meanwhile- huge day for the NYK today. crazy to think a bunch of dudes in suits may determine whether or not we will be able to field a contender-type team in the next 1-2 years. I am feeling that there is a 1-in-a-million chance we win this arbitration, but like Jim Carrey says…so you’re saying there’s a chance!!?

It really is crazy. Honestly, the fairness argument in a vacuum is an interesting enough argument that I could possibly see them buy into it. But man, it is so hard to argue against something that you negotiated for. “But I wasn’t paying attention to how unfair it was!” is such an iffy argument.

The only way Melo will become much MORE efficient is if he takes playing off the ball more seriously (which he has done very well at times), runs harder in transition, and shoots more 3s. For example, by comparison, LBJ had 154 possessions on basket cuts, whereas Melo only had 63 – and I think it’s fair to say they are both ball-dominant guys. Sure, LBJ has Wade to pass him the ball, but some of that difference has to be the fact that an actual basket cut was made. Melo also needs to get out in transition more (LBJ had 3x as many transition attempts as Melo) and needs to shoot the 3 more.

Yeah, I think that is a very fair assessment. While I’d like to see Melo play off the ball more, I really want to see more threes from him.

ruruland: Melo was .584 in the final 16 games last year, I think he can play at that level all year with Lin, but our number will be much more conservative.

I think it’s safe to say that Melo’s usage should slip some with Lin. we’ll be looking at about 19.5 fga adjusted for 36 mpg, and and about 8 fta.

What would Melo need to shoot on those numbers for the the Knicks frontcourt to reach 600 TS?

.570, EXACTLY

I think hoping for .570 is a good goal — I’d honestly be happy with anything from 0.55-0.57. Lots of ifs, but if Lin can be around the same TS, Amare gets to 58+, Chandler stays in the mid-60s+, and we can retain one of Novak/JR, this will be an elite offense.

The only way Melo will become much MORE efficient is if he takes playing off the ball more seriously (which he has done very well at times), runs harder in transition, and shoots more 3s. For example, by comparison, LBJ had 154 possessions on basket cuts, whereas Melo only had 63 – and I think it’s fair to say they are both ball-dominant guys. Sure, LBJ has Wade to pass him the ball, but some of that difference has to be the fact that an actual basket cut was made. Melo also needs to get out in transition more (LBJ had 3x as many transition attempts as Melo) and needs to shoot the 3 more.

peteygmaxcontract: That being said, ruruland I like your optimism but from a physical standpoint, Amare’s back issues are related to the health of his knees. With microfracture surgeries on both, his knees do not absorb enough of the shock his style of play puts on them. Thus, his back absorbs too much and has caused him to have a herniated disk.

Are you an orthopedist/trainer-type or did you just make this up? I’m asking seriously, not trolling.

The Honorable Cock Jowles:
Wow! .577? That’s elite.

From the finals, I’d rather have:

Harden
Durant
LeBron
Wade
Bosh
Ibaka
and yes, even Westbrook

over Anthony. Why? They’re better at basketball.

I don’t necessarily agree with THCJ’s “reasoning” but taking those players over Carmelo is pretty much right on. In fact, the only one that I’d have a problem with is Wade, since I think we are getting ready to see a pretty precipitous dropoff with him unless he learns to shoot the 3 way better than he does. And even though Ibaka and Westbrook are iffy, I’d probably take them over Melo at this point because they’re both, what, 22? And they will be signable to contracts under this CBA, not the last one.

I’m generally a Carmelo backer, but his contract is a serious albatross around the team’s neck. It’s no stretch to say he needs to play A LOT better this year to justify that — not saying last year was all his fault, but he still needs to play better.

Speaking of albatrosses-

I don’t think Amare is a lost cause at all, even if his contract is even more of an albatross. I think 11-12 was a little bit of a perfect storm for him – an injury to rehab, no team personnel to oversee his rehab and offseason training, his misguided plan to gain 15 lbs of muscle and to work on his dribbling (rather than turn himself into a knockdown mid-range shooter), and then the sudden addition of Tyson Chandler, who completely changed the offense as soon as he walked in the door. That’s not even taking into account the total lack of practice time during the year, his brother dying, etc.

I thought Amare played at least average defense after Woodson came on board, and by the way, he had a TS of 60 after that also. I think it’s entirely possible he has a big comeback year, averages 22 pts/9 reb per 36 on TS of 58+.

peteygmaxcontract: I’m going to back ruruland on this one. The hell does “better at basketball” mean? I specifically made an account to ask why you’re making ignorant comments.

That being said, ruruland I like your optimism but from a physical standpoint, Amare’s back issues are related to the health of his knees. With microfracture surgeries on both, his knees do not absorb enough of the shock his style of play puts on them. Thus, his back absorbs too much and has caused him to have a herniated disk. That isn’t a death sentence, but will force him to change his style of play from high-flyer to more post and elbow (kinda like timmy duncan and KG).

Yeah, that’s a good point. It’s certainly an optimistic projection. But I think we saw a much-lower-to-the-ground AMar’e last year post weight loss.

He still used his quickness, upper body strength and balance to finish quite well without getting high above the rim.

If that’s the athlete we’re getting moving forward, I think he can still be very efficient. It’s when the flexibility, quick-twitch movements leave him where he won’t be an NBA player anymore. I’d like to think those won’t be issues with the kind of injuries he;s had.

The Honorable Cock Jowles:
Wow! .577? That’s elite.

From the finals, I’d rather have:

Harden
Durant
LeBron
Wade
Bosh
Ibaka
and yes, even Westbrook

over Anthony. Why? They’re better at basketball.

I’m going to back ruruland on this one. The hell does “better at basketball” mean? I specifically made an account to ask why you’re making ignorant comments.

That being said, ruruland I like your optimism but from a physical standpoint, Amare’s back issues are related to the health of his knees. With microfracture surgeries on both, his knees do not absorb enough of the shock his style of play puts on them. Thus, his back absorbs too much and has caused him to have a herniated disk. That isn’t a death sentence, but will force him to change his style of play from high-flyer to more post and elbow (kinda like timmy duncan and KG).

The transition between Miller and Iverson is where you see significant efficiency drop-offs.

The transition from Iverson to Billups is where you see another large drop-off, though some of his 2008 numbers were affected by hand and wrist injuries.

What’s interesting about the two long stretches of .570+ TS is that they each occurred before Melo had really developed his 3pt game.

During his .577 TS stretch with Iverson he was only averaging about 1.7 3p fga per game — the prior offseason was really the one he started to work a lot on that aspect.

Given the improvements in Melo’s 3pt shot (which I think will continue to trend upward given his work shooting it) and the up-tick in distribution of 3pt shots, I think you’ll see Melo break his previous TS career high (.568) multiple times with a pg like Jeremy Lin, who is the most conventional penetrating pick and roll

SO, what is the minimum TS Melo needs for the Knicks frontcourt to have a combined .600TS???

27.9 ppg on 10/17.5 fga with 7.8/ 10.5 fta. (22.12)

Combined TS%: .6301

Melo was .584 in the final 16 games last year, I think he can play at that level all year with Lin, but our number will be much more conservative.

I think it’s safe to say that Melo’s usage should slip some with Lin. we’ll be looking at about 19.5 fga adjusted for 36 mpg, and and about 8 fta.

What would Melo need to shoot on those numbers for the the Knicks frontcourt to reach 600 TS?

.570, EXACTLY

The Honorable Cock Jowles:
Wow! .577? That’s elite.

From the finals, I’d rather have:

Harden
Durant
LeBron
Wade
Bosh
Ibaka
and yes, even Westbrook

over Anthony. Why? They’re better at basketball.

I have no idea what “better at basketball means.” Is that a Berri term?

Also, Wesbtrook’s career WS/48 is quite a bit lower than Melo’s, as is his TS%, so by what objective measure do you make your claim?

Secondly, Lebron, seriously, is that your insight to this board? Lebron is better than Melo?

And .577 is an elite number at that 30% usage. That was with less than 2 3point shot attempts per game and only 78% from the free throw line, three percentage points below Melo’s career average.

When we start getting up to 3.5-4 3pt attempts per game (even if it’s at his 5 year trend of 36%) and we get back to the 83% ft we saw the previous two years…….

With a penetrate and run pg, Melo will make a run at .600 TS the next couple of seasons.

You can criticize the projection, but understand that with those kind of point guards who get Melo those kind of looks his fg% comes up quite a bit.