Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, October 31, 2014

Carmelo Anthony, A Multi-Faceted Statistical Look

With the Knicks finally acquiring Carmelo Anthony, I thought I’d take a close look at New York’s latest All Star from a few different perspectives. In each area, I attempted to use statistics to lead the discussion.

WHO DOES CARMELO COMPARE TO HISTORICALLY?

A few years ago I came up with my own method of finding historical players that are statistically similar to any given player. My method looks at a host of stats, and I can tweak it to just look at players of the same age, or within 1 year of a player’s age. The purpose of this is get some objective perspective on a player’s career arc. I’ve decided to run both searches against Carmelo’s Anthony last full season

z-Sum FLName Year Tm PER
0 Carmelo Anthony 2010 DEN 22.2
0.075 John Long 1982 DET 17.4
0.075 Xavier McDaniel 1989 SEA 18.6
0.091 Dominique Wilkins 1985 ATL 20.9
0.094 Kelly Tripucka 1985 DET 16.7
0.098 Mark Aguirre 1985 DAL 21.3
0.105 David Thompson 1980 DEN 19
0.105 Eddie Johnson 1985 KCK 16.2
0.111 Billy Ray Bates 1982 POR 17.8
0.119 Junior Bridgeman 1979 MIL 18.8
0.127 Purvis Short 1983 GSW 17.6
0.139 Mitch Richmond 1991 GSW 17.8
0.141 World B. Free 1979 SDC 22.1

z-Sum FLName Age Year Tm
0 Carmelo Anthony 25 2010 DEN
0.075 John Long 25 1982 DET
0.075 Xavier McDaniel 25 1989 SEA
0.082 Dominique Wilkins 26 1986 ATL
0.091 Dominique Wilkins 25 1985 ATL
0.094 Kelly Tripucka 25 1985 DET
0.094 Kelly Tripucka 24 1984 DET
0.098 Mark Aguirre 25 1985 DAL
0.105 David Thompson 25 1980 DEN
0.105 Eddie Johnson 25 1985 KCK
0.111 Billy Ray Bates 25 1982 POR
0.112 Xavier McDaniel 26 1990 SEA
0.112 Purvis Short 26 1984 GSW
0.115 Danny Granger 26 2010 IND
0.118 Xavier McDaniel 24 1988 SEA
0.119 Bernard King 26 1983 NYK
0.119 Junior Bridgeman 25 1979 MIL
0.127 Purvis Short 25 1983 GSW
0.13 World B. Free 26 1980 SDC
0.133 Eddie Johnson 24 1984 KCK
0.136 Eddie Johnson 26 1986 SAC
0.139 Mitch Richmond 25 1991 GSW
0.141 World B. Free 25 1979 SDC
0.142 Richard Hamilton 24 2003 DET
0.143 Junior Bridgeman 26 1980 MIL

Compared to Stoudemire’s similar players, this list isn’t that impressive. Amar’e had multiple Hall of Fame quality players like McHale, Malone, Nowitzki, and Mourning. The most similar to ‘Melo seem to be Dominique Wilkins, Mark Aguirre, Xavier McDaniel, and Kelly Tripuka. All of them were high volume scorers with average efficiency and little ability to shoot threes. Aguirre, McDaniel, and Tripuka were borderline All Stars, with a total of 6 appearances among the bunch. ‘Nique is probably the best of all of ‘Melo’s comparables, and one of the few Hall of Famers on the list. From this evaluation, Carmelo Anthony isn’t at the same level as Amar’e Stoudemire or some of the other elite players in the league.

HOW GOOD IS CARMELO NOW?

In just about every other Carmelo article, the author feels the need to rank Anthony with respect to his peers. For instance recently New York Times author William C. Rhoden said “Anthony is one of the N.B.A.’s top 10 players and one of its most productive scorers ever.” It’s a strong statement, but does it hold water? Here are some of the NBA’s best players in first name order.

Amar’e Stoudemire
Chris Paul
Dirk Nowitzki
Dwight Howard
Dwyane Wade
Kevin Durant
Kevin Garnett
LeBron James
Kobe Bryant
Steve Nash
Tim Duncan

I don’t see any rational argument showing that Carmelo is currently better than any of these eleven players. He’s more likely is in this group:

Al Horford
Blake Griffin
Chris Bosh
Deron Williams
Derrick Rose
Joakim Noah
Kevin Love
Manu Ginobili
Pau Gasol
Paul Pierce
Russell Westbrook

Simply put, Carmelo isn’t one of the best players in the league. He’s more likely in the top 15, 20, 25 range. Hollinger’s PER has him ranked 22nd, and PER typically is favorable to players who score a good amount of points and ignores certain aspects of defense. Since Carmelo fits the mold of what PER values, it’s unlikely that Carmelo is underrated by this stat.

HOW DOES CARMELO FIT ON THIS TEAM?

This is perhaps the hardest to evaluate. From this article latke surmised that “volume scorers, if they don’t reform their ways, can be cancerous to SSOL (Vince Carter and Joe Johnson).” Granted in his article there are really only two volume scorers to go on, so perhaps this is a bit too overreaching.

Obviously the two areas where Carmelo and D’Antoni’s offense might have a conflict is in his ability to dominate the ball and his poor three point percentage. I don’t think there is a way to quantify the former, and I don’t think there is enough data to quantify the latter. For instance I thought it might be illuminating to see if player’s had their three point attempts increase when arriving in D’Antoni’s offense. But guys like Al Harrington and Larry Hughes saw their attempts increase prior to arriving under D’Antoni. Quentin Richardson saw his attempts balloon in Phoenix, but his New York numbers are about the same as his career averages elsewhere.

In essence I’m unable to determine how his effect will be on this team. Nor am I able to say at what rate Carmelo Anthony will attempt or hit three pointers, a vital part of the Knicks offense. ‘Melo has averaged anywhere between 24.3% and 37.1% from downtown. He’s only been above 34% twice, and he currently stands at 33.3%. Generally players can improve the rate in which they hit threes, but this isn’t true across the board. And given Carmelo’s eight years in the league, you’d think he would have honed in on this skill already. With most players you have a good idea on what their skills are, but this one piece for Carmelo Anthony is a big question mark. However with his career mark at 31.1% and his best season three years ago, the evidence falls on the doubtful category.

Kevin Pelton, someone with a little more NBA statistical expertise, has used his Shoene in an attempt to figure out how good New York will be. He has them as a 47-win team over a full season, but given the Knicks current record it likely only means a 1-2 game improvement over the remainder of the season. New York’s offense should be ranked 1st post-trade, but their defense will slide down to 23rd. Additionally New York’s improvement is given for all the players involved. Carmelo Anthony only represents 2.8 Wins Above Replacement Player, whereas Chauncey Billups is at 3.5 WARP.

INTANGIBLES

This is the one area where the Carmelo optimists seem to draw most of their strength. Unfortunately they are intangible because they can’t be measured. One such intangible is that Anthony’s high volume will make the rest of the team more efficient. Unfortunately there is no way to prove this. Granted the Nuggets are currently the NBA’s best offensive team, however how much of that can be attributed to Carmelo? Denver has 4 rotation players with TS% higher than Melo (Nene, Billups, Affalo, and Lawson). The year before Chauncey Billups arrived the offense ranked 11th.

In trying to show that Kobe Bryant wasn’t very clutch, Henry Abbott inadvertantly might have revealed that Carmelo Anthony might be. Clutch ability is thought to be a boon to winning playoff series, but of Denver’s seven playoff appearances with Carmelo six have been first round exits. So if ‘Melo is a good clutch player, it certainly hasn’t been effective enough to get them out of the first round more than once.

The last intangible is ‘Melo’s star power, which might not help the team on the court (save for the occasional whistle). Instead Anthony’s luminosity could attract other stars. Could he be the missing link between Chris Paul or Dwight Howard coming to New York? That would be a huge attribute, but of course we’ll have to wait & see.

142 comments on “Carmelo Anthony, A Multi-Faceted Statistical Look

  1. iserp

    Deron to the Nets it seems.

    Could have we offered the same package to Utah for Deron (switch Chauncey and AK) and then sign Melo in the offseason. We would have the big 3 right away.

  2. Kevin McElroy

    The most infuriating part about this is I doubt James Dolan even understands how badly he just got played. Prokhorov pushes us to give away the farm for Melo and then goes out and gets a superior player for LESS than he was offering for Melo. A masterstroke. I’m floored.

  3. Kevin McElroy

    And to any of you who don’t think Prokhorov masterminded this, the alternative is that your favorite team just got outwitted by Billy King. Which isn’t better. I feel sick.

  4. d-mar

    @2,3 Has D-Will also committed to signing an extension with NJ? Because if not, this is not the master stroke you make it out to be.

  5. Kevin McElroy

    d-mar,

    I think the answer to that is “no” which is a fair point but he’s signed through next year and they have the inside track. Plus they get to pay him under the new CBA so if they do extend him he’ll likely be way cheaper than Melo.

  6. latke

    Nice analysis, Mike. I think the similarity scores pretty much reveal the situation: Carmelo has a higher PER than all comparable players I’m guessing because, while his offensive efficiency and defensive stats are similar, he has managed to have that efficiency while taking more attempts. Here’s a comparison of the stats of some of the guys with the lowest z-sums. Anthony’s usage is tops by 4%. It seems this ability to get so many shots off without doing other things is what makes him a very special snowflake! — one whose value is very hard to fully quantify.

  7. Caleb

    I could be proven wrong in about 5 minutes but I’d bet he did not agree to an extension… Prokhorov is taking a big gamble that he can win Deron over in the next year (or be bailed out by a franchise tag). If that’s the case then it’s not apples to apples.

    Can you imagine what Carmelo’s trade value is, now that he’s locked up for four years and we could ship him to Houston or Minnesota or wherever? Not that I expect that to happen just yet…

  8. d-mar

    I also don’t understand why the Jazz would make that deal, I know he’s disgruntled and all, but they can’t do better than Favors and Harris?

  9. Dan Panorama

    This is an unmitigated disaster. Only hope is he hates NJ (they still will suck) and ditches for us but Prokhorov will offer infinite money with no hope for a trade to us no matter what Deron demands. Bad situation just became catastrophic.

  10. New Guy

    Over the weekend, I posted that we should be leaking to the press that we are working on a trade with Utah for Deron, regardless of how true it was. It would have saved us a lot of assets.

    Sadly, Dolan is a fool.

  11. d-mar

    Caleb: I could be proven wrong in about 5 minutes but I’d bet he did not agree to an extension… Prokhorov is taking a big gamble that he can win Deron over in the next year (or be bailed out by a franchise tag). If that’s the case then it’s not apples to apples.
    Can you imagine what Carmelo’s trade value is, now that he’s locked up for four years and we could ship him to Houston or Minnesota or wherever? Not that I expect that to happen just yet…  

    Not sure what will convince D- Will to stay, they’re a bubble playoff team at best next year, and they’ll still be in NJ.

  12. New Guy

    Kevin McElroy: Weird part is…why didn’t Utah try to play NYK for leverage? Did this really just develop in the last 24 hours?  

    They probably did but we were already fixated.

  13. Caleb

    @14 I agree and it’s basically an ego-driven, face-saving move by Prokhorov.

    hey, hate to be the voice of reason, but this is moot… we may “know” that Deron Williams is better than Carmelo, and would have much rather worked out this deal, but that is not mainstream opinion, and I’m sure it’s not Dolan’s opinion. If you had told him about this yesterday, he STILL would have done the Melo deal.

    And, Favors + Harris is actually a pretty sweet package. Maybe they could have gotten more, or maybe they’d have gotten totally stiffed next year when everyone knows Deron wants out. In the meantime they get a pretty good backcourt replacement and a rookie who has lived up to his #3 draft position…

    Favors>Gallinari (by a lot, when you know he has 3 rookie deal years left)

    Harris>Chandler (or even, at worst)

    I love AR and think he tilts the balance but Jersey’s offer is in the ballpark of what we gave up.

  14. latke

    Kevin McElroy: Weird part is…why didn’t Utah try to play NYK for leverage? Did this really just develop in the last 24 hours?  

    It couldn’t have been in the works for that long. Sloan retired just 11 days ago, and you have to figure it took the organization a couple of days to decide that they had to do something about the Deron situation, so I’m guessing it’s been in play for no longer than a week, maybe even less.

  15. taggart4800

    Yeah I just don’t get why Utah does this deal for the second best point guard in the league???
    If it is true the deal proves Dolan was the one running the show as this is how Donnie would have worked if it was all down to him.

  16. latke

    Well, Walsh seemed to really love on Felton in that press conference the other night, so maybe he didn’t see upgrading the 1 as as big a concern.

  17. taggart4800

    Does anyone think that Donnie knew and therefore pulled the trigger on the Melo deal fearing that Melo would join Williams in NJ. Thats why we gave up the house and its great work from the Nets front office.

  18. Jim Cavan

    While I hold out hope Deron will ultimately entertain coming to Manhattan, consider that he’s spent his entire pro career in Utah. At this point New Jersey probably looks like Paris.

  19. Dan Panorama

    To be fair to our big three hopes, if we had traded for Deron (and prob would have taken a Felton/Gallinari combo at the least, plus Utah could have traded him where ever they wanted so zero leverage), we would not have space to sign Carmelo this summer (who probably would have extended elsewhere anyway) and complete the trifecta. It’s at least possible Dolan poked at Utah and they said no deal under any circumstances. Would have had to put all chips on Dwight Howard in 2012. But still, yeesh, this is the best rationalization I can think of. Total fucking disaster.

  20. Dan Panorama

    Caleb: @14 I agree and it’s basically an ego-driven, face-saving move by Prokhorov.
    hey, hate to be the voice of reason, but this is moot… we may “know” that Deron Williams is better than Carmelo, and would have much rather worked out this deal, but that is not mainstream opinion, and I’m sure it’s not Dolan’s opinion. If you had told him about this yesterday, he STILL would have done the Melo deal.
    And, Favors + Harris is actually a pretty sweet package. Maybe they could have gotten more, or maybe they’d have gotten totally stiffed next year when everyone knows Deron wants out. In the meantime they get a pretty good backcourt replacement and a rookie who has lived up to his #3 draft position…Favors>Gallinari (by a lot, when you know he has 3 rookie deal years left)Harris>Chandler (or even, at worst)I love AR and think he tilts the balance but Jersey’s offer is in the ballpark of what we gave up.  

    Disagree on Favors, he’s more unproven than Gallinari and they have two good bigs already. But no disagreement their offer was way better than whatever we could have, so it might be moot.

  21. latke

    devin harris is good. Utah could still make the playoffs. Their real problem is they have three starting power forwards (kirilenko, millsap, jefferson) and no starting caliber shooting guards, small forwards, or centers. Eh, I guess Bell is acceptable as a SG.

  22. bbbb00123

    Hey, just an idea. Maybe we could try to get Brendan Haywood from Dallas? He’s not too heaviliy priced, and he’s a legit 7 footer. He’s shown that givien time, he can be a double double averager. Also, Dallas doesn’t really play him at all, and they’re always looking to improve. Just an idea.

  23. jaylamerique

    I hope their is no Franchise tag in the NBA cause all this off the court stuff is really interesting. I feel bad for small market teams though, they have no chance to compete

  24. Kevin McElroy

    Williams has an option for 2012-13 that is much bigger than the average salary he’ll likely get under the new CBA. If he exercises it that means at least 2 full seasons on the Nets (assuming no lockout).

    Also to close a loop from before he is not allowed to sign an extension until later this summer. This will be after the CBA expires so no extend-and-trade.

  25. jaylamerique

    bbbb00123: Hey, just an idea. Maybe we could try to get Brendan Haywood from Dallas? He’s not too heaviliy priced, and he’s a legit 7 footer. He’s shown that givien time, he can be a double double averager. Also, Dallas doesn’t really play him at all, and they’re always looking to improve. Just an idea.  

    that is a horrible idea. He is a slow center that just signed a five year deal that is 30 years old.

  26. taggart4800

    As the media are reporting the Nets did get better value than the Knicks, no question. But where they go from here is the real question. They will have to do some serious winning between now and 2012 to keep him happy and to atract another star or they may well have just given the knicks a massive edge in signing him. He will have already relocated on the Nets dime and then become disgruntled by two playoff-less seasons….. Risky in my book and certainly no need to panick for NY until they become a playoff contender.

  27. jaylamerique

    taggart4800: As the media are reporting the Nets did get better value than the Knicks, no question. But where they go from here is the real question. They will have to do some serious winning between now and 2012 to keep him happy and to atract another star or they may well have just given the knicks a massive edge in signing him. He will have already relocated on the Nets dime and then become disgruntled by two playoff-less seasons….. Risky in my book and certainly no need to panick for NY until they become a playoff contender.  

    If he hated Solan’s commanding style of coaching, he is going to hate Avery Johnson. that is not going to be a good pair

  28. taggart4800

    Utah must now be looking to save cash so in the unlikely event they would make one available why not take a swing at one of their big men? Okur? 10 mill 2 years?

  29. endyendy

    I don’t think this changes much, other than making a sign and trade more difficult. He’s infinitely better than Harris but I don’t see him carrying that team anywhere, and if he truly wants to be a Knick the option is still there. I don’t mean to be insulting, but no one wants to play in Jersey. Maybe they can sell him on Brooklyn if they grab someone else to put alongside him, but I don’t know who that someone would be.

    I’ve always had the vibe they were more interested in CP3, but maybe that’s just “the toast” talking. Regardless, aside from Paul’s recent injury I don’t think there’s much room to complain if we end up with one or the other.

  30. dubisaweapon

    “One such intangible is that Anthony’s high volume will make the rest of the team more efficient. Unfortunately there is no way to prove this.”

    Nate Silver took an interesting stab at proving this here:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/why-carmelo-anthony-is-the-ultimate-team-player-and-what-advanced-stats-miss-about-him/

    In comparing the TS% of each player on the Nuggets with and without Carmelo on the floor, Silver does locate some data that supports the idea that Melo’s high-volume leads to increased efficiency of those around him. We can only hope that the Fields, Stoudemire, etc. experience a similar increase.

  31. jaylamerique

    The funny thing about these deals is that Houston still can’t get a star player. The draft picks we traded to them last year are basically worthless since the knicks are decent now. + they dont even want Jordan Hill anymore. Dorell Morey is a real genius isn’t he

  32. massive

    I’m very upset that the Nets get Deron Williams and Brandon Wright for 3 rotation players. The Knicks get screwed with Melo while giving up 1/2 the rotation? James Dolan needs to be removed from the Knicks. Why couldn’t he have sold the team to Prokhrov last season?

  33. DS

    Are we assuming Utah would have taken the package the Knicks gave up for ‘Melo in exchange for Deron?? I don’t think you can assume that at all. I bet Utah would prefer Favors, Harris, and 2 draft picks.

    Maybe the Nets will take Melo for Deron?? We could slide Billups to the 2 and Landry to the 3… OK, I’ll just stop. :)

  34. Owen

    Deron is a ton better than Carmelo.

    I think the Nets paid a pretty steep price to get him, given that their draft picks should be in the lottery. But that said, it’s a gigantic win for Prokhorov. He got a better player than the Knicks and made Dolan look like a fool (which isn’t hard granted.) That counts for something with the Nets moving to Brooklyn.

  35. DS

    Owen: He got a better player than the Knicks and made Dolan look like a fool (which isn’t hard granted.)

    I like the Nets trade and dislike the Knicks trade, but why is everyone assuming that the two are somehow related?

  36. massive

    DS:
    I like the Nets trade and dislike the Knicks trade, but why is everyone assuming that the two are somehow related?  

    Because if the Nets didn’t press so hard in the closing hours the Knicks would still have Gallo and Mozgov. The reason they traded all of those pieces because it was believed that the Nets were going to make that deal without Anthony’s extension, forcing Dolan into a panic mode, which ultimately led to us caving in at the deadline. Prokhrov had to have had this deal up his sleeve the entire time. Trading your franchise player isn’t a decision you make in 24 hours.

  37. Owen

    “I like the Nets trade and dislike the Knicks trade, but why is everyone assuming that the two are somehow related?”

    Why wouldn’t they be related? Two players got traded at the same time right? Clearly we could have put a bid in….

  38. jaylamerique

    Owen: “I like the Nets trade and dislike the Knicks trade, but why is everyone assuming that the two are somehow related?”Why wouldn’t they be related? Two players got traded at the same time right? Clearly we could have put a bid in….  

    but there package was better, so we probably would’nt have gotten him.

  39. iserp

    Dan Panorama: To be fair to our big three hopes, if we had traded for Deron (and prob would have taken a Felton/Gallinari combo at the least, plus Utah could have traded him where ever they wanted so zero leverage), we would not have space to sign Carmelo this summer (who probably would have extended elsewhere anyway) and complete the trifecta. It’s at least possible Dolan poked at Utah and they said no deal under any circumstances. Would have had to put all chips on Dwight Howard in 2012. But still, yeesh, this is the best rationalization I can think of. Total fucking disaster.  

    AK is expiring, if you include him like instead of billups, we would have had the space.

    DS: I like the Nets trade and dislike the Knicks trade, but why is everyone assuming that the two are somehow related?

    Well, i think we gave too much for Melo, but i don’t think that would have been too much for Deron. And i believe we would have had close to the max this summer to sign Melo, which undoubtedly would sign here for a big 3.

    Ok, Utah would have had to accept our deal; but even if we didn’t, why didn’t the Nets and Knicks talked openly about dealing for Deron. Denver and Utah would have fighted for the better package between the Knicks and the Nets and that would have lowered their asking price.

  40. ess-dog

    I like the trade for Utah ultimately. Favors/Milsap is a short but really strong frontcourt. Maybe they keep AK47 at the 3 for a few years. Maybe they flip Al Jefferson for Mayo or Courtney Lee? Harris can ably man the pg spot and they can draft a good point over the next 2 years. They are a rootable team.

  41. jaylamerique

    massive:
    Because if the Nets didn’t press so hard in the closing hours the Knicks would still have Gallo and Mozgov. The reason they traded all of those pieces because it was believed that the Nets were going to make that deal without Anthony’s extension, forcing Dolan into a panic mode, which ultimately led to us caving in at the deadline. Prokhrov had to have had this deal up his sleeve the entire time. Trading your franchise player isn’t a decision you make in 24 hours.  

    c’mon we werent getting Anthony by just trading chandler. that package was on the table for the whole season and denver never took it.

  42. Ben R

    I think the Nets trade kinda overshawdowed the article.

    I really liked the write up Mike, it confirms everything I believed and everytime I start to come to terms with this horrible situation I dig deeper and get worried again. Now with this Nets trade it’s like I just found out about the Melo trade all over again.

  43. John Kenney

    The past week may have destroyed our chance at a championship. We need to trust in CP3’s knee and desire to come here? Two things I’m not comfortable trusting.

  44. Frank

    It’s a great move for the Nets but it could COMPLETELY blow up in their faces if they can’t get Deron to sign an extension. Then they will have traded what could be 3 high lottery picks for 1 year of possible playoff contention.

    At the end of the day – when Deron needs to make the decision whether or not to activate his ETO, the Nets will have finished up another year in Newark with a team that is probably still not a playoff team, or at least one that will get blown out in the 1st round by whoever they play. Whatever extension he may be mulling over will be under the new CBA so it seems unlikely that he would be losing THAT much money by leaving as a free agent. And the only guy on his team with any talent is 6 rebound/game Brook Lopez.

    This seriously is a risky and possibly brilliant move, but could really blow up in their faces.

    (like the Melo trade for us). Except that we are the NYK and they are the Nets.

  45. Frank

    And can you imagine how horrible opening up the new Brooklyn arena might be if Deron walks right before it opens?

  46. endyendy

    John Kenney: The past week may have destroyed our chance at a championship. We need to trust in CP3?s knee and desire to come here? Two things I’m not comfortable trusting.  

    Deron Williams just got traded to one of the worst teams in the league and has to play in Newark. If I were taking bets, I’d say he was more likely to sign an extension in Utah next summer than he will be to sign one for Jersey.

  47. Ben R

    I am starting to doubt Favors’ real potential. He is very young and seems to be putting up decent numbers but teams do not look to trade top 3 picks that are under 20 unless there is something the Nets know that no one else knows. I mean NJ seemed really willing to move him. You just wouldn’t see that if NJ thought they had a Blake Griffin or John Wall kinda talent.

  48. tastycakes

    Punked by the Nets. I’m in disbelief. They got a better player, giving up less, and for a smaller financial commitment. WTF!!!

    I’d rather have D-Will over Melo any day of the week.

    I don’t get the Favors love — that guy has shown close to nothing in his career thus far. Or the Devin Harris love, the guy is a MOR point guard AT BEST in this league (just like the guy we just sent packing, whats-his-name).

    Questionable trade by the Jazz. The first rounders are nice, but they couldn’t do better? Man, they really really didn’t want their own Melodrama ..

  49. Ben R

    Getting traded to NJ seems like perfect Karma for squeezing out one of the greatest coaches in nba history.

  50. ess-dog

    In case anyone’s interested:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p2=willide01&y2=2011&p3=anthoca01&y3=2011

    Yes, Deron is the better player. Yet surprisingly worse defensively. Oh well, CP3 is probably a better fit. Too bad we won’t have the space to get him.

    I’m not as anti Anthony as some, but what concerns me most is that Denver has actually had a really good team for a while now and hasn’t gotten it done with Melo. Nene’s not quite the star player that Amare is, but efficiency wise, he’s as good or better. He rebounds well and defends although he seems to be going downhill a bit. Chauncey is better offensively than Ray and only a bit worse on defense, so that’s a win for Denver. Afflalo is very close to the player Fields is. Maybe a slight edge to Fields. K-mart has been fairly bad lately but was ok for a while and Birdman has been pretty good as a back up until recently. That’s probably about even with Turiaf/Moz. Really Denver just got too old and missed their window. The redonkulous signing of Al Buckets was the final nail in the coffin. Now all the Knicks can hope for is that having two high volume scorers on the same team will somehow improve them both and the rest of their teammates but I’m not sure why that would necessarily happen.

  51. tastycakes

    Maybe the Nets are hoping there is some kind of Franchise Tag in the new CBA, so they can force Williams to play for them for the rest of his career.

    (I really hope they don’t do the franchise thing, FWIW)

  52. d-mar

    All reports seem to indicate that D-Will is really pissed about this trade. So now it’s up to NJ to make him happy in the next season and a half. That is a HUGE challenge, and really the only thing they have to sell is Brooklyn and more cap room and the promise of someone like Dwight Howard (who I’m convinced will never play in the Northeast). So before we start enshrining Billy King et all into the NBA management hall of fame and talking about how bad this makes the Knicks look, let’s see where D-Will is playing in 2012-2013. The Knicks have a star locked up for 3 years and the Nets don’t, that’s a pretty significant thing. Not saying the Nets shouldn’t have done the deal BTW, they had to.

  53. Ben R

    Are we even trying to make another move this year? We have a one and a half year window before the clock runs out on this team we need to make a move for another big man. That package of Wright and Gadzaric would have helped us alot, or Murphy, or Haywood, Okur, Okafor, anybody. If we really expect to make even a little noise in the playoffs this year we need size badly.

  54. DS

    OK, now that they’re gone I can say this and its less blasphemous.

    – Devin Harris is more proven than Ray Felton
    – Derrick Favors is the youngest player in the NBA and thus may have a higher upside than Gallo
    – 2 Nets 1st round picks is better than Mozgov and Chandler coming into a free agency year.
    – Randolph is a nice ace in the hole but you can’t hinge your future plans on the idea that he’ll mature.

    In summary, the Nets gave up more and were able to haul in more than the Knicks. Yes, the Knicks could have played it smarter with Denver. Or if Denver and the Nets made a deal then maybe the Knicks could have given up less than they gave to Denver and gotten Deron but there is no guarantee that Utah would’ve done that – and for those who wanted ‘Melo as a FA this summer, he would have been gone.

    In summary, I’m not sure you can say the Nets played the Knicks. Denver did, sure.

  55. Caleb

    Now that I hear they threw in two 1st round picks I don’t like that deal at all… it’s ok if Williams sticks around more than a year but I’d lay those odds 50-50 at best. There are no big-ticket FAs this summer… Brook Lopez is what he is… next year’s Nets are not gonna be that much better than this year’s version. (with Williams, that is). Will he be excited to re-up?

    You never know, but it is huge risk. I read somewhere that he is from San Diego… you’d think the Clippers would be an attractive location. And the Knicks would be a lure, for sure.

  56. Frank

    d-mar: All reports seem to indicate that D-Will is really pissed about this trade. So now it’s up to NJ to make him happy in the next season and a half. That is a HUGE challenge, and really the only thing they have to sell is Brooklyn and more cap room and the promise of someone like Dwight Howard (who I’m convinced will never play in the Northeast). So before we start enshrining Billy King et all into the NBA management hall of fame and talking about how bad this makes the Knicks look, let’s see where D-Will is playing in 2012-2013. The Knicks have a star locked up for 3 years and the Nets don’t, that’s a pretty significant thing. Not saying the Nets shouldn’t have done the deal BTW, they had to.  

    Knicks actually have Melo locked up for 4 years — he voids his ETO so is under his old contract 2011-2012, then adds 3 more years via the extension.

    No way Dwight Howard decides to go play for NJ. If Knicks can offer anywhere near max money, would you rather play for the Nets or for the Knicks? In fact, there is no way that anyone will go play for the Nets.

    Meanwhile – as much as I love D-Will, he has played with an excellent surrounding cast and a HOF coach for his whole career. Is he going to be as good passing to Travis Outlaw and Johan Petro with little general screaming at him during every timeout?

    Here’s my pipe dream – D-Will’s stats take a huge hit in NJ. He’s miserable there and wants out. Poor play in NJ drop his price. Signs with NYK in 2012 for just less than the max.

  57. John Kenney

    Nets got the better player after making us pay more for the worse one than we would have had to otherwise.
    Nets played us.

  58. Brian Cronin

    The Nets almost certainly did “play” the Knicks, (if only in the sense that they got involved in the Melo deal specifically to at the very least drive up the Knicks’ price) but in the end it might very well not matter. Heck, Williams already is pissed about the trade and I find it hard to believe he’ll be any happier in a year, and it should be a lot easier to walk away from a team he’s played for for a year than a team he played for his entire career (and who actually fired their longtime Hall of Fame coach to appease him).

    What must Sloan be thinking? Do you think he’s actually happy about avoiding a rebuilding team?

  59. endyendy

    John Kenney: Nets got the better player after making us pay more for the worse one than we would have had to otherwise.
    Nets played us.  

    Nets got a better player on a worse team with no promise that said player will stay for more than a season.

    Also, this came out of nowhere. We have no idea if the Knicks made any offers to the Jazz for Williams and the Jazz, not being in the “hostage” situation Denver is in, decided they didn’t like the Knicks offer.

  60. Caleb

    Meanwhile, the Jazz – who were going to miss the playoffs this year even with their superstar, are about to rebuild in the fly, in style.

    Given that, they could try and move Kirilenko’s huge expiring deal for someone good.

    And Al Jefferson ain’t working out for them, but he’s still pretty good and would have a lot of value, I’m sure.

  61. Brian Cronin

    Apparently Nate and David Lee might be reuniting.

    Who would the Celtics want on the Warriors’ roster, though? They would love to get Wright, but they couldn’t get him with just Nate. So I have no idea what they’re looking for.

    While it would suck for Nate to leave a great team like the Celtics (especially one with two guards who play as much as Ellis and Curry – who are both short, too), Golden State is at least near Nate’s hometown.

  62. John Kenney

    I understand that he might hate it there and want to leave. But all in all, I’d rather have the player the Nets got than the one we got, AND the Nets drove up the price for the player we got. It’s not that I think the Nets are now somehow better than us or will be able to draw free agents or anything like that. And of course, if we now signed Dwill away from them in 2012 that would be an awesome move on our part. But today is a net Nets win folks.

  63. Caleb

    Or, if they want, next year the Jazz could trade Favors or this year’s top-5 pick, plus Al Jefferson and Harris’ expiring deal… that would be the winning package in pretty much any trade that comes up in the next year. It will always be an issue getting players to sign or extend in Utah, but someone who wants to… or who is locked up 3-4 years… the Jazz will be the go-to team.

  64. Ben R

    Caleb – how good would the Clippers look if they could grab Williams or Paul in 2012. Man that would be an impressive team. They should have room for a max contract in 2012 even after resigning Jordan.

  65. jon abbey

    you guys are crazy to applaud that NJ deal this much without an extension, to me it just makes it decidedly more likely that Amare and Melo can wine and dine Williams on their overlapping off days in NYC.

    I think it’s a great potential development for the Knicks, don’t forget that Williams’ deal expires before NJ goes to Brooklyn, so he will only be playing in that dead arena in Newark.

  66. John Kenney

    Also, if we didn’t make an offer, that’s idiotic on our part, and if we did, why wouldn’t we float it in the media.

  67. Brian Cronin

    I understand that he might hate it there and want to leave. But all in all, I’d rather have the player the Nets got than the one we got, AND the Nets drove up the price for the player we got. It’s not that I think the Nets are now somehow better than us or will be able to draw free agents or anything like that. And of course, if we now signed Dwill away from them in 2012 that would be an awesome move on our part. But today is a net Nets win folks.

    I don’t think the Knicks could have gotten Williams with what got them Carmelo. I think the Jazz are much more interested in the picks and the young Favors than anyone in the Knick offer.

  68. Mulligan

    So now Deron won’t have to move when he switches to the Knicks in 2012. Imagine what it’ll be like for him to visit MSG and then go back to playing in Newark… that’s a recruiting pitch in and of itself. Plus, he’s going to be living in proximity of Melo and STAT, and when he goes out, you know he’s going out in Manhattan. Finally, he’s going to hate playing for the Nets. Not only do they suck (and PG was arguably their strongest position to begin with, so I doubt they improve that much with just Deron), but their coach is a notorious pain in the ass when it comes to PG’s.

    All of Prokhorov’s moves seem to be about bluster and immediate impact, with little thought about the future…

  69. tastycakes

    DS: OK, now that they’re gone I can say this and its less blasphemous.
    – Devin Harris is more proven than Ray Felton
    – Derrick Favors is the youngest player in the NBA and thus may have a higher upside than Gallo
    – 2 Nets 1st round picks is better than Mozgov and Chandler coming into a free agency year.
    – Randolph is a nice ace in the hole but you can’t hinge your future plans on the idea that he’ll mature.In summary, the Nets gave up more and were able to haul in more than the Knicks. Yes, the Knicks could have played it smarter with Denver. Or if Denver and the Nets made a deal then maybe the Knicks could have given up less than they gave to Denver and gotten Deron but there is no guarantee that Utah would’ve done that – and for those who wanted ‘Melo as a FA this summer, he would have been gone.In summary, I’m not sure you can say the Netsplayed the Knicks. Denver did, sure.  

    I’m sorry, but you’re being very generous to the Nets offer in the way you’re looking at things here.

    You’re saying that you would trade Felton, Gallo, Chandler, Mozgov, AR, Curry’s bloated corpse, a 1st, and 2 seconds for Harris, Favors, and 2 1sts. You would do that trade? Seriously???

    I wouldn’t trade for that “haul” unless I was rebuilding and wanted to gamble on the Nets 1st rounders. Which, it seems, is the Jazz strategy ATM.

    Goddamnit, I was seriously trying to relax and hopefully enjoy Melo’s debut tonight, hoping for the best, but this sort of thing is infuriating.

  70. DS

    The Knicks choices were:
    1) Get ‘Melo now
    2) Keep the roster as is wait until this summer

    I think they should have taken #2. Either way, Deron would be gone to NJ. And if Dolan wasn’t involved or the Nets hadn’t applied pressure maybe we wouldn’t have gotten screwed out of Mozgov and possibly Chandler.

    So I guess we got “played” out of those 2 guys.

  71. endyendy

    John Kenney: Also, if we didn’t make an offer, that’s idiotic on our part, and if we did, why wouldn’t we float it in the media.  

    Could be the Jazz stated plainly that any leaks would end a possible deal. If the player himself is shocked the day of the trade, a superstar player no less, it shows they did a pretty good job of keeping the talks under wraps. I suppose it’s entirely possible the Nets just called the Jazz last night, but usually a deal for someone like Williams wouldn’t get done this fast.

  72. dubisaweapon

    John Kenney: We just got completely outplayed.  

    Prokhorov is scoring major points this week. First, he forces us to gut out roster to get Melo, and now he’s stealing all of the headlines by inking this deal with the Jazz. It remains to be seen if he can get DWill to sign that extension, but he’s certainly waging a successful PR campaign and sure *looks* a lot smarter then Dolan.

  73. Mulligan

    jon abbey: you guys are crazy to applaud that NJ deal this much without an extension, to me it just makes it decidedly more likely that Amare and Melo can wine and dine Williams on their overlapping off days in NYC.
    I think it’s a great potential development for the Knicks, don’t forget that Williams’ deal expires before NJ goes to Brooklyn, so he will only be playing in that dead arena in Newark.  

    Exactly.

  74. Nick C.

    Great article Mike. While Melo may be a tick above his comps (except for Saint Bernard) for the most part they were #1 or #2 scorers on teams that barely saw the second round. That being said I am assuming my Syracuse homerism kicks in with my NYK fandom and I will root like hell for the Orange and Blue.

    As for Williams two things came to mind. This cuts our list of PG we need/can get in half, which is a bad thing. Two, while I hate to bring him up, I see DW going out just like Marbury did in NJ. But really what’s he pissed about, he goes from one sub 500 team to another, he may have led his HOF coach to resign and Utah vs. Newark/northern Jersey NYC metro area – either he is an outdoorsman or a Morman otherwise why the long face.

  75. Caleb

    @73 Is Jer

    tastycakes:
    You’re saying that you would trade Felton, Gallo, Chandler, Mozgov, AR, Curry’s bloated corpse, a 1st, and 2 seconds for Harris, Favors, and 2 1sts.You would do that trade?Seriously???  

    I would do it in a minute… This year’s pick is top 5 and next year’s Golden State pick is probably the lottery, too. Mid-teens, at worst.

    Favors/Gallo
    #3 pick/AR
    Harris/Felton
    #15 pick/Chandler (no longer on rookie deal)

    Based on those the Jersey offer is way better… Mozgov and a couple of 2nd rounders are nice to have, but yes, I’d prefer the Nets offer.

  76. Frank

    John Kenney: Nets got the better player after making us pay more for the worse one than we would have had to otherwise.
    Nets played us.  

    No question we got played.
    They won this battle but the war is definitely still up for grabs.
    The package they gave up for D-Will is probably roughly equivalent or more than our package to Denver. So is potentially 1.5 years of an apparently pissed off D-Will better than 4 years of happy Melo + 1.5 years of probably ok with this Billups?

    Clearly D-Will is awesome but we really just cannot overlook how good Billups is:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=billuch01&y1=2011&p2=willide01&y2=2011

    And re: what what Roundball Mining guy said — I’m sure Billups CAN push it if he is specifically told to. I mean, he’s a professional PG. I think he can dribble the ball fast and run. I think we can also expect to see a lot of TD + Billups backcourt, and perhaps TD will be the one to break out in transition.

    Last thing – playoff basketball turns much more into half-court basketball. And I think without a doubt we got 2 players that are excellent half-court players.

    So I’m feeling cautiously optimistic. sad about losing all our guys, but hey – at least life is interesting now as opposed to the entire 2001-2010 decade.

  77. New Guy

    Funniest news of the day:

    Sam Amick: Warriors and Boston in discussions that would send Nate Robinson to the Warriors, source says. Not done yet though. Other pieces unclear. Twitter

    Curry, Monta, Nate, in the same backcourt!

  78. endyendy

    jon abbey: you guys are crazy to applaud that NJ deal this much without an extension, to me it just makes it decidedly more likely that Amare and Melo can wine and dine Williams on their overlapping off days in NYC.
    I think it’s a great potential development for the Knicks, don’t forget that Williams’ deal expires before NJ goes to Brooklyn, so he will only be playing in that dead arena in Newark.  

    Good point. They’ll be hanging out at the 40/40 discussing their future in NY together while Jay-z glares at them from a distance.

  79. Caleb

    @76 good. dont want to think about i! But they’re the Clips, they’ll screw it up.

    Brian Cronin: Apparently Nate and David Lee might be reuniting.
    Who would the Celtics want on the Warriors’ roster, though? They would love to get Wright, but they couldn’t get him with just Nate. .  

    Warriors have been trying to move Biedrins’ salary… Perkins + Nate match up. So does Jermaine O’Neal + Nate, although that might not be enough. Throw in a pick. Killer for the Celtics.

  80. DS

    tastycakes: I’m sorry, but you’re being very generous to the Nets offer in the way you’re looking at things here.

    You’re saying that you would trade Felton, Gallo, Chandler, Mozgov, AR, Curry’s bloated corpse, a 1st, and 2 seconds for Harris, Favors, and 2 1sts. You would do that trade? Seriously???

    I wouldn’t trade for that “haul” unless I was rebuilding and wanted to gamble on the Nets 1st rounders. Which, it seems, is the Jazz strategy ATM.

    Goddamnit, I was seriously trying to relax and hopefully enjoy Melo’s debut tonight, hoping for the best, but this sort of thing is infuriating.  

    To quote Brian Cronin: “I don’t think the Knicks could have gotten Williams with what got them Carmelo. I think the Jazz are much more interested in the picks and the young Favors than anyone in the Knick offer.”

  81. Ben R

    If GS really wants to move Biedrins, could we get in on that? He would be a perfect fit. We could even include Boston, supposedly they wanted Brewer.

  82. taggart4800

    NJ needs to make more moves in the very near future to make this worth it.
    @77 – Totally agree. If NJ doesn’t win he will be playing for Avery Johnson on a losing team in a terrible arena. All the while the Super friends across the river will be in the playoffs and living the good life. I would be tempted by less money and a shot at a title if my new office was only 20 minute more commute. Plus if he doesn’t like it there then he will be telling other FA’s too. All this coupled with the fact that they will have fewer draft picks.
    This trade receives a massive PENDING, Not impossible to salvage but very, very dangerous.

  83. Ben R

    I am worried that Walsh wants to keep as much cap room open as possible in 2012, to keep the pipedream of Paul/D-Will alive, and he won’t make the necessary moves to make this current team as good as possible and we will squander the two years we actually have with Billups.

    We need to look for ways to improve our frontcourt and the best/only way to do that without assets, in which we have none left, is to take salary.

  84. tastycakes

    DS:
    To quote Brian Cronin: “I don’t think the Knicks could have gotten Williams with what got them Carmelo. I think the Jazz are much more interested in the picks and the young Favors than anyone in the Knick offer.”  

    Sure. All of these things have to be contextualized.

    The Nets — they are desperate. So much like the Isiah Knicks, they are willing to completely and utterly mortgage their future influx of young talent to get a top guy who, by himself, isn’t LeBron James-ish enough to actually push them into contention. Unless D-Will manages to turn shit into shinola, this trade is going to look really bad for them in 2 years when Williams walks.

    The Jazz — they are rebuilding. They would rather gamble that the (estimated) #5 this year and the #15 next year turn out to produce a star, because they must not think guys like Gallo or AR or Chandler will ever be at that level. Picks are risky, but once you have one, especially in the high lottery, they can be super rewarding. So this trade makes sense for the Jazz, because they exploited one of the few lottery teams desperate enough to give away a lottery pick. Also, the Jazz are smart enough to realize they are not contenders and never will be with the current roster, so sometimes you have to blow it all up and start over (much as the Knicks might end up doing in 2 years when Amar’e + Melo + whomever are still 1st round fodder).

    The Knicks weren’t desperate, they were merely decent. With a top tier guy already in tow, they figured that another top tier guy would get them into the upper echelon. What I don’t get is why Melo was the supposedly top-tier guy they targeted, when his skill-set is not particularly complementary to Amar’e’s. So, for a decent team as the Knicks were last week, their trade certainly appears rational, but probably is no good for actually competing…

  85. Doug

    I don’t see a convincing scenario where D-Will signs an extension with NJ. First, the Nets can’t offer him an extension until 2013, and he can opt out in 2012. He could just as easily take a walk at the end of next year, considering that he never wanted to go to NJ in the first place.

    Williams and Brook Lopez won’t lead the Nets to a championship, or maybe even respectability. The Nets right now have a two-man game and the rest is mediocrity. Outlaw, Vujacic, Morrow, and Petro are not turning into quality role players simply by having Williams pass to them. It’s not like the Nets’ glory years where Kidd at several offensive weapons at his disposal. If Williams can somehow elevate Avery Johnson’s bunch into seriously playoff contenders, he’ll be a miracle worker.

    The Nets will still need to sign Dwight Howard in free agency, because their tradeable assets are gone. Billy King has proved spectacularly Isiah-esque in signing role players. I’m having a lot of difficulty seeing how the Nets can become championship contenders by the time they roll into Brooklyn.

    An unhappy Deron and a gutted Nets roster is no match made in heaven.

  86. tastycakes

    As a result, Caleb, no, I wouldn’t take that trade if I were the Knicks. No way. Yes, picks and cheap guys are really really nice to have, but it would set us back in the present and be very risky for the medium term — we’re going to compete for a ring with Amar’e in 3 years with those 2 Nets picks and Favors? Mega-risky.

    We already had cheap young guys, one of whom is 22 with borderline all-star potential and a game that is very appropriate for the system we play (Gallo).

    The better move would have been to stand pat, let those guys develop — nobody’s trade value that we moved was going down — and either sign these guys as FAs without giving things up or make a deal when it’s totally killer in our favor.

    We gave up too much. Team got better, but so what? Chicago and Miami will be clearly better than us for the next 5 years. The only flexibility I see is to flip one of our star guys, but the way management sees things, I doubt that ever happens.

    Anyway, I’ll be putting my optimist hat on later and rooting for Melo in his debut. As a hardcore lifer, you know I sure as hell hope I (and all the smart people here that I respect) are completely and utterly wrong.

  87. ess-dog

    Ben R:
    We need to look for ways to improve our frontcourt and the best/only way to do that without assets, in which we have none left, is to take salary.  

    Camby seems perfect but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.

  88. marxster

    This is not a disaster. D-Will is apparently not happy with this trade. It’s conceivable that he won’t wanna stay there if they can’t put enough around him.

  89. latke

    Do you think Boston would give us Semih Erden for Brewer? He seems slightly better than Mozgov at the same age and with a smaller contract.

    If Millsap is available, I think he’d be great here. Solve the rebounding problems without losing much in terms of perimeter shooting. He’s also a decent low post threat and muscly enough to guard most 5s.

    Knicks should be in full on win now mode, and with teams worried about the new CBA, now might be the best time to get a steal. It’s not like we’re going to have more assets next year. I’d be willing to move Fields for the right deal.

  90. Owen

    “As a hardcore lifer, you know I sure as hell hope I (and all the smart people here that I respect) are completely and utterly wrong.”

    There is a certain beauty in being a contrarian when it comes to basketball. If feels good to be right. I can look back on the Eddy Curry era and all the arguments we had about him being the second best center in the East with a not insignificant amount of satisfaction.

    We skeptics are nicely hedged, if we are wrong about Melo and this team turns into a 55-60 win monster, well, we can feel very happy about being wrong.

    Mike, it was a nice post. I have to say, there are a lot of players I would put on that list who I think are better than Carmelo. Duncan, Rondo, Iguodala, Boozer, Stephon Curry, Bogut. And then there is a long list of guys who offer similar production at a much lower cost.

  91. jon abbey

    yeah, someone tweeted that Williams was working out this morning when he saw the trade move across the ticker, that was the first he knew of it.

  92. Ben R

    I’m looking at NJ and if they can also get Wright and Gadzaric from GS their future doesn’t look so bad. Lopez is overrated but he is still a good player, not a star but a solid player to be your center especially if you’ve got hard nosed PFs like both Humphries and Wright. I would say that between Lopez, Humphies, Wright, Petro and Gadzaric they’re looking pretty good upfront. I actually think Morrow is a really nice player and to compliment a 2 man game of Lopez and Williams is perfect. Farmar is a solid backup PG so that just leaves SF and back up SG in which they need help but wing is the easiest position to fill. If I was GM of the Nets I would try and move Outlaw for Childress, Outlaw’s contract is one year shorter and Pheonix might bite, I’d even throw in a late 1st to get it done. All of a sudden NJ starts to look pretty good.

    Williams
    Morrow
    Childress
    Humphries
    Lopez

    Farmar
    Wright
    Petro

    Sign one more decent wing and that’s a 45 win team I think. Not amazing but without this move they were headed to one of the worst records in the league for the 2nd straight year with very little upside, so seems like a solid move to me. Maybe go after Chandler in the offseason, fill that wing need. They also still have, I think, 4 1sts in the next two years. I gotta say I don’t think NJ’s future is that much less bright than ours.

  93. Frank O.

    jon abbey: yeah, someone tweeted that Williams was working out this morning when he saw the trade move across the ticker, that was the first he knew of it.  

    He’s going to be in blue and orange in 2012

  94. JK47

    I don’t like that trade at all for the Nets. It was a “keeping up with the Joneses” move. I actually think the Russian and Billy King are IDIOTS for making this trade.

    They’re 17-40. Light years away from contention. They traded away a cost-controlled, 19-year old Derrick Favors, who at age 19 is averaging about a double-double per 36 minutes. They already had a decent point guard in Devin Harris, who they also traded away. D-Will is certainly an upgrade over Harris, but it’s not like they’re filling in a black hole. They are also giving up a lottery pick, and since they stink, there’s a very good chance their ping-pong ball could be selected and they could end up with a top-3 pick and a guy like Kyrie Irving or Jared Sullinger or someone like that.

    All of this for essentially one season of Deron Williams. Okay, a season and a half, but the Nets are already playing out the string so this season is already a waste. Remember, the Nets have traded their draft pick in 2011 and just gave up other assets to get Deron. How do they improve their team? How do you sell Deron Williams, who would have just completed his age 27 season, into sticking around with your mediocre sub-.500 team?

    They’re going to regret this move.

  95. Frank O.

    JK47: I don’t like that trade at all for the Nets.It was a “keeping up with the Joneses” move.I actually think the Russian and Billy King are IDIOTS for making this trade.They’re 17-40.Light years away from contention.They traded away a cost-controlled, 19-year old Derrick Favors, who at age 19 is averaging about a double-double per 36 minutes.They already had a decent point guard in Devin Harris, who they also traded away.D-Will is certainly an upgrade over Harris, but it’s not like they’re filling in a black hole.They are also giving up a lottery pick, and since they stink, there’s a very good chance their ping-pong ball could be selected and they could end up with a top-3 pick and a guy like Kyrie Irving or Jared Sullinger or someone like that.All of this for essentially one season of Deron Williams.Okay, a season and a half, but the Nets are already playing out the string so this season is already a waste.Remember, the Nets have traded their draft pick in 2011 and just gave up other assets to get Deron.How do they improve their team?How do you sell Deron Williams, who would have just completed his age 27 season, into sticking around with your mediocre sub-.500 team?They’re going to regret this move.  

    I think the Nets had no choice. No one wants to come and play for them. The missed out on Wade, Lebron, Amare and now Carmelo.
    Utah reached out to the Nets.
    Their best hope is to get a guy, treat him like royalty, offer him the sun and the moon when it is time to try and keep him, and pray you have made enough of an impression and shown a willingness to improve that he stays.
    Otherwise, they’re not getting anyone there until they finally get to Brooklyn.

  96. BigBlueAL

    What JK47 just said.

    I love how almost everyone here’s initial reaction is OMG the Nets just punked the Knicks!! More proof the Knicks are idiots!!

    Only chance they have to keep Williams is to fire Avery Johnson and pray for a miracle. The Nets essentially traded back-to-back Top 5 picks for Williams who only has 1 1/2 years left on his contract.

  97. ess-dog

    I’ve always thought Melo was a thicker version of Dominique Wilkins. Great scoring ability, able to post up smaller players, no conscience, passive defense. Melo is the slightly better rebounder. Nique had some very good years that probably bested Carmelo’s best years. And that Hawks team did very well, despite little else (Doc Rivers had a few very good years.) They challenged an amazing Celtics team for a few years. They were very close.

    I’m clearly trying to be super-positive here, but with the right pieces around Melo-Amare, we do have a shot. You never know. Injuries happen. Teams get out-coached. Match-up problems surface.

  98. Ben R

    Frank O.: He’s going to be in blue and orange in 2012  (Quote)

    Are the Net’s changing their colors?

    Alot can happen in a year and a half, alot can change with the CBA, right now I would put Williams staying in NJ at 50/50. I think it was a gamble worth taking.

  99. JK47

    @110

    The Nets had a choice– a very good choice, actually. They could have held onto all of their assets and picks. They could have done exactly what we all wanted NYK to do: build smartly and patiently around cost-controlled young players. They could have kept Favors, drafted another lottery pick this summer, then used their two first-rounders from 2012 and they would have a boatload of young talent.

    I’m glad they made this trade. It keeps D-Will away from a true contender until at least 2012-2013. But they have an inferiority complex and an egomaniac owner, so they did something dumb.

  100. ess-dog

    JK47: @110The Nets had a choice– a very good choice, actually.They could have held onto all of their assets and picks.They could have done exactly what we all wanted NYK to do: build smartly and patiently around cost-controlled young players.They could have kept Favors, drafted another lottery pick this summer, then used their two first-rounders from 2012 and they would have a boatload of young talent.I’m glad they made this trade.It keeps D-Will away from a true contender until at least 2012-2013.But they have an inferiority complex and an egomaniac owner, so they did something dumb.  

    I somewhat agree. Get your lotter pick and Sullinger/Irving. Trade Harris to Portland for a young player or a pick. Sign some low priced vets and just build. Be the anti-Knicks.

  101. jaredrutledge

    sometime in early 2012 deron william’s mother is going to get thrown in a van by two big guys with accents, and he’ll sign a five year extension.

    mutant russian mark cuban don’t play.

  102. tastycakes

    What is everybody’s beef with Avery Johnson? He had the Mavs on the threshold of winning a championship when they wuz robbed by some of the worst officiating in history.

    Yeah, he’s got a squeaky voice, is that the problem?

  103. Frank

    ess-dog: I’m clearly trying to be super-positive here, but with the right pieces around Melo-Amare, we do have a shot.You never know.Injuries happen.Teams get out-coached.Match-up problems surface.  

    Super-positive is:
    1 – D’Antoni’s offensive philosophy (getting guys on the move when they have the advantage, with most jumpers being spot-up off of passes) controls Melo’s Iso-tendencies, and we get the best of both worlds – a guy who can score with the shotclock going down if necessary, but not a guy who holds the ball making jab-steps for 1/2 the shot clock
    2- We are 2-0 against Chicago and 1-2 vs. Miami, with one of the losses being a 1 possession game with <1 minute left.
    3 – We are 1-1 against Boston — the "official" standings show us 0-2 but we're actually 1-1.

    (of course, we have a totally different team now).

    I'm feeling better and better (or maybe just more delusional) about our new team now. If Donnie can somehow flip something to get a big, I'll feel a lot better.

    Oh man – I just had a sudden hope that the Knicks sign Jeffrightened if he gets released. I must be delusional and not just optimistic.

  104. Frank O.

    Funny tweet from Bill simmons:

    “It’s just starting to dawn on me that Darko Milicic, Michael Beasley, Eddy Curry and Anthony Randolph are on the same team.”

  105. Frank O.

    Simmons also said:
    The knicks now own two of the 10 All Star game starters. That move was a no-brainer…

  106. BigBlueAL

    Forget the Nets talk, I cant freaking wait until 7:30!! Lets just hope Melo’s MSG Knick debut isnt similar to Marbury’s. lol

  107. Frank O.

    DS:
    So did the 1993-94 New Jersey Nets.  

    Dude, if you want to feel shitty about this, that’s cool.
    I felt shitty for a while, but now we have what we have. I’m trying to see positives.

  108. Frank O.

    tweet from alan Hahn:

    Source tells Newsday the physicals are all complete. Carmelo, Chauncey and Co. will make debut tonight.

  109. NateRobinson

    One underrated note that I do love about Melo is that he always passes out of double teams.

    But God am I scared of our bench now, never thought it was possible but now its even worse. I hope Herb Williams and Allan Houston suit up today.

    Can anyone of you foresee a defensive improvement? I mean if not our bench will sport horrible +/- on every boxscore.

  110. Owen

    “Can anyone of you foresee a defensive improvement?”

    You can surround high volume scorers with excellent but low usage defensive players. Think the Sixers with Iverson (Mutombo, Tyrone Hill, Mckie, Ratliff). Their title team was 5th in the league in defense. I think thats really the upside in one dimensional scorers like Carmelo. Since they take all the shots anyway the offensive capabilities of the Chris Anderson’s of this world don’t matter that much.

    Personally, I think it would be fascinating to see how a lineup of Billups, Fields, Balkman, Anthony, and Stoudemire would do out there.

    However, I don’t see D’Antoni going that route.

  111. Spree8nyk8

    John Kenney: Nets got the better player after making us pay more for the worse one than we would have had to otherwise.
    Nets played us.  

    Except they didn’t get the better player.

  112. Brian Cronin

    Except they didn’t get the better player.

    Agreed in the sense that they did not lock the better player in, as they might lose him as early as next summer.

    Disagreed in the general sense of “who is a better player?” as Williams is definitely better than Melo. Williams is no Chris Paul, but they’re both better than Melo.

    Going by a tiered system, Paul is top tier, Williams is second tier and Melo is third tier (third tier is really really good). Amar’s is second tier.

  113. Spree8nyk8

    Frank O.:
    Dude, if you want to feel shitty about this, that’s cool.
    I felt shitty for a while, but now we have what we have. I’m trying to see positives.  

    Can’t let it bother you Frank, lots of people are gonna be eating their frownie fries for awhile while they cry about not getting their way. They’ll get over it eventually.

  114. Spree8nyk8

    Brian Cronin:
    Agreed in the sense that they did not lock the better player in, as they might lose him as early as next summer.
    Disagreed in the general sense of “who is a better player?” as Williams is definitely better than Melo. Williams is no Chris Paul, but they’re both better than Melo.
    Going by a tiered system, Paul is top tier, Williams is second tier and Melo is third tier (third tier is really really good). Amar’s is second tier.   

    Sorry, was looking for the “imo” part bc that shit definitely aint fact

  115. Brian Cronin

    Sorry, was looking for the “imo” part bc that shit definitely aint fact

    Pretty much. How would you even begin to make an argument for Melo over Williams? Williams is a better defender, better shooter and obviously is one of the best assist guys in the league. Melo has a rebounding advantage.

  116. Spree8nyk8

    I’ll go with the popular vote on this one and side with the MUCH better scorer that led the league in scoring last month playing in a situation he didn’t want to be in. I’ve listened to countless analysts today and haven’t heard ANY of them call Dwill the better player. Have heard it the other way almost every time unless it didn’t come up.

  117. Brian Cronin

    I’ll go with the popular vote on this one and side with the MUCH better scorer that led the league in scoring last month playing in a situation he didn’t want to be in. I’ve listened to countless analysts today and haven’t heard ANY of them call Dwill the better player. Have heard it the other way almost every time unless it didn’t come up.

    It’s been mentioned frequently by a lot of different analysts. Here, from Yahoo’s feed (I have their Twitter feed up)

    NJ’s strategy seems to have been chase Melo for .5 a yr, then give up and trade less for a better, younger, cheaper player

  118. Brian Cronin

    Hollinger:

    Stay or go, this deal has to be considered a huge short-term coup for New Jersey. Williams is one of the game’s best point guards and provides the boost of star power the Nets had been craving with their season-long pursuit of Carmelo Anthony. Instead the Nets got a better player and gave up considerably less.

  119. Brian Cronin

    Heck, since you specifically mentioned popular vote, even a popular vote on ESPNNY of over 21,000 people had Williams ahead of Melo.

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