Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, November 15, 2018

2017-18 Game Thread: Knicks vs. Raptors

Oops, I thought that this was a 2pm start for some reason.

Okay, the Knicks host the Raptors today, and the Knicks have surprisingly played them tough in the past.

Luke Kornet with the start!

Let’s go, Nick of Time (starring Johnny Depp)!

48 comments on “2017-18 Game Thread: Knicks vs. Raptors

  1. ptmilo

    Hey Frank when you suddenly turn and fling the ball at your own basket you don’t need to say my bad it’s implied

  2. ptmilo

    Luke Kornet may look like Travis Knight but he’s actually the string cheese version of Justin Holiday

  3. Brian Cronin Post author

    Burke seems to have worked hard to become a really good third guard in the 1995 NBA.

    I really do wonder how many players look at games from the past and think, “Damn, if this were 1990, I would be cleaning up.” Someone like O’Quinn could even have been a small forward 25 years ago!

  4. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Mudiay’s got more points than FGA and only one turnover… quick, someone write 1000 words on the 5 Simple Fixes to Turn a Scrub into a Bonafide NBA Starter!

  5. hoolahoop

    Mudiay’s got more points than FGA and only one turnover… quick, someone write 1000 words on the 5 Simple Fixes to Turn a Scrub into a Bonafide NBA Starter!

    I would by I don’t post on game threads.

  6. hoolahoop

    Mudiay’s got more points than FGA and only one turnover… quick, someone write 1000 words on the 5 Simple Fixes to Turn a Scrub into a Bonafide NBA Starter!

    In 5 words:
    poison every other starting PG

  7. ess-dog

    Well, if the Bulls can just beat the Hawks, we’ll be a half game out of the eighth spot. We have to at the very least pass the Bulls – as Brian noted – so that we can get one of Mikal, Bamba, or Carter Jr if we happen to drop a spot.

    Strangely, I think Bamba might be what’s left if we’re picking at 9. I think Carter’s our best choice and Mikal’s our best fit, but Bamba would a bit uncomfortable. I suppose that would mean we’d have to try and keep KP at pf? Not the worst thing in the world, but who knows if he can even get back to where he was guarding quicker players on the perimeter?

    Also, I would think that would mean the end of Kanter, if not immediately, then as soon as his contract’s up.

  8. Brian Cronin Post author

    Strangely, I think Bamba might be what’s left if we’re picking at 9.

    I can see scenarios where any one of those three makes it to #9. But yes, at the moment, the “feel” I have is that Bamba will be the guy there. Honestly, if the Knicks end up at #9, they’re still have a very, very good chance of picking #9. It’d be, what, a 95% chance? 96%? So I’m not too worried about them ending up at #9. I’d just prefer #8 so that they could pick who they want and not get “stuck” with a still very good player. And what if someone like Young does somehow drop? Or Porter? Or Bagley? Always better to be higher than lower!

    Remember when Curry dropped all the way to one pick before the Knicks? I still can’t believe that Jonny fuckin’ Flynn was picked before Curry.

  9. Bruno Almeida

    The more I think about it, the more I’m fine with Carter or Bamba. Porzingis will be out for the entire first half of next season anyway so there will be plenty of room to get the guy playing time, and they allow management to look for a trade with Kanter and let O’Quinn go.

    There’s just no way in hell Kanter is opting out, but he should be tradeable as he will be a big expiring contract for 2019 when teams will likely be looking to clear cap space as it could be a very strong FA class.

    Both Bamba and Carter could fit well next to Porzingis as they project to be very good rebounders and defenders, and also some insurance in case Porzingis never truly recovers well.

  10. thenoblefacehumper

    My new fear, outside of Sexton/Knox/Miles Bridges, is that Porter Jr. “slips” to the Knicks and we draft him. I wouldn’t consider it a bad move given the consensus but it’s possible we only get one more look at the guy. In most drafts I would easily consider it a worthwhile risk but the top 8-9 are unusually strong in this draft. I think I’d rather just take any of those guys who we know produced in the NCAA.

    Prominent high school recruits flop spectacularly all the time (disclaimer: that’s 100% anecdotal). I wouldn’t complain, but I’d be scared.

  11. Farfa

    In other news, it’s getting more and more likely that the Spurs are going to be out of the playoffs.

  12. Brian Cronin Post author

    It seems like every year that it feels like the East is catching up and then whammo – the #10 in the West would probably have home court in the East.

  13. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    If that quote doesn’t exemplify a chronic hater, I’m not sure what does.

    I calls it like I see it. I believe you are mad.

  14. djphan

    porter looked not so great vs georgia but there was glimpses of the guy who was the consensus#1 before the season…. the thing was that he had zero lift and coming off a back injury that’s a pretty scary thing….

    i might just pick him…. but i bet there’s a lot of gm’s really scared with the prospect of picking him either way…..

  15. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

    Honestly, if we are ninth in the standings at the end of season, we should expect to draft tenth. Even though it’s unlikely that any given team below us will win the lottery, the probability that some team gets lucky is pretty high.

  16. Bruno Almeida

    I think with Porter is more that he would be picked 9th by us, then it’s such a valuable gamble. If we we’re picking 5th I would be so much more worried, as this draft has many players i would be very happy with. But if he does drop to the 9th, it means that Mikal and Carter and probably even Bamba are all gone, so it becomes a no brainer.

    If he passes the medical and is fine, I would be ecstatic to get him.

  17. Jack Bauer

    With the #10 pick in the 2018 NBA draft the New York Knicks select Miles Bridges.

    Book it they are going to finish 9th but get leapfrogged and pick 10th, because that’s just the way it works around here.

  18. Bruno Almeida

    At this point we might as well start talking ourselves into Miles, it’ll ease the pain.

    At least Chicago did win today.

  19. The Infamous Cdiggy

    Irrational thought:

    We need to “catch” Dallas at 6th worst record: I ran the Simulator @ Tankathon like 7-8 times, and they jumped to top-3 three times.

    Sidebar: during those sims Charlotte, who sits at #10 currently, jumped us twice into Top-3. Take from that what you will… lol.

  20. The Infamous Cdiggy

    Another sidebar:

    Hasn’t Orlando been in the lottery every year since Dwight Howard left? What’s that, 5 years at least? Why can’t they seem to put a team together?

  21. Brian Cronin Post author

    They did the standard “try to get good too quickly” route, which led to them trading the one star player that they actually drafted for Serge freakin’ Ibaka!!!

    You’d feel a lot better about the Magic if they had Oladipo and Sabonis on the team still, right?

  22. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

    A 12.6% chance of getting leapfrogged at number 9 is worse (that is, better for us) than I thought, but not negligible. It is about twice as likely than actually getting into the first three spots (6.1%). If we did somehow get to number eight in the reverse standings at the end of the season, then our chances of getting a top three pick go up to 10%, but our chances of getting leapfrogged also go up to 17.6%.

  23. ptmilo

    random aside but I thought this was amazing. Lance has played 63 games this year. If you separately take his season best in each of pts rebs assists steals and blocks you get this line:

    13/7/3/1/2

    Zaza came of the bench for GSW today and in 25 minutes:

    16/11/3/1/2

  24. The Infamous Cdiggy

    @36 Ohhh yeah that’s right, they did trade for Ibaka – that made no sense for them at all. If you don’t think your drafted young players will pan out for you, wouldn’t you then try to trade them for a chance to try again with a youthful player or future draftee?

    With Oladipo, you think it was a case where maybe they had his role miscast (wasn’t there talk of them thinking he could be a point guard?), or that they gave him up too soon?

  25. Bruno Almeida

    The thing with Orlando is that they might be the only franchise in the league that’s as bad as the Knicks at developing and retaining young talent. Even not playing Hezonja at all, not picking up his 4th year, only to play him after and find out he can actually contribute.

    So yeah, I’m skeptical on everyone who “busts” in Orlando, and I don’t think Oladipo and Sabonis would have turned out to be much on their team.

  26. Bruno Almeida

    To elaborate further on Oladipo, I don’t think he was even bad in Orlando. He was always a high effort decent to good defender, he made small, incremental improvements to his shooting every year he was there and he could always pass decently well (and lowered his turnover rate every year too).

    He was improving, albeit a bit slowly, but then Orlando drafted Hezonja and traded for Fournier and decided Oladipo had no place anymore on the team for god knows what reason right after they won 35 games (their best post-Dwight season to date).

    It’s just stupid management.

  27. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

    “But the way that it all played out, with him coming back so late in the season and trying to find his rhythm, it just didn’t work. The fit wasn’t there. That’s not a knock on anybody. I think if you go across the NBA, for everyone outside of a few superstar players, the fit really matters.”

    The quote is Kyle Korver talking about Isiah Thomas. I quote it here, because I think it’s something we overlook a lot when evaluating players. I think Kanter and Beasley looked much better before KP got injured because basically, their fit was very good to the roles they had. Now Kanter struggles more without KP beside him and Beasley has to play starter instead of playing against the other team’s bench for the most part.

  28. Brian Cronin Post author

    The more that I think about it, the more insane the Magic’s team-building was. So they’re 23-29 at the trade deadline, not good, not terrible, but with a relatively young team, so there’s actual hope for the future. They then traded Tobias Harris for literally nothing. Just dumped him for the sake of not having to pay him. Then they traded Oladipo and their #11 pick (Sabonis) for Serge freakin’ Ibaka. They then spent their #5 pick on Mario Hezonja and promptly hired a coach who had no interest in playing Mario Hezonja.

    That makes the Knicks seem logical in their team-building!

    Good thing that the current Knicks GM wasn’t the assistant GM for the Magic during all of that insani…oh, right.

  29. JK47

    Book it they are going to finish 9th but get leapfrogged and pick 10th, because that’s just the way it works around here.

    AKA Dolan’s Razor

  30. Bruno Almeida

    @43

    Man, I had forgotten about Tobias Harris. I don’t even think he’s that good but that was such a stupid deal.

  31. bobneptune

    Now Kanter struggles more without KP beside him and Beasley has to play starter instead of playing against the other team’s bench for the most part.

    But wait a minute… the intelligentsia here proved that to be hog wash by taking a sample size n=1 using a 22 year old blossoming superstar (Harden) who was coming off the bench as a 6th man for OKC!

    Everyone knows the argument every bench player always becomes a top 50 player of all time, right!

  32. rama in the JING

    Actually, Bob, the evidence is pretty overwhelming that the numbers stay fairly consistent no matter how many minutes a player gets, on what teams. So, yeah, actually, the intelligentsia are right, despite a random comment and a few counter-examples (Cole) to the contrary.

    But you keep you singing that song! Whatever makes you happy, man!

  33. bobneptune

    Actually, Bob, the evidence is pretty overwhelming that the numbers stay fairly consistent no matter how many minutes a player gets, on what teams. So, yeah, actually, the intelligentsia are right, despite a random comment and a few counter-examples (Cole) to the contrary.

    But you keep you singing that song! Whatever makes you happy, man!

    Hi Rama,

    Unlike many on this board I have my own set of beliefs in this arena, but am certainly open to being educated by being presented with evidence. Evidence being the operative word. Authority figures expressing their beliefs has some bearing but I am sure you would agree that doesn’t win the day. I have learned a lot reading and participating here, so I am going to ask you to produce the “EVIDENCE” from which you pontificate.

    And of course, “fairly significant” is a completely BS term…. not one from statistical analysis. It reeks of “fudge factor” or we used to say in the biochem lab “eyeball-o-metric guesstimation”!

    I am just guessing if you charted Player “X” playing against KP or Beasley, their numbers over a large sample size may look a lot different….. but I’m happy to be disabused of this notion with real facts.

    I actually hope you have good evidence to support your position because I like learning…. imagine that!

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