(the Hill pick was just an example. he’s probably not terrible, although certainly we could’ve done better there).

Frank: Meanwhile, we all judge the draft records of GMs based on their actual picks, which of course seems like the natural thing to do. But who they draft is often just an indication of how things fall to them in the draft.

This is a great point. Luck is a factor in a lot of ways, including who is on the board when you pick.

Frank: Maybe in 2009, Donnie Walsh’s remaining best guys were Jordan Hill, then Lawson, then Blair. Wrong on Hill

I want to first say I am nitpicking here. I agree with your post overall and find it to be very strong. I don’t think Hill was really a “wrong” pick, though. It wasn’t a strong pick, but it wasn’t bad either. He’s only 24 this season and has a 13.8 PER, 0.088 WS/48. Has a good shot to be a pretty average NBA PF on his career. So far looks like an average pick to me, and I think people tend to over-exaggerate the mistake in part because their expectations were a bit unrealistic to begin with.

Meanwhile, we all judge the draft records of GMs based on their actual picks, which of course seems like the natural thing to do. But who they draft is often just an indication of how things fall to them in the draft. For instance, let’s say Dave Berri had the #7 pick in the 2009 draft, and let’s say the top 6 picks went Blake Griffin, Ty Lawson, DeJuan Blair, Tyreke Evans, James Harden, and Ricky Rubio. Berri looks down at his rankings and sees these guys as the 5 next-highest rated (and this is what they actually were in 2009):

Ahmad Nivins, Lester Hudson, Hasheem Thabeet, Jon Brockman, Terrence Williams

He knows that other than Thabeet, the other guys are sort of reaches at this point, but no one wants his pick. So he picks one of them. And he gets fired the next year. Doesn’t matter that he may have ranked other players correctly – it only matters who you picked. If you make one or two wrong calls on your draft rankings and that’s who you pick, no one cares whether 25 out of the other 29 were perfect calls.

Maybe in 2009, Donnie Walsh’s remaining best guys were Jordan Hill, then Lawson, then Blair. Wrong on Hill but right on the other 2 but we only see the wrong on Hill because that’s who was picked. Them’s the breaks.

IMHO, the job of an NBA GM is much harder when you don’t have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

If anything – I really hope that Donnie doesn’t fall victim to crowd-think when #17 comes up. If he LOVES Darius Morris or whoever at 17 then pick him regardless of where the mocks have him going. Maybe that’s how we got roped into Jordan Hill.

Berri’s system has Kevin Love as an elite player– as good as or better than Dwight Howard. That just isn’t true. Kevin Love’s team was 27th in defensive rating and Dwight Howard’s team was 3rd. Now, I know there are other players on the floor and all that, but it’s pretty clear to me that Dwight Howard’s impact on a basketball game is far, far greater than Kevin Love’s. They’re not comparable players. Trade those two straight up and you will see Minnesota get a lot better and Orlando get a lot worse.

That’s not to say Berri’s stats are useless– they’re very interesting– but he clearly places too much emphasis on rebounding.

The Honorable Cock Jowles: What does that mean, the “team level?” You mean individual rebounds? Steals? Defensive rating?

Listen, you are such a Berri enthusiast… yet you seem to have no grasp on what he’s actually done to arrive at his stats. Read his own words on what he’s done, maybe brush up on your econometrics if necessary, and then get back to me.

CRJoe: Hahaha, was thinking the same thing… It’s like tenebrous went to grammar school…

But no seriously, THCJ & Ted are far more alike…

I’m telling you, tenebrous is Ted’s stoner alter ego.

You guys seen the Jimmer interview where he says NY and Utah are his top two teams…. and NY is 1A and Utah is 1B?