“If the Knicks miss on LeBron/Wade, would you say they should sign no one/ let Lee walk and go for the early lottery/ Melo, Parker, etc. in 2011?”

it depends who is actually available and for how much, and also the new CBA really confuses things, but the worst thing possible would be to do what Detroit did and commit to guys like Gordon and Villanueva long-term just because they had cap space. if we can’t get LeBron/Wade, I think I’d rather just deal anyone we can move for draft picks and start building mostly from scratch, a la Oklahoma City.

Yeah, in the Knicks case I suppose they have a hard choice to make. I believe they only have to move Jeffries to be in a position to sign 2 max guys. I agree that if you have to move a young piece to shed Jeffries’ contract then you do it, it’s a tough call though. You can be wrong either way. Then again, Walsh is paid so much to make the tough calls.

I agree that Lee may be a MUCH better value depending on where the market for him is. With all the cap space out there this offseason he may get a market value or above market value deal, but Lee is such a polarizing (love/hate) player… who knows.

Jon,

It’s a tradeoff… 45 wins and you have a good team that might be one or two pieces away from real contention/winning a title. If you don’t have that big pole yet but a strong supporting cast, you might be one trade/signing/pick away from getting the big pole and contending. If you’ve got a big pole already it’s easier and you’ve just got to add small poles. Whether you get over the hump or not you’re in the playoffs and doing something. Well… last season 45 wins in the East would have made you the 5 seed, while you’d be 10th and in the lottery in the West.
19 wins and you’ve got a better shot in the draft (provided your GM doesn’t trade away all your picks) and probably also some cap space (provided your GM doesn’t construct the highest payroll in the NBA on a mediocre team). Some teams take forever to emerge from that state, though, and others emerge only to get to the 45 win area. It’s high risk/high reward… You might get a LeBron James your first year in the lottery… or you may end up with the 4th pick in a weak draft despite the worst record one year and then get the #1 pick the next only to draft a Kwame or Olowakandi.

I like Westbrook and Curry, but are they really legit big poles? Sure, I would be happy with either or both in blue and orange, but I’m just saying that neither is LeBron/ Wade/ Howard/ Paul/ Melo/ Kobe. Both have serious holes in their games. Unless they develop into all-around, all-world, top 3-5 players (Westbrook would have to seriously improve his .483 TS%…which is seriously pathetic…, while Curry would have a lot of work to do) I would call drafting guys like that the piece by piece approach that the Knicks might be on starting with a Lee/Danilo/WC nucleus–and then adding to it with some strong, but not LeBron sized, moves. (That’s assuming the miss out on the Big 2…) I might take Westbrook over any of those 3, but probably not Curry.

If the Knicks miss on LeBron/Wade, would you say they should sign no one/ let Lee walk and go for the early lottery/ Melo, Parker, etc. in 2011?

that last phrase needs to be recognized and commended, but for me at this point in my Knicks fandom, we need to hold out for big poles. either a team is a genuine championship contender or they’re not, 45-37 or 19-63 isn’t much different to me. actually if we have our pick, I might prefer 19-63 over 45-37 and a first round exit. it kills me how close we got to Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry the last two seasons, if only we’d lost a few more games.

By doing that you are making your best effort at securing two main “poles” for you tent. In my view, there simply is no other way to be in a position to get two max guys like Wade and Lebron.

If you don’t do that, you simply can’t shed Curry and/or Jeffries. People aren’t going to take out your trash unless they get paid somehow. Dumping that kind of trash might cost you two of the three short poles…to beat the analogy to death…:)

I mean, like if they can sign him for $5-8 mill per for 1, 2, 3 years absolute max and if it fits with what they can and can’t do with the rest of their space. If nothing else materializes maybe overpay a little to use him as a one year place holder… a Duhon style move. Maybe complement other signings with him if you need some interior D/a 5-man.

But if you waste your time chasing a big pole that never comes or trying to expand a small pole into a big one/use a faulty big pole you end up in the lottery for 5-10 years watching your big pole eat Vaseline online. Only one team wins it all every year, and if I’m not that team I’d rather be close than sitting at home watching the playoffs.

If the Knicks can get LeBron and Wade I do think they should go out of their way to take that shot. That’s a fairly unique situation, though. Two redwood sized poles are on the market at the same time and the Knicks have something of a reasonable chance at getting them due to geography (or whatever you want to call playing in the biggest media market in the country/world?).

As far as Wade’s health… he played 3000 minutes last season and is on pace to do so again. You could also argue that going from Miami’s offense to one with LeBron and maybe Gallo and/or WC and/or sharpshooters Douglas and Hill will really shield him from injury. That could even be a marketing pitch given by the Knicks. Their offense outside of him is weak, even with Jermaine O’Neal playing well and some generally efficient scoring. (Depending on where the market for him is, Jermaine O’Neal might be a fall-back option for the Knicks this offseason… .570 TS%.)
I do think Joe Johnson would be a sweet lieutenant for LeBron (passing, scoring, shooting) and he has been super durable. Your plan would yield a perennial top 3 offense. I just think you take a big cut at Wade and then if you miss you quickly turn to Johnson (don’t know how you do it, but I’ll leave that to Donnie). I suppose one of Gallo/Chandler/Lee could eventually used to get some defense, maybe a bigman. Of course, I understand why you couldn’t really include mystery bigman to be traded for/drafted/signed later as a key part of your plan. Dalembert and Tyson Chandler are both 2011 FAs the Knicks could nab (probably for less than they make now) as defense/rebounding/efficient low-volume scoring specialists with the Jeffries/Curry cap space. And Jermaine and Camby are available this offseason.
I’m trying to think through how you keep Lee and get 2 max FAs… just might be too ambitious, unless Atlanta doesn’t want to keep Joe Johnson. Don’t really see why they wouldn’t, though. Then again, I guess a third team could provide the free agent the leverage he needs to get to NY: “sign-and-trade me to NY or I’m signing in City X. Team could call his bluff if he’s bluffing.

got my 12.3 and 15.3 from ESPN…
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?playerId=2772

stat-fight!

Lee & Bosh both having great years, yes. I am no statistician but on the surface Lee’s career just looks extremely consistent.

$100M kicker to his current deal if he signs in NY.

“You shouldn’t undervalue “small poles,” as you call them. There is a wide spectrum of value among them. Some are more valuable than others and some are better fits for your structure.”

but in the end, if you don’t have a “center pole”, you don’t win a title in today’s NBA. the only exception to this in the last 30+ years is the Wallace/Wallace/Prince/Hamilton/Billups Pistons, and even they were somewhat lucky that the infighting of that last Kobe/Shaq team made them disintegrate in the Finals. so, yeah, if you have five top 20 or 25 players, you have a shot, but basically you need one of the handful of superstars.