Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, August 30, 2014

2013-14 Game Thread: Knicks @ Jazz

My apologies. I thought that the game was later tonight. The Knicks apparently thought so, too.

Luckily, JR hit that huge three. Let’s go Knicks!

35 comments on “2013-14 Game Thread: Knicks @ Jazz

  1. Hugo Busto

    Utah announcer speculating Labron is going to the KNICKS next year with Melo and PHIL.

    Who makes this stuff up?!?!

  2. maxwell_3g

    what time did you think we started? 1am? its OK, you were better off not seeing the fiurst half, save for the country cole 5 minute highlight reel

  3. maxwell_3g

    im really coming to the realization that priggy smalls is one of our 3 best players, even if he makes the list almost by default

  4. Thomas B.

    So a couple of the bad possessions involved Shump getting the ball with under 10, then driving to the lane, being unable to find an opening for a shot so he kicks it back out with 4 left to shoot.

    Shouldn’t Shump maybe try to draw a foul in the paint or at least put up a shot since a shot near the rim is probably more likely to get points than a rushed deep three will?

    This seems to me to be bad coaching. First you don’t put people in a place where they can do well (don’t give Shump the ball with under 10 because he can’t create his own shot or create a shot for another at that time. Shump is not a scorer or play maker. Second, you have to teach the players what the best thing to do is. Clearly neither of these things have been done, so I blame the coaching staff.

  5. Dudley

    I want to see Shannon Brown.
    Can we just rest Melo…We are up 11/13 with 4m against the Jazz.
    Why not?

  6. Dudley

    Why wasn’t Toure Murry in for Hardaway at the end?
    Saw he played against LAL and Phoenix…only losing garbage time?

  7. lavor postell

    Shump is just not a good offensive player and he sucks at creating his own shot in any capacity. Woodson has done a poor job of putting him in positions to succeed, but Shumpert has regressed drastically in catch and shoot situations and also mixes in a couple of hopeless pull up mid-range jumpers a game. He is also terrible in transition and finishing at the rim, something he was very good at in his rookie season. He has no concept of what to do in those situations, has no ability to jump and finish off of one foot and seems to be pressing way too hard leading to him seeming as if he’s “always in a rush” as Clyde would say. Defensively I think he’s getting back to being a difference maker and that is definitely a positive.

    The Spurs are insane.

    Throughout the streak, San Antonio’s overall level of dominance has been staggering. Starting with the victory over the Pistons on Feb. 26, the Spurs rank No. 1 in the NBA in all of the following categories: offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, point differential, points, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, blocks and defensive rebounds.

    Along the way, seven different players – Marco Belinelli, Austin Daye, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Patty Mills and Tony Parker — have led the Spurs in scoring, a mark that reflects their depth, balance, ball movement and commitment to their offensive system.

    Here’s a quick look at San Antonio’s streak by the numbers…

    Average margin of victory: 16.6 points
    Average points scored: 111.2 points
    Average points conceded: 94.7 points
    Number of days since San Antonio’s last loss: 38
    Number of victories by 10+ points: 13
    Number of victories by 20+ points: 7
    Number of victories by 30+ points: 2
    Number of victories by less than five points: 0

    <a href="http://nba.si

  8. danielbubbs1

    don’t know if anyone has realized this, but ATL has Clinched any tiebreaker with the Knicks, so of course the Knicks are 2 games out and must finish with a better record than Atlanta to make the playoffs.

    It’s pretty simple, all the teams remaining games (both ATL and the Knicks) are against conference teams. Atl has 9 games Knicks have 7, and the Knicks trail the Hawks by 3 games in the loss column in conference games, and 2 games in the reg standings. So the Knicks tying atl in any way, if they go 7-0 and ATL goes 7-2, or the reverse….ATL will always have 1 game advantage in the tie breaker. So there you go.

  9. BigBlueAL

    I think 5-2 will get them in. I can see the Hawks finishing 4-5. 3-6 would be pushing it.

  10. er

    The Hawks schedule isnt difficult. But it isnt easy. I only see 2 guaranteed wins vs Bos and Mil.

    Nets, Heat, Bobcats, Pacers,and Bulls are all losses. That leaves 2 toss up games with Detroit and Cleveland. Cleveland has been playing well and you never know what you will get from Det.

    So the best Atl will do is 4-5 at worst 2-7.

    If the Knicks lose against Miami and Chicago they need to win the four games against the Nets and Rapts and beat Was to finish

    5-2

    Final records if Atl goes 4-5 and NYK goes 5-2

    36-46 Atl
    37-45 NYK

  11. Brian Cronin Post author

    Excellent point, Daniel, about the tiebreaker.

    Okay, so the Knicks have to pass them to beat them. Fair enough. I think they can still do that.

  12. Brian Cronin Post author

    Nets, Heat, Bobcats, Pacers,and Bulls are all losses.

    Kind of hard to call the Bobcats game an automatic loss when the Hawks beat them the last time they played. I’d have that game with Detroit and Cleveland. But in general, I think 3-6 sounds very possible. I, too, find it hard to believe they’ll actually beat all three of Detroit, Cleveland and Charlotte.

  13. Brian Cronin Post author

    Danny Ferry’s comments were interesting to read. I agree that he definitely found himself a strong coach in Budenholzer. I really like him a lot. This was a really great year for new coaches – Clifford, Budenholzer and Hornacek. Sort of makes you wonder why teams keep on doing mediocre retreads instead of trying out new voices. I also agree that the Hawks’ future is a lot brighter than bumbling to an 8th seed. They have a relatively decent young core with a lot of cap space. Ferry’s done good work there.

  14. Farfa

    Watching Philly-Atlanta was a bit strange. Until the last six minutes I was in awe of the masterful tank job the Hawks were orchestrating – a Korver badly missed free throw sighting! – , then something happened and Lou Williams decided he was trying to win the game alongside Millsap and Carroll, who are so scrappy I guess they wouldn’t try to lose on purpose even with a gun to the head. Since Philadelphia is tanking as well and Milwaukee is still 2 games behind, seeing that winning effort from ATL was enough to convince the Sixers it was their turn to lose, and they botched possession after possession, leading to an Atlanta win. It was really a show about who tanked harder (minus two or three good players trying to win, and a sometimes stupendous ball movement by the Hawks).

    Nonetheless, I’m still convinced Atlanta is tanking, and Ferry’s comments go exactly that way. Now is the time for the Knicks to show they still got a little bit of pride and go snatch the saddest playoff berth in the last few years, making us fans slightly happy and delusional in the process.

    BTW: if Indiana doesn’t keep the 1st seed, Miami will just steamroll us. Can you imagine switching everything against LeBron & co., while they try and reach optimal playoff form? In that case I predict 4-0 with 2opts average of scoring differential.

  15. Frank O.

    The Knicks will require a complete Atlanta collapse and even then it is not assured.
    It is difficult for good teams to beat better teams twice in a short period. The Knicks won’t beat the Raptors and Nets twice each. Indeed, they are more likely to lose all four of those games. They also will struggle to beat the Wizards.
    Essentially, they would have to become a team quite different than they are to make it. Period.
    Or Atlanta loses every game.

  16. Farfa

    Oh and guys. What about recaps? Since we’re right in the middle of a playoff hunt it would be great if every game, even the dullest ones (like last night) got some sort of recap with grades. They’re kinda funny you know.

  17. Frank

    Looks like we may have caught a break (hopefully not literally for Lowry) — Kyle Lowry’s knee apparently swelled up “immediately” after colliding with Lebron last night. I can’t imagine them risking him unnecessarily this close to the playoffs even if the are in danger of losing the Atlantic since BKN’s only 2 games behind them. Hopefully for Lowry’s sake it isn’t serious, but we have 2 games remaining against Toronto and they are a totally different team without him – a net +7/100 poss.

  18. Frank

    what’s hilarious is that it’ll probably take a 5-2 record to get in — which would get us to 37-45, exactly what SCHOENE projected, isn’t it? Amazing.

    Hollinger’s playoff odds say we only have a 14% chance of getting in, but I feel like it’s much closer to 50/50. I don’t think Atlanta wants the #8 seed and I think some of our key opponents will probably be resting guys the last few games, such as Lowry, or maybe some of the Nets guys.

    Big question is whether Timmy is out for the rest of the season with the ankle. That would be a huge loss since Shump is basically an offensive zero right now. If Timmy is out then the outcome of our season probably lies solidly on the shoulders of….JR Smith. If JR is good JR, we have a shot. If JR is anything but good JR, we’re done.

  19. lavor postell

    It’s April guys. We all know that means Melo is about to go bonkers and launch an all out assault on the scoring title until the end of the season. I think he got himself warmed up last night. Would suck if we lost THJ, who has been consistent with his effort even if he’s been awful defensively. Shump please remember how to make wide open threes and stop taking any kind of shot off the dribble.

  20. slovene knick

    Where would I find that SCHOENE projection for all teams. The nearer the end of the season comes the more it intrigues me.
    The method described in the article on ESPN is so complicated that I find it almost impossible to be any better than other eye-test/ GM / writer projection methods.
    Am I wrong? and is SCHOENE better than other ?

  21. er

    I doubt that the nets will rest tomorrow. The may do so for the matchup at Barclays however. Lowry could be huge.

    How much does it suck that Miami is now in first lol

  22. KnickfaninNJ

    Slovene Knick,

    Basically SCHOENE projects each players individual performance and how much each player will be used in order to figure out a team’s projected overall performance.

    It predicts an individuals overall performance basically by looking at his stats from the three previous years and adding in an age factor (young players are usually expected to improve and older players to get worse). It figures out the age factor using historical data to see how similar players from the past aged. It projects both offense and defense this way.

    It then projects how much usage each player will have based on who else is on the team. Their explanation is complicated, but seems to involve correcting for things like having two power forwards on the team who might end up sharing rebounds and adjusting for the historical tendency of teams to pass the ball. It also has an injury factor in the minutes projection that is based on the historical injury record of each player.

    Once it has player usages and expected performance per minute it projects how many points the team will score and how many it will give up and uses an established empirical correlation called Pythagorean wins to project a team’s overall won loss record. It should be noted that there seem to be no coach effects built into the model. This is, the number of wins a team is expected to get is the same whether Doc Rivers or Vinnie del Negro is the coach.

    It is complicated, but it seems a reasonable approach to me. However, I don’t know it’s overall historical accuracy. The predictions for the Knicks for this season and last are very interesting. Last season it projected many fewer wins that the Knicks actually got. This is season it projected 37 wins and the Knicks are, if anything, worse than that, but not by much. Since it ignores any coaching effects, this implies that Woodson should have been a candidate for coach of the year last year and is an average coach with an aging and bad…

  23. Farfa

    I guess that SCHOENE implies that the Camby-Kidd-Thomas-Wallace geriatric quadrifecta should have been a candidate for coach of the year, given they are the only variable removed year-to-year (yes, Copeland and Novak too; but it’s not like they had a veteran presence).

  24. KnickfaninNJ

    I agree, it does in a way. But you can’t leave out Woodson from the equation. Some coaches wouldn’t want help from their players in coaching, but Woodson let whatever was good that was happening with them last year and let it happen instead of trying to control it. Letting your players make you a success is not a bad thing in a coach. But I think also he got career years out of Smith, Copeland and Novak and a much better than expected Kenyon Martin.

  25. Farfa

    About that, you have a really good point. I think every successful (championship winner) coach has to let some of the player help in the coaching/communication part.

  26. johnno

    “But I think also he got career years out of Smith…”
    If you look at Smith’s numbers over the last 40 games or so (i.e., after he got in shape), they are equal to or better than most of his numbers from last year (except that he’s scoring about 2.5 points per game less than last year). In other words, I don’t think that last year was a career year and maybe, if he is fully recovered from his knee injury, he is worth his contract (assuming, of course, no more knucklehead implosions, which is a big assumption).

  27. swiftandabundant

    Biggest difference btwn this year and last year? The biggest difference is that there are a lot of little differences that add up to a big difference.

    Novak. Sure, he only did one thing. But he did it well. Very well. You put Novak in and if he was open at all, half the time he would make a 3 pointer. Sometimes from very far beyond the 3 point line. That means teams HAD to account for him. Lock him down with a defender and he’s useless. But he was a threat. Lots of games where Knicks were up by 4 to 6 points, Novak would come in and hit a couple of 3s and now the game was busted open. Same with Copeland. Bargnani might be able to do more things but none of those things he does quite as well. Shoots 3 poorly. And he didn’t add any defense or rebounding really either, or if he did it was marginal improvement over Novak and Copeland. So we lost those great 3 point shooters for a big Oaf who can’t shoot 3s as good, has a decent mid range game but didn’t add any defense or rebounding. Sure it made our team more “diverse” on offense. But is it better to be more diverse but not be as good at those things or to do one or two things really well?

    Kidd. We all see the lack of ball movement. Pablo gets into the game and the ball moves. Kidd played a TON of minutes last year. 4 out of 5 of our best starting 5 line ups had Kidd! His shooting dropped off bc he played too much, but even then he kept the ball moving, got Melo the ball where he liked it in the flow of the offense and kept guys like JR under control. He calmed the team down when opponents went on runs. Slow on defense but still crafty at getting steals and making smart plays.

    Wallace and Thomas. Kurt played valuable minutes early. So did Wallace. Veteran leadership. Blah blah blah.

    JR had a clear role as 6th man. JR clearly was struggling earlier this year. I think he’s back on track now but his struggles hurt us early.

    Finally, Felton. He was serviceable last…

  28. slovene knick

    Thanks KnickfaninNJ,

    I’m really intrigued to see a sheet that shows accuracy of different projections. How far are they off. For example:If Knicks win 36 games this year that means that there is a 1 game miss for SCHOENE. Add that for all the teams for a year and you come up with a number that shows you the projection accuracy. Compare different projections and you’ll see where SCHOENE stands.

    I agree that the approach is as good as it gets. But in some ways it replaces/abstracts the coach, schedule strength, conference strength and the more you shape the numbers with your personal observations and predictions further you are off I think.

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