http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=howardw01&y1=2006&p2=randoan01&y2=2010

I know Howard is a center, so some of this is not particularly valid. But what stands out to me is the per 36 minute stats: Randolph averaged more points, blocks, offensive rebounds, assists, and steals; and virtually the same turnovers, total rebounds and free throws made. In addition, their PER is 0.7 apart. Considering that Randolph is still trying to find himself and seems to have landed with the perfect coach for him, I just get nauseous at the thought of never seeing what this guy can do while he is in a Knick uniform.

The more I look at this, the more I think that Gallo is the more expendable guy. DO NOT TRADE RANDOLPH!!!

A. He admits himself that his stats are a crude approximation and rely only on box score stats and equally assigning team defense. It is just not the end-all-and-be-all of basketball stats.

B. He is one guy. Believing his every word is as silly as believing every word Hollinger says and ignoring all of PER’s flaws to just take his word for everything. It’s like joining a cult basically.

C. It is extremely complex to break down the worth of an individual player. How much is a rebound worth vs. a point vs. a block vs. a defensive stop that forces a bad shot vs. a good pass that doesn’t result in an assist but does lead to a basket vs. etc. How much is based on a guy’s role on his team? How valuable is that role? Simply regressing team stats and then assigning them to players is too simple for me to accept as the end all and be all of statistical analysis.

I think Berri is every bit as valid as Hollinger, and maybe even more so. I think he’s a lot more valid than the consensus opinion out there. I just don’t look at his stats and say “this is exactly how valuable player x was last season.” I take them in with as much of the picture as I can digest mentally.

I’m not a HUGE fan of the “smell test,” because it implies that you have to conform to the consensus… I think this kills Hollinger: he focuses so much on scoring volume because people believe that’s what makes a player good. However, Berri fails it horribly…
-Mike Conley was the best player on the 08-09 Grizz?
-I find Kobe generally overrated, but is Gerald Wallace really that much better than Kobe?
-T-Mac was way above average in 08-09?
-Again, not a huge Melo fan but… Birdman Chris Anderson was 2X the player Melo was in 08-09???? Twice as valuable to the Nuggets per minute played?
-Shawn Marion was more valuable per minute to the 08-09 Raptors than Chris Bosh?
-Kurt Thomas was one of the best reserve players in the NBA in 08-09?
-Jamario Moon–who I do think is underrated–is a star?
-Q-Rich was around league average for the 08-09 Knicks?
-Most people here who are so high on Wilson Chandler would disagree with how pitiful a player Berri’s stat makes him out to be…
-Corey Maggette had a negative impact on the Warriors in 08-09?
-Troy Murphy was one of the best players in the NBA in 08-09? Over 3x more valuable per minute than Danny Granger? Better than any player on the Lakers? About as good as Dwight Howard? Yes, Berri’s WP/48 really ranked Troy Murphy as one of the best players in the NBA in 08-09.

Maybe some of those are in fact correct, but once you have a few ridiculous inconsistencies in player value it’s hard to take the system seriously. Something doesn’t work as a rule if it’s wrong half the time.

rama,

Those ideas are not uniquely Berri’s. Read Basketball on Paper, written by Dean Oliver. Heck… read Holliger’s Basketball Prospectuses.
It’s not that Berri values these things and no one else does. Everyone values those things. It’s assigning a certain value to each of those things vs. other things.

Thomas,

Randolph’s scoring efficiency absolutely IS a problem. A weakness and something he needs to seriously work on. Or he needs to shoot less. You don’t need 5 guys on the floor who score 20 pts/36 efficiently, though. You can do that. But if you have an Amare and a Gallo and a Douglas already on the floor, you can live with a guy whose value comes from defense and rebounding giving you only average scoring. You can have players complement one another and end up with the same results spread across multiple players that you’d get some one complete player.

The WS/48 on b-r.com are not Berri’s, I don’t think… http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

In 08-09, his 19 year old rookie season, AR was @ .137… Not sure where to find 09-10 stats, but he was pretty unquestionably better in 09-10 than 08-09…

So the Knicks being reported on his list is ONLY good.

Orlando being “top of his list”? Irrelevant. Yeah, of course he’d love to play with Dwight Howard. Duh.

New Orleans owns Paul’s rights and if they decide it’s time to move him, they will do so for the best package, and it’s going to take cap relief AND strong prospects to get it done. Which means, yes, the Knicks can compete, but if Portland decides they’re willing to move Oden or Roy, they can trump us easily, though I think there is too much collective delusion in Portland to move either of those guys. Not sure Roy for CP3 would really make them a ton better, or satisfy NO’s needs, but moving Oden would be an interesting gamble. Not sure Oden will ever have more trade value than he has today.

The Knicks have good assets — quality young guys with good contracts AND a massive expiring contract, so they are definitely players here. And you’d be OUT OF YOUR MIND to not give up Gallo or Randolph to get him. I can understand balking at both, but we are talking about a Top 5 NBA Player here (when healthy), and I’d probably move both. It starts to get sketchy to me if we have to take back long term contract in Okafor PLUS give up our best two young guys.