jon abbey: what “clutch” should mean is that an athlete performs better in pressure situations than they do otherwise. Robert Horry and Derek Fisher are good examples.
every athlete is a different case, some turn a corner and figure things out mid-career, finally triumphing over their mental issues (A-Rod for instance). LeBron’s case is one where he was superclutch his whole career until whatever happened in that Celtics series last year, and it seems like he still hasn’t fully recovered from that and now the rest of the league is sensing his vulnerability (this is a guy in contention for his third straight MVP).
someday the real story of what went down on that Cavs team will come out (I personally believe the Delonte sleeping with LeBron’s mom to get revenge on LeBron sleeping with his wife, and Shaq telling LeBron before game 3 story), and then I think we’ll understand this period in his career a lot better.  

And I’m the one heading into “wacko territory”? :-D

every athlete is a different case, some turn a corner and figure things out mid-career, finally triumphing over their mental issues (A-Rod for instance). LeBron’s case is one where he was superclutch his whole career until whatever happened in that Celtics series last year, and it seems like he still hasn’t fully recovered from that and now the rest of the league is sensing his vulnerability (this is a guy in contention for his third straight MVP).

someday the real story of what went down on that Cavs team will come out (I personally believe the Delonte sleeping with LeBron’s mom to get revenge on LeBron sleeping with his wife, and Shaq telling LeBron before game 3 story), and then I think we’ll understand this period in his career a lot better.

Clutch, as used by sports pundits, is defined as “how the player last performed at clutch time.” For instance LeBron James is no longer clutch. However he was “super-clutch” in 2009. (Zach also referenced Steve Young & Derek Lowe).

Similarly a team “needs time to gel” anytime they perform poorly post trade. Last night the Knicks didn’t need any time to gel, but they’ve had games where “gel” didn’t come into play.

In both cases you only know after the fact.

But really most importantly, even if it does exist (I’ll admit that it might much faster than most will admit that it might now) you can’t tell. I could posit that the ghost of Max Zaslofsky has haunted the team since the 80s. When the team losses it’s Zaslofsky. When it wins, Zaslofsky was taking the night off.

Concerning “gel”, when the Knicks lose is it:

A. Gelling
B. Better Opponent
C. Random Chance
D. The Food They Ate
E. How Comfortable They Slept
F. Who Has Sick Kids

I’d go with B & C, and then flip a coin between A, D, E, and F. Honestly I hope to live long enough that teams hire analytic groups to find how D-F affect players. Because at my job those seem to be the big ones.

Think the Lakers would love to have TD now? He would be perfect on that team. He’s 10x the player Derek Fisher is at this stage of their careers.

The Honorable Cock Jowles:
There’s no explanation for shooting 1-18 in “clutch” moments. That looks like a statistical anomaly. I don’t think it has to do with the “gel” theory. Good players play well, and play well together.  

Probably is a statistical anomaly but stats don’t necessarily capture the effect of psyche – in fact stats probably pointedly ignore psyche. But there’s no question that something like it exists in sports. Look at Tiger Woods – dude was unstoppable with a lead for the first 10 years of his career, and now he can’t close anything. (I guess it is possible that he was on PEDs from that guy Galea).

A player’s state of mind seemingly MUST come into play regardless of stats. We’ve all seen guys short-arm free throws in the clutch, or have Chris Webber brain farts when bringing the ball up the floor. 1 for 18 is pretty far out there for a statistical anomaly – probably is reaching statistical significance, considering both Wade and Lebron shoot 50+% from the field.

Re: “good players play well and play well together” — is there really any proof of that? Shaq and Amare are both good players but they were terrible next to each other. I think it’s entirely possible that the sum of guys like Lebron and Wade is less than its parts. Even though Amare and Melo are score 1st, defend 2nd sort of guys, they have very different optimal scoring styles – Melo is more of a ballhandler/create your own shot guy, whereas Amare is much better either as a spot up shooter or getting the ball on the move towards the basket. It’s not quite as similar as DWade and Lebron, who are both “give me the rock at the top of the key and clear out” kind of players.

Brian Cronin: I don’t think Mike’s position is too far off. I think there does need to be a time when we say “okay, they’ve had their time to ‘gel,’ now that is not an excuse anymore.”Mike and I just might differ on how many games it takes to reach that point. I still think it’s closer to 15-17 games before I’m ready to say “this is what they are,” but I agree with the basic idea that the “gel” argument has a time limit on its effectiveness.  

well, of course, I don’t think Miami can use it anymore, but I generally allot 40 games for major core changes and NY certainly qualifies there.