Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, November 24, 2014

2012 Report Card: Toney Douglas

Stats:

Player Age G MP MPG PER TS% eFG% TRB% AST% TOV% USG%
Toney Douglas 25 38 656 17.3 7.1 0.393 0.371 6.3 19.6 15.7 24.4

Per 36 Minutes:

FGA 3PA 3P% FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
15.9 6.4 0.231 1.4 0.846 0.9 3.1 4 4.2 1.6 0.1 3.1 3 13

I can summarize Toney Douglas’ 2012 with one question: “What the fuck happened to Toney Douglas?”

Douglas started off his career on a good note. Although never point-guardy enough for D’Antoni, Toney could shoot and defend. His rookie true shooting percentage of 57.1% meant that, at the least, he was able to score at a clip that would be beneficial to the team. Douglas seemed destined to carve a niche as a combo guard that can defend and score. Sure he had the court awareness of a four month old, but he could hold his own knocking down the three and getting to the cup.

His second year, Douglas’ scoring cooled a bit. His three point shooting dipped from 38.9% to a still healthy 37.3%. His true shooting percentage dipped to 53.4%, but his assist numbers climbed slightly. Douglas had hurt his shoulder but he played all but one game that year. Eventually he had post-season surgery that May to repair a torn labrum. With enough time off to heal, it seemed that in 2012 he’d probably be somewhere between his freshman and sophomore numbers.

Douglas started off the 2012 season scoring 19 on Christmas day against the Celtics. In his next two games he shot 5-19 and missed all 9 three pointers he attempted. Three games of double digit scoring seemed to right the ship. And then all of a sudden, Douglas torpedoed.

Over the next 2 weeks he managed only 2 of 20 three pointers. He lost his starting job, which he reclaimed in a desperate moment in January. But he never regained his shot. Even his defense became suspect. The characteristics that made him a promising youngster had deserted him. When the year was done, he ended with a ghastly ts% of 39.3%, built largely upon a repulsive 23.1% three point percentage.

The Knicks guard first three years leaves the observer wondering who the real Toney Douglas truly is. It was like that girlfriend who was great on the first date, a little quiet on the second, and a total psycho the third. Was his shoulder injury to blame? Did it never recover? Has the damage traversed from the physical to the mental? Was Douglas’ first year just a fluke, and is his real potential somewhere between seasons 2 and 3?

New York didn’t want to wait for an answer & shipped him away in the Marcus Camby deal. Even in a new city, observers may have to wait for Douglas to get an opportunity. The Rockets are deep at both guard spots with Lin, Martin, Livingston, and Delfino. Additionally Douglas will compete for time against young players like first round pick Jeremy Lamb and college/summer league phenom Scott Machado. So it may take a little while for Douglas to find his way back onto an N.B.A. court. Given his play last season, that’s probably not a bad thing.

Grades (5 point scale):
Offense: -1
Defense: 2
Teamwork: 1
Rootability: 1
Performance/Expectations: -1
Final Grade: F

17 comments on “2012 Report Card: Toney Douglas

  1. Z-man

    You know the season’s getting close when these ratings get cookin’! Thanks, Mike.

    My two cents: I think he suffers from some kind of dysfunctional peripheral/lateral vision. I never saw a guy run into so many screens head (shoulder) on. Maybe after getting hurt, he started to become more tentative, rather than seeing and adjusting better (Shump is great at this!)

    I think your rootability score is way too low, I did really like the guy and rooted hard for him to get back to what he was each and every time he went in. He gave his all, and was fun to quote, but at the end of the day, man, did he suck! I truly wish TD well, but frankly hope never to see him in the orange and blue again.

  2. massive

    I remember when everybody was so happy for Toney Douglas when he had his 15 and 6 night. Too bad that happened in only one game, and not the 66 I was expecting from him. 15 and 6 didn’t sound too unreasonable for him. And then he started playing, and that became a joke. I hope Douglasanity happens in Houston.

  3. ess-dog

    This is too horrific to read, like a police report. We all know what happened; there’s no need to dwell on the gruesome details.

  4. Juany8

    It’s insane to think that the starting guard rotation last year was TD, Mike Bibby, Landry Fields, and Bill Walker. Has there ever been a worse guard rotation? Ever?!?

  5. d-mar

    Juany8:
    It’s insane to think that the starting guard rotation last year was TD, Mike Bibby, Landry Fields, and Bill Walker. Has there ever been a worse guard rotation? Ever?!?

    Yeah, but Melo kept passing them the ball in spots on the court where they weren’t comfortable shooting, i.e. everywhere.

  6. chrisk06811

    Juany8:
    It’s insane to think that the starting guard rotation last year was TD, Mike Bibby, Landry Fields, and Bill Walker. Has there ever been a worse guard rotation? Ever?!?

    My CYO team, 9th grade, I got significant minutes at the 2. our PG was a white kid with a perm.

  7. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I attribute Toney’s horrid three-point shooting to a lack of PGs on the team. If we had a top-flight PG, he would have been open much more, and surely would have improved his 3PT% from 23 to at least 40.

  8. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Keep using those outliers. Two players undo 40 years of a trend. Whatever you say, guy. You could read Wages of Wins today, where there’s a long explanation of the system and data showing how the method matches up with actual wins, but, I know, you’re the expert. All those economists spew hokum.

  9. Juany8

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    Keep using those outliers. Two players undo 40 years of a trend. Whatever you say, guy. You could read Wages of Wins today, where there’s a long explanation of the system and data showing how the method matches up with actual wins, but, I know, you’re the expert. All those economists spew hokum.

    The same economists that totally failed to predict the market crash a few years back? Why do you keep failing to understand that I’m just as knowledgeable about statistics as these economists you keep praising? Have you ever tried to predict the production of oil field? Companies spend millions acquiring the data necessary to feel comfortable with their predictions, and you’re ok with using a simple box score as your only basis of information?

    You have no proof that the box score has sufficient information to form reasonable conclusions on, nor do you have proof that all the numbers in the box score are necessary for player evaluation. If the box score kept track of charges, wouldn’t creating a turnover and getting someone in foul trouble be roughly as valuable as a block or steal? Considering how poor a job assists do of actually assigning play making value, why in the world should it be used at all? How do you properly account for coaching, role, defense, and usage? Some of this information is already out there, what’s your justification for just ignoring that assisted and unassisted field goals aren’t quite the same thing?

  10. Z-man

    Chalk up another bail to the “outlier” defense. Oh, yeah, and Popovich raised Stephen Jackson’s career WP48 by 100 pts because he’s one of the only coaches that can do that, except that under his coachin, DeJuan Blair dropped 100 pts, but he’s clearly an outlier. Clearly, Manu would drop 100 pts under another coach, or Faried would replace Jordan as the GOAT under Popovich, oh wait, WoW says that Rodman is better than Jordan… shit, I’m confused!

  11. massive

    ESPN ranks Andre Iguodala and James Harden as the NBA’s 28th and 26th best players in the league. Can anybody seriously name 25 better players than those two? They should both be between 15 and 20, IMO.

  12. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Juany8: The same economists that totally failed to predict the market crash a few years back? Why do you keep failing to understand that I’m just as knowledgeable about statistics as these economists you keep praising? Have you ever tried to predict the production of oil field? Companies spend millions acquiring the data necessary to feel comfortable with their predictions, and you’re ok with using a simple box score as your only basis of information?

    You have no proof that the box score has sufficient information to form reasonable conclusions on, nor do you have proof that all the numbers in the box score are necessary for player evaluation. If the box score kept track of charges, wouldn’t creating a turnover and getting someone in foul trouble be roughly as valuable as a block or steal? Considering how poor a job assists do of actually assigning play making value, why in the world should it be used at all? How do you properly account for coaching, role, defense, and usage? Some of this information is already out there, what’s your justification for just ignoring that assisted and unassisted field goals aren’t quite the same thing?

    Are you really comparing macroeconomic projection with the microeconomic projection of a SIGNIFICANTLY less complex and less multivariate system? Are you telling me that because economists can’t predict with any real accuracy the movement of huge global markets that are dependent on huge numbers of variables, they can’t use regression to come up with any conclusion about fucking BASKETBALL?

    DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW FUCKING STUPID THIS IS

  13. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    massive:
    ESPN ranks Andre Iguodala and James Harden as the NBA’s 28th and 26th best players in the league. Can anybody seriously name 25 better players than those two? They should both be between 15 and 20, IMO.

    Iguodala’s not a volume scorer and Harden’s a sixth man who needs Westbrook to be efficient.

    Obviously.

  14. Juany8

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Are you really comparing macroeconomic projection with the microeconomic projection of a SIGNIFICANTLY less complex and less multivariate system? Are you telling me that because economists can’t predict with any real accuracy the movement of huge global markets that are dependent on huge numbers of variables, they can’t use regression to come up with any conclusion about fucking BASKETBALL?

    DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW FUCKING STUPID THIS IS

    Do you have any idea how stupid you look when you consistently attack straw men arguments nobody has ever made? Or when you constantly ignore very real questions about your precious little stat? I’m an engineer, guess what? That means I consider linear regressions kiddy math for people who don’t understand calculus and physics. Just because the best an economist can do is make a linear regression doesn’t mean I should submit to the idea that linear regressions are worth paying all that much attention to. Unless you find a physics/causality based model for basketball evaluation AND you start collecting your own data (the box score is garbage get over it) you’re never going to convince anyone to take you all that seriously.

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