Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Author: Tom V.

Recent Articles

Tonight’s 4 Factors (@ LAC, 11/14/07)

After each game this season, we’ll be taking a look at what the four factors have to say about the game– how the winner won and the loser lost. For an intro to the four factors, see A Layman’s Guide to Advanced NBA Statistics. Knicks lose to Clippers, 81-84 Pace Eff eFG FT/FG OREB% TOr NYK 94.0 86.2 35.2% 29.6 35.3 21.3 LAC 89.4 39.4% 20.0 24.1 14.9 A few days ago after the miserable Miami loss, I lamented that it would be a small miracle if the Knicks held another opponent below 90 points per 100 possessions all season. …continue reading

Tonight’s 4 Factors (11/13/07)

After each game this season, we’ll be taking a look at what the four factors have to say about the game– how the winner won and the loser lost. For an intro to the four factors, see A Layman’s Guide to Advanced NBA Statistics. Knicks lose to Suns, 102 – 113 Pace Eff eFG FT/FG OREB% TOr NYK 96.0 106.3 50.0% 18.6 29.3 17.7 PHO 117.7 61.0% 32.9 27.3 19.8 Seems a bit silly to look too closely into this one. Phoenix got whatever they wanted. Much of the game was garbage time or a close approximation, and so the …continue reading

Tonight’s 4 Factors (11/11/07)

After each game this season, we’ll be taking a look at what the four factors have to say about the game– how the winner won and the loser lost. For an intro to the four factors, see here. Knicks lose to Heat, 72 – 75 Pace Eff eFG FT/FG OREB% TOr MIA 84.0 89.3 47.9% 6.8 27.0 20.2 NYK 85.7 39.3% 17.3 26.7 21.4 In a word, this game was ugly. It was a slow, low possession game, but not substantially slower than the 97 – 93 win over the Timberwolves (87 possessions). What made it unbearable was the offensive …continue reading

What ails the Knicks’ D?

The Knicks are a poor defensive team (24th out of 30 in points allowed per 100 possessions in ’07; 26th in ’06 with more or less the same roster). Conventional wisdom has it that New York’s defensive ineptitude is due in large part to a porous interior defense, where Eddy Curry is a poor rebounder and shotblocker, David Lee is slow to rotate, and the departing Channing Frye was soft. Many worry that the interior D is only going to get worse with Zach Randolph and his poor defensive reputation joining Curry, portending an even weaker defensive squad in 2008. …continue reading

Can Curry and Randolph coexist?

I must admit that my initial gut reaction to the Randolph trade was not exactly great. And I still don’t really like it. The obvious parallel here is the disastrous Francis trade, in which the Knicks acquired a talented but flawed player with a huge contract who duplicated almost exactly the skill set of a player already on the roster. Unlike the Francis trade, there is no question the Knicks won big on the talent end of this trade. But is there any hope that Curry and Randolph might coexist any better than Marbury and Francis did? On closer inspection, …continue reading

Reconstructing the Draft

In the last post I argued that the NBA draft is not broken, despite recent complaints about the manner in which it gives bad teams incentive to tank and the manner in which it does not always distribute talent evenly according to record. In fact, in the lottery system there must a tradeoff whereby these opposing flaws are balanced against eachother. Most would agree that it is not acceptable to let tanking run rampant by assigning draft order strictly by record, or to disregard team needs by assigning draft order completely randomly. The trick is to find the best happy …continue reading

Is the NBA Draft Broken?

With the dust of the 2007 NBA lottery beginning to settle, two lines of complaint are fresh in the media and fans? collective consciousness: 1. Something is wrong with the draft because it encourages tanking. 2. Something is wrong with the draft because the top picks do not always go to the worst teams. The implicit irony in the whole situation is that these flaws are not independent. At one end of the extreme, we can imagine a system that completely eliminates worries about (2) by assigning draft order strictly by record. But this system maximizes worries about (1) because …continue reading