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Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Chris Paul Poll/Weekend Open Thread

How Far Would You Go To Get Chris Paul?

  • I'd give up guys like Chandler, Douglas, Azuibuke, Turiaf, and Curry is about as far as I'd go. (27%, 306 Votes)
  • One of Gallinari or Randolph, along with a few other guys. (27%, 301 Votes)
  • I'd trade Gallo or Randolph and take Okafor as well. (21%, 242 Votes)
  • Neither of Gallo or Randolph, but I'd take back Okafor (contract is $14.8M in 2014). (13%, 150 Votes)
  • Actually I'd consider both of Gallinari and Randolph, along with a few other guys. (12%, 127 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,126

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66 comments on “Chris Paul Poll/Weekend Open Thread

  1. Thomas B.

    What would you do-oooo-oo to get Chris Paul?
    Randolph but not Gallo, but if I had to take back the big contract, then niether.

  2. Caleb

    I know the consensus around the league is opposite what I’m writing here… but the Knicks have more valuable pieces than the Magic – I’d rather have Gallo or Randolph than either Jameer Nelson or Vince Carter (even if not more valuable right this minute).

  3. NYKjames

    Do whatever it takes to bring in Chris Paul. Even if you have to trade Gallo & Randolph, along with other guys, AND take Okafor. But obviously we should do whatever we can to try and hold onto Gallo

    And re-sign T-Mac!

    Chris Paul
    Tracy McGrady
    Danilo Gallinari
    Amar’e Stoudemire
    Emeka Okafor

  4. Loathing

    Hey Thomas B…the song fits!!!

    Not sure about Ofafor…maybe bring in a third team to take him…someone desperate for a 5…Utah? Philly? Toronto? Cleveland?

  5. Thomas B.

    WWDBD
    What Would Dave Berri Do?
    I finished Stumbling on Wins. Read it again on the plane. I love the book, it helped me understand what Obi-Wan told Luke “Your eyes can decieve you, don’t trust them.” What we think a player looks like and what a player actually does rarely matches up. It all comes down to how a player helps the team win. SO I say let the win scores tell us whether we should be interested in Randolph. Someone said that perhaps we could blame some of Randolph’s struggles on Nelson, well according to Berri, coaches have little to no influence on player productivity on the court. So throw out what Nelson did and throw out what D’antoni will do.

    Well Randolph’s WS/48 is 0.098 placing him near but below an average NBA player. Compared to Okafor’s 0.111, there isnt a huge difference. But consider that Berri finds that NBA players peak at age 24 (3 years from now for Randolph and three years ago for Okafor) then you could say that by 24 Randolph should have reached his peak productivity (Okafor’s peak WS/48 was 0.147, which he reached at 24 and matched at 26). Furthermore, Okafor’s WS/48 was lower for his first two years than Randolph’s. So if Randolph reaches his expected peak at age 24, you could argue that his WS/48 will be slightly higher than Okafor’s which would make Randolph a better than average NBA player.

    According to the Wages of Wins journal, Randolph would have to have a per of 0.200 or better to be considered a star player. I think that is a reach. I can’t find a player with Randolph’s first two year WS/48 that had a WS/48 at 0.200 or better by year 4 (I admit, I did not look for long). Kevin Durant reached star level by year 3. James by year 2 (James WS/48 of 0.399 at age 24 is just sick). In fact, of the players I did look at that became stars, Randolph’s shooting is far less efficient than those players at the same age and years experience.

    Anyway, I think Berri would advise Walsh to keep Randolph over Okafor. Okafor is three years past his peak, is a slightly better than average NBA player, and is being paid well above the NBA average salary.

    Randolph on the otherhand is a few years from his peak, makes below the average salary, and is only a somewhat less effective contributor than Okafor is today. So with that in mind Ted, I will adjust my position on taking Okafor over Randolph. However, if it come down to getting Paul-a player Berri could stop talking about-then Randolph will be dealt without question.

    So, does Randolph warrant the excitement that some posters give him? I’d say overall no. The most likely scenario is that his peak WS/48 will be something slightly above average but probabaly not star level. His year 3 and 4 production will help establish the trajectory for his productivity peak. And since he will be cheap for those two years, I think Berri would support keeping him on the team for at least the next two years, unless a team could get a significantly better player like CP3 (career WS/48 0.233).

    If Berri would like him, then I support it. But let’s not go nuts over a guy who is most likely to be slighty above average. A keeper and a guy who can help you win but by not an untouchable soon to be star. The thing that stands in Randolph’s way is his shooting numbers. Most of the star players in the NBA shoot well even if they arent known for scoring in bunches. Randolph’s TS is below the respectable .540 level and he will need to make significant strides to get to that point. Again, don’t blame Don Nelson and don’t think D’antoni will make him better.

    Really the only thing to be excited about is that we have a average NBA player who will likely become above average over a period that he is compensated below the NBA average.

    Please pick up Stumbling on Wins, it is a great read. I’m sure you will get more out of it and put it to better use than I, the least talented contributor to this fine site every could. I hope I got what Berri was teaching.

  6. fespinal

    I have been reading on Knickerblogger for quite some time but never felt urged to post until today. Not only are the articles excellent but the commenters are great and entertaining. The whole Paul-Melo wanting to come to NY has me excited, especially after being shunned by Robin. Here are my two cents on what we may be able to do:

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=29xku3z

    Would this even make sense? Obviously it assumes that Paul & Melo are forcing their respective teams’ hand but it seems feasable, or am I just being a delusional Knicks fan?

  7. Z

    Now that we have no cap space and are working on fantasy trade scenarios again, it wouldn’t really hurt much to have an expiring Jamal Crawford to throw into a deal. Or Z-Bo. Or JJ. Maybe Isiah DID have a plan for the summer of 2010!

  8. Robert Silverman

    Thomas B.: WWDBD
    What Would Dave Berri Do?

    I’m sick of hearing about Dave Berri and his system THAT EXISTS ENTIRELY IN THE THEORETICAL. If some NBA team hires Berri to compile a team of rebounders, then we can talk. Until then, he needs to STFU and realize that there’s a necessary regression that he’s discounting in NBA econ/stats

  9. Thomas B.

    Robert Silverman:

    I’m sick of hearing about Dave Berri and his system THAT EXISTS ENTIRELY IN THE THEORETICAL. If some NBA team hires Berri to compile a team of rebounders, then we can talk. Until then, he needs to STFU and realize that there’s a necessary regression that he’s discounting in NBA econ/stats  

    (Quote)

    One day at a time Robert. One day at a time.

    I take it you read the book and you do not agree? Fair enough. Maybe he is wrong, but I agree with him. So that probably means he is wrong.

  10. Mike Kurylo Post author

    Thomas B.: WWDBD
    What Would Dave Berri Do?
    I finished Stumbling on Wins. Read it again on the plane.I love the book, it helped me understand what Obi-Wan told Luke “Your eyes can decieve you, don’t trust them.”
    ….
    Please pick up Stumbling on Wins, it is a great read.I’m sure you will get more out of it and put it to better use than I, the least talented contributor to this fine site every could. I hope I got what Berri was teaching.  

    Stat Geek. ;-)

  11. iserp

    I haven’t read too much into Berri’s metrics. But as i see them, they are hardly valuable.

    I mean, they vary wildly from one year to other. And when a player changes teams, his averages also change (for example, Gasol was around .170 in memphis and .220 in LA).

    At least PER, with all his deficiencies, is something you can rely on, since it is usually stable.

  12. JK47

    I get the disturbing feeling that the Felton contract is
    going to keep us from getting Paul.

  13. TheRant

    I get the disturbing feeling that NO is going to send Paul somewhere it can get the best deal, like New Jersey. And then we will have to wait until 2012 anyway, when Paul can opt to go where he pleases.

  14. rama

    Why all the hate for Berri? Isn’t this a stat-based site? A month ago or so Ted was giving me a hard time about my argument for signing Felton – I said we need a decent PG and thought he made the most sense of anyone out there, assuming we got him at the right price (which we did). Ted said, don’t you know lots of people think Berri has no idea what he’s talking about? OK, then someone explain what the big weaknesses of his method are. I’m curious. (And I don’t mean someone who hasn’t read the book or familiarized themselves with his metrics.)

    From what I see, he values possessions (not rebounding, exactly, just posessions). That makes sense, because you can’t score the ball without having the ball. So rebounding is important, but so are fouls and turnovers. He values efficiency. That makes sense, because the more value you get out of each possession, the more likely you are to win. There are limited possessions in a game, and you want to do more with yours than the other team does with theirs. We’ve all seen Jamal get his 18 points…while shooting 22 times. We’ve all seen DWade get 34…while shooting 18 times. All the points DWade scored off free throws were possessions the other team didn’t get the ball. All the misses off Jamal’s many shots were potential possessions the other team had to score again (unless a great offensive rebounder limited those opportunities a bit, like David Lee.)

    I’m not saying there aren’t problems – for one thing, his analysis exists outside the real world, a world where DLee is probably a more valuable player to a team, but Amare is a star who can potentially draw other stars. CP3 wouldn’t be clamoring to come play with Lee, and that’s just the way it is. And of course, defense is notoriously difficult to measure, since it’s more collaborative than offense is. But I would have been really curious to see a team of castoffs whom Berri valued play together – Lee, Haywood, MMiller, Felton, and Childress. We could have had that team, and it would have been a fascinating experiment. Their win scores would project them over 50 wins, and most people would lookat that group and throw up in the mouth a little.

  15. Owen

    I’d give up my entire team and an equity stake in the franchise for Chris Paul. That said, Amare, Paul, and Melo is not a championship squad. Two out of those three guys are hugely overrated…

    Re the Wages of Wins, I think it’s hard to say much about Randolph at this point. He was well above average his rookie year, which is unusual. He was also really young. Last year he was injured, so you have to throw those marks out. Anything could happen with him. To me he looks like someone destined to spend too much time worrying about scoring and not enough time using his physical gifts dominating other aspects of the game. But anything could happen, I really have no idea. It’s hsrd to project young players. I do think its worth noting his college stats weren’t anything special, although his performance in last years summer league was.

    Re Okafor, he rates much better than .147 generally. He posted a .276 and a .208 in 07-08. He is on the wrong side of his peak though.

    As for Berri, people can make what they want of his stuff. Personally, I obviously like it a lot. Every year I watch the way team’s efficiency differentials move and most of the time it matches up extremely well with WOW based predictions, something I can’t say for PER. But it’s too nice a day to argue it.

    ISERP – PER is not more stable than WP.

    Also, Gasol posted a .259 in Memphis in 06-07, pretty much exactly what he has posted in LA since. The idea that Gasol blossomed playing next to Kobe is utter horseshit, pure and simple, although you hear it every time they play. It kind of drives me crazy. He had exactly the same ts% (59.3) that year as last year. The biggest jump in his offensive output came at the foul line. But basically, he has been exactly the same player in LA you would have expected him to be based on his play in Memphis, which is a better player than Kobe.

  16. PoeticRay

    Well if I was Gm of the Knicks. I would propose the following trade for Chris Paul. Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas, and Eddy Curry.

    The knicks get Paul and Felton to man the point. and then perhaps you can deal felton down the road for a true 2guard or if his ego can handle it, he backs up paul for two years.

    The Hornets get a two talented and young prospects in Douglas and Chandler, who both have cheap contracts that are close to expiring. Then they get eddy curry’s large expiring contract, and if he’s in shape, he would be a good fit in their offense, and its a contract year, so Fat Boy would be motivated by the change of scene and the push for a new contract.

    This also serves to free up minutes for Landry Fields to get on the court, as well as more playing time to spread around to our young fowards Gallo and Randolph. I consider both of those guys high ceiling prospects that could develop into perennial all-stars at best, and solid starters at worst. This trade in my mind is better then getting a washed up Vince and a undersized Jameer. With douglas you get a combo guard off the bench that can play the 1 and 2, and with chandler you have a versatile 3 who can play time at the 2 and 4. If Curry pans out you have a 1 year mercenary and trade bait to another team seeking cap relief in the future. Then they still have okafor to deal for more young assets to some other team. The trade worked on the trade machine. So what do you guys think?

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

  17. KNCIKS2010

    PoeticRay, There’s no way NO does that trade. They want to include okafor in the deal, and if they can’t and are purely looking for prospects, they’d be going for Gallo or Randonlph, or even both. Those are the types they want. A trade for Chris Paul will never come that easy, I’m sure if we were to acquire Chris Paul, it would come with a bitter taste of sorts.

  18. PoeticRay

    Hmm, you may be right, but the new gm and coach have close ties to the knicks if I’m not mistaken. Chandler and Douglas are young prospects. Chandler averaged 16 a game last year and will only improve further, and douglas averaged about 14 and 4 in extended play at the end of the season. He will improve on his play last year as well. The Okafor poison pill is just to keep teams from even wanting to trade for paul, if push comes to shove and paul starts acting out and causing chaos in that locker room, he will be traded. And again, the gm and coach are knick homers, don’t underestimate that factor. I’m not saying they’re going to gift wrap the deal, but if nobody swallows the poison pill, the knick get consideration. All that being said, new reports state that Paul wants to go to Orlando. Which may be why the knicks get him. Think about it, your star player demands a trade. the teams involved are Portland, Lakers, Orlando, and the Knicks. You send him to the first three teams, guaranteed success (as in championship contender) in those spots and with those supporting cast. Two of those teams are in the west, why rub it in your own noise four times a year, so no. the third is Orlando. Send him there, he might win a championship this year if you do that, that a reward for betraying you. So how do you stick it to paul for betraying you. You send him to the team that’s been terrible in recent memory and in the middle of rebuilding, the team with the least chance of winning a championship with him as an addition. you send him to the knicks. You send him there for whatever the knicks are willing to give you. Oh and we will be generous as we take their all-NBA PG.

  19. iserp

    @OWEN: basketball-reference puts Gasol’s WS/48 as .121, .138, .159, .184, .184, .155, .172, .129 in Memphis and .239, .223, .220 in LA, meanwhile PER looks more stable, around 22 in both teams. Gasol is the same player before and after; you can argue that he was used more efficiently in LA due to his higher WS, but then WS takes into account the context of the player, and then translates badly when you are talking about trading a player.

    I didn’t mention Kobe in my post, still wondering why did you say anything about it?

    Again, another example against Berri’s metrics. Paul Pierce, his WS/48 in each season from 2001 to 2010 is, .187, .157, .109, .182, .178, .142, .207, .164, .165

    It is very hard to read into that data, since he goes from good, to average, to good, to above average, to great, to good. All in all, it is clear that he is a good player, but is WS useful to compare 2 players? It is not consistent.

    Meanwhile PER was 22.3 22.7 19.4 21.8 23.6 21.7 19.6 17.7 18.2 It is much more consistent (even though you can see the effect of %usg on PER with the decline when KG and Ray Allen came to the team). At least you can try to compare players with it.

  20. PoeticRay

    Here’s a crazy trade scenario that gets the knicks the two players they covet, but at the price of most the team. I wouldn’t gut the team like this to get them. I rather roll the dice on free agency and get them both without giving up our guys. but check this out. Four team trade

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2cu7cf4

    That would be a wild one.

  21. ess-dog

    One thing that bothers me about Win scores (and I’m far from an expert so please correct me if I’m wrong) is that it doesn’t seem to factor in ‘playing time’ as well as PER. Meaning, the less minutes a player has played, Win scores are less likely to predict that players true value. Of course, being based on team ‘wins’, the system only evaluates that players contribution to that teams wins that season. So I see why this is the case.
    In other words, I don’t feel like Win shares predicts ‘potential’ all that well compared to PER. I do think that Win Shares somehow evaluates defense better than PER as defense is less an individual stat and more of a team stat. I guess my example would be D. Lee. PER maybe slightly overrates him due to his ‘soft’ defense while his Win Shares seem to fluctuate wildly early in his career, but give a more accurate overall picture of Lee.
    Again, these are the observations of a layman…

  22. Ben R

    Owen – What’s the bestsite to get win score data. Basketball reference’s numbers are always way off of Berri’s.

  23. etsuke

    I have much more knowledge in baseball that basketball, but after searching Berri on The Book Blog, I think that many statisticians and saberists have problems with his work. My impression is that Berri fails to acknowledge his flaws and truly respond to criticism.

  24. Mike Kurylo Post author

    Berri’s work is flawed, but so is Hollinger’s. I think to telling him to “STFU” is a bit rough. I’m not sure where the evidence lies these days, but I don’t buy that a player taking a lot of shots at a low efficiency is good for an offense (the criticism of PER). However Berri’s stat(s) are too based on team wins. Hence the great fluctuation between seasons. I think there is room for both of these stats (among others), but as Dean Oliver stated there is no Holy Grail for basketball stats.

    PER will overrate high volume scorers, Berri’s will overrate good rebounders and high efficiency (low volume) players (esp. on winning teams). But it doesn’t mean they aren’t useful and applicable.

  25. JK47

    Might the Hornets be interested in a deal where we take Posey’s contract instead of Okafor’s? It’s shorter and for less money, and we could actually sort of use Posey. Maybe a Chandler/Randolph/Douglas type package might get it done?

  26. ess-dog

    Mike Kurylo: PER will overrate high volume scorers, Berri’s will overrate good rebounders and high efficiency (low volume) players (esp. on winning teams). But it doesn’t mean they aren’t useful and applicable.  

    So are you saying that I got it backwards? I feel like PER wasn’t that kind to say, Rudy Gay for instance, but it’s hard to say – 16 PER or .096 win score – which is overrated or underrated? Maybe his PER is a bit more forgiving than than his win score (his win score somewhat resembles the Grizz winning percentage, go figure.)

  27. Robert Silverman

    Hey all – let me formally apologize for my anti-Berri, semi-crazed rant late last night. Sorry for lowering the level of discourse around these parts. Let me rephrase – I think Berri’s system has problems an a true “unified field theory” for basketball stats has yet to be unearthed.

    Again, sorry ’bout that.

  28. Thomas B.

    Actually Berri does acknowledge the limitations of his method of evaluation. In the book he talks about how Ben Wallace came up as the best play in the NBA under a particular metric due in large part to the contribution of his rebounding. Even he said, okay something needs to be tweaked here. The flaws is WS and PER an far less a problem than the flaws in raw data or worse, “how intense” a player looks on the court.

    I agree that PER is a problem as it overvalues volume scoring. I think efficient scoring is more important than high scoring (why I don’t have a man crush on Randolph).

  29. Eazy B

    To me, it seems that these trades vastly overestimate either how compelled New Orleans will be to give up Chris Paul. With Paul under contract for two years, it’s hard to imagine that Dell Demps is going to give him away in a straight salary dump. Let’s keep in mind that he worked for 5 years under the tutelage of R.C. Buford of San Antonio, an organization revered for its tempered and calculated approach to trades and signings (I’m choosing to ignore the recent Richard Jefferson resigning. Happened after Demps left the organization, right?)

    Though it is fun to point out the positives of players like Ronny Turiaf, Bill Walker, Tony Douglas, and Wilson Chandler on this site, it needs to be said that by and large these players are average with little reasonably expected upside. Within this trade, these players don’t represent more than Eddy Curry might. I’m not going to even touch the comment on how he might step up in a contract year.

    There is no question in my mind that we will have to eat Okafor’s contract and give up at least one of Gallinari and Randolph. Just think for a moment what you would do in New Orleans shoes and that your name isn’t David Kahn.

  30. blyss

    You guys forget the main reason the Hornets will trade Chris paul: DARREN COLLISON. He is an amazing PG in the making. He needs playing time to develop. They do not need Chris Paul any longer. By the way: that’s also the reason Chris Paul wants out of the Hornets. He does not need the competition.

  31. Owen

    Ben R – I always just troll the site for the info. I think though that some dedicated WOW’ers have set up an automated site for WP,or are trying too. Also, the WS reported at Basketball Reference is Win Share data, not Wins Produced.

    Iserp – Same goes as above. The WS on BR is Win Shares not Win Score or Wins Produced. Also, it’s nothing personal, I just hate Kobe Bryant. You didn’t make the argument that Gasol flourished because of Kobe, but everyone else does. And it drives me insane.

    At the end of the day, any box score stat will have issues. I have learned that through the years. That doesn’t mean they don’t tell you some very useful things. For instance, that Rudy Gay is a total waste of space. It’s amazing how he gets the credit for their improvement in Memphis last year with basically no change in his own stats. What about Marc Gasol? What about Zach Randolph playing as well as he did his second year in Portland?

    The idea of Eddy Curry stepping up in a contract year is laughable. Stepping up in a hot dog eating contest?

  32. JK47

    Even when Curry was at his best, he sucked. A starting C with less
    than 7 rebounds and 1 block per game? I don’t care how efficient his offense was. The guy has never been a passable player.

  33. KNCIKS2010

    @38…FALSE
    There is a reason the Hornets would trade Paul, and one reason only. They HAVE to. No team in the NBA (except the Timberwolves) would want to trade Chris Paul…no matter how exceptional his backup. Plus, Collison is still far from exceptional. And Paul is not afraid of competition, you can’t expect to be on a championship team without competiton.

  34. Owen

    Paul reported to be interested in going to Orlando. Putting him and Howard together would be a dream team.

    Collison was a scoring machine but it’s not clear to me that he is actually going to be a quality NBA player. To me he projects sort of like an Aaron Brooks. Still just a rook though…

  35. Ben R

    Owen – That makes alot of sense I always thought those numbers at basketball reference seemed off. I sometimes go to the WOW site for data as well but I assumed there was a database I was missing somewhere .

    Mike – Could you add wins produced and WP/48 and win score to the stats page next year. Though I am not a huge fan of Berri I think his stats are just as useful if not more useful than PER. I guess there is no good database for WOW stats and you could maybe be that.

  36. danvt

    You have to get Paul if you can so I’d do it as long as we could keep Amar’e. However, sometimes, what you can’t do is actually good for you. For example, not signing Joe Johnson to a max deal was probably a good thing for NYK, though we tried (I wonder if he regrets not coming to NY now that he sees what LeBron did?). I know CP3 is not Joe Johnson, but maybe having to take Okafur and then cementing our salary structure with that team only gets us into the playoffs but not to a championship level. Again, It’d be hard not to do it considering what we’ve been watching, probably impossible for Donnie to say no, but maybe it puts us short of our goal. Now, as it stands, we have money for a max player in each of the next two years, right? So, maybe, overall it’s best to get Melo in 2011 and Paul in 2012. Or we can get other elite level players at those times. As time goes on our leverage in deals improves as well.

    I don’t think we have enough to make the playoffs right now and adding Paul would change that opinion, but, maybe it’s for the best that we do this slowly and methodically. Wasn’t it impatience that really characterized our rebuild on the fly mentality and put us in this pickle in the first place?

  37. iserp

    @Owen: ahmmm, ok, i didn’t know they were different metrics. So… where can i look WP? And does WS have any relation to WP?

  38. Z-man

    Been following the conversation from afar, and basking in the glory of being pretty ambivalent in that I am excited for the upcoming season either way. I will say that if Paul winds up in Orlando, that would hurt.

    In a way, the prospect of building a team around Amar’e and youth is intriguing. Granted, The odds are that Felton is so-so, Randolph and Gallo fall in the middle of expectations, and the rooks and the Russian don’t give us very much to start, if ever. But if just one of the pieces turns out to be in line with most optimistic projections (and I think that guy is gonna be Randolph) and a couple of others surprise us (and I think that guy is gonna be Fields or Timo) then this team is gonna be fun to root for.

    I also think Chandler is gonna continue to surprise some people here. He is still very young and has improved every season thus far. He improved his shooting and shot selection in the second half last year. His TS% and eFG% improved last year despite a woeful first 1/3 of the season.

    So, if it is reasonable to expect at least a marginally improved Gallo, Chandler, and Douglas, a much improved Randolph, a Felton that is in line with last season, decent wing play out of either Azuibuke or Walker, Amar’e and Turiaf that are pretty much as advertised, and surprise rotation players in Timo and Fields, and most importantly, a wide-open trade and FA acquisition scenario whenever the perfect opportunity comes along, I am not that stressed out about Paul, so long as he doesn’t go to Orlando.

  39. ess-dog

    Gawd, all this ‘Zeke’ talk is giving me the willies.

    I’m ok with entering the season with Felton as the pg. It takes a lot of point guards a while to figure it out and/or find their shot. He’s a good distributor at least with great defense.
    What I’m worried about is the shooting guard spot. I just don’t know if we have a viable option there. I do like Chandler more than most, but he’s a small forward. He would be ideal taking 15-20 minutes off the bench. Walker is such a wild card right now. He ended the season well, but had a horrible summer league. And he really just looks like a 3 pt shooter at this point, not utilizing his athleticism. And his defense is suspect. On the flipside, draft pick Landry Fields had a nice summer league and could eventually be a great “glue guy” but I don’t think he’s a real shooting guard either – more of a small forward.
    I would feel a lot more comfortable if we moved Chandler for a draft pick or something and then signed Josh Howard. It’s doubtful we can offer Howard the money he’s asking though.
    I would also love to somehow trade for the rights to Xavier Henry since the Grizz aren’t giving him what he’s asking for/deserves. He wouldn’t start right away, but it would give us some hope at the position for the future.

  40. Z-man

    Because we have versatile bigs, especially Gallo, I am less concerned about the offensive side of the shooting guard equation. Between Chandler, Azuibuke, Douglas, Walker, Fields, and in certain situations, Gallo and Randolph (Rautins??), there are lots of options there, none of them perfect, but OK for now. I the right deal comes along for Chandler, OK, but I wouldn’t jettison him for a low-level draft pick just yet. At 23 years old, he is at worst an average NBA wing and a decent defender, and earns next to nothing for now.

  41. ess-dog

    Yes but by the end of 2010/11, Azu will likely be gone, Chandler will most likely be gone and Walker will be gone too. I doubt we will have the funds available to re-sign more than one of Chandler, Walker and Azu unless there are no other free agents we will be pursuing in 2011. We should be looking at Melo, Noah, Horford or others first.
    Maybe the competition will work out fine and a true front-runner will be exposed by the trade deadline, who knows? I still give Chandler a 50% chance of retaining the position by next Feb. with Walker having a 20% chance. I like Azu, but his injury was serious and it’s hard to say how much he’ll produce right off the bat. He and Fields are on the outside looking in. Rautins is way outside, needing binoculars to look in.
    We’ll probably see some combination of Chandler, Azu, Walker and Gallo at the 2 and 3 this year. Probably no minutes for Fields unless there’s an injury. Maybe Douglas a little at the 2. Gallo might play a little 4. Stat, AR, Turiaf and Mosgov ideally will hold down the 4 and 5. Curry will man the Jerome James Memorial Towelboy spot.
    That gives me a 10 man rot. with Felton and Douglas at pg.
    I guess that’s not bad. Either Azu or Walker could get bumped from the rotation. I’d feel better if Walker didn’t look so terrible and if I could be sure that Azu was 100%.

  42. massive

    Would Toronto be interested in taking on Emeka Okafor with their trade exception? They were a Chris Bosh injury away from the playoffs, and I’d say Okafor (at the 4, which is where he’d be next to Bargnani) is probably as good defensively as Bosh is offensively, and a better offensive basketball player than Bosh is a defender. And then we get Chris Paul by throwing around some young contracts and probably Fat Eddy.

  43. ess-dog

    Interesting interview with D’Antoni on Knicks Nite Live. Near the end he went into the “glut” of wing players, saying that many of the players were multi-dimensional: Randolph can play 3 positions, so can Chandler etc. Then he said that Amar’e could play at both the 5 and the 4, in that order. Good to know that Amar’e at the 5 is on the table. And he seemed enthusiastic about Chandler, but this was the first time I hadn’t heard him mention Walker at all.
    Lineup? Felton, Chandler, Gallo, Randolph, Stoudemire?

  44. Z-man

    @51
    Yeah, ess-dog, I am only talking about for now. In December, much of the mystery-based optimism will be revealed for what it is and we will be in a better position to evaluate how valuable each piece is.

    Obviously, you want to trade guys when A) their value has peaked and B) when you get max value in return. I would be very surprised if we can get less for Chandler in January than we can right now. In fact, the beauty of this roster is that there really isn’t anyone outside of Curry (and even he is an expiring contract) that doesn’t have trade value in excess of his contract. Maybe Amar’e and Felton, but they can’t be traded anyway in the short run. And all of our fill-in SGs are low-salary, easy to move guys.

    Back to CP3, you might say that our team is an even better position than the Celts were before they made the big trades…one star and lots of young talent. The Celts kept the right guys when they made their deals, we need to do the same thing. I just think we need to see these guys play for a month or two in order to decide who to keep. If the Celts had given up Rondo in getting Garnett and Allen, maybe they don’t get into the finals twice and win a title. Who is our Rondo, i.e. the guy or guys we just have to keep? Is it Gallo or Randolph…or both? Until we are sure of the answer to that question, any deal involving those two makes me queasy.

    Put another way, is Amar’e-Randolph-Gallo of 2010-11 be comparable to Howard-Hedo-Lewis of 2008-09? That Magic team made it to the finals w/o much in the backcourt (Jameer was out most of the year and playoffs; is Rafer Alston better than Raymond Felton? Pietrus better than the 3-headed monster we have at SG? Gortat better than Turiaf/Mosgov? I think we can be something like that team if Gallo and Randolph develop within reasonable expectations.

  45. Frank O.

    All the Chris Paul chatter is a bit frustrating and senseless. Of course, I’m as guilty as everyone else on that front.

    But I don’t want to think about it anymore. Until something actually happens, it’s just words.
    Chris Paul, like every star in the basketball world, is using the Knicks to drive up their stock and interest, not because of the Garden, but because of the NY media circus.
    We all get played.
    When something is going to happen, it happens quickly. The Amare thing was done quickly. The Felton trade happened quickly. The Randolph trade happened fast, too.

    Anything that takes longer than a few weeks likely isn’t happening.

    I may be wrong, but I also would like not to be insane. So, that’s my thinking and I’m sticking to it.:)

    As for the Knicks’ current construct, I like it, but there are an insane number of unknowns. In recent years, most unknowns broke against them and the fans, and the ones that broke for the Knicks and their fans (David Lee, for example) didn’t really affect the won-loss column to any great degree because of all the tinkering the Knicks did to get under the cap.
    It is almost certain that David Lee didn’t affect the overall won-loss record in any great way because he never had a set team, especially in the last two years when he elevated his game.

    Now the Knicks have an almost entirely new team, which will take some time to come together. That means we’re likely to see a fair number of tough losses early in the season. If things gel well later in the year we may see some nice wins, but it won’t be enough to take us over .500.

    Now, if Felton and Amare gel into a nice PnR team, and some of these outside shooters raise their game (talking to you, Rooster, especially at the foul line, you loser), Randolph turns into an effective shot blocker for the Knicks and Turiaf is a good 20-minute defensive dude and chemistry guy, then who knows?

    One thing is certain, law of averages are beginning to favor something good finally happening.
    My hope is that all the trades happen before the season, not during, so there is some stability in the lineup.
    Now, we sweat through August and into September, and then basketball gets going.
    D’Antoni has a team that is structurally sound. He’s got several players that can play several positions, which gives him a number of force packages that could affect a game’s outcome.
    The Knicks are going to pose some real match up problems for other teams, but their big questions marks are two-fold: can they defend the paint; and can they guard the boards.
    We know they will score. We know they will penetrate. We know they can run and probably play effective half-court.
    We even have a degree of certainty that this team will defend the perimeter much better than in years past.
    It’s the paint and the boards where we don’t know.

    Someone mentioned earlier, I think on this board, but I won’t spend the time to find it, that while you lose Lee’s rebounding, the trades the Knicks made actually improved rebounding across the board.
    So who knows? If we have a bunch of guys pulling down eight a game, rather than one guy getting 12 and everyone else getting 3-6, the Knicks might actually be a more balanced team.

    As for Curry, I think the guy has been a psychological mess these past few years. The further he gets from the robbery, the break up, and the death of a child, the better he will get…IF he’s getting help.
    This IS a contract year. Maybe he’ll play better. But even better isn’t very productive. He plays little D, rebounds poorly, too. I suspect he will play a platoon at center, with the Knicks probably running three centers out there on any given night. IMHO, Amare isn’t a particularly strong center, and is best as a PF.

  46. ess-dog

    Oh and btw, I fear for Curry’s life if he is shipped to New Orleans. Fried donuts every morning for breakfast would be the end of him.

  47. tastycakes

    CP3 trade talk: this is not free agency. Where Chris Paul wants to go is actually not super relevant, other than that he can say he won’t sign an extension with teams “not on his list.” That means teams not on his list may not play for fear of getting burned .. but some might take the chance anyway.

    So the Knicks being reported on his list is ONLY good.

    Orlando being “top of his list”? Irrelevant. Yeah, of course he’d love to play with Dwight Howard. Duh.

    New Orleans owns Paul’s rights and if they decide it’s time to move him, they will do so for the best package, and it’s going to take cap relief AND strong prospects to get it done. Which means, yes, the Knicks can compete, but if Portland decides they’re willing to move Oden or Roy, they can trump us easily, though I think there is too much collective delusion in Portland to move either of those guys. Not sure Roy for CP3 would really make them a ton better, or satisfy NO’s needs, but moving Oden would be an interesting gamble. Not sure Oden will ever have more trade value than he has today.

    The Knicks have good assets — quality young guys with good contracts AND a massive expiring contract, so they are definitely players here. And you’d be OUT OF YOUR MIND to not give up Gallo or Randolph to get him. I can understand balking at both, but we are talking about a Top 5 NBA Player here (when healthy), and I’d probably move both. It starts to get sketchy to me if we have to take back long term contract in Okafor PLUS give up our best two young guys.

  48. bnayden

    I firmly believe that CP3 will be a Hornet at the start of the season. I think the NO front office is smart enough that they won’t make a deal to make ORL the best team in the east for Jameer (always injured, small)/VC (shell of his former self)/Gortat. A team sincerely looking to rebuild would be much more open to the young talent the Knicks posess. I think Donnie will wait it out and hopefully when December 15th rolls around we can put together a package of Felton/Chandler/Randolph/Turiaf or something of that nature. That allows us to keep our cap flexibility for a run at Melo and create the Big 3 to challenge Dwayne Wade and his Miami Heat.

  49. Ted Nelson

    re: Berri

    A. He admits himself that his stats are a crude approximation and rely only on box score stats and equally assigning team defense. It is just not the end-all-and-be-all of basketball stats.

    B. He is one guy. Believing his every word is as silly as believing every word Hollinger says and ignoring all of PER’s flaws to just take his word for everything. It’s like joining a cult basically.

    C. It is extremely complex to break down the worth of an individual player. How much is a rebound worth vs. a point vs. a block vs. a defensive stop that forces a bad shot vs. a good pass that doesn’t result in an assist but does lead to a basket vs. etc. How much is based on a guy’s role on his team? How valuable is that role? Simply regressing team stats and then assigning them to players is too simple for me to accept as the end all and be all of statistical analysis.

    I think Berri is every bit as valid as Hollinger, and maybe even more so. I think he’s a lot more valid than the consensus opinion out there. I just don’t look at his stats and say “this is exactly how valuable player x was last season.” I take them in with as much of the picture as I can digest mentally.

    I’m not a HUGE fan of the “smell test,” because it implies that you have to conform to the consensus… I think this kills Hollinger: he focuses so much on scoring volume because people believe that’s what makes a player good. However, Berri fails it horribly…
    -Mike Conley was the best player on the 08-09 Grizz?
    -I find Kobe generally overrated, but is Gerald Wallace really that much better than Kobe?
    -T-Mac was way above average in 08-09?
    -Again, not a huge Melo fan but… Birdman Chris Anderson was 2X the player Melo was in 08-09???? Twice as valuable to the Nuggets per minute played?
    -Shawn Marion was more valuable per minute to the 08-09 Raptors than Chris Bosh?
    -Kurt Thomas was one of the best reserve players in the NBA in 08-09?
    -Jamario Moon–who I do think is underrated–is a star?
    -Q-Rich was around league average for the 08-09 Knicks?
    -Most people here who are so high on Wilson Chandler would disagree with how pitiful a player Berri’s stat makes him out to be…
    -Corey Maggette had a negative impact on the Warriors in 08-09?
    -Troy Murphy was one of the best players in the NBA in 08-09? Over 3x more valuable per minute than Danny Granger? Better than any player on the Lakers? About as good as Dwight Howard? Yes, Berri’s WP/48 really ranked Troy Murphy as one of the best players in the NBA in 08-09.

    Maybe some of those are in fact correct, but once you have a few ridiculous inconsistencies in player value it’s hard to take the system seriously. Something doesn’t work as a rule if it’s wrong half the time.

    rama,

    Those ideas are not uniquely Berri’s. Read Basketball on Paper, written by Dean Oliver. Heck… read Holliger’s Basketball Prospectuses.
    It’s not that Berri values these things and no one else does. Everyone values those things. It’s assigning a certain value to each of those things vs. other things.

    Thomas,

    Randolph’s scoring efficiency absolutely IS a problem. A weakness and something he needs to seriously work on. Or he needs to shoot less. You don’t need 5 guys on the floor who score 20 pts/36 efficiently, though. You can do that. But if you have an Amare and a Gallo and a Douglas already on the floor, you can live with a guy whose value comes from defense and rebounding giving you only average scoring. You can have players complement one another and end up with the same results spread across multiple players that you’d get some one complete player.

    The WS/48 on b-r.com are not Berri’s, I don’t think… http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

    In 08-09, his 19 year old rookie season, AR was @ .137… Not sure where to find 09-10 stats, but he was pretty unquestionably better in 09-10 than 08-09…

  50. ASyrett19

    Any chance they’re doing it just to appease Rose? He was really singing T-Macs praises the other day.
    Also, what do you think it would take to get Xavier Henry from Memphis? This could be a nice way to fill our hole at the 2. Walker and a second rounder or 2 maybe?

  51. JK47

    Glad the Bulls signed T-Mac. He’s been a pretty abysmal player the past three seasons and I don’t see him turning it around at age 31. I’m pleased he’s bringing his inefficient brand of basketball to Chicago. Hopefully they overpay him.

  52. Z-man

    Something in the back of my mind keeps telling me: do not trade Anthony Randolph, do not trade Anthony Randolph…

  53. Z-man

    Maybe it’s this:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=howardw01&y1=2006&p2=randoan01&y2=2010

    I know Howard is a center, so some of this is not particularly valid. But what stands out to me is the per 36 minute stats: Randolph averaged more points, blocks, offensive rebounds, assists, and steals; and virtually the same turnovers, total rebounds and free throws made. In addition, their PER is 0.7 apart. Considering that Randolph is still trying to find himself and seems to have landed with the perfect coach for him, I just get nauseous at the thought of never seeing what this guy can do while he is in a Knick uniform.

    The more I look at this, the more I think that Gallo is the more expendable guy. DO NOT TRADE RANDOLPH!!!

  54. ghost of Darko

    I live in the Bay & watch a lot of Warriors games. Anthony Randolph has a ton of athletic ability, a low basketball IQ and seems fragile physically and mentally. he’s young, so he could grow up. it’s gonna take a helluva lot of nurturing & cajoling from D’Antoni for Randolph to get there (and I don’t think that’s a D’Antoni strong suit).

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