stats, which really only make sense to me on the offensive end, completely leaves out the defensive side. That being said – he’s clearly not better on offense than other non-center/non-PG high-usage guys like LBJ, Wade, Durant, and Dirk. But once you get past that, I think an argument could be made for Melo against old Kobe, Pierce, Bosh, Amare, Love, and the rest. So he’s a tier 1B or 2 offensive player.

    *An aside on Durant – I think he greatly benefits from weighing about 125 lbs -he’s 6’10″ and gets foul calls like JJ Barea. Any nudge and he goes flying and benefits a TON of ticky-tack foul calls. I may be looking through a fan’s eyes, but I don’t recall another superstar (outside DH12 and Shaq) drawing as much contact without getting foul calls as Melo does. Two years ago, Durant’s FTA/FGA was 0.5, and I highly doubt that he was actually fouled more than Melo was. You give Melo a FTA/FGA of 0.5 and his TS will be near 60 as well.

    The defensive side of the ball is what separates LBJ, Wade, and Kobe from everyone else. Very difficult to quantify, but obviously they pass the eye-test defensively and Melo obviously doesn’t.

    Knick D will be interesting this year with hopefully some contribution from Shumpert. He looks to have the length/athleticism/quick twitch that will allow him to play like LBJ/Wade do on D- provide tons of help while still being able to get back to his man. TD+Shumpert should be interesting.

  103. max fisher-cohen

    max fisher-cohen: They overcame this early on in the series because Wade and James shot way above average from outside: James was 5/9 and Wade was 4/8 in the Heat’s two wins. In their losses, they regressed to the mean: Wade was 3/15 and James was 4/19.

    just to clarify, those shooting numbers are for threes.

  104. danvt

    No one commented on my earlier post, so, I thought I’d back it up with some keen statistical analysis.
    2010-11 Denver 50 32
    2009-10 Denver 53 29
    2008-09 Denver 54 28
    2007-08 Denver 50 32
    2006-07 Denver 45 37
    2005-06 Denver 44 38
    2004-05 Denver 49 33
    2003-04 Denver 43 39
    2002-03 Denver 17 65

    2002-2003 Melo was playing at Syracuse, where he was the best player on a national title team. According to my calculations, in his rookie season, the team improved by 26 wins over the previous year and he has never played on a sub .500 team.

    Seems like this trumps a lot of the advanced stat based hate for Melo. Am I wrong? Was Chris Anderson the reason for Denver’s turnaround?

  105. knickterp

    Game 2 at Boston:

    Melo 42 pts, 17 rebs, 6 assists, 2 blocks.

    As the sole focus of the C’s vaunted defense. Playing with D Leaguers.

    How soon we forget. I’m sure Kevin Love could have duplicated that, after he figures out how to improve the T-Wolves 17-65 record.

  106. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    danvt,

    That’s poor analysis. The Nuggets had 21 players log minutes during the season before Anthony was drafted, and during his rookie year, the Nuggets added Andre Miller and Marcus Camby. Simple win-loss is no way to evaluate an individual player’s effectiveness.

    Max,

    You’re crazy. LeBron and Wade are two of the most efficient players in the league, and their advanced stats suffered very little from their playing together. The Heat lost because Bosh is not a good complement for them (they probably would have won a championship with a center like Noah or Chandler) and Mike Miller was far less efficient than he had been in previous seasons. If they land Oden with the MLE (and he plays more than 50 games) and get a healthy Mike Miller, they’re a 70-win team.

    cgreene,

    Melo’s tenure as a Knick is far too short to be considered a representative example. I’m not arguing that Carmelo is not a good player. Clearly, he is. But when you argue over a small sample that D’antoni’s system made him, somehow, a better player after seven years of mediocrity (by all available metrics), then the same should go for the other big-time weapon the Knicks added. Look at Amar’e's numbers. They’re clearly his worst since he was 21, his second year in the league.

    Taggart,

    Combining stats is not the key. Combining stats leads to the mindset that if a stat doesn’t match with one’s visual/memory assessment, it must be wrong, and thus one should look for another stat to support his assertions. That’s not the way the scientific method works. You can’t simply void an analysis because it opposes your hypothesis. One all-inclusive stat is the only way to get closer to truth.

    That’s gotta make sense to you all. Please tell me you understand this.

  107. knickterp

    Re: 125, Look, if one believes there’s one sole “all-inclusive stat” that leads to the promised land of NBA player analysis, he/she’s sadly mistaken. This isn’t baseball, where the pitcher throws to the batter in a one-on-one matchup. The NBA involves officiating biases/tendencies, players who handle the ball vs. players who rely on others to deliver them the ball, style/pace of play, players who focus on rebounding vs. defending vs. blocking shots, etc.
    There’s just too many variables, and that’s not even counting the detestable-to-many “clutch” factor (see LeBron’s impossible-to-explain performance in the finals).
    In short, the notion that one advanced stat (OPS) has revolutionized the analysis of one sport simply does not mean there’s one available to revolutionize the analysis of every other sport.

  108. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    I really don’t see the insult in saying that Melo is one of the 20 or so best players in the NBA. Until Amar’e and Melo, the Knicks haven’t had a player like that since Patrick Ewing had two working wrists and now they have two of them. That’s good. If you seriously think “He’s the 18th best player in the NBA” instead of “He’s the 13th best player in the NBA” is some major insult, well, you shouldn’t think that. It’s demonstrably not a big deal.

  109. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    See, I don’t believe there’s one all-inclusive stat. I know how discrete the game of basketball is, and until there’s advanced spatial tracking and analysis of reaction time and physical contact and ball movement (which is [the singularity!!!!] probably a few decades down the road), we’ll never reach that elusive Truth we’re looking for. But some stats are closer than others. And that’s the argument I’m trying to make. If you’re citing PER, you’re doing it wrong. If you’re citing per game stats, you’re doing it wrong. Hell, even WS/48 is a poor stat. Better than most, but still pretty bad. I don’t mind relying on WP/48 because it is demonstrably more accurate than the others in approximating wins based on individual player statistics.

    Brian is right when he says that it doesn’t really matter that much. I know Carmelo’s somewhere between 15 and 30 on the list, and according to the stats, I’d argue he’s closer to 30 than 15.

  110. ess-dog

    I think putting Stat and Melo at 19 and 20 as ESPN did was pretty fair. But seriously, who cares?
    Re: Paul, he’s now supposedly open to the Clips and Orlando. Teaming with Howard or Blake would be a smart move, but neither is a perfect situation. Orlando will spend $ but is a small market. LA is a big market but won’t spend.
    One thing I wonder: Could the Knicks have a back up trade plan in case Paul gets traded to another team? It seems like we would want to use Billups’ expiring this year. I can’t imagine we’d resign him next year. While I think there is a chance we sign Paul in free agency if he makes it that far, I don’t believe we could get Howard or Williams with the room we have.

  111. danvt

    The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman: That’s poor analysis. The Nuggets had 21 players log minutes during the season before Anthony was drafted, and during his rookie year, the Nuggets added Andre Miller and Marcus Camby. Simple win-loss is no way to evaluate an individual player’s effectiveness.

    So, according to your logic, if you replace 2003-2004 Carmelo Anthony with Danillo Galinari, you still get a 26 game turnaround? Are there twenty to thirty players who would have had a similar impact? I just think that people have missed the forest for the trees on this guy. Now, if the Knicks are lower than .500 this year I’ll be the first to admit that Melo is overrated, but from what I’ve seen, I’m going to believe that the Knicks were right to bet on this guy.

  112. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    It’s not even the same team, bro.

    Here’s 2002-03′s team, top 7 players in MP.

    Juwan Howard
    Nene Hilario
    Junior Harrington
    Donnell Harvey
    Rodney White
    Vincent Yarbrough
    Nikoloz Tskitishvili

    Here’s the following year.

    Carmelo Anthony
    Andre Miller
    Nene Hilario
    Vochon Lenad
    Marcus Camby
    Earl Boykins
    Jon Barry

    How can you even compare the two? How can you substantiate the argument that Carmelo is worth a large portion of those 26 games? If that’s the grounds of your argument, your argument is completely invalid. It doesn’t take a degree in statistics from MIT to see that. How is this so hard to understand, man?

    Seriously, is this board full of petulant 8-year-olds? Or am I the only one operating on an 11-year-old’s mathematical comprehension level? What gives, internet? What gives?

  113. iserp

    The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman: Seriously, is this board full of petulant 8-year-olds? Or am I the only one operating on an 11-year-old’s mathematical comprehension level? What gives, internet? What gives?

    If you are going to start calling names, at least be a man and back your words. Define accuracy for a stat, and demonstrate that WP/48 is accurate as you say (through scientific method, predictions made from that stat compared to reality)

  114. ess-dog

    It is shocking to look at this and see what a bad job Denver has done surrounding Melo with talent. That Nene/Miller/Camby team was a great mix. Then they add guys like Kenyon, AI, and even last year Harrington… They really deserved to lose him.

    The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman:
    It’s not even the same team, bro.

    Here’s 2002-03?s team, top 7 players in MP.

    Juwan Howard
    Nene Hilario
    Junior Harrington
    Donnell Harvey
    Rodney White
    Vincent Yarbrough
    Nikoloz Tskitishvili

    Here’s the following year.

    Carmelo Anthony
    Andre Miller
    Nene Hilario
    Vochon Lenad
    Marcus Camby
    Earl Boykins
    Jon Barry

    How can you even compare the two? How can you substantiate the argument that Carmelo is worth a large portion of those 26 games? If that’s the grounds of your argument, your argument is completely invalid. It doesn’t take a degree in statistics from MIT to see that. How is this so hard to understand, man?

    Seriously, is this board full of petulant 8-year-olds? Or am I the only one operating on an 11-year-old’s mathematical comprehension level? What gives, internet? What gives?

  115. d-mar

    Cock Jowles:

    It must be very frustrating for you to be the only one on this site who can grasp basic statistical concepts. So rather than get all upset with those less intelligent than you, why not try another site? I’m sure they’d welcome you with open arms.

  116. Spree8nyk8

    ess-dog:
    I think putting Stat and Melo at 19 and 20 as ESPN did was pretty fair.But seriously, who cares?
    Re: Paul, he’s now supposedly open to the Clips and Orlando.Teaming with Howard or Blake would be a smart move, but neither is a perfect situation.Orlando will spend $ but is a small market.LA is a big market but won’t spend.
    One thing I wonder:Could the Knicks have a back up trade plan in case Paul gets traded to another team?It seems like we would want to use Billups’ expiring this year.I can’t imagine we’d resign him next year.While I think there is a chance we sign Paul in free agency if he makes it that far, I don’t believe we could get Howard or Williams with the room we have.

    Espn didn’t put them 19 and 20 they were 12 and 13

  117. The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman

    iserp: If you are going to start calling names, at least be a man and back your words. Define accuracy for a stat, and demonstrate that WP/48 is accurate as you say (through scientific method, predictions made from that stat compared to reality)

    You can, as I have, read the Berri books for the bibliography. I wouldn’t defer if I didn’t think that he, and his peers in his field, make the arguments well enough.

    I was alluding to the fact that we have people on this board who will make the argument “Carmelo Anthony produced a majority of 2003-04 Denver Nuggets’ wins because he is the significant addition to their franchise” when you have two or three returning players between seasons — and only one of them saw significant playing time. There’s absolutely no reason for that argument to be posted than to be upended. There’s nothing to it. It’s meaningless. A waste of time. A quick visit to Basketball Reference shows that. It’s misinformation. Misinterpretation. Whatever it is, it’s the sort of thing that lets Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay get max deals and dooms franchises to years mired in the lottery.

    Plus, I was saying that I myself am operating on an 11-year-old’s reasoning level, here. The name-calling is equally distributed.

    If you post garbage in public, someone’s gotta inform you that it stinks. That seems fair, doesn’t it?

  118. Spree8nyk8

    I’m really kinda stunned that the Melo hatred here goes so far that we actually have a debate about whether or not Melo was responsible for an increase in wins in Denver. Are you kidding me? Seriously? They won 17 games the year before he was drafted and never won less than 43 after that, and that was in the western conference. I mean I guess a hater is gonna hate but that is borderline ridiculous.

  119. ess-dog

    Spree8nyk8:
    I’m really kinda stunned that the Melo hatred here goes so far that we actually have a debate about whether or not Melo was responsible for an increase in wins in Denver.Are you kidding me?Seriously? They won 17 games the year before he was drafted and never won less than 43 after that, and that was in the western conference.I mean I guess a hater is gonna hate but that is borderline ridiculous.

    Instead of saying “the hatred” you should maybe say “the Cock Jowles hatred”.

  120. max fisher-cohen

    danvt: So, according to your logic, if you replace 2003-2004 Carmelo Anthony with Danillo Galinari, you still get a 26 game turnaround?

    Dan, This is essentially what happened last year. Chandler/Gallinari and Felton essentially replaced Anthony and Billups, and the Nuggets were the best team in the league in terms of scoring differential. Chandler and Gallo were hurt for many games and Mozgov rarely played…

    Now, I’m not arguing that Gallo > Anthony. What I do believe is that Anthony took options away from several of the other players the Nuggets had who were/are highly underrated: Lawson, Nene, Martin, Afflalo.

    I think the issue we’re having here is differentiating talent from real-world contributions. Let’s say I am able to make every shot I take with the exception of 18 foot jump shots. I never ever miss unless I take an 18 footer. Well, I am one talented mo-fo. I’m the most talented basketball player of all time. However, if I can’t control myself, if whenever I step up at 18 feet I can’t help but let one loose, well, my real-world contribution to my team is going to suffer.

    With regard to Anthony, his offensive talents are great, top tier, but his over-reliance on isolation basketball diminishes the team’s overall efficiency, as does his propensity for taking difficult shots. He’s still immensely talented, and many of the difficult shots and ISOs he did as a Knick had good outcomes, but these are unlikely to be sustainable. The only way he becomes a top-tier player is by adapting his game, by becoming a more team-oriented player.

    I don’t think, however, that it’s illogical to draft or trade for guys whose talent outweighs their real-world contributions because people can learn to be better decision makers. However, I do think more often than not, this hope turns out to be fool’s gold.

  121. Z-man

    I don’t have a problem with TFCCJNOG’s reasoning because he does undoubtably back it up with the stats most valued by many who do this for a living. However, at the end of the day, there is ample margin for error in predicting player development and performance. Melo can’t use any of his career stats to win games for us. The question is: can he help us win more games going forward than any players that were attainable in the time frame, given our situation? I see him as an enormously talented player who can dominate his position and any game with his talents like few others can. The difference between him and many of the others in the so-called top 43 on the WP 48 list is that he CAN become better, even much better. Can you say that about Zach Randolph? Tim Duncan? Even Dirk Nowitski? I think getting him was a decent gamble, based more on who he CAN be rather than who he was in Denver, which is still arguably a top-10 to top-25 player just entering his prime.

  122. iserp

    The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman: You can, as I have, read the Berri books for the bibliography. I wouldn’t defer if I didn’t think that he, and his peers in his field, make the arguments well enough.

    That’s the Scienciology way: “buy the book”. This is not a sect and I am not buying that garbage. If you think that book is useful, explain it in your own terms; and stick to the question. WP/48 is accurate? why? examples?

  123. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Yeah, the fact that the Nuggets got better (not just better but significantly better) after Melo left really does poke holes in the “somehow Melo just makes teams better” argument.

    Seriously, all you have to do is look at the roster of the Nuggets the year before Melo got there and look at the roster he played with. Cock Jowles posted them before. About the only good player who was on the team Melo’s first year that was on the Nuggets the previous year was Nene, who was a rookie the previous season. So to act like Melo just somehow made Denver a good team is not really a supportable argument.

    Melo is clearly a great player, but great players don’t just make their teams win due to some intangible winning talents that they have. They need to have good teammates along with them. Lebron didn’t have a winning record his first year in Cleveland. Jordan took plenty of time to have a winning team in Chicago. Kevin Garnett. Shaq barely broke .500 his first season in Orlando. They all needed their teammates to come up to their level. Melo was blessed to come into a good situation in Denver – they brought in a good point guard (luckily coming off his worst season so he was available relatively cheap) and one of the best defensive players and best rebounders in the NBA.

    That’s not a knock on Melo, of course. It is not his fault he had better teammates. It is just that “Denver had winning records in all the time Melo played with them” is not really some amazing accomplishment that he should be lauded for.

  124. Spree8nyk8

    Denver could have been better for any large number of reasons, not least of which could be that after playing with nothing but distractions for over 3 months they could finally just play basketball. Of course there is no stat for that but c’mon man, the Melodrama certainly hurt that team. Getting past that was a big deal. And yes they got a ton of talent in that deal, in the short term they probably got the better of that deal.

    Actually you know what I don’t even care. You can think what you want, personally I think you guys are only happy when it rains.

  125. Spree8nyk8

    I know that it’s appalling to think, but I’ll go ahead and trust the espn experts opinion that puts Melo at 12th over the opinions here that bag on him…

  126. Z

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):

    About the only good player who was on the team Melo’s first year that was on the Nuggets the previous year was Nene…

    Huh? Nene and Camby arrived in Denver together (as we bruised and battered Knick fans all know).

  127. ess-dog

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):
    Yeah, the fact that the Nuggets got better (not just better but significantly better) after Melo left really does poke holes in the “somehow Melo just makes teams better” argument.

    Seriously, all you have to do is look at the roster of the Nuggets the year before Melo got there and look at the roster he played with. Cock Jowles posted them before. About the only good player who was on the team Melo’s first year that was on the Nuggets the previous year was Nene, who was a rookie the previous season. So to act like Melo just somehow made Denver a good team is not really a supportable argument.

    Melo is clearly a great player, but great players don’t just make their teams win due to some intangible winning talents that they have. They need to have good teammates along with them. Lebron didn’t have a winning record his first year in Cleveland. Jordan took plenty of time to have a winning team in Chicago. Kevin Garnett. Shaq barely broke .500 his first season in Orlando. They all needed their teammates to come up to their level. Melo was blessed to come into a good situation in Denver – they brought in a good point guard (luckily coming off his worst season so he was available relatively cheap) and one of the best defensive players and best rebounders in the NBA.

    This, I believe, gives credence to the multi-star system being the viable route. If you have a top 3 player, I think you can get away with 2 stars (Shaq/Kobe) but I don’t think our star-power is enough to get us over the top as presently constructed (two top 15 stars.) Throw in CP3 and for sure, we’ve got a good shot.

    Btw, Vince Carter is going to be cut. He actually played alright last year. Any takers?

  128. d-mar

    Btw, Vince Carter is going to be cut.He actually played alright last year.Any takers?

    Um, let me think…NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

  129. taggart4800

    Cock Jowles, your clearly a smart dude right which astounds me when you seem unable to respond to peoples posts with some humility. It does not take a degree in journalism from the Trinity College Cambridge to ascertain that a blog posting may well be less well constructed than one might hope. This i a place to share and discuss your opinions and that of others. Educate do not preach and please do so with a little less inference that your fellow knick fans are less academically proficient than yourself. After all, insulting yourself slightly less than others is little better than when kids go ‘ No offense, but I hate you, no offense’. I love that you are knowledgeable on advanced statistical metrics, I have a lot to learn and enjoy discussing them.
    But ‘ I’m right, your wrong so nuuuurrrr’ is only going to irritate people.
    In response to @125. We don’t have the ultimate stat at this present time. We have stats that are getting closer and from what I have read we hve to change the basic data we retrieve from a game to alter our analysis. I learned this from you. However my comment about combining stats perhaps should have read differently. The stats we currently have, individually have little n the way of context. Looking at a players WS/48 is of little use if you don’t also appraise his USG%, MP, TS% etc. Combining is the wrong word. Synthesising would be better.
    I am fully aware of the statistical knocks on Melo, many of which I have documented on this stream. However to dismiss those that champion him is unfair. Make your argument for sure but do not belittle. After all there are a lot of well paid talent scouts in college and NBA as well as fellow players that have a lot of respect for Melo’s talents. The eye test is not often quantifiable but an awful lot in the upper echelons of the game have deemed Melo to pass muster. They can’t all be wrong.
    Rant over. I’m sorry. I just love the constructive debates we have and would like to protect them.

  130. JK47

    I feel compelled to once again point out some of the statistical absurdities created by Dave Berri’s flawed WP/48 system.

    Best player in the NBA last year? Kevin Love. That’s right, defensive sieve Kevin Love, who led his team to a mighty 17 wins, produced 25.8 wins last year according to Dave Berri. Wrap your head around that for a minute. Kevin Love scores better than Dwight Howard in this system.

    Never mind Melo as a top 10 or top 20 player– our very own Landry Fields is a superstar according to Dave Berri. He ranked 12th in the NBA in wins produced last year, mostly by grabbing some long rebounds, knocking down open jumpers when nobody was guarding him and standing around in the corner a lot. Landry scored higher than Kevin Durant, Paul Pierce, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams, Dirk Nowitzki… you get the picture.

    You might think Amar’e Stoudemire had a little bit to do with the Knicks’ resurgence last year, but you’d be wrong according to Berri. Amar’e ranks one slot below Luc Mbah a Boute at 126th overall, and below such players as Evan Turner, Rudy Fernandez, Carlos Delfino, Marvin Williams, Rodney Stuckey, and even Tracy McGrady.

    WP/48 is, um, to be kind, a little quirky. Arguing with a hardcore Dave Berri fan is a bit like arguing with a 9/11 conspiracy theorist. THEY KNOW THE TRUTH, DAMMIT. Saying “Tracy McGrady produced more wins in 2011 than Amar’e Stoudemire” is a lot like saying “The Pentagon was hit by a missile.” It’s an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary proof.

  131. Z-man

    I suppose someone should step forward once again and clarify between B-R’s WS 48 and Berri’s WP 48 (although Melo sucks by either measure!)

  132. Spree8nyk8

    We could pick up Zeus in free agency and someone here would find a reason that he wasn’t efficient enough with his lightning bolts.

  133. Z

    Spree8nyk8:
    We could pick up Zeus in free agency and someone here would find a reason that he wasn’t efficient enough with his lightning bolts.

    Diversity of opinion is a good thing.

    As far as this site goes, I find there are people who fall on all sides in all debates and almost everybody manages to bring something of worth to the table. We’ve had some pretty good talks here over the years about some pretty absurd stuff. Though I was never swayed by the argument that David Lee was the best player in the NBA (yes, we’ve had a few of those), I still learned a lot from the discussions. I wouldn’t want anybody to silence the minority-voice, anywhere, anytime.

    As for Zeus, I have no problem with that acquisition, as long as we don’t over-pay him.

  134. Jim Cavan (@JPCavan)

    The statistical analyses we have today are certainly more instructive than the archaic relics of the past. But there does seem to be a pretty intense affinity for stats (WS / WP) which strike me as being kind of tautologous. Then again, I’m new at this.

    As many have pointed out, a change in personnel or system can affect one’s WS/48 in either direction. As such, many believe Melo can / will improve his WS/48 – and his overall efficiency – under D’Antoni. He made some decent strides in at least one of those respects at the end of last season. Look at Ron Harper: His WS/48 shot up dramatically after Jordan’s return to the Bulls in ’95, while his per game stats plummeted. Why? I think we know the reason. Why is this important? Because the game’s “best players” – determining calculus aside for a moment – can skew the results. Yes, I realize that’s just one example. But it’s an instructive one: Perhaps more than any other sport, how “productive” you are depends mightily with whom you are playing. And it’s not always the case that throwing together dudes with high WP/48 works out, historically.

    Many of us have a knee-jerk negative reaction to the notion of Carmelo Anthony being “between the 25th and 30th best player in the league” not just because of the eye test – although that’s a part of it – but also simply because we’re fans. Past personnel transgressions be damned, we always hope that the next move might turn it around.

    As valuable as advanced stats are, you have to leave a little room to chance, circumstance, context, and chaos, if only to render the picture a little more human. It’s part of what makes basketball unique. If I wanted math and nothing else to determine the outcome of NBA games, I’d spend my winter playing 2K12. If I want a beautiful game that is at least as much art as science, I’ll watch the real thing. And if we end up winning a title with Melo and Stat, I hope we applaud louder than the numbers do.

  135. danvt

    The Formerly-Congenial Cock Jowles, #1 Gentleman: Seriously, is this board full of petulant 8-year-olds? Or am I the only one operating on an 11-year-old’s mathematical comprehension level? What gives, internet? What gives?

    Geez,
    Remind me never to debate with you again. I’m a petulant 8 year old because I think Melo is a difference maker on the court? Yes, I see that it was more than him. Yes, I want to learn what it was, if not only him, but, no, I don’t think Camby, Miller and “efficient player X” would have made as much difference. Again, I said it, if he’s not worth the price paid, we’ll see it, and I’ll admit it, but I haven’t been convinced of that, as you apparently have. My point is not so unreasonable.

  136. danvt

    and the basic idea of the post was that, despite the huge haul for Denver, I still wanted this guy, because, despite what I read here, I never saw him on a losing team. He has always been the best player on a winning team. I’ve seen a lot of guys play for NYK who I like but who never made a difference in the franchise’s fortunes.

  137. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Huh? Nene and Camby arrived in Denver together (as we bruised and battered Knick fans all know).

    Camby was hurt that first year.

  138. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    As many have pointed out, a change in personnel or system can affect one’s WS/48 in either direction. As such, many believe Melo can / will improve his WS/48 – and his overall efficiency – under D’Antoni. He made some decent strides in at least one of those respects at the end of last season. Look at Ron Harper: His WS/48 shot up dramatically after Jordan’s return to the Bulls in ’95, while his per game stats plummeted. Why? I think we know the reason. Why is this important? Because the game’s “best players” – determining calculus aside for a moment – can skew the results. Yes, I realize that’s just one example. But it’s an instructive one: Perhaps more than any other sport, how “productive” you are depends mightily with whom you are playing. And it’s not always the case that throwing together dudes with high WP/48 works out, historically.

    I think it mostly evens out in the end. Bosh and Wade, for instance, both saw reductions in their WS/48 last season even though they were playing for a much better team. I think it is fairer to say that players are affected by their roles. If you play a player in a role he is not accustomed to, he is not going to do well. If you play him in a role he is perfect for, he will flourish. To wit, Ron Harper as scorer – not so good. Ron Harper as complimentary guard? Good. I think the clear case is whenever you look at stats, to put them into the context of what happened that season. That’s why not even the most stat-conscious GM or whatever is going to say “oh, he has a better WS/48 then clearly he is a better player.”

    A good example would be Amar’e. Clearly, the guy has been living off of Steve Nash’s great passes for years. I mean, don’t get me wrong, Amar’e made Nash look good by being one of the best low post finishers in the game (the best?), but we saw that once Amar’e stopped having Nash to give him the ball, his TS% dropped. And when he stopped even having Raymond Felton getting him the ball and only had a backup point guard (who also loved to shoot himself) getting him the ball, his TS% dropped even further.

    So we don’t look at that and say “Amar’e's WS/48 were his worst in years, clearly, Amar’e has lost a ton of skill this year.” We instead say, “So long as he is playing with point guards who don’t get him the ball where he is one of the best finishers in the NBA, his TS% is going to be hurt a lot and therefore his WS/48 will be low.” If he was paired with Chris Paul, suddenly his TS% would go up and so would his WS/48. He wouldn’t suddenly get better, his circumstances changed.

    But clearly, the stats here are very important. They tell us that Amar’e needs to get the ball in certain locations to fully utilize his amazing abilities. They tell us how well that is being achieved, and how the Knicks need to adjust this coming season to get the most out of their complement of players.

  139. Ted Nelson

    Jafa: TS% and AST% tell a different story, will the Paul behind Magic and Stockton in TS% and behind Stockton in AST%. However, I am very impressed by Paul’s TOV%.

    Those are individual categories, not cumulative measures.

    My point was never that Chris Paul is the best PG of all time… but that one can make that argument for a 6 year period. If you don’t think one can make that argument, I don’t know what to tell you. The guy is ridiculously good.

  140. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Oh right. I forgot we traded Camby because he wasn’t durable. Who wouldn’t rather have “Steel Knees” McDyess?

    (yup. Still bitter, after all these years…)

    I still remember trying to talk myself into that trade. By the way, if the stats movement then was where it is now, the Knicks never would have made that deal. So go stats! Camby and Nene for a returning from injury McDyess. Insane.

  141. Jim Cavan (@JPCavan)

    @161

    All excellent points. I’m in no way suggesting that advanced stats aren’t valuable or important. Adherents have used them to win championships, so clearly they’re valuable and important. And as you pointed out in 164, our franchise would’ve benefited had it made more moves according based on something other than “in the now.” I’m simply arguing that a blind, feverish worship of them — such that you actually believe there will one day be the “one stat” that encompasses everything about a player that we value — can both seriously inhibit your enjoyment of the game and cloud your judgment.

    With respect to WP/48 in particular, proponents still admit that the cumulative / composite ends up being an average of 2.5 games off the mark anyway . All I’d suggest — and if I knew how to prove this out, I’d… probably not do it anyway — is that that 2.5 games difference, however the error’s parsed out between the players, might be magnified significantly depending on a change in teams, system, etc.

    But you’re right: Stats are getting undoubtedly better at capturing the past and present, and at anticipating which context — and which players — compliment certain players better than others. All I’m saying is there’s still room for error, and sometimes it’s OK to close the stat deficit between what you believe and what you see, with a little luck, blind faith, and chance.

    I think humanity will destroy everything and cannibalize itself before we find the “singularity” in anything. And if we see it on the grand scale, I’m not sure basketball will really “matter.” Get it? Matter?

    Boy that was dark, huh!? See kids, this is what happens when you don’t make it through calculus!

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