Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, November 21, 2014

A Couple of Odds & Ends

Alan Hahn mentions this possible deal:

According to Broussard, Don Nelson told rookie Anthony Randolph, “You should have your agent start looking into trades, because this is not working out.”

The 19-year-old Randolph – yes, he’s only 19 – makes the rookie scale of $1.7 million which means you could probably — Bloghost note: to all you linking from HoopsHype, this is JUST a mere SUGGESTION on a BLOG not an actual REPORT of something factual! — could get him if you dangled David Lee. But that would definitely be a move that signals rebuilding over taking a shot at the playoffs…though Randolph does have tremendous upside as an offensive player and a big who can play in transition. However, we all know Nellie loves this style, too, so if he’s seeing flaws . . .

I think Hahn is pretty good at getting inside information, but as a basketball analyst he’s pretty lacking. I don’t think Randolph has tremendous upside as an offensive player, in fact his offense is severely lacking. From Ed Weiland’s draft profile: “For PFs, scoring efficiently is probably more important than scoring often. A PF who can put up a high FG pct. from inside the arc is one who has a better chance of becoming an effective inside scorer in the NBA. Anthony Randolph was not an efficient 2-point scorer at LSU. Not even close. He hit .483 on two pointers and .105 on 19 three pointers. Not too many college stars go onto NBA greatness after hitting less than .515 on 2-point FGs. In fact, no one has.”

That said, Randolph has some potential. Although he’s played only 274 minutes, his non-scoring stats are good (2.8 BLK/36, 1.2 STL/36) and his rebounding is through the roof (12.2 REB/36). However that potential is tainted by his horrendous scoring (43% TS%, 3.8 TO/36). As NBADraft.net said of him “He’s got a chance to be special, but in turn a higher than average chance of being a bust as well.” Why would the Knicks trade their best asset (David Lee) for a player that has a chance of becoming a colossal bust? Hahn seems to pluck this out of thin air, and he admits to there being no rumors to this deal even being discussed. Obviously Hahn thinks it would be a good deal for New York, or at least one worth considering. But at this stage of Anthony Randolph’s career, he’s not worth David Lee.

Marc Berman of the New York Post reports Eddy Curry may be healthy by next week:

Curry confirmed he is on track to join the team full tilt in practice in a little more than a week. After that, “It’s up to the coach when he thinks I’m ready to play,” he said.

Because of a bruised right knee, Curry hasn’t practiced since the regular season began but may start doing on-court drills on Christmas Day, when the club returns to practice.

In a rare interview, Curry told The Post he’s genuinely excited about this return. That is a departure from past interviews when Curry seemed resigned to his banished fate, despondent his knee was not healing. He ticked off the coaching staff originally by reporting to training camp well over 300 pounds.

“I’m excited, I’m ready to get back,” Curry told The Post. “I’m definitely excited.”

Knicks president Donnie Walsh said at practice yesterday Curry “wants to play” and thinks he’ll join practice in about one week.

The 7-foot Curry yesterday finished a three-week program during which he was injected with a shot in his knee once a week – a lubricant that has lessened his pain. His final injection was yesterday. In late September, he took a cortisone shot that failed to work.

“I talked to [D’Antoni] a couple of times,” Curry said. “He really assured me he wants me to be part of what’s going on and for me not to lose my concentration and stay in it mentally and keep trying to work hard so when I come back I’m not too far behind. I’m glad he’s anticipating my return.”

I can’t believe I’m typing this, but I’m looking forward to see Eddy Curry in D’Antoni’s offense. It’s not because I think Curry can reclaim his career as a possible franchise center. But I think that Curry can be a good reserve center in the right offense. And I think D’Antoni’s system would minimize some of Eddy’s weaknesses.

In the past New York’s offense centered around giving Curry the ball in the post and forcing him to score or find an open player. Curry’s turnovers spiked as he committed offensive fouls and failed to pass the ball back out to an open player. Part of the problem was the offensive set would often leave players motionless, the other problem was force feeding him the ball. In D’Antoni’s offense the ball and players are in continuous motion, which means 4 players won’t be standing around while Eddy tries to figure out what to do. With Duhon running the offense, Curry should get the ball in better positions to score.

Additionally Curry gives the Knicks some size. New York’s main weakness is interior defense, and although blocked shots is not one of Curry’s strengths, he does it better than the current Knick frontcourt. Curry’s career 1.1 BLK/36 is better than what Lee (0.3), Harrington (0.3), Jeffries (0.3), and Chandler (0.9) have given the Knicks on a per minute basis this year. Coach D’Antoni likes to use a smaller lineup, but it looks like the Jared Jeffries experiment isn’t what he thought it would be. Since he’s moved to center, Jeffries is sporting a PER of 3.8 and his turnovers and fouls have increased (5.0 TO/36, 5.7 PF/36). Curry would likely be an improvement over Jeffries.

Ultimately my dream scenario is for Curry to be productive enough for the Knicks to move him for a player that better fits their needs with a shorter contract. But even if he’s productive for 15-20 minutes a night that means the Knicks have one less dead roster spot.

[Edited: To correct Hahn’s first name.]

55 comments on “A Couple of Odds & Ends

  1. George From Scottsdale

    Mike, your points re Randolph/Lee, are well taken;Lee should be considered a “keeper”, even at his new contract, he’ll provide 30+ solid mins. of rebounding and scoring.Your Curry comments might be questionable.The K’s play their best when the middle is open and Harrington, Duhon, Lee and N8 are driving and drawing fouls. I’m not sure how Curry can be effective and still leave driving opportunites open.It’s obvious that MD does teach basic defense properly, but it appears implementation is a different question. A basic principle of effective defense is “know the shooter”, double teaming Kendrick Perkins, 8 ft. from the basket and leaving Allen wide open for a 3 or Garnett, under the basket for an uncontested dunk, makes no sense.Robinson MUST go over every screen and Lee can’t double everytime, leaving the lane open to uncontested layups.A defensive presence, I advocated Robin Lopez in last year’s draft, would be nice,but even this team can clean-up their defensive act,by playing more “straight-up” man,having the “bigs” hedge more aggresively but NOT double,having N8 pressure the ball more aggressively in the backcourt,while going over every screen and hope Tim T plays some defense, it’s fixable.

  2. italian stallion

    I can’t see the Randolph/Lee trade at all. I think the general perception is that very young players with outstanding athleticism have more upside than those that don’t (all else being equal). That’s probably Hahn’s thinking also, but I think we can do better than “potential upside” for Lee at this point. Using Lee to move a terrible contract probably made some sense a couple of months ago, but moving him now (with 2 bad contracts already gone and noone here to rebound) makes no sense unless resigning him for big bucks is already off the table in their thinking.

    I’m not a big fan of Jeffries and never understood why D’Antoni was so high on him to begin with, but I’m willing to give him a pass for his recent performances. He was coming off an injury and was probably rushed back because the Knicks needed some bodies. Then he played a couple of games after the leg started bothering him again. I doubt we saw what he’s capable of at 100% based on the “net level of his performances” over that period. The problem is that IMO, 100% doesn’t solve our problems either.

    If they can figure out how to prevent Curry’s defensive weaknesses from being a major liability, they might be able to find a decent role for him in the offense. I think his turnovers will automatically go down if the Knicks are knocking down 3s at a decent clip. He was terrible at passing out of the double/triple team, but if a team is lighting it up from the outside, it becomes more difficult to double and triple team a post player to begin with. He didn’t have that advantage a couple of years ago. It was the complete opposite. Perhaps when Gallinari comes back, we can substitute him for Chandler and Qrich and get more consistent shooting from the outside with him and Robinson on the court.

  3. Nick C.

    The Lee aspect I don’t see. It would be a major accomplishment for Randolph or anyone outside of a top 5 or so pick to reach Lee’s level. As for Curry, they may as well see what he can do, it’s not like a championship season is at risk.

  4. captshoehorn

    Seriously, you lose a lot of credibility when you can’t even get the name right of the guy you’re bashing. Alan Hahn, not David. I know you’re just a blogger, but when you pull stuff like that, you seem pretty careless and unprofessional. Attention to detail. It goes a long way towards credibility.

  5. italian stallion

    Seriously, you lose a lot of credibility when you can’t even get the name right of the guy you’re bashing. Alan Hahn, not David. I know you’re just a blogger, but when you pull stuff like that, you seem pretty careless and unprofessional. Attention to detail. It goes a long way towards credibility.

    Personally, I think we should cut him a lot of slack on that one.
    It’s not like he quoted some significant stats incorrectly when disagreeing with someone. We all forget or mix up a name now or then. I know I always do and don’t want it to count against my basketball opinions. I have enough trouble getting any respect around here. LMAO

  6. BRIGGS

    The Lee aspect I don’t see. It would be a major accomplishment for Randolph or anyone outside of a top 5 or so pick to reach Lee’s level. As for Curry, they may as well see what he can do, it’s not like a championship season is at risk.

    I can go through a lot of flaw with almost every post here.

    First off in your post you say it’s unlikely that Randolph can be as good as Lee if he was not a top 5 pick–when in fact David Lee was pick 30.

    Going back to the to p”Not too many college stars go onto NBA greatness after hitting less than .515 on 2-point FGs.

    Does this take into account that Anthony Randolph played 1 year at 18 years old with an LSU team that had no real PG? Does it take into account that doctors say he will grow 2-3 inches over the next couple of years? Actually averaging 15.6 points 8.5 rebounds 2.3 blocks @ 46.5% is pretty darn good for any freshmen player. What would be his 4 year projection as he became more experienced got stronger taller and enhanced his skills? Where do you think Randolph might go in this draft if he stayed?

    Does anyone realize that Anthony Randolph in very limited minutes has more blocked shots by himself than the entire Knick team?

    I believe Anthony Randolph is the closest prospect I have seen resembling a new KG since KG came out. He has great ball skills for his size he has grit toughness tenacity. He’s very athletic and has good FT mechanics and I believe over time will be a good mid range shooter to go along with the various assets he can bring to the table. I submit that at his peak Randolph will be an all star both ways–a horrible player to match up against–one who can guard the 5 all the way down to 1–who will be able to score in a variety of ways—go look at some SL tape.

    There is no true way to analytically evaluate a player who has such a limited resume who hasnt even stopped growing. You have to look at the player–look at how he plays the game and see how he fits. He has more upside than Lee–I would say considerably more and with *possibility* that some team may walk in and give David Lee an offer the Knicks won’t match–I would do this deal in 2 seconds.

  7. italian stallion

    Briggs,

    I think there seems to be a consenus about Randolph’s upside. It’s the downside risk that some people are weighing against that.

    It’s a probability question.

    Is a Bird in hand (or in this case Lee, LOL), worth two in the bush?

    It depends on the probability of catching the two birds vs. ending up with none.

    Also, if Lee was a potentially excess player because the Knicks were deep in PFs and rebounding, the downside of the trade for the Knicks would be lower. IMO, the recent trades have changed the desireability of trading Lee in order move a bad contract or to get another player.

  8. Frank

    I think we need more information about WHY Nellie wants to get rid of him. Is it a personality conflict? Is he horrible from a basketball-smarts perspective? I think it’s unlikely that D’Antoni would want one of the latter — I presume that’s why he got rid of Balkman even though Balkman would seem to be a reasonable fit as a 7-8th man in this system.

    The other side of it is this — if we don’t have to resign David Lee then it’s possible we can actually really sign 2 max free agents in 2010. Best case scenario has Lebron + either Stoudemire or Bosh. Even if we don’t get Lebron, you would assume they’re going to go hard after either Amare or Bosh. You still have Gallinari (who knows what we’ll get from him). I assume they’ll try to keep Harrington somehow — he and Donnie Walsh are BFF so maybe we could keep him. I’m not sure how much room there would be for Lee — so as I see it, doing this trade MIGHT be less about getting Randolph and more about ensuring enough cap space to get 2 max FAs — and if Randolph hits it big, then all the better.

    The next 1.5 seasons would suck though.

  9. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger) Post author

    Seriously, you lose a lot of credibility when you can’t even get the name right of the guy you’re bashing. Alan Hahn, not David. I know you’re just a blogger, but when you pull stuff like that, you seem pretty careless and unprofessional. Attention to detail. It goes a long way towards credibility.

    Thanks captain. I do try to be careful, but unlike newspapers I don’t have an editor to check for mistakes. Hopefully one day I can reach the level of professionalism and credibility of the New York Post.

  10. Thomas B.

    Anthony Randolph for Lee? C’mon Alan, David whatever your name is that aint gonna work. Look, maybe-I said maybe- Randolph, Morrow AND the Warriors first round draft pick (top 5 protected 2009 and top 3 protected 2010 unprotected thereafter) for Lee. Maybe.

  11. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger) Post author

    I believe Anthony Randolph is the closest prospect I have seen resembling a new KG since KG came out….

    There is no true way to analytically evaluate a player who has such a limited resume who hasnt even stopped growing.

    Kevin Garnett had a TS% of 52.2% and 1.7 TO/36 his first year. Randolph is currently at 43% TS% and 3.8 TO/36. There’s just no comparison.

    You have to look at the player–look at how he plays the game and see how he fits. He has more upside than Lee–I would say considerably more and with *possibility* that some team may walk in and give David Lee an offer the Knicks won’t match–I would do this deal in 2 seconds.

    Thank goodness you’re not the Knicks GM.

    There’s no doubt that Randolph may have more upside, but then again he’s more likely to be a bust than bargain. The Knicks already have a 19 year old 6-10 forward with potential. Why would they trade easily their best trading chip for another — especially one that can’t score? New York could get more for Lee if they wanted to move him.

  12. BRIGGS

    <

    I believe Anthony Randolph is the closest prospect I have seen resembling a new KG since KG came out….
    There is no true way to analytically evaluate a player who has such a limited resume who hasnt even stopped growing.

    Kevin Garnett had a TS% of 52.2% and 1.7 TO/36 his first year. Randolph is currently at 43% TS% and 3.8 TO/36. There’s just no comparison.

    You have to look at the player–look at how he plays the game and see how he fits. He has more upside than Lee–I would say considerably more and with *possibility* that some team may walk in and give David Lee an offer the Knicks won’t match–I would do this deal in 2 seconds.

    Thank goodness you’re not the Knicks GM.
    There’s no doubt that Randolph may have more upside, but then again he’s more likely to be a bust than bargain. The Knicks already have a 19 year old 6-10 forward with potential. Why would they trade easily their best trading chip for another — especially one that can’t score? New York could get more for Lee if they wanted to move him.

    Let me ask you–how many games did you see Anthony Randolph play at LSU last year or this year at Golden State SL or NBA? Before you throw numbers into the equation–please tell me you have seen a reasonable quantity of his live play.

    In terms of number projections-KG’s first year

    28 min points 10.4 reb 6.3 as 1.8 blocks 1.6steals 1 FG% 49 FT 70%

    Right now AR is only playing 13.7 minutes if we project his numbers out to 27[and you can see the tend when he gets the extra time in his game log in terms of production per minute played]

    His numbers come out at
    27 min points 12 reb 9.4 as 1.6 Blocks 2.2 steals 1 FG% 40 FT 12/3.4 60%

    No material difference per minute played. When I make an evaluation of who I want picked–I let my eyes make the decisions. This is an eye-opening talent.

  13. Thomas B.

    John Hollinger wrote of Randolph on ESPN insider during predraft workouts:

    “Seen in many quarters as a high lottery pick, Randolph has virtually nothing in his statistical record to justify such a lofty selection.

    In particular, his woeful ball-handling numbers are a major red flag. Randolph had more turnovers than any prospect except Beasley and Thompson, but those two players had every play run through them; I’m still waiting to find out Randolph’s excuse.

    Additionally, his 49.9 true shooting percentage is alarmingly bad for a guy who is supposed to dominate athletically.”

    We want to trade a double-double guy for this? Right now, all I see is a thin Adonal Foyle.

  14. o_boogie

    One thing that we have not touched upon is Randolph’s attitude. I was watching a random Warriors game and the announcers were talking about how Randolph tends get down on himself after making a bad play or when he gets benched. Shortly thereafter, Randolph made a bad shot and Nellie yanked him. He went to the bench and looked like he was gonna cry. Thats definitely not the right attitude if he is to turn into a a good or great player. Granted he is young and may mature, but if he takes every piece of criticism personally he will never grow as a player.

    If he comes to a hypercritical city like NY he needs thick skin with a teflon coating. I personally do not think it would be a good fit based on this premise alone.

    And the comparison to KG is garbage. Many players can accumulate stats their rookie year equivalent to KG, but only KG has that endless motor, uncomparable work ethic, charisma, leadership, and intangibles that make him an alltime great. Classic example: Elton Brand averaged 20 pts, 10 reb his rookie year and we can see how Brand and KG’s careers have diverged.

  15. BRIGGS

    Right now, all I see is an thin Adonal Foyle.

    Thats all I have to know–this tells me point blank you don’t even know who the player is never mind watching him play.

  16. Thomas B.

    Right now, all I see is an thin Adonal Foyle.

    Thats all I have to know–this tells me point blank you don’t even know who the player is never mind watching him play.

    This tells me you 1) lack a sense of humor, 2) are Anthony Randolph’s agent, or 3) both 1 and 2.

  17. o_boogie

    captshoehorn:

    Big effing deal if he got Hahn’s first name wrong. Criticizing Mike’s basketball commentary based on a simple error is a pretty weak argument that holds no water. What is important is that he cited the source and did not plagiarize the information. If you ran a blog that generates as many posts as Knickblogger, I am 100% sure you would make an error at least once.

  18. BRIGGS
    Right now, all I see is an thin Adonal Foyle.
    Thats all I have to know–this tells me point blank you don’t even know who the player is never mind watching him play.

    This tells me you 1) lack a sense of humor, 2) are Anthony Randolph’s agent, or 3) both 1 and 2.

    I’m going to help you here–here is a nice tape showing a vast array of Randolph’s skill sets. No I’m not an agent or his long lost brother–I just don’t make blind comments on players I haven’t thoroughly watched and make decision son a player based on very limited resume/numbers.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CRtna5iDFc

    Now atleast you can see the guy you are talking about actually play.

  19. BRIGGS
    Right now, all I see is an thin Adonal Foyle.
    Thats all I have to know–this tells me point blank you don’t even know who the player is never mind watching him play.

    This tells me you 1) lack a sense of humor, 2) are Anthony Randolph’s agent, or 3) both 1 and 2.

    I’m going to help you here–here is a nice tape showing a vast array of Randolph’s skill sets. No I’m not an agent or his long lost brother–I just don’t make blind comments on players I haven’t thoroughly watched and make decision son a player based on very limited resume/numbers.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CRtna5iDFc
    Now atleast you can see the guy you are talking about actually play.

    By the way Randolph is the tall guy who dribbles the length of the court in several clips #3 in case you get confused.

  20. Thomas B.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CRtna5iDFc

    Now atleast you can see the guy you are talking about actually play.

    Thanks. Maybe the Adonal Foyle reference was wrong. Based on Randolph shooting, maybe I should call him a thin Mardy Collins.

    Hey, check out what did not make the highlight reel.

    eFG% .400
    ft% .606
    ts% .430
    Usg-r 23.6
    Ast-r 8.2 (40 best, 2 worst)

    So what do we have? A high usage, low efficiency, poor passing forward. Is that what we need? A guy who makes youtube.com highlight reels during Warriors garbage time.

    Brother you need to see the light.

    (Cue the evangelical organ music and think Billy Graham)

    I was once like you, my brother. I know visuals can be seductive. I know how raw numbers can make things seem more than they really are. Amen. I once saw Zach Randolph’s 20-10 numbers and said “Yes. This is the man the Knicks need.” I saw his highlight reel on Sports Center and I said, “If only the Knicks could get a player like that.” Then my prayers were answered and the Knicks had one of the worst seasons ever.

    But now I have seen the light my brother. I was shown the way to advanced stats. Hallelujah!! I learned that ability means little next to the almighty power of effective field goal percentage. I learned that it does not matter how you can dribble the ball up court, if the Ast-r and turnover ratio is among the worst at the position. Thank yah!!

    I have been where you are my brother and I want to help you. Right now, you can be saved. I want you to go to the top of this page, and I want you to click the link for what I call the bible of any sane sports fan. That’s right, “A Layman’s guide to Advanced NBA Statistics” is the link that opened my world. It saved me my brother, and it can save you too. Read and repent!!

  21. BRIGGS
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CRtna5iDFc
    Now atleast you can see the guy you are talking about actually play.

    Thanks. Maybe the Adonal Foyle reference was wrong. Based on Randolph shooting, maybe I should call him a thin Mardy Collins.
    Hey, check out what did not make the highlight reel.
    eFG% .400
    ft% .606
    ts% .430
    Usg-r 23.6
    Ast-r 8.2 (40 best, 2 worst)
    So what do we have? A high usage, low efficiency, poor passing forward. Is that what we need? A guy who makes youtube.com highlight reels during Warriors garbage time.
    Brother you need to see the light.
    (Cue the evangelical organ music and think Billy Graham)
    I was once like you, my brother. I know visuals can be seductive. I know how raw numbers can make things seem more than they really are. Amen. and said “Yes. This is the man the Knicks need.” I saw his highlight reel on Sports Center and I said, “If only the Knicks could get a player like that.” Then my prayers were answered and the Knicks had one of the worst seasons ever.
    But now I have seen the light my brother. I was shown the way to advanced stats. Hallelujah!! I learned that ability means little next to the almighty power of effective field goal percentage. I learned that it does not matter how you can dribble the ball up court, if the Ast-r and turnover ratio is among the worst at the position. Thank yah!!
    I have been where you are my brother and I want to help you. Right now, you can be saved. I want you to go to the top of this page, and I want you to click the link for what I call the bible of any sane sports fan. That’s right, “A Layman’s guide to Advanced NBA Statistics” is the link that opened my world. It saved me my brother, and it can save you too. Read and repent!!

    I think that you and others are looking at numbers of a 19 year old and fixating on them way too much. —->I once saw Zach Randolph’s 20-10 numbers –yes I’m glad you saw his numbers but what does that mean? I ask the question again–how many people here have watched Randolph play a full game on TV –mainly at LSU or in the SL this year? Have you seen him a few times in spot duty this year with the Warriors? When you evaluate a very young player–you cant form basis of opinion solely on numbers. How much due diligence have you done on this player? How do you view his ball skills for 6-10? How about his defensive skills? You know he has more blocked shots in limited minutes than EVERY single Knick combined? His doctors have stated he will continue to grow to close to 7-1–is that in you efg? Does usg-r measure tenacity and heart? A lot of teams missed the boat here–including my Knicks. This was an easy pick for the Knicks–we needed a guy who can play in an uptempo system that can do other things than shooting 153s a game–we already have 5 6-8 guys for that.

  22. Duff Soviet Union

    I can’t believe Owen hasn’t penned a 1,000 vitriolic screed about this ridiculous proposal. Unless he read it and fainted.

  23. Duff Soviet Union

    I love how this Briggs guy tells us to ignore the numbers on Anthony Randolph and then tells us about how many shots he blocks. That’s just brilliant.

    “How do you view his ball skills for 6-10?” Looking at his assist and turnover numbers (in pros and in college), I would say that they suck. “Does usg-r measure tenacity and heart?” No, it measures how large a role a guy plays in an offense. Looking at both his usage and efficiency, I would guess that young Mr. Randolph is not nearly the offensive player he thinks he is.

  24. italian stallion

    “I think that you and others are looking at numbers of a 19 year old and fixating on them way too much.”

    I agree with this much.

    IMO, observing a “very young player” (as opposed to a seasoned veteran) on the court and measuring his athletic ability often gives you clues as to his potential development that stats don’t. That’s why NBA teams have college scouts and do pre draft testing of the players even though they have all kinds of stats they could use to evaluate him. However, a young player’s stats also give you clues as to his strengths and weaknesses. That’s what everyone else is trying to explain to you.

    I haven’t seen much of Randolph, but considering he is almost universally considered to be very athletic and talented for big and growing kid, I would estimate that whatever his stats are now, he is much more likely to improve on them than a seasoned veteran or a player of a similar age that is not considered as athletic etc…

    It’s still a gamble though. As I said before, it’s a probability problem.

    What is the probability he becomes a star vs. the probability he remains a low efficiency C/PF (bust)?

    The probability he becomes a star is higher than for a more seasoned veteran or unathletic prospect, but not a mortal lock.

  25. Count Zero

    No to Lee for Randolph.

    However…I see the trade Lee scenario as unavoidable. We can’t afford to keep him next year and stick with the plan, and really — he’s probably worth more right now than he will ever be worth again. Plus, I see him as a player without a clear position on this team as we move forward. Realistically, he’s not going to be a starting PF or C on a competitive team because he can’t defend at either position. And after he finishes piling up offensive stats this season, he will cost too much to be a backup.

    In other words — it’s a good time to “sell high” on Lee. But sell high means get something better than Anthony Randolph. That’s my opinion anyway.

  26. jon abbey

    I’ll only do it if we also throw in Nate and Gallinari.

    slow day here, the Yankees are making up for it…

  27. BRIGGS

    No to Lee for Randolph.
    However…I see the trade Lee scenario as unavoidable. We can’t afford to keep him next year and stick with the plan, and really — he’s probably worth more right now than he will ever be worth again. Plus, I see him as a player without a clear position on this team as we move forward. Realistically, he’s not going to be a starting PF or C on a competitive team because he can’t defend at either position. And after he finishes piling up offensive stats this season, he will cost too much to be a backup.
    In other words — it’s a good time to “sell high” on Lee. But sell high means get something better than Anthony Randolph. That’s my opinion anyway.

    Lee’s a FA so his value will be less. I would be happy with Randolph Marcus Williams and Golden States 2009 2nd round pick

  28. Thomas B.

    No to Lee for Randolph.
    However…I see the trade Lee scenario as unavoidable. We can’t afford to keep him next year and stick with the plan, and really — he’s probably worth more right now than he will ever be worth again. Plus, I see him as a player without a clear position on this team as we move forward. Realistically, he’s not going to be a starting PF or C on a competitive team because he can’t defend at either position. And after he finishes piling up offensive stats this season, he will cost too much to be a backup.
    In other words — it’s a good time to “sell high” on Lee. But sell high means get something better than Anthony Randolph. That’s my opinion anyway.

    Lee’s a FA so his value will be less. I would be happy with Randolph Marcus Williams and Golden States 2009 2nd round pick

    Isiah, is that you?

  29. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger) Post author

    I’m going to help you here–here is a nice tape showing a vast array of Randolph’s skill sets. No I’m not an agent or his long lost brother–I just don’t make blind comments on players I haven’t thoroughly watched and make decision son a player based on very limited resume/numbers.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CRtna5iDFc

    Now atleast you can see the guy you are talking about actually play.

    Oh the best way to scout someone is their mixed tape? What about these studs:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hufYu-nq8M
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEkjKEo8JCA
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf1OkfVGtSM

    And yes I saw Randolph at LSU. And he looked good. But I can’t count the number of guys that I watched dominate in college only to become mediocre NBA players. Tyrus Thomas played for LSU – looked a million times better than Randolph and had an even better rookie year (52.1% TS%, 3.5 TO/36) but three years later, he hardly looks like an All Star.

    Look it’s possible that Randolph gets a clue on offense and becomes a good NBA player. But that’s far from a certainty and considering his awful turnover numbers it’s unlikely. So it makes no sense to trade David Lee straight up for him.

  30. 2010

    Thomas,

    #20 was one of the funniest posts ive ever read. thanks.

    No to Lee for Randolph.
    However…I see the trade Lee scenario as unavoidable. We can’t afford to keep him next year and stick with the plan, and really — he’s probably worth more right now than he will ever be worth again. Plus, I see him as a player without a clear position on this team as we move forward. Realistically, he’s not going to be a starting PF or C on a competitive team because he can’t defend at either position. And after he finishes piling up offensive stats this season, he will cost too much to be a backup.
    In other words — it’s a good time to “sell high” on Lee. But sell high means get something better than Anthony Randolph. That’s my opinion anyway.

    This is the way i see it too. I like lee, the problem is he is playing so well in this system and in his new role without randolph that there is no way the knicks will be able to pay what he will be offered by another team and still sign two max players. as good as he is, i dont think he is better than what we could potentially get in free agency. He is having a great season so that is another reason to trade him now. knicks should look for a playoff team that could use him that has another teams good draft pick (like utah with our pick) or try to get a young prospect so that way we still get something in return for him (im ready to pack this season in for ping pong balls anyway)

    btw, ive watched randolph in lsu and i was not impressed. he has a chance to be a star but most likely will be a bust.

  31. BRIGGS
    I’m going to help you here–here is a nice tape showing a vast array of Randolph’s skill sets. No I’m not an agent or his long lost brother–I just don’t make blind comments on players I haven’t thoroughly watched and make decision son a player based on very limited resume/numbers.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CRtna5iDFc
    Now atleast you can see the guy you are talking about actually play.

    Oh the best way to scout someone is their mixed tape? What about these studs:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hufYu-nq8M
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEkjKEo8JCA
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf1OkfVGtSM
    And yes I saw Randolph at LSU. And he looked good. But I can’t count the number of guys that I watched dominate in college only to become mediocre NBA players. Tyrus Thomas played for LSU – looked a million times better than Randolph and had an even better rookie year (52.1% TS%, 3.5 TO/36) but three years later, he hardly looks like an All Star.
    Look it’s possible that Randolph gets a clue on offense and becomes a good NBA player. But that’s far from a certainty and considering his awful turnover numbers it’s unlikely. So it makes no sense to trade David Lee straight up for him.

    And what happens at the end of the year when Portland frontload’s a 66MM$ contract to David Lee? With the plan in 2010–he may just walk for nothing.

    By the way I would not give up on Tyrus Thomas—I would love to give him a chance here. Chris Duhon was nearly cut midway through the season with the Bulls last year and was shooting in the low 30s at the midway point. I personally think it is hogwash about the availability of Randolph–GS would have to be crazy or atleast getting a package back that contained a player of serious significance–like part of a Chris Bosh package.

    I’m a huge David Lee fan. He’s the guts of the team. He also cannot stop people from entering our lane and he’s going to command huge $$$ at the end of the season no matter what. If the Knicks are stuck with Curry and Jefferies[very plausible] and pay Nate and Lee their fair value–we will not be a biog time player in 2010–oh yeah we would also have to renounce Duhon and Harrington.

    My preference is try to find 2-3 trades where I can grab some salary restricted players who have shown potential and can fit in an uptempo system. 3 guys on my list would be Branden Wright Anthony Randolph and Tyrus Thomas. If I could get Thomas with Chicago’s number 1 pick in 2009–I would do it also in two seconds. Sorry from changing the subject of Randolph’s potential to our business plan and what is actually viable but they do go hand in hand.

  32. Thomas B.

    Oh the best way to scout someone is their mixed tape? What about these studs:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hufYu-nq8M
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEkjKEo8JCA
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf1OkfVGtSM

    I wondered who it would be. I was thinking Harold Minor, or Dejuan Wagner, but nothing is funnier than your own.

    LMAO moment: In the second vid 24 seconds in- he is wrapped in a GARBAGE bag. Nothing is more appropriate than that. I have found my new Gravatar.

  33. ess-dog

    First off, doesn’t G.S. already have a Lee-type player in Biedrins? Why would they even want Lee?
    Second, what’s all the business about them wanting to trade Maggette already after signing him to a 5 year contract? So they want to trade 2 of their 3 SF’s? And roll with Azubuike as their starter?
    I think it’s time for someone to send Don Nelson a brochure for the Century Village Retirement Community so he can retire with grace and dignity.
    By the way, you should see the Warriors blogs… they are all like, “if only Crawford can get more consistent with his scoring, he’d be an all-star”… heh heh… suckers…

  34. BiggieSmalls

    Oh the best way to scout someone is their mixed tape? What about these studs:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hufYu-nq8M
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEkjKEo8JCA
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf1OkfVGtSM

    These three are very accurate fo rthe players they portray.

    Jeffries is a defensive player with no outside shot at all
    Snacks has no reasonable highlights but a few snap shots and a quote on how he want out
    Kandi Man was a number one who subsequently signed for the mid level

    BRIGGGS — your logic is sound regarding the plan. Lee for Randolf is a no go though.. Lee for Randolf and a number one (protected somewhat) is more like it.

    ess-dog Beindris is more of a defensive player than Lee will ever Be. He blocks shots at least and is a true center at 7 foot.

    I like Randolph’s potential. If Donnie does as well he would be a good target. Cant see how GS would take on so many ex Knciks but what about:

    Lee, Chandler, and Malik for
    Randolph, Bellini and Stephen Jackson?

    GS gets two young players.
    Malik gives them budget room to Extend Lee.

    Knicks get another ex Donnie Player, a good outside shooter who players 1/2/3, a high upside big to play the middle and a number one.

    Jackson costs 8.5 in 10/11 so it’s not too bad and Bellini expires at that time.

  35. jon abbey

    “And what happens at the end of the year when Portland frontload’s a 66MM$ contract to David Lee?”

    hahaha, have you not heard of LaMarcus Aldridge? I’m about as likely to get a 66M offer from Portland this offseason as Lee is.

  36. BiggieSmalls

    jon – do you doubt someone will offer lee a contract averaging eight digits or more this off season?

  37. jon abbey

    well, again, Atlanta has Horford, so I don’t see that happening. Oklahoma City at least makes sense in terms of personnel, but honestly I’ll believe Lee drawing an offer sheet that big when I see it. I still think he’s a bench player on a top team, a very capable reserve, but not a star.

    FWIW, there are only 41 players in the league making $12 million or more next year, or about 1 1/3 per team. you can quote stats at me all day, but there’s no way David Lee belongs in that company. his defense is average at best, he’s overmatched against any real center, he’s not a shot blocker, he’s a PF and I don’t think in the top 10 or 12 at that position.

    of course, none of that answers the question about what NY should do with Lee, because I really don’t know the answer to that. for one thing, Walsh and D’Antoni have a much better idea about how realistic it is that two of the 2010 superstars will want to come to NY than I do.

  38. d-mar

    “By the way, you should see the Warriors blogs… they are all like, “if only Crawford can get more consistent with his scoring, he’d be an all-star”… heh heh… suckers…

    That’s really funny ess-dog. Sorta like saying if Eddy Curry could rebound and block shots, he’d be Dwight Howard.

  39. italian stallion

    In pre-season, when the idea of trading Lee was floated because he’ll be expensive to resign, could walk, and we could combine him with a big contract, I thought it made a lot of sense.

    Granted his stats look good now and that could make him even more expensive, but Walsh and D’Antoni have been consistent in their comments about remaining competitive while they try to rebuild.

    In pre-season we had Zach. Curry was also still being talked about as having a role in D’Antoni’s plans. Since then we’ve moved 2 large contracts (including Zach) and Curry is in the doghouse unlikely to escape other than to be showcased.

    If we move Lee, we are going to have to get back a big man that can contribute right away or we won’t be competitive. We are already very small and lacking in rebounders. To me, moving him now doesn’t make as much sense and is less likely unless the other team blunders badly and gives us a great deal (very unlikely).

    I think the goal is to showcase Curry and try to move him, but I don’t think they’ll include Lee anymore. We can always wait on Curry until next year.

    If Curry IS moved then Lee’s salary becomes less of an issue. As much as I like Lee, I think his reputation in NY (and especially on blogs etc…) is much better than it is around the league. The rest of the league considers him a solid role player that can do the dirty work. In NY he is considered the heart and soul of the team etc.. because we’ve been so brutally bad for so many years. IMO, it is unlikely that someone else gives him a contract that we can’t match and feel good about.

    Once 2010 comes, if we wind up getting another PF, he will become a reserve and/or be tradable then as long as we don’t overpay. If I am right about the rest of the league, I don’t think overpaying will be an issue. If I am wrong, then we could lose him for nothing.

  40. BiggieSmalls

    Atlanta has Horford playing C now. He’s a Gator Alumn too.

    Josh Smith up front and Marvin Williams off the bench is a nice rotation.

    Anyhow, I agree with your assessment on Lee but fear teams will be all over him this off season.

  41. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger) Post author

    jon – do you doubt someone will offer lee a contract averaging eight digits or more this off season?

    I do. $60M is overpaying for Lee, and I can’t see any GM in the league offering that much. David West is making about $9M per, and from the debates we had here a majority of NBA fans think West is superior to Lee.

    But if a team does make that kind of offer, can’t the Knicks can match it and still turn around and trade him midseason? Or they can pull a sign & trade over the summer of 2010. A team that has resigned to losing their All Star, might be more willing to do a sign & trade if they’re getting back David Lee. (And maybe oddly enough David Lee is seen as worth more around the league if another owner wants him at $10M a year.)

  42. BiggieSmalls

    Mike –

    trading Lee mid season after the extension will be tough. Lee will be a Base Year Player and only half his year one comp will count for salary matching purposes.

  43. BRIGGS
    jon – do you doubt someone will offer lee a contract averaging eight digits or more this off season?

    I do. $60M is overpaying for Lee, and I can’t see any GM in the league offering that much. David West is making about $9M per, and from the debates we had here a majority of NBA fans think West is superior to Lee.
    But if a team does make that kind of offer, can’t the Knicks can match it and still turn around and trade him midseason? Or they can pull a sign & trade over the summer of 2010. A team that has resigned to losing their All Star, might be more willing to do a sign & trade if they’re getting back David Lee. (And maybe oddly enough David Lee is seen as worth more around the league if another owner wants him at $10M a year.)

    First of all David would be a base year compensation player which is nearly impossible to trade. And what kind of sense does it make to sign/commit to a 60mm contract with any player with the intentions of trading him half way through the season the following year–I’ll answer–none. Any team that wants David merely has to front load the first two years of his contract—forcing the Knicks into a precarious situation of having to pay him 11-12 mm in 2010 basing it on a contract that would range from 55-65mm$ team almost always overpay on the FA market–so expect the 65$ figure to be more accurate. A team DOES not have to do a deal with the Knicks for Lee–and they all know it.

  44. BRIGGS

    Let me add since the trade David Lee is averaging 17 points and 14 rebounds shooting nearly 60%–that is a 10-12mm $ player in this league.

  45. jon abbey

    D’Antoni’s system pumps up everyone’s numbers, especially when the rotation is too short, like now. this is why I can’t wait for Curry to get back.

  46. italian stallion

    You don’t re-sign Lee with the intention of trading him.

    You re-sign him because it makes sense at the time (like now). However, if in 2010 you bring in some players that make him less critical, you can always play him off the bench or trade him later. It doesn’t have to be mid season the next year or at any other specific time. As long as you don’t overpay for a player that can contribute, he doesn’t hurt the team’s flexibilty or quality to have him and he can always be traded at a later date. No problemo.

    I don’t think his stats from this year are going to matter all that much because it’s becoming more common knowledge that D’Antoni’s faster pace system pads stats. Plus it is well known that Lee is the only rebounder on the Knicks right now. No one is going to pay an All STAR quality salary for a guy that is universally considered to be just a solid role everywhere on the planet except NYC and a couple of advanced stats blogs.

    He’s going to get 8M +/- a little and it won’t be an issue as long as Curry gets traded before 2010.

  47. ess-dog

    A trade that could happen at the deadline: Curry and Lee to Charlotte for Bell and Diaw (and hopefully a draft pick or young player.)

    Also look for a 3 team swap involving:
    Golden State (A. Randolph, Maggette, Belinelli, Turiaf)
    Charlotte (G. Wallace, A. Morrison, Ray Felton, Diaw, Bell, M. Carrol)
    Knicks (Lee, Curry, Jeffries, Q Rich)

  48. o_boogie

    A trade that could happen at the deadline: Curry and Lee to Charlotte for Bell and Diaw (and hopefully a draft pick or young player.)
    Also look for a 3 team swap involving:
    Golden State (A. Randolph, Maggette, Belinelli, Turiaf)
    Charlotte (G. Wallace, A. Morrison, Ray Felton, Diaw, Bell, M. Carrol)
    Knicks (Lee, Curry, Jeffries, Q Rich)

    Who gets who for the 3 way deal?

  49. ess-dog

    Sorry, I mean a 3 way deal that could include any of the players listed not ALL of them… I’m not a numbers guy, so I don’t know how it would be made to work. G.S. likes Felton, Charlotte apparently likes Curry for some reason and LB likes Lee… and we like losing contracts! Unfortunately, Charlotte and G.S. could just do a deal amongst themselves and leave us out in the cold.

  50. AlbanyKnicks

    Here is another odd & end that could impact the Knicks. The excerpts are from the Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123006642127230987.html

    The Silver Lining to the Dolans’ Debt
    By VISHESH KUMAR

    Cablevision Systems Corp.’s debt load has made some investors skittish. But it may be a reason for comfort.

    Having to focus on meeting $1.7 billion in near-term maturities — due by the middle of next year — ensures the company’s controlling shareholder, the Dolan family, will focus on the core business and maximize cash flow.

    There is less room for the Dolans to spend money on businesses far afield from the company’s core cable operation, such as Newsday, a practice that helped create the so-called “Dolan discount” in the stock.

    Already there are signs the Dolans are hunkering down. Cablevision’s announcement last week it would shutter its money-losing domestic Voom HD network will save the company $50 million a year, some analysts estimate.

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