Orlando doesn’t have cap space short-term, but they’re already a strong contender, they can clear cap space in trades, or just make trades with talent. Nothing is guaranteed, but if I were a Magic fan I’d be pretty optimistic looking forward.

rama: Rashard Lewis is killing them.

Not when he’s their 2nd best player. I mean he’s way overpaid and everyone knew it when they signed him, but he’s been the 2nd best player on a strong contender.

rama: I could almost see them both opting out and going to a team that can afford two max deals (like the Knicks) and already have a top tier player on board (like Amare) and a good core (like AR, who we’d resign for Bird rights, and Mozgov, who will still be on the roster and cheap).

I’m hoping something like this can happen, too, but there are some holes in you scenario. Even with bird rights, AR will have a cap hold of around $4.5 mill and Gallo will have one around $6 mill. If you want to keep them and exercise what I believe is an option on Timo… The Knicks do not have room for 2 max contracts (depending on what the new CBA looks like). They would be paying CP3 and Dwight Howard about 1/2 of what they’d be paying Amare and probably about what they’d be paying AR/Gallo. Or they could renounce AR and Gallo and Timo. Still Howard and CP3 might make significantly more money elsewhere. I do not assume, like some seem to, that just because of the Heat stars will suddenly leave 10s of millions on the table and flock to play together… It certainly is possible and a nice dream, though.

I guess one main point is that just as there is an upside to your scenario, there is also a downside. Which is why it’s not so obviously the right decision to me.

rama: he isn’t worth a max deal, because that cost cost prevents you from getting a CP3 or Dwight…which is to say, a max deal for a player who really can take you all the way.  

There are only a few of those guys in the league, though. So if you don’t have one do you just wait around until you win the lottery? Given the odds of landing a Howard or CP3 or LeBron… I would not say that’s an advisable strategy. The upside of passing on a Melo (or Gallo if he develops and hits free agency/extension time) is that you have the flexibility to sign a big fish and might stink badly enough to win the lottery, but the downside is that you stink and have slim odds of even getting a player as good as Melo or Gallo let alone an All-NBA First Team guy… If you’re looking at a strong playoff team, I think you just spend your money and maybe get the chance to trade up later for a real superstar.

Since the Knicks already have Gallo and AR and Amare I’m not looking for them to get Melo, but in other circumstances I might be happy with a deal for him.

My point is that FAs can’t flock to Orlando – they’re capped out for a while; Rashard Lewis is killing them. Considering Dwight has a player option in 2012, as does CP3, I could almost see them both opting out and going to a team that can afford two max deals (like the Knicks) and already have a top tier player on board (like Amare) and a good core (like AR, who we’d resign for Bird rights, and Mozgov, who will still be on the roster and cheap).

Do I think it’ll happen? No, but it could…which speaks to how smart, flexible, and creative Donnie has been in putting this roster together.

As for the whole Melo/Gallo thing, my point there is essentially the same: Melo is not a stiff, but he isn’t James or CP3, who practically alone will take you to the playoffs. So yes, he may already be the best case projection of Gallo – but he isn’t worth a max deal, because that cost cost prevents you from getting a CP3 or Dwight…which is to say, a max deal for a player who really can take you all the way.

Ted Nelson: but I also don’t think he’s the best comparison… but maybe AR proves me wrong.

Not to imply I don’t think AR can be as good as Camby, just that I don’t think he’ll be totally comparable and that I think comparing him to a pure 5 is premature at this point. Not to mention to one of the top rebounders and passing bigs and interior defenders in the NBA over the past 10ish years.
I do see the comparison, though, and am sort of splitting hairs.

rama: Ted – not just because this is a Knicks board, but because Dwight will be one of the most dominant centers of his era whose team never quite got over the hump. HoF…but ringless.

I interpreted the Ewing example to imply a deterioration of the knees, which I guess may have been presumptuous. I don’t know whether Howard will be ringless or not, but I do know that the chances of the Knicks acquiring a better player than him to build around are next to zero. I don’t see why the Knicks look like a better bet in a few years than the Magic. FAs will flock to Orlando and allow the Magic to do miracles if they can clear some space down the road. Howard also cuts into the Heat’s weakness in the same way a Knicks team would.

rama: So, right now our potential bright side strengths cut right into their definite weakness – Amare is already better than Bosh (who isn’t called RuPaul for nothing), and if AR is any facsimile of Camby, and Mozgov learns to stay out of foul trouble, and Gallo really has improved his inside game, we have four 7-footers who would each be difficult to handle in his own way.

That would be really nice. I just don’t think it’s 100% clear that team has a better chance than a team without one of AR/Gallo, but with Melo. He’s not 7-feet, but he’s also not easy to handle.

I also don’t love the Camby comparison for AR… he has more facets to his game, and his strengths are not as pronounced in Camby’s areas of strength. They’re not totally dissimilar, but I also don’t think he’s the best comparison… but maybe AR proves me wrong.

rama: The truth is probably in the middle…but meanwhile, I like the bright side!  

Melo is in the middle, but towards the brighter side of Gallo and AR’s development I’d say. That’s why I think you have to consider him, though I’m also not really in favor of trading for him.

Ted – not just because this is a Knicks board, but because Dwight will be one of the most dominant centers of his era whose team never quite got over the hump. HoF…but ringless. Which is what he’ll be unless he signs elsewhere when his deal is up or Orlando works a miracle with its cap space.

“I don’t want to trade Gallo and AR for Melo, but what gives you the impression that the Knicks can challenge the Heat? Seems pretty optimistic.”

Ted – well, I can be faulted for my optimism, but I am a fan and as such am inclined to look on the bright side. The bright side is this: the main area of weakness for the Heat is at the 5. (And to some degree the 1, but all they really need there is a decent defensive guard who can shoot the 3-ball – a relatively easy skill set to find.) But they do not have a truly dominant player in the middle. Considering what surrounds the 5, that’s not a big deal; they’ll probably still win it all. But they don’t match up well against the Lakers, for example, because Pau and Bynum are a lot to handle inside. So, right now our potential bright side strengths cut right into their definite weakness – Amare is already better than Bosh (who isn’t called RuPaul for nothing), and if AR is any facsimile of Camby, and Mozgov learns to stay out of foul trouble, and Gallo really has improved his inside game, we have four 7-footers who would each be difficult to handle in his own way. Add to that core CP3 in 2012 and we’d have another strength where the Girls are relatively weak (though it’s not as big a deal as the height/power issue inside) — and I think that would make a team that could, maybe even should, beat them.

As said, that’s the bright side. Maybe Gallo never really adds any facets to his game beyond shooting. Maybe AR never adds shooting as a facet to his game. Maybe Mozgov goes home after one year, frustrated by the NBA pace. But assuming any of those negatives seems at best to be only equal to assuming the positives. The truth is probably in the middle…but meanwhile, I like the bright side!

Z: I think that if the Knicks can get a 1st round pick, they can then trade their own (Knicks/Rockets) pick to Denver.

Yeah: “Teams are required to have only a first round pick, and not necessarily their first round pick. So teams may trade away their own future picks in consecutive years if they have another team’s first round pick in one of those years.” http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q74
If the pick the Knicks get is protected, however, I suppose they would also have to protect the pick they were giving away to ensure they had some sort of pick.

Frank O.: a guy who appears only willing to play in NYC.

Frank O.: the Nuggets want to get value for Melo, they will have to play with the Knicks.

Who knows, but I think the Bulls could still be a player from Melo’s perspective and so could a team like the Lakers or Celtics or Magic or Mavs or Rockets if they felt inclined to put together a package. So the bidding probably won’t go as high as if he were more open to signing anywhere, but I also don’t think the Knicks are only bidding against themselves. Also, if the Knicks bid is low enough, some team like the Nets (who offered not only Favors not only Favors and Devin Harris, but Favors, Harris, and a 1st… there’s a lot of room to come down and still offer an attractive package) might still beat it just for one season and the hope of re-signing Melo after the season.

It’s part of the posturing. If they Knicks had a deal that was imminent, we probably wouldn’t have heard anything about the pick.

Hahn also noted again Denver’s reluctance to deal with the Knicks in part because they think the Knicks were tampering…

But with a pick, the Knicks could make a formidable offer for a guy who appears only willing to play in NYC. At some point, if Denver can’t deal him elsewhere because he won’t sign an extension, and the Nuggets want to get value for Melo, they will have to play with the Knicks.
Something is better than nothing. And the Knicks give the Nugs cap flex with Fatty’s expiring contract.

Donnie is playing a smart leverage game. And he may not have to give up both Randolph and Danillo to get him.

d-mar: I also don’t buy the Spurs as the trade partner, why would the Nuggets want their first rounder?  

Hmmm– I think that if the Knicks can get a 1st round pick, they can then trade their own (Knicks/Rockets) pick to Denver. It doesn’t matter how low the acquired pick is, as long as Denver is willing to take the Knicks/Rockets projected pick. Right?

d-mar: I also don’t buy the Spurs as the trade partner, why would the Nuggets want their first rounder?  

The rumors that I’ve seen haven’t really specified that it’s a first rounder the Nuggets want, just that the Knicks can get a first round pick if they need/want to. Anyway, the Spurs 2010 1st rounder was #20… not bad.

Also, though, teams don’t run around handing out 1st round picks that they expect to be high. People expecting the T-Wolves to give away their 1st rounder without a 2nd thought, for example, are crazier than Kahn. The chances are pretty good that whatever picks the Nuggets get are protected.

rama: weak team in 2009 enters 2010 with good low-post scorer (I believe Brand still is that, though he’s no Amare)

Between Speights and Brand they’ve got something, but it’s light-years from Amare scoring wise.

rama: And then we’ll be able to make some real noise and emerge as the true challenger to the Golden Girls as the Celts fade and Dwight transforms into the Pat Ewing of his era.  

I don’t want to trade Gallo and AR for Melo, but what gives you the impression that the Knicks can challenge the Heat? Seems pretty optimistic. And why is Howard the Ewing and not the Hakeem, when he’s clearly the best C in the NBA?