Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

193 comments on “2011 Game Thread: Knicks vs. Kings

  1. tastycakes

    I think last year around this time, Mike had given up on game threads and everyone was tuning out. What a difference a year makes!

    There is no way we should lose tonight.

  2. Veal Scalabrine

    Speaking to Amar’e and his charisma in the spotlight (addressed in the past thread): today’s “Bullets” on TrueHoop feature an observation by Henry Abbott about the evolution of Amar’e into a true superstar since he came to the bright-lights of NYC, even though, statistically speaking, he’s putting up numbers rather consistent with his career averages. The interesting conclusion he naturally draws is that Amar’e is Exhibit A in the argument against those who assert that location no longer matters in today’s digital, globalized world.

    Now, Amar’e deserves all the credit in the world for embracing the NYC “stage” and flourishing on and off the court. But, make no mistake, the stage presented by the Big Apple has been indispensable to Amare’s elevation from basketball beast to burgeoning cultural icon. Indeed, it’s a classic example of a “marriage made in heaven”.

    Granted, not all star FA’s (LeBron, et al.) care much about market-driven status-elevation amongst the other criteria that influence a player’s preferred destination ($$$, winning, etc.). But, inasmuch as a fair amount of star players do care about cultural “status”–assuming they can get the $$$ as well–can we put the en-vogue assertion that “markets don’t matter in today’s age” to rest, once and for all????

    And as for the big-time FA’s coming up over the next few years, I hope they’re noticing what NYC has done for Amar’e and his overall “brand recognition”. My guess is that some will take a $$$-haircut to be in Amare’s shoes right now.

    Location, location, location. Go Knicks, and go NYC!

  3. latke

    Mozgov is about to shutdown demarcus cousins. He’s going to sing russian love songs to him, lull him to sleep, then snatch the ball from him for the breakaway slamma jamma.

  4. Robert Silverman

    Someone get the device from Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and hook me up so I can forget that quarter ever happened

  5. David Crockett

    To get back in this we’ll need to get stops and to get to the FT line. I’ll be interested to see if we can do that.

  6. Veal Scalabrine

    Yeah, I was surprised, too. Thought maybe Stoudemire was yelling on his behalf like he did on Chandler’s alley-oops in the Portland game.

  7. Nick C.

    I hadn’t chimed in on the Dalembert talk because I thought he stunk this year but he seems to be making his presence felt a little bit.

  8. BigBlueAL

    Chris Broussard just tweeted:

    “NYK will trade Anthony Randolph for 1st round pick within next 2 weeks, sources say. Minny, Indy, Portland among likeliest destinations”

    I say trade him back West so he doesnt come back to haunt them on a team in the East lol.

  9. Nick C.

    BigBlueAL: Chris Broussard just tweeted:“NYK will trade Anthony Randolph for 1st round pick within next 2 weeks, sources say. Minny, Indy, Portland among likeliest destinations”I say trade him back West so he doesnt come back to haunt them on a team in the East lol.   That sounds like something for nothing from the Knicks end since it doesn’t look like he’ll ever get any PT.

  10. BigBlueAL

    Hopefully Knicks do what they did at home vs the Nets in a similar game, trail at the half but come out and build a double-digit lead in the 3rd quarter.

  11. Brian Cronin

    Donnie’s at the game with Leon Rose. No wonder Wil is playing so crappy.

    That’s really kind of weird. What’s up with that?

  12. Frank O.

    David Crockett: Sacto’s size has been a big problem tonight.  

    Seriously? On virtually any other night I’d agree with you, but tonight they are missing wide, wide open looks.
    Amare can’t hit anything.
    Love the Hamster commercial!!!!

    You Can Get With This!

  13. David Crockett

    Frank O.:
    Seriously? On virtually any other night I’d agree with you, but tonight they are missing wide, wide open looks.
    Amare can’t hit anything.
    Love the Hamster commercial!!!!You Can Get With This!  

    Missed a TON of open Js, but a lot of the looks at the rim have been contested/altered.

  14. David Crockett

    latke: entitlement basketball by the knicks  

    Do you think so? They look travel weary, but not like they’re taking Sacto lightly. (With these road trips, it’s often not the first night back it’s the next.)

  15. BigBlueAL

    Knicks bench getting exposed tonight. If they arent getting setup with wide-open looks they cant get any shots on their own.

  16. Nick C.

    Good. Lord I think I’m gonna see better basketball when I go watch my 10 year old nephew tomorrow.

  17. David Crockett

    “Anytime we hold a team under 100 points we should win.”
    – Mike D’Antoni, the anti-Popovich

  18. latke

    David Crockett:
    Do you think so? They look travel weary, but not like they’re taking Sacto lightly. (With these road trips, it’s often not the first night back it’s the next.)  

    They are playing relatively hard, but they are not executing. You could call it fatigue, but I promise you if it was the Bulls or Heat out there, the Knicks would be executing their offense a whole lot better.

  19. ess-dog

    Terrible. Just bloody awful. Wil and Ray have done complete 180′s. Walsh should have “Carmelo Anthony” and “Chris Paul” respectively tattooed backwards on their foreheads.

  20. Frank O.

    The Knicks legs are dead. Man, watching them try to push the ball, they just don’t have it.
    I mean, their 3 pt shots, the guys are getting no lift.

  21. David Crockett

    Can’t do much about a night like tonight. The Knicks are shooting 29% raw %. That’s really awful.

  22. Fleet19

    DW should trade fields WC and DG tonight for carmelo, we will win 12 less games this year, but we would NEVER have to watch something as disgusting as this ever again. (I wouldn’t make the that trade, just mad right now)

  23. Thomas B.

    In the earlier thread didn’t someone say the knicks would win this one by 15. Well if you placed a bet based on that information, YOU LOST.

  24. maurice lucas

    Look at the upcoming schedule. Do you feel comfortable the Knicks can stay above 500 before the All Star break? Or even end of January?

  25. Brian Cronin

    DW should trade fields WC and DG tonight for carmelo, we will win 12 less games this year, but we would NEVER have to watch something as disgusting as this ever again. (I wouldn’t make the that trade, just mad right now)

    To fully put into perspective how silly that is, you need only look back eight days ago when Carmelo Anthony’s team lost to this same Kings team by 20 points.

  26. Brian Cronin

    Also, do note that the Knicks are playing without Gallo (3-3 without him) and he’ll be back very soon, so things are not so dire.

  27. Fleet19

    Brian Cronin: To fully put into perspective how silly that is, you need only look back eight days ago when Carmelo Anthony’s team lost to this same Kings team by 20 points.  (Quote)

    I was just kidding – just mad at the lack of shooting % toinght… that why I added the last sentance.

  28. Brian Cronin

    I was just kidding – just mad at the lack of shooting % toinght… that why I added the last sentance.

    Fair enough! My bad. And yeah, this was definitely a brutal loss.

  29. d-mar

    This wasn’t a loss due to lack of effort, they were just completely out of sync.Is there a stat available for teams’ records at home after a long road trip? You hear announcers talk all the time about it, but I’d be really interested to see the win/loss breakdown.

  30. Jimmy C

    If I didn’t have ‘Anchorman’ to switch to for 3 minute spurts, I may have thrown my TV through the window tonight.

    Not sure what was up with DW and Leon Rose sitting together, but combine that with everyone’s horrid performance — forget just WC — and it really starts to look like the Melo thing is taking its toll. Not to say anything is or would have been decided, but they didn’t just look “tired” tonight; they looked downright dejected. Late night? Just a late flight out? Probably a little bit. But this is honestly the first time all year I felt like they just gave up. Which happens — they’re human. It just rarely, if ever, happens to really good teams.

    Either something has already been decided, and the players know, or the uncertainty of it all is really starting to take a toll.

  31. BigBlueAL

    We dont have to worry about a Melo trade now, no way after watching them play tonight the Nuggets would want anybody from the Knicks. lol

  32. Frank O.

    Well, they’re not good enough to win while taking the night off. But this is such an anomaly, I bury this one and forget about it.

  33. tastycakes

    Sorry guys, I’ve been out posting “Missing: Wilson Chandler” posters in my neighborhood all night.

    If we had shot 38% tonight we would have won the game. Ridiculous.

  34. daJudge

    Just a bad game, plain and simple. It happens and sometimes it happens against teams that aren’t so great. Very poor shooting and no kick outs off the P&R to the wing. Even if they did, the wing would probably have missed the shot. This system needs a functional, competent and savvy point guard. Raymond is injured and should have sat out. It was clear to me from watching him from the start. If he sat, we could all chalk up the loss to his and Gallo’s injury. TDDWTDD, but that’s not playing the point and he’s hurt too. The short rotation takes its toll and Coach is kind of laissez faire, doesn’t change on the fly too well. Also, Turiaf out again. Did you see the D’Antoni’s reaction regarding the injury during his post game? Boys, and maybe girls (I’m not sure)—love Turiaf, but we need a stud Center bad. I can’t explain Wilson’s ineptitude tonight.

  35. BigBlueAL

    As frustrating and inexplicable as tonight was there is no need to overreact. I assume/hope this team will not come out flat/dead-legged on Monday and might even have Gallo back. Considering the schedule the rest of the week though I dont want to call Monday a must-win but lets just say I wont be as rational after that game if we lose as I am tonight.

  36. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    According to Nate Silver, it’s beneficial to a team to have a chucker like Carmelo so that his teammates are more efficient. So you’re essentially giving up those 5 additional points per game in Carmelo and getting them back from his teammates. Keep in mind that he doesn’t contribute much to net possessions, so he’s not doing much other than that. Doesn’t really sound very efficient to me.

    Also, he fails to mention the other changes between the Nuggets’ teams. In addition to Carmelo being added to the roster:

    -Camby played 1500 additional minutes
    -Nene played 250 additional minutes, and was in his second year (which is typically a year in which play substantially improves)
    -Andre Miller was added to the team and played over 2800 minutes
    -Junior Harrington and Rodney White no longer were on the roster (posting 2000 and 1500 minutes, respectively, of sub 0.000 WS/48 play)
    -Nikoloz Tskitishvili had his minutes reduced by 1000, after posing a 4.9 in 2002-03

    So yeah, it was all Carmelo.

  37. rama

    jon abbey: that was a rough one, we need Gallo back.pretty interesting take on Melo by Nate Silver just posted:http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/why-carmelo-anthony-is-the-ultimate-team-player-and-what-advanced-stats-miss-about-him  (Quote)

    This doesn’t seem irrational to me, THCJ, and I’m ALMOST as much against bringing on Anthony as you are.

    But then…we already have a player whose presence substantially raises the shooting percentage of the players around him when he’s on the court. His name is Danilo Gallinari, and his team’s eFG% is about 6 points higher when he’s on the court. (Don’t know the difference in TS%, but I saw the eFG% a few weeks back.) I would imagine it’s for a similar reason: his man simply cannot leave him to double on D, creating oppportunities for other players.

    And the benefit is that his own TS% is substantially higher than Melo’s. And the other benefit is that he’s 1/4 the cost. Which is why I’m STILL against bringing on Melo in a trade. (Signing him for $7 mil/year less? Sure – then his value is good enough per dollar that we can find a way to bring another quality big man here, which is what we really need.)

  38. Jimmy C

    “The team out there is the strategy,” Walsh said before the game, pointing to the court. “And then we have [salary-cap] room next year and the year after. We want to build this team. Period. That’s what we’ve been doing.”

    Our boy DW before yesterday’s game. Heavy, heavy emphasis on BEFORE, but still: I believe him when he says that. The piece went on to talk about dealing Randolph for a pick, but who’s to say Walsh isn’t going to use it for a backup big or PG? Particularly after this horrific loss, the need for both of those things was thrown into high relief.

    After sleeping off my combustible refreshment haze, I’m a little more tempered in my view that something was definitely going on with the team last night — that the Melodrama was really starting to take its toll. But I still feel that was a contributing factor, particularly with WC. Maybe Walsh and D’Antoni haven’t conveyed it well enough, but if that really is “the team” out there on the court like Walsh said, they have to communicate that better and not let the media dangle their futures around on a string.

    I fully expect Gallo to come out firing Monday. Hopefully the rest of the team decides to join him.

  39. Frank O.

    I think the Silver analysis is very interesting.
    I too have struggled with Carmelo’s efficiency v. the Knicks he might replace.
    I also wonder if D’Antoni’s system, which emphasizes finding the best shot and burying it, last night not withstanding, and the fact that Amare clearly would be the dominant go-to player on the Knicks, would lift some of the burden from Carmelo and help him to play more efficiently. Anthony has never played with a player like Amare.
    —-
    On another front, I think we are seeing what the absence of Gallo might do to the team. I think Williams and Walker are useful in short stints, but they probably can’t sustain that level of play and then their weaknesses begin to show.
    Gallo is a much more complete player, who contributes across the range of skills. Williams and Walker do not.
    Still too small a sample to draw any kind of conclusions, but fairly convinced that Williams cannot displace Gallo.

  40. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Frank O.: I also wonder if D’Antoni’s system, which emphasizes finding the best shot and burying it, last night not withstanding, and the fact that Amare clearly would be the dominant go-to player on the Knicks, would lift some of the burden from Carmelo and help him to play more efficiently. Anthony has never played with a player like Amare..  

    This is exactly why I don’t want him. Risk.

  41. ess-dog

    I still don’t know why D’Antoni can’t open up the rotation on nights like this. Especially for Mozgov when the Kings are scoring in the post at will. Pull Chandler and get Amare out in space a little. Or even play Bill Walker a little more. He was 4-6 in 15 minutes… I mean NO ONE was able to score. The regulars were tired.

    Re: Silver, if Carmelo were actually that good, wouldn’t his teammates’ “open looks” manifest themselves in his assist ratio more? His assist ratio isn’t bad, but he’s clearly no Lebron or even Kobe. I do think Nene’s stats are probably inflated because when Carmelo drives to the hole on a double team, Nene probably sees a lot of unguarded 2 foot putbacks.

    I don’t mind Carmelo for what he is – a low level all star or just shy of being an all star who should make 12-14 mil as a championship team’s 3rd guy.

  42. ess-dog

    ess-dog: I do think Nene’s stats are probably inflated because when Carmelo drives to the hole on a double team, Nene probably sees a lot of unguarded 2 foot putbacks..  

    meaning easy scores off of Carmelo misses.

  43. Z-man

    There was an article posted a while back that discussed how Carmelo takes a high percentage of contested shots relative to other scorers, e.g. Kevin Martin. This supports Mr. Silver’s contention about how Melo makes his teammates better by drawing attention away from them. He gives hypothetical reasons (Melo can get his shot off late in the shot clock so teammates can be more discerning, etc.) that aren’t all that far-fetched.

    I truly don’t get the Melophobia. Melo is about the same caliber of player as Paul Pierce at 26 years old. I have said this before and Silver makes a similar comparison. This team would be a defensive center and backup PG away from being a serious contender. They have some differences to their game, but they both represent the same kind of threat on the floor, someone who can score from anywhere on anybody at any time and must be the focal point of the opposing defense. To have two or three of those players in their respective primes, one on the inside, one outside, surrounded by good, smart role players, is a championship formula.

    I am sensing that the team is wearing down now, Felton and Amare are losing steam, banged up from playing so many minutes and needing to do too much. If we can lose only one of Gallo/Chandler/Fields, the trade will absolutely make us a better team and takes some of the load off of those two guys. Does anyone really think that Carmelo Anthony would not make Amar’e, Felton, and the others better? That D’Antoni wouldn’t be able to figure out how to maximize his talents? It is the coach’s job to ensure that the shot distribution is appropriate, and D’Antoni is up to the task. Yes, we would still need a back-up PG and a true C, but the core of the team would be:

    Amar’e
    Melo
    Gallo or Chandler
    Felton
    Fields or Chandler
    Williams
    Walker
    Turiaf
    TD
    Mozgov

    Again, if Melo doesn’t work out, there would be teams lining up to take him and his contract off our hands. He is not Steph,…

  44. flossy

    Anyone heard this thing about how the Bobcats might give Gerald Wallace to the Cavs for nothing but the LeBron trade exception? Are you kidding me? If that’s true why not just offer the Curry and whatever it takes to sweeten the deal enough (couple second round picks? Cash? Randolph even)?

    Sure he’s a bit redundant but unlike Melo he’d actually improve our defense and rebounding, and he’d be a beast as a stretch 4 in this system allowing us to keep all of Fields/Gallo/Chandler (one of whom–Chandler maybe?) would presumably excel in a sixth man role.

  45. Z-man

    Here are their career stats up to age 26:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=piercpa01&y1=2004&p2=anthoca01&y2=2011

    Clearly Pierce is a better passer and a somewhat better defender; Mello is the better rebounder. Their usage and shooting stats are remarkably similar. Their win shares are also similar.

    So, looking back on his career since that point, if we were having the same discussion about a 26 year-old Paul Pierce, would people be freaking our as much as they are about Melo? I, for one, think that Melo had MORE upside than Pierce did back then.

  46. Jimmy C

    ess-dog: I still don’t know why D’Antoni can’t open up the rotation on nights like this.Especially for Mozgov when the Kings are scoring in the post at will.Pull Chandler and get Amare out in space a little.Or even play Bill Walker a little more.   

    It’s amazing how stubborn he is. For someone who touts an offense that thrives on intuition, instinct, improvisation and an element of risk, he seems to have no interest in applying this to his use of rotations. Re: putting Moz in, I was thinking the same thing last night. It’s not like the Kings are money from the stripe, and refs were letting a lot of stuff go anyway. It was the perfect situation to give him some burn.

    flossy: Anyone heard this thing about how the Bobcats might give Gerald Wallace to the Cavs for nothing but the LeBron trade exception?Are you kidding me?If that’s true why not just offer the Curry and whatever it takes to sweeten the deal enough (couple second round picks?Cash?Randolph even)?  

    Love this idea. I’m sure DW has all this on the radar screen, but I really hope he’s keeping an eye on this situation. He’s a little expensive and his reckless abandon poses its own risks, but he’s so versatile, able to guard almost anyone on the court, I think he’d be a perfect fit for SSOL.

  47. ess-dog

    @113,

    “If we can lose only one of Gallo/Chandler/Fields, the trade will absolutely make us a better team and takes some of the load off of those two guys. Does anyone really think that Carmelo Anthony would not make Amar’e, Felton, and the others better?”

    You make some good points Z-man, but I would say there’s about a 5% chance that we come through a Melo trade while losing only 1 of Gallo/Chandler/Fields for many reasons. First, if Denver keeps Carmelo the whole season, they A. get more revenue by selling more tickets the 2nd half of the season, B. get more revenue from a playoff run, and C. will get something in a sign and trade once Carmelo leaves (one or two 1sts, a good player, who knows?)
    Therefore, something like Chandler + AR as a pick + Curry is not really worth their time. To make it worth their time they would need A. a lottery pick, B. a good young player (Chandler or Gallo), C. taking on a bad contract (Harrington or Smith), D. instant savings (fatboy Curry.)
    So the question is, will we take back Harrington or somebody or instead give a little more a.k.a. a 2nd good young player. I think that’s going to be the kicker in any deal for us. The Curry savings is inconsequential – they will save that money once Melo leaves via free agency anyway. They want MORE savings. Plus probably a 2nd useful player or minus the savings, a 2nd good prospect. Otherwise, why not just take it on the chin via free agency, have a fire sale, get some draft picks and save a ton of $$?
    Yes, Melo holds the cards here, but an extra half season with Melo isn’t as bad as it seems…

  48. SeeWhyDee77

    Wow..I’ve missed quite a bit. Where do I start? Hmm..RE: loss to the Kings. Yes I have a huge problem with Sactown apparently having our number..but..ehhhh..we just came off a helluva 4 game west coast boot camp. So it’s a little understandable to be flat. Not making excuses, but it is what it is. RE: Trade rumors. Let me make this abundantly clear..Melo has his detractors and flaws, but he would make the team better. Just not at the price. If we HAVE to give up a 1st(while giving up on AR-I say Mike D should make a serious effort to give him a Camby-esque role), Cap room, AND at least 2 of the triumvirate of Rooster, Chandler and Fields..then I say let Melo go to Houston, Jersey or stay in Denver and work on backcourt depth and center depth. That said, I’m not sure if anybody’s picked Barron up yet, if not a 2 for 1 treade is in order with a Barron signing..but a AR/Mason for Mayo works for me. Mayo’s game seems to fit this offense better. His arrival would problee hurt Fields a little..but I see Fields as being fully capable of being a Mini Chandler with higher IQ. So maybe walsh flips Chandler somehow for Dalembert or Camby and a pick. Somethin like Chandler/Curry for Camby/Fernandez or Dalembert and a pick..or maybe try and pull Sessions and a pick away from Cleveland if he can get the salaries to match without losin too much. I haven’t tried to match salaries, but what I’m gettin at is at this point improving the depth looks like a better option considering the situation with Melo.

  49. JK47

    Nate Silver is a guy I respect a lot, and his article basically says with a lot more clarity what I’ve tried to say here many times. I think the same thing Nate is saying applies to Amar’e– pretty much every player on the Knicks has seen his TS% go up since Amar’e has come to town. These guys have all seen a bump in their TS% from last year:

    Ray Felton +.017
    Wilson Chandler +.038
    Danilo Gallinari +.025
    Ronny Turiaf +.076

    Landry Fields is a rookie, but he’s shooting more accurately in the NBA than he did in the Pac-10. Shawne Williams, who was never even an average shooter, is shredding the nets to the tune of a .667 TS%. The only guy who on the team who is logging significant minutes who is actually shooting worse since Amar’e joined the team is Toney Douglas, and I personally think that is because of small sample size: Toney D is simply not a .575 TS% shooter and his 2009-2010 season was kind of flukey.

    Last year the Knicks were 17th in offensive rating. This year we’re 8th– a pretty nice improvement. It’s pretty evident to me that Amar’e has made things easier for everyone, and that the offense as a whole is much better. To call Amar’e a “disappointment” because his TS% is lower than usual is really to not see the forest for the trees.

  50. Z-man

    @121 “Comparing him to Pierce casts him in a particularly optimistic light… he also looks exactly (or even lesser than) Vince Carter after eight seasons. And… yuck.”

    Fair point, I would concede that Melo’s downside is Carter-esque, but doubt that he would become that. While their stats sre similar, Melo is a different kind of player, more of a big, versatile SF who can bump and grind and get to the rim (a la Pierce) than a SG/SF hybrid. I agree that that is the risk you take, but I personally think it is a good gamble. Even Carter was a marketable max contract, underscoring my point that we don’t have to think in terms of being stuck with Melo; he will not be hard to trade.

    @122
    “but I would say there’s about a 5% chance that we come through a Melo trade while losing only 1 of Gallo/Chandler/Fields for many reasons.”

    In that case, I would not make the trade. I am specifically adressing the question of whether we should trade for him even if we only have to give up one of those three…

    @124
    “I think that despite Stoudemire’s success, he’s been a disappointment. Worst shooting year since he was 21. Low rebounding too.”

    I think that some of his games have been disappointing, e.g. last night. Overall, though, I am thrilled with his production and influence on the team. To label him a disappointment seems harsh to me.

    While I am aslo thrilled with Felton’s all-star level play, I think he has regressed somewhat lately. Both he and Amar’e are clearly playing banged up, and at some point they are going to need to play less minutes, or I can see this trend continuing.

  51. latke

    @ 122 what about the best possible offer we can make outside giving up 2 of those 3? Say this: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4tcxrf9

    AR would become a pick, and douglas could probably be moved for a late first rounder if Denver preferred, and we’d also include our 2014 1st rounder and $3 million. Chandler could be Gallo or Fields if Denver preferred.

    I really doubt Denver wants to keep ‘Melo past the trade deadline. It’s been a pretty big distraction for the whole team, and any expirings they’d take back would last through next season, meaning they’d end up paying a lot more and would screw themselves out of a lot of cap space that year (or saved $s).

    One thing that I’m really curious about is what the odds are that Nene opts out this summer. He’s due $11.6 million, and if he did opt out and we didn’t do a trade for Carmelo, we could offer him a contract starting at a bit less than that and resign Chandler at the same time. Would Denver, minus Carmelo, be able to justify offering those kind of dollars to a 28 year old? If not, the only teams with cap space that I could see offering him $s are the Thunder, Pacers, and Raptors, and they’d probably only have around the same amount as NY. If we renounced Chandler, we could easily outbid any of those teams — a contract starting at $13 million would probably get the deal done, and if we managed to get Turiaf or Mozgov off our books, we could probably still resign Chandler.

    IMO, this might be our best move.

  52. BigBlueAL

    Amar’e is shooting at almost career low levels yet is still pretty efficient especially considering his usage. He does though have career high assist and block rates and has lowered his TO rate from the beginning of the season.

    The Knicks are 6th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defense. Those are some pretty damn good improvements from last season so far Amar’e has alot to do with it.

  53. Z

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01.htmlI hate to sound crass, but I think that despite Stoudemire’s success, he’s been a disappointment. Worst shooting year since he was 21.Low rebounding too.  

    Yeah, but my point is, even as a disappointment, the franchise is improved. Not to discredit you as a witness or anything (you did nail the Fields pick, and have a keen understanding of statistics and their uses), but in July you said Amar’e was “a frightening signing if it doesn’t snare LeBron”. (It even seems in the same thread that you were arguing that Jerome Jordan was a better option than Amar’e). http://knickerblogger.net/knicks-sign-amare/

    Here we are six months later, and it is now Carmelo Anthony who is giving you the heebie-jeebies. But we actually have gotten (a lot!) better with Amar’e on the team, despite your initial fears. Couldn’t the same turn out to be true about Carmelo Anthony?

  54. ess-dog

    @ 128,
    I think Denver would do that trade. How the hell did they give Harrington a 5 year roughly 30 million dollar deal? Who were they bidding against?
    It’s a weird trade though. We get Melo and mini-Melo. Chucker and Chucker Jr.
    The problem is, doesn’t that take us out of contention for CP3, Deron or Howard? Maybe we can move big Al before the next deadline? But adding Harrington just might do it (I believe that is what held up the Nets talks recently.)
    Billups and even JR Smith can be traded as value but Harrington? That would be a nice piece for them to move…
    Jeez, I just still don’t know what the hell they were thinking.
    But I guess we’ve had first-hand knowledge Fraggle Al.

  55. Ben R

    latke – I think if we can somehow avoid having to get Melo and he gets traded this year I think Nene will be up for grabs. I would love to trade for him. I would actually prefer Nene to Marc Gasol or Mcgee or Jordan. He would be about perfect both next to Amare and spelling Amare so we could cut his minutes back to 32-34 during the regular season and not suffer while he’s on the bench.

    As for Amare’s season this year; his shotblocking and passing have been pleasant surprises and his turnovers are way down of late, in fact his turnover rate is making it’s way back to his career average, but he does need to shoot better. He forces it way too much and we are a better team when all of our shots flow naturally out of the offensive ball movement. He needs to stop concerning himself with being the “focus” and just allow to game to come to him. When our offense is flowing properly teams have to choose whether to stop our shooters or stop Amare, but when Amare forces it then we are easier to defend.

    On a side note why don’t we run very much pnr with Amare anymore? We’ve gone away from it and back to the drop the ball to Amare on the elbow. I think if a team wants to put all it’s resources into stopping Amare and the pnr we should let them and just score with other people until they have to open up.

  56. ess-dog

    Ben R: On a side note why don’t we run very much pnr with Amare anymore? We’ve gone away from it and back to the drop the ball to Amare on the elbow. I think if a team wants to put all it’s resources into stopping Amare and the pnr we should let them and just score with other people until they have to open up.  

    I was noticing this too. It’s like they want to get the shot off faster than the low block p&r can provide, so they just do the elbow handoff which usually leads to a rushed shot. We should at least attempt some p&r’s to keep teams honest.

  57. Jimmy C

    ess-dog:
    I was noticing this too.It’s like they want to get the shot off faster than the low block p&r can provide, so they just do the elbow handoff which usually leads to a rushed shot.We should at least attempt some p&r’s to keep teams honest.  

    I agree they should try it more than they have been — which is to say I don’t remember seeing even a single P&R attempt in the last few games. But someone a few games ago posited — I think correctly — that teams are simply taking it away. We’ve been seeing bigger lineups, with guys like Dalembert getting much more PT than usual. Basically making us live and die by the 3 ball. And judging by our 3-3 record the last six games, it looks like that approach is much more potentially succesful than just letting Ray and Amare run amok with the P&R.

    The result is a lot of what we’ve seen lately, and the last two games in particular: Amare getting the ball on the elbow, guys taking three seconds to clear out, and Amare forcing the issue, assuming he’s going to get the call every time. But to the extent that it’s coincided with Gallo being out, I think once Rooster gets back in there and our spacing improves, we’ll see more defenses focus more on the perimeter and maybe the P&R will be a more readily available option.

  58. rama

    Daddy –

    Indiana has said that Granger is untouchable. I don’t think they’d touch him for Gallo.

    latke: <POne thing that I’m really curious about is what the odds are that Nene opts out this summer. He’s due $11.6 million, and if he did opt out and we didn’t do a trade for Carmelo, we could offer him a contract starting at a bit less than that and resign Chandler at the same time. Would Denver, minus Carmelo, be able to justify offering those kind of dollars to a 28 year old? If not, the only teams with cap space that I could see offering him $s are the Thunder, Pacers, and Raptors, and they’d probably only have around the same amount as NY. If we renounced Chandler, we could easily outbid any of those teams — a contract starting at $13 million would probably get the deal done, and if we managed to get Turiaf or Mozgov off our books, we could probably still resign Chandler.IMO, this might be our best move.  <A class=comment_quote_link title="Click here or select text to quote comment" onmousedown="quote('310428', document.getElementById('name310428').innerHTML, 'comment','div-comment-3104

    Agreed. If Denver doesn't have a substantial asset in return for Melo, why wouldn't Nene opt out? No way he can't get $12mil per year to start. I guess I'd take over Gasol and the others, too, though I still would prefer Tyson Chandler, who IS in fact a free agent.

  59. latke

    rama: though I still would prefer Tyson Chandler, who IS in fact a free agent.

    Chandler would be better, but as Dallas is over the cap and owns Chandler’s bird rights, I’d say it’s a virtual guarantee that they pay however much it takes to keep him. Gasol, despite being an RFA, and a real long shot, seems more feasible than Chandler.

  60. Brian Cronin

    I would imagine that the uncertainty about the CBA would keep Nene from opting out.

    But yeah, I agree that my dream scenario is Denver dealing Melo to New Jersey and then dealing Nene to the Knicks for Curry and AR. Heck, in that scenario, the Knicks could take on one of their dead weight players, since the plan would be to get over the cap so that they could re-sign WC next year.

    Felton
    Fields
    Gallo
    Amare
    Nene

    with a bench of

    WC
    Douglas
    Turiaf
    Mozgov
    Azubuike
    Dead Weight from Denver
    Possible free agent (they likely will no longer have the MLE to give, as I don’t see any way the owners allow the MLE to remain, but they’ll probably be able to sign someone)

    That’s a really good team right there.

  61. DaddyRich

    136 rama says:
    January 15, 2011 at 6:18 pm
    Daddy –

    Indiana has said that Granger is untouchable. I don’t think they’d touch him for Gallo.

    I had read in the last few weeks the the Pacers had said Granger could be trade or maybe it was all just rummer

  62. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I’m very serious. He was “The Man” in Phoenix too, so why has his shooting diminished so much? 3 usage points can’t be to blame… This team’s success should be attributed to Landry Fields. The level of production they’re getting from that kid at his position is simply outrageous. (And I really don’t care how he gets his points so long as he gets them.)

  63. KnickInSeattle

    Landry Fields is a great player, thcj, no doubt about it. He’s almost always in the right spot and he gives 100% all the time.

    It’s difficult to think of Ama’re as a disappointment, however, if you watch the games. He’s far from perfect, but his presence, his level of effort, his unwillingness to adapt to what was a losing culture and, yes, his scoring (all but one of which cannot be accurately or usefully quantified) are a tremendous asset to this team.

    The advanced statistics certainly describe a lot of what has happened on the court and offer a lot of different ways to view player performance.

    What they don’t do, however, is capture the entirety of a player’s effect on a team or a game or even a possession. That part of the world around us which is quantifiable is significant, of course, but it is in fact only a part.

    More than that, I’m a little surprised that you are disappointed. Your expectations for him this summer…based no doubt on a statistical analysis of his career up to that point, the presence of Nash, the injuries, etc…were very low. (And of course the knees could still be a problem). He’s certainly done better than you expected him to…or at least better than how you described your expectations here.

    So he has so far this season exceeded your expectations and yet is still a disappointment?

  64. Robert Silverman

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: I’m very serious. He was “The Man” in Phoenix too, so why has his shooting diminished so much? 3 usage points can’t be to blame… This team’s success should be attributed to Landry Fields. The level of production they’re getting from that kid at his position is simply outrageous. (And I really don’t care how he gets his points so long as he gets them.)  

    B/c as good as Felton has been, Nash was/is way better at the PnR. Amare’s scored off the dribble/in ISO’s WAY more this year than last year. (He’s stopped hitting the 15-18 footer the last 3-4 games, which has led to some ugly lines recently.) Stat’s just had to do a lot more himself this year. In fact, he’s been BETTER than in Phoenix at those things (jumpshot, scoring in the post), it’s just he doesn’t have Nash getting him as many layups/dunks.

  65. TheRant

    I’m going to crowd source this one:

    After the MLK day game on Monday versus the Suns, I’ve been granted audience with the very Landriest of them all. A group of us will get to meet him and talk. So…..

    If you could ask a question of Landry Fields, what would you ask?

  66. bluemax

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: I’m very serious. He was “The Man” in Phoenix too, so why has his shooting diminished so much? 3 usage points can’t be to blame… This team’s success should be attributed to Landry Fields. The level of production they’re getting from that kid at his position is simply outrageous. (And I really don’t care how he gets his points so long as he gets them.)  

    Just wondering what everybody’s TS% is when Amare is out of the line up. My guess would be well below average, including Fields’. Amare’s lower offensive effiviency simply reflects the fact that he is playing without Nash. Call it the “sans Nash” effect. Felton has been great but he simply is not Nash on the offensive side of the floor.

  67. Robert Silverman

    TheRant: I’m going to crowd source this one:After the MLK day game on Monday versus the Suns, I’ve been granted audience with the very Landriest of them all.A group of us will get to meet him and talk.So…..If you could ask a question of Landry Fields, what would you ask?  

    Very nice! How about: “Landry, your Landry has been extremely Landry this Landry. What about your Landry makes it the Landriest?”

    Better yet, “When does ‘The Andy and Landry Show premiere?

  68. Z

    TheRant: “…..If you could ask a question of Landry Fields, what would you ask?  

    Some suggestions:

    “How did it feel on draft night when John Wall was selected before you?”

    “Where did you get the Invisibility Cloak that you wore when you played college ball?”

    “Were you born smart, or did you have to learn to be smart just to fit in at Stanford?”

    “How cool is it to be the coolest person in the world?”

  69. JK47

    This team’s success should be attributed to Landry Fields. The level of production they’re getting from that kid at his position is simply outrageous.

    Landry is a nice player, and filled a gaping hole at SG. Great pick in the 2nd round, great asset for the future.

    But to say he’s the reason for the team’s success… I dunno. Out of the eight guys who are the real rotation players on the team, Landry is 6th in PER and 7th in WS/48. He has the outstanding .606 TS%, but with a really low 13.4 usage rate. He’s good, but even the most Landry Fields-friendly stat, WS/48, pegs him as the 5th-best starter on the team.

    No question, he is one of the reasons for the team’s success, but he is not THE reason.

  70. Robert Silverman

    JK47: This team’s success should be attributed to Landry Fields. The level of production they’re getting from that kid at his position is simply outrageous.Landry is a nice player, and filled a gaping hole at SG.Great pick in the 2nd round, great asset for the future.But to say he’s the reason for the team’s success… I dunno.Out of the eight guys who are the real rotation players on the team, Landry is 6th in PER and 7th in WS/48.He has the outstanding .606 TS%, but with a really low 13.4 usage rate.He’s good, but even the most Landry Fields-friendly stat, WS/48, pegs him as the 5th-best starter on the team.No question, he is one of the reasons for the team’s success, but he is not THE reason.  

    Wages of Wins/Berri has him as the best player on the Nix and the 13th best player in the NBA. But yeah, Berri’s stats are problematic. He’s a very efficient player, has intangibles to boot, and is a far better spot-up shooter than anyone imagined. But the t player on the team? Nope. He can’t create off the dribble and his mid-range game is non-existent. The good news is, these are things he can work on. If y’all recall, David Lee shot 57% from the FT line as a rook and couldn’t hit an outside shot to save his life.

  71. latke

    Cock Jowles – Fields’ WP/48 is down quite a bit from when Berri first started raving about him. At that point, his WP/48 was .347. It is now at .289.

    Realistically speaking though, why is it that so many bench players have such good WP/48? Examples (players w/ 200+ MP): Jeremy Evans (#3 in WP/48), Foster (#18), Dorsey (#25), Brewer (#31), C. Andersen (#35)? Is it because coaches are bad at evaluating talent, or is it because WP doesn’t tell the whole story?

    Perhaps the better question is would the lakers be better off trading Kobe for Landry Fields? Fields is a significant improvement according to WP. Or should Dallas trade Nowitzki for Kris Humphries?

    They shouldn’t, and that’s because WP overlooks the dynamics of a team. If you took Iverson off of that 2001 76ers (his WP/48 that year: .076) and replaced him with the 2001 edition of John Stockton (#1 in WP) they would not be a very good team. Why? Because as good as Stockton was, he would have had no one to pass to. AI’s ability to get a decent shot off despite entire defenses being geared around stopping him allowed the 6ers to give big minutes to bad offensive players.

    I’m not saying WP is a bad metric. I’m just saying it doesn’t tell the whole story, especially when it comes to volume shooters. Defenses have a certain amount of energy they can expend, and they can choose what proportion to focus on each player. I think we have every reason to believe that were ‘Melo on a team with 4 offensive threats around him, not only would his TS% improve, but he would improve the TS% of his teammates. It takes more of the defense’s focus to stop ‘Melo than to stop Gallo. This is contingent on Melo adjusting his game. If he continues to take the same shots he takes in Denver, it will hurt NY. Furthermore, there are the questions of team needs and the costs to acquire ‘Melo both in our current roster and future prospects. These to me are enough to make the acquisition of ‘melo a questionable…

  72. jon abbey

    yeah, it’s to the point now where if people cite Dave Berri seriously, I stop taking them seriously. the largely departed Owen may be the only exception to this, I miss that dude.

  73. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Ask him if he knew that the posters on Knickerblogger knew he was going to be a stud before a couple dozen NBA GMs did. Or just ask him if he reads Knickerblogger, where there’s nary a bad word spoken about him.

    I think the issue with Berri tends to be 1) the shortcomings of defensive stat-keeping and 2) his positivistic notion of truth in statistics that holds that value can be verified, and despite its position relative to the subjectively-constructed “consensus,” the math tells the story more accurately. I can see why this is unbelievably frustrating to most hardcore basketball fans. Berri talks a bit about how people sometimes use a multitude of stats that more accurately align with their subjectively-formed beliefs about player value:

    http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/there-is-not-much-difference-between-danny-granger-and-kobe-bryant/

    But still, the defensive shortcomings of WoW are still extant. Berri’s never claimed to have a perfect model; he’s just got one that is much, much closer than the alternatives in predicting wins.

  74. daJudge

    Commenting on HCJ, 153(2)— Isn’t it possible that when a seasoned hoop fan assesses players, they are actually utilizing lots of metrics at the same time? Maybe some that we haven’t even thought of as yet. Just like when we make judgments every day. At least with some, maybe our intellect rounds off the metrics in highly sophisticated ways and then adds layers of insight and experiential information that escape strictly mathematical approaches. I’m not anti-stat at all, but sometimes not only do they not tell the whole story, but the conclusions drawn therefrom sometimes border on the absurd–at least to me.

    I would be very interested in Landry’s hobbies, youth and family background.

  75. Thomas B.

    http://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/more-on-the-evaluation-of-amare-stoudemire-and-landry-fields/

    Whatever Berri says, you troglodytes better line up and obey. Berri is flawless, his metrics are flawless. I just got home from Sunday morning mass at Our Lady of the Flawless Metric. It went something like this.

    Call: May Berri be with you.
    Response: And also with you.

    Call: Berri has taught us that scoring is overvalued.
    Response: May PER never corrupt our souls.

    Pastor: Let us now read from the book of Dave 3:16:
    “And God so loved the world that he gave us Berri’s advanced metrics and whomever shall believe in these metrics shall never PERish but have everlasting advance statistical relevance.”

    Now, go in peace my brethren.

  76. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    daJudge: Commenting on HCJ, 153(2)— Isn’t it possible that when a seasoned hoop fan assesses players, they are actually utilizing lots of metrics at the same time?

    No. The idea is that using a number of metrics at the same time only leads to choosing which metrics best suit our subjectively-formed opinions of a player. Like saying, “Well, it says here that Melo shoots around league average TS%, but that can’t be right. Melo is an outstanding shooter. PER says so.”

    The human brain (outside of a few savants, here and there) is not able to compartmentalize and interpret data as precisely as computers can. In baseball, there’s no way for a person to tell the difference between a guy hitting .350 and a guy hitting .300. That’s 1 hit out of every 20 at-bats. Simply impossible. In basketball, same applies to shooting percentage. A player at .60 TS% looks an awful lot like a player at .55, but the impact on wins is enormous. Y’know, a lot of people balked at the idea that batting average and win total and saves weren’t that important in baseball. It wasn’t until this year that award voters showed a sign that they weren’t swayed by the influence of meaningless stats. As I see it, it’s just a matter of time before basketball catches up.

  77. daJudge

    Very interesting discussion here, at least for me (as the crowd thins out). Of course computers measure data very precisely, but a computerized result is dependent for the most part on what is fed in and the analytic program that is applied. So perhaps the results are somewhat abstract because many elements are left out and the program is created.

    It’s easy to calculate batting average, but calculating Jeter’s value is a whole n’other ballgame. This is just an example, but I guess I would apply the same concept to STAT. This kind of goes to the disappointment issue you raised earlier. Are you disappointed in Amare’s numbers or his game? I think the two positions are actually compatible. The difference between them illustrates my point.

  78. Nick C.

    Ask Landry about rebounding from the guard position and finding the open space on the floor. .was he always able to do these? Coaching instructions? Or and this is delicate doing. Something necessary that he sees nobody else in the club doing?

  79. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I’m disappointed in his shooting, particularly in shot selection. He is the anti-Landry Fields in that regard.

    http://www.82games.com/0910/09PHO11.HTM

    http://www.82games.com/1011/10NYK12.HTM

    He’s increased jump shots attempted by about 33% (from 51% to 65%) and halved his dunk attempts (16% to 8%). That’s pretty damn significant. Even though he’s hitting his jumpers at almost the same rate, it’s his shot selection — not an adjustment in his shot or some kind of kink in his game — that’s leading to his decreased efficiency.

    I will say that his passing rating and ‘hands’ rating have increased, and the doubling of his block percentage is a fantastic thing to see. But that doesn’t make the drop-off in efficiency palatable.

    Also, if you look at the player/opponent charts, you’ll see that regardless of whether he’s playing PF or C, he’s getting smoked in eFG%. He’s giving up -0.063 eFG% to PFs and -0.040 to Cs. Of course, this is more of a team issue than anything, but we’re not looking at a Dwight Howard type player here — and they make the same salary.

  80. Z-man

    Landry Fields is a very nice find and a very solid player, but I would caution against getting carried way. He is still a rookie that makes his share of rookie mistakes and has his share of limitations. The majority of his points are opportunistic 3′s and put-backs. He has admirably filled in a gaping hole we had at the 2. Right now, though, he is benefiting tremendously from his situation and system, where is usage rate is among the lowest of all SGs in the league. I honestly think that he is more of a second small forward than a shooting guard anyway because he has a high rebound rate and a low assist rate and is a below average FT shooter for a guard. He happens to be on a team that needs rebounding out of that position, so it’s a perfect fit.

  81. Ben R

    Even if you buy in 100% to Berri’s argument about stats vs observation his metric it still is quite flawed.

    In the same way PER rewards usage, shoot more and your PER goes up regardless of efficiency, in WOW shoot more and wins produced will go down regardless of efficiency. WOW does not take usage into acount when factoring in turnovers so players with very high usages get punished by their turnovers even if their turnover rate is very low, where players with very low usages even with high turnover rates get rewarded. Because of this even if a player is turning the ball over a lower than average rate and scoring at a well above average efficiency if he doubles his usage even if his turnover rate doesn’t go up and his efficiency doesn’t go down his wins produced in wow will decrease.

    WOW also overrewards rebounding. Possessions gained is very important in WOW, and WOW looks at a rebound as a possession gained. So getting a rebound is equal to getting a steal and the opposite as commiting a turnover. However unlike getting a steal and commiting a turnover when player A gets a rebound he is not always taking it away from the other team sometimes if player A fails to get the rebound player B on his own team might get it instead. This is why two elite rebounders on the same team see their rebound numbers decrease when playing next to each other.

  82. Robert Silverman

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: I’m disappointed in his shooting, particularly in shot selection. He is the anti-Landry Fields in that regard.
    http://www.82games.com/0910/09PHO11.HTMhttp://www.82games.com/1011/10NYK12.HTMHe’s increased jump shots attempted by about 33% (from 51% to 65%) and halved his dunk attempts (16% to 8%). That’s pretty damn significant. Even though he’s hitting his jumpers at almost the same rate, it’s his shot selection — not an adjustment in his shot or some kind of kink in his game — that’s leading to his decreased efficiency.I will say that his passing rating and ‘hands’ rating have increased, and the doubling of his block percentage is a fantastic thing to see. But that doesn’t make the drop-off in efficiency palatable.
    Also, if you look at the player/opponent charts, you’ll see that regardless of whether he’s playing PF or C, he’s getting smoked in eFG%. He’s giving up -0.063 eFG% to PFs and -0.040 to Cs. Of course, this is more of a team issue than anything, but we’re not looking at a Dwight Howard type player here — and they make the same salary.  

    It’s not HIS shot selection. It’s not like he’s saying, “I’d love to dunk here, but I’d rather take a contested 15-footer.” His jumpers are up/shooting #’s down across the board b/c he’s playing with Felton (I’m not trashing Felt — He’s been great — but doesn’t have Nash’s court vision. He’s a much better defender and [b/c I'm bored of the 'pitbull' metaphors] has the heart of a lion) and not Steve Nash.

    It’s not that Stat 2010-11 isn’t as good as Stat ’2004-09. I’d argue that Amar’e has been better at getting his own shot/scoring on post-ups than we (or at least I) thought coming into the…

  83. Z-man

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: He’s classified as an 80/20 SG/SF by WP/48.  

    Someone has to be put in the SG position, and when he’s on the floor its usually him. I think at times they go with a small alignment of Fiedls, TD and Felton. My point is that even when he is playing SG, he plays more like a SF, particularly on offense.

  84. Z-man

    Robert Silverman:
    It’s not HIS shot selection. It’s not like he’s saying, “I’d love to dunk here, but I’d rather take a contested 15-footer.”His jumpers are up/shooting #’s down across the board b/c he’s playing with Felton (I’m not trashing Felt — He’s been great — but doesn’t have Nash’s court vision. He’s a much better defender and [b/c I'm bored of the 'pitbull' metaphors] has the heart of a lion) and not Steve Nash.
    It’s not that Stat 2010-11 isn’t as good as Stat ’2004-09. I’d argue that Amar’e has been better at getting his own shot/scoring on post-ups than we (or at least I) thought coming into the…  

    I also think that the fact that his assists are up substantially indicates that defenses are focusing on him more and he has more opportunities to find open guys. It’s when he forces the issue on double-teams that his shooting % goes down. Nash is a better passer than Felton, but even more importantly, Nash is a much better scorer than Felton, so leaving him on the PnR or dropping off to cheat on Amar’e was less likely. Nash definitely did not drop the ball in to a stationary Amar’e on the high post as much as Felton does, so Amar’e has to work harder for his baskets.

    Not to compare the two situations, but wasn’t it around this time during Duhon’s first year that the PnR stopped working and Duhon’s shooting numbers crashed through the floor? Weren’t we concerned that Duhon would start breaking down due to overuse (really, a refusal to use Steph)? If you look at Felton’s splits, his shooting % and 3pt % are both down in January, and December wasn’t great either. Just wondering if anyone else out there is concerned about a pattern…

  85. cgreene

    I think we are actually seeing the merits if PER vs WOW debated in good context here.

    Those who are on the side that Amare’s positive impact on the team is measured by the fact that he is taking more difficult shots which is effecting HIS eFG and TS to the negative but his TEAMMATES’ efficiency is benefiting from the way defenses set up to guard him plus his dramatically improved ast% and increased usg would seem to fall on the side that PER is the better metric and increased usg does directly correlate to the value of the player (i.e. better players are more involved with more of their team’s plays). Those here like THCJ who think that efficiency and possessions created are more indicative of a player’s effect on wins side more with Berri and WOW.

    Anecdotally if you compare Dwayne Wade and Landry Fields from an efficiency perspective they look like similar players (Wade with a much higher ast% being the only remarkable difference) but when you watch the game and the defense closes out hard on Fields when he gets the ball on a kickout and he fakes and goes around the closer into the teeth of the defense he has a very difficult time turning that momentum into a high % play at the rim (the majority of his plays at the rim come off back door or o rebs) whereas Wade in the same situation generally tends to make something positive happen at the rim either scoring, getting to the line or making a pass leading to an easy score. This is a major difference. And although Landry doesn’t make mistakes in these situations his impact is dramatically less than that of Wade. IMO WOW does not account for that and PER does. Hoping this example bridges the gap between those who like to use eye test vs those who use stats to understand these issues also.

  86. Ben R

    Robert – It’s true that Amare is not getting as many easy looks off of passes from the PG this year but he has also seen his usage increase which has hurt his shot selection:

    10-11:
    Total shots:
    19.2 FGA – 52.6% efg%
    Inside shots:
    6.7 FGA – 65.7% efg%
    Ouside shots:
    12.5 FGA – 45.4% efg%

    09-10
    Total shots:
    15.4 FGA – 55.7% efg%
    Inside shots:
    7.6 FGA – 66.9% efg%
    Outside shots:
    7.9 FGA – 45.2% efg%

    As you can see he is actually only shooting 0.9 fewer inside shots a game this year. Also his efficiency both inside and outside are almost identical. The big change is the 4.6 additional outside shots that Amare is taking. So Amare’s decrease in efficiency is mostly due to his increase in outside shots rather than his decrease in inside shots. That seems to me like forcing the issue. If he was shooting the same number of outside shots as last year his efg% would be 54.8% which is alot closer to last years 55.7% even with the 0.9 fewer inside shots.

  87. Thomas B.

    Ben R: Even if you buy in 100% to Berri’s argument about stats vs observation his metric it still is quite flawed.

    Blasphemy!

  88. latke

    Good points by Z-man, cgreen and Ben R, although in regard to z-man’s comparison between Duhon and Felton, if you compare both their per-36 #s pre-NYK, Felton was better in all ways except 3pt%.

    I’m curious, which of these players, assuming they all came at the price of one knicks starter of your choice and all had the same contracts, would you most like to see on the knicks?

    Nene
    Kevin Martin
    Carmelo Anthony
    Josh Smith
    Stephen Curry

  89. Veal Scalabrine

    @169: I think you make a good point, and I also cringe at times when Amare forces the issue on iso’s starting 15-19 ft. away on the elbow. However, I’ve noticed a interesting two-man dynamic developing developing between Amar’e and Fields in the last several games from that same iso set, where as soon as Amare gets the ball on the elbow off a curl (or a well-defended PnR), Fields goes back door or cuts along the baseline, and Amar’e finds him for the automatic layup (presumably because the paint defender vacates the basket area to flash a double-team on Amar’e).

    I’m pretty sure three of Amare’s assists in the Sacto game occurred on this type of play–about the Knicks’ ONLY fluid execution on offense that night. Amar’e/Fields have made precisely this play at least once every game since the Spurs contest. Now, Amare and Fields should obviously try to milk this play for all-it’s-worth, but I think it suggests that off-ball movement in this iso set may produce better results than players simply standing around and spacing the floor to allow Amar’e room to create.

    Going forward, I’d love to see Gallo/Chandler follow Fields’ example and do more cutting/curling once Amar’e faces the basket. Amar’e has shown he can make the pass to players who move proactively to find better looks. This could be effective in reducing Amare’s outside-shot volume while increasing shot opportunities around the basket. The only difference in this scenario is that Amar’e is the facilitator. When there’s little or no off-the-ball movement on iso sets, it becomes harder to criticize Amare for putting the whole possession on his shoulders and trying to create in traffic. Just an observation/thought . . . .

  90. Veal Scalabrine

    @171: In this hypothetical, it’s hard not to want to take Nene (assuming, of course, we resign Chandler). However, Kevin Martin would be my choice. One of the most overlooked players in the game, Martin has a chance to become the first NBA player to lead the league in BOTH FT-makes and 3-point makes. He’s a wet-dream for those who prize efficiency over all else, yet he has the mentality/fortitude to be THE GUY at the end of games. Though he obviously would not solve our rebounding woes, Martin would deliver “All-Star” perfomance while fitting seamlessly into D’antoni’s system. Our offense would be virtually unstoppable, and I think barring major injury, of course) we’d win 55-60 games; they would just be of the 125-115 variety!

  91. Ben R

    @ 173: I would actually rather have Curry than Martin. Martin is 5 years older and injury prone. Also Curry can play both the 1 and the 2 so he could play in the backcourt next to Felton or next to Fields. Neither are great defenders but Martin has a reputation as one of the worst defenders in the nba, so Curry has the edge there.

    @171: I think Curry, like Smith is untouchable and Martin would be reallly hard to get considering how he is playing this year. So that leaves Melo vs Nene and I would rather have Nene.

    @172: I like the passing Amare does out of the high elbow and I would love to see more cuts from Gallo and Chandler, but I would like to see him pass back out if he cannot get to the basket or get an assist rather than settle for an 18-20 foot jumper.

  92. Robert Silverman

    Ben R:The big change is the 4.6 additional outside shots that Amare is taking. So Amare’s decrease in efficiency is mostly due to his increase in outside shots rather than his decrease in inside shots. That seems to me like forcing the issue. If he was shooting the same number of outside shots as last year his efg% would be 54.8% which is alot closer to last years 55.7% even with the 0.9 fewer inside shots.  

    Right, but why is he taking more outside shots? B/c teams are still packing the lane and wholly keying on Stat. If Nash was the Nix PG (To be clear, I’m NOT advocating for a Felton for Nash trade), opposing teams wouldn’t dare do that, b/c Nash is a far superior offensive player to Felton. It’s not that Stat’s “forcing the issue.” it’s just that the easy shots at the rim aren’t there.

  93. Robert Silverman

    Now you could say that Stat should take fewer outside shots, but I still prefer Stat on ISO’s/posts over any other Knick with the game on the line.

    It’s why I’m slowly creeping over to the “Get Melo” camp

  94. cgreene

    Robert Silverman: Now you could say that Stat should take fewer outside shots, but I still prefer Stat on ISO’s/posts over any other Knick with the game on the line.It’s why I’m slowly creeping over to the “Get Melo” camp  

    one would think that if a majority of those semi open elbow to 18 ft jumpers were being taken by Melo that (a) he would hit them at a very good rate and (b) it would dramatically open up the middle for STAT and for Ray to create. Plus we help our rebounding with Melo over both Chandler and Gallo. I think Fields could also become a 40% 3 pt shooter who would stand to get a LOT of open looks with Melo and STAT on the court and he’s a guy who doesn’t need the ball to be effective and he would fit better with Ray, Melo, Stat than either Chandler or Gallo.

    Ergo, I am also moving in the get Melo direction and I am thinking that you package Gallo and Chandler plus Curry plus Randolph/pick and some other poo poo platter so you can take more salary off Denver which is a requirement. The main strategy is keeping Fields.
    Something clean and simple like this http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

    Any takers out there?

  95. bbbb00123

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4b4hpzh

    We get kevin martin, who’s a total beast statistically.
    Run a lineup of something like….
    1.Felton
    2.Martin
    3.Fields
    4.Chandler
    5.Amare

    With Shawne, Turiaf, And Walker off the bench. The only real missing link is a backup pointguard. Fields can take time at SG, Shawne and Walker cover both forward positions, and Turiaf at C. I think it would work well.
    Also, Houston does it because they get to pick up Gallinari, Douglas, and Randolph, who could also be viewed as a draftpick instead. Plus, they eddy curry’s contract is 2 years shorter than Martins, giving them more future flexibility.

  96. Z

    @155 Nice to have a little classic Thomas B. On a Sunday morning :)

    @171 All things equal, I’ll take Steph Curry. Age is on his side.

    @173 Kevin Martin may be an advanced statistician’s wet dream, but he’s always the “best player on a bad team”, and his defense, from all indications, is atrocious. Here is his defensive resume from 2009, taken from a Mercury News article naming Martin the worst defensive player in the NBA: “Kings’ opponents scored an NBA-high 118.1 points per 100 possessions when Martin was on the floor, which dropped to 113.6 when he was on the bench. Also, opponents shot 53.5% EFG when he played and 51.7% when he didn’t…he had only 8 blocks in 1,947 minutes; he had a -246 plus/minus, which gave him a worse per-minute rate than almost every other Kings regular (and Martin’s supposed to be their best player); Martin scored a lot but whenever he was matched against a tough wing opponent, that guy usually scored more, at a higher shooting percentage.”

  97. cgreene

    Robert Silverman: This one I’d do. http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4o68stt (plus the Nix 2014 unprotected 1st and 3 million cablevisions) Moz/Walker contracts are unguaranteed after this season. Saves Denver Money, they get 4 young players)Lineup
    Felton
    Fields
    Melo
    Stat
    TuriafBench
    Gallo
    Williams
    Carter
    Birdman  

    I would do it. Don’t think Denver bites on that. Too much poo poo and not enough platter although they get some nice savings.

  98. BahamaKnick

    Hi there!

    Longtime Knicks fan in the Bahamas (pretty sure not as long as most of you guys) and this is my first post not just here but ANYWHERE. I’ve been following this blog religiously since the summer and let me say you are some of the most intelligent and respectable posters I have ever seen. While I may be a nerd when it comes to regular stats I am still getting used to “advanced stats” and I really enjoy the concept.

    I’ve always been in the get Melo camp (I’m a big fan) and while he may not fill an apparent need I dont think you can pass on an opportunity to add talent like his. Like some posters have stated they would like to have Melo but the price tag may be too high I disagree, cap space was created to spend on superstars (not that you should use it now or foolishly) but who else is out there? Who will contribute right away and wants to play in New York? I love Gallo (he is my favorite Knick) I love Chandler and I really love Fields. Like a few have suggested I would trade two of the three of them for Melo preferably keeping Fields. Melo would be replacing Gallo anyway and there is a 50/50 chance we lose Chandler in the off season.

    My reasons for getting Melo

    1. He is a proven one on one scorer who doesnt need anyone to get him the ball like Amare does
    2. He allows BOTH Amare and Felton to play less minutes (kind of like how Miami rotates Lebron and Wade) Carmelo can keep us in the game with Toney Douglas on the court
    3. I believe he will attract other ‘star’ players
    4. He will create more opportunities for Amare and our shooters
    5. I like Turiaf, Mosgov and Amare at center especially in this system has coach ever used a traditional center in this offense?
    6. Our game plan revolves around offense and Melo=offense
    7. He doesnt have to improve only adjust
    8. Injuries

    I had more reasons but I don’t want my first post to be my last and since I didnt supply any stats I hope it will be taken seriously.

    Sorry for the too…

  99. SeeWhyDee77

    latke:I’m curious, which of these players, assuming they all came at the price of one knicks starter of your choice and all had the same contracts, would you most like to see on the knicks?
    Nene
    Kevin Martin
    Carmelo Anthony
    Josh Smith
    Stephen Curry  

    OK this is gonna make me look crazier than normal…Kevin Martin. I know..I’m a stickler for Defense which Martin plays NONE of. But here’s my rationale. I really like what Turi brings to the team, if we can get him at a consistent 20 mpg off the bench. Now I realize that I can pick any of the starters whether they play the same position as the hypothetical replacement or not…but I don’t think Turi’s a big we can afford to lose. That said, I think Nene is seriously overrated. Decent big, but I’m not enthused with his rebounding or post defense. Given the relative ease the team still scores with with Turi out there, I don’t think we would need Nene. Josh Smith and Stat play the same position, so that rules out Smith for me though I would LOVE to have him on the roster. Melo…well Chandler plays better D and i’m really comfortable with the price of the Rooster/Chandler dynamic as long as they keep developing which is more likely than Melo skyrocketing upward since they are younger. I would NOT trade Felton for Curry at this point even though I think Curry would be amazing at the 1 in NY. Which leads me to Martin. Martin gets his points from within the offense and is a dead eye shooter who always gives Stat the space he needs. Teams aren’t so scared of our shooters when Rooster isn’t out there. So for me, Martin’s the better fit and the most logical out of the group to plug in. Ask me again in a week and I will problee say Curry tho lol..unless we find a back up to give Felton some rest.

  100. nicos

    latke: I’m curious, which of these players, assuming they all came at the price of one knicks starter of your choice and all had the same contracts, would you most like to see on the knicks?
    Nene
    Kevin Martin
    Carmelo Anthony
    Josh Smith
    Stephen Curry  

    Probably Curry- Nene is ultra efficient around the basket but with Stat already here I’d prefer a better rebounder and someone better from 17ft at the center. I like Josh Smith but think he’d drift back out towards the perimeter in this system which wouldn’t be a good thing at all. Martin plays no D and does require some help in terms of off-the-ball screens to optimize his efficiency (something D’A doesn’t like to do too much of)- he’d be great as the designated kick-out guy but I don’t think it’d put the Knicks over the top.
    So for me it comes down to Carmelo vs. Curry. Curry would probably start at the 2 so we’d lose Fields rebounding but gain shooting/passing/ballhandling and having another guy who can both hit the 3 and initiate the P & R waiting on the weak side would be really deadly. While Curry’s not a great defender he does pick up a good number of steals so maybe it’d get the Knicks out in transition a little more. For me the whole Carmelo deal comes down to this- do you think he can play the two man game with Amar’e (i.e. initiate the P & R)? He’d certainly be better at it than Chandler or Gallo- he’s a better ballhandler, passer, and mid-range shooter than either of those guys but personally, I haven’t seen him make enough good passes in the paint to believe he could do it on a consistent basis. Do I think Melo could be effective playing off of the ball? Sure, but not much more than any of our other options- If you’re bringing Carmelo here it’s to play the role LBJ would have played and I’m sure he can do it.

  101. Z-man

    I’m not so sure I would give up Fields for Curry just yet. Let’s see what Fields does over the summer.

  102. John Kenney

    I think something that I would like to see examined more in this discussion is why Carmelo shoots a low percentage, thus making him “inefficient” and supposedly a poor complement to our team. Commentators consistently rave about the mechanics of Melo’s jump shot. It appears incredibly smooth, especially for someone of his height. So why is it that he misses so often?
    The answer is not only that Carmelo loves the long 2-pointer, but also loves the contested long 2-pointer. How many times does he pull up over a defender right in his face a step inside the 3 point line? I can’t imagine how frustrating it must be to be a Nuggets fan when he takes that shot. The thought of that shot is what scares me away from wanting him on our team. Except…
    Do we believe shot selection could be improved by joining our team? Do we believe D’Antoni, a coach notoriously in favor of shooting early and often, could at least convince Carmelo to take less contested long twos? Could playing alongside Amar’e (more feared as a scorer than anyone currently on the Nuggets) give Anthony more open shots? Because I believe what the commentators are saying about the mechanics of his jump shot. To the eyes, he appears like a player who should be an effective scorer. The fact that his low efficiency is due (in my eyes) primarily to shot selection, and not actual ability, is a reason for hope.
    Yes, I will say that all the arguments we’re making that Amar’e will relieve some of the defensive attention from Carmelo sound like arguments which could have been made as to how Iverson and Anthony would play well together (which obviously didn’t work.)But I’m reminded of this DBerri column during the FIBA’s before the Redeem team- http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/08/26/thoughts-on-team-usa-after-the-preliminaries/
    Carmelo upped his game in the preliminaries substantially when surrounded by good players. He played well again at the Olympics. Do we think our supporting cast is better than the Nuggets?

  103. jon abbey

    Iverson was already cooked when he got to Denver, so while people did talk about that at the time, it had no chance from the getgo.

  104. Brian Cronin

    I found this quote amusing…

    The Nets are unwilling to complete a trade for Anthony unless the 26-year-old agrees to sign a three-year, $65 million contract extension as part of the transaction in what is known as an extend-and-trade.

    I just love the fact that they feel that they have to come up with a term for it. How could people possibly understand it otherwise?!?

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